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Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, 2017, 5:2 Page | 47 DOI: https://doi.org/10.20896/saci.v5i2.269 RESEARCH OPEN ACCESS Transformation of Agricultural Land for Urbanisation, Infrastructural Development and Question of Future Food Security: Cases from Parts of Hugli District, West Dr. Giyasuddin Siddique† and Nabanita MukherjeeῘ* Abstract Developing countries of the world encounter urbanisation and infrastructural development in or around the fertile tracts and the absence of any landuse plan for desired landuse change has led to conversion of farmlands, which is detrimental to future food security and environmental quality. Hugli district is traditionally well known as one of the most prosperous agricultural regions of , but the district is experiencing rapid urban extension and infrastructural development towards productive agricultural land since 1991. This has caused decline in the amount of agricultural production, which may be treated as an indicator of increasing threat to the long run sustainable livelihood security of the people of the whole of West Bengal. This article critically explores the transformation of agricultural (farm) land because of growing rate of urbanisation and infrastructural development, which in turn poses the question of threat to food (in) security. Although, this is a growing problem across the universe, this article probes the future food security questions of Hugli district, West Bengal by examining the impact of the highly intertwined indicators of urbanisation and infrastructural development on agricultural (farm) landuse and its effect on food security. Regression Analysis, Spearman’s Ranking Correlation Coefficient, Remote Sensing Technologies, Markov Chain Model, Projection of Future Population Growth, and Yield Rate are employed to understand the depth of the problem. The result not only shows a direct negative correlation between urban extension and agricultural areal contraction but also the supervised classification of satellite imageries shows that there is rapid change of rural landuse from 1996-2016. There is no match between future population growth and future yield rate of crops and the Markov Chain Model further predicts that the cropland will decrease from 62.77% to 42.90% and the built up area will increase from 31.86% to 54.63% of the total area from 2016 to 2056. Keywords: Urbanisation, Infrastructural Development, Landuse Change, Food Security, Sustainable Livelihood, Markov Chain Model, Hugli District, West Bengal

† Professor and Head, Department of Geography, The , West Bengal, Email: [email protected] *Corresponding Author ῘUGC-Junior Research Fellow, Department of Geography, The University of Burdwan, Email: [email protected] © 2017 Siddique and Mukherjee. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 48

Introduction consequence of sudden stuns, for example Urbanisation, as already well established, is the economic or climatic crises or cyclical events shift from a rural to an urban society and such as agricultural seasons. Food safety is involves an increase in the number of connected to the quality of food and the final individuals living in urban areas within a dimension, access to food is related with the specified time (Adesegun et al., 2015; Omer, assets that people or their families possesses to 2016). It is the result of social, economic and obtain food necessitated for a healthy living political advancement that lead to urban (FAO, 2008:1). Thus for people living in urban concentration and emergence of large , zones, access to food is consequent upon the change in landuse and transformation of household’s ability to purchase food. Each of pattern of organisation and governance from these four key facets of food security can be studied in the milieu of urban environment. The rustic to metropolitan system (Ekpenyong, 2015:31) through the development of different decadal growth of population of the study area is 10.59%, the decadal growth of urban forms of infrastructure. The term ‘infrastructure’ is coined by joining ‘infra’ and population is 42.13% and meeting the demand of such a large population will put enormous ‘structure’, which means subordinate parts, substructure or establishment of an endeavour additional pressure on food production system, because the resources required for its (Nayak, 1999: 59). According to the economists of the world, it contains of all those amenities production such as land and water are becoming meagre. The following section and activities, the basic rationale of which is the sustenance, which they provide to income discusses literature that underpins this generation and production (Bajpai, 1995). research. Infrastructures are the very heart of financial Review of Literature and social advancement. There are two aspects Ira Matuschke (2009) in the paper titled ‘Rapid of infrastructure, on one hand, they boost Urbanisation and Food Security: Using Food economic growth, address basic needs, offer Density Maps to Identify Future Food Security mobility and social interaction, and on the Hotspots’ explained the challenges of rapid other hand, they generate environmental urbanisation in developing countries and the pressure (Shilling, 2007: 1). In most cases, impact of rapid urbanisation on four infrastructural development cause dimensions of food security such as availability, transformation of agricultural land, thus both stability, safety and access to food around the urbanisation and infrastructural development world. Using GIS, Matuschke (2009) can be treated as a growing threat to food constructed a food density map of the world to security. ‘Food security’ has been described by identify the future food security hotspots. In a the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation) in similar way, Huang et al., (2009) used remote its World Food Summit in 1996: “food security sensing, GIS techniques to identify the landuse exists when all people, at all times, have change in the peri-urban zones of Taipei, and physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, showed how urbanisation is causing landuse nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and change. They also worked out the impact of the food preferences for an active and healthy life” landuse changes on the global environmental (FAO, 2008: 1). The organisation has recognised change. In the paper titled ‘Urbanisation and Its four key dimensions of food security- Impact on Agricultural Lands in Growing Cities availability, stability, safety and access to food. in Developing Countries: A Case Study of The first measurement is related to the general Tamale in Ghana’, Naab et al., (2013) highlights availability of food in adequate amount. Both not only the landuse planning response to production and supply system of food are urbanisation but also explains its influence on distinctive in rustic and urban setting. Food food (in)security within the context of stability alludes to the access to food at all urbanisation. It also provides vivid information times with no danger of losing access as a

Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 49 on how different policies can be taken to meet yield rate of crops, affecting on the future food the crisis of food security. The findings of this security as well as perceptible pressure on the research bear similarity to the “losses of ecological balance of the region as a whole. agricultural land due to infrastructural Objectives of the research and methodology development on Rajshahi District of are discussed in the following section. Bangladesh” (Islam and Hassn, 2013). Using Objectives and Methodology Remote Sensing and GIS techniques, Islam and Hassn (2013) found out the losses of The key objectives of the present study are: agricultural land due to infrastructural . to assess the rate of urbanisation in the development from 1977-2010. In doing so, they selected parts of Hugli district, not only analysed change detection but also . to examine the extent to which rural predicted on future availability of agricultural landuse is affected by urban extension land. David Satterthwaite, Gordon McGranahan and infrastructural development, and Cecilia Tacoli (2010) seemingly discussed . to probe into the rate of decrease of the impact of urbanisation on food production agricultural land and productivity and and on climate change. Here, they studied the . to estimate the future food security of relations between urban change, food demand the study area and rural urban linkages and introduced the concept of urban agriculture. Urban agriculture The research is based on both primary and or urban farming is an act of cultivating, secondary data. In order to understand the role processing, and distributing food in or around a played by the Public Distribution System (PDS) , town, or . Food security, nutrition, in food security, the primary data has been and income generation are key motivations for collected using random sampling method. For urban agriculture. Earlier in 2002, Acharya et this, 200-structured questionnaire survey was al., studied the impact of urbanisation on conducted amongst the local residents of the sustainable agriculture in Malaysia where they study area to identify the extent to which the discussed about the changes in economic locals are availing the PDS or in actuality, how structure of Malaysia due to urbanisation and much food is available to the people. Secondary its impact on natural resources—urban waste data has been obtained from District Statistical generation, air pollution, water pollution, land Handbook, District Census Handbook of Hugli conversion and species extinction. district from the year 1951-2011 to identify the rate of urbanisation. The increasing per cent of Notwithstanding, food security was previously urban population, the rise of the number of linked with climate change, nutrition, poverty Census Towns are calculated between the and several other issues, while infrastructural periods of 1951-2011. Block Wise Landuse Data development was mainly linked to economic of Agricultural Department of West Bengal development and environment. A real paucity from the year 2000-2013 is followed to of work is observed regarding the relation of encounter the change of net sown area and urbanisation, infrastructural development and non-agricultural landuse with increasing urban food security especially in a developing country population. Regression analysis and Spearman’s like India where rapid, haphazard, unplanned ranking Correlation Coefficient are calculated to urbanisation are causing great loss to farmland. understand the correlation among net sown Hence, this study is an attempt to examine the area, urban expansion, and urban population. pace at which urbanisation; infrastructural Hugli District Gazetteer is followed for development is consequent upon rapid landuse understanding the changing nature of change and its influence on food security in urbanisation and status of agriculture of the parts of Hugli district. The findings demonstrate study area. Satellite imagery of the study area - that urbanisation in the study area is LANDSAT 5 TM, November 1996 and LANDSAT consequent upon rapid landuse change, 8 OLI (30-metre spatial resolution), November decrease in the land under cultivation, lower 2016 has been used to extract information Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 50 regarding the change of landuse pattern. , Panduah, Chinsurah Magra, Supervised classifications of both the images and . Amongst these, the Serampur- are conducted to identify the nature and the block is highly urbanised. Here, the extent of landuse change. In addition, the urban population is 76.10% and the urban area research used several techniques like Markov is 53% and the net sown area is only 653 Chain analysis for future landuse change hectare during 2011. The block also bears a prediction, population projection and long history of urbanisation dating back to projection of future yield rate aimed at 1951( was class II town and understanding the future predicament Uttarpara was class IV town according to 1951 regarding food security. Maps are prepared Census). Thus, the block is not considered as using ArcGIS 10.3.1 and Erdas Imagine 9.2 productive agricultural area. Except for the software. In the light of these methods, this Serampur-Uttarpara block, all the other blocks research explored the following questions: have greater extent of net sown area and all of them are experiencing rapid urbanisation and . To what extent urban extension and infrastructural development are decrease of cultivated area. All these blocks have recent history of rapid urbanisation and affecting rural landuse in the study area. . How the decreased agricultural land and abrupt change of landuse. For examples— , I had no urban extension productivity affects future food security? in 2001 whereas Chandiatala II, Balagarh, Pandua, Chinsurah-Magra and Haripal In order to probe these questions, the research experienced greater degree of urbanisation considered some selected blocks of the from 2001 to 2011(Table 1). Thus, they have productive agricultural area of Hugli district as been considered for the current study. The CD areas under review to probe into urbanisation (Community Development) blocks selected effective in altering the rural landuse with under Hugli district are Chanditala I & II, possible threat to future food security. The Jangipara, Balagarh, Panduah, Chinsurah urbanized blocks of Hugli district are Serampur- Magra, Singur and Haripal (Figure 1). Uttarpara, Chanditala I & II, Jangipara,

Figure 1: The Study Area Source: Prepared by the Authors

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Table 1: Urbanisation and Agricultural Statistics Block Percentage of Urban Area Total Number Non- Net Sown Area Urban Population in km2 of CT Agricultural in hectares to Total Population Landuse in hectares 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2000-01 2010-11 2000-01 2010-11 Balagarh 2.2 12.31 1 9.54 1 4 3989 5541 15605 14994 Pandua 9.56 15.52 3.8 8.55 1 4 4846 6051 22896 22325 Haripal 0 1.75 0 1.24 0 1 3526 4324 14557 13715 Singur 7.49 18.98 6.4 20.21 1 6 6348 10133 12373 8920 Chinsurah 46.83 64.87 19.9 24.43 9 15 4113 6644 4996 2861 Magra Jangipara 0 7.44 0 5.86 0 1 3620 4173 12762 12166 Chanditala I 0 41.79 0 30.83 0 9 1598 1958 7578 7336 Chanditala II 42.36 69.13 18.3 30.3 10 15 2263 4552 4552 2457 Data Source: District Statistical Handbook, 2000-01, 2010-11 & Department of Agriculture, West Bengal (Computed by the Authors) Urbanisation and its Effect on Agriculture 2005, Dong et al., 2007). The study area of Urbanisation leads to broad-based rural to Hugli district had only 22 Census Towns (CT) in 2001. The number of CTs increased to 56 in urban transformation relating population, landuse, economic activity, culture, or indeed 2011. Jangipara, Haripal and Chanditala I Block had no urban area or CT in 2001, but they have any one of these (McGranahan et al., 2014:6). It involves an increase in the size of urban pocketed 10 new CTs in 2011 (Figure 2). populace, growth in the number and size of Table 1 shows urbanisation and agricultural urban places with increasing concentration of statistics. Census has defined Census Towns population in such places (Hauser et al., 1954; (CTs) as places that fulfil three overlay criteria Padam et al., 2001:2-4 and Mukherjee et al., of populace of 5000, 75 percent of male main 2017). Over recent decades, developing working population occupied in non- countries show trends of decrease in rural agricultural pursuits and density of 400 persons landuse and an increase in urban landuse per sq. km. They can be effectively through urbanisation (Mundia et al., 2006; Jat characterised as transitional urban areas at et al., 2008; Dewan et al., 2009 and Yin et al., various levels of transition, which is also known 2011). Rapid urbanisation is related with the as urbanisation by implosion, where massive disappearance of rural agricultural land, spatial density of population, economic change and discontinuity and sustainability challenges (Yeh access to good level of public services prompts et al., 1999; Xie et al., 2006 and Wei, 2007). to urban development. They are not governed Agricultural land is more or less level to by urban local governments (Ghosh, 2014: 29; slanting, well drained and cleared, not prone to Chakraborty, 2015: 170 and Karmakar, 2015: erosion and as of now connected to existing 22). There is exponential rise of urban transportation infrastructure. These features population and the number of CTs in all the make it the lowest cost; therefore, agricultural blocks of the study area. Haripal, Jangipara and land loss is substitute to newly urbanised land Chanditala I had little experience of growth in (Mothorpe et al., 2013: 2). Urbanisation plays urban population up to 2001, but in 2011, major role in the territorial ecological change urban population increased to a considerable and, therefore, the increasing rate of height, which in turn signals the pace of urbanisation, the expansion of urban lands and urbanisation in the study area as explained landuse and land cover change have become below: important issue in the study of dynamics of Balagarh block included two Non-Municipal landuse change (Sanchez-Rodriguez et al., (NM) towns such as Mirdhanga and Sripur since Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 52

1991. Before 1991, the block was very rural in the Haripal block with urbanisation of 0.67 per character. Badhagachhi gained the status of CT cent of its total area. Pandua was also a NM in 2001 and Mirdhanga, , Sripur of this town under Pandua block since 1961; it gained block gained the same status in 2011. From the status of CT in 2001. In 2011, 3.09 % area 1991-2011, 4.72% area was urbanised in was declared urbanised in Pandua due to Balagarh block. Similarly, Chanditala I was rural emergence of three new CTs (, in character with rural landuse pattern before Purusottampur and ) along with 2011, but 32.98% of its total area was declared Pandua CT. Singur NM existed in Singur block urbanised due to development of nine new CTs since 1961. An urban OG (Kamarkundu) was in 2011. They are Masat, , found in this Block since 1991. Singur NM was , Dudhkalmi, , declared CT in 2001, and within 2001-2011 the , , and share of urbanisation further increased to . Chanditala II block had four NM about 8.88% with the emergence of five new towns such as , Kharsarai, Purba Tajpur CTs (, , , and Begumpur in 1991. During 2001, these NM , Barai) along with Singur CT. towns transformed into CTs, and further there Jangipara block retained its rural landuse was emergence of six new CTs such as pattern till 2001, but with the development of , Pairagachha, Monohorpur, Rajabalhat CT in 2011, the Block gained 3.57% Garalgachha, Krishnapur and Mrigola. of its area under urban category in 2011 (Figure and Mrigola CTs of the block lost 2). From the current analysis it is clear that their status and again returned to their rural greatest extent of urbanisation in the study landuse during 2011 because of insufficient area took place from 2001 to 2011 (Table 1). infrastructural development. Again, there was The eastern part of the study area is mostly development of new CTs in the block namely covered by six (M). That is why Tisa, Kapashanria, , Baksa, there is no agricultural landuse in that portion. , Janai and during the same The municipalities are , Hooghly period. Thus, 57.69% of its area was urbanised Chinsurah, Chandannagor Municipal with the development of 15 CTs from 1991 to Corporation, Bhadreshwar and . 2011. Chinsurah and Magra blocks had three Their area increased from 50.78 sq. km in 1991 NM towns (Raghunathpur, , to 63.28 sq. km in 2011. Thermal Power Project Town) and four The trend line in Figure 3 displays fall in net OGs (Out Growth - Sankhanagar, Barakhejuria, sown area with urbanisation in all the blocks of Chak Bansberia, Kamarpara) in 1981. During the study area. Balagarh, Pandua, Haripal, 1991, Sankhanagar and Chak Bansberia Singur, Chinsurah-Magra and Chanditala II block transformed from OG to NM. During 2001, shows greater fall of net sown area and the rest eight CTs emerged in the block such as , of the blocks project comparatively lesser Raghunathpur, Madhusudanpur, , decrease of net sown area due to urbanisation Sankhanagar, Kulihanda, Simla and Dharampur. (Figure 3). The area under non-agricultural use In 2011, further seven CTs were added in the is found to increase from 2001 to 2011 in all the Block namely Kola, Hansghara, Alikhoja, Chak blocks of the area under review. The blocks— Bansberia, Manushpour, Keota and Naldanga. Balagarh, Pandua, Singur, Chinsurah-Magra, From 2001 to 2011 the total number of CTs Chanditala II shows greater degree of increase increased from nine to 15, thus 30.49% area of area under non-agricultural landuse than the was urbanised in Chinsurah Magra block. other blocks of the study area (Figure 4). The Haripal block had one NM town (Haripal NM) in above facts prove that the district has 1971, but it lost its urban status in 1981. Since experienced a reciprocal loss of net sown area then Haripal maintained its rural landuse due to substantial gain in the rates of pattern until 2001. During 2011, one new CT, urbanisation. There is also increased use of land , was found to be developed within into non-agricultural uses such as settlement, Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 53 building construction, industry, roads, be used as a method to compute the extent of infrastructure, etc. Urbanisation is vital to loss urbanisation as a responsible factor in of territory under agriculture. In other words, transforming rural landuse pattern. The result urbanisation has always been stretched out on shows that there is a strong inverse relationship agricultural belt (Satterthwaite et al., 2010). between the growth of urban area and the net Spearman’s ranking correlation coefficient can sown area (Table 2).

Figure 2 Data Source: District Census Handbook, 2011

Table 2: Calculation of Spearman’s Ranking Correlation Coefficient Block Urban Area in Rank Net sown Area Rank Difference of d2 Sq. Km. in Hectares Rank (d) Haripal 1.24 1 13715 6 5 25 Jangipara 5.86 2 12166 5 3 9 Pandua 8.55 3 22325 8 5 25 Balagarh 9.54 4 14994 7 3 9 Singur 20.21 5 8920 4 1 1 Chinsurah Magra 24.43 6 2861 2 4 16 Chanditala I 30.03 7 2457 1 6 36 Chanditala II 30.83 8 7336 3 5 25 Data Source: District Statistical Handbook, 2011; Dept. of Agriculture, WB (2010-11) (Computed by the Authors) Spearman’s Ranking Correlation Coefficient: r = 1- 6 * Ʃd2/n3-n = - 0.73 Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 54

Figure 3: Regression Analysis

Figure 4 Data Source for Figures 3 and 4 : District Statistical Handbook, Department of Agriculture, West Bengal (2000-01 & 2010-11) Infrastructural Development in the Study Area the quality of life by providing better transport Infrastructural development is essential for and communication system (Shilling, 2007: 5). maintaining economic growth and improving Urbanisation indicates economic growth and creates immense demand for private and public Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 55 sector infrastructure advancement (Aldred, infrastructural development. Satellite images- 2012). According to Berdi and Cavinato (1982), Landsat 5 TM, November 1996 and Landsat 8 transport and communication are the most OLI, November 2016 (30 metre spatial important variables for infrastructural resolution) have been analysed to detect the development (Nayak, 1999: 60). The study area landuse change in the area under review. has experienced rapid infrastructural Supervised classification has been done to development. The lengths of both surfaced and extract the required information. The result is unsurfaced road maintained by Public Works then matched with Google Earth image of the Department (PWD) and Zilla Parishad have study area. A post-classification matrix is been varied during 2000-01 to 2011-12. Here, worked out through change detection to in most of the blocks the surfaced and analyse the nature, rate, and location of unsurfaced roads under PWD and Zilla Parishad landuse change (Table 3). Markov Chain Model are mostly built into roads maintained by Gram has been applied to show the probability of Panchayat, and The Pradhan changes from each class of landuse to each Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) (Figure 5). different class in future. Markov Chain Model, Thus, the total length of road has increased in in a general sense is a projection model, which most of the blocks from 2000-01 to 2011-12 demonstrates the probabilistic movements of (Figure 6). The data regarding the length of the an individual in a system consisting of discrete roads maintained by PMGSY is not available for states. Markov Chain recognises both time and Chinsurah Magra and Singur block. Thus, only in a finite set of states as discrete values to these two blocks changes in length of road forecast the future landuse change. Transitions cannot be projected in the diagram. PMGSY between the states of the system are traced in was launched on 25th December 2000 by the form of a transition matrix that accounts Government of India to provide rural road the probability of moving from one state to the connectivity to detached rural habitation. The next (Clark, 1965; Hegazy et al., 2015). works are executed by State Governments and Application of Markov Chain to model change monitored by the Ministry of Rural in landuse started since the year 1970 at a Development through the National Rural Roads variety of spatial scales as a substitute to the development Agency (NRRDA) set up for this use of large-scale urban simulation models for purpose.1 forecasting landuse alteration (Bell et al., 1977; Baker, 1989 and Kiran, 2013). Table 4 presents Remote Sensing Technologies, Detection of Landuse Change and Prediction of Future the Probability Transition Matrix of different landuse types of the study area. In this Change of Landuse Using Markov Chain Model research, 1996 and 2016 landuse maps are Advancement of Remote Sensing technologies prepared to predict the future landuse change facilitates us in detection of landuse/land cover during 2056 in the area under review (Table change over a period of time (Seto et al., 2003; 5).The result shows that there is a rapid Weber et al., 2003 and Pellika et al., 2004). conversion of agricultural land/cropland into They are available and accessible at high settlement and other constructions from 1996 temporal resolution and the cost is lower than to 2016. In many cases, area under bare land, the other traditional methods of landuse plantation, and water bodies have been change detection (Jensen, 1983; Martin et al., converted to built up area. The cropland has 1989 and El-Raey et al., 1995). In the current decreased from 99612.43 hectares to 82693.4 research, present landuse change and future hectares and the built up area simultaneously probability of further landuse change has been increased from 21026.2 hectares to 41967.7 worked out to understand the degree to which hectares during 1996-2016 (Figures 7 and 8). cropland can be affected by urbanisation and

1 Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), retrieved from, http://pmgsy.nic.in (accessed September 10 2017) Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 56

Figure 5: Data Source: Ex-Engg., P.W.D. Roads, Ex-Engg., Zilla Parishad, 2000-01, 2011-12

Figure 6: Blockwise Increase of Length of Road Data Source: District Statistical Handbook, 2011-12

Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 57

All the blocks of the study area shows decrease cropland (Figure-9). The Markov Model further in agricultural land and increase in area under predicts that the cropland will decrease from built up. Pandua, Balagarh, Chinsurah-Magra, 62.77% to 42.90% and the built up area will Haripal, Singur and Chanditala II blocks show increase from 31.86% to 54.63% of the total more or less similar rate of decrease of area area from 2016 to 2056. Future projection of under cropland and increase of built up area. landuse again signifies that in future the change Jangiapara and Chanditala I block also display of landuse will have detrimental effect on same character but the rate of increase of built cropland (Table 5). up area is more than the rate of decrease of

Figure 7

Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 58

Figure 8

Figure 9: Blockwise Decrease of Area under Cropland and Increase of Built Up Area Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 59

Table 3: Post Classification Matrix from 1996-2016 1996 Plantation Bare land Water Crop Land Built Up Area Total body 2016 Plantation 1779.39 0 0 0 0 1779.39 Bare land 0 3086.01 0 0 0 3086.01 Water body 0 0 2219.4 0 0 2219.4 Crop Land 200.5 748.93 0 81743.97 0 82693.4 Built Up Area 1663.47 1000 409.6 17868.43 21026.2 41967.7 Total 3643.36 4834.94 2629 99612.43 21026.2 131745.9 Source: Computed by the Authors

Table 4: Transition Probability Matrix Derived from Landuse Map, 1996-2016 Plantation Bare land Water body Crop Land Built Up Area Total Plantation 0.488392583 0 0 0.0550316 0.456576 1 Bare land 0 0.638272657 0 0.154899544 0.206827799 1 Water body 0 0 0.844199315 0 0.155800685 1 Crop Land 0 0 0 0.820620178 0.179379521 1 Built Up Area 0 0 0 0 1 1 Source: Computed by the Authors

Table 5: Future Projection of Landuse Change by Applying Markov Chain Model Landuse Classes 2016 2056 Hectares Percentage Hectares Percentage Plantation 1779.39 1.35 424.43 0.322157886 Bare land 3086.01 2.34 1257.22 0.954275941 Water body 2219.4 1.68 1581.71 1.200575714 Crop Land 82693.4 62.77 56512.8 42.89528119 Built Up Area 41967.7 31.86 71969.8 54.62770927 Total 131745.9 100 131745.96 100 Source: Computed by the Authors Impact on Food Security agricultural productivity, low standard of living, Rapid economic growth combined with and threat to future food insecurity (Blum, 1997; Belal et al., 2011 and Naab, 2013: 257). increasing population, reduction in agricultural land and decreasing soil availability for Today our existing knowledge fails to ascertain agricultural production are correlated with food direct cause–effect relationships between security in developing countries like India and urbanisation and its influence on degradation China (Yang et al., 2000; Lin et al., 2003; Zhang of soils. Urbanisation has definite adverse et al., 2004 and Chakraborty et al., 2016). impact on soil as it alters the biological, Scientists and agriculturalists have already chemical and physical properties of soil and predicted decrease in crop yields, as there is no thereby, debase its quality in such a manner such scope for further expansion in the (soil pollution by industrial and municipal agricultural land (Sajjad et al., 2012 and Sayeed, sewage and polluted surface water through 2014: 5). Greater urban landuse in fertile land irrigation and flooding events) that it leads to has negative impact on soil resources, and on loss of vegetation, poor water infiltration, food security. The effect is decline in accumulation of heavy metal, excess water Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 60 runoff and soil erosion (Chen, 2007: 8; use of inorganic fertilisers, pesticides and other Marcotullio, 2008 and Kharel, 2011). Again, sorts of agro-chemicals are detrimental to soil urbanisation and population growth creates fertility and they are often responsible for soil huge pressure on the existing agricultural degradation (Bhattacharyya et al., 2015:3535, production. In order to feed growing numbers Massah, 2016: 44). The use of these fertilisers of people, there is greater use of fertilisers, may provide higher yield at present but it might pesticides, and insecticides in the field. The use have a negative effect to natural ecosystem in of NPK in soil has an increasing trend in Hugli the long-term. district as a whole (Figure 10). Indiscriminate

Figure 10: Use of NPK in Soil Source: Directorate of Agriculture, West Bengal, 1981-82 to 2011-12 Loss of productive land is the principal cause of social development often use this but this inviting threat to food security in the study method not only measures population. Here, in area. Loss of agricultural land is directly this paper geometric method of projection is consequent upon reduction in production of utilised to understand both the population and principal and non-principal crops. Urbanisation yield rate of the study area in near future. The and infrastructural development in the area projected population and production is based have affected all four dimensions of food on present socio-economic and cultural security as explained below: situation.2 Food Availability Food production and supply are the two most important components of food availability. Population Projection and Projected Yield Rate

Quetelet, a French Mathematician propounded Population Projection in 1835. It helps us to 2 Population Projections: Meaning, Types and calculate the growth of population based on Importance, retrieved from, the present and past conditions. The planners http://www.sociologydiscussion.com/demography/popul and administrators to gauge economic and ation-projections/population-projections-meaning-types- and-importance/3058 (accessed September 18 2017) Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 61

Projected Population or yield rate =Population of these crops have been taken into of current year or Yield rate of the current year consideration. Yield rate of Aman and Boro (1+r/100) n have decreased in the study area but yield rate r = average annual growth rate of of Potato is found to increase in Pandua, population/ average annual yield rate Chinsurah-Magra, Singur, Jangipara, Chanditala II. The increasing yield rate of Potato in some of n= number of year involved in the the blocks is a positive sign for the district as a period of time whole but decreasing yield rate of Aman and Following the above formula, Projected Boro as staple foodgrains are a negative Population and Yield rate have been calculated impact. This fact raises a fundamental question, for the area under review. whether the district or the state will rely on greater production of potato, precisely because Table 6 shows that the projected yield rate of the decreasing yield rate of rice cannot be some major crops has decreased from 2000-01 compensated by greater yield of potato, as rice to 2051-52. Aman, Boro and Potato are some of is the main source of nutrition for the poor. the major crops of Hugli district. The yield rates Table 6: Projected Yield Rate of Some Major Crops Block Aman Boro Potato

01 12 52 01 12 52 01 12 52

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2000 2011 2051 2000 2011 2051 2000 2011 2051

Pandua 3268 2920 1861 4232 2963 711.99 27986 29971 39422.38 Balagarh 3218 2418 770.79 4342 2978 658.97 25645 23275 15792.02 Chanditala I 3551 2336 437.48 4480 2739 382.69 28598 26490 19501.46 Chanditala II 3579 2312 402.62 4619 2785 368.07 26975 28736 37007.16 Chinsurah Magra 3447 2640 908.35 4854 1529 15.05 23062 29676 81365.25 Jangipara 3689 2720 803.91 4296 3164 930.95 26842 27643 31093.27 Singur 3187 2631 1222.01 4151 2888 676.67 31649 33057 39343.88 Haripal 3284 2320 577.87 4374 3184 894.03 28540 24461 13199.43 Data Source: Department of Agriculture, Government of West Bengal, 2000-01 &2011-12 (Computed by the Authors)

Table 7: Calculation of Population Projection Block Population 2001 Population 2011 Projected Population of 2051 Haripal 235,494 261073 394331 Jangipara 201001 221578 327220 Pandua 284231 316197 484287 Balagarh 214784 228998 295904 Singur 260827 276413 348643 Chinsurah-Magra 211049 247055 463911 Chanditala I 165837 179825 248613 Chanditala II 213485 158396 156767 Data Source: District Statistical Handbook, 2001, 2011 (Computed by the Authors) Table 7 presents the projected population of shown in Table 1. Due to the substantial 2051 for the study area. It is found that only in decrease of rural population, total population Chanditala II, the total population has a has been reduced. The percentage of rural and decreasing trend, but in that particular block, urban population in the block is 57.64%, urban population has increased largely as 42.36% in 2001 and 30.87%, 69.13% Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 62 respectively during 2011. Thus, the rural the agricultural products imported from population decreased for about 26.77% while outside are cereals, pulses, milk, cashew nuts, the increase of urban population is 26.77%. The fruits, sugar, oilseeds and vegetable oils. India’s male (108893 in 2001, 79831 in 2011) and total expense for cereal and pulse import female population (104562 in 2001, 78565 in stands for 196.8 million dollars, which is 10.7% 2011) of the block has decreased from 2001- of the total agricultural import of the country in 2011. It can be argued that migration to urban the period of 1999-2000.3 Thus in case of area is the main reason behind such decrease developing countries like India, food import is of rural population and increase of urban not an option. If a region is dependent upon population. However, migration is not sex- food import precisely due to decreasing food selective. The percentage of tertiary workers production then a crisis of food grain will also increased from 57.05% to 79.13% from generate high demand and low supply of food 1991 to 2011. In Chanditala II block, the grains. Thus, food price will rise, the number of CTs increased from 10 to 15 while government subsidy in PDS will fall and the Chanditala I block was completely rural in worst sufferer would be the poor section who character in 2001 but emergence of nine new falls below poverty line. CTs in 2011 changed its character from rural to Food Stability urban. Urbanised areas like Chanditala I block, Serampore-Uttarpara block and other The increased food demand will press upon the Municipalities are just beside Chanditala II transportation and distribution of food block. Rapid increase of urban population and materials within the cities. This will put number of CTs in Chanditala I and II block additional pressure on rural infrastructures, signify the fact that rural people have shifted transport advancements, and food distribution within not only the urban areas of Chanditala II outlets. Since these are already insufficient in block, but also to the nearest CTs of Chanditala urban areas of many developing countries, the I Block and other urban areas near to the Block. stability of food supply may be jeopardised (FAO, 2008). In developing countries, urban Food production does not increase at par with poor are always at risk during extreme weather the increase in the population, which is evident conditions and other climatic hazards4. from Tables 6 and 7. In future, agriculture will Similarly, lower food availability in the study be a challenging pursuit to meet the demand of area will put threat to the access of food at all the increased population. The increased times especially during sudden scarcity of food number of individual will require more food, due to natural hazards. When the availability of which will have to be generated by greater food will be less, the demand for food will rise agricultural production or by food imports and food prices would also rise. Thus, both (Matuschke, 2009: 5). If a prosperous rural and urban communities will be unable to agricultural region experiences decrease of sustain their livelihood and move to other cropland and yield rate of major crops and places in search of work and food (Szabo, 2016: increase of population in near future, then it 32-33). would pose an overall negative impact on the district and the state. This fact also signifies that the region may be dependent on food import in long run. Here, one thing must be mentioned that importing food can be an option for countries 3 Export and Import of Agricultural Products, retrieved like Japan where economic growth takes place from, http://www.indiabudget.nic.in/es2000- in terms of industrialisation and the country is 01/chap820.pdf(accessed September 17 2017) 4World Disasters Report, 2010, mostly reliant on food import from outside due https://www.ifrc.org/Global/Publications/disasters/WDR to trade liberalisation (Tetsuji, 2009). In India /WDR2010-full.pdf (accessed September 17 2017)

Siddique and Mukherjee. Space and Culture, India 2017, 5:2 Page | 63

Food Safety, Access of Food and role of Public The PDS suffers from several criticism like Distribution System (PDS) lower quality of food grains, substantial Access to food in urban areas are greatly amount of leakage which affects the third dependent upon the relations between measurement of food security that is food income and food prices (Atkinson, 1995: 154). safety. Generally, it is found that in urban Urbanisation indicates greater reliance on food areas, food is consumed outside the house. In markets. Thus, poor people become many developing countries, the set-up of street immediately vulnerable to potential price stalls is unregulated. There is deficiency of spikes. Urban dwellers buy 90% of their food adequate refrigeration, water, sanitation and from outside. Therefore, food prices are a other facilities in the food stalls. Vendors are major determinant of whether food products not often trained in preparing, handling, and storing food safely. Therefore, connection can be acquired or not (Ruel et al., 2003).The PDS plays a vital role in food management between consumption of street foods and the prevalence of gastrointestinal infections have operations, especially in developing countries today. The most important food items covered been detected in developing countries (Maxwell et al., 2000; FAO 2008). Ration under the PDS in India are rice, wheat, and sugar. These three items together account for commodities are provided only to the people having proper residential address. Homeless, greater percentage of the total PDS sales (Sarkar, 2005). In West Bengal, annual income beggars and others who do not have appropriate residential address are left out of of all households below ₹42,000 or less was provided with the benefits of ration. Rice is this programme in most cases. This fact provided at ₹ two per kg and flour is provided certainly affects the access of food to all at ₹ five per 750 gm by the West Bengal PDS.5 individuals, especially those who do not have Though the government is providing rice at ₹ any food purchasing capacity (Sarkar, 2005). A two per kg, the production cost of rice is much definite stride would therefore have to be higher and the government pays huge amount taken by all the three organs of the country, of subsidy for running PDS. If urban growth that is, legislature, executive and judiciary at least to see that food reaches the hungry continues to change the agricultural land and populace (Sirpurkar, 2015). Some other issues affect food production, then how long the state will be able to provide subsidy in PDS is a associated with PDS are high cost to run the system, the question of urban biasness, matter, which needs attention. Often it is found that the rice available at ration shops lacks regional disparities in PDS benefits, low amount of procurement, problems of focusing adequate quality. During the primary survey, it is found that amongst 200 household surveyed, on the needy people, high level of food subsidy, minimal cost-benefit ratio and so on 73 households do not prefer to consume food from fair price shops because of poor quality of (Sarkar, 2005). grains. 32 households reported that in spite Conclusion they fall under poverty line they do not get PDS The objective of the paper was to find out the facilities. The amount of grains provided by PDS relationship between urban expansion and is also not sufficient to the rural poor as their reduction of land under agriculture and its nutrition is very dependent on this. Thus, they effect on the future food security. It is found have to avail food from outside (Data Source: that there is profound impact of urbanisation Field Survey, 2016). on all dimensions of food security in the study area. The study area has experienced rapid pace of urbanisation and infrastructural

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Xie, Y., Yu, M., Bai, Y. and Xing, X. (2006). About the Authors Ecological analysis of an emerging urban Professor Giyasuddin Siddique has been landscape pattern—desakota: a case study in working in the Department of Geography, the Suzhou, China, Landscape ecology, 21(8), University of Burdwan, since 1999. He acquired pp.1297-1309 his Masters degree in Geography in 1983 and Yang, H., Li, X. (2000). Cultivated land and food Ph.D degree in 1999 from the same University. supply in China, Landuse Policy, 17, pp.73–88 The title of his thesis was “Impact of Deforestation in Parts of South-Western Yeh, A.G.O. and Li, X. (1999). Economic development and agricultural land loss in the Lateritic Areas of West Bengal”. He has more than 40 research papers published in various Pearl River Delta, China, Habitat international, 23(3), pp. 373-390 esteemed National and International Journals and he has also written six textbooks. Six Yin, J., Yin, Z., Zhong, H., Xu, S., Hu, X., Wang, J. scholars have been awarded Ph.D degree under and Wu, J. (2011). Monitoring urban expansion his supervision and three theses have been and landuse/land cover changes of Shanghai already submitted for examination. Another metropolitan area during the transitional seven scholars are currently working under his economy (1979–2009) in China, Environmental guidance for the fulfilment of Ph.D degree. monitoring and assessment, 177(1), pp. 609- Professor Siddique has more than 25 years’ 621 experience of field based research on forests, Zhang, X., Mount, D.T., Boisvert, R.N. (2004). tribal culture, human ecology, social Industrialization, urbanization and landuse in environmental problems, river dams, hazard China, Journal of Chinese Economic and studies, gender issues, human development, Business Studies, 2 (3), pp. 207–224 quality of life, etc. Acknowledgements Nabanita Mukherjee is currently working as a UGC-Junior Research Fellow (Ph.D Scholar) in We are immensely thankful to Avipsita the Department of Geography, the University of Chatterjee, Senior Research Fellow, Burdwan since 2015. She completed M.Sc. from Department of Applied Mathamatics, University Department of Geography, University of of Calcutta for helping us with Markov Chain Calcutta. She has two research paper published Model. Equally, we are thankful to Rahaman in International Journals and two chapters in Ashique Ilahi, Project Fellow, Department of edited books. She has research interest in the Geography, The University of Burdwan for studies of climate change, sustainable providing necessary help in Remote Sensing development, urbanisation, landuse/land cover and GIS. We also thank the anonymous change and various other issues. reviewers and the editor for their valuable comments and assistance in improvement of the paper.