Space Politics and Policy Space Regulations Library

SPACE POLITICS AND POLICY SPACE REGULATIONS LIBRARY

VOLUME 2

EDITORIAL BOARD Managing Editor PROF. R. JAKHU, Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill University, Montreal, Canada

MEMBERS M. DAVIS, Ward & Partners, Adelaide, Australia S. LE GOUEFF, Le Goueff Law Office, Luxembourg P. NESGOS, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy, New York, U.S.A. S. MOSTESHAR, Chambers of Sa’id Mosteshar, London, U.K. & Mosteshar Mackenzie, California, U.S.A. L. I. TENNEN, Law Offices of Sterns and Tennen, Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A. SPACE POLITICS AND POLICY

An Evolutionary Perspective

Edited by

ELIGAR SADEH University of North Dakota, Department of Space Studies, Grand Forks, U.S.A.

KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS NEW YORK, BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW eBook ISBN: 0-306-48413-7 Print ISBN: 1-4020-0879-1

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Visit Kluwer Online at: http://kluweronline.com and Kluwer's eBookstore at: http://ebooks.kluweronline.com CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES viii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS x

PROLOGUE xi Space Exploration: Myth or Must Willy Z. Sadeh

INTRODUCTION xiii Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary Perspective Eligar Sadeh

PART I. SPACE POLICY AGENDA-SETTING: HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Chapter 1: 3 Historical Dimensions of the Space Age Roger D. Launius

Chapter 2: 27 Rationales of the Space Program Roger Handberg

Chapter 3: 43 Advocacy Coalitions and Space Policy Christopher J. Bosso and W. D. Kay

PART II. SPACE POLICY FORMULATION AND IMPLEMENTATION: ACTORS AND INSTITUTIONS

Chapter 4: 61 Presidents and Space Policy Linda T. Krug v vi Space Politics and Policy

Chapter 5: 79 Congress and Space Policy Joan Johnson-Freese

Chapter 6: 105 Bureaucracy and the Space Program Howard E. McCurdy

Chapter 7: 129 Public Administration of the Space Program Eligar Sadeh

PART III. SPACE POLICY OUTCOMES

Chapter 8: 151 Space and the Environment Eligar Sadeh and James P. Lester

Chapter 9: 163 Space Law Nathan C. Goldman

Chapter 10: 181 Economics of Space Molly K. Macauley

Chapter 11: 201 Space Commerce James A. Vedda

Chapter 12: 229 Ethics and Off-Earth Commerce David M. Livingston

Chapter 13: 241 Space Business Stephen B. Johnson

Chapter 14: 281 International Space Cooperation Eligar Sadeh Contents vii

Chapter 15: 317 Comparative Space Policy: The Space Policy Crisis in the American, European, and French Space Programs Xavier Pasco and Laurence Jourdain

Chapter 16: 335 Space and the Military Peter L. Hays

Chapter 17: 371 Intelligence Space Program Dwayne A. Day

CONCLUSIONS Space Politics and Policy: Facing the Future 389 John M. Logsdon

NOTES 395

INDEX 495 viii Space Politics and Policy

FIGURES

Introduction: Framework of Space Politics and Policy. xv

Figure 1.1. Paradigm of Space Exploration. 8

Figure 4.1. NASA’s Budget: Congress and the President. 77

Figure 6.1. US Federal Government Space Outlays. 106

Figure 8.1. Evolution of Environmental Ethics. 156

Figure 10.1. US Federal Government Spending on Non- 187 Military R&D by Category.

Figure 10.2. Estimates of the Economic Value of the 191 Geostationary Orbit for Countries in the Pacific Rim.

Figure 11.1. Risk-Commercial Return on Investment 212 Relationship.

Figure 11.2. World Revenue for Space Industry Segments. 223

Figure 14.1. International Space Station Hardware 299 Responsibilities. ix TABLES

Table 2.1. Public Policy Statements Regarding Space 32 Activities.

Table 2.2. Rationales and Space Policy. 33

Table 8.1. Evolution of Environmental Politics and Policy. 152

Table 8.2. Ethical Frameworks of Space Policy. 161

Table 10.1. Comparison of Space Debris Management 199 Strategies.

Table 11.1. Commercial Launch Vehicle LEO Pricing 211 Comparisons.

Table 13.1. Historical Evolution of Rocketry Development. 250

Table 13.2. Major Space Projects of the 1960s. 260

Table 14.1. Historical Evolution of International Space 284 Cooperation.

Table 14.2. Global Change Science Collaboration. 306

Table 14.3. Dynamics of International Space Cooperation. 311

Table 14.4. Classification of International Space Cooperation 312 Outcomes.

Table 16.1. Force Enhancement Mission Areas. 340

Table 16.2. Attributes of Military Space Doctrines. 342

Table 16.3. Space Weapons Continuum. 343 x Space Politics and Policy

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The genesis of this book began back in 1997 when I recognized a need for establishing a conceptual framework by which to understand and explain Space Policy. To this end I took the initiative to make that a reality, which is this book. The beginning of this book project took place at a Space Politics and Policy Workshop held at NASA Headquarters in Washington DC in 1998 among all the contributing authors. This workshop was sponsored by a grant from the Institute for National Security Studies of the United States Air Force Academy, which I am grateful for and in which Peter L. Hays played an important role in securing, and supported logistically by the NASA History Office and in particular Roger D. Launius, who provided at the onset much needed philosophical guidance and moral support for the book. In the course of the four years following this workshop, I received the chapters from the contributing authors and undertook the extensive job of editing and finishing to write my own chapters in the book. As the contributing authors will recognize, I took a more hands-on approach to the editing task and hence, many chapters have additional material and insights that I feel make the book more cohesive. I guess this is the editor’s challenge as well as prerogative. As such, I retain responsibility for any errors of fact and judgment or misconstrued insights. I would like to thank all contributing authors- Willy Z. Sadeh, Roger D. Launius, Roger Handberg, Christopher J. Bosso, W. D. Kay, Linda T. Krug, Joan Johnson-Freese, Howard E. McCurdy, James P. Lester, Nathan C. Goldman, Molly K. Macauley, James A. Vedda, David M. Livingston, Stephen B. Johnson, Xavier Pasco, Laurence Jourdain, Peter L. Hays, Dwayne A. Day, and John M. Logsdon. The expertise and insights into Space Policy provided by the contributing authors are reflected here in the pages of this book. Of the contributing authors, the late James P. Lester, my Ph.D. adviser from 1995 to 1999, was instrumental in helping me to develop the concept and framework for the book, and Peter L. Hays made sure that the national security parts of the space program were properly accounted for. Also, I need to thank the Department of Space Studies at the University of North Dakota, where I currently serve as Assistant Professor of Space Studies, for logistical support, and my graduate research assistant in the Department, Trent Benisch, for his help in editing some of the Tables and Figures and in helping me to complete the research for the book. Lastly, my late father, Willy Z. Sadeh, is the one who inspired me to always challenge the impossible and instilled in me that space is representative of that challenge. It is due to his inspiration foremost that I developed the idea for this book and made this book a reality.

Eligar Sadeh, 31 May 2002 xi

PROLOGUE HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION: A MYTH OR A MUST

Willy Z. Sadeh (1932-1997)*

One of the major questions to be answered in this time of profound change is whether space exploration is a myth or a must as humankind enters the twenty-first century. Historically, the space age started about forty years ago in the mid 1950s with both American and Soviet plans to conduct satellite observations during the 1957-58 International Geophysical Year. The first two milestones of the space age were the orbiting of artificial Earth satellites, Sputnik in October 1957 and the American Explorer four months later in January 1958. The establishment of NASA in July 1958 laid the foundations of the United States civil space program that are still effective today and undoubtedly will be in the future. Subsequent milestones were the first manned flights in space by Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin in April 1961, followed by American astronaut Alan B. Shepherd in May 1961. The landmark achievement of the space age to date was the Apollo 11 mission that landed Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin, the first men on the Moon, on 20 July 1969. Over a period of eleven years, 1958 to 1969, engineering evolved from launching small satellites to Saturn V boosters capable of sending humans on a voyage to the Moon. The launch of Skylab in the 1970s, the Soyuz, the Space Shuttle, the Space Station Mir, and the International Space Station represent the first steps toward the settlement of the space frontier. Earth is the only planet within the Solar System that we know of that sustains life. Why does life exist on Earth and does life exist on other planets such as Mars? A question of even greater significance is whether other planetary systems that sustain life exist within other solar systems. These questions touch on our very existence as a life form. Exploration and discovery are the driving forces behind human existence. The moment we stop exploring, we cease being human beings. From the day we are born we explore. First, we explore our immediate environment and next the entire world. Exploration depends upon the availability of technology required to support it; explorers of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, Christopher Columbus, Americo Vespucci, Vasco de Gama, and Ferdinand Magellan were able to sail the oceans and open the gates of the Americas and beyond because navigation and shipbuilding technology allowed them to do so. The Wright Brother’s powered flight at Kitty Hawk nearly one hundred years ago (in December 1903) laid the

* Former Professor of Space Engineering, Colorado State University. xii Space Politics and Policy foundations for aeronautical technology that provided the first transpacific service by the 1930s and eventual air exploration of the world. A combination of vision, political commitment, funding, and technology governs the open-ended avenue of human space exploration. The vision is here; space exploration has been the dream of humankind since ancient times. Today, the technology required for space exploration is available. Political commitment and allocation of funds are needed. Human space exploration beyond the International Space Station starts with a permanently human-tended base on the Moon followed by human exploration of Mars. Together with this exploration goes exploitation of space resources for the benefit of humankind. This includes both global observation of the Earth to control our own environment and the import of “limitless” resources from space. When Columbus opened the gates to the European settlement of the Americas more than 500 hundred years ago, nobody could predict that today we would have a United States of America. Now we are on the verge of starting the human exploration of the space frontier and becoming a spacefaring civilization. Can we predict how the world, or for that matter outer space, will look five centuries from now? The human spirit of exploration cannot be stopped; at most it can be momentarily slowed down by political and budgetary constraints. It is these constraints that are examined in this important book, Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary Perspective. Any civilization that does not challenge the impossible is doomed to fail. And, the impossible for our civilization is the human settlement of the infinite space frontier. xiii

INTRODUCTION

SPACE POLITICS AND POLICY: AN EVOLUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE

Eligar Sadeh*

“The lesson to me seems clear: there may be no way to send humans to Mars [or back to the Moon] in the comparatively near future, despite the fact that it is entirely within our technological capability. Governments do not spend vast sums just for science, or merely to explore. They need another purpose, and it must make real political sense.”

Carl Sagan

In his recent book, Pale Blue Dot, the late professor and astronomer Carl Sagan makes the case that political forces will largely dictate the future of the space program. Nevertheless, space policy as a subject matter for research and teaching has not received the attention of the academic community in a significant way. More generally, space studies education has not been accepted by national educational systems to any great extent despite the enormous wealth of new knowledge it offers. Yet, space may become one of the most important public policy issues in the twenty-first century. With the recent discovery of possible microbial life forms on Mars and the intriguing possibility of life elsewhere, such as on Europa and Titan, the prospect of ecological collapse in many parts of the world due to global change processes, the enormous natural resource wealth that space offers, and even the probability of Earth being hit by an asteroid, serious attention to space exploration and development of space is justified. Indeed, according to Carl Sagan, it is an imperative for “species survival” and human evolution. A space studies education is an important component of our knowledge base that provides the means for better choices about how to utilize the space environment for human benefit. Given that exploring and developing space “must make real political sense,” understanding and explaining the “crucial political variables,” such as historical conditions, political processes and policy outcomes, organizational and administrative

* Professor of Space Studies, University of North Dakota xiv Space Politics and Policy factors, economic and legal aspects, and scientific and technological forces, which determine space policy now and in the future, is important for students and decision-makers of space policy. Political scientists, historians, economists, lawyers, sociologists, philosophers and others have much to offer in terms of increasing our understanding of space policy. Moreover, space, as an issue for national and foreign policy, will only become more salient as the twenty-first century progresses.

AN EVOLUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE

The goal of Space Politics and Policy: An Evolutionary Perspective is to provide an overview and primer for the field of space policy. This book is organized around two themes: (1) space policy is evolutionary in that it has responded to dramatic political events, such as the launching of Sputnik and the Cold War, and has undergone dynamic and evolutionary policy changes over the course of the space age; and (2) space policy is an integral part of and interacts with public policy processes in the United States and abroad. The book analyzes space policy at several levels of analysis including historical context, political actors and institutions, political processes and policy outcomes; examines the symbiotic relationships between policy, technology, and science; provides a review and synthesis of the existing body of knowledge in space policy; and identifies space policy trends and developments from the beginnings of the space age through the current era of the twenty-first century. The “Space Politics and Policy Framework” shown below was developed to represent the evolutionary perspective of space policy. This framework serves as the basic organizing and conceptual scheme for this book. Space Policy involves both the process (Space Politics) of policy formation and policy change over time, and the courses of action taken to achieve political and technological determined outcomes (Space Policy). Space Politics involves the process by which historic conditions, rationales for space, and advocacy coalitions interact with and impact agenda-setting; actors and institutions (Presidents, Congress, and the space bureaucracy) interact with and impact public policy formulation and implementation; and how policy outcomes bring about policy change (emergence of privatization and commercialization). Space Policy deals with the outcomes that include such areas as the environment, law, commerce, international cooperation, and national security. The evolution of Space Policy over time takes place through policy change. On this basis, public policy processes over the course of the space age, represented by in the Framework, have involved the mobilization of governmental resources, actors, and institutions. Concomitantly, nongovernmental actors, such as private corporations and commercial enterprises, increasingly play a role in developing space. in xv the Framework denotes this evolution in Space Policy. As a result, market factors in addition to political forces influence Space Policy. This book is divided into three parts and a conclusion each of which address an aspect of the Space Politics and Policy Framework.

PART I. SPACE POLICY AGENDA-SETTING: HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Part I of this book examines the agenda-setting phase, which is largely the historical context under which space policies emerge. Agenda- setting is the political process of political legitimacy and feasibility. Legitimacy is a matter of issue recognition that occurs as a result of historic conditions that present a crisis or focusing event. Feasibility deals with how the policy issue is adopted and ultimately moved to the point of decision-making. Policy adoption is determined by the legitimacy of the rationale factors supporting space exploration and development of space activities. Lastly, the decision-making calculus– moving the political issue from agenda-setting to actual policy formulation such as in presidential decisions, congressional legislation, and public law– is influenced by advocacy coalitions. xvi Space Politics and Policy

The first chapter in this part, Historical Dimensions of the Space Age, provides an overview of the historical conditions and themes underlying the context wherein space politics and policy takes place. Chapter 2, Rationales of the Space Program, explores how the legitimacy and feasibility of space activities are shaped by the way in which the space program is justified. The third chapter, Advocacy Coalitions and Space Policy, examines how space-related advocacy groups play roles in the political process.

PART II. SPACE POLICY FORMULATION AND IMPLEMENTATION: ACTORS AND INSTITUTIONS

Part II of this book focuses on the political actors and institutions, and how they engender space policy formulation and implementation. Policy formulation is where acceptable courses of action for dealing with some particular problem are identified and enacted into public law or policy decisions. An underlying theme is that the space politics is one of coalition building that involves a plurality of political actors that include the President, Congress, the space bureaucracy, advocacy coalitions, and commercial enterprises. Formulation, by its very nature, reflects many views, perspectives, and interests, and thus, involves a process of political accommodation leading to goal modification. In other words, the political process of formulation represents a compromise between what a space organization (like NASA) may want and might regard as most effective, efficient, or feasible, and what it perceives as the appropriate response to political forces. The political forces are shaped by the historical conditions. Policy formulation, in turn, is framed by the extent to which formulated policies are congruent with the rationale factors. The chapters on Presidents and Space Policy and Congress and Space Policy probe into this process of policy formulation. These chapters discuss how both the President and Congress essentially work, at times through conflict and at other times through cooperation, to co-determine space policy in the formulation stage. Policy implementation involves the development of the enabling space technologies and their application to the actual building of the hardware and systems to support space related projects and programs; it is “rocket science.” Clearly, technical ability and know-how are important variables affecting implementation. However, the technical skills of the implementers, such as national space agencies and commercial industries, are influenced by bureaucratic and associated economic issues as well as by the inherent organizational issues involved with developing and then administering complex space technologies. The chapters on Bureaucracy and the Space Program and Public Administration of the Space Program assess how political, bureaucratic, organizational, and administrative forces all play roles xvii

that can either enable or constant how the space implementers go about their business of rocket science.

PART III. SPACE POLICY OUTCOMES

Formulation and implementation lead to specific policy outcomes. The outcome areas explored in this book include the environment, law, commerce, cooperation, and national security. Space and the environment are inextricably linked through the use of space to assess global environmental change here on Earth. The Space and the Environment chapter examines the policy issues related to Earth observations from space, and then proceeds to address the environmental and ethical concerns related to space exploration activities. Space law has played an essential role in ensuring the free and peaceful use of space. The Space Law chapter looks at the evolution of space law since Sputnik and assesses the current issues and status of space law. Space commence is recognized as the fundamental policy change of the space program. As a whole, the chapters on Economics of Space, Space Commerce, Space Business, and Ethics and Off-Earth Commerce provide a thorough examination of the economic, commercial, business, and even ethical issues of space commercialization. With the end of the Cold War, international cooperation, rather than international conflict, has emerged as a major driving force for advancing government and commercial space programs. The evolution and dynamics of space cooperation are evaluated in the chapter on International Space Cooperation. Albeit this book focuses on the United States (US) space program, there exist other significant space programs. The chapter on Comparative Space Policy compares the evolutionary trajectory of the US program in relation to the European and French space programs. Finally, it is essential to understand that the government-based civil space program is just one of several space programs. These other programs include the commercial one, which is examined in the chapters dealing with economics, commerce, and business, the military space program, and the intelligence space program. The evolution and policy issues related to these latter two programs are reviewed in the chapters on Space and the Military and Intelligence Space Program.

SPACE POLICY CHANGE

Space policy change is a theme that is prevalent throughout the book and is reflective of the “evolutionary perspective.” The concluding chapter to this book encapsulates the evolution of space policy from the Apollo era to the present. Of importance, is how the evolution has made space policy part and parcel of the political discourse on public policy, whether directed xviii Space Politics and Policy for furthering governmental or commercial ends. In this regard, outer space, as this book indicates, has evolved from the “extraordinary” to the “ordinary.” Visions of a spacefaring future where humanity settles the Solar System still captivate the imagination, but as an issue of policy space is pervasive in advancing important utilitarian undertakings.