Tomblin and Ireland Favorites to Face Off for WV Governor

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 26, 2011

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

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Tomblin and Ireland favorites to face off for WV governor

Raleigh, N.C. – Former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland and acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin have healthy, almost 2:1 leads in their respective primaries to face off for governor this fall.

In the Republican contest, Ireland has 31% support over businessman Bill Maloney’s 17%, with everyone else in single digits: State Sen. Clark Barnes and State Del. Mitch Carmichael at 8%, district attorney Mark Sorsaia at 4%, former State Del. Larry Faircloth and professor Ralph William Clark at 2%, and former Westover mayor Cliff Ellis at 1%.

The acting incumbent has an advantage in a crowded Democratic field. Tomblin leads with 32%, about the same as the next two candidates combined. Three candidates—State Treasurer John Perdue (17%), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (16%), and State House Speaker Rick Thompson (15%)—are in a statistical tie for second. State Sen. Jeff Kessler (5%) and activist Arne Moltis (1%) bring up the rear. 14% are still undecided, with the primary less than three weeks away. Twice that many are undecided in the GOP race, more than enough to make a difference if they end up voting.

In the GOP presidential race, Donald Trump has catapulted to a tie for the lead with Mike Huckabee, each at 24%, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann at 3%. When PPP last polled the race in January, Huckabee led Palin, Gingrich, and Romney, 28-23-17-10, so Trump’s emergence has taken the greatest toll on Palin and Gingrich. Trump is the least liked of the candidates, and the main reason he is getting so much support is birtherism. Among the 53% who do not believe President Obama was born in the U.S., Trump tops Huckabee and Palin, 30-22-17, but among the 22% who do not buy into that theory, Huckabee leads 23-16-15 over Romney and Trump, with Palin in seventh at only 6%.

PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0% margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of error, from April 21st to 24th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] West Virginia Democratic Survey Results

Q1 The Democratic candidates for Governor are Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Jeff Kessler, Arne Moltis, John Perdue, Natalie Obama’s job performance? Tennant, Rick Thompson, and Earl Ray 42% 12% Tomblin. If the primary was today, who would Approve...... Not sure ...... you vote for? Disapprove...... 46% Jeff Kessler...... 5% Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Arne Moltis...... 1% John McCain...... 34% John Perdue ...... 17% Barack Obama...... 54% Natalie Tennant...... 16% Someone else/Don't remember ...... 12% Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Rick Thompson...... 15% somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Earl Ray Tomblin...... 32% conservative, or very conservative? Undecided...... 14% Very liberal...... 15% Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl Somewhat liberal ...... 19% Ray Tomblin’s job performance? Moderate...... 37% Approve...... 58% Not sure ...... 24% Somewhat conservative...... 19% Disapprove...... 19% 10% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Very conservative ...... of John Perdue? Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Favorable...... 32% Woman ...... 58% Unfavorable ...... 26% Man...... 42% Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. Not sure ...... 42% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion White ...... 95% of Natalie Tennant? Other...... 5% Favorable...... 43% Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are Unfavorable ...... 26% older than 65, press 4. Not sure ...... 31% 18 to 29...... 14% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Thompson? 30 to 45...... 20% Favorable...... 32% 46 to 65...... 40% Unfavorable ...... 23% Older than 65 ...... 26% Not sure ...... 46%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Obama Approval Obama Approval Not Not Bas e Approve Dis appr ove sure Bas e Approve Dis appr ove sure 2011 Dem Gov Tomblin Approval

Prim ary Approve 58% 62% 56% 48% Jeff Kessler 5% 8% 4% 4% Dis appr ove 19% 16% 23% 13% Arne Moltis 1% 0% 1% - Not s ur e 24% 22% 21% 39% John Perdue 17% 16% 21% 9% Natalie Tennant 16% 20% 11% 17% Rick Thompson 15% 15% 13% 23% Earl Ray Tomblin 31% 27% 36% 30% Unde cide d 15% 14% 14% 18%

Obama Approval Obama Approval Not Not Bas e Approve Dis appr ove sure Bas e Approve Dis appr ove sure Perdue Favorability Tennant Favorability Favorable 32% 38% 31% 16% Favorable 43% 57% 31% 37% Unfavorable 27% 29% 26% 19% Unfavorable 27% 20% 35% 18% Not s ur e 41% 33% 43% 66% Not s ur e 31% 24% 34% 45%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Obama Approval 2008 Vote

Not John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e Approve Dis appr ove sure Bas e McCain Obam a remember 2011 Dem Gov Thompson Prim ary Favorability Jeff Kessler 5% 8% 5% - Favorable 32% 39% 26% 28% Arne Moltis 1% 1% - 2% Unfavorable 23% 22% 26% 13% John Perdue 17% 19% 17% 11% Not s ur e 45% 38% 48% 60% Natalie Tennant 16% 11% 18% 16% Rick Thompson 15% 10% 18% 14% Earl Ray Tomblin 32% 37% 28% 34% Unde cide d 14% 13% 14% 23%

2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Tomblin Approval Perdue Favorability Approve 58% 57% 61% 45% Favorable 32% 31% 35% 20% Dis appr ove 19% 19% 19% 16% Unfavorable 26% 30% 26% 20% Not s ur e 24% 24% 20% 39% Not s ur e 42% 40% 39% 60%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Tennant Favorability Thompson

Favorability Favorable 43% 33% 54% 21% Favorable 32% 30% 34% 25% Unfavorable 26% 38% 20% 22% Unfavorable 23% 24% 23% 18% Not s ur e 31% 30% 26% 56% Not s ur e 46% 46% 43% 57%

Prim ary Approve 58% 64% 56% 57% 56% 57% Jeff Kessler 5% 8% 7% 5% 5% 1% Disapprove 19% 20% 22% 19% 19% 8% Arne Moltis 1% - - 1% 1% 2% Not s ur e 24% 16% 22% 23% 26% 34% John Perdue 17% 20% 12% 17% 24% 12% Natalie Tennant 16% 22% 21% 15% 8% 13% Rick Thompson 15% 16% 18% 17% 7% 16% Earl Ray Tomblin 32% 25% 25% 32% 42% 36% Unde cide d 14% 9% 18% 14% 13% 21%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Perdue Favorability Tennant Favorability Favorable 32% 38% 33% 30% 38% 17% Favorable 43% 53% 56% 37% 40% 27% Unfavorable 26% 28% 31% 24% 29% 22% Unfavorable 26% 26% 20% 28% 28% 30% Not s ur e 42% 34% 36% 47% 34% 60% Not s ur e 31% 21% 23% 36% 32% 42%

Ideology Ge nder Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e Wom an Man Thompson 2011 Dem Gov Favorability Favorable 32% 42% 36% 30% 22% 32% Prim ary Unfavorable 23% 25% 23% 23% 27% 10% Jeff Kessler 5% 4% 7% Not s ur e 46% 34% 41% 47% 50% 58% Arne Moltis 1% 0% 1% John Perdue 17% 16% 19% Natalie Tennant 16% 16% 15% Rick Thompson 15% 16% 13% Earl Ray Tomblin 32% 32% 31% Unde cide d 14% 16% 12%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Ge nder Ge nder

Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Tomblin Approval Perdue Favorability Approve 58% 58% 57% Favorable 32% 25% 42% Dis appr ove 19% 14% 25% Unfavorable 26% 24% 30% Not s ur e 24% 27% 18% Not s ur e 42% 51% 28%

Ge nder Ge nder

Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Tennant Favorability Thompson

Favorability Favorable 43% 43% 42% Favorable 32% 29% 34% Unfavorable 26% 24% 30% Unfavorable 23% 19% 28% Not s ur e 31% 33% 28% Not s ur e 46% 52% 37%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Race Race

Bas e White Other Bas e White Other 2011 Dem Gov Tomblin Approval

Prim ary Approve 58% 58% 59% Jeff Kessler 5% 5% 6% Dis appr ove 19% 19% 7% Arne Moltis 1% 1% - Not s ur e 24% 23% 34% John Perdue 17% 17% 18% Natalie Tennant 16% 16% 16% Rick Thompson 15% 15% 5% Earl Ray Tomblin 32% 31% 34% Unde cide d 14% 14% 20%

Race Race

Bas e White Other Bas e White Other Perdue Favorability Tennant Favorability Favorable 32% 32% 24% Favorable 43% 43% 40% Unfavorable 26% 26% 33% Unfavorable 26% 26% 29% Not s ur e 42% 42% 42% Not s ur e 31% 31% 31%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Race Age

Bas e White Other 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Thompson Bas e 29 45 65 than 65

Favorability 2011 Dem Gov

Prim ary Favorable 32% 32% 27% Jeff Kessler 5% 5% 2% 7% 7% Unfavorable 23% 23% 22% Arne Moltis 1% - - 0% 2% Not s ur e 46% 45% 51% John Perdue 17% 23% 12% 16% 20% Natalie Tennant 16% 13% 19% 14% 18% Rick Thompson 15% 13% 14% 18% 13% Earl Ray Tomblin 32% 38% 38% 30% 27% Unde cide d 14% 10% 16% 15% 15%

Age Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Tomblin Approval Perdue Favorability Approve 58% 63% 59% 58% 54% Favorable 32% 35% 21% 30% 41% Dis appr ove 19% 15% 19% 21% 17% Unfavorable 26% 20% 33% 29% 21% Not s ur e 24% 23% 22% 21% 29% Not s ur e 42% 45% 47% 40% 38%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Age Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Tennant Favorability Thompson

Favorability Favorable 43% 40% 40% 42% 46% Favorable 32% 40% 29% 33% 27% Unfavorable 26% 25% 34% 26% 22% Unfavorable 23% 20% 22% 24% 23% Not s ur e 31% 35% 26% 32% 32% Not s ur e 46% 40% 48% 43% 50%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 West Virginia Survey Results

Q1 The Republican candidates for Governor are Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Clark Barnes, Mitch Carmichael, Ralph William of Bill Maloney? Clark, Cliff Ellis, Larry Faircloth, Betty Ireland, 27% Bill Maloney, and Mark Sorsaia. If the primary Favorable...... was today, who would you vote for? Unfavorable ...... 11% Clark Barnes ...... 8% Not sure ...... 62% Mitch Carmichael ...... 8% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? Ralph William Clark...... 2% Favorable...... 57% Cliff Ellis...... 1% Unfavorable ...... 20% Larry Faircloth...... 2% Not sure ...... 23% Betty Ireland...... 31% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Bill Maloney ...... 17% of Mike Huckabee? Mark Sorsaia...... 4% Favorable...... 73% Not sure ...... 17% Undecided...... 28% Unfavorable ...... 10% Q2 If the Republican candidates for President in Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion 2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, of Sarah Palin? Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim 67% Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump Favorable...... who would you vote for? Unfavorable ...... 18% Michele Bachmann ...... 3% Not sure ...... 15% Newt Gingrich ...... 9% Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Mike Huckabee ...... 24% Favorable...... 51% Sarah Palin ...... 13% Unfavorable ...... 23% Ron Paul...... 3% Not sure ...... 26% Tim Pawlenty ...... 4% Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Mitt Romney...... 11% of Donald Trump? Donald Trump ...... 24% Favorable...... 47% Someone else/Undecided...... 9% Unfavorable ...... 33% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure ...... 20% of Betty Ireland? Favorable...... 47% Unfavorable ...... 15% Not sure ...... 38%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q10 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. United States? Woman ...... 51% Yes...... 22% Man...... 49% No ...... 53% Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Not sure ...... 26% 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat 18 to 29...... 6% conservative, or very conservative? 30 to 45...... 24% Very liberal...... 2% 46 to 65...... 45% Somewhat liberal ...... 6% Older than 65 ...... 25% Moderate...... 18% Somewhat conservative...... 34% Very conservative ...... 41%

April 21-24, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 274 likely Republican primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Obama Born in Obama Born in US? US?

Not Not Bas e Yes No sure Bas e Yes No sure 2011 GOP Gov 2012 GOP Pres

Prim ary Prim ary Clark Barnes 8% 7% 8% 10% Michele Bachmann 3% 7% 1% 5% Mitch Carmichael 8% 4% 9% 7% Ne w t Gingr ich 9% 13% 8% 8% Ralph William Clark 2% 2% 2% 1% Mike Huckabee 24% 23% 22% 28% Cliff Ellis 1% - - 3% Sarah Palin 13% 6% 17% 10% Larry Faircloth 2% 3% 2% 1% Ron Paul 3% 2% 5% 1% Betty Ireland 31% 39% 25% 37% Tim Pawlenty 4% 7% 3% 2% Bill Maloney 17% 13% 21% 12% Mitt Romney 11% 16% 8% 13% Mark Sorsaia 4% - 6% 1% Donald Trump 24% 15% 30% 18% Unde cide d 28% 32% 26% 28% Som eone 9% 12% 5% 15% else/Undecided

Obama Born in Obama Born in US? US?

Not Not Bas e Yes No sure Bas e Yes No sure Ireland Favorability Maloney Favorability Favorable 47% 67% 43% 41% Favorable 27% 29% 33% 14% Unfavorable 15% 13% 18% 9% Unfavorable 11% 15% 13% 2% Not s ur e 38% 20% 39% 50% Not s ur e 62% 56% 54% 84%