Middle Powers Initiative Briefing Paper Creating the Conditions and Building the Framework for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World Fe

Middle Powers Initiative Brieﬁng Paper

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Creating the Conditions and Building the Framework for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World

Brieﬁng Paper for the Berlin Framework Forum

February 21-22, 2013 THE MIDDLE POWERS INITIATIVE

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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Creating the Conditions and Building the Framework for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World

Middle Powers Initiative Brieﬁng Paper February 2013

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 4

I. Creating the Conditions for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World 9

A. Views of Governments 9 B. Assessment 12 C. Progress toward Meeting the Criteria for an Achievable and Sustainable Nuclear Weapons-Free World 15 D. Strategic Security 19 E. Cooperative and Common Security 23

II. Building the Framework for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World 25 A. Process and Strategy 25 B. Choices Regarding the Architecture of a Nuclear Weapons-Free World 28 1. Legal Instruments 28 2. Institutions 29

Conclusion 30

Page 3 Executive Summary

The 2010 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference declared that “all states need to make special efforts to establish the necessary framework to achieve and maintain a world without nuclear weapons.” The Framework Forum convened by the Middle Powers Initiative (MPI) focuses on implementation of that declaration. It builds on MPI’s successful series of six meetings of the Article VI Forum, which contributed to the deliberations at the 2010 NPT Review Conference on a comprehensive agenda for nuclear disarmament. Since its formation in 1998, MPI, a coalition of eight leading international civil society organizations specializing in nuclear disarmament issues, has worked closely with about 30 key middle power countries. This Brieﬁng Paper for the Berlin meeting of the Framework Forum considers ﬁrst the question of conditions for a nuclear weapons-free world, and second issues of strategy and process as well as design relating to building the framework of such a world.

Creating the Conditions for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World

In Resolution 1887 of 2009, the United Nations Security Council resolved “to create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons.” This raises the crucial question: what, if any, conditions need to be created?

Views of governments range from an affirmation that conditions already exist, to emphasis on implementation of measures on the NPT agenda, to identification of political prerequisites such as resolution of regional tensions and enhancement of collective security mechanisms. The views are divided in two major ways. One is that some view conditions as nuclear weapons- related measures like the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a fissile materials treaty, US-Russian reductions, and Additional Protocol that must be put in effect prior to embarking upon elimination. Others reject the notion of conditions of any kind and maintain that a comprehensive approach to elimination can be undertaken now. A second is that the Permanent Five hold that general conditions of security must prevail prior to elimination. In this vein Russia and China further insist upon restraints or bans on missile defences, non- nuclear strike and space-based systems, and other military capabilities.

The step-by-step approach conveys that the cautious and prudent negotiation and implementation of measures can build confidence and engage states over time in a verified and irreversible nuclear disarmament process. However, it underestimates the risks of ongoing reliance on nuclear weapons and the pressures for proliferation arising from that reliance. Moreover, the approach has been in play for half a century now, yet the basic problem of reliance on nuclear weapons still bedevils the world. At present, the approach is encountering serious difficulties.

In the view of the Middle Powers Initiative, a comprehensive approach to nuclear disarmament, involving at least a preparatory process, should therefore be pursued in parallel with work on measures now on the agenda and would stimulate and reinforce progress on those measures. Prevention of the further spread of nuclear weapons would be strengthened by a comprehensive approach. In broad terms, there is a favorable global environment. The world is experiencing a period of relative cooperation among the major military powers coupled with increasing

Page 4 assertion of a role in global governance by countries of the South and the Non-Aligned Movement, as well as by Northern middle powers. Moreover, the demands of global conscience are increasingly being heard; there is a growing unwillingness to tolerate some states’ reliance on weapons whose use is palpably inhumane and also contrary to law governing the conduct of warfare.

Regarding the contention that nuclear disarmament is possible only in conditions of general security, such conditions are better viewed as facilitative rather than as absolute, and are considered further below under headings of strategic security, and cooperative and common security. They are to be distinguished from the criteria for an achievable and sustainable nuclear weapons-free world: veriﬁcation, irreversibility, transparency, universality, bindingness in law, and effective governance. The criteria need to be met not only in future agreements; progress toward fulﬁlling them is taking place or can take place now.

Verification: Many tools exist for effective monitoring and verification, especially with respect to declared warheads, delivery systems, fissile materials and related facilities, and nuclear testing. It remains the case, however, that achieving confidence that arsenals have been reduced and eliminated and a true regime of zero established will be challenging, principally due to the possibility of hidden warheads, stocks of fissile materials, or capabilities. One implication is that transparency measures need to be implemented beginning now.

Irreversibility: The aim is to make arms control measures, and the elimination of nuclear weapons, not sham but effective, so that items subject to arms control and disarmament cannot be employed for rearmament. The principle of irreversibility has been applied to disposal of fissile materials from dismantled warheads, and to delivery systems, which have been verifiably destroyed under US-Soviet/Russian agreements. It has yet to be applied in a verified manner to the dismantlement of warheads. Modernization of nuclear weapons infrastructures for the purpose, declared or unspoken, of making a build-up of nuclear forces possible, circumvents the principle of irreversibility, and strengthens the institutional drivers of continued reliance on nuclear weapons. Also, there is no such thing, in technological terms, as an absolutely irreversible state of zero. The degree of difficulty of regenerating or creating nuclear arsenals will depend greatly, not only on any residual nuclear weapons infrastructure, but also on a country’s civilian nuclear power infrastructure, in particular nationally controlled, or controllable, uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing facilities.

Transparency: There is a long way to go to achieve transparency regarding warheads, ﬁssile materials, and delivery systems. A new process that may help remedy this lack is Permanent Five consultations on transparency and other issues at which the P5 have considered proposals for a standard NPT reporting format. Commendably, the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative group of governments has developed a draft standard nuclear disarmament reporting form and provided it to the NPT nuclear weapon states.

Universality and bindingness in law: The number of states with binding Additional Protocol agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) amplifying NPT-mandated safeguards obligations has climbed to 119 as of October 2012; however, a number of major countries have not brought such agreements into force. One hundred and ﬁfty-eight states have ratiﬁed the CTBT, but it is presently rather far from entering into force due to the eight

Page 5 hold-out Annex 2 states. While there is nearly universal adherence to the NPT, the few non- member states possess nuclear arsenals, posing the problem of universality in stark terms. The participation of India and Pakistan in the non-proliferation/disarmament regime will have to come through other means, in particular treaties in which the same basic obligations apply to all states. The participation of the DPRK and Israel in the NPT depends on the success of regional processes.

Effective governance: Over the decades and with respect to the vast majority of the world’s countries, there is a good record of compliance with the NPT and safeguards agreements and of cooperation with the IAEA. Nonetheless, the IAEA and the Security Council have proved unable so far to induce or compel compliance with non-proliferation norms in several cases. The poor performance with respect to those cases not only fails to address present-day problems of proliferation or potential proliferation, it also engenders skepticism about prospects for moving to a regime of zero in which compliance can be monitored, induced, and enforced as necessary. One possible way to improve the response to proliferation situations would be for NPT states parties to create mechanisms for collective deliberation and action.

Strategic security: If ‘strategic stability’ means the preservation of ‘nuclear deterrence’ as practiced since World War II unless and until the weapons are eliminated globally, it is completely unacceptable. Nuclear weapons can be marginalized as instruments of national policy even when still possessed, by changes in doctrines, deployments, alert status, and numbers. It is true that strategic capabilities, nuclear and non-nuclear, must be managed effectively in a disarmament process. Constraints on missiles defenses, space-based systems, and non- nuclear strike systems will facilitate, and be stimulated by, nuclear disarmament. Currently, development and deployment of missile defenses and other strategic systems, in combination with ongoing Russian concerns about NATO expansion and US and NATO operations and activities in the Middle East and on Russia’s periphery, are undermining prospects for further US-Russian nuclear arms reductions. From the US and NATO side, the question must be asked, are the supposed beneﬁts of deploying missile defenses, developing non-nuclear strike systems, and preserving options for space-based systems worth the cost to prospects for nuclear disarmament?

Cooperative and common security: The concepts of common security and cooperative security build upon the key insight, arising out of the dilemmas of ‘nuclear deterrence,’ that a state’s security, no matter what means of defense it has at its disposal, can depend crucially upon the security of an adversary. Nuclear disarmament is supported by an approach to security based not on a balance of power calculus but rather on recognition of the necessity of common security, embrace of the non-aggression norm, compliance with international humanitarian law and disarmament obligations, reliance on methods of conﬂict prevention and dispute resolution, and strengthening of the international rule of law and its foundational institutions, including the United Nations, International Court of Justice, and International Criminal Court. Both regionally and globally it is desirable to reinforce or build means of providing security alternative to that putatively or actually provided by reliance on nuclear weapons. One such means is the creation of new nuclear weapons-free zones, especially in Northeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Arctic. Regional preventive diplomacy, like that practiced during the Cold War in the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, is important, for the sake of peace and security generally and to facilitate regional and global disarmament.

Page 6 Building the Framework for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World

Process and strategy: MPI’s view is that the time has come to create a process expressly devoted to establishment of a nuclear weapons-free world, a process that could at least undertake preparatory work. Absent the current support of states possessing nuclear weapons, middle power countries have several options. The launching of a process leading to negotiations on complete nuclear disarmament could be an objective at the 2015 NPT Review Conference, a setting in which non-nuclear weapon states have signiﬁcant bargaining power.

It is always within the power of the General Assembly to establish a process leading to multilateral negotiations on nuclear disarmament. In 2012, the General Assembly took at least an initial step towards exercising its power by adopting a resolution, sponsored by Austria, Mexico, and Norway, establishing “an open-ended working group to develop proposals to take forward multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations for the achievement and maintenance of a world without nuclear weapons.” The working group can make decisions by vote, and could initiate, probably subject to further General Assembly decision, a process of negotiation or deliberation freed from the rigid rule of unanimity followed by the Conference on Disarmament.

The General Assembly also decided, by a resolution sponsored by Indonesia, to convene a high-level meeting as a plenary session of the Assembly, on 26 September 2013, to contribute to achieving the goal of nuclear disarmament. That meeting will present an opportunity for raising the proﬁle of the disarmament enterprise and possibly for launching a new process, an opportunity that should be seized by middle powers as well as by parliamentarians, mayors, and civil society groups.

Middle power countries can also engage in independent courses of action without the immediate support or participation of nuclear possessor states. The regional nuclear-weapon-free zones can deepen coordination among the zones and undertake joint political action. Middle powers can undertake studies and deliberations on the architecture of a nuclear weapons-free world. They can encourage national adoption of measures of non-cooperation with nuclear weapons, such as a policy of divestment in producers of warheads and associated delivery systems; a ban on nationals’ participation in manufacture of warheads and delivery systems; and an obligation to prosecute persons connected to the use of nuclear weapons. They could also support Mexico’s proposal to amend the Rome Statute to make use of nuclear weapons an express war crime. More ambitiously, middle powers could initiate negotiations outside the UN and NPT contexts on a treaty categorically banning use and possession of nuclear weapons.

The underlying problem is one of political will. However challenging it may be to create a process expressly devoted to establishment of a nuclear weapons-free world, such a process is far, far more capable than the step-by-step approach of attracting and engaging global public opinion – a crucial dimension to successful disarmament.

Choices Regarding the Architecture of a Nuclear Weapons-Free World: Three forms of the legal framework for a nuclear weapons-free world deserve examination: 1) a Nuclear Weapons Convention; 2) a framework agreement on nuclear disarmament; and 3) a framework of instruments. A convention would likely incorporate or link to existing instruments. A framework

Page 7 agreement could set forth the obligation of non-use of nuclear weapons and a schedule for their elimination, and provide for further negotiations on matters such as verification, enforcement, and control and disposition of fissile materials. A framework of instruments would tie together agreements and institutions that now exist as well as ones to be created. It has an affinity with the step-by-step approach and does not necessarily imply reliance on a global multilateral agreement.

Another set of choices concerns the institutions needed for governance of a nuclear weapons- free world. There are a range of tasks that will need to be undertaken by the institutions, among them monitoring and verification; conflict prevention, dispute resolution, and crisis management; compliance inducement and enforcement; disarmament education to ensure public and political commitment over time; and assistance to states with implementation. One question is whether a nuclear disarmament verification body needs to be created and, if so, the nature of its relationship to existing agencies and arrangements.

Regarding dispute resolution and compliance inducement and enforcement, a nuclear disarmament agency and its governing body could employ a number of techniques, including mediation, referral to the International Court of Justice, withdrawal of privileges and assistance, and the imposition of economic sanctions. More robust means of conﬂict prevention and peaceful crisis management need to be developed. As to the possible use of force to compel compliance, the Security Council is usually put forward as the appropriate body for considering and authorizing such action. However, the Security Council may need to be reformed to be more representative and to limit the exercise of the veto if it is to be accepted as the ultimate enforcement body for a nuclear weapons-free world.

Page 8 I. CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS-FREE WORLD

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A. Views of Governments

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C. Progress toward Meeting the Criteria for an Achievable and Sustainable Nuclear Weapons- Free World

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Page 18 D. Strategic Security

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E. Cooperative and Common Security

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II. BUILDING THE FRAMEWORK FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS-FREE WORLD

A) Process and Strategy

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B) Choices Regarding the Architecture of a Nuclear Weapons-Free World

1) Legal Instruments

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2) Institutions

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CONCLUSION

80. A favorable global environment now exists for undertaking comprehensive work leading to a global regime of zero nuclear weapons: relatively cooperative, and increasingly inclusive, relations among key states, and rising global consciousness of the complete unacceptability of nuclear weapons. The proliferation of conditions by the Permanent Five is at bottom a defense of an unconscionable status quo. The General Assembly speciﬁed the right approach in the First Special Session on Disarmament, which held: “In order to create favourable conditions for success in the disarmament process, all States should strictly abide by the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations, refrain from actions which might adversely affect efforts in the ﬁeld of disarmament, and display a constructive approach to negotiations and the political will to reach agreements.”

81. One particularly artiﬁcial set of conditions is based on the identiﬁcation of measures that must be accomplished prior to tackling others. The step-by-step approach pushes realization of a nuclear weapons-free world off into an unseen future. But when the entire path is not seen, standing still in a known present may seem better than taking the next step. The step- by-step approach is subject to starts and stops. Progress on the disarmament enterprise is delayed when one measure is blocked. The risk is raised that developments like new countries’ acquisition of nuclear weapons or rising tensions among major powers could take disarmament off the agenda.

82. A comprehensive approach is no panacea; it too could move slowly at times. But it would place measures like reductions or negotiation of a ﬁssile materials treaty or CTBT entry into force within a larger perspective and process, stimulating movement. It would reinforce the non- proliferation norm. It would enable a focus on issues that must be resolved if the disarmament enterprise is to keep moving. Not least among such issues is the control of missile defenses and other strategic systems. It would require that answers be developed for key questions regarding the establishment of a nuclear weapons-free world, notably what governance and security arrangements would be required for states to relinquish their arsenals.

83. The Middle Powers Initiative therefore urges middle powers to do all that is within their power to support and stimulate a comprehensive approach, ideally through creation of a process explicitly devoted to establishment of a nuclear weapons-free world. Through the Framework Forum and otherwise, MPI stands ready to assist in that endeavor.

Page 30 Page 31 MIDDLE POWERS INITIATIVE

Through the Middle Powers Initiative, eight international non-governmental organizations (the Albert Schweitzer Foundation, the Global Security Institute, the International Association of Lawyers against Nuclear Arms, the International Network of Engineers and Scientists for Global Responsibility, the International Peace Bureau, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, and the ! Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom), work with middle power governments to advance nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation through immediate practical steps that reduce nuclear dangers and the commencement of negotiations to eliminate nuclear weapons. MPI is guided by an International Steering Committee, chaired by Dr. Tadatoshi Akiba, the former Mayor of Hiroshima, Japan.

Middle power countries are politically and economically significant, internationally respected countries that have renounced the nuclear arms race, a standing that gives them significant political credibility.

MPI, which started in 1998, is widely regarded in the international arena as a highly effective leader in promoting practical steps toward the elimination of nuclear weapons.

The work of MPI includes: a) Delegations to educate and influence high-level policy makers such as foreign, defense, and prime ministers and presidents. Delegations focus on leaders who have great impact on nuclear weapon policy making, both domestically and internationally. MPI Delegations are planned to coincide with significant political events such as the NPT Review Conferences and their preparatory meetings, NATO and other summits; b) Strategy Consultations, which serve as the ‘‘off the record’’ interventions designed to provide a working environment in which ambassadors, diplomats, experts, and policy makers can come together in an informal setting at pivotal opportunities, in order to complement the ongoing treaty negotiations at various forums such as the United Nations or the European Parliament; and c) Publications, such as Briefing Papers, that examine whether or not the nuclear abolition agenda is progressing and make corresponding recommendations to governments and activists. MPI Briefing Papers serve as intellectual catalysts for the MPI Delegations and MPI Strategy Consultations, and are widely read.