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Home , Crime, Law enforcement, Police, Predictive policing

Predictive Policing: The Future of Enforcement? by Beth Pearsall

Law enforcement explores ways to anticipate and prevent .

or years, businesses have In November 2009, the National used data analysis to anticipate Institute of , in partner- F market conditions or industry ship with the Bureau of Justice trends and drive sales strategies. Assistance and the Los Angeles Department, held a Predictive Walmart, for example, learned Policing Symposium to discuss this through analysis that when a emerging idea and its impact on the weather event is in the forecast, future of policing. Researchers, law demand for three items rises: duct enforcement officers, crime ana- tape, bottled water and strawberry lysts and scientists gathered in Los Pop-Tarts. Armed with this informa- Angeles for three days to explore the tion, stores in the affected areas implications, issues can ensure their shelves are fully and technology of . stocked to meet customer needs. What Is Predictive Policing? Police can use a similar data analy- sis to help make their more Predictive policing, in essence, is efficient. The idea is being called taking data from disparate sources, “predictive policing,” and some in analyzing them and then using the field believe it has the poten- results to anticipate, prevent tial to transform and respond more effectively by enabling police to anticipate and to future crime. prevent crime instead of simply responding to it.

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Predictive policing entails becoming Moreover, doing them better remains Here are two examples of predictive less reactive. “The predictive vision critical given the current economic policing at work: moves law enforcement from focus- climate. ing on what happened to focusing on Reducing Random Gunfire in what will happen and how to effec- George Gascón, Richmond. Every New Year’s tively deploy resources in front of for the San Francisco Police Eve, Richmond, Va., would experi- crime, thereby changing outcomes,” Department, noted that predictive ence an increase in random gunfire. writes Charlie Beck, chief of the policing is the perfect tool to help Police began looking at data gathered Los Angeles Police Department.1 departments become more efficient over the years, and based on that as budgets continue to be reduced. information, they were able to antici- Beck told participants that perhaps “With predictive policing, we have pate the time, location and nature the greatest benefit to predictive the tools to put cops at the right of future incidents. On New Year’s policing is the of new place at the right time or bring other Eve 2003, Richmond police placed or previously unknown patterns services to impact crime, and we officers at those locations to prevent and trends. Just as Walmart found can do so with less,” he said. crime and respond more rapidly. increased demand for strawberry The result was a 47 percent decrease Pop-Tarts preceding major weather in random gunfire and a 246 per- events, LAPD has found its own cent increase in seized. subtle patterns when examining Predictive policing The department saved $15,000 in data that have helped the depart- personnel costs. ment accurately anticipate and is not meant to replace prevent crime. Connecting and tried-and-true police Code Violations in Arlington, Predictive policing is not meant techniques. It builds on . The Arlington, Texas, Police to replace tried-and-true police Department used data on residential techniques, symposium speakers the essential elements burglaries to identify hot spots and explained. Instead, it borrows then compared these locations to from the principles of problem- of all policing strategies areas with code violations. According oriented policing, community to Chief Theron Bowman, officers policing, -based policing, for the greater good. found that every unit increase of intelligence-led policing and other physical decay resulted in almost proven policing models. six more residential burglaries in the . Thus, neighborhoods with “This is a very important next step So What Does It Look Like greater physical decay could expect to move forward in the evolution- in the Field? greater increases in residential ary process of our profession,” burglaries. Arlington subsequently said Bill Bratton, former LAPD “There is no predictive policing in developed a formula to help iden- chief and chairman of Altegrity Risk a box,” explained Colleen McCue, tify characteristics of these “fragile 2 International. “We are building on president and CEO of MC Solutions, neighborhoods.” The police depart- the essential elements of all policing which provides professional services ment and other city agencies now strategies for the greater good.” in predictive analytics. “Let the prob- work more efficiently in the neigh- lem guide the solution,” she advised. borhoods to help prevent crime. John Morgan, director of NIJ’s Current analytic tools and tech- Office of Science and Technology, But Is This New? added, “This is a framework to niques like hot spots, data , help us organize policing as an , geospatial prediction Some participants questioned information-intensive business and social network analysis can be whether predictive policing was, in an information age. Predictive applied to a broad range of criminal in , a new model. They argued policing is not meant to replace any justice problems. For instance, they that good crime analysts have been other model of policing,” he said. can be used to anticipate localized practicing predictive policing for “Instead, it enables us to do these crime spikes, inform city and neigh- more than 40 years. things better.” borhood planning, and aid in police management decisions.

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“Are we doing anything new or inno- vative with this data or are we just NIJ Funds Predictive Policing Demonstration Initiative doing it better and quicker?” asked Chief Tom Casady of the Lincoln, Neb., Police Department. IJ has launched a demonstration initiative to develop, and Nevaluate predictive policing in a real-world, real-time context. The Casady argued that the idea is not Institute awarded planning grants to seven law enforcement agencies. new. “It is a coalescing of interre- lated police strategies and tactics NIJ has also funded a team from the RAND Corp. to evaluate the that were already around, like projects. The evaluation is designed to address questions such as intelligence-led policing and prob- what works, what does not and what is promising in predictive policing. lem solving. This just brings them all under the umbrella of predictive For more information on the initiative, see http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/ policing,” he said. “What is new is nij/topics/law-enforcement/predictive-policing/symposium/discussion- the tremendous infusion of data,” demonstrations.htm. Casady added.

Referencing the Richmond example, he explained, “We knew there were shootings on New Year’s Eve, and handle information the right way,” policing to put privacy, civil and we knew where they were happen- said Thomas O’Reilly, senior policy civil in the forefront from the ing. So if we could pinpoint the time, advisor at the justice department’s outset,” said Russell Porter, direc- we could put more police in those Bureau of Justice Assistance. “As tor of the of Iowa Intelligence areas. This is pretty basic stuff,” he we move into predictive policing, Fusion Center. said, “and we have been doing this nothing should be secret. We should for years.” Casady said the real ques- engage privacy advocates and com- Participants stressed the importance tion the field should be asking is how munity leaders from the outset to of setting up a thorough privacy to take this to a new level: How do explain the program and get their policy, training personnel to use it we use information to stimulate ideas and input to alleviate their properly, enforcing accountability different interventions? concerns.” and continually refining the policy. should also include what Community Involvement Sean Malinowski, a with information can be shared with Is Critical the LAPD, assured participants that other agencies. predictive policing does not deny Participants agreed that transpar- civil rights. “Police are not arresting “Transparency, auditing and due ency and community involvement people on the probability that they diligence are critical to developing are important. will commit a crime,” he said. “Police a process that is trustworthy, pro- still must have .” In tects privacy and produces good “Community trust is huge as addition, predictive policing methods outcomes,” said Joan McNamara, we move down this path,” Beck do not identify specific individuals; a in the Los Angeles explained. “We need to be extremely instead, they anticipate particular Police Department. transparent. As we advance this times and locations where crime discussion of how law enforcement is likely to occur.2 Bratton added, “If we do this right, will use information and how we tie if we do it constitutionally, collec- that information to officer deploy- Yet privacy and civil issues tively and transparently, we can ment, all of these discussions must are critically interrelated with lessen the concern. We can hear be open.” predictive policing and must be the concerns and move forward, all addressed. “We have a solemn the while expanding and modifying “The community must have con- obligation and a strategic imperative and improving and continuing that fidence that law enforcement will for the success of predictive path of discussion.”

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It Is All About the Data data together, and approach it from a holistic perspective,” Bowman In the end, the success of predictive said. “It is just as important to under- policing will all come down to how stand what we don’t know at the reliable it is, how different informa- local level.” tion sources are integrated and how “We have the ability all the data are analyzed. John Miller of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to use information to “Police departments collect great suggested that the field also looks data all the time,” said Craig Uchida, at “predictive perpetrating.” “We save lives, and president of Justice & Security must ask ourselves: What data Strategies Inc, a company that helps sources have the bad guys pulled we need to use enforcement agencies in evalu- up? We are not the only ones looking ating and addressing program needs. at data,” he warned. constitutionally and “We just don’t know how reliable, valid and clean it is. We need to “It is so important to bring these data consistently,” Bratton oversee data collection to ensure warehouses and analytics together the data are clean.” and to search and make them avail- said. “We are in a able so we can do our job,” Beck position to save lives, Along with watching quality, police said. Malinowski added, “Analyzing departments also need to tap into all of this data will give decision- reduce injuries, improve the wealth of nontraditional data makers better information to make available locally, such as medical better decisions.” and code-compliance data. ... It doesn’t get “We have the ability to use infor- any better than that.” “Predictive policing has another mation to save lives, and we need level outside the walls of the police to use it constitutionally and consis- department,” Jim Bueermann, chief tently,” Bratton said. “We are in a of police in the Redlands, Calif., position to save lives, reduce injuries, Police Department, said. “It takes improve safety … It doesn’t get any a holistic approach — how do we better than that.” integrate and school and land-use data?” Beth Pearsall is a freelance writer and “Part of the challenge is understand- frequent contributor to the NIJ Journal. ing what all the available data are and then finding a way to fuse that data, bring the people who use that NCJ 230414

Notes Check out the recap of the Predictive Policing Symposium 1. Beck, C., and C. McCue, “Predictive on the NIJ Web site: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/topics/ Policing: What Can We Learn From Wal-Mart and Amazon About Fighting law-enforcement/predictive-policing/symposium/welcome.htm. Crime in a Recession?” The Police Chief 76 (11) (November 2009), http:// policechiefmagazine.org/magazine/index. cfm?fuseaction=display_arch&article_ id=1942&issue_id=112009. 2. Ibid.

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