MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update November 2009

Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions,  In the most likely scenario, the majority of households October-December 2009. throughout the country will have food security guaranteed in the next six months, with favorable food availability and access.  The Vulnerability Analysis Group (GAV) from the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SESTAN) estimated that around 281,000 people are and will remain food‐insecure until the harvests in April 2010; most are concentrated in the provinces of Tete, Inhambane, Sofala, and Gaza.  The World Food Program (WFP) still lacks sufficient resources to fully assist the food‐insecure people and is facing an imminent pipeline break from January 2010 onward. Thus far, only 40 percent of needed resources are confirmed. Resource mobilization is needed to respond to newly estimated needs.  The negative rainfall anomalies in south and central zones may indicate a delayed start of rains that are normally expected in early November in the south and mid‐November in the center.  In general, for all markets, food commodity prices are stable, although in some cases, they are still slightly above the five‐ year average. The difference between the current prices and

the five‐year average has been decreasing. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity

Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale

Source: FEWS NET Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Av. FPLM, 2698, 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 258 21 460588; Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. Mobile: 258 82 3050574 [email protected] Fax: 258 21 462657 [email protected]

www.fews.net/mozambique

MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update November 2009

Food security overview

In general, food security has not deteriorated and is expected to remain stable for the whole country until December, except for the arid and semi‐arid zones, where food security is expected to be critical as the hunger season sets in and water availability might become problematic with rains delayed.

The annual vulnerability assessment conducted by the Vulnerability Analysis Figure 2. Spatial distribution of the Group (GAV) from the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition estimated number of people in need until (SESTAN) in August indicates that in the most likely scenario, the majority of April 2010. households throughout the country will have food security guaranteed for the next six months, with favorable food availability and access. In terms of access, about 70 percent of the villages covered by the survey had reasonably functioning markets, and the northern and central provinces have considerable quantities of maize and cassava for trade. Assessment results also showed that the stability of the food prices, and localized increases, have had a positive effect on farmers, improving their buying power.

It is nonetheless estimated that around 281,300 people are and will remain food insecure until the harvests in April 2010, and most of them concentrated in the provinces of Tete, Inhambane, Sofala, and Gaza. As indicated in previous reports, those households are among the most likely to be headed by the elderly and women, have chronically ill members, are asset poor, are likely to have faced a shock that affected food security during the last 12 months, have poor dietary diversity, have no or only one income source, and rely less on purchases as a source of food.

GAV and partners recommend immediate humanitarian assistance for the 281,000 food insecure persons until April 2010. The interventions should be in the form of food aid, and for households in Nampula and Zambezia provinces, in the form of cash transfer, as food is widely available in those Source: Vulnerability Assessment Group, November markets. Although the provinces of Niassa and Cabo Delgado do not face 2009 acute food insecurity, close monitoring is required, because many households there have poor consumption. Furthermore, monitoring is also required along coastal areas where strong winds, tropical depressions, storms, and cyclones are possible, and some households may temporarily face food stress. The basins at risk of flooding, which may inundate and destroy crops in the field and leave many households with limited coping options, also require monitoring.

The World Food Program (WFP) still lacks sufficient resources, with current relief operations ending in December, and is facing a pipeline break beginning in January 2010. Yet, the period between January and March generally is the peak of the hunger season and when the likelihood of floods and cyclones is high. A failure to respond in a timely fashion will cause poorer households to begin employing negative and even extreme coping strategies, including consumption of improper food on a large scale, such as wild foods that are highly toxic. Efforts to ensure resources from January onward are continuing.

As the new agriculture season is starting, households are now busy with land preparation. Farmers are clearing the fields using all available means, including mechanical work, especially among farmer associations. In the south, short‐cycle varieties are becoming more common, given dry conditions during the past 5‐10 years. Also, some farmers are planting as early as possible to avoid the dry spell expected late in the season (due, in part, to El Niño).

Rapid food security assessment in Coastal Nampula districts

FEWS NET and the Nampula Provincial Secretariat of Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) carried out a qualitative rapid food security assessment from November 9‐12 in Moma, Angoche, Mogincual, and Memba districts in coastal Nampula

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update November 2009

Province (See Figure 3). Similarly to the previous assessment, this consisted of key informant interviews with district administrative authorities, agriculture authorities, community leaders, farmers, and household representatives. The assessment also included observations from community visits.

For years, coastal Nampula zone was one of the focus areas of Figure 3. Districts (in orange) covered by the FEWS food insecurity. The levels of food insecurity were mostly NET/SETSAN joint assessment, 9-12 November 2009 derived from the reduced yields of cassava, which was increasingly affected by brown streak virus. The four visited districts used to be net importers, but things have changed substantially and most districts in the area are now food exporters. While normally the peak of hunger period is December to February, this year, food security is guaranteed until February and March. In cases where pockets of food insecurity may occur, district authorities will be capable of handling the situation internally without any external support.

Assessment findings Food security in Moma, Angoche, Mogincual, and Memba districts in the coastal Nampula zone has improved significantly compared with last year. The population is generally food secure and is expected to remain so until the next main harvest in May 2010. It is worth mentioning that in March 2008 the coastal zone of was hit by cyclone “Jokwe,” which caused widespread destruction to housing, infrastructure, and crops, and at least nine deaths. Thanks to government and partner emergency interventions, the recovery was quick and significant. This year’s main production was above the most recent five‐year average and that of last year. Production of the staple foods — including cassava, maize, beans, rice, and groundnuts — was well above

the most recent five‐year average. The sesame crop was Source: FEWS NET similarly good and its production is growing rapidly to the detriment of other cash crops such as cotton.

The clearing of lands is ongoing. Rains are expected beginning in the second half of November, when the first planting will occur in some places; generally, the start of season is determined by 25 mm of rain followed by at least 20 mm within the next two dekads. In general, effective rains are only expected beginning in early December, as it has been during the most recent years. Planting will extend until December/January. The next main harvest is expected in May/June 2010, but green food will be available in February 2010.

Cassava production — mostly from coastal areas — was extraordinarily good this season. In the four visited districts, large stocks of dry cassava could be seen in the markets and at the household level. Some of the main cassava producers are looking for help with the harvest. According to producers, the traditional way of paying1 the locally hired people is not profitable. In general, cassava production has returned to normal despite the small pockets where cassava disease still prevails. Exceptions include the Administrative Post of Mazua in and some areas of the Administrative Post of Larde in Moma district, where farmers are asking for more cassava stakes tolerant to the disease. Fresh cassava is now widely available, as the harvest is ongoing.

While rice production is particularly strong in coastal areas of Moma and Angoche, as one moves into the interior of the four visited districts, cassava is slowly replaced by maize. This year’s production was good. In Mogincual district, for

1 People are hired to harvest cassava and are paid by the two ends of the cassava tuber – the two ends are cut, leaving the main body of the tuber for the owner.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update November 2009

instance, large stocks of maize are still available and producers and traders are seeking a market. Maize, together with rice, is mostly for trading while cassava is mostly for household consumption, although it is also traded, especially now that surpluses are high. This year, pulses production was widespread and quite good, and stocks are available in the markets and at the household level. Prices of groundnuts are low due to high availability in the area. Most traders are roasting the groundnuts to sell locally and in the urban centers.

During the visit, fishing activity was affected by adverse sea conditions. However, fishermen told the mission that this is a normal situation. According to them, fishing has ups and downs due to climate and sea conditions. Also, the impact of the ocean on the economy only extends a few kilometers inland; beyond this, the economy is dominated by field crops and cashews.

Cashew trees are widespread across the zone and in the interior zones in the province, owned and managed on a small scale at the family level, with most families owning at least a few trees. Cashew nuts play an important role as a complementary or even supplementary item for food security. Currently, cashew nuts are widely available, as households gather them for own consumption and sale. This is expected to last until January 2010. Cashew nuts are widely used for the traditional drinks that are sold as an income source. Cashew drink is also given as payment to casual laborers who weed the planted fields. In general, the trees are relatively old and productivity is low, causing many to give their trees little attention and to accept whatever they receive from the trees, rather than seeing them as a crop to be actively managed. Capital shortfalls have meant that farmers have sought government support in renovation, an ongoing but phased process, contingent upon resource availability.

Cash crops such as sesame are growing notably. Cotton is the traditional cash crop in the area, but sesame, which was introduced recently, has been taken up quickly and shows great promise; most households are producing it for sale to increase income. Consumption crops include millet and sorghum, although in small amounts. Mangoes and oranges are also currently available.

Most food comes from within the districts themselves, although there is some supply of maize and even cassava from outside some of the districts. The current prices of staple foods are relatively low. Prices are below those of last year during the same period, but slightly above the most recent five‐year period. However, in general, households think that prices are low, given their purchasing power. Food access is good to very good. Most households have enough food stocks to last until February/March 2010. By February 2010, most green food will be widely available, meaning that the bridge between February and the beginning of next main harvest in April/May 2010 will not be a problem. A variety of locally produced crops can be observed in the markets including cassava, groundnuts, beans and, unprocessed rice. Although fishing experienced some problems during the visit, dried fish could also be seen in the market. The main markets are in the urban centers of Angoche and Moma districts. Most food items enter and exit the zone via these markets. There are no access problems within the zone. Dry cassava is the most traded commodity, and much of this is sourced from within the zone. Moma District is a surplus area (especially the post of Chaluaua) that supplies Angoche, a deficit area (especially because of the main town). The main commodity coming from outside the zone is maize flour.

Recommendations:  Although the overall picture of food security is good and expected to remain so until the next main harvest, close monitoring is recommended, especially during the peak of the hunger period (December‐March). As the country is starting the 2009/10 agriculture season, the provision of seeds — including the brown streak virus‐tolerant cassava varieties stakes — is strongly recommended. This recommendation is particularly true for the Administrative Post of Mazua in Memba district and the administrative Post of Larde in Moma district, where the brown streak virus is still worrisome.  Another recommendation includes the need to promote the flow of food commodities such as cassava, groundnut, and beans. Large quantities of dry cassava are available at the local producer, market, and household levels. These stocks of cassava are likely to remain in storage until the harvest next year. Due to long distances from the urban and trading centers, access roads need to be improved to reduce transaction costs.  The expansion of the positive pilot experience in some zones, which consist of supporting local traders in purchasing surpluses from farmers to store and sell back during the hunger period, especially from December to February, is also recommended. Food reserves in the hands of local traders will not only respond to food availability during the hunger

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update November 2009

period, but also will easily allow local authorities to purchase food to immediately respond to any emerging food crises within the district before turning to external support. Preventive measures to stop or minimize uncontrolled fires are also required.

Seasonal summary: late start of rains in parts of southern and central zones

The first ten days of November were characterized by below‐normal rainfall in parts of southern and central zones. However, October was characterized by near‐normal rains in all the country, as seen in Figure 4, which shows the satellite‐ derived rainfall anomaly estimates, and Table 1, which shows the observed against the normal rainfall recorded in the ground stations from the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM). This picture has marked the official launching of the 2009/10 agriculture season in the country. Late October was also characterized by above‐normal rains in parts of the northern region, especially in central Niassa. However, these rains are still off season for the northern region, as effective rains are not normally expected until December.

Figure 4. Satellite-derived rainfall anomaly estimates 1-10 October 2009 11-20 October 2009 21-31 October 2009 1-10 November 2009 Legend

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Households are now preparing the land for planting, which will begin with the effective onset of the rains. In early November (1‐10), parts of the southern region and parts of the central region received below‐average to near‐average rains. The negative anomalies in the south and central zones may delay the expected start of rains that is normally expected in early November in the south and mid‐November in the center. The remainder of November will be crucial to determine the overall situation concerning the onset of rains in south and central zones. While currently, rains are occuring sporadically here and there, they are not yet sustained, and therefore planting is still not recommended since recently planted crops may not obtain adequate moisture for good growth and development. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the agro‐climatic conditions based on field visits, field information, remote sensing products, and ground station information.

The forecast for the current season indicates the likelihood of normal to above‐normal rainfall in the south and central zones, and above‐normal to normal in the north of the country during the first half of the season (October‐December 2009) and normal to below‐normal in the south, normal to above‐normal in center, and above‐normal to normal in the north during the second half of the season (January‐March 2010). As part of its disaster preparedness, the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC), through the Technical Council for Disaster Management (CTGC), has developed this season’s contingency plan. This plan pays special attention to potential flooding in at‐risk zones along the main river basins. As usual, the National Directorate of Water has recommended that special attention be paid to the basins without dam facilities to weaken flood waves, namely Montepuez, Licungo, Mutamba, Pungué, Buzi, Save, and Maputo. In the Zambezi basin, due to the forecast of excessive rains in the neighboring countries upstream and the fact that the soil moisture index is relatively high, there is near‐average to high probability of floods. Localized inundations may also occur in other sub‐basins not mentioned above. Extreme weather events may include tropical depressions, storms, or cyclones. Such events are likely during the rainy season, pose a risk to crop production, and may displace people and disrupt local livelihoods, necessitating emergency humanitarian assistance, as was the case in 2007 and 2008.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update November 2009

Staple food prices stable Table 1. Observed vs. normal rainfall (30-year average) at selected ground stations, November 1-20. Source: INAM

Food commodities prices have been stable since the Observed Normal beginning of the marketing year in May 2009. In most Region Station Name Rainfall Rainfall Anomalies (mm) (mm) monitored markets, prices went down in May as the harvest was fully taking place in much of the country (see the price MOC. DA PRAIA 11.0 6.6 4.4 annex). Since then, prices have been following the normal PEMBA 7.5 11.6 ‐4.1 seasonal curve except in Chokwe, where some fluctuations LICHINGA 22.5 22.3 0.2 NORTH have occurred, especially in beans during July/August, when CUAMBA 0.4 13.9 ‐13.5 prices went up against the normal curve and now with rice NAMPULA 0.0 26.9 ‐26.9 prices departing beyond the normal curve. Failure in the LUMBO 0.0 5.0 ‐5.0 supply chains combined with exhaustion of maize may be the TETE 0.0 7.8 ‐7.8 reason behind this abnormal rise in the price of rice in ANGOCHE 0.0 10.6 ‐10.6 Chokwe. However, again in Chokwe, bean prices have CENTER QUELIMANE 3.4 18.1 ‐14.7 returned to normal after an abnormal increase from June to CHIMOIO 6.3 27.7 ‐21.4 September. In general, for all other markets and BEIRA 35.1 34.2 0.9 commodities, prices are stable, although in some cases they VILANCULOS 0.0 15.0 ‐15.0 are still slightly above the five‐year average. As time passed, PANDA 0.2 26.6 ‐26.4 the difference between the actual prices and the five‐year INHAMBANE 0.0 26.5 ‐26.5 average decreased, meaning this year’s prices were stable. SOUTH XAI‐XAI 0.0 26.1 ‐26.1 Some monitored markets, for instance, have already reached MAPUTO/MAV. 1.1 26.1 ‐25.0 or even dropped below average, such as Manica for maize CHANGALANE 0.0 26.1 ‐26.1

and beans, and Maputo, Nampula, and Tete all for beans. MAPUTO/OBS 0.9 26.1 ‐25.2

In a recent field trip to coastal Nampula province — namely Angoche, Moma, Mogincual, and Memba — market assessments revealed that prices of staple foods such as cassava, maize, groundnuts, and beans are relatively low compared to the same period last year. For instance, a 50 Kg bag of cassava currently costs 230 to 250 MTs against the 270 to 280 MTs that it cost last year.

The current food price stability is a result of the good 2008/09 agriculture season. This year, estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that 2008/09 cereal production (including maize, sorghum, millet, and rice) was about 2.6 million MT, an increase of 14 percent from last year and 26.5 percent above the five‐year average. The production of pulses at the national level was estimated to be 409,630 MT, nearly 7 percent higher than last year and close to 16 percent above average. In all three regions of the country, the production of pulses was above last year’s level and the five‐year average.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009

Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food commodities. Maize is the staple food for the poor, with rice most often used as a substitute. Beans are important to all wealth groups. Each of the markets represented here act as indicators for the broader region. Tete is representative for the province by the same name, Nampula is the main market in the north and is representative for the region, and has linkages with the interior of Zambezia and Nampula provinces and coastal Nampula. Beira, Gorongosa, and Manica market has links with Chimoio market, which has links with Gorongosa and southern markets. The Chokwe and Maputo markets in the south are linked to the Chimoio, Manica, and Gorongosa markets in the central region. Chókwe is the reference market for the southern region, except Maputo, the capital.

Monthly prices are supplied by the market information system in Mozambique.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin November 2009

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