April 2020

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: The Women, Peace and Security Agenda at 20 are being discussed. It seems that for the open 3 Status Update since our This is the first Monthly Forecast to be VTCs, besides the briefers, members whose March Forecast distributed solely in electronic format since interests are affected may be invited to partici- 5 Colombia Security Council Report began publishing in pate (under rule 37), but it was less clear if other November 2005. Because of the COVID-19 member states would be able to do so. Closed 7 Mali pandemic, New York City, the UN Secretariat meetngs would only involve Council members. 9 Western Sahara and many member states have placed restric- While to some extent they follow the traditional 10 Syria tions on non-essential workers, who have format of public briefings in the chamber and 12 Yemen been required to stay at home. Hard cop- closed consultations, members have not agreed to 13 Protection of Civilians: ies of this Forecast would go largely to empty consider them as official meetings of the Council Conflict and Hunger offices, while the distribution itself would add or to reflect them in the UN Journal. unnecessary risk. The COVID-19 pandemic On the first working day of the month, fol- 14 Great Lakes Region has touched every region of the world, and lowing a closed VTC to agree to the work of the 15 Middle East (Israel/ has hit New York City hard. Now as since its Council in April, the president is expected to issue Palestine) first meeting in 1946, the Security Council a Presidency Addendum on that work plan. The 17 Kosovo remains tasked with the maintenance of inter- Presidency Addendum would replace the custom- 18 Youth, Peace and national peace and security, and there is high ary Programme of Work. Security interest in how the Council organises itself The Dominican Republic has chosen to hold 19 Sudan/South Sudan and addresses aspects of this changing global an open debate on youth, peace and security environment. In the midst of the current cri- late in the month. Secretary-General António sis, Security Council Report will continue to Guterres may brief along with civil society repre- provide independent, objective information sentatives from youth-led organisations. A resolu- and analysis on the Council’s activities and tion is a possible outcome. those of its subsidiary bodies. An open briefing is expected on theprotection of civilians from hunger during conflict. Expected Karin Landgren briefers are the Executive Director of the World Executive Director Food Programme, David Beasley, Director Gen- eral of the Food and Agriculture Organisation, Qu The Dominican Republic has the Security Coun- Dongyu and the Secretary General of the Norwe- cil presidency in April. With COVID-19 still likely gian Refugee Council, Jan Egeland. A presidential to make physical meetings difficult, the Council is statement is a possible outcome. expected to continue to use the provisional mea- The quarterly open debate on Israel/Palestine sures set out in the 27 March letter from Ambas- is also anticipated this month. sador Zhang Jun (China), the March president of Other Middle East issues in April include: the Security Council. Other new working meth- • Syria: Open and closed VTC briefing on the ods may be agreed to during the month. political and humanitarian situation and closed Resolutions will be adopted through a 24-hour VTC on the use of chemical weapons; and written procedure and presidential statements • Yemen, closed VTC on developments in the through electronic agreement. Results will be country. 31 March 2020 announced by the Council president by video Regarding African issues, the Council will This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. teleconferencing (VTC). There are no mandate discuss developments in relation to UNISFA in renewals that require adoption in April, but if Abyei and Sudan/South Sudan in open and closed For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please members choose to adopt a resolution or presi- VTC meetings. subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” dential statement following a meeting, the adop- Other African issues include: series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. tion will follow these new working methods. • Great Lakes, open VTC briefing on the imple- Meetings will be held via VTC and at press mentation of the 2013 Peace, Security and time it seems that open and closed VTC meetings Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Overview

region, and other developments, An open and closed VTC are expected The Council is expected to follow devel- • Mali, open and closed VTC on develop- on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on opments in the Democratic Republic of the ments in Mali; and Colombia. Congo, South Sudan and Sudan closely and • Western Sahara, closed VTC briefing on Regarding European issues, there will be may hold VTC briefings if needed. MINURSO. an open VTC briefing onKosovo .

In Hindsight: The Women, Peace and Security Agenda at 20

Ahead of this year’s 20th anniversary of Secu- the Council—China, Russia and the US— Our report also examines developments rity Council resolution 1325, the inaugural expressed opposition to several aspects of the involving Council sanctions regimes. During resolution on women, peace and security of text, and at various stages of the process, all the period covered by our report (1 January 31 October 2000, a closer look at the current three threatened to use their veto. The ini- 2017 to 31 December 2019), five sanctions state of the agenda is warranted: is the agen- tial text had ambitious goals to progressively regimes established listing criteria for individ- da regressing, progressing or being main- develop the agenda, such as the establishment uals and entities for targeted sanctions related tained? Security Council Report’s upcoming of a formal Security Council subsidiary body to sexual and gender-based violence: the 2127 research report Women, Peace and Security: on conflict-related sexual violence. This idea, Central African Republic Sanctions Commit- The Agenda at 20 argues that the Council however, did not resonate with a number of tee and the 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee should focus its attention on the implementa- Council members. One of the most striking in 2017; the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, tion as well as the maintenance of the agenda. developments during the negotiations was the the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee, and Several examples of Council decisions, high- challenge to previously agreed language on the the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee lighted in our report, illustrate the divisions sexual and reproductive health rights of victims in 2018. Resolution 2441 of 5 November 2018 among Council members and the threat that of sexual violence, showing the difficulty of on the Libya sanctions regime was adopted the agenda faces even when Council mem- maintaining existing norms and commitments with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions bers’ intentions are to restate parts of the pertaining to the women, peace and security (China and Russia). The two countries did not existing normative framework. agenda. This led some observers, including civ- agree that a separate criterion for sexual and Resolution 1325 recognised that armed il society advocates, to question the insistence gender-based violence was necessary. Follow- conflict has a differential and disproportion- on seeking a resolution at a time when the US ing the addition of these listing criteria, one ate impact on women. It further acknowl- administration’s reservations about sexual and individual was listed under the Mali sanctions edged that equal participation by women reproductive health rights were well known. regime and two individuals were listed under in the maintenance of international peace The resolution was ultimately adopted with 13 the South Sudan sanctions regime. and security, an expansion of women’s roles votes in favour and two abstentions (China and The Informal Expert Group (IEG) on in preventing and resolving conflict, and Russia; for more details, please also see our 2 women, peace and security, established by women’s protection can all contribute to May 2019 What’s in Blue story). resolution 2242 of 13 October 2015, has the Council’s fulfilling its mandate of pro- With resolution 2493, South Africa had consolidated a practice of regular meet- moting and maintaining international peace intended to focus on the “full implementa- ings on developments related to the women, and security. The Council’s normative work tion” of the women, peace and security agen- peace and security agenda in countries on developed accordingly along four main paths: da. Women’s sexual and reproductive health the Council’s agenda. It is chaired by two protection, participation, prevention, and rights were never explicitly mentioned in any Council members, currently the Dominican relief and recovery. This includes, for example, of the drafts. The US apparently argued that Republic and Germany. UN Women acts as the protection of women from conflict-relat- its national position on sexual and reproduc- the secretariat of the IEG, organising and pre- ed sexual violence, and the participation of tive health meant that it could not support paring its meetings. The IEG provides a space women in peace processes, political processes, the implementation of the entirety of the for systematic discussions of country-specific the prevention of conflict, and peacebuild- agenda, as that would include Council reso- situations between senior UN representatives ing. Recent efforts to develop this framework lutions that referred to these rights. While from the field and Council members’ coun- further—namely with resolutions 2467 and the resolution was adopted by consensus and try experts and women, peace and security 2493 adopted in 2019—have shown the dif- includes the formulation “full implementa- experts; usually, there is a follow-up meet- ficult political environment at the Council as tion” (the US reportedly having argued for ing a few months after a country situation is well as the risk of rolling back the agenda. “effective implementation” instead), following discussed. According to the IEG’s guidelines During the negotiations on resolution 2467 the adoption the US representative said that (S/2016/1106), its goal is to inform the work on conflict-related sexual violence, initiated the US could not “accept references to sexual of the Council and UN activities in the field by Germany, three permanent members of and reproductive health”. and to “mainstream the agenda”.

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 In Hindsight: The Women, Peace and Security Agenday at 20

Between February 2016 and June 2019, resolution that initially “welcomed” the work thematic areas”. The number of female civil the IEG held 27 country-specific meetings. of the IEG had to be reformulated to “not- society briefers has steadily increased. They included four meetings each on the ing” its work. Generally, it seems that the Looking ahead to the 20th anniversary Central African Republic and Iraq; three majority of Council members, relevant parts of resolution 1325 in October, the research meetings apiece on Afghanistan, the Dem- of the UN system, and civil society agree that shows an environment unconducive to a pro- ocratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and the IEG works well as an informal body and gressive development of the agenda or even Yemen; two meetings each on the Lake Chad that there is no desire to push for anchoring for the restating of previously agreed lan- Basin and Libya; and one meeting each on it within the subsidiary body system of the guage. While this may change, until it does, Mali and the Sahel, Myanmar and South Council, such as transforming it into a work- the wisest way to mark the anniversary may Sudan. This format has not gone unchal- ing group. be by actively pursuing the implementation of lenged, however. Attempts to strengthen the Resolution 2242 expressed the Council’s the women, peace and security agenda. role of the co-chairs during the negotiations “intention to invite civil society, including on resolution 2493 failed because of the resis- women’s organizations, to brief the Council in tance of some members. A paragraph in the country-specific considerations and relevant

Status Update since our March Forecast

Iraq South Sudan consultations. In February, the Georgian per- On 3 March, the Council received a brief- On 4 March, the Council was briefed by manent representative wrote to the Council ing by the Special Representative of the David Shearer, Special Representative of the regarding a large-scale cyberattack launched Secretary-General and head of UNAMI, Secretary-General and head of UNMISS, on against the Georgian Government and media Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most the Secretary-General’s 90-day report. Shear- websites in October 2019 (S/2020/135). The recent developments in the situation in Iraq er reported on several positive developments meeting was initiated by Estonia, the UK and and on the two latest Secretary-General’s in the country and said that UNMISS had the US. In a joint statement to the media after reports—on UNAMI and on the issue of stepped up its protective presence to build the meeting, the three members attributed missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals confidence in areas of return. Betty Sunday, the responsibility for these cyberattacks to and missing Kuwaiti property, including the Coordinator of the Women’s Monthly Forum Russian military intelligence agencies and national archives (S/PV.8739). The briefing on the Peace and Political Process in South said that these actions represent a wider pat- was followed by consultations. Sudan, briefed the Council as a civil society tern of Russia’s activities. Russia has denied representative by video-teleconference from these accusations and emphasised that there Guinea-Bissau Juba. The briefing was followed by consulta- is no evidence to support these claims. On 4 March, Council members discussed tions. Also on 4 March, Council members Guinea-Bissau in consultations under “any issued a press statement that welcomed the DPRK other business” with Special Representative formation of a Revitalised Transitional Gov- On 5 March, the Council held a meeting and head of UNIOGBIS Rosine Sori-Cou- ernment of National Unity (SC/14137). On under “any other business” to raise concerns libaly. Niger requested the session in light of 12 March, the Security Council unanimously over the 1 March ballistic missile test con- the political deterioration that followed the adopted resolution 2514 renewing the man- ducted by the DPRK. After the meeting, Bel- 27 February swearing-in ceremony of Umaro date of UNMISS until 15 March 2021 (S/ gium, Estonia, France, Germany and the UK Sissoco Embaló at a hotel in Bissau despite PV.8744). The resolution maintains the made a joint statement at the media stakeout. a legal challenge to the election results still overall force levels at their mandated ceilings They condemned the missile test and empha- being under consideration by the Supreme of 17,000 troops and 2,101 police person- sised that these activities constitute a viola- Court of Justice (STJ) (subsequently, the nel. The four core elements of the mandate tion of Security Council resolutions. On 30 military occupied government institutions, remain largely unchanged, namely protecting March, the Council adopted resolution 2515, including the STJ). On 5 March, Council civilians, creating the conditions conducive to renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts members issued a press statement calling on the delivery of humanitarian assistance, sup- supporting the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Com- the parties “to respect the legal and constitu- porting the peace process, and monitoring mittee until 30 March 2021. On 31 March, tional frameworks and the democratic pro- and investigating human rights. Council members discussed the recent bal- cess to resolve the post-electoral crisis”. They listic missile launches by the DPRK under further “called on ECOWAS to urgently send Cyber Threats “any other business” at the conclusion of the a high-level political mission to Guinea-Bis- On 5 March, Council members discussed closed VTC meeting on UNAMA. Belgium, sau” to help resolve the crisis (SC/14138). the issue of cyber threats and hybrid war- Estonia, France, Germany, Poland, and the fare during the “any other business” part of UK issued a statement following the meeting

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our March Forecast

condemning the DPRK’s continued efforts on the latest Secretary-General’s report on of the AU Commission, requested in reso- to develop its ballistic missile programs and UNAMA, issued on 17 March (S/2020/210). lution 2495, did not take place as planned, operate its nuclear weapons programme. Council members agreed on press elements as Council meetings were postponed due afterwards, in which they expressed concern to measures taken to prevent the spread of The Informal Working Group on at the impact of COVID-19 in Afghanistan COVID-19. The quarterly briefing by the Documentation (IWG) and Other and called on all Afghan parties to implement chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Commit- Procedural Questions. a comprehensive ceasefire and ensure access tee, Ambassador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia), On 6 March, the IWG held a formal meeting to humanitarian aid. They further called on similarly did not take place in March. On 30 to discuss its plans for 2020–2021. During the the political leadership in Afghanistan to set- March the Council adopted resolution 2517 meeting, chaired by Ambassador Inga Rhon- tle their differences and expressed hope that regarding the drawdown and exit of UNA- da King (St. Vincent and the Grenadines), intra-Afghan negotiations will commence MID and establishing a follow-on presence, members discussed issues such as penholder- without delay, while bearing in mind the dif- in accordance with resolution 2495 ship, strengthening the engagement between ficulties posed by the spread of COVID-19. chairs of sanctions committees and penhold- Democratic Republic of the Congo ers, and how the Council can balance trans- Counter-Terrorism On 24 March, Council members held a video parency, efficiency, and effectiveness. On 11 March, the Council held a debate titled teleconference on MONUSCO and the situ- “Countering terrorism and extremism in Africa” ation in the DRC, including the response to Central African Republic under the agenda item “Peace and security in COVID-19 in country. Special Representa- On 9 March, the 2127 CAR Sanctions Africa”, a signature event of China’s Coun- tive Leila Zerrougui and Under-Secretary- Committee held informal consultations dur- cil presidency (S/PV.8743). Under-Secretary- General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre ing which the Coordinator of the Panel of General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Lacroix briefed Council members. After the Experts provided an overview of the panel’s Rosemary DiCarlo, Assistant Secretary-Gener- meeting, Council members agreed to press 7 February 2020 progress update. The pan- al and Director of the UNDP Bureau for Pol- elements. They encouraged work towards el was supposed to present its work plan to icy and Programme Support Abdoulaye Mar a sustainable exit for MONUSCO and wel- the committee during a meeting scheduled Dieye and Ambassador Fatima Kyari Moham- comed the role of regional states. They also about a week later. However, the second med (AU Permanent Observer) briefed. The welcomed the progress made against Ebo- meeting did not take place as Council meet- EU, Japan and 15 African member states la while recognising the challenges that lay ings were postponed due to measures taken made statements as well. A presidential state- ahead with COVID-19. by the Security Council to prevent the spread ment was adopted during the meeting (S/ of COVID-19. The work plan has since been PRST/2020/5). On 23 March, as mandated Somalia presented to the committee in written form. by resolution 2462 on combatting the financ- The Council was initially set to renew the ing of terrorism, a “joint special meeting” of the mandate of UNSOM on 25 March. Due to Afghanistan 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee and the the difficulty of holding physical meetings, On 10 March, the Security Council adopted 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida given measures taken to prevent the spread resolution 2513, which welcomed the prog- Sanctions Committee “on terrorist financing of COVID-19, members agreed on a techni- ress towards a political settlement of the war threats and trends as well as on the implemen- cal rollover of the mandate. On 30 March the in Afghanistan facilitated by the 29 February tation of the provisions of this resolution” was Council adopted resolution 2516 renewing “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghani- scheduled to take place. That date was in line the mandate until 30 June. stan” (S/2020/184) signed by the US and with the requirement of resolution 2426 that the Taliban and the “Joint Declaration for the meeting take place within 12 months after Libya Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” (S/2020/185) the adoption of that resolution. In a 20 March On 26 March, Council members convened issued by the US and the Afghan government letter (S/2020/220), the chairs of the two com- an informal video teleconference meeting on (S/PV.8742). On 26 March, Council mem- mittees announced that the meeting would be UNSMIL. Acting Special Representative and bers issued a press statement in which they postponed “on an exceptional basis in the light head of UNSMIL Stephanie Williams briefed. condemned a terrorist attack that took place of the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 Council members agreed on press elements at a Sikh-Hindu temple in Kabul on 25 March [...] in order to reduce unnecessary exposure to afterwards, including expressions of concern 2020 (SC/14147). The Islamic State of Iraq health risks”. “at the significant escalation of hostilities” and and the Levant–Khorasan Province claimed “the possible impact of the COVID-19 pan- responsibility for the attack, which resulted in Sudan (Darfur) demic”. They further “called on the parties the death of at least 25 people. On 31 March, On 12 March, Council members issued a to de-escalate the fighting urgently, to imme- Security Council members held an informal press statement condemning the attack on diately cease hostilities and to ensure unhin- video teleconferece meeting on the situation Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s dered access of humanitarian aid throughout in Afghanistan and the activities of UNAMA. convoy in Khartoum on 9 March (SC/14143). the country”. Originally scheduled for 27 Ingrid Hayden, Deputy Special Representa- A briefing on the special report (S/2020/202) March as the bimonthly briefing and con- tive of UNAMA, briefed Council members of the Secretary-General and the Chairperson sultations on UNSMIL and Libya sanctions,

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Status Update since our March Forecast the meeting was rescheduled and the format MEETINGS NOT HELD IN MARCH of Disputes” which was scheduled for 19 was changed in line with adjustments to the DUE TO COVID-19-RELATED March did not take place. Council’s working methods due to the impact CHANGES IN THE SECURITY of COVID-19. COUNCIL’S PROGRAMME OF Lebanon (1701) WORK The Council consultations on the Secretary- Peacekeeping Operations General’s report on the implementation of On 30 March, the Security Council adopt- 1540 Committee resolution 1701, covering the period from 1 ed resolution 2518 on improving safety and The chair of the 1540 Committee, Ambas- November 2019 to 18 February (S/2020/195), security of peacekeepers. This resolution sador Dian Triansyah Djani (Indonesia), was scheduled for 17 March, did not take place. was initially intended to be adopted during scheduled to brief the Council on 17 March an open debate on the issue, one of China’s on the work of the committee, which deals UNDOF signature events during its presidency, (origi- with the non-proliferation of weapons of mass The Council’s consultations on UNDOF, ini- nally scheduled for 24 March). Since mea- destruction. The meeting was postponed. tially scheduled for 26 March, did not take sures announced by the Secretary-General to place. address COVID-19 included a partial closure Open Debate on Multilateralism and of UN headquarters that began on 16 March, the Political Settlement of Disputes and Council members were unable to meet in An open debate titled “Upholding Multilater- person, the open debate was cancelled. alism and Promoting the Political Settlement

Colombia

Expected Council Action elections since the signing of the 2016 Final government’s “peace with legality” strategy, the In April, the Council expects to receive a Agreement for Ending the Conflict and environment, and youth. A report summarising briefing from Special Representative and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace between the findings of the national conversation was head of the UN Verification Mission in the government of Colombia and the rebel supposed to be issued by 15 March, but at the Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias time of writing its release had been postponed developments and the Secretary-General’s de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC- to an unknown date because of the outbreak of 90-day report on the mission, published on EP) and the first elections in which former COVID-19. Several protests took place across 26 March. As was the practice in 2018 and FARC-EP members participated. the country during the first months of 2020, 2019, the Council is likely to issue a press On 20 February, the mayor of Bogotá, in with a protest planned for 25 March being sus- statement following the 90-day briefing. At cooperation with Colombian civil society pended due to the outbreak of COVID-19. the time of writing, it was unclear whether organisations, convened a summit on “Ter- Violence against communities and the kill- the briefing would be held exactly as planned ritorial Peace”. At the meeting, mayors and ing of former FARC-EP members, human because of the COVID-19 outbreak. governors from different regions of the coun- rights defenders, and social leaders have The mandate of the verification mission try launched the “National Network of Local continued unabated in 2020. According to expires on 25 September. Authorities for Peace” and promised to incor- a spokesperson for the UN High Commis- porate steps to implement the 2016 peace sioner for Human Rights, at least ten human Key Recent Developments agreement in their local development plans. rights defenders were reportedly killed during At the outset of 2020, Colombia experienced Following popular protests in Novem- the first 13 days of the year. As of 26 March, a period of relative calm in contrast to the ber 2019, at which citizens expressed their 16 former combatants had been killed in last quarter of 2019, which was marked by demand for a comprehensive implementation 2020. This toll can be viewed as a continu- complicated electoral dynamics and wide- of the peace agreement, among other things, ation of the worrying trend in 2019, which spread popular demonstrations. Following Colombian President Iván Duque Márquez saw the killing of 77 former combatants—the the local and municipal elections that took launched a “national conversation” on 26 highest number of victims since the signing place on 27 October 2019, new local authori- November 2019 between government repre- of the peace agreement–and the killing of at ties—including mayors, governors, and mem- sentatives and different sectors of civil society. least 108 human rights defenders. The vio- bers of municipal councils—assumed office The conversation, which spanned several meet- lence continues to be most prevalent in rural across Colombia on 1 January. The October ings in late 2019, revolved around six themes: areas with limited state presence–in particu- elections were the first local and municipal inclusive growth, transparency, education, the lar the Cauca, Nariño, Antioquia, Caquetá

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2487 (12 September 2019) renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia until 25 September 2020. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/239 (26 March 2020) was the 90-day report. S/2019/988 (26 December 2019) was the 90-day report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8702 (13 January 2020) was a briefing by Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu. Security Council Press Statement SC/14081 (15 January 2020) reiterated the support of Council members for the peace process in Colombia.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Colombia and Norte de Santander departments–where a national “state of penal emergency” and legality” focuses on reintegration of ex-combat- there is heightened activity by illegal armed pledged to take action to forestall the spread ants through territorial entities, eradication of groups and criminal structures. of the virus in the country’s prisons. illicit crops and combating armed groups. The In his 26 December 2019 report, the Secre- On 30 March, the guerrilla group ELN government’s “peace with legality” strategy has tary-General called for the reconvening of the announced on its official website its intention been continuously criticised by members of the National Commission on Security Guarantees, to implement a one-month unilateral cease- FARC party as a narrow interpretation of the the body charged under the peace agreement fire which will begin on 1 April with the aim 2016 peace agreement. with the development of a public policy on of facilitating the response to COVID-19 in the dismantling of criminal organisations and the country. It emphasised, however, that Human Rights-Related Developments their support networks. After a long hiatus, this is an “active” ceasefire, since the group During its 43rd session, the Human Rights Council (HRC) considered on 27 February the High Com- the commission was convened by Duque on 9 reserves the right to respond to attacks from missioner for Human Rights’ annual report on the January. According to government officials, the government forces or other armed groups. activities of OHCHR in Colombia (A/HRC/43/3/ purpose of the meeting was to ensure that the Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued Add.3). The report assessed the human rights positions of civil society be reflected in future a statement welcoming the announcement, situation in Colombia in 2019, with a focus on the public policy on the matter. On 23 January, a while expressing hope that the measure will situation of human rights defenders; the use of the military in situations related to public secu- technical session was held to consider the pro- allow the government to fight the spread of rity; the fight against impunity; and inequalities in posals presented by civil society and to estab- the virus and will give respite to communities the enjoyment of economic, social and cultural lish a roadmap for the drafting of the policy. and vulnerable groups affected by violence. rights. The report outlined “persistently high levels On 14 February, the guerrilla group He further called on other armed groups to of violence generating serious human rights viola- Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) adopt similar measures. tions”, including attacks on human rights defend- ers and indigenous peoples; an increase in cases announced a 48-hour long “armed strike” The Security Council last discussed of alleged arbitrary deprivation of life; and grave in several departments. During the “strike”, Colombia on 13 January, when it received a human rights violations committed against chil- civilians were instructed by the group to not briefing from Ruiz Massieu and held consul- dren. It also assessed the implementation of leave their homes or use means of transpor- tations on the topic. On 15 January, mem- the human rights aspects of the peace agree- tation. Several incidents of violence took bers of the Security Council issued a press ment and includes recommendations for improv- place during the strike, including attacks on statement in which they reaffirmed their com- ing the human rights situation. (On 30 October 2019, the host country agreement between the security forces which resulted in the death of mitment to working closely with Colombia to government and OHCHR was renewed until 31 one soldier. Following the strike, civil society make progress in implementation of the peace October 2022.) groups called for a renewed dialogue between agreement. The statement expressed grave The HRC also considered the report the government and the ELN. concern regarding the targeting of commu- of the special rapporteur on the situation As of 22 March, Colombia had 277 con- nity and social leaders as well as former FARC of human rights defenders, Michel Forst, on his visit to Colombia (A/HRC/43/51/Add.1). firmed cases of COVID-19 and had reported combatants and called for effective govern- two fatalities from the virus. On 17 March, ment action to improve security, including the Presidential Counsellor for Stabilization through the extension of state presence to Key Issues and Options and Consolidation, Emilio Archila, indicat- conflict-effected areas. It also welcomed the The key issue for the Council remains to sup- ed the government’s commitment to con- meeting of the National Commission on port the implementation of the peace agree- tinue implementing programmes related to Security Guarantees earlier in the month and ment in Colombia. The need to implement the implementation of the peace agreement, noted that Council members are looking for- the agreement fully—as opposed to focus- regardless of the difficulties posed by mea- ward to the development of a public policy to ing on only select aspects—continues to be sures put in place to contain the spread of the dismantle illegal armed groups in the country. an issue, acknowledged by members of the virus. The governmental Agency for Reinte- On 19 March, Colombia signed an agree- Council in a series of recent statements that gration and Normalization (ARN) which is in ment with the UN on a new Sustainable stressed the interlocking nature of the differ- charge of carrying out plans for the reintegra- Development Cooperation Framework for ent elements of the accord. tion of former combatants, has affirmed that 2020-2023. Prior to the signing of the agree- Council members might be interested to the measures to counter COVID-19 will not ment, Duque met with Secretary-General hear more about the role that can be played affect the payment of monthly allowances for António Guterres in New York on 9 March. In by local authorities in implementing the peace former combatants. a press stake-out following the meeting, Duque agreement, such as local development plans Between 22 and 23 March, riots erupted announced that the agreement focuses on han- that are intended to assist with the reintegra- in 13 penitentiaries across Colombia, result- dling of the migrant population in Colombia, tion of former FARC combatants. As has ing in the deaths of at least 23 inmates and cooperation on the 2030 Sustainable Develop- been the case with previous Council meetings 83 injured. The riots were reportedly sparked ment Goals and “peace with legality” (a term on Colombia, several Council members are by inmates’ concerns that the authorities are used by Duque’s government to describe its likely to express concern regarding the per- taking insufficient measures to protect prison strategy with regard to the implementation of sistent levels of violence against ex-combat- facilities from the spread of COVID-19. Fol- the 2016 peace agreement). In comments to ants, community leaders and human rights lowing the riots, the government announced the press, Duque outlined that “peace with defenders while stressing the need to protect

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Colombia women and ethnic communities. Council The UN Verification Mission was estab- members may wish to consider possible mod- members may want to seek further informa- lished in accordance with the 2016 agreement, ifications to the mission’s mandate to corre- tion on progress in devising a public policy which stipulated an initial three-year duration, spond with developments in the implementa- for dismantling criminal organisations and of “renewable if necessary”. That initial period tion of the agreement. measures taken by the government to protect will end in September 2020. Duque, however, vulnerable communities that are affected by has already expressed his wish for the mission Council Dynamics violence. to continue through his term in office, which Council members are united in their overall Council members may also be interested ends in 2022. The mandate of the mission, support for the peace process. While they have in hearing from the briefer about the poten- as set out in the 2016 agreement, focuses on generally been deferential towards the govern- tial impact that the outbreak of COVID-19 verifying aspects of the agreement related to ment, some differences in tone emerged in might have on the implementation of the the political, economic and social reincorpo- 2019. For example, several members have peace agreement and on any challenges it ration of the FARC-EP; personal and collec- been critical of the government on such issues might pose to the ability of the UN Verifi- tive security guarantees; and comprehensive as the continuing security vacuum in areas cation Mission to perform its duties. Some programmes of security and protection mea- from which FARC-EP withdrew under the members might raise the question of how sures for communities and organisations in agreement and an uneven approach to imple- the spread of COVID-19 in the region might conflict-affected areas. Previous mandate menting different aspects of the agreement. affect stability, noting also that Colombia has renewal resolutions have left the mandate The UK is the penholder on Colombia. closed its border with neighbouring Venezu- unchanged. However, in preparation for the ela to pre-empt the spread of the virus. next mandate expiry in September, Council

Mali

Expected Council Action to Kidal since fighting with rebel groups killed and 19 went missing. Ogossagou is In April, the Council is due to hold its quar- forced its retreat in May 2014. Reconstituted the village where 157 civilians were killed terly briefing on Mali, followed by consulta- units have also deployed to Gao, Timbuktu in a March 2019 attack. In an 18 March tions. The mandate of the UN Multidimen- and Menaka. From 4 to 7 March, Prime statement on a MINUSMA and OHCHR sional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Minister Boubou Cissé visited the northern investigation into the February attack, Spe- Mali (MINUSMA) expires on 30 June 2020. cities and towns of Kidal, Tessalit, Aguel- cial Representative and head of MINUSMA hok and Menaka. His visit to Kidal also had Mahamat Saleh Annadif expressed concern Key Recent Developments symbolic significance, as it had been former about the impunity enjoyed by the perpetra- There has been some improvement in imple- Prime Minister Moussa Mara’s visit there that tors. On 19 March, militants killed 29 Mali- menting the 2015 Mali Peace and Reconcili- precipitated the May 2014 battle; it was also an soldiers in Tarkint, Gao Region. Fighting ation Agreement, while at the same time the reportedly the first visit of a Malian prime reported between terrorist groups has further security situation remains dire in central Mali minister to Aguelhok since independence. complicated the situation. and parts of the north. The first round of legislative elections, ini- Insecurity in Mali and the broader Sahel On 19 January, a ministerial-level meet- tially scheduled for November 2018, was held was the focus of a 13 January summit in Pau, ing of the Agreement Monitoring Commit- on 29 March, despite security challenges and France, with Malian President Ibrahim Bou- tee (CSA) was held. This was its first meet- concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. On bacar Keïta; other presidents of the Group ing since the government cancelled a planned 25 March, just days before the election, gun- of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel, consisting CSA meeting in September 2019 after the men kidnapped main opposition leader Sou- of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania President of Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou, maila Cissé along with other members from his and Niger); and French President Emman- declared that signatory parties in the north team while they campaigned in central Mali; uel Macron. According to a joint statement, were colluding with terrorist groups. Cissé has yet to be freed. A second round of the France and G5 Sahel countries agreed to In a major step in the implementation legislative elections is scheduled for 19 April. a new political, strategic and operational of the peace agreement, the first mixed unit Meanwhile, attacks by terrorist groups framework called the Coalition for the Sahel of the reconstituted army—composed of and intercommunal violence has continued. that is open to other partners. It will combine national troops and integrated forces from the On 14 February, ethnic Dogon militiamen efforts to combat terrorist groups, strength- north—arrived in Kidal city on 13 February, attacked the Fulani village of Ogossagou in en state capacities, and encourage develop- which marked the Malian army’s first return the Mopti region. At least 35 people were ment assistance. This includes concentrating

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2480 (28 June 2019) renewed the mandate of MINUSMA until 30 June 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/223 (20 March 2020) was the quarterly report on Mali. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV. 8703 (15 January 2020) was a briefing on Mali.Security Council Press Statement SC/14083 (17 January 2020) expressed serious concern about delays implementing many of the 2015 peace agreement’s substantive provisions. Sanctions Committee Documents SC/14144 (12 March 2020) was a 2374 Sanctions Committee press release on the Panel of Experts’ mid-term report. S/2020/158 (28 February 2020) was the mid-term report of the Mali Panel of Experts. ADDITIONAL USEFUL RESOURCES Mali: Army, UN Fail to Stop Massacre. Human Rights Watch. 18 March 2020.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Mali

military efforts on the Mali-Niger-Burkina (MAA). According to media reports, GATIA reject- The security situation is critical. Related Faso border region under the joint command ed the accusations, and the CMA formed a com- to this is the MINUSMA adaptation plan. of France’s regional counter-terrorism Oper- mittee to analyse the report. The CMA continued Council members requested in their 17 Janu- its military expansionist strategy in the north, in ation Barkhane, and the G5 Sahel Joint Force violation of the ceasefire and at the expense of ary press statement that the Secretary-Gen- (FC-G5S), targeting the Islamic State of the the Platform, according to the report. eral’s next quarterly report include a detailed Greater Sahara (ISGS) as a priority. In early Earlier, on 4 February, the ISIL (Da’esh) and Al- update on the implementation of the plan and February, France announced that it would Qaida Sanctions Committee imposed an assets its effects on improving coordination between deploy 600 troops to reinforce the 4,500 sol- freeze, travel ban and arms embargo on Amadou MINUSMA’s civil, military and police com- Koufa, the leader of Katiba Macina, the main al- diers already serving in Operation Barkhane. Qaeda affiliated group in central Mali. On 10 Feb- ponents. The UN’s ability to generate the On 10 February, President Keïta said the ruary, Mahri Sidi Amar Ben Daha, alias Yoro Ould new capabilities required for the plan and government was open to dialogue with the Daha, who is sanctioned under the Mali sanctions the financial implications, which the General jihadist groups Katiba Macina and Ansar regime, was killed in northern Mali. Assembly’s Fifth Committee is expected to Dine. This policy shift has not been extended consider in May, are important issues. to ISGS. Human Rights-Related Developments The Council had been planning a visiting The Council last met on Mali on 14 Jan- On 21 February, the independent expert on the mission in April to the Sahel, including Mali, situation of human rights in Mali, Alioune Tine, uary. Under-Secretary-General for Peace to contribute to its consideration of the next released a statement expressing concern over Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix presented the increasing violence and impunity in the cen- mandate renewal on MINUSMA. The mis- the Secretary-General’s adaptation plan for tral region of the country, saying that the “Mali- sion has been postponed, however, because MINUSMA, developed in light of its new, an Armed Forces and MINUSMA have failed to of concerns over COVID-19. second strategic priority mandated in reso- provide adequate security for the civilians of the Sanctions remain a tool to pressure those region”. The statement also highlighted the dete- lution 2480 of June 2019 to support the obstructing the 2015 peace agreement. Cur- rioration of the humanitarian situation, reporting government in addressing the deteriorating that the number of internally displaced persons rent sanctioned individuals are all from the situation in central Mali while continuing increased from 99,000 to 207,751 from March to north, including the one designated parlia- to devote close attention to the north. Lac- December 2019. mentarian, and one issue is how to be more roix said, “It is not feasible for MINUSMA During its 43rd session, the Human Rights balanced in also targeting the government for Council (HRC) was scheduled to hold an inter- to implement its additional strategic priority hindering the agreement’s implementation. active dialogue on 17 March with Tine and to in the centre without additional resources”, consider his report (A/HRC/43/76). Given the which “has resulted in dangerous gaps in circumstances surrounding COVID-19, how- Council Dynamics areas in northern Mali”. Lacroix explained ever, the HRC suspended its 43rd session on Members have been frustrated by the peace that the plan maintains authorised troop and 13 March. The report, covering 1 April 2019 to agreement’s slow implementation, which is police levels but seeks to “make MINUSMA 20 November 2019, concludes that Mali and the why in resolution 2480 the Council specified Sahel face “enormous and multifaceted challeng- more agile, flexible and mobile, with tailored es in terms of security, governance and develop- priority areas in which it expects to see progress. units, enhanced capabilities and, most impor- ment” and that “Mali and the entire subregion are The US is the most vocal critic of the parties tantly, with additional air mobility”. facing danger such as they have never known in this regard, and suggested at the 14 January A 17 January Council press statement not- before”. The report emphasises the need for briefing that the Council consider deprioritis- ed some progress in the peace agreement’s the Malian state, the FC-G5S and MINUSMA to ing MINUSMA’s support in implementing the increase the protection of civilians in areas at risk. implementation but expressed serious con- agreement and instead focus the mission on cern about delays in many of its substantive protecting civilians if there has not been more provisions. It further welcomed the Secre- Key Issues and Options progress by the time of MINUSMA’s June tary-General’s plan to adapt MINUSMA “by Implementation of the 2015 peace agreement mandate renewal. As demonstrated by their increasing its protected mobility, agility and remains a key issue, particularly in the five pri- 17 January press statement, members support flexibility”. ority areas set out in resolution 2480: constitu- the MINUSMA adaptation plan, though it tional reform, decentralisation, security sector seems that the US might object to changes that Sanctions-Related Developments reform, development of the north, and partici- would increase the mission’s budget. On sanc- On 12 February, the 2374 Mali Sanctions Com- pation of women. The legislative elections are tions, the P3, among other Council members, mittee met on the mid-term report of the Panel of an important step to advance constitutional support their use against those hindering the Experts on Mali, and on 3 March, the committee met with regional states to discuss implementa- reform. The COVID-19 pandemic presents peace agreement while Russia is the most likely tion of the sanctions regime. Among its findings, new issues, including Mali’s limited medi- to question their use. Members share concerns the Panel of Experts’ mid-term report said that cal infrastructure, concerns over the safety of about the security situation. Niger, a Council signatory group the Coordination of Movements peacekeepers and MINUSMA troop rotations, member since 1 January, has been profoundly of Azawad (CMA) has colluded with terrorist and its potential impact on the peace agree- affected by the spillover of violence. groups both in northern and central Mali. The report also mentions the involvement in the drug ment’s implementation. In this context, the France is the penholder on Mali. Ambas- trade by the CMA, and the Platform, mainly the CSA meeting set for March was cancelled due sador José Singer Weisinger (Dominican Imghad Tuareg Self-Defense Group and Allies to the pandemic. Mali confirmed its first two Republic) chairs the 2374 Mali Sanctions (GATIA) and the Arab Movement of Azawad cases of COVID-19 on 23 March. Committee.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Western Sahara

Expected Council Action World Food Programme’s 2019 nutrition sur- worried about attempts to subvert principles In April, the Council expects to receive a vey, there was a deterioration in women and of self-determination. briefing on the UN Mission for the Refer- children’s nutritional status, with anaemia in From 19 to 24 December 2019, the endum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) as refugee camps prevalent among 50.1 percent Polisario Front held its 15th Congress in mandated in resolution 2494. Colin Stewart, of children aged 6-59 months and 52.2 per- Tifariti. About 2,000 attended, including the Special Representative for Western Saha- cent among women of reproductive age. As of Sahrawi delegates, Polisario Front adminis- ra and head of MINURSO, is likely to brief. 1 March, there were no reports of COVID-19 tration officials, and several foreign delega- Western Sahara briefings have usually been in the Tindouf refugee camps. tions, including representatives from the new- held in consultations. Relations have remained tense between ly elected government in Algeria. In a January MINURSO’s mandate expires on 31 Morocco and the Polisario Front, moreover. letter to the Security Council, the Polisario October. In July 2019, King Mohammed VI of Moroc- Front denounced the fact that the motorsport co stressed in a speech that Western Sahara is “Africa Eco Race” crossed through its region, Key Recent Developments part of Morocco and urged the international and also protested that the Secretary-General The political situation regarding Western community to work on Morocco’s autonomy was not criticising Moroccan actions sharply Sahara remains relatively unchanged. The plan, which was first submitted to the UN in enough. The Polisario Front also continues to Secretary-General has yet to appoint a new 2007. With the support of the Moroccan gov- advocate for the immediate appointment of a Personal Envoy since the previous envoy, ernment, Burundi, Central African Republic, new personal envoy. former President of Germany Horst Köhler, Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, The Gam- resigned his post on 22 May 2019 because of bia, Guinea, Liberia, and São Tomé and Prín- Key Issues and Options health concerns. The personal envoy is man- cipe have all recently opened consulates in MINURSO is one of the longest-running dated to move the political process forward, Moroccan-controlled Laayoune and Dakhla UN peacekeeping missions, having been towards settlement of the Western Sahara dis- in the disputed territory. established in 1991 with the key objective of pute, and in the year before resigning, Köhler On 30 October 2019, the Council adopt- facilitating a referendum for the self-determi- had successfully led several roundtable dis- ed resolution 2494 renewing the mandate of nation of the people of Western Sahara. With cussions. The personal envoy’s mandate rests MINURSO for one year. The US, as pen- no referendum held, its duties today mainly on being able to establish trust amongst the holder, opted not to make significant changes consist of monitoring the ceasefire across the discussants, namely Morocco, the Polisario to the text at that time, aside from a return Berm, a 1,700-mile-long earthen wall that Front, Algeria and Mauritania. (Western to the 12-month mandate cycle, for which divides the Moroccan-administered por- Sahara has been the subject of territorial dis- France and others had been advocating. A tion of Western Sahara from that held by the putes since Spain withdrew in 1976. Initially, 12-month mandate was the norm until 2018, Polisario Front. Members will want to hear of both Morocco and Mauritania presented when the US pushed for a six-month man- any challenges on the ground to MINURSO claims, but Mauritania renounced its claim date to increase pressure on the parties to or difficulties in implementing its mandate. in 1979. The independence movement is led work towards a peaceful solution. The return Given the continued absence of the by the Polisario Front, which represents the to the yearlong mandate seemed to signal Secretary-General’s personal envoy, Coun- nomadic inhabitants of the Western Sahara the US belief that the continued absence of a cil members could consider issuing a press region known as the Sahrawis.) In the ten personal envoy had substantially reduced the statement urging the Secretary-General to months since Köhler’s departure, no initia- possibility of any positive political progress. appoint a successor to Köhler as soon as tives towards reaching a political agreement Thirteen Council members voted in possible. In the past, there have been unsuc- have been evident. favour of resolution 2494, with Russia and cessful attempts at conveying this message Meanwhile, the situation on the ground South Africa abstaining (as they did during to the Secretary-General, including during remains tense. Special Representative Stew- the previous vote, in April 2019). In their the mandate renewal negotiations in Octo- art last briefed Council members in closed statements, Russia and South Africa stressed ber 2019: some members wanted a stronger consultations on 16 October 2019, high- their support for MINURSO’s work. Russia call for this, while others felt that a resolution lighting his concerns about the humanitar- indicated their belief, however, that others was not the right place. The fact that the post ian situation as well as an ongoing funding were trying to use the renewal to “predeter- has been vacant for nearly a year may have gap. Stewart described rising frustration mine the direction of the negotiation pro- increased the Council’s sense of pressure. among Sahrawi youth because of the lack cess being conducted under the auspices of of opportunities and of any final settlement the United Nations or to change established Council and Wider Dynamics of the issue. Civil society actors continue to approaches affirmed in previously adopted The Council has been quiet on the Western criticise violence by Moroccan police against resolutions”. South Africa did not believe the Sahara issue since the adoption of resolution activists in Western Sahara. According to the text was balanced between the parties and 2494. With many member states frustrated

UN DOCUMENTS ON WESTERN SAHARA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2494 (30 October 2019) renewed MINURSO’s mandate for 12 months, with abstentions by two Council members. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/787 (2 October 2019) covered challenges to MINURSO’s operations and steps taken to address them. Security Council Letter S/2020/45 (16 January 2020) was from the Polisario Front to the Secretary-General that included a complaint about alleged Moroccan violations of Military Agreement No. 1 during the Eco Race as well as some dissatisfaction with statements made by the spokesman for the Secretary-General during his daily press briefing on 13 January 2020. The letter was transmitted by Namibia with a request that it be circulated as a Security Council document. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8651 (30 October 2019) included the adoption of resolution 2494 renewing MINURSO’s mandate until 31 October 2020.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Western Sahara by the absence of a personal envoy and the is reflected in the opening of the nine consul- MINURSO and in their support for Polisa- concomitant lack of political progress, they ates, something that was unforeseeable before. rio. Tunisia, as a new Council member and may voice these concerns. South Africa remains the Polisario’s most part of the region, may have a useful point of In January 2017, Morocco rejoined the steadfast ally on the Council. It will likely view to share, though it will do so delicately AU after a 33-year absence. Morocco left continue to push for more negotiations to given its critical relationships with all stake- when the AU’s predecessor body admitted determine the status of Western Sahara as holders. Tunisia’s neighbour Algeria has also Western Sahara as a member in 1984. Since soon as possible, and for retaining a focus renewed its involvement on Western Sahara rejoining the organisation, Morocco has been on human rights. The opening of consulates after recently pulling back while it formed a stepping up its efforts to maintain its de facto by nine African countries in Laayoune, in government. Algeria is one of the countries governance over part of the Western Saha- the disputed territory, may signal a changing that has spoken out against the recent con- ra territory and attempt to bring some AU dynamic among African states which had pre- sulate openings. members around to its way of thinking. This viously been consistent in their positions on

Syria

Expected Council Action DiCarlo’s briefing on attacks in southern counter-attacks by the Turkish military on In April, the Security Council expects to hold Idlib by Syrian government forces and the Syrian government forces. In response, Rus- its monthly meetings on political issues, the Russian Federation air force as well as attacks sian President Vladimir Putin and Turk- humanitarian situation, and the use of chemi- launched by non-state armed groups. Accord- ish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met in cal weapons in Syria. ing to OHCHR, around 1,750 civilians had Moscow on 5 March, agreeing to a cessation been killed since April 2019, DiCarlo said. of all military actions effective 6 March. The Key Recent Developments On 2 March, an inter-agency UN mission agreement also included the establishment As the security and humanitarian situations crossed from Turkey into north-west Syria to of a security corridor along the strategic M4 in north-west Syria continued to worsen, the assess first-hand the deteriorating humani- highway, with joint Russian-Turkish patrols. Council met twice at the end of February to dis- tarian situation and determine the feasibility The Council held closed consultations cuss rapidly unfolding events. On 27 February, of “a sustained UN presence in Idlib”. Led on 6 March to discuss the agreement. The Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitar- by Kevin Kennedy, regional humanitarian Russian Federation proposed press elements ian Affairs Ursula Mueller briefed the Council coordinator for the Syria crisis, it included for the President of the Council to read out, on the ongoing situation in Syria’s north-west, representatives from the International Orga- which included the Council’s welcoming where 950,000 people had been displaced since nization for Migration, the UN Population the establishment of a ceasefire and encour- 1 December and fighting continued. She also Fund, UNHCR, UNICEF, the World Food aging all parties to comply. Some member updated the Council on the Secretary-Gener- Programme, OCHA, and the World Health states objected to the lack of language on al’s report that reviewed alternative modalities Organization. The mission noted that over the humanitarian situation in the text while for the border crossing of Ya‘rubiyah, which had 2,150 trucks carrying aid had crossed from others felt that the Council would be acting been one of four Council-authorised crossings Turkey into north-west Syria in January prematurely in welcoming the previous day’s for the delivery of humanitarian aid into Syr- and February—twice the number that had agreement. On 15 March, both Russian and ia. However, the Council was unable to reach delivered assistance in the same period the Turkish officials announced that joint patrols agreement on maintaining this crossing and year before. On 3 March, Under-Secretary- of the M4 security corridor had begun; media the Al-Ramtha crossing when it renewed the General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Low- sources, however, noted that some patrolling cross-border aid delivery mechanism on 10 Jan- cock also visited the border area near Hatay had been cut short because Syrian opposition uary through resolution 2504. Henrietta Fore, in Turkey, where he described the situation forces blocked the roadway. executive director of UNICEF, also briefed, in which traumatised people—up to 2.8 mil- On 13 March, the Board of Inquiry, estab- focusing on the estimated half-million children lion in north-western Syria—were living in lished in August 2019 by the Secretary-Gen- affected by the crisis. open-air conditions, despite cold tempera- eral to investigate attacks on sites in north- With fighting continuing to escalate, the tures. Ambassador Kelly Craft (US) joined west Syria on a “deconfliction” list that Council met again on 28 February in an Lowcock at the border during part of his visit. included health facilities, submitted its report emergency public session. Secretary-Gener- Tensions between Turkey on one side and to the Secretary-General. According to his al António Guterres made opening remarks Syria and the Russian Federation on the oth- spokesperson, the Secretary-General intends followed by Under-Secretary-General for er escalated further after an attack on Turk- to share a summary of the report publicly. Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary ish forces on 27 February and subsequent Lowcock had been expected to brief the

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2504 (10 January 2020) renewed the authorisation of cross-border humanitarian aid into Syria through two border crossings (Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa) for six months. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8734 (27 February 2020) was a meeting on the political and humanitarian situation in Syria. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/139 (21 February 2020) reviewed alternative modalities for the border crossing of Ya‘rubiyah.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Syria

Council on the humanitarian situation in Syr- Human Rights-Related Developments presented by the ceasefire. The Council could ia on 25 March. However, this meeting was During its 43rd session, the Human Rights Coun- also urge him to explore how the parties in removed from the Council’s Programme of cil (HRC) held an interactive dialogue on 9 and 10 the Constitutional Committee could reinvig- March with the Commission of Inquiry on Syria Work due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The and considered its report (A/HRC/43/57), which orate the stalled political process. briefing had been expected to cover the situ- presents findings based on investigations - con The Council could also make an appeal ation in north-western Syria, Lowcock’s visit ducted from 11 July 2019 to 10 January. Paulo for enhanced financial contributions to sup- to the region, updates on progress regarding Sérgio Pinheiro, chair of the Commission, told port OCHA’s humanitarian plan for Syria, resolution 2504, and the potential impact that the HRC that since December 2019, nearly one given increased needs in the north-west and million Syrians had been displaced, with some COVID-19 could have on vulnerable com- 80 percent of these being women and children. increased deliveries of assistance that the munities in Syria, particularly in the country’s More than three million people remain trapped in inter-agency mission noted in its visit to the north-west. northern Idlib with a “near absence of humanitar- region. Special Envoy Geir O. Pedersen briefed ian aid”, he said. He also referred to the terrorist With the submission of the Board of Inqui- the Council on 30 March on the politi- group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which had carried ry report on 13 March, the Council could ask out attacks on civilian-inhabited areas under cal situation, including any progress on the the control of the government, killing dozens of the Secretariat for a briefing on the board’s political process, which has remained in a women, men and children. Hundreds of Syrians findings in a closed format to allow for a frank stalemate for several months since the Con- had been killed in near-constant bombardments dialogue and exchange of views. stitutional Committee convened in Geneva during the period under review, he said. The Council could also discuss the IIT in November 2019. On 24 March, Pedersen Given the circumstances surrounding the report with the OPCW in a private-meeting COVID-19 outbreak, the HRC suspended its 43rd called for a “complete, immediate nationwide format in April. While Council members session on 13 March and adopted a decision ceasefire throughout Syria to enable an all- extending all mandates and mandated activities often meet on chemical weapons issues in out-effort to suppress COVID-19 in Syria”. that would otherwise expire at the end of the Syria in closed consultations, non-UN offi- Syrians remain “acutely vulnerable to COV- 43rd session, including that of the Commission cials and non-Council members are not per- ID-19” and need a “sustained period of calm of Inquiry on Syria, until a yet to be determined mitted to participate in these informal meet- date on which the 43rd session is resumed (A/ throughout the country respected by all par- ings. That is not the case with formal private HRC/43/L.14). At the adoption, the representative ties” so that the necessary measures are taken of Syria expressed its opposition to the extension meetings, the format used when the Coun- to address this crisis. of the Commission’s mandate in this manner, add- cil discussed the use of chemical weapons On 26 March, it was announced that ing that it is a “disputed” and not a consensual in Syria with Fernando Arias, the OPCW’s Pedersen’s 30 March briefing would be mandate. Director-General, on 5 November 2019. convened as an informal videoconference meeting and would be organised as a joint Key Issues and Options Council Dynamics political and humanitarian briefing, where A key issue is how the Council might support Member states hold markedly different Lowcock also briefed. This was the third the 5 March ceasefire agreement. Despite views on Council engagement on Syria. The informal videoconference meeting of Coun- some members’ view that welcoming the P3 (France, the UK and the US) and oth- cil members since measures announced by ceasefire would be premature, the Council ers tend to condemn attacks on civilians and the Secretary-General to address COVID-19 may wish to revisit the issue as the ceasefire civilian infrastructure by the Syrian govern- included a partial closure of UN headquar- appears to be holding. One option would be ment and its allies, while China and Russia ters that began on 16 March. for the Council to organise a briefing to be often emphasise the importance of eliminat- The Organization for the Prohibition of updated on the ceasefire. Several members ing the threat of terrorism in Syria. The fail- Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Investigation may also call for Special Envoy Pedersen to ure of the Council to agree on elements to the and Identification Team (IIT)—established support the ceasefire agreement. One option press at its 6 March closed consultations on to identify perpetrators of chemical weapons would be for the Council to urge the Secre- the ceasefire in the north-west illustrated the attacks in Syria following a June 2018 deci- tary-General to play an enhanced good offic- tense dynamics. sion of the Conference of States Parties to the es role by supplementing Pedersen’s efforts Belgium and Germany are the humanitar- Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)—is and engaging in dialogue with all the relevant ian co-penholders on Syria. scheduled to deliver its report by 27 March. parties in the area to build on the opportunity

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Yemen

sentenced to death—in absentia—by the Houthi- Expected Council Action the Hodeidah agreement. During the brief- controlled Specialized Criminal Court on 3 March In April, the Council is expected to hold ing, Griffiths also noted continued restric- on charges related to their participation in last its monthly briefing with Special Envoy for tions on the movement of UNMHA person- year’s April 2019 parliamentary meeting in Say- Yemen Martin Griffiths and a representative nel, saying that mission patrols had not been oun that had been called for by President Abdo from OCHA. The mandate of the UN Mis- able to enter Hodeidah city since October Raboo Mansour Hadi. sion to support the Hodeidah Agreement 2019. Acting Assistant Secretary-General for (UNMHA) expires on 15 July 2020. Humanitarian Affairs Ramesh Rajasingham Key Issues and Options also briefed, echoing Griffiths’ call for a ces- The military escalation has significantly set Key Recent Developments sation of hostilities. back progress made during the latter part of Heavy fighting has continued since mid-Jan- Echoing his appeal two days earlier for 2019 to resume a political process through uary, with the Houthi rebel group seizing new a global ceasefire in light of the COVID-19 the dialogue between the Houthis and Saudi territory in the north and appearing poised to pandemic, on 25 March, Secretary-Gener- Arabia and the Saudi-brokered Riyadh Agree- attack Marib governorate. The governorate al António Guterres called for an immedi- ment between the government and the sepa- and its provincial capital, the city of Marib, ate ceasing of hostilities in Yemen, and for ratist Southern Transitional Council. Critical have emerged during the war as an impor- the parties to focus on reaching a political issues include how the Security Council can tant Yemeni government stronghold, experi- settlement and working together to coun- support de-escalation efforts and the resump- encing an economic and population boom ter a potential COVID-19 outbreak. The tion of an inclusive political process that can from Yemenis fleeing violence, its oil and gas Houthis, government and Saudi Arabia-led lead to UN-mediated peace talks. Preserving reserves, and investments by Saudi Arabia. A coalition that supports the government all the December 2018 Stockholm Agreement, battle there would further undermine prog- expressed support for the Secretary-Gener- which includes the Hodeidah agreement, as ress made in late 2019 to resume a political al’s call. Despite these positive overtures, on well the stalled Riyadh Agreement, remains process, as well as placing a new heavy toll 28 March, the coalition announced that it important. on civilians, including the 800,000 internally had intercepted two ballistic missiles as well The humanitarian crisis continues to be displaced persons in Marib. as drones that the Houthis claimed to have severe. OCHA usually briefs on five key pri- On 1 March, the Houthis took the city fired at Riyadh and areas in southern Saudi orities: the protection of civilians, humani- of Al Hazm, the capital of the northern Al Arabia. The attacks were followed by a series tarian access, funding for the aid operation, Jawf governorate, resulting in a new “massive of coalition air raids on Sana’a. support for the economy, and the need for a displacement”, according to OCHA. Its fall political solution. A battle for Marib, where was seen as opening the way for the Houthis there is already fighting, would likely have to attack Marib. Concerned by this prospect, Human Rights-Related Developments new devastating humanitarian consequences. Griffiths visited Marib on 7 March. In pub- During its 43rd session, the Human Rights Coun- Ongoing challenges include the operating cil (HRC) received an oral update on 27 February lic remarks, Griffiths said, “Marib must be environment for humanitarian actors, par- from the High Commissioner for Human Rights, insulated from conflict, remain a haven for Michelle Bachelet, on the human rights situation ticularly in the Houthi-controlled north. Dur- Yemenis and continue its path to develop- in Yemen. Bachelet told the HRC that since March ing the 12 March briefing, Rajasingham said ment and prosperity”. He repeated his call 2015, OHCHR has verified and confirmed the kill- that restrictions in Yemen had prevented the for a freeze in military activities. ing of 7,734 civilians, including 2,103 children, and UN from conducting assessments to quantify injuries to 12,269 others due to indiscriminate Briefing the Council on 12 March, the 2020 humanitarian response plan (HRP). attacks, landmines, improvised explosive devic- Griffiths said that there was a real risk of a es, and the storage of weapons and explosives Therefore, he said, OCHA would continue protracted military escalation. He added, “It in residential areas, by all parties to the conflict. applying its 2019 Yemen HRP, “to maintain is imperative that the parties agree to partici- The actual numbers are likely to be far higher, she the programmes that have helped prevent pate in a public, accountable, nationwide de- said. Despite the ceasefire in Hodeidah, it was the famine, roll back cholera and otherwise save location with the highest number of civilian casu- escalation mechanism that quiets the tempo millions of lives” noting that considerable alties in 2019 (102 civilians killed and 310 injured), of war and steers Yemen off this precarious she added. Thousands more people have died funding will be required, though probably path”. Griffiths also reported increased clash- from illness and malnutrition resulting from con- somewhat less than in 2019 (a December es in and around Hodeidah. The day before, straints on humanitarian aid, the blockade, and 2019 global humanitarian overview pub- according to news reports, a Houthi sniper the collapse of the economy and key institutions lished by OCHA estimated that $3.2 billion shot a Yemeni government liaison officer serv- and services. Currently, out of a national popula- would be needed in 2020, compared to $4.16 tion of 30.5 million people, 20.1 million face hun- ing in one of the joint observation posts set up ger and 14.4 million need immediate assistance billion in 2019.) As of late March, a pledg- last year to monitor the Hodeidah ceasefire. for their sustenance or survival. Since March 2015, ing conference for Yemen was scheduled for 2 That led the government to suspend its par- 3.65 million people have been displaced, including April in Riyadh. There has been discussion to ticipation in the Redeployment Coordination 410,000 in 2019, she said. convene it remotely, though it is still likely to Committee that oversees implementation of In a 6 March statement, OHCHR expressed be delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. concern over the 35 Yemeni parliamentarians

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2511 (25 February 2020) renewed the Yemen sanctions regime for one year. Security Council Letters S/2020/2007 (16 March 2020) was from Yemen on the suspension of its participation in the Redeployment Coordination Committee. S/2020/200 (11 March 2020) was from Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Sudan and Yemen on the risks posed by the SAFER oil tanker. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8745 (12 March 2020) was a briefing on Yemen.Security Council Press Statement SC/14094 (30 January 2020) called for an immediate cessation of the hostilities that broke out in mid-January.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Yemen

Despite reporting no confirmed cases of Secretary-General’s call for a country-wide that OCHA has flagged over recent months COVID-19, the pandemic poses a new major cessation of hostilities given the risks posed and the need for the Houthis to allow a UN concern for Yemen, which has struggled to by COVID-19. Moreover, the P5 and the key assessment mission access to the moored deal with other health crises during the war states in the region that have influence on the SAFER oil tanker off the Ras Issa oil terminal, because of the strain on its health care and parties could seek to exert pressure directly which risks causing a major environmental sanitation systems, including the largest chol- on the sides to de-escalate and cooperate disaster in the Red Sea. Tunisia is the Arab era outbreak ever recorded. Neighbouring with the Special Envoy to resume a political member on the Council that traditionally Saudi Arabia and Oman had confirmed 1299 process. champions positions of the Saudi Arabia-led cases and 167 cases respectively, by 28 March. coalition supporting the Yemeni government. The government and the Houthis have intro- Council Dynamics The US has begun to reduce its humanitar- duced measures to reduce the spread of Council members have appeared to remain ian funding due to the Houthis’ interference COVID-19, including restrictions on flights quite united on Yemen, despite the conten- with aid operations, as it has warned that it to Sana’a and Aden, prompting concerns tious sanctions renewal in February that led would do during recent Council briefings on among humanitarian actors that these could to abstentions by China and Russia. At the Yemen. Russia at times expresses concerns affect aid operations. On 20 March, Griffiths 12 March session, members seemed unani- about the Council criticising or singling out urged the parties to release all “conflict- mous in their calls for the parties to de-esca- the Houthis more than other actors. related” prisoners as part of a long-delayed late and on the importance of restarting a The UK is the penholder on Yemen. prisoner exchange agreement, citing the risks political process. During the Council’s pub- Ambassador Inga Rhonda King (Saint Vin- posed by COVID-19. lic sessions, most members have also been cent and the Grenadines) chairs the Yemen At the time of this writing, members were raising concerns about the increasing Houthi 2140 Sanctions Committee. considering a press statement to echo the interference with humanitarian operations

Protection of Civilians: Conflict and Hunger

Expected Council Action failure of certain parties in these conflicts to infrastructure critical to the delivery of aid In April, the Council plans to hold a brief- ensure unfettered and sustained access for and to ensure the proper functioning of food ing on the protection of civilians from hunger deliveries of vital food assistance and other systems. Resolution 2417 further requested during armed conflict. Possible briefers are aid. It also called on member states to provide the Secretary-General to report swiftly to Executive Director of the World Food Pro- resources and funding to avert famine. the Council when there is a risk of conflict- gramme (WFP), David Beasley (who, how- During the Netherlands’ presidency in induced famine and widespread food inse- ever, announced on 19 March that he had March 2018, a Council briefing considered curity in the context of armed conflict and contracted COVID-19), Director General more broadly the rising trend in food insecu- to brief every 12 months on the resolution’s of the Food and Agriculture Organisation rity and conflict, considered to be the main implementation in the context of his annual (FAO), Qu Dongyu, and Secretary General driver of hunger in 18 countries, according briefing on the protection of civilians. of the Norwegian Refugee Council, Jan Ege- to a joint report of the EU, FAO and WFP Since the adoption of resolution 2417, land. The Council may adopt a presidential at the time. The session also sought to raise OCHA has sought to alert the Council to statement. awareness of international laws and norms to risks of famine in conflict situations, includ- protect civilian populations from hunger and ing by sending a white paper on unprecedent- Key Recent Developments food insecurity during war. ed levels of hunger and malnutrition in South Recent years have seen the Council increase Two months later, on 24 May 2018, the Sudan in July 2018. Council members then its consideration of the link between conflict Council adopted resolution 2417, which convened consultations in August 2018 on and hunger. In 2017, the threat of famine in “recalls the link between armed conflict and food security in South Sudan and in press north-east Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan violence and conflict-induced food insecu- elements after the meeting demanded that all and Yemen, which the Secretary-General had rity and the threat of famine”. The resolu- parties allow unhindered humanitarian access. warned member states could occur without tion strongly condemned the use of starva- Similarly, an OCHA white paper alerted the decisive action, prompted two briefings and tion of civilians as a method of warfare as Council to the renewed risk of famine facing an Arria-formula meeting on the crises. A well as the unlawful denial of humanitarian Yemen in October 2018 ahead of a Coun- Council presidential statement deplored the access and urged all parties to protect civilian cil briefing on that country’s humanitarian

UN DOCUMENTS ON CONFLICT AND HUNGER Security Council Resolution S/RES/2417 (24 May 2018) was on conflict-induced hunger. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2017/14 (9 August 2017) was on the threat of famine in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and north-east Nigeria. Security Council Letter S/2020/62 (22 January 2020) circulated the seventh joint FAO/WFP update for Council members on food security in countries with conflict situations. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8379 (23 October 2018) was a briefing on Yemen’s humanitarian crisis. S/PV.8213 (23 March 2018) was a briefing on conflict and hunger. S/PV.8069 (12 October 2017) was a briefing by the Secretary-General on impediments to an effective response to the risk of famine in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and northeast Nigeria.S/PV.7897 (10 March 2017) was a briefing on the humanitarian situation in South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and the Lake Chad Basin.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Protection of Civilians: Conflict and Hunger crisis. During the briefing, Under-Secretary- to members by the Dominican Republic. It or entities obstructing the delivery of human- General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Low- spotlights Afghanistan, the Central African itarian assistance, including access to or dis- cock warned of “a clear and present danger of Republic, Haiti, the Lake Chad Basin, central tribution of such assistance. an imminent and great big famine engulfing Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Soma- Yemen—much bigger than anything that any lia and South Sudan. (The report notes that Council and Wider Dynamics professionals in this field have seen during the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Maintaining Council attention to conflict- their working lives”, and outlined five pri- Sudan and Yemen are not covered because induced hunger has been an important issue orities that he called for the Council to sup- there was no updated acute food insecurity for the Dominican Republic. This is reflected port to prevent this possibility. In December data.) by its role in organising the informal briefings 2018, the first Yemeni peace talks in over two for members on food insecurity in conflict situ- years led to the Stockholm Agreement, which Key Issues and Options ations, hitherto held in January and September averted a battle for the port city of Hodeidah, Key issues include obstacles to humanitarian 2019 and January 2020. Some members, in through which Yemen imports much of its access and ensuring compliance with inter- particular Russia, continue to have concerns food and other critical supplies. national humanitarian law. Other factors that about the Council taking up as a thematic Starting in January 2019, the Dominican contribute to hunger in conflict are threats issue food insecurity and hunger, which can Republic and Germany have co-hosted infor- to or attacks on food sources—such as infra- have numerous causes and which the Coun- mal briefings for members to remain updat- structure for delivering food and insecurity cil already addresses when it arises in country ed on conflict-induced hunger trends by dis- from fighting that hinders access to farm- situations under discussion. Elected members cussing the bi-annual reports prepared by the land—and high food prices. Underlying fra- have taken the lead on previous Council prod- WFP and FAO, titled Monitoring food secu- gilities, such as climate change, underdevel- ucts on conflict and hunger, though with sup- rity in countries with conflict situations—a opment and poverty, make some countries port from the P3. Sweden was penholder on joint FAO/WFP update for the members in conflict more vulnerable to hunger crises. the August 2017 presidential statement, and of the United Nations Security Council. A presidential statement could recall mes- resolution 2417, adopted unanimously in The most recent edition, the seventh in the sages from resolution 2417, including that the May 2018, was put forward by Côte d’Ivoire, series, was issued in January and circulated Council can and has sanctioned individuals Kuwait, the Netherlands and Sweden.

Great Lakes Region

Expected Council Action efforts to stabilise the eastern DRC, which concern focusing mainly on violence and the Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region remains volatile. The issue was most recently ongoing risk of re-emergence of Ebola in the Huang Xia is expected to provide his bi- discussed at an informal interactive dialogue, DRC’s east. Despite differences on the best annual briefing to the Council in April on the held on 14 January, during which Special way to proceed with MONUSCO in the future, implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security Envoy Xia also briefed. The Council held especially its Force Intervention Brigade, the and Cooperation Framework (PSC Frame- two meetings in consultations in November Council adopted resolution 2502 unanimously. work) for the Democratic Republic of the and December 2019 to discuss an increase in In Burundi, the political situation remains Congo (DRC) and the region, and other violence in the area. unsettled. Presidential elections—the first recent developments in the region. While maintaining the dual strategic pri- since 2015, when Burundian President Pierre orities of protecting civilians and supporting Nkurunziza won a controversial third term— Key Recent Developments and Council the stabilisation and strengthening of state are scheduled for 20 May. Nkurunziza has Dynamics institutions, the one-year renewal of the UN said that he does not plan to run. On 26 Feb- The Council continues to follow several Organization Stabilization Mission in the ruary, Council members held an informal country issues in the Great Lakes region, DRC (MONUSCO) mandate on 19 Decem- interactive dialogue (IID) on the situation in including the DRC, Burundi and the Cen- ber 2019 in resolution 2502 also included a Burundi, during which Assistant Secretary- tral African Republic (CAR). request to the Secretary-General to work with General for Africa Bintou Keita briefed. This In the DRC, President Félix Tshisekedi the government to create an exit strategy for was originally envisaged as a formal public has been active in promoting cooperation the mission, due by 20 October. In general, briefing followed by consultations, but the between the DRC and its neighbours. This Council members have maintained a posi- president of the Council in February—Bel- regional outreach comes in the context of tive view of the DRC’s political situation, with gium—decided instead to hold an IID, which

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2507 (31 January 2020) extended the CAR sanctions regime until 31 July 2020 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the CAR Sanctions Committee until 31 August 2020. S/RES/2502 (19 December 2019) extended MONUSCO’s mandate until 20 December 2020. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/124 (14 February 2020) was on MINUSCA. S/2019/837 (24 October 2019) was on the situation in Burundi. S/2019/783 (1 October 2019) was on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Great Lakes Region. Security Council Press Statement SC/14145 (16 March 2020) was on attacks against MINUSCA. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8728 (20 February 2020) was a briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s report on MINUSCA. S/PV.8646 (25 October 2019) was a briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s MINUSCA report.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Great Lakes Region allows for non-Council members to par- 2019 in Bangui, according to the Secretary- December 2020 and early 2021, and there ticipate in an informal discussion. Though General’s 14 February report. However, vio- are concerns about seeing electoral timelines Burundi was invited, it did not participate lent incidents and human rights violations met. At a Council briefing on 25 October, the in the meeting. During the meeting, some continue, and full implementation of the Special Representative and Head of MINUS- Council members emphasised the need for peace agreement has been delayed because CA, Mankeur Ndiaye, warned that “a serious the upcoming elections to be held in an inclu- of a lack of good faith by armed groups, some delay in holding the next elections could cre- sive, peaceful and transparent manner. 14 of whom signed the agreement with the ate a vacuum at the highest echelon of the At a briefing of the Human Rights Council CAR government. One of those groups, the State and lead to another political transition on 9 March, its Commission of Inquiry on anti-Balaka, is reportedly responsible for the that… would be harmful to the consolidation Burundi (COIB) warned that the situation in 15 March death of a UN peacekeeper who of democracy, stability and peace in the Cen- the country had worsened. The COIB high- was part of the Multidimensional Integrated tral African Republic”. More recently, during lighted attacks against opposition politicians Stabilization Mission in the Central African his 20 February briefing, he asked the interna- and their families as well as “killings, disap- Republic (MINUSCA). He was killed when tional community to meet its technical, logis- pearances, arbitrary arrests and detentions, elements of the anti-Balaka launched an tical and financial support so that the elec- acts of torture and ill-treatment and rape attack on the central CAR town of Grimari. tions could be held “within the constitutional against actual or alleged political opposition In a separate incident on 15 March, anoth- time frame”. While all Council members sup- members”. COIB members also reiterated the er peacekeeper was injured when his patrol port the Political Peace agreement, there are Commission’s concern about the humanitar- on the Ndélé-Birao axis came under attack some differences regarding CAR sanctions. ian situation, including the 336,000 Burun- by elements of two armed groups. Finally, Unlike previous unanimous renewals of the dian refugees in neighbouring countries. a CAR staff member of MINUSCA was sanctions regime, China and Russia abstained Security Council members remain divided also killed in Ndélé on 7 March. The Secu- on the Council’s January adoption of resolu- on Burundi. China and Russia have said that rity Council issued a press statement on 16 tion 2507, arguing that the Council should the country no longer belongs on the Coun- March condemning the attacks. do more to lift sanctions on the government. cil’s agenda, arguing that the situation is not a CAR’s fragile situation was discussed in While the Special Envoy has recently threat to international peace and security; the a Council briefing and consultations on 20 focused on mobilising resources to attract UK, amongst others, maintains that the coun- February. According to OCHA, approximate- business and investment in the Great Lakes try should remain on the agenda, given the ly 2.6 million people require humanitarian region, his office’s investment and trade con- political situation and human rights violations. assistance, with 669,000 civilians internally ference, scheduled for 18-20 March in Kigali, Regarding the CAR, there has been an displaced and another 593,000 people seek- was cancelled as a precaution in light of the overall decrease in violence since the Political ing refuge outside CAR. Presidential, legis- COVID-19 pandemic. Peace Agreement was signed on 6 February lative and local elections are scheduled for

Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

Expected Council Action Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People”. outskirts of Jerusalem; In April, the Council is scheduled to hold its Notable elements include: • the linking of these different parts of a Pal- quarterly open debate on “the situation in the • the incorporation of existing Israeli set- estinian state through new roads, bridges Middle East, including the Palestinian ques- tlements in the West Bank, including the and tunnels; tion”. Adjustments to Council working meth- Jordan Valley, and East Jerusalem into the • the Palestinian capital to be located “in the ods caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 state of Israel; section of East Jerusalem…in all areas east may alter the format of the meeting, how- • Jerusalem as the undivided capital of and north of the existing security barrier”; ever. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Israel; • a minimum four-year freeze in Israeli set- Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov may brief. • Palestinian statehood to be contingent tlement construction, with existing settle- upon the fulfilment of several conditions ments allowed to remain; Key Recent Developments determined by Israel, such as the renun- • $50 billion in international investment, On 28 January, US President Donald Trump ciation of violence and the disbanding of supplied by international donors mostly held a press conference at the White House militant groups such as Hamas; from among Arab nations, to build a new to announce his plan to end the Israeli-Pal- • the territory of the future Palestinian state Palestinian state; estinian conflict. The plan is officially titled to include the Gaza strip, parts of the West • a US embassy in the new Palestinian state; “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Bank, and some neighbourhoods on the and

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST (ISRAEL/PALESTINE) Security Council Resolution S/RES/2334 (23 December 2016) was a resolution “[C]ondemning all measures aimedat altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Palestinian Territory”. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8730 (24 February 2020) was a regularly scheduled briefing on the Middle East.S/PV.8717 (11 February 2020) was a briefing focused on the US peace plan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

• the preservation of the status quo of the Abbas, said that the plan offered a starting for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. point for negotiations. Mladenov briefed. Council members issued The Palestinian Authority, the Organiza- The Council held its monthly meeting on press elements in which they welcomed ongo- tion of Islamic Cooperation, the League of “the situation in the Middle East, including ing Israeli-Palestinian coordination to address Arab States, and the AU Commission Chair- the Palestinian question” on 24 February. COVID-19. The meeting had originally been man, among others, rejected the plan. Mladenov briefed, describing the difficult scheduled for 26 March as a briefing followed Indonesia and Tunisia circulated a draft humanitarian situation in Gaza and add- by consultations, but it was postponed and resolution on 4 February that would have ing that the UN Relief and Works Agency the format was changed due to the impact of reiterated the Council’s support for inter- for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East COVID-19 on the Council’s working methods. national parameters to resolve the dispute (UNRWA) continued to confront significant between Israel and the Palestinians. The ini- funding obstacles. His briefing was followed Human Rights-Related Developments tial draft, which would most likely have been by consultations. During its 43rd session, the Human Rights Coun- cil (HRC) considered on 26 February the report of vetoed by the US, strongly regretted “that the For nearly a year, Israeli Prime Minis- the High Commissioner for Human Rights titled plan presented on 28 January 2020 by the ter Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party had “Ensuring accountability and justice for all viola- United States and Israel breaches interna- been engaged in a tight bid for power with tions of international law in the Occupied Pal- tional law and the internationally-endorsed the Blue and White Alliance, led by Benny estinian Territory, including East Jerusalem” (A/ terms of reference for the achievement of a Gantz, a former Chief of Staff of the Israel HRC/43/21). The report, covering 1 November 2018 to 30 October 2019, concluded that the just, comprehensive and lasting solution to Defense Forces and a former Netanyahu ally. period under review was characterised by “a per- the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”. In addition, it On 2 March, the third Israeli elections since sistent failure to ensure accountability for alle- reiterated the various UN resolutions and ini- April 2019 ended inconclusively. However, gations of excessive use of force by the Israeli tiatives that call for a two-state solution based while citing the need for unity in light of the security forces in the context of the large-scale on pre-1967 borders. The draft was revised, possible national crisis facing Israel with the protests in Gaza and law enforcement opera- tions in the West Bank, including East Jerusa- following input from some members, and outbreak of COVID-19, Ganz agreed on 26 lem”. The HRC also considered the report of the put under silence until 10 February. The US March to join Netanyahu in forming a unity High Commissioner on “Israeli settlements in the broke silence with a number of amendments, government that leaves Netanyahu as prime Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East and the UK proposed further consultations minister. At time of writing, the deal under Jerusalem” (A/HRC/43/67). on the draft. Subsequently, the penholders discussion envisions Netanyahu retaining his decided to postpone the vote to allow more post for 18 months, followed by an 18-month Key Issues and Options time for consultations. At the time of writing, term for Ganz as prime minister. The recent Israeli approval of increased it remained unclear if Council negotiations In late February, in the lead up to the settlement construction remains an impor- on the text would resume. 2 March elections, the Israeli government tant issue and will likely be addressed in this The Security Council held a briefing on approved the construction of thousands of month’s meeting. Other long-standing issues 11 February at the request of Tunisia and homes for Israeli settlers on the West Bank. that may be raised in the meeting include the Indonesia that focused on the US peace plan. Netanyahu had said that Israel would annex humanitarian situation in Gaza, the prospects Secretary-General António Guterres made all Israeli settlements located in Palestinian for intra-Palestinian reconciliation, the demo- introductory remarks, and Mladenov pro- territories if he won the election. lition of Palestinian civilian structures in the vided the briefing. Guterres reiterated the On 18 March, Philippe Lazzarini was West Bank, and the firing of rockets into Isra- commitment of the UN to the two-state solu- appointed the Commissioner-General of el from Gaza. One new issue that may be dis- tion, with “Israel and Palestine...living side UNRWA. He most recently served as Resi- cussed is how Israeli and Palestinian authori- by side in peace and security within recog- dent and Humanitarian Coordinator for Leb- ties are coordinating to address the spread nized borders, on the basis of the pre-1967 anon in the Office of the UN Special Coordi- of COVID-19 and preparations for a poten- lines”. Mladenov also reaffirmed this posi- nator for Lebanon. tial outbreak of the virus in the Gaza strip. tion, adding that absent “a credible path back In a video message on UNRWA’s website On 18 March, a telephone conversation took to negotiations, we all face a heightened risk on 20 March, Matthias Schmale, the Director place between Israeli President Reuven Riv- of violence…that will drag both peoples and of UNRWA Operations in Gaza, appealed to lin and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mah- the region into a spiral of escalation with no donors for materials such as hand sanitising moud Abbas on coordination regarding the end in sight”. During the meeting, President gel, medicines, and protective equipment for response to the spread of COVID-19. Since Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Author- health workers to help the area confront a then, Israeli authorities have taken steps to ity said of the US peace plan, “This deal dic- potential COVID-19 outbreak. Almost 2 mil- transfer testing kits and medical equipment tates its own terms and the entrenchment of lion people live in Gaza, which is densely pop- into the Gaza strip. occupation, annexation by military force and ulated and has a fragile health care system. The Dominican Republic, as president of the strengthening of the obsolete apartheid On 30 March, Council members con- the Council for April, could consider invit- regime that has now returned to Palestine”. vened an informal videoconference meeting ing a civil society representative to brief dur- Questioning Abbas’ interest in peace, Israeli on the situation the Middle East, including ing the open debate—as was done twice in Ambassador Danny Danon, who spoke after the Palestinian question. Special Coordinator 2019, in April and November. Possibilities

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Middle East (Israel/Palestine) could include a human rights activist to dis- to office in 2017, the US has moved its meeting, a number of members—France, cuss the likely human rights implications of embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Israeli sov- Germany, Indonesia, South Africa and Viet- the approval of additional Israeli settlement ereignty over the disputed Golan Heights, nam—referenced resolution 2334 (2016), construction or a health expert to brief on and declared that Israeli settlements are “not, which declares that Israeli “settlements in needs and strategies to prevent the spread of per se, inconsistent with international law”, the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967” the coronavirus. according to a statement by US Secretary of have “no legal validity” and constitute “a fla- During April’s meeting, members could State Mike Pompeo in an 18 November 2019 grant violation under international law”. By also choose to discuss ways to revitalise the press conference. calling for the incorporation of Israeli settle- peace talks between Israel and the Palestin- While the US has traditionally been ments in the West Bank, including Jerusalem, ians, given the rejection of the US peace pro- staunchly pro-Israel, these decisions repre- into the state of Israel, the US peace plan posal by the Palestinians. sent a shift in policy that is even closer to Isra- directly contradicts resolution 2334. Sever- el. Other members support a position in line al members remain concerned that contin- Council Dynamics with that of the UN, calling for a two-state ued settlement construction undermines the Deep divisions persist on this issue in the solution in line with pre-1967 borders; this potential for a two-state solution. Council between the US and other mem- view was widely reiterated during the Coun- bers. Since President Donald Trump came cil meeting on 11 February. During the same

Kosovo

Expected Council Action after he received support from 66 lawmakers participation in the dialogue is contingent on In April, the Council is expected to hold this in the 120-seat parliament. The major oppo- the removal of the tariffs. year’s first regular briefing on the situation in sition parties PDK, Alliance for the Future The tariffs have become a contentious Kosovo. The Special Representative and head of Kosovo and Social Democratic Initiative issue between the coalition partners in the of the UN Interim Administration Mission did not participate in the vote. Ten members current government of Kosovo. Kurti has in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief of parliament from the Serbian List (a politi- proposed a gradual easing of tariffs while Isa on recent developments and the latest report cal party representing the Serb minority in Mustafa, the leader of the LDK, called for by the Secretary-General. In line with estab- Kosovo) cast votes but abstained. their immediate and complete removal. Kurti lished practice, Serbia is likely to participate On 2 March, US National Security Advis- and Mustafa also clashed on the appropri- at a high level while Kosovo will probably be er Robert O’Brien and US Special Envoy for ate way for Kosovo to address the ongoing represented by its ambassador to the US. Serbia and Kosovo Negotiations Richard COVID-19 pandemic. On 18 March, Kurti Grenell hosted a meeting between Kosovar dismissed Interior Minister Agim Veliu for Key Recent Developments President Hashim Thaçi and Serbian Presi- openly supporting Thaçi’s suggestion that a Following the resignation of Prime Minis- dent Aleksandar Vučić at the White House. state of emergency should be declared in light ter Ramush Haradinaj in July 2019, Kosovo No specific agenda for the meeting was made of the COVID-19 spread in Kosovo. Kurti held general elections on 6 October. “Self- public, but some media outlets have report- has questioned the need for a state of emer- Determination”, a long-standing opposition ed that the leaders were presented with ver- gency, citing a relatively low number of con- party, came in first after winning 26 percent sions of a draft final agreement on Kosovo. firmed cases (20 at the time) and no deaths. of the vote. The two major political parties, According to media reports, the final agree- Later the same day, Mustafa said he would the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) ment would presumably include the potential seek a parliamentary vote of no confidence in and the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), for territorial adjustments, a possible mutual Kurti’s government, which took place on 25 won 24 and 21 percent, respectively. The recognition, and UN membership for Kosovo. March. The motion of no confidence received turnout, which stood at over 44 percent, was There has been no progress in the EU- support from 82 members of the parliament the highest ever recorded for a general elec- facilitated talks between Belgrade and Pristi- which brought down the government. The tion in Kosovo. na. The dialogue has been at an impasse since Constitution mandates that the new elections Almost four months after the elections, November 2018 when Kosovo imposed 100 be held within 45 days after the dissolution of Self-Determination and the LDK reached an percent tariffs on Serbian imports. The EU the government. Given the COVID-19 pan- agreement on forming the new government. and the US have continued to call for the demic it remains uncertain when Kosovo will Albin Kurti, the leader of Self-Determination, tariffs to be revoked and for both parties to be able to hold new next elections. On 20 became the prime minister on 3 February resume dialogue. Serbia has indicated that its March, the government of Kosovo approved

UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/797 (4 October 2019) was on Kosovo. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8655 (31 October 2019) was a briefing on Kosovo.Other S/2019/120 (7 February 2019) was a note by the Council president that said the Council would hold briefings on Kosovo in June and October 2019 and that as of 2020, briefings would be held twice a year (in April and October).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Kosovo

the decision to abolish the tariffs on import Some members of the Council, the P3 characterise the Council’s consideration of of raw materials from Serbia. in particular, have questioned the UNMIK Kosovo. France, the UK, and the US recog- reporting cycle and called for downsizing the nise Kosovo’s independence and tend to be Key Issues and Options mission in light of the relative overall stabil- supportive of its government; China and Rus- The Council’s primary concern is to main- ity on the ground. In February 2019, the P3 sia do not recognise Kosovo’s independence tain stability in Kosovo. The Council will and EU members of the Council prevailed and strongly support Serbia’s position. also monitor developments in the dialogue in their months-long effort to reduce the fre- The US has been the most vocal propo- between Belgrade and Pristina and efforts to quency of meetings on Kosovo. According to nent of a drawdown and eventual withdraw- reach a final agreement on Kosovo. Should the agreement, from this year on the Council al of UNMIK, citing the level of stability in there be a significant breakthrough on the will hold two briefings on Kosovo annually, Kosovo. The US has also asserted that the diplomatic front, the Council could consider unless the Council decides otherwise. The mission is overstaffed and over-resourced the possibility of adopting a formal outcome Council could request the Secretary-General for its limited responsibilities and that these that would welcome this. to conduct a strategic review of UNMIK to resources could be put to better use in more The EU has been the main facilitator consider the effectiveness of the mission. pressing situations on the Council’s agenda. of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, which The issue of modifying UNMIK’s man- resulted in the 2013 Brussels agreement Council Dynamics date and possible drawdown is likely to on the normalisation of relations between Kosovo remains a low-intensity issue for the become more prominent in the upcoming the two. While there was progress in some Council and is closely followed mainly by period given the growing number of Coun- areas, an issue for the Council remains the members with a specific interest in the region. cil members supporting this position. Alone lack of implementation of the main aspects This is due in part to the pre-eminence in among missions regularly discussed by the of the agreement (most notably the establish- Kosovo of regional organisations, including Council, UNMIK’s mandate is open-ended. ment of the Association/Community of Serb the EU, NATO and the Organization for Any attempt to change it would require a Municipalities in northern Kosovo) and what Security and Co-operation in Europe. new resolution, which Russia would strongly role, if any, UNMIK might play in facilitating Nevertheless, deep divisions among oppose and most likely block. its implementation. permanent members have continued to

Youth, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action during the country’s April 2015 presidency mobilising youth around the “Silencing the As Security Council President in April, the when it organised an open debate on the Guns by 2020” initiative—a flagship project Dominican Republic is planning to convene “role of youth in countering violent extrem- of the AU’s Agenda 2063, which aims at end- an open debate on the issue of youth, peace ism and promoting peace”. On 9 December ing all conflict in Africa by 2020. and security under the agenda item “Main- 2015, the Council adopted resolution 2250, On 2 March 2020, the Secretary-General tenance of International Peace and Securi- which mandated a progress study on youth, issued his report addressing the issue of youth, ty”. Secretary-General António Guterres may peace and security. The study in turn served peace and security. The report was mandat- brief the Council. Other briefers may include as the basis for resolution 2419, the second ed by resolution 2419, which recognised the civil society representatives from youth-led resolution on the issue, adopted unanimous- role youth can play in conflict prevention and organisations. At the time of writing, it was ly on 6 June 2018. This adoption was also requested the Secretary-General to submit a unclear whether the debate would be held as preceded by an open debate, convened dur- report on the implementation of resolutions planned because of the COVID-19 outbreak. ing the Peruvian Council presidency in April 2250 and 2419 no later than May 2020. The A resolution is a possible outcome of the 2018. During Peru’s subsequent July 2019 report covered the period between Decem- event. It is not expected, however, to be adopt- presidency, the Council heard a briefing on ber 2015 and December 2019 and addressed ed during the debate but at a later date to the implementation of resolutions 2250 and progress on the five pillars outlined by reso- allow for the discussion to inform the drafting. 2419 from Jayathma Wickramanayake, the lution 2250: participation of young people in Secretary-General’s Envoy on Youth, and peace processes, humanitarian contexts, and Background and Key Recent representatives from youth-led organisations in national governance and political processes Developments in Afghanistan and Kenya. On 12 Decem- such as voting and running for office; protec- The Council first addressed the issue of youth, ber 2019, the Council adopted a presidential tion of young people, in particular vulnerable peace and security at the initiative of Jordan statement drafted by South Africa focused on groups such as refugees, and often-targeted

UN DOCUMENTS ON YOUTH, PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2419 (6 June 2018) reaffirmed the important role that youth and youth-led civil society can play in peacebuilding and sustaining peace; it was adopted unanimously. S/RES/2250 (9 December 2015) recognised the contribution of youth in the prevention and resolution ofconflicts. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2019/15 (12 December 2019) focused on mobilising youth around the AU’s “Silencing the Guns by 2020” initiative. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/167 (2 March 2020) was the first Secretary-General’s report on the issue of youth, peace and security.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Youth, Peace and Security groups such as young peacebuilders and noting the heightened dangers posed to wom- peace and security efforts, including within human rights defenders; prevention of vio- en activists. He therefore stressed the respon- mission mandates. Currently, only approxi- lence by addressing underlying drivers of con- sibility of member states to ensure that these mately 24 percent of peacekeeping mission flict through the provision of education and the groups are protected and that perpetrators of mandate renewal resolutions include provi- economic inclusion of young people; fostering violence against them are brought to justice. sions on youth. Members might therefore partnerships between youth-led organisations He said that to ensure coordinated action at a want to consider if and how they would want and member states, UN entities, and civil soci- national level, governments need to incorpo- to modify future mandate renewal resolutions ety; and inclusion of the needs of young people rate youth, peace and security elements into to include such provisions. Council members in planning for disengagement and reintegra- broader policy frameworks, noting in particu- may also consider ways to ensure the protec- tion in conflict and post-conflict environments. lar the role that national parliaments can play tion of young peace builders and human rights The findings of the Secretary-General’s by such means as adoption of relevant legisla- defenders and increase accountability for per- report outlined progress in implementing the tion and the commissioning of national road petrators of violence against these groups. agenda in terms of the growing recognition maps for youth, peace and security. The Council may adopt a resolution on on the part of governments, UN entities and The report also noted the increasing the issue, subsequent to and informed by the civil society of the important role youth play engagement of the Security Council on the open debate. Such a resolution may include in peace and security. The report stressed, youth, peace and security agenda since the a request to the Secretary-General regard- however, that many challenges remain to adoption of resolution 2250. The Council ing future reporting on the youth, peace and achieving progress on the five pillars, such had interactions with young people in nearly security agenda. The Dominican Republic as structural barriers limiting the ability of half of its visiting missions undertaken during could also choose to produce a chair’s sum- youth to participate in decision-making and the period covered by the report and increas- mary that would reflect the themes of the violations of their human rights. The Secre- ingly sought to hear briefings from youth open debate. tary-General referred to the report as a call representatives in country-specific debates, to action while saying that “to create a peace- such as on Syria and Afghanistan. Further- Council Dynamics ful, sustainable and prosperous world for all, more, reports of the Secretary General to Council members have differing views on young people need to be involved and condi- the Council about issues on its agenda have youth, peace and security as an area of Coun- tions that enable them to unleash their full increasingly referenced youth-specific issues. cil focus. During the negotiations on resolu- potential must be created”. tion 2419, it seemed that mainly China and In his overview of the implementation of Key Issues and Options Russia argued that the matter should be dealt the youth, peace and security agenda on the The debate on youth, peace and security can with by other parts of the UN system while national level, the Secretary-General refer- serve as an opportunity for Council members maintaining that it is not directly relevant to enced positive examples of youth participation and the wider UN membership to take stock the Council’s agenda. Some members might in peace processes in such countries as Colom- of progress made in the implementation of therefore not see a need for further reporting bia and the Philippines. He further emphasised resolutions 2250 and 2419 and share best by the Secretary-General to the Council on the contribution youths have in such political practices and lessons learned at the national this matter. It appears, however, that other processes by voicing their stand in less formal and regional level. It can also serve as a plat- members support having Council engage- channels, such as organisation of peaceful form to discuss the Secretary-General’s report ment on this issue and would have preferred demonstrations and online media campaigns. on youth, peace and security and its recom- even stronger language in resolution 2419 The Secretary-General expressed grave mendations and to devise priorities for action. about the positive role youth can play on concern, however, about the threats made Council members may want to discuss the peace and security matters. against young peacebuilders and human Secretary-General’s recommendation that rights defenders working in conflict areas, young people be encouraged to participate in

Sudan/South Sudan

Expected Council Action (UNISFA), due by 15 April, as requested in Key Recent Developments In April, the Council is expected to receive resolution 2497. On 14 November 2019, the Council adopt- a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report The mandate of UNISFA expires on 15 ed resolution 2497, renewing the mandate of on the implementation of the mandate of May. UNISFA until 15 May. The resolution main- the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei tained the authorised troop ceiling at 3,550

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2497 (14 November 2019) extended UNISFA’s mandate and its support to the JBVMM until 15 May 2020. S/RES/2492 (15 October 2019) extended UNISFA’s support for the JBVMM until 15 November 2019. Secretary General’s Report S/2019/817 (15 October 2019) was on the situation in Abyei. Security Council Letter S/2020/112 (7 February 2020) was a note from the Secretary-General on progress made in implementing the mission’s mandate, requested in resolution 2497. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8644 (24 October 2019) was a briefing on Sudan/South Sudan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Sudan/South Sudan and the police ceiling at 640. It also extend- benchmarks. The note expressed concern due by 15 April, as requested in resolution ed the mission’s support for the Joint Bor- that the mission “could be overstretched if 2497. der Verification and Monitoring Mechanism no progress is made on the deployment of The difficulty of obtaining visas for mem- (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct the proposed three formed police units to bers of UNISFA’s police component has monitoring and verification activities along address the increase in criminal activities”. It been a longstanding issue attributed to the the Sudan-South Sudan border, until 15 said that one formed police unit is expected non-issuance of visas by Sudan. Another May. The resolution expressed concern that to be deployed by the end of March and the issue is the failure to appoint a civilian deputy the delayed full deployment of UN police second as soon as possible. Discussions with head of mission, as requested by the Coun- prevents UNISFA from fulfilling its man- Sudan and South Sudan were still ongoing cil in May 2019, in light of ongoing discus- date and may create a security vacuum in in relation to the appointment of a civilian sions with Sudan and South Sudan. In this Abyei, the disputed territory along the Sudan/ deputy head of mission, according to the note. context, members will most likely be eager South Sudan border. It also expressed con- The JBVMM “has made some progress on to hear more about the steps taken to resolve cern about efforts by both Sudan and South the benchmarks” set out in resolution 2497, these issues. Sudan to impede UNISFA from executing as outlined in the note. Other issues Council members will be fol- its mandate fully, including by withholding The Council was last briefed on the issue lowing closely are the significant recent politi- visas for police and blocking the appointment on 24 October 2019 by Under-Secretary- cal developments in Sudan and South Sudan, of a civilian deputy head of mission. In rela- General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre including the establishment on 22 February tion to the latter, the resolution reiterated the Lacroix and the Special Envoy for the Horn of the Transitional Government of National request to the Secretary-General to appoint a of Africa, Parfait Onanga-Anyanga. Lacroix Unity in South Sudan, and the impact these civilian deputy head of mission for UNISFA, referred to the “unprecedented opportunity” developments may have on the situation in which was first requested in resolution 2469, to resolve the border-related issues between Abyei. An option would be to encourage adopted on 14 May 2019. (See our What’s In Sudan and South Sudan, adding that follow- Sudan and South Sudan to intensify their Blue story of 13 November 2019.) ing recent positive developments in bilateral engagement to advance towards a political The overall security situation in Abyei relations, the two countries need to resume resolution of their common border issues. remains fragile. Two major incidents took direct talks immediately to resolve the final place on 19 and 21 January. On 19 January, status of Abyei. Onanga-Anyanga also Council Dynamics three people from the Misseriya community referred to the improved relations between As in previous years, the Council’s focus on were killed in an attack in the Kolom area of the two countries, adding that the list of the situation in Abyei remains limited, large- Abyei. On 21 January, an armed attack tar- pending issues remains extensive, with most ly overshadowed by its ongoing engagement geting the local Ngok Dinka community in of the commitments agreed to in 2012 not on South Sudan and Sudan. However, the the Kolom area was reportedly perpetrated yet implemented. upcoming 15 May expiration of UNISFA’s by Misseriya armed elements, resulting in 35 mandate and its support for the JBVMM confirmed deaths. Human Rights-Related Developments present opportunities for Council members The Security Council adopted a press On 20 March, the High Commissioner for Human to direct attention to the issue. Rights, Michelle Bachelet, released a statement statement on 29 January, condemning these Negotiations around the mission’s troop expressing serious concern over the escalation incidents of violence between the Ngok Din- in intercommunal violence in South Sudan. Since and police levels have generally been conten- ka and Misseriya communities in the Kolom mid-February, hundreds of people have been tious in the past, with the US typically seeking area. The press statement welcomed reports killed, women and children subjected to sexual further troop reductions. It has asserted that that the governments of Sudan and South violence and homes destroyed, forcing thousands UNISFA is persisting longer than intended to take refuge in makeshift camps, the statement Sudan had committed to de-escalate ten- for an interim force, and that Sudan and said. The high number of weapons used by rival sions and jointly investigate the violence. It clans, tensions linked to the movement of cattle South Sudan are taking advantage of the rela- also “expressed disappointment that the gov- and access to natural resources were identified tive stability that UNISFA provides to delay ernments of Sudan and South Sudan have as contributing to the increase in violence along attempts to resolve the status of Abyei. The obstructed full implementation of UNISFA’s with the failure of local and national authorities US has also pressed for a viable exit strat- to respond. mandate”, particularly the deployment of egy for the mission. Unlike previous years, police and the civilian deputy head of mis- however, the US did not seek a troop reduc- sion, requested in resolution 2497, which had Key Issues and Options tion during negotiations on resolution 2497 not yet been fulfilled. A key issue for the Council to consider lead- in November 2019, making negotiations far As requested in resolution 2497, Council ing up to UNISFA’s mandate renewal in May less contentious than during previous man- members received a note on 7 February from is the overall appropriateness of the mission’s date renewals. the Secretary-General that reported on prog- current mandate in relation to the situation The US is the penholder on Sudan/South ress made in implementing the mission’s man- on the ground and what modifications, if any, Sudan. date, including the increase in police and the to make to the mandate and force structure. appointment of a civilian deputy head of mis- This assessment is likely to be informed by sion, and progress in achieving the JBVMM the Secretary-General’s report on UNISFA

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2020 Security Council Report Staff

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