2019/March–April 2

Editorial

Dear colleagues,

It is my pleasure to present you the second Think Visegrad in Brussels newsletter of 2019.

May 2019 marks an important anniversary for the Central European countries. Together with 5 other states, they joined the on the 1 May 2014 and thus just celebrated first 15 years of EU membership. Such a jubilee calls for a reflection – leading experts of the Think Visegrad platform will therefore gather in Brussels to discuss “What have we learned” on May 20! Join us in the evening at the Prague House, you can find more information on the event and registration below.

The 15 years anniversary of the “big bang” enlargement brings also questions about accession prospects of the candidate countries. We will discuss “Opening accession talks with Albania and Northern Macedonia” with our partners from the European Neighbourhood Council in June – stay tuned for more details.

This newsletter also brings you tips for many interesting readings from our member institutes - Centre for Eastern Studies, Globsec Policy Institute, Center for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy and the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy.

We are looking forward to seeing you at our events!

Have a great spring,

Kind Regards Zuzana Stuchlíková Head of Brussels Office. EUROPEUM 2019/March–April

In this Issue:

• Past events • Upcoming events • From our members • Public consultations by the • Think Visegrad platform • What is the ‘Think Visegrad in Brussels’ project?

Past events

The future of the EU-UK security relationship seen from When: 9 April, 2019 (16:00 – 18:00) Where: Permanent Representation of the Czech Republic to the EU, rue Caroly 15, Brussels About: On 9th of April, the Czech Permanent Representation to the EU in Brussels hosted the roundtable "The future of the EU-UK security relationship seen from Central Europe". The event was hosted by the Permanent Representative of the Czech Republic to the PSC, H.E. Tomáš Szunyog. The discussion was held under the Chatham House rule.

Upcoming events

15 Years in the EU: What Have We Learned? When: 20 May, 2019 (18:30 – 20:00) Where: Prague House About: The Czech Republic and other 9 countries celebrate 15 years of EU membership. What have we achieved and learned in the process? Are we fully-fledged members or still “the new member states”? What is the position of Central Europe in the EU? The event is organized by the Think Visegrad platform, the Permanent Representation of the Czech Republic to the EU and the Delegation of Prague to the EU.

Opening accession talks with Albania and Northern Macedonia: lessons of the past When: 18 June, 2019 (TBC) 2019/March–April

Where: TBA About: The possibility of opening accession talks with Western Balkans candidate countries Albania and Northern Macedonia is supposed to be one of the topics of the European Council in June 2019. Politically sensitive decision should come at times when the enlargement process yet again stagnates and credibility of the EU prospects are questioned. Will the EU open accession talks with the two countries and what will be the main determining factors? What are the risks and challenges of the accession negotiations? What can we learn from the experience of Serbia, Montenegro and Turkey? The event is organized by the Think-Visegrad platform and European Neighbourhood Council.

From our members

Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (OSW, Centre for Eastern Studies), Warsaw,

Publications: Russian citizenship for Donbas residents Jan Strzelecki and Krzysztof Nieczypor, fellows of Russian Department, comment on Vladimir Putin’s latest decree introducing a simplified procedure for granting citizenship to the residents of the separatist republics in the Donbas (DNR/LNR). The signing of the decree is part of Russia’s broader plan to strengthen its ties to the occupied part of the Donbas. It also hopes that the move will counteract the rise in Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s popularity within the parastates. Allowing the granting of Russian passports is also Moscow’s kind of response to the rising social discontent in the Donbas, which has been caused by the difficult economic situation, albeit the signing of the decree does not mean that Russia will automatically confer citizenship on the residents of the Donbas en masse.

The Runet fortress: the Kremlin’s struggle with the ‘hostile’ internet Maria Domańska (Senior Fellow, Russian Department) talks the bill on the ‘sovereign Internet’ passed by State Duma in mid-April. The argument that the bill must be passed to ensure protection from external cyber-sabotage has a strong ideological undertone. This is a reflection of growing fear among the key Russian decision-makers, whose origins lie in the secret services, of the threat posed by the United States. The Kremlin is concerned about a possible outburst of public protests on a much larger scale than before, even leading to regime change. Since control of the public is viewed as an 2019/March–April

essential condition to guarantee the elite’s security, the bill’s overriding goal is to create an effective, centralised system of control of the transfer routes and the content of data,

The Dubrovnik summit: the Europeanisation and enlargement of the 16+1 format Jakub Jakóbowski and Mateusz Seroka (Research Fellows of Research Programme and Central European Department, respectively) remark on the latest meeting of the prime ministers of Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) and China. In their opinion, the Dubrovnik summit brought about important changes to the functioning of the 16+1 format, making it an instrument complementary to the EU-China dialogue. It helped to promote co-operation between China and the CEE in spheres which lie within the competences of the EU member states, which are going to be the beneficients of the summit. This time, much less attention was given to the Western Balkan countries which have received the bulk of Chinese funding to date.

Local elections in Turkey – the AKP is losing big cities Mateusz Chudziak (Junior Fellow, Department for Turkey, Caucasus and Central Asia) on the AKP’s position: the ruling party capabilities, despite the overall victory, have become seriously limited in the most important cities. In turn, for the CHP this is a major success. Firstly, it managed to gain power in the two largest cities and, secondly, its dominance within the opposition bloc has been confirmed. The change in government in the large metropolises of Turkey will most likely make the political struggle more acute.

Pre-election gambit: Gazprom’s offer to Ukraine Szymon Kardaś and Jan Strzelecki, fellows of Russian Department, discuss the consequences of the meeting that took place on March 22nd in Moscow between the Russian prime minister Dmitri Medvedev and the chairman of Gazprom Aleksei Miller and the pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians Viktor Medvedchuk and Yuri Boyko (the latter is a candidate in the presidential elections in Ukraine. In their opinion, Moscow is treating it as a tactical move, connected with both the electoral campaign in Ukraine and the ongoing trilateral gas negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the EU. Moscow is testing Kyiv’s reactions by once again signalling its readiness to negotiate 'compromise' solutions concerning the gas market, in case there is a change in the Ukrainian ruling elite after the elections. The form of these propositions shows that Russia has not rule out the so-called ‘package solution’ option.

Managed succession in Kazakhstan Krzysztof Strachota and Mariusz Marszewski (Head of the Department for Turkey, Caucasus and Central Asia and its Research Fellow) comment on the unprecedented decision of Kazakhstan’s president Nursultan Nazarbayev to announce his resignation from office in a a television address. Authors predict a variety of unprecedented tensions - both sharp frictions within the elite itself, as candidates for the presidential election emerge and during the election campaign, and also social protests. The current “succesorial” campaign will be of fundamental and formative importance for the future of Kazakhstan's political system in the dimension of its political and symbolic culture 2019/March–April

(as the first transfer of power in the country's contemporary history), as well as for the role and scale of pluralism within the elite and society.

Commentarie and reports: Zelenskiy: Anatomy of a success Tadeusz Iwański (Research Fellow, Department for Ukraine, Belarus and ) was one of the first analysts to describe in so detailed way the image, campaign and target groups of then-candidate Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has won the presidential election in Ukraine.

Cracks in the marble. Russians’ trust in Putin on the decline Jadwiga Rogoża (Senior Fellow, Russian Department) comments on a distinct downward trend that began to emerge since January in public support for the Russian authorities – the president, government, and other political institutions. All opinion poll companies have recorded this decline, which applies not only to the authorities’ approval ratings, but also to their policies, including foreign policy, which has traditionally been an area in which the Kremlin has garnered popularity. The falling support for the president and his policies is confirmation that “geopolitical successes” such as the annexation of Crimea are no longer a factor ensuring that the public stands behind the Kremlin.

Are reforms unavoidable? Belarus’s economy facing a reduction of subsidies from Russia Kamil Kłysiński (Senior Fellow, Department for Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova) on the Belarus on the crossroads: Moscow is making its continued support for Belarus conditional on Minsk’s readiness to engage in genuine integration under the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which has formally been in place since 1999. As a consequence, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is now facing the challenge of either maintaining Belarus’s independence from Russia or losing at least a portion of Russian subsidies that currently account for 10% of Belarus’s GDP.

GLOBSEC

Publications: The Bumpy Road Towards the EU's Common Foreign Policy While the foreign policy makers in Brussels and in the Member States (MS) agree that the European Union (EU) needs to play a bigger role in the world, there is still no agreement on either what this bigger role is, or how to get there. The EU’s lack of a unified position on recent issues such as a stance on Jerusalem, an approach to Venezuela or the conclusions on the EU-Arab League summit, is becoming a serious practical and diplomatic handicap undermining the EU’s role on today’s global stage. This policy paper aims to look at the institutional evolution of the EU and the expansion of its competencies accompanying its successive treaty reforms, which equipped the EU with more tools for its role as a Global Actor. Finally, the goal is to propose some 2019/March–April

steps towards a credible EU Foreign Policy, including the role that Central Europe could play in shaping a joint foreign policy.

Key Finding from Focus Groups: The European Union in the lives of young people The European Union in the lives of young people: • The EU is a good thing, but with many caveats • The EU is an economic union that provides material benefits • European shared values—the big hurdle • Small countries need the EU • The future of the EU is uncertain • Brussels is too distant and bureaucratic • The EU is not visible nor explained enough • EU citizenship: from not existing to primary identifier • Active EU engagement means voting in EP elections • East-West divisions still shaping some EU attitudes • Member States’ and citizens’ obligations?

Those are the key findings from the focus groups that were conducted in November 2018 in Bulgaria, , Poland and in partnership with the Slavyani Foundation, Das Progressive Zentrum and the Higher School for International Relations and Communication.” In each country, partner organisations conducted 2 focus groups in different locations with about 10 participants, on average, who are university students (predominantly 18-30 years old). This key findings were compiled as a part of the project “EP elections and beyond: active participation of citizens at all EU levels”. EUact is a EUROPE FOR CITIZENS PROGRAMME Civil Society Project that aims to encourage sustained and active civil engagement of young people at EU level. The full report (to be published in May 2019) will provide an insight into the perceptions of young people related to their attitudes towards the European Union, their understanding of EU citizenship and activism. As potential new leaders, it is important to “feel the pulse” of the thoughts of today’s youth on belonging (or not) to the European community. Such data is a valuable tool to help predicting voting choices in the upcoming European Parliament (EP) elections as well as to provide a basis for a possible trending line of developments in the future. Stay tuned for the full report.

Institute for International Relations

Event: International Symposium on the Czech Foreign Policy: Fostering Multilateralism The 11th International Symposium on the Czech Foreign Policy: Fostering Multilateralism taking place at Czernin Palace on 23rd-24th September 2019, explores the theme of effective multilateralism as one of the important approaches to strengthening the Czech role within various multilateral platforms. The focus is on proactive participation in finding constructive solutions when discussing the future of 2019/March–April

the European Union, supporting the stabilisation and reconstruction efforts in the near neighbourhood of the EU, or the Middle East. The success of the Czech participation greatly relies on quality strategic partnerships and dialogues. The Symposium, therefore, aims to assess selected partnerships by taking in consideration the current domestic and international developments. It also sets out to commemorate important anniversaries, such as the 15th anniversary of joining the European Union, 30 years from the Velvet Revolution and 20 years of joining NATO. The program is going to include discussions on multilateralism in relation to Visegrad Group, the European Union, NATO, or thematically in reference to international law, trade, international security, gender, space, as well as assessing specific partnerships. You can find more information and a registration form here.

EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy

Publications: Chinese Influence in the Western Balkans: An Annual Review In a joint policy paper, Alexandr Lagazzi and Michal Vít present a year-long reflection on Chinese foreign policy and backdoor-deals diplomacy in the Western Balkans. Analysing the implementation of Chinese-backed investment projects in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the paper suggests the impact of Chinese influence in the region. This analysis revolves around two main questions: 1) what is the impact of Chinese activities on two individual WB countries – Serbia and Bosna and Herzegovina; and 2) how such policy is evaluated by the EU and Western European countries.

The Unfulfilled Promise of Kosovo Visa Liberalization The latest edition of the Eastern Monitor series, authored by Jana Juzová, analyses the state of the Visa liberalization of Kosovo. In 2012, it was still being decided inside EU member states whether they would recognize the newly declared state and it was clear that there is no consensus across the EU. The length of the visa liberalization process differed among the Western Balkan countries. Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia progressed rather swiftly in late-2009, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina had to wait one year longer. Kosovo, lagging behind the rest of the region, opened the dialog with the EU in 2012, at the same time as Georgia. While Georgian citizens already reached a successful end of the process and are allowed to travel to the EU without visa since March 2017, it is still uncertain when Kosovo will achieve this objective.

Commentaries and reports: Commentary: EUCO Meeting in March 2019 Martin Michelot, Christian Kvorning Lassen, Alexandr Lagazzi and Kateřina Davidová react to the EUCO Meeting held in March 2019. Slovak presidential elections: A country at a crossroads between progression and regression Miroslava Pěčková wrote a blog focusing on the 2019 Slovak presidential elections. Given a large discrepancy after the first round of the elections between Zuzana 2019/March–April

Čaputová and Maroš Šefčovič, it was expected that the two weeks of campaigning preceding the second round could get dirty. Commentary: Special European Council (Art. 50) Vladimír Bartovic, Christian Kvorning Lassen, Martin Michelot and Vít Havelka present their thoughts on the prospect of a long Brexit extension (April 10). Of Pandas and Elephants: The EU is Positioning Itself between China and the US after the April 2019 EU-China Summit Tereza Novotná comments the position of the EU after the EU-China Summit in April. No matter how important the bilateral issues are, however, the most important outcome of the Brussels talks are two other aspects: firstly, the global context in which the summit took place and, secondly, the place of values, such as human rights, within the EU-China relationship.

Events: European Summer School in Prague The applications for the 17th annual European Summer School in Prague are open! The European Summer School in Prague is an intensive 7-day learning programme focused on European integration. It is organized by one of the leading think-tanks in Central Europe, EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, in co-operation with Prague College and the Faculty of Social Sciences of the Charles University. This year’s European Summer School runs under the title “Restarting Europe: Central European Perspective” and will take place in Prague from 13th to 20th of July2019. The programme will focus on the current challenges, reform of the EU, topic of migration and crisis of democracy, the perspectives of Central European countries and V4, EU foreign policy, as well as on competitiveness of respective EU regions. Do not miss this opportunity and apply before May 30th 2019! You can apply at http://bit.ly/ESSPrague2019

Prague European Summit The fifth jubilee year will be held on 27-29 May 2019 as the first high-level discussion forum in the EU following the European Parliament elections. Reflecting on the critical junctures facing the EU, whether related to the election and the forthcoming new Commission, Brexit or the culmination of the Bratislava Process at the summit in Sibiu, this year’s conference will focus specifically on European sovereignty and strategic autonomy, challenges to the rule of law and EU’s fundamental values, use of big data in public policy, industrial revolution 4.0 effects’ on European societies or competitiveness of Europe in the field of artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Alongside with the conference a series of public events called Urban Talks will be held in Prague and one in Brno, for more info follow us on facebook.

Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy (CEID)

Publications: The Polish-Hungarian Alliance: Six Dimensions of Bilateral Relations CEID has published its newest study volume on the current state and future prospects of Polish-Hungarian bilateral relations, focusing on six of the most important areas of 2019/March–April

cooperation. The study edited by Dániel Bartha and Edit Inota summarizes and forecasts Polish and Hungarian strategic options and discusses the vision of the two countries about the future of the EU. Public consultations by the European Commission

Emissions trading scheme State aid guidelines – update Consultation period: 21 February 2019 - 16 May 2019 Topics: Competition About: EU Member States can compensate some companies in sectors with high electricity consumption (electro-intensive users), for part of the higher electricity costs arising from the EU emissions trading scheme. The compensation minimises the risk of carbon leakage, which occurs when emission costs cause EU companies to relocate their production to non-EU countries that have less ambitious climate measures. The rules allowing for compensation will be updated to ensure that they are adapted to the new emissions trading scheme for 2021- 2030.

Consultation on the list of candidate Projects of Common Interest in gas infrastructure Consultation period: 26 February 2019 - 20 May 2019 Topics: Energy About: The objective of this consultation is to seek your views on the specific candidate projects in gas and their individual contributions to market integration, sustainability, security of supply and competition from an EU energy policy perspective.

EU competition rules on vertical agreements – evaluation Consultation period: 14 February 2019 - 27 May 2019 Topics: Competition About: The Vertical Block Exemption Regulation, which exempts certain agreements and practices from the EU’s general competition rules, expires on 31 May 2022. This evaluation will check whether the Regulation is still effective, efficient, relevant, in line with other EU legislation and adds value. The Commission will use the evaluation to decide whether to let the Regulation lapse, to prolong or to revise it.

Gender equality in the EU Consultation period: 08 March 2019 - 31 May 2019 Topics: Justice and fundamental rights About: Gender equality is a fundamental value of the European Union. The European Commission promotes this through strategic frameworks. The Commission’s current strategic framework for gender equality (2016-19) is ending this year, together with the term of office of the current Commissioners. As a result, the Commission is launching a public consultation to gather 2019/March–April

opinions from all interested groups about the current situation regarding gender equality in the EU and the priorities for the next 5 years.

Midterm evaluation of the Structural Reform Support Programme 2017-2020 Consultation period: 12 March 2019 - 4 June 2019 Topics: Institutional affairs About: The mid-term evaluation of the Structural Reform Support programme has as purpose to report on the achievement of the Programme's objectives, focusing in particular on the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence and EU added value of the Programme, in compliance also with article 16 (3) of the Regulation 2017/825. The evaluation will cover the period starting from 01/05/2016, with the start of the Preparatory Action for the Programme, until 31/12/2018.

Consultation on the list of candidate Projects of Common Interest in cross-border carbon dioxide transport infrastructure Consultation period: 18 March 2019 - 9 June 2019 Topics: Energy About: The objective of this consultation is to seek your views on the specific candidate projects in cross-border carbon dioxide transport infrastructure and their individual contributions to market integration, sustainability, security of supply and competition from an EU energy policy perspective.

Think Visegrad platform

Think Visegrad – V4 Platform is a network for structured dialog on issues of strategic regional importance. The network analyses key issues for the Visegrad Group (V4), and provides recommendations to the governments of V4 countries, the annual presidencies of the group, and the International Visegrad Fund. Think Visegrad covers thematic priorities of V4 including V4’s internal cohesion, EU institutions and politics, the Western Balkans, relations with Eastern Partnership countries, development assistance, migration, security, energy security, environmental protection, energy security etc.

The formation of the network of V4 think-tanks was one of the priorities of the Czech Presidency in the Visegrad Group of 2011–2012. This idea reflected the long-term interest and willingness of Central European think tanks to enhance their cooperation within the Visegrad Group and to deepen its cohesion. Think Visegrad was established in 2012 by eight V4 research centers and institutes, and is funded by the International Visegrad Fund.

2019/March–April

The project brings together all the members of the Think Visegrad network, namely:

• Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association (RC SFPA), Bratislava (main coordinator) • Central European Policy Institute (CEPI), Bratislava • Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw • Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Warsaw • Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT), Budapest • Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy (CEID), Budapest • EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, Prague • Institute of International Relations (IIR), Prague What is the ‘Think Visegrad in Brussels’ project?

In the first half of 2016, the Think Visegrad platform members agreed on the idea proposed by the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, to create a common representation office in Brussels. The main motivation for it is the need to encourage debate on issues of common interest to the EU and the V4 and explain the positions of the V4 to a wide audience. We would like to project an image of constructive partners, to explain the dynamics of the debates within our regions and to highlight our active contributions to EU policy-making. With this view and with the aim to boost discussions specifically on the Czech Republic and the EU, EUROPEUM has opened its Brussels office in January 2016. The pilot project run in the second half of 2016 and consisted of many interesting and successful events. The second part of the project was approved in June 2017 and continued until the end of the year. Project has been continuously running through 2018 and 2019.