(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1199

USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CUWS Outreach Journal 1199 22 January 2016

Feature Item: “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons”. Authored by Paul K. Kerr, Analyst in Nonproliferation and Mary Beth Nikitin, Specialist in Nonproliferation; published by the Congressional Research Service: January 14, 2016. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34248.pdf Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal probably consists of approximately 110-130 nuclear warheads, although it could have more. Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, deploying additional nuclear weapons, and new types of delivery vehicles. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking military action against Pakistan, but Islamabad’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal, development of new types of nuclear weapons, and adoption of a doctrine called “full spectrum deterrence” have led some observers to express concern about an increased risk of nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India, which also continues to expand its nuclear arsenal.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. Russia, U.S. and the UK Named Nuclear Security Leaders 2. EU, Russia May Nuke Asteroids 3. ‘Steps’ toward Pit Production Made at Los Alamos

U.S. Counter-WMD 1. Maine off List for Possible Ballistic Missile Defense Site on East Coast 2. Self Defense? US Mulls Behemoth Ballistic Missile Ship 3. Pentagon Eyes Laser-Armed Drones to Shoot Down Ballistic Missiles 4. US to Test First ICBM Intercept in 2016 - Missile Defense Agency

U.S. Arms Control 1. Russia to Maintain Level of Nuclear Restraint for National Interests 2. Russian Armed Forces to Get 9 Upgraded Strategic Bombers in 2016 — General Staff 3. Russian Nuclear Forces Receive 10 Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22 Strategic Bombers

Asia/Pacific 1. US Doubts Sincerity of North Korea’s Nuclear Test Proposal 2. Japan: North Korea Can Miniaturize Nuclear Weapons 3. Pyongyang Could Have Tested 'Boosted Fission Bomb' or Simply Ordinary Nuclear Weapon 4. N.K.'s 'Technical Capability' Has Not Increased after Nuclear Test: Senior U.S. Official 5. More Nuclear, Missile Tests Required for N.K. to Master Miniaturization Technology: CRS Report

Europe/Russia 1. Corbyn: We Can Keep Trident Submarines but Without Warheads 2. General Kapashin: Chemical Weapons Destruction Resumes in Russia 3. Jeremy Corbyn's Trident Compromise 'Pointless', Michael Fallon says

Middle East 1. PMO: Iran Continues to Pursue Nuclear Weapon, Will Destabilize Middle East 2. Amano Confirms Iran's Compliance with All Steps to Start Implementation of Nuclear Deal 3. Obama Signs Executive Order Revoking Iran Sanctions 4. Pres. Rouhani: US Breach of JCPOA Likely 5. US Imposes Sanctions on Iran for Ballistic Missile Program 6. Iran Raps New US Sanctions, Vows to Continue Missile Program 7. Spokesman: 28 Iranians Had Charges Dropped or Released Under Swap Deal with US 8. Iran's Response to US to Come Where it Matters: General 9. China to Build 2 Nuclear Power Plants in Iran: AEOI Chief 10. Leader Urges Appropriate Reaction to Any Violation of JCPOA 11. Zarif: New US sanctions over Iran Missile Program Illegal 12. IRGC Advisor: Missile Programs Would Soon Come to Fruition 13. Kerry Warns Saudi Arabia of Consequences if They Get Nukes 14. GCC Working on Joint Missile Defense: Bahrain 15. Iran Was Moving towards Producing Nukes, Kerry Claims 16. US to Continue Using Sanctions against Iran, Says Kerry

India/Pakistan 1. Ra’ad Missile Test-Launched 2. Around 130 Pak Nuclear Warheads Aimed at Deterring India: US Govt Report

Commentary 1. Why the World Should Fear North Korea's Biological Weapons 2. North Korean H-Bomb? Not Yet, but Time is Not on Our Side 3. North Korea’s Latest Nuclear Test: Probably Not for Deterrence 4. The Chinese Plans to Nuke America Return to Top

Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH) – Moscow, Russia Russia, U.S. and the UK Named Nuclear Security Leaders All three countries improved nuclear security. Kommersant January 15, 2016 According to the Nuclear Security Index (NTI), developed biennially with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Russia has improved its nuclear materials security conditions. As the 2016 NTI Index shows, Russia, the U.S., India, and the UK have become the most improved nuclear-armed states in terms of nuclear security. The NTI Index assesses the security of the world’s deadliest materials, including highly enriched uranium and plutonium, based on two sets of data – theft ranking and sabotage ranking. Nuclear security is a much-discussed topic at the moment. The 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which was held in New York and lasted almost a month, was unsuccessful: the U.S. and their allies vetoed the final document of the Conference at the last minute. The stumbling block was the question of ridding the Middle East from Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). Russia and the Arab states suggested that the talks on the issue begin within the year, however, the U.S. took the Israeli side by proposing a number of prerequisites for participation in this process. First published in Russian in Kommersant. http://rbth.com/defence/2016/01/15/russia-us-and-the-uk-named-nuclear-security- leaders_559799 Return to Top

The Telegraph – London, U.K. EU, Russia May Nuke Asteroids Blowing up comets and asteroids with nuclear bombs is just one way to save the planet from an Armageddon-style impact, say scientists. By Roland Oliphant, Moscow 17 January 2016 The European Commission funded Russian scientists to develop plans to save the world from rogue asteroids by blowing them up with nuclear weapons. Scientists from the Russia’s top space research institute teamed up with missile and rocket engineers to look at ways of sending a warhead into space under a European Commission funded program called NEOShield. “Work was distributed among various participants from different countries and organisations, and work on deflecting dangerous space objects with nuclear explosions was conducted by Russia”

Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama between 2012 and 2015, the Central Scientific Research Institute of Machine Building, part of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, said in a press release on Saturday. The stationing and use of nuclear weapons in space is banned under the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, but Russian researchers believe that governments may drop objections to firing a nuclear- tipped missiles into deep space if the planet is in imminent danger. “If the asteroid threat becomes a matter of serious damage or even the very existence of life on earth, that ban would naturally be lifted,” the institute said. Scientists concluded that the safest method would be to carry out the detonation while the asteroid was still in deep space, and the aim would be to alter the object's course and direct it away from the Earth, rather than to destroy it. The idea is that a nuclear explosion close to a comet or asteroid would burn up some of the object’s mass, in turn producing a jet-thrust effect which would change its orbit. The Earth has suffered multiple large asteroid impacts in its history, including a six-mile wide object believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs when it crashed into what is now Mexico. More recently, nearly 1,500 people were injured and 7000 buildings damaged when a 20 meter wide meteor exploded over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk in 2013. In 1908 a much larger asteroid, estimated to have been 60 to 190 metres across, flattened 770 square miles of uninhabited forest when it exploded over Tunguska in Siberia with the force of 1000 Hiroshima bombs. Scientists believe that it is a question of when, not if, another potentially devastating impact occurs. And using nuclear bombs - or “blast deflection” - is just one option NEOShield researchers looked into. Other proposals include a “kinetic impactor,” which would attempt to alter an asteroid’s course by crashing a spacecraft into it, and a “gravity tractor,” which would use the small gravitational attraction between an asteroid and a nearby spacecraft to nudge it onto a different orbit. Details of the research emerged as Russia announced plans to establish an early warning centre to scan the skies for potentially dangerous objects on a collision course with earth. In a statement outlining new goals for the Russian space program up to 2025, the Institute said it would develop special software to track asteroids approaching the planet. The “space barrier” project would use four observation satellites - two in geostationary orbit around the earth and two following the Earth’s orbit around the sun - to scan space for any sizeable asteroid that could present a threat to the planet. “It’s a unique concept and may be the most effective for proactive detection of dangerous celestial bodies 30 days or more prior to their entry into the Earth's atmosphere,” the Institute said. NEOShield brought together 11 research institutions, including Queen’s University Belfast and the Surrey Space Centre at the University of Surrey. A three-year follow up program, called NEOShield- 2, was launched in March 2015.

The Central Scientific Research Insitute of Machine Building, also known by its Russian acronyn TsNIImash, is Russia's leading developer of space technology and has been involved in the testing and experimentation on almost all Russian space vehicles and launchers. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12103720/EU-Russia-may-nuke- asteroids.html Return to Top

Albuquerque Journal – Albuquerque, NM ‘Steps’ toward Pit Production Made at Los Alamos By Mark Oswald, Journal Staff Writer Friday, January 22nd, 2016 SANTA FE, N.M. — The federal Department of Energy has given approval to changes at Los Alamos National Laboratory that are “steps along the way” toward resuming production of so-called plutonium “pits,” the triggers for nuclear weapons. The moves endorsed by the DOE include a big increase in plutonium capacity at an existing facility at Los Alamos and new laboratory space in underground “modules” for pit production, part of plans to replace the lab’s old Chemical and Metallurgy Research (CMR) Building for plutonium work, and get pit production up and rolling. The changes have been reported by the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB), a Congressional oversight agency, and follow directives over the past few years from the Department of Defense and Congress to ramp up pit production for upgrades or changes to the nation’s nuclear weapons force. The Nuclear Watch New Mexico watchdog group, in a news release last week, said the recent moves “make explicit” the decision to expand pit-production capabilities at Los Alamos. DOE actions, open to interpretation absent detailed information or explanation from the federal agency, may also suggest that Los Alamos will handle all the plutonium work associated with making pits after prior discussion of farming out some of the work to other parts of the nation’s nuclear weapons complex. One approved “restructuring,” for instance, will re-categorize the Radiological Laboratory Utility Office Building at Los Alamos from its current radiological limit of 38.6 grams of plutonium-239 more than 10 times to 400 grams to support the increased capacity “required for larger pit manufacturing rates,” which the government intends to be at 50 to 80 units per year by 2030. The RLUOB facility can provide analytical chemistry testing as part of the plutonium work. The changes OK’d by DOE also raise the question of whether cheaper alternatives to building the new modular facilities, including several options offered in reports by the Congressional Research Service in 2014 and 2015, have been rejected, are still on the table or could be combined with the $2 billion modular plan that now has initial “mission need” approval. In response to Journal questions, a spokeswoman for DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration provided a statement saying: “NNSA pursues a plutonium strategy that optimizes existing facilities and addresses future program needs to create a responsive infrastructure.

Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “The FY 2016 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) states that a modern, responsive infrastructure, which includes the capability to produce up to 50 to 80 pits per year, is a national security priority. The memos referenced in the DNFSB report document steps along the way to meet this need.” The statement adds that the DOE has also approved “the mission need for the Plutonium Modular Approach,” or adding the underground modules for pit work. Those plans as described previously would link the new underground facilities to existing LANL buildings via tunnels. “Approval of the mission need allows the NNSA to begin the next step for this proposed project, which is developing a rigorous Analysis of Alternatives,” the NNSA statement adds. “NNSA continues to ensure that all our activities are executed safely, securely and in a manner consistent with applicable regulatory requirements.” Greg Mello, of the watchdog Los Alamos Study Group, questioned if there can be “a rigorous analysis of alternatives” if NNSA has already decided on the “modular approach.” The cost for two underground module facilities has been estimated at $1 billion each. That’s less expensive than a previously planned CMR replacement facility at Los Alamos that was scuttled as cost estimates skyrocketed from mere millions of dollars to several billion and safety concerns were raised. But Congressional Research Service reports over the past two years have suggested that better management of and improvements to existing facilities could be cheaper alternatives than expensive new buildings. A U.S. Senate appropriations committee wrote in 2014, “Before proposing the construction of laboratory modules, the Committee believes NNSA must first conduct a realistic and thorough assessment of alternatives which explores the use of existing facilities across DOE and NNSA labs and sites to meet plutonium mission needs,” according to a report in the Nuclear Security and Deterrence Monitor. ‘Sisyphean’ task? The difficult task of pit production has been a long-term issue for DOE. One of the Congressional Research Service reports, by Jonathan Medalia in 2014, describes the government’s efforts to produce pits as “Sisyphean,” referring to Sisyphus, the character in Greek mythology condemned to an eternity of trying to roll a giant boulder uphill, only to see it to roll downhill again, over and over. During the Cold War, as many as 2,000 pits per year were made at the Rocky Flats Plant in Colorado. That stopped in 1989 after an FBI raid search for safety and environmental violations. Since then, there have been several failed efforts to develop facilities for high-level production of pits, Medalia noted. But only 29 pits have been made since Rocky Flats – at Los Alamos between 2007 and 2011 – for replacement in submarine-launched ballistic warheads. Lab watchdogs in New Mexico don’t believe a case has been made for mass production of pits, even as they also question DOE’s plans for how to make more of the nuclear triggers. Coghlan of Nuclear Watch New Mexico said, “There is no need for expanded plutonium pit production to maintain the safety and reliability of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile, but it is vital for future new designs that the nuclear weaponeers want.” “NNSA claims about ‘optimizing existing facilities’ and executing all projects ‘safely, securely and consistent with applicable regulatory requirements’ are ambitions, not realities,” said Mello of the Los Alamos Study Group. “They need a large grain of salt. Each year for more than three decades, the Government Accountability Office has kept NNSA’s management of large projects on its ‘high risk list’ for waste, fraud, and abuse. Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

“Most NNSA projects run far beyond cost and schedule estimates. Some are simply abandoned. On this project alone, NNSA has already wasted at least $500 million and a decade on failed designs. “Prior to this particular ongoing fiasco project, the Congressional Research Service lists six earlier attempts to build new pit production factories which failed,” he continued. “Why do they fail? Because there is no need for a new pit factory. The U.S. has about five thousand extra plutonium pits, about two thousand in deployed warheads and bombs, and more than two thousand in reserve warheads. All the pits in the current stockpile will last several decades longer, to around 2080. In addition to all these, ten thousand surplus pits sit in bunkers in Texas.” http://www.abqjournal.com/710234/news/steps-toward-pit-production-made-at-los-alamos.html Return to Top

Defense News – Tysons Corner, VA Maine off List for Possible Ballistic Missile Defense Site on East Coast By Jen Judson, Defense News January 15, 2016 WASHINGTON -- The Missile Defense Agency has determined, due to environmental and cost concerns, to take a site in Maine off its list of possible future East Coast ballistic missile defense sites, according to an agency statement. The Center for Security Forces Detachment Kittery Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape Facility (SERE East) in Redington Township, Maine, was under consideration for a possible missile interceptor site, but after a survey conducted by the MDA and other federal and state agencies, it was determined that the site “presented irreversible environmental impacts, significant constructability concerns, and extensive costs associated with developing infrastructure in a remote area,” the statement reads. The Fiscal Year 2013 National Defense Authorization Act required the MDA to conduct environmental impact studies to look at possible sites for additional ground-based interceptors for homeland defense. The agency said the other candidate sites in New York, Ohio and Michigan will continue to be considered. The remaining possible sites are Fort Drum in New York, the Fort Custer Training Center in Michigan and the Camp Ravenna Joint Training Center in Ohio. The MDA notes in the statement that the Pentagon has not made a decision on whether it will actually end up building an additional interceptor site on the East Coast. However, “if a decision were to be made in the future to construct a new site, completing the required site studies and Environmental Impact Statement would shorten the timeline required to build such a site,” the agency states. The Ground-based Midcourse Defense System has two sites currently in Alaska and California where ground-based interceptors are in place for protection from possible ballistic missile attacks from countries such as North Korea and Iran.

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Self Defense? US Mulls Behemoth Ballistic Missile Ship 17 January 2016 Washington is pondering the construction of a missile defense version of the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock (LPD-17), according to Dave Majumdar, defense editor of the US international affairs magazine National Interest. Dave Majumdar, defense editor of the US international affairs magazine National Interest, writes that the US Navy is mulling building a ballistic missile defense version of the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock (LPD-17). Apparently, navy officials are already in talks with representatives of the shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls, and that the new vessel may "eventually be equipped with new radars, railguns and lasers." As for the LPD-17, this massive 25,000-ton troop carrier has technical characteristics which are fully in line with a new mission, according to Majumdar. He quoted industry officials as saying that "deleting the ship's well deck would greatly add to the vessel's weight and stability margins, which, in turn, would allow the LPD-17 hull form to accommodate the enormous weight of a next generation ballistic missile defense radar." Majumdar explained that this radar would provide much greater coverage compared to the current SPY-1 radars installed on board the Aegis warships or the Advanced Missile Defense Radar planned for the DDG-51 Flight III destroyers.

"Closing the well deck would free up space to host many more missile tubes than would be possible on a destroyer or cruiser. Some sources suggest that an LPD hull might be able to double the missile capacity of an Aegis cruiser," Majumdar said. He added that building a missile defense ship out of the LPD-17 hull form is not a new idea even though this was the first time that industry officials confirmed that they had discussed the matter with US Navy officials. Majumdar also called for a new ship to be turned into a multi-purpose vessel instead of being "solely dedicated to the missile defense mission." "With its massive hull, the ship could be used for everything from humanitarian and disaster relief, to command and control, to hosting special operations forces in addition to having the firepower of a major surface combatant," he pointed out. He concluded by saying that if completed, the project may become the biggest surface warship that was built for the US Navy since World War II. http://sputniknews.com/us/20160117/1033280646/united-states-warship-talks.html Return to Top

Defense One – Washington, D.C. Pentagon Eyes Laser-Armed Drones to Shoot Down Ballistic Missiles The high-flying aircraft would be the unmanned successors to the Air Force’s missile-zapping jetliner. By Marcus Weisgerber January 19, 2016 Four years after the Air Force’s missile-zapping Boeing 747 went to its final resting place in the Arizona desert, the Pentagon is thinking anew about airborne lasers that shoot down ballistic missiles. This time, they’d be mounted on smaller, higher-flying drones. The idea has been around for decades, but the Pentagon’s missile defense chief says its time may have come. The plan is to see how the laser technology matures over the next three years to fit it on a high-altitude drone, Vice Adm. James Syring, the Missile Defense Agency director, said Tuesday “We have significantly ramped up our program in terms of investment and talking about it more of what else needs to be done to mature this capability,” Syring said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in Washington. Such drones would be designed to fly at 65,000 feet or higher, far above bad weather. They would stay aloft for days, even weeks, loitering around launch sites so they could fire upon enemy missiles as they lift off. The military has long sought a way to get at ballistic missiles in their vulnerable “boost phase,” drawing a bead on them before they reach full speed, deploy decoys, or take evasive action. The Pentagon spent 16 years and $5 billion building the Airborne Laser, a heavily modified Boeing 747 jetliner with a bulbous chemical laser on its nose. In 2010, it shot down a missile in a test.

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency US to Test First ICBM Intercept in 2016 - Missile Defense Agency The United States will carry out its first intercept test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) later in 2016, Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Director Vice Adm. James Syring said in a speech at the Center for Strategic International Studies. 20 January 2016 WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Russia has raised concerns that the US ballistic missile defense (BMD) architecture could be used to target Russia’s strategic deterrent. Chinese authorities have raised similar concerns about US BMD systems targeting its nuclear deterrent under the guise of the North Korea threat. "Later this year, meaning this calendar year, we will fly for the first time an ICBM with countermeasures, and that will be an intercept test," Syring stated on Tuesday. The United States has been working to develop missile defense systems capable of defeating the long-ranges and high velocities of an ICBM that "would be applicable from a North Korea or Iran type of scenario," Syring explained. Following the ICBM intercept test in 2016, the MDA will run a similar test using two ground-based interceptors against one ICBM target. In the past five years, the United States has successfully intercepted short and medium-range ballistic missiles. http://sputniknews.com/military/20160120/1033401719/icbm-test-intercept.html Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Russia to Maintain Level of Nuclear Restraint for National Interests Russian Deputy Security Council Secretary stated that Russia’s national interests dictate the need to maintain its potential in nuclear restraint. 18 January 2016 MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia’s national interests dictate the need to maintain its potential in nuclear restraint, Russian Deputy Security Council Secretary Evgeny Lukyanov said Monday. “Russia will continue to place top-level attention to issues of disarmament and observing the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But it needs to be understood that the national interests of our country dictate the need to maintain our own potential in [nuclear] restraint that guarantees the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia,” Lukyanov said. Additions to Russia’s national security strategy have been included because of the heightened situation that has accumulated over the last few years, Evgeny Lukyanov said. “The additions have been added taking into account the tension of the international situation that has occurred over the last few years. The United States and its allies continue their course of struggling against multipolar world order and centers of power that are alternate to the West. Military and political unions, as well as economic unions oriented toward Washington, are growing, and a policy of destabilizing [political] regimes that are objectionable to the United States is continuing,” Lukyanov said. Russia’s new strategy in its national security gives particular attention to the Arctic because it is traditionally linked to the country’s national interests, Russian Deputy Security Council Secretary added. “Much attention has been given to the Arctic region, to which Russian national interests have ben traditionally linked,” Lukyanov said. The Arctic is considered to be a major source of hydrocarbons, minerals, fresh water and fish. The region's resources are a matter of interest for the states bordering the area; the countries of the Arctic Council, including Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, the United States and Sweden. In 2013, Moscow announced a strategy to bolster its presence in the Arctic and boost the region's development by 2020. Since then, Russia has been particularly active in exploring opportunities in the Arctic and is planning to build a unified network of military facilities in the region in order to strengthen its border defense. http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160118/1033304400/russia-maintain-level-nuclear- restraint.html Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Russian Nuclear Forces Receive 10 Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22 Strategic Bombers The Russian Aerospace Forces received 10 advanced strategic bombers Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22 while the Navy got two strategic missile cruisers. 22 January 2016 MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia’s nuclear strategic forces have received 10 modernized Tu-160, Tu-95, and Tu-22 strategic bombers, head of the Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov said Friday. “We have received new means of weaponry, new missiles…We have received for the Russian Navy two new strategic missile cruisers, the Alexander Nevsky and the Vladimir Monamakh, and from the industry, we have received for the aviation strategic nuclear forces 10 modernized strategic bombers, the Tu-160, Tu-95, and Tu-22,” Gerasimov said. In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia must strengthen its nuclear forces. Following the president's statement, Gerasimov said that maintaining the country's nuclear forces would be a key priority for the Russian Armed Forces in 2016. http://sputniknews.com/military/20160122/1033530424/tu-160-tu-95-tu-22.html Return to Top

Global Times – Beijing, China US Doubts Sincerity of North Korea’s Nuclear Test Proposal Source: Reuters-Global Times January 18, 2016 The United States said on Saturday they find hard to take North Korea's proposal - to cease its nuclear tests in exchange for the halting of US military exercises with South Korea - seriously after North Korea's forth nuclear test. "Still valid are all proposals for preserving peace and stability in the peninsula and Northeast Asia, including those on halting our nuclear tests and concluding a peace treaty in exchange for a halt to US joint military exercises," North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency reported, citing a statement from its foreign ministry spokesperson on Friday. However, US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Pyongyang needs to demonstrate by its actions that it is serious about denuclearization for any dialogues to start, Reuters reported on Saturday. "We now have unfortunately a decade during which North Korea has totally reversed its obligations to the international community, when it comes to missile and nuclear programs," Blinken told a news conference in Tokyo. "So it's very hard to take any of their overtures very seriously, particularly in the wake of their fourth nuclear test," he said. North Korea said on January 6 it had tested a hydrogen bomb, provoking condemnation from its neighbors and the US. The isolated state has long sought a peace treaty with the United States as well as an end to military exercises between South Korea and the US, which has about 28,500 troops based in South Korea. Analysts said if North Korea is serious in halting its nuclear tests, the country should go back to the negotiating table instead of demanding prerequisites. Last week, the US and South Korea discussed the possibility of sending more strategic US weapons to the Korean Peninsula. China is not a major party in the Korean nuclear conflict. But China, as a force for peace, will continue to play a constructive role in a proper solution to the issue, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted by the Xinhua News Agency as saying on Friday. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/964138.shtml Return to Top

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea Pyongyang Could Have Tested 'Boosted Fission Bomb' or Simply Ordinary Nuclear Weapon January 20, 2016 North Korea's latest nuclear test could have involved a boosted fission weapon or simply a conventional nuclear bomb, and the communist nation might have exaggerated the test for political and other purposes, a congressional report said. The Congressional Research Service made the assessment in a report issued earlier this month, pointing out experts' views that the yield of the Jan. 6 test was too low to believe it involved a hydrogen bomb as claimed by Pyongyang.

"Another possibility discussed by technical experts is that the January 6 test was a 'boosted' fission weapon. Generally, countries would test a boosted fission weapon as the next step after testing fission weapons, on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb," the CRS report said. A boosted fission weapon is also "lighter in weight and smaller in size and may explain the North's claim that they have tested a 'mini H-bomb,'" the report said, adding that in order to be delivered on longer-range ballistic missiles, nuclear warheads need to be of a lower weight and size than the most simple nuclear fission bomb design would allow. "It is also possible that the device was a fission bomb, but that the North Korean government claimed it was a hydrogen bomb for other purposes such as domestic political support, deterrence impact on its neighbors, or possibly an exaggerated claim by scientists to the leadership," the report said. Following Pyongyang's H-bomb claims, the White House expressed strong skepticism, saying "initial analysis is not consistent" with the North's claims. U.S. nuclear experts have expressed doubts, saying its yield was too low to believe that such an advanced bomb, way more powerful than conventional nuclear weapons, had been detonated. The latest test marked the North's fourth nuclear test following previous ones in 2006, 2009 and 2013. (Yonhap) http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160120000187 Return to Top

Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea N.K.'s 'Technical Capability' Has Not Increased after Nuclear Test: Senior U.S. Official By Chang Jae-soon January 20, 2016 WASHINGTON, Jan. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's nuclear capability is not believed to have increased despite the communist nation's latest nuclear test, a senior U.S. missile defense official said Tuesday. "I would assess their technical capability has not increased," Vice Adm. James Syring, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, said when he was asked about his assessment of the North's nuclear test during a discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He didn't elaborate on the basis of his assessment. "That said, everything they're doing continues to be alarming and provoking," Syring said. "And every step that we've taken with the program I briefed and our actions every day are vitally important to stay ahead of that threat. We continue to watch it closely and continue to watch its actions with scrutiny." The official also said the North's test hasn't led to any change in the agency's missile defense program.

The Korea Times News Agency – Seoul, South Korea More Nuclear, Missile Tests Required for N.K. to Master Miniaturization Technology: CRS Report January 21, 2016 Additional nuclear and missile tests would be required for North Korea to master the technology to put a nuclear warhead on a long-range ballistic missile, a recent U.S. congressional research report said. The Congressional Research Service made the assessment in the Jan. 15 report, titled "North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation," saying the official position of the director of national intelligence (DNI) is that the North "has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile." "Miniaturization likely would require additional nuclear and missile tests," the report said. "Perhaps the most acute near-term threat to other nations is from the medium-range Nodong missile, which could reach all of the Korean Peninsula and some of mainland Japan."

The report also noted the White House cast doubts over the North's claims of a successful hydrogen bomb test. "The U.S. government confirmed that the underground explosion was a nuclear test, but a White House spokesman said that initial data was 'not consistent' with North Korean claims of detonating a full-fledged thermonuclear hydrogen bomb," the report said, adding that the North's three previous tests involved fission devices. It also raised the possibility that the North could have tested a "boosted fission weapon," saying testing such a device could be the next step after testing fission weapons on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb. Boosted fission weapons would also be lighter and smaller than a fission weapon with comparable yield, it said. The report also said the North's development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles is not considered an "imminent" threat, saying the December test of an SLBM was a "failure." "SLBM technology is extremely difficult to develop, and the reports of testing do not indicate that North Korea's prototype ballistic missile submarines represent an imminent threat," it said. It cited an unidentified expert on North Korean military affairs as saying, "under optimal conditions this (SLBM capability is) an emerging regional threat rather than an imminent threat. It does not represent an emerging intercontinental threat." (Yonhap) http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/01/485_195959.html Return to Top

The Chosun Ilbo – Seoul, South Korea U.S. Concludes N.Korea Did Not Test H-Bomb January 21, 2016 The U.S. Congressional Research Service has dismissed North Korea's claim that it tested a hydrogen bomb earlier this month, describing it instead as a "boosted fission weapon" or simply a "conventional nuclear bomb." Many experts have expressed doubt that the North has the technology to make an H-bomb, which would be much more powerful than a conventional nuclear bomb. They base their assessment on the lower-frequency seismic waves emitted by the test, the CRS said in a report. "Another possibility discussed by technical experts is that the Jan. 6 test was a 'boosted' fission weapon," it added. "Generally, countries would test a boosted fission weapon as the next step after testing fission weapons, on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb." James Syring of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency also said in a lecture at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday that Washington believes that North Korea's technological capabilities have not improved, so there has been no change in the U.S. missile defense program. http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/01/21/2016012101150.html Return to Top

Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea THAAD Will Help Counter N.K. Missile Threats: U.S. Think Tank By Shin Hyon-hee January 21, 2016 Amid North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile threats, the stationing of advanced U.S. missile assets on the peninsula would boost the allies’ defense capabilities, a leading Washington think tank said Wednesday. Speculation persists that Washington is seeking to deploy a unit of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in the South, though U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken reiterated that no decision has been made yet during a news conference in Seoul on Wednesday. In a comprehensive 290-page report commissioned by the Pentagon on the Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Seoul will benefit from the battery’s presence despite its ongoing program to develop a similar system on its own. “The ROK (South Korean) military has expressed interest in developing an indigenous THAAD-like system, but U.S. experience with these types of systems suggests a multi-decade effort would be required to develop and deploy such a missile defense system,” the document said. “Given the growing missile threat from North Korea, THAAD provides a valuable capability.” While many Seoul officials acknowledge THAAD’s perceived contribution to peninsula defense, Seoul is wary of the stiff opposition of China and Russia, which view its deployment here as de facto participation in the U.S.-led global missile defense program that they say is directed at them. South Korea remains unwavering in its stance that any battery positioning will be conducted with both its own security interests and Pyongyang’s threats taken into account. The military, for the time being, is currently striving to establish the Kill Chain and Korea Air and Missile Defense preemptive strike schemes by the early 2020s, which it argues will be interoperable with -- but not part of -- the U.S. systems. “U.S. complaints reflect frustration at a lack of transparent consultations by South Korea, and the lack of doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership and education, personnel and facilities internalization by the ROK military,” the report said. “Chinese demarches have made the potential U.S. deployment of THAAD on the peninsula a sensitive issue for Seoul, despite the fact that South Korea has no area defense capabilities against North Korean ballistic missiles.” In Seoul, President Park Geun-hye convened a pan-government meeting with about 230 cabinet members, top intelligence, military, police and local government chiefs to assess the security situation in the aftermath of the communist state’s fourth nuclear test and this year’s integrated defense policies. With the U.N. Security Council working on a new resolution, she reaffirmed her commitment to draw “all possible effective sanctions” to make Pyongyang “pay its price” for the recent provocation. The chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are also expected to hold their second meeting as early as next month, military officials here said Thursday, as the three partners are looking into uni- and trilateral punitive steps on the diplomatic, military and other various fronts.

“North Korea abandoned the people’s expectations and again threatened peace on the peninsula and the international community by pressing ahead with the nuclear experiment at the beginning of the new year,” Park said during the integrated defense talks. “What’s more concerning is that North Korea’s provocations against the South and military threats are increasingly sophisticated, which will further increase the security uncertainties on the peninsula.” http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160121000946 Return to Top

Herald Scotland – Glasgow, Scotland, U.K. Corbyn: We Can Keep Trident Submarines but Without Warheads Sunday, 17 January 2016 A furious new row has erupted within Labour over Trident after Jeremy Corbyn suggested the UK could retain the nuclear missile submarines, but they would go to sea without their warheads. The plan appeared designed to win over trade unions who fear that scrapping Trident - as the Labour leader wishes - would destroy tens of thousands of jobs in the defence industry. But the proposal was greeted with derision by pro-Trident Labour MPs, while the Conservatives said it showed that Labour was a "threat to national security". Mr Corbyn floated the idea during a wide-ranging interview in which he suggested opening up a line of communication with Islamic State (IS) and called for a "sensible dialogue" with Argentina over the Falkland Islands. Appearing on BBC1's The Andrew Marr Show he also pledged to repeal Conservative trade union laws banning sympathy strikes and did not rule out allowing the return of flying pickets. On Trident, Mr Corbyn reiterated his long-standing opposition to nuclear weapons but pointed out that the submarines which carry the Trident missiles could be deployed without their nuclear warheads on board. "They don't have to have nuclear warheads on them," he said. "There are options there." Shadow defence secretary Emily Thornberry, who is carrying out a review of the party's defence policy, later confirmed she was looking at the "Japanese option" - retaining the capacity to build nuclear weapons without actually possessing them. "That's certainly one that would be available to us, and that's one of the things that needs to be looked at," she told BBC1's Sunday Politics programme. But any hopes by the leadership that it would defuse potentially the most divisive issue facing the party were quickly dashed as pro-Trident MPs rushed to pour scorn on the plan. John Woodcock, the MP for Barrow and Furness, where the replacement submarines will be built, said it was completely implausible. "Having a deterrent that has no ability to deter because it has no missiles is like having an army with broken rifles and no ammunition," he said.

Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH) – Moscow, Russia General Kapashin: Chemical Weapons Destruction Resumes in Russia Russian Interfax News Service January 18, 2016 The process of chemical weapons destruction resumed in Russia in mid-January following routine regulation work, Colonel-General Valery Kapashin, the head of the Federal Directorate on Safe Storage and Destruction of Chemical Weapons, told Interfax-AVN on Jan. 18. "We are now destroying chemical weapons only at one, last facility in the village of Kizner, Udmurtia Republic, because the other six facilities have successfully completed the task," Kapashin said. Kapashin said a total of 36,770 tonnes of chemical weapons, which is over 92 percent of all chemical weapons resources, was destroyed in Russia as of early 2016. A total of 2,549 tonnes (44.4 percent of the planned amount) was destroyed on the Kizner facility. http://rbth.com/news/2016/01/18/general-kapashin-chemical-weapons-destruction-resumes-in- russia_560223 Return to Top

The London Guardian – London, U.K. Jeremy Corbyn's Trident Compromise 'Pointless', Michael Fallon says Defence secretary dismisses Labour leader’s ‘extremely dangerous’ proposal to build subs without nuclear weapons By Ewen MacAskill, Defence correspondent Thursday, 21 January 2016 The defence secretary, Michael Fallon, has dismissed Jeremy Corbyn’s proposed compromise on the Trident nuclear weapons programme in which submarines would be retained but go to sea without warheads as “pointless”, comparing it to going into a fight with an imitation gun. Fallon was speaking after a tour of HMS Vigilant, one of the UK’s four submarines that carry Trident missiles capped with nuclear warheads, docked at Faslane naval base on the Clyde. “If you are going to have a deterrent, you have to be prepared to use it,” he said, adding that he hoped a Labour review into the future of Trident would take into consideration the views of what he described as moderate Labour opinion. “If Labour maintains this new position against the deterrent, clearly they are a threat to national security because it means we would be less safe under a future Labour government. “I hope even now that their review, which is being led by a Labour leader who is anti-nuclear and a shadow defence secretary who is anti-nuclear, will listen to more moderate mainstream Labour voices. “It’s extremely dangerous, it will undermine our alliances, weaken our standing in the world and would threaten our safety.

The Jerusalem Post – Jerusalem, Israel PMO: Iran Continues to Pursue Nuclear Weapon, Will Destabilize Middle East Unless there is an appropriate response to each Iranian violation of its deal with the six world powers “Iran will surmise that it can continue to develop nukes." By LAHAV HARKOV and TOVAH LAZAROFF Saturday, 16 January 2016 Tehran will continue to destabilize the Middle East and spread terrorism throughout the world, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office warned late Saturday night after sanctions against Iran were officially liftedn.

“Israel will continue to monitor Iran's negative activities and will take all necessary measures to maintain its security and defend itself," the Prime Minister's Office said. It warned that “Iran has not abandoned its aspirations to acquire nuclear weapons and continues to destabilize the Middle East and spread terrorism throughout the world.” Unless there is an appropriate response to each Iranian violation of its deal with the six world powers “Iran will surmise that it can continue to develop nukes, destabilize the region and spread terror," the prime minister's office warned. Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan said that the deal’s implementation marks "a new and dangerous time in which Iran is free of most economic sanctions without having to stop its nuclear plan and without having to give explanations about its military activity as it had to in the past." Erdan pointed out Iran continues supplying arms to Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist groups, intervening in Gulf States' internal affairs and violating UN Security Council decisions about developing ballistic missiles. "This is a difficult day for all the countries in the region, which hoped that Iran will not be able to obtain nuclear weapons and stop its negative intervention in the area," he said. "Israel will continue following and demand from the international community not to ignore Iranian violations, in order to ensure that they won't be surprised like in the case of North Korea." "We cannot allow the optimism of the IAEA report to blind the international community," said Israel's ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon. "The removal of sanctions greases the wheels of the terror sponsored by Tehran around the world and Israel will continue to closely monitor all of Iran's activity, on both the nuclear threat and the threat of terror." Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman called it “symbolic” that shortly after sanctions on Iran are lifted, Tehran plans to hold a Holocaust caricature contest on January 27, International Holocaust Remembrance Day. “While Iran is busy with Holocaust denial, the whole world is living in denial and repressing the results of their agreement with Iran, which will be incredibly similar to the Munich Agreement and the accord signed with North Korea,” Liberman wrote on Facebook. http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran/PMO-Iran-continues-pursuit-towards-nuclear-weapon- will-destabilize-Middle-East-441729 Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran Sunday, January 17, 2016 Amano Confirms Iran's Compliance with All Steps to Start Implementation of Nuclear Deal TEHRAN (FNA) - International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano confirmed in an official statement on Saturday that Iran has complied with all its undertakings in compliance with the July nuclear deal in Vienna, preparing the way for the full annulment of all the sanctions against Iran in the next hour.

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 17 January 2016 Obama Signs Executive Order Revoking Iran Sanctions Tehran, Jan 17, IRNA – US President Obama signed an executive order Saturday revoking a 20-year system of sanctions against Iran. According to USA Today, the executive order finds that Iran's compliance with an international nuclear agreement- as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency Saturday - 'marks a fundamental shift in circumstances with respect to Iran's nuclear program.' The United States agreed to lift the sanctions as part of an international agreement requiring Iran to mothball its nuclear capabilities for a decade or more. The most significant effect of the executive order is to free up Iranian assets held in the international financial system, estimated to be worth between $50 billion and $150 billion. Obama administration officials have said they believe the value is on the lower end of that spectrum, because of Iran's international debts and the amount of currency it needs to keep in foreign reserves. The Treasury Department grant waivers for Americans to import food, carpets and other floor coverings from Iran.

And on Friday, Obama signed a presidential memorandum allowing the export of commercial passenger aircraft to Iran on a case by case basis. The Treasury Department also removed about 400 Iranians from its blocked persons list Saturday, unfreezing their assets and allowing them to do business with Americans. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81923386/ Return to Top

Mehr News Agency – Tehran, Iran Pres. Rouhani: US Breach of JCPOA Likely Sunday, 17 January 2016 TEHRAN, Jan. 17 (MNA) – President Hassan Rouhani said Iran’s nuclear program is no more a pretext for imposing sanctions and isolation, but a means of development of Iran and region . Talking in a press conference on implementation of JCPOA on Sunday, President Rouhani deemed the day as historic and exceptional in Iran’s political and economic arena, a turning point, which is bearing fruit after years of resistance and patience, nonstop efforts by nuclear scientists, politicians and diplomats as well as economic officials. “Today Iran’s nuclear program is a path to expansion of all-out ties in fields of economy, technology and science, not an excuse for pressing and imposing sanctions,” he underlined. Rouhani said “our nuclear program today is not falsely regarded as a threat to regional and international peace, but it is a way to modern technologies in benefit of Iran’s development and region’s stability”. “Iran proved that it enjoys a great power; power of diplomacy; now it is clear that dialogue can be held with the entire world in favor of the region and the world,” President Rouhani asserted. He further hailed the constructive role of Iran’s Leader of Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei in the procedure of nuclear negotiations, saying Iran would never reach this point if the Leader had not guided and supported the talks and the negotiating team. Regarding possible difficulties in implementation of JCPOA, he added that “such problems are likely; but regardless of the group which will seize power in US next year, they must know that commitments of the United States will remain in place and no matter who wins, they must be committed to it and UNSC Resolution 2231 proves this”. Highlighting efforts by the Zionists and radicals inside the United States to undermine the deal, President Rouhani asserted that the world has now realized that sanction policy is a ‘lose-lose’ for all; “world has now realized that Iran is trustworthy and the PMD issue proved that Iranian government is a moral government and has had no deviations in its nuclear path, so they now have more trust in us”. In response to a question on reaction to possible breach of JCPOA by the US, Iranian president emphasized that it ‘obviously’ was likely from US. “Our people have witnessed many unfair acts and lack of commitment form the US through history and the JCPOA will not make us trust the Americans; any action will have its proper reactions”.

Press TV – Tehran Iran US Imposes Sanctions on Iran for Ballistic Missile Program Sunday, January 17, 2016 The US Department of the Treasury says it has imposed new sanctions on Iran for its ballistic missile program. The Treasury Department made the announcement in a statement issued on Sunday, only a day after sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear energy program were lifted. The statement said five Iranian citizens and a network of companies based in the United Arab Emirates and China were added to a US blacklist. The network "obfuscated the end user of sensitive goods for missile proliferation by using front companies in third countries to deceive foreign suppliers," the statement said, adding that the five people had "worked to procure ballistic missile components for Iran." "Iran's ballistic missile program poses a significant threat to regional and global security, and it will continue to be subject to international sanctions,” said Adam J. Szubin, acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. On October 11, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) successfully test-fired its first guided ballistic missile dubbed Emad. Washington slammed the test, claiming the projectile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It vowed to respond with more sanctions. Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan said the Emad missile was a conventional weapon. The Iranian media have aired footage of an underground missile facility of the IRGC packed with Emad missiles. On Saturday, US President Barack Obama signed an executive order lifting US economic sanctions on Iran. Obama’s move came after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verified that Iran has implemented its commitments made in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and announced to remove international economic sanctions against the country.

Iran and the P5+1 - the United States, France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany - finalized the text of the JCPOA in Vienna, Austria, on July 14, 2015. Under the agreement, limits are put on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for, among other things, the removal of all nuclear-related economic and financial bans against the Islamic Republic. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/01/17/446175/US-imposes-new-sanctions-Iran/ Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iran Raps New US Sanctions, Vows to Continue Missile Program January 18, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iran’s Foreign Ministry censured the US government for imposing new sanctions against the Islamic Republic under the pretext of its recent ballistic missile test, saying that Tehran will respond to the move by pursuing its missile program more seriously. In a statement read out by Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari on Monday, the ministry described Washington’s new sanctions on 11 companies and individuals as “unilateral” and “ineffective”. The new sanctions came hours after termination of anti-Tehran sanctions following confirmations from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Tehran had made good on its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement finalized by Iran and six world powers in July 2015. “Unfortunately, the US government revealed its chronic addiction to unilateralism and ineffective sanctions by adding several companies to its previous lists (of embargoes) in order to conceal having had no choice but bow to the will of the Iranian people and accede to (the country’s) peaceful nuclear program…,” the statement read. While monitoring the implementation process of the US undertakings under the JCPOA, the Islamic Republic will respond to such propaganda campaigns and cases of harassment by pursuing its legitimate missile program more seriously and boosting its defense capabilities, it added. Iran’s missiles are not designed in any way to carry nuclear warheads and therefore the country’s missile program does not contravene any international regulations, the statement went on to say. The new financial sanctions by the US government were the first since Tehran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) reached the landmark nuclear agreement on July 14, 2015. Iran has repeatedly announced that test of missiles is an issue relating to defense of its territorial integrity and has nothing to do with the JCPOA. Iran has also underscored frequently that its military might poses no threat to other countries and that the Islamic Republic’s defense doctrine is entirely based on deterrence. http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/01/18/974737/iran-raps-new-us-sanctions-vows- to-continue-missile-program Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran Monday, January 18, 2016 Spokesman: 28 Iranians Had Charges Dropped or Released Under Swap Deal with US TEHRAN (FNA) - While earlier reports said 7 Iranians were released from prison and 14 others had their charges dropped under a swap deal with the US that also included freedom of four Americans in the weekened, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman on Monday put the total number of the Iranians privileged by the deal at 28. "An overall number of 28 Iranians were freed or were relieved of judicial restrictions within the framework of the agreement," Hossein Jaberi Ansari told reporters in his weekly press conference in Tehran on today. Yet, he said there are many court trials or cases involving Iranians in the US, and closing all of them under the deal was not possible. "We tried to include most of these cases in the framework of the recent deal, but we could strike an agreement" over just a number of them. 4 Iranian-American nationals who were held for various charges in Iran were freed under a prisoners swap deal on Saturday after the implementation of the nuclear deal clinched between Tehran and the world powers in July. A fifth inmate was also released separately. "Based on an approval of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the overall interests of the Islamic Republic, four Iranian prisoners with dual-nationality were freed today within the framework of a prisoner swap deal," the office of Tehran prosecutor said. The four Iranian-Americans, Jason Rezaian, Amir Hekmat, Saeed Abedini and Nosratollah Khosrawi Roudsari who were jailed in Iran on various charges in recent years, have all been released. Meantime, a US official said a fifth dual nationality prisoner would also be released by Iran separate from the swap deal. Later reports named this fifth prisoner as Mathew Trevithick. Reports said that according to the swap deal, the US has also freed 7 Iranian-Americans who were held for sanctions-related charges and asked the Interpol to stop prosecution of 14 other Iranian nationals. But according to what the foreign ministry spokesman said today, the number of the Iranians whose charges have been dropped stands at 21. The 7 Iranian inmates freed by the US were named as Nader Modanlou, Bahram Mechanic, Khosrow Afqahi, Arash Ghahreman, Touraj Faridi, Nima Golestaneh and Ali Sabounchi. The 14 Iranians who were mentioned in earlier reports and had charges dropped on Saturday included Saeed Jamili, Jalal Salami, Matin Sadeqi, Alireza Moazzemi Goudarzi, Mohammad Abbas Mohammadi, Kourosh Taherkhani, Sajjad Farhadi, Seyed Ahmad Abtahi, Gholamreza Mahmoudi, Hamid Arabnejad, Ali Moattar, Mohammad Ali She'rbaf, Amin Ravan and Behrouz Dolatzadeh. Jaber Ansari did not name the other 7 Iranians whose charges have been dropped. Some reports earlier this year had spoken of a potential prisoner swap between Iran and US following the Vienna nuclear deal in July. http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941028001385 Return to Top

Press TV – Tehran, Iran Iran's Response to US to Come Where it Matters: General Tuesday, January 19, 2016 A senior Iranian commander says the Islamic Republic will resolutely and relentlessly continue to upgrade its defense and missile capabilities despite hostilities, adding that Iran's response to the US will come where it matters. “Upgrading the country’s defense and missile equipment is among the Armed Forces' priorities and its process will not stop even for a moment,” Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri said on Tuesday. He added that customary diplomatic relations will by no means affect Iran’s defense power. The general emphasized that the Iranian nation and Armed Forces would increase their all-out defense preparedness to counter threats against the country. Jazayeri said the "new strategy" of the arrogant regimes, particularly the US, is based on the discourse of undermining Iran’s defense power," adding, however, that Iran's response will come "on the real battlefield." Speaking in a televised speech from the White House on Sunday, US President Barack Obama said his government will "vigorously" enforce sanctions against Iran's ballistic missile program. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/01/19/446468/Iran-US-Jazayeri-JCPOA-Emad/ Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran China to Build 2 Nuclear Power Plants in Iran: AEOI Chief January, 19, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi announced that China is going to construct a couple of nuclear power plants in southeastern Iran, and the issue will be discussed in an upcoming visit by the Chinese president to Tehran. The contract has already been signed for the construction of two nuclear power plants in cooperation with China, Salehi told reporters on Tuesday here in Tehran. This will be one of the issues that will be discussed during the upcoming visit of Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, to Tehran, which is scheduled to take place on Saturday, January 23, he added. The two 1000 MW plants will be Iran's first projects of this kind after Bushehr nuclear plant, Salehi said, adding that the plants will be built in southeastern Iranian coasts of Makran, near the port city of Chabahar with a total budget of $10 billion. Iran also plans to build other small 100 MW plants, whose contracts are at initial stages, and will be signed after final agreement with the Chinese side, the Iranian nuclear chief noted. The remarks came a couple of days after Foreign Minister Zarif and European Union’s Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini announced in a joint statement on late Saturday that the

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Leader Urges Appropriate Reaction to Any Violation of JCPOA January 20, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution on Wednesday urged Iranian officials to take reciprocal measures should the other parties to last year’s nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), US in particular, fail to fulfill their commitments. Addressing a gathering of officials responsible for holding the upcoming elections in Iran, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei called on the Iranian administration and members of the Committee for Monitoring the Implementation of JCPOA to beware of US deceits. “The other side is a deceiver, do not trust its smile and mask,” the Leader warned, stressing that the current policies and objectives of the US are the same violent anti-Iran goals followed by Washington in the past. “(Iranian) officials should make sure that the Americans do fulfill their commitments in the JCPOA implementation; otherwise, they surely should retaliate,” Imam Khamenei stressed. In similar remarks on Tuesday, the Leader underscored that care should be taken to ensure the other side of the deal fulfills its commitments completely. In a letter to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Ayatollah Khamenei reiterated his warning against deceptions and breaches of hegemonic states, US in particular, in this issue and other ones. Elsewhere in his Wednesday remarks, Supreme Leader stressed that the JCPOA did not meet all of Iran’s demands, but it was still an “important and considerable” move that brought about this much of outcomes thanks to the country’s capabilities and opportunities. The remarks came after Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and European Union’s Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini on Saturday announced in a joint statement that the implementation of the nuclear deal finalized by Tehran and world powers back in July 2015 has officially been started.

With the implementation of the agreement reached between Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany), all nuclear-related sanctions against the Islamic Republic were terminated. http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/01/20/976814/leader-urges-appropriate-reaction- to-any-violation-of-jcpoa Return to Top

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 20 January 2016 Zarif: New US sanctions over Iran Missile Program Illegal Tehran, Jan 20, IRNA – Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif on Wednesday criticized the US for its 'addiction to coercion.' Zarif, speaking Wednesday to The Associated Press in Davos, Switzerland, underlined legitimate nature of Iran's military program and said Washington's sanction against Iran missile program is illegal. 'We believe these sanctions are uncalled for. We believe the sanctions are illegal. They violate basic principles. The Iranian missile program is a legitimate defense program' and allowed under the landmark nuclear deal, he said. 'It shows that the United States has an addiction which has been very difficult for it to overcome,' Zarif said, specifying, 'Its addiction to pressure, addiction to coercion, addiction to sanctions.' The United States on Sunday imposed sanctions against 11 individuals and entities that Washington believed were involved in Iran's ballistic missile program. Zarif said, 'the United States can take steps to overcome this mistrust,' he said, such as through implementation of the nuclear agreement. AP wrote that Zarif spoke in a hotel room at the glamorous Intercontinental hotel, where U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was also holding meetings. The minister said they had no plans to meet. Asked about conservative voices within Iran, he said: 'Iran is not a monolith, I think Americans would recognize that ... just like the United States is not. So you have a difference of views among various political actors, among various parts of the population.' He spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos before taking part in a debate focusing on the Islamic Republic. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81929159/ Return to Top

Deccan Herald – Bengaluru, India Kerry Warns Saudi Arabia of Consequences if They Get Nukes Press Trust of India (PTI) January 20, 2016 Washington -- US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan against indulging in trade of nuclear weapons, saying there will be "all kinds of NPT consequences" if Riyadh went ahead with any such plan. Such a strong warning from Kerry comes amidst media reports that Saudi Arabia is trying to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Top Pakistani leaders have in recent weeks warned Iran of serious consequences if it attacked Saudi Arabia, which many analysts see a nuclear threat from Islamabad to Tehran.

"Sure we've heard those things. But you can't just buy a bomb and transfer (a nuclear bomb)," Kerry told CNN. "There's all kinds of NPT consequences. I mean, there are huge implications of that," Kerry said, referring to the strong nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He was asked, "The Saudis (are) not even ruling out the possibility, given their concern about this nuclear deal with Iran, they could go forward and buy some — maybe buy a nuclear bomb, maybe from Pakistan, you’ve heard those concerns." Pakistan is already under the radar of the international community for its previous nuclear proliferation activities and leaking the nuclear weapons technology to countries like Iran, Libya and North Korea. "Saudi Arabia knows, I believe, that that is not going to make them safer, nor is it going to be easy because the very things that Iran went through, they would then be subject to with respect to inspection, NPT and so forth," Kerry said. http://www.deccanherald.com/content/524094/kerry-warns-saudi-arabia-consequences.html Return to Top

Al Arabiya – Dubai, U.A.E. GCC Working on Joint Missile Defense: Bahrain Reuters Thursday, 21 January 2016 Manama -- Gulf Arab states are cooperating on regional missile defense and hope to announce the results soon, a Bahraini officer said on Wednesday, suggesting progress in long-stalled efforts to create a cross-border approach to counter Iran's growing missile capabilities. U.S. and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) officials say the time has come to push ahead as Arab nations start to mount more joint military missions. Gulf Arab countries also worry that the lifting of sanctions against Iran, their long time adversary, could revive Iran's economy and enable it to acquire more accurate and reliable missiles. Hamad Al Khalifah, commander of the Royal Bahraini Air Force, said on the sidelines of an air force conference that a GCC committee was working in a cooperative effort to build joint missile defense. "We have started, and hopefully it (the result) will be announced soon," he said in answer to questions, without elaborating. Iran conducted a precision-guided ballistic missile test capable of delivering a nuclear warhead violating a United Nations ban last October. U.S. President Barack Obama said the test was a violation of Iran's "international obligations" and a result Washington imposed sanctions on 11 companies and individuals for supplying Iran's ballistic missile program. Obama and GCC countries underscored a commitment to build the defense system at a summit in May 2015, as Washington moved to assuage Gulf allies' concerns about a more powerful Iran.

Press TV – Tehran, Iran Iran Was Moving towards Producing Nukes, Kerry Claims Friday, January 22, 2016 US Secretary of State John Kerry has once again accused Iran of moving towards producing nuclear weapons before Tehran reached a nuclear deal with P5+1 group of countries. Kerry said on Thursday because of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), all pathways for Iran to make nuclear bombs are blocked. "Iran was hurtling towards an unaccounted for, uninspected, full-fledged nuclear program with high levels of enrichment where they had enough enriched material to make 10 to 12 bombs," Kerry told CNBC's "Squawk Box" at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "Now, frankly, at Iran's consent and agreement, they have rolled that back." Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China – plus Germany (P5+1), finalized the JCPOA in Vienna, on July 14, 2015. Under the JCPOA, limits are put on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the removal of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The top US diplomat described Tehran’s nuclear program before the implementation of the deal a source of danger in the Middle East. Iran “was moving towards a nuclear weapon, and moving at a rate that was extremely disturbing," he said. Kerry however noted that the issue could only be resolved through diplomacy. "President [Barack] Obama decided the first way to deal with it, before you start dropping bombs or going to war, is to see if you can find a diplomatic solution." Iran has frequently said its nuclear energy program has been purely peaceful and has rejected Western claims that it was pursuing nuclear weapons. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/01/22/446869/Davos-CNBC/ Return to Top

Trend News Agency – Baku, Azerbaijan US to Continue Using Sanctions against Iran, Says Kerry 22 January 2016 US Secretary of State John Kerry has rejected Iran’s criticism of new sanctions against the country, saying Washington is determined to impose more sanctions against Tehran when “appropriate", Press TV reported. "We have made it very clear that we use sanctions when we think they are appropriate in order to counter behavior that we believe has broken the law or has challenged the United Nations Security Council or threatened the United States and we stand by our sanctions," Kerry told reporters on the sideline of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The top US diplomat further claimed that the sanctions against Iran and other nations have been “used judiciously and effectively.” Kerry made the remarks in response to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who blasted the US government for imposing new sanctions over Tehran’s ballistic missile program, denouncing the move as an “addiction to coercion.” http://en.trend.az/iran/politics/2483783.html Return to Top

The Nation – Lahore, Pakistan Ra’ad Missile Test-Launched January 20, 2016 Islamabad - Pakistan yesterday conducted a successful flight test of the indigenously developed air launched cruise missile (ALCM) “Ra’ad”, said an ISPR press statement. The ISPR said that the Ra’ad ALCM, with a range of 350 km, enables Pakistan to achieve air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea. The state of the art Ra’ad ALCM is equipped with highly advanced guidance and navigation system that ensures engagement of targets with pinpoint accuracy. The terrain hugging low level flight manoeuvres enable it to avoid detection and engagement by contemporary air defence systems. The president and the prime minister congratulated the scientists and engineers for their outstanding achievement on the conduct of a successful flight test of “Ra’ad”. Director General Strategic Plans Division Lieutenant General Mazhar Jamil congratulated the scientists and engineers on achieving yet another milestone of historic significance. He termed it a major step towards complementing Pakistan’s deterrence capability. Achievement of this milestone will surely enhance strategic stability and contribute to peace in the region.

The Times of India – Mumbai, India Around 130 Pak Nuclear Warheads Aimed at Deterring India: US Govt Report Press Trust of India (PTI) January 21, 2016 WASHINGTON: Pakistan's nuclear warheads which are estimated to be between 110-130 are aimed at deterring India from taking military action against it, a latest Congressional report has said. The report also expressed concern that Islamabad's "full spectrum deterrence" doctrine has increased risk of nuclear conflict between the two South Asian neighbours. "Pakistan's nuclear arsenal probably consists of approximately 110-130 nuclear warheads, although it could have more. Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, deploying additional nuclear weapons, and new types of delivery vehicles," Congressional Research Service (CRS) said in its latest report. In its 28-page report, the CRS noted that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking military action against it, but Islamabad's expansion of its nuclear arsenal, development of new types of nuclear weapons and adoption of a doctrine called "full spectrum deterrence" have led some observers to express concern about an increased risk of nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India, which also continues to expand its nuclear arsenal. CRS is the independent research wing of the US Congress, which prepares periodic reports by eminent experts on a wide range of issues so as to help lawmakers take informed decisions. Reports of CRS are not considered as an official view of the US Congress. "Pakistan has in recent years taken a number of steps to increase international confidence in the security of its nuclear arsenal," said the CRS report authored by Paul K Kerr and Mary Beth Nikitin. Moreover, Pakistani and US officials argue that, since the 2004 revelations about a procurement network run by former Pakistani nuclear official A Q Khan, Islamabad has taken a number of steps to improve its nuclear security and to prevent further proliferation of nuclear-related technologies and materials, it said. A number of important initiatives, such as strengthened export control laws, improved personnel security, and international nuclear security cooperation programmes, have improved Pakistan's nuclear security, the CRS said. "However, instability in Pakistan has called the extent and durability of these reforms into question. Some observers fear radical takeover of the Pakistani government or diversion of material or technology by personnel within Pakistan's nuclear complex," the CRS said. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Around-130-Pak-nuclear-warheads-aimed-at-deterring- India-US-govt-report/articleshow/50664202.cms Return to Top Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. OPINION/The Buzz Why the World Should Fear North Korea's Biological Weapons By Harry J. Kazianis January 18, 2016 While the world might be worried about all things North Korea—especially its growing nuclear weapons arsenal—Pyongyang very likely has other nasty weapons of mass destruction that, given the right conditions, could be just as lethal. What most refer to as biological weapons—stuff right out central casting that always make those ‘end of the world’ movies all so good—might just be North Korea’s real weapon of war to fear. While they certainly don’t get as much attention as atomic bombs or chemical weapons such as Sarin, biological weapons can kill hundreds of thousands of people, and maybe even millions if deployed over a wide enough area. While exact facts and figures aren’t perfect, there is strong evidence to suggest Pyongyang could possess anthrax weapons as well as possibly cholera, plague and even smallpox. And now that North Korea’s missile arsenal is becoming ever more sophisticated by the day . . . well, you get the idea. But developing such deadly agents in a controlled lab and deploying them in a war are totally different ball games. To give one a guide on how this could work, a recent report by the RAND corporation lays out the frightening details. And as you will see very quickly, it would not take much to kill thousands and spread mass panic: “The Republic of Korea Ministry of Defense asserts that “[t]he North may also dare to launch a secret attack in the rear through its SOF [special operations forces] troops armed with biological weapons.” Even a kilogram of many types of biological weapons could disrupt most military targets if delivered properly, and this quantity could easily be delivered by special operations forces. Missiles and aircraft could also deliver this quantity of biological weapons. “Indeed, North Korea special forces are a likely means for delivering North Korean biological weapons. North Korea has some 200,000 special forces, a small fraction of which could deliver devastating biological attacks against South Korea, Japan, and even the United States. North Korea could use biological agents in isolation, perhaps as an escalated provocation in which it seeks to infect a limited number of people, or it could use biological agents as the leading edge of an invasion of the ROK, hoping for thousands or even more infections to weaken the ROK’s defenses and will to fight. Biological weapon use in the latter context is particularly worrisome.” From there, things could go from bad to worse: “North Korea could use biological weapons against a variety of military and civilian targets in South Korea. Biological weapons would likely be delivered as an aerosol of some kind that would be dispersed and then carried by the wind. Many people downwind of the release location would be exposed unless they wore some form of protection or were physically located in a place that protected them from exposure. This is particularly true if the attacker creates a line source by spraying, for example, the BW agent while driving along a road perpendicular to the wind. According to one source, 1 kilogram of anthrax could spread lethal effects over 0.2 to 2.6 square

The Hill – Washington, D.C. OPINION/Congress Blog North Korean H-Bomb? Not Yet, but Time is Not on Our Side By Philip Coyle, Lt. Gen. Robert Gard (ret.) and Greg Terryn January 18, 2016 The world is alarmed by North Korea’s fourth test of a nuclear weapon, its first since February 2013. The detonation, which North Korea claims was a successful hydrogen bomb, is opposed with contempt by the international community including China, the Hermit Kingdom’s closest ally. This test demonstrates North Korea’s investment in improving its nuclear arsenal; the status quo of severe sanctions and tough talk has done little to deter this effort. Did North Korea successfully test a hydrogen bomb? Not likely. The estimated yield and seismic magnitude are too low, somewhat smaller than the 2013 test, a blast too small to be an H-bomb. A successful two-stage hydrogen bomb, which uses atomic fission to trigger a larger nuclear fusion reaction, can be between several hundred and several thousand times more powerful than the test North Korea conducted. This does not mean North Korea’s test is insignificant. Every test advances its nuclear weapons program. Also, North Korea likely made progress in reducing the size of its warhead to fit on a missile, solving a key challenge of building a deliverable weapon. It is difficult to define the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, since little is known about the operational capacity of its nuclear weapons or its capability to deliver those weapons accurately and reliably. Though specifics on its arsenal are unknown, some speculate North Korea has the nuclear material for as many as 16 nuclear weapons. North Korea has yet to test an intercontinental range missile that could hit the U.S. Nor has North Korea demonstrated its ability to build an effective reentry vehicle or shrink a nuclear weapon to fit on a delivery system.

While the size of its arsenal is shrouded in uncertainty, it is apparent that North Korea is hell-bent on expanding its nuclear force, regardless of the economic and political costs. North Korea is restricted from conducting nuclear weapons tests by several UN resolutions, and each of its previous tests has yielded a new round of international sanctions. In response, the United States is already preparing new sanctions and the international community has widely condemned the latest test. But past such efforts have been futile; sanctions and harsh rhetoric have done little to influence North Korea’s calculus. Instead North Korea continues its march towards more powerful and dangerous weapons, and each step makes the prospect of denuclearization more challenging. This is not a problem that can be ignored; time is not on our side. Experts felt similarly about Iran’s nuclear program, until negotiations between the United States and its negotiating partners produced a plan to halt Iran’s progress and roll back its nuclear infrastructure. As part of this agreement, Iran recently shipped nearly all of its enriched uranium to Russia, and is destroying two-thirds of its centrifuges to enrich uranium for weapons, thereby blocking Tehran’s pathways to a nuclear weapon for at least 15 years. A similar approach should be applied to the North Korea case, and the framework is already there. China has called for a restart of the Six-Party Talks between the Koreas, United States, China, Russia, and Japan, which have remained dormant since 2008. But for the new talks to bear fruit, two key things must occur. First, China must stop protecting North Korea. The talks will not be effective if China utilizes its veto authority in the United Nations to insulate its ally. A stable non- nuclear North Korea is in China’s interest. This should motivate China to insist on an end to this destabilizing nuclear build up. With China’s support in applying additional sanctions and pressures on North Korea’s leadership, the pariah state could be pushed back to the negotiating table. Second, the United States must eliminate its preconditions for restarting the talks. Currently, the United States demands that North Korea accept that the ultimate objective of the talks is denuclearization, before talks may resume. This precondition has smothered negotiations and prevented a restart. Instead, the United States should agree to engage diplomatically now, while there is strong international opposition to North Korea. To remove this precondition, the United States does not forfeit the ultimate goal of denuclearization and it does not reward bad North Korean behavior. The United States does not and should not accept North Korea as a nuclear- weapon state. Instead, removing this precondition eliminates the unnecessary barrier to diplomatic engagement and shifts pressure onto North Korea to rejoin the talks. Previous attempts to denuclearize North Korea have failed, including a bilateral agreement between the United States and North Korea that collapsed in 2003 after both sides reneged on their commitments. An earlier iteration of the Six Party Talks achieved a major breakthrough in 2005 when North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear program. These talks broke down, however, over verification specifics and a North Korean missile test. Regardless of past failures, the international community must address North Korea’s nuclear program now, before it develops nuclear capabilities that no diplomatic engagement can disarm. Multilateral talks that feature a committed China and obstacle-free terms for reinstating the negotiations offer the best chance to roll back North Korea’s program and prevent Pyongyang from conducting future tests, or worse.

The Diplomat – Tokyo, Japan OPINION/The Debate North Korea’s Latest Nuclear Test: Probably Not for Deterrence Pyongyang’s motivations might have had more to do with prestige and international bargaining leverage. By Nah Liang Tuang for The Diplomat January 19, 2016 Early this month, North Korea detonated a fourth nuclear device near its Punggye-ri nuclear facility. In the immediate wake of the test, interest focused on Pyongyang’s claims that the device was a thermonuclear explosive or hydrogen bomb (which is far more powerful than Pyongyang’s first three tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 which were non-thermonuclear). However, an important question that was overlooked is why the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is conducting nuclear tests, rather than what kind of devices were tested. What Drives Pyongyang’s Nuclear Exhibitionism? Shortly after North Korea detonated a nuclear device at 10 a.m. local time on January 6, 2016, the DPRK’s state media proclaimed that the device was a hydrogen bomb, and that such devices served as defenses against external enemies. Even as we should not discount the Kim regime’s siege mentality and Pyongyang’s corresponding obsession with national security and deterrence, of which the North Korean nuclear weapons program is a key component, it could be argued that the defensive justification for periodic testing serves as a thin legitimizing veneer for what are essentially domestic and negotiative drivers for nuclear demonstrations. Considering that neither the U.S. nor South Korea have made incursions into North Korea since the 1950-1953 Korean War, that much of the DPRK’s military forces are deployed near the demilitarized zone at the border separating the two Koreas, and that South Korea’s capital, Seoul is within range of a massive array of North Korean artillery, it is apparent that Pyongyang already has a sufficient conventional deterrence against any possibility of hostility from the U.S.-South Korean alliance. With this in mind, the former’s nuclear weapons look like overkill and hint at the existence of other driving motivations supporting its nuclear arms development. Looking back at the 2009 nuclear test, it has been retrospectively argued by Evans Revere, writing in American Foreign Policy Interests, that the Kim regime’s second test was carried out to buttress nationalistic sentiment and pride around Pyongyang in the wake of the late Kim Jong-il’s debilitating stroke in the summer of 2008. As the then leader-in-waiting, Kim Jong-un lacked leadership experience, such a display of technical achievement provided a stable moral platform for Jong-un to assume leadership. Additionally, the subsequent opposition to the blast from the U.S. and UN allowed Kim to re-direct the domestic focus away from the DPRK’s economic malaise towards foreign enemies, providing a leadership objective for his anointed son, Jong-un. Hence, the display Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal of domestic atomic achievement was and is intended to refresh local perceptions of North Korea’s national and military power, strongly suggesting that North Korea will progress under Kim Jong-un. Thereafter, the third and fourth nuclear devices tested in 2013 and January 2016 respectively can also be seen as technological signals reinforcing North Korean self-esteem while shoring up Kim Jong-un’s credibility as apex leader. These tests might even be more significant for him, given that after his father, Jong-il died on December 17, 2011 he has had to show both common North Koreans, as well as Pyongyang’s elite, that he is his own man and not ruling in the shadow of his predecessor. Concerning the DPRK’s nuclear aggrandizement as a tool to enhance negotiative efficacy with the U.S., Pyongyang’s past behavior serves as a useful guide. Consider: - First, in 1994 Jong-un’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung threatened to process plutonium from spent nuclear reactor fuel rods, which was rewarded by the Agreed Framework signed by Washington in which North Korea would receive fuel aid and nuclear proliferation resistant light water nuclear reactors, among other benefits. - Next, after the first nuclear test in 2006, the Kim regime then led by Jong-il negotiated a deal with the U.S. in which the DPRK received fuel aid and a delisting from Washington’s list of states sponsoring terrorism in exchange for freezing its plutonium based nuclear programme and significant transparency regarding nuclear activities. - Following Pyongyang’s second nuclear test in 2009, and after extensive negotiations, the Kim regime under Jong-un agreed to suspend all nuclear and missile tests along with uranium enrichment in return for 240,000 tons of food aid from the U.S. As such, there exists considerable analysis pointing to domestically driven and negotiation-based reasons supporting North Korea’s nuclear munitions development. The International Response By now, even the most dewy-eyed proponent of eventual North Korean negotiated nuclear disarmament should realize that it is not going to happen anytime soon. However, since appeasement of the DPRK by offering it carrots in change for denuclearization progress has not worked, and weak United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions hobbled by Russian and Chinese hesitation have also not been effective, how should the U.S. and concerned regional states respond? As it has been established that nuclear weapons are a tool to substantiate the leadership credentials, legitimacy, moral authority, and prestige of successive generations of Kims to North Korean citizens and elites, it would be fair to say that nuclear testing and demonstrations of related technology like long-range missiles have an innate value to Pyongyang. Consequently, like trying to convince a hardcore chain smoker to give up cigarettes, efforts to coax, cajole, bribe or coerce the Kim regime are going to be fiercely resisted. Nonetheless, Washington and its regional partners need not sit on their collective hands and do nothing. Even as the UNSC ponders what punitive action to take, the region can work on convincing the DPRK’s leadership that nuclear and even rocket antics can no longer work as a coercive tool to seize international attention and bargain for aid in return for non-substantive denuclearization progress. Drawing an analogy to a spoiled child throwing a tantrum who is willing to quieten down after his parents offer him or her a desired toy or treat, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo should clearly communicate both in words and in deed to Pyongyang that its outbursts will not be rewarded in Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama any shape or form, not even with tentative low-level contacts or negotiations. Notwithstanding the links that the Kim dynasty has made, joining nuclear aggrandizement to national pride, the U.S. and its allies could irrevocably “divorce” the North’s nuclear weapons from its partial role as benefits “harvester.” Once Pyongyang realizes this cold fact, there would be lessened utility in nuclear and even missile testing. Lastly, despite the hermit kingdom’s Juche rhetoric championing self-reliant autarky, no nation can truly survive utter isolation. By removing Kim Jong-un’s ability to blackmail the U.S., South Korea and Japan into inadvertently sustaining his regime’s survival, the DPRK would be driven into a state of isolation that not even his father and grandfather have experienced. Once it dawns upon Kim that his sole international patron, the People’s Republic of China has well and truly lost patience with him and his regime (Kim has snubbed Chinese President Xi Jinping by not meeting the latter, even as South Korean President Park Geun-hye of South Korea has met Xi several times), and is prepared to tighten the diplomatic and economic thumbscrews on Pyongyang, perhaps he will see reason and lead the North more responsibly. Nah Liang Tuang is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/north-koreas-latest-nuclear-test-probably-not-for-deterrence/ Return to Top

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. OPINION/Feature The Chinese Plans to Nuke America A recent publication details the fallout from a strike on the United States. By Lyle J. Goldstein January 19, 2016 When one reads enough Chinese naval literature, diagrams of multi-axial cruise missile saturation attacks against aircraft carrier groups may begin to seem normal. However, one particular graphic from the October 2015 issue (p. 32) of the naval journal Naval & Merchant Ships [舰船知识] stands out as both unusual and singularly disturbing. It purports to map the impact of a Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strike by twenty nuclear-armed rockets against the United States. Targets include the biggest cities on the East and West Coasts, as well as in the Midwest, as one would expect. Giant radiation plumes cover much of the country and the estimate in the caption holds that the strike “would yield perhaps 50 million people killed” [可能造成5000 万死亡]. The map below that graphic on the same page illustrates the optimal aim point for a hit on New York City with a “blast wave” [火风量] that vaporizes all of Manhattan and well beyond. That makes the North Korean “threat” look fairly insignificant by comparison, doesn’t it? But what’s really disturbing is that the scenario described above envisions a strike by China’s largely antiquated DF-5 first generation ICBM. In other words, the illustration is perhaps a decade or more out of date. As China has deployed first the road-mobile DF-31, then DF-31A and now JL-2 (a submarine-launched nuclear weapon), China’s nuclear strategy has moved from “assured retaliation” to what one may term “completely assured retaliation.” Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

Indeed, the actual theme of the article featuring those graphics concerns recent reports regarding testing of the DF-41 mobile ICBM. The author of that article, who is careful to note that his views do not represent those of the publication, observes that when a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson was queried about the test on August 6, 2015, the spokesperson “did not deny that the DF-41 exists” [并没有否认‘东风’41 的存在]. The author also cites U.S. intelligence reports, concluding that four tests have now been conducted, including one that demonstrates multiple- reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology. The author estimates that DF-41 will finally provide China with the capability to launch missiles from north central China and hit all targets in the U.S. (except Florida). With the goal of better understanding the rapidly evolving strategic nuclear balance between China and the U.S. and its significance, this Dragon Eye surveys some recent Mandarin- language writings on the subject of Chinese nuclear forces. To be sure, a flurry of Chinese writings on the nuclear balance did follow after the September parade in Beijing that highlighted Chinese missile forces. Perhaps the most remarkable revelation from the parade was the unveiling of the DF-26, a new, longer-range anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), based on the revolutionary shorter-ranged cousin, the DF-21D ASBM. In fact, the November 2015 issue of the aforementioned journal ran a series of articles on the DF-26. In those articles, the weapon is described multiple times as a “nuclear conventional dual-purpose” [核常兼备] weapon. The major thrust of the article in that issue on the impact of the DF-26 on nuclear strategy seems to be to try to debunk the argument that China’s deployment of this new type of missile is “destabilizing.” Like their American counterparts, Chinese strategists seem to be increasingly practiced (at least in a domestic context) at selling the argument that more and new types of weapons enhance deterrence and thus strategic stability. Despite the developments related above, the balance of opinion in Beijing seems impressively moderate on the prospects for a major nuclear buildup by China. In the allegedly nationalist forum of Global Times [环球时报], one commentator from the China Institute for International Studies (associated with the Foreign Ministry), for example, offered a few illuminating comments about a year ago in an expert forum entitled “How Many Nuclear Warheads Are Enough for China?” He is evidently concerned that “We have heard some new voices calling to ‘build a nuclear force appropriate for a great power.’” Instead, he argues that China must continue to focus on building a “small, elite and effective nuclear forces” [精干有效的核力量]. Likewise, a former vice-director of the Chinese Navy Nuclear Security Bureau offers that China is a medium-sized nuclear power, which should learn from the experience of Britain and France and deploy no fewer than four submarines carrying nuclear weapons (SSBNs)—far fewer than operated by either Russia or the United States. Yet one can still find in that same analysis ample concern among Chinese specialists regarding new directions in U.S. military capabilities that could threaten China’s deterrent. Another concern amply evident in Chinese writings concerns tactical nuclear weaponry. Most of this reporting of late concerns a recent upgrade to the American B-61 nuclear bomb. A full-page graphic in the same issue that discusses the DF-41 missile tests offers many specifics on the B-61, including its “dial-a- yield” [威力可调技术] feature that enables the operator to choose destruction on a scale ranging from fifty to 0.3 kilotons. That same month, in the magazine Aerospace Knowledge [航空知识], a “centerfold” featured the SS-26 Iskander, a Russian short-range tactical nuclear weapon. Elsewhere, I have, moreover, documented Chinese discussions of tactical nuclear weapons for anti-submarine warfare, as well as the importance of nuclear-tipped submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCMs)

ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation . The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards.

The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.

Issue No.1199, 22 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538