SPECIAL REPORT

Ecuador: a new political map

Quito, June 2014

BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO : A NEW POLITICAL MAP

1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 2. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE RESULTS On February 23 last (23F), Ecuador went through an electoral 3. A STRATEGY THAT DID NOT process to choose its local authorities. Therefore, no President, Vice- WORK OUT president, Andean parliamentary or members of the Assembly were elected during these elections. Instead, Ecuadorians attended to the 4. WHERE DO THESE RESULTS COME polls to elect 23 prefects and 23 deputy prefects, 221 mayors, 867 FROM? urban councilors, 438 rural councilors and 4.079 members of parish 5. TOWARDS 2017 councils out of 27.895 candidates. However, it was not a typical day: 6. CONCLUSIONS the results stirred the interest of both citizens and political parties because Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza PAIS, suffered a setback that AUTHORS very few would have thought possible. LLORENTE & CUENCA These results did not do justice to the great popularity of the President of the Republic, . His popularity is sometimes reflected in the candidates of his political movement. This was the case during the last legislative elections when Alianza PAIS obtained 100 seats in the National Assembly because it had the Head of State as its standard-bearer.

Some of the members of the Assembly who won in 2013 stood as candidates during the local elections but this time they did not have enough support to win. They thought they were very important figures but it seems that citizens choose people, not a political project, especially when it comes to their closest leaders.

These changes at a local level could be a consequence of a partisan strategy that had a negative impact on the ruling party because of its "sectarianism", as his National President, Rafael Correa, stated. It could also be a consequence of not building alliances with Avanza, a party aligned with the government decisions and led by the Minister of Industry, Ramiro González.

From now on, opposition parties, Ecuador's ruling party Alianza PAIS and pro-government organizations will have to pave the way towards the general elections of 2017. However, before paving the way, both the future candidates and their working teams will have to ask themselves two questions: Why did Ecuadorian citizens not vote for Alianza PAIS as clearly as they did for Rafael Correa in 2013? Are they trying to tell the government that they do not want the monopolization of all the public powers?

We will answer all these questions through an overview of the results of the last local elections. We will also examine the political strategies developed by the political organizations of Ecuador and finally we will explain what might happen in the 2017 general elections.

2 ECUADOR: A NEW POLITICAL MAP

2. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF Assembly on his side. Nevertheless, THE RESULTS people wonder if their local leader, supposing that he is not from the Looking through the general ruling party, will comply with his elections of 2013 we find that the work proposal without having the current Head of State won 57 % of support of the central government. the votes. Some analysts point out that, back then, around 30 % of It is also important to look at the electorate voted for the ruling the political organization of the “Quito, Guayaquil party. The National Assembly and country. Despite the fact that and Cuenca, the the Andean Parliament were also Alianza PAIS lost some cities that most important elected. These two different were its stronghold, traditional cities of Ecuador, types of elections -general and political parties are still weak. A surprised everyone local- make the difference in the clear example of this is that Rafael results because the citizens vote Correa won 58 % of the votes on February 23, for everything leaded by Rafael followed by (CREO) making the political Correa. who only obtained 22 % of the votes. map of the country a A year later CREO is no longer the multicolored one” Certainly, it is not a straightforward second political force in Ecuador, task to compare the two types of SUMA and Avanza are currently the elections; however, it was clear second political force. that the electorate was asking itself a question: how much Thus, as a consequence of the additional power do I want to give political de-structuring, Quito, to the President? That question Guayaquil and Cuenca, the most arises from the understanding that important cities of Ecuador, Rafael Correa has the National surprised everyone on February 23, making the political map of the country a multicolored one. The political analysts have suggested several reasons to explain why the political map of Ecuador is no longer only green: a weakening of the government, citizens have matured, the Ecuadorians still accept Rafael Correa as their leader but they want their own local authorities.

On a national level, Alianza PAIS won 10 prefectures, the same prefectures it won in the previous elections. However, when it comes to provincial capitals, the ruling party went from 10 mayors to 3, followed by SUMA who obtained five and Avanza who obtained three burgomasters.

3 ECUADOR: A NEW POLITICAL MAP

After February 23, it seems that attacked the President. None of some political organizations are the strategies were creative. no longer taken into account by citizens. The Patriotic Society During the electoral campaign Party (PSP), led by the former before February 23, citizens President of the Republic Lucio wanted to see their candidates Gutiérrez; the Ecuadorian and future local authorities, not Roldosist Party, led by the the President of the Republic. former Head of State Abdalá It seems that people were not Bucaram; the Democratic comfortable with the idea of People's Movement, and the having Rafael Correa being part of Institutional Renewal Party the electoral movements because of National Action, led by the the local autonomous governments businessman Álvaro Noboa, are are independent from the central a clear example of this. government. The Ecuadorian citizens felt that the meaning of 3. A STRATEGY THAT DID the elections was being lost and found themselves thinking that NOT WORK OUT the Head of State cannot have all existing powers. Alianza PAIS showed Rafael Correa's picture together with Thus, people believe that mayors every other candidate of AP, in all and prefects should be leaders that of their promotional materials. take care of the interests of their His picture appeared on posters, citizens no matter their political billboards, calendars etc. inclinations. Citizens want their Rafael Correa together with Augusto Alternatively, the opposition candidates to be independent, not Barrera during the election campaign for local elections obedient. If we take Quito as an example, we can observe that every time the President of the Republic made a public appearance as if he were the candidate, or appeared together with his candidate, he made Augusto Barrera look unimportant, even more when the whole government machinery was at the service of the candidate for mayor of Quito.

In the same spirit, it was clear that Alianza PAIS was devoting all of its resources to cities such as Guayaquil. However, when the leaders of the ruling party realized that other towns also needed their attention, it was too late and the electoral surveys were not favorable.

4 ECUADOR: A NEW POLITICAL MAP

4. WHERE DO THESE RESULTS credibility has ranged from 60 % to COME FROM? 65 % and between 70 % and 80 % of the Ecuadorian citizens approve There are three answers for this his management. Nonetheless, “There are three one question: protest voting there were two major setbacks: against some local authorities before September 30 (when a answers for this one due to their mismanagement; a police uprising took place) and question: protest voting not so good government strategy, after the 10 questions popular against some local as it eroded the image of Rafael consultation regarding a change authorities due to their Correa; and a lack of alliances in the country's judicial system. mismanagement; a not with local political movements. so good government Despite these data, people begin On the one hand, in some local to think that the President of strategy, as it eroded autonomous governments, citizens the Republic should not have the image of Rafael did not want the current local all the powers and also that Correa; and a lack of authorities to be the leaders of his leadership style and power alliances with local their territory anymore, due to require an analysis, especially political movements” mismanagement or because it was after the February 23 results. the end of a cycle. On the other hand, thinking that anyone wearing However, this analysis or change green will have enough votes to of strategy could lead to a legal win the elections was a mistake. amendment which would allow Finally, while the ruling party Rafael Correa to be reelected. planned a strategy at a national The Head of State has already level, the other parties planned a announced that he will ask the strategy designed to address the legislative body to consider needs of each province and city. a proposal to reform the Constitution in order to allow the Could it be argued that the indefinite reelection of all posts Ecuadorians want to live in an subjected to popular elections. era different from the seven With this decision, Alianza PAIS years hegemony of the Citizens' would suggest that it has no Revolution? The President of the political follow-through. Republic Rafael Correa stated that citizens have become more Despite Rafael Correa stated demanding because they have months ago that he will retire from seen that the national government active politics in 2017, date of the is doing its work and they want expiration of his term of office, he the local authorities to do that affirmed that "there is still much to and much more. be done" in the country and that he is willing to continue the fight for the radicalization of the Citizens' 5. TOWARDS 2017 Revolution. Ximena Ponce, member of the Assembly and member of the Rafael Correa assumed office Political Bureau of AP explained seven years ago, during this that the idea of reelection was not period of time, his positive image new, although after February 23 it has ranged from 70 % to 75 %; his has gathered momentum.

5 ECUADOR: A NEW POLITICAL MAP

Nonetheless, according to have the same importance political analysts, Jaime Nebot, as in previous years. mayor of Guayaquil, has ended “According to political his political cycle; Mauricio • Citizens see their local Rodas, mayor of Quito, should authorities as close leaders analysts, Jaime Nebot, end his term of office as mayor who know their specific mayor of Guayaquil, of the capital. As a result, if needs. This explains why they has ended his political Guillermo Lasso were the only do not really care if their local cycle; Mauricio Rodas, presidential candidate of the leaders belong (or not) to the mayor of Quito, right-wing and if a far-left political party of the President should end his term of candidate stood for election, of the Republic. Moreover, Rafael Correa would go back to according to the surveys, office as mayor of the the Carondelet Palace. the image, credibility and capital” management of the President are still positively valued. 6. CONCLUSIONS • Alianza PAIS is already • The ruling party, Alianza planning a proposal to reform PAIS, suffered a setback the Constitution that will in the local elections of allow indefinite reelection. February 23. What is more, Therefore, it could be ratified other political parties that there is an authoritarian obtained good electoral leader at the ruling party. In results in some mayor cities addition to this, the opposition such as Quito, Guayaquil does not have a strong candidate and Cuenca. However, and thus it is impossible to there are also political have a political pendulum like organizations that no longer in other countries.

6 ECUADOR: A NEW POLITICAL MAP

AUTHORS

Catherine Buelvas, Director General of LLORENTE & CUENCA in Ecuador. She is a Social Communicator, specialized in Human Ma- nagement Direction, Strategic Direction, Leadership and Coaching. She has a broad experience in reputation building for many com- panies within the cosmetic, health, sports and technology sectors. She has also developed strategies for institutions of the govern- mental sector. She was the Director of Public Relations, Corporate Communications and CSR for the Andean Region in Henkel and Communication and Social Responsibility Manager in Alquería. [email protected]

Danniella Terán, Consultant in LLORENTE & CUENCA Ecuador. She is a graduate in Corporate Communication and she holds an MA in Institutional and Political Communication. She has also participated in the communication for electoral cam- paigns. In LL&C, she has collaborated in public, private and non-governmental organizations, in the fields of Corporations and Public Affairs, construction and strategy implementation. [email protected]

7 Leading Communications Consultancy in Spain, Portugal and Latin America

LLORENTE & CUENCA is the leading Reputation Management, Communication, and Public Affairs consultancy in Spain, Portugal, and Latin America. It has 17 partners and more than 300 professionals who provide strategic consultancy services to companies in all business sectors with operations aimed at the Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries.

It currently has offices in , , , , China, Ecuador, Spain, Mexico, Panama, , Portugal and the Dominican Republic. It also offers its services through affiliates in the United States, , and .

Its international development has meant that in 2014 LLORENTE & CUENCA is 55th in the Global ranking of the most important communication companies in the world, as reflected in the annual Ranking published by The Holmes Report.

Organisation

CORPORATE MANAGEMENT LATIN AMERICA Panama

José Antonio Llorente Javier Rosado Alejandro Romero Founding partner and Chairman Partner and Managing Director Partner and Latin American CEO [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Enrique González José Luis Di Girolamo Avda. Samuel Lewis. Edificio Omega, piso 6 Partner and CFO Partner and Latin American CFO Panama City (Panama) [email protected] [email protected] Tel. +507 206 5200

Jorge Cachinero Antonio Lois Quito Corporate Director for Innovation Regional Director of Human Resources [email protected] [email protected] Catherine Buelvas Managing Director SPAIN AND PORTUGAL Bogota [email protected]

Arturo Pinedo María Esteve Av. 12 de Octubre 1830 y Cordero. Partner and Managing Director Managing Director Edificio World Trade Center, Torre B, piso 11 [email protected] [email protected] Distrito Metropolitano de Quito (Ecuador) Tel. +593 2 2565820 Adolfo Corujo Germán Jaramillo Partner and Managing Director Chief Executive Rio de Janeiro [email protected] [email protected] Yeray Carretero Madrid Carrera 14, # 94-44. Torre B — of. 501 Director Bogota (Colombia) [email protected] Joan Navarro Tel. +57 1 7438000 Partner and Vice-President of Public Affairs Rua da Assembleia, 10 — sala 1801 [email protected] Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro — RJ (Brazil) Tel. +55 21 3797 6400 Amalio Moratalla Pablo Abiad Partner and Senior Director Partner and Managing Director São Paulo [email protected] [email protected] Juan Carlos Gozzer Juan Castillero Enrique Morad Managing Director Financial Director Chief Executive for the Southern Cone [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Rua Oscar Freire, 379, CJ 111, Cerqueira César Lagasca, 88 — planta 3 Av. Corrientes 222, piso 8. C1043AAP CEP 01426-001 São Paulo SP (Brazil) 28001 Madrid (Spain) Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina) Tel. +55 11 3082 3390 Tel. +34 91 563 77 22 Tel. +54 11 5556 0700 Santiago de Chile Barcelona Lima Claudio Ramírez María Cura Luisa García Partner and General Manager Partner and Managing Director Partner and CEO of the Andean Region [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Avenida Vitacura 2939 Piso 10. Las Condes Muntaner, 240-242, 1º-1ª Cayetana Aljovín Santiago de Chile (Chile) 08021 Barcelona (Spain) General Manager Tel. +56 2 24315441 Tel. +34 93 217 22 17 [email protected]

Lisbon Av. Andrés Reyes 420, piso 7 Santo Domingo San Isidro. Lima (Peru) Madalena Martins Tel. +51 1 2229491 Alejandra Pellerano Founding Partner Managing Director [email protected] Mexico [email protected]

Carlos Matos Juan Rivera Avda. Abraham Lincoln Founding Partner Partner and Managing Director Torre Ejecutiva Sonora, planta 7 [email protected] [email protected] Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic) Tel. +1 8096161975 Rua do Fetal, 18 Bosque de Radiatas # 22 — PH7 2714-504 S. Pedro de Sintra (Portugal) 05120 Bosques las Lomas (México D.F.) Tel. + 351 21 923 97 00 Tel. +52 55 52571084

Corporative webpage UNO Magazine YouTube Facebook www.llorenteycuenca.com www.revista-uno.com www.youtube.com/LLORENTEYCUENCA www.facebook.com/llorenteycuenca

Centre of Ideas Twitter LinkedIn Slideshare www.dmasillorenteycuenca.com http://twitter.com/llorenteycuenca www.linkedin.com/company/llorente-&-cuenca www.slideshare.net/LLORENTEYCUENCA d+i is a hub by LLORENTE & CUENCA, for Ideas, Analysis and Trends.

We live in a new macroeconomic and social context, and communication has to evolve. d+i is a global combination of partnership and knowledge exchange, identifying, focusing and communicating new information models, from an independent perspective. d+i is a constant ideas flow, looking to the future information and management trends.

Because nothing is black or white, there is something like d+i LLORENTE & CUENCA. www.dmasillorenteycuenca.com