Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service United States Department www.ers.usda.gov of Agriculture

SSS-246

May 30, 2006 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Stephen Haley, Andy Jerardo and David Kelch

Sugar Production in FY 2007 to Increase 800,000 Tons

The National Agricultural Statistics (NASS) published 2006 crop year sugarbeet Contents acreage intentions for planted area at the end of March. Acreage intentions were about U.S. Sugar U.S. Sweetener Demand 6.0 percent higher than 2005 crop year area planted--1.372 million acres. Assuming a Mexican Sugar return to normal sucrose levels from last year’s high levels and trend improvement in & HFCS productivity, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects fiscal year (FY) EU-25 Sugar Policy 2007 national beet sugar production at 4.70 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Honey This projection is about 317,000 STRV more than USDA’s estimate of FY 2006 Maple Syrup production (4.383 million STRV). Mexico Overview USDA Sugar Program The USDA projects cane sugar production at 3.53 million STRV. Florida sugar Response to Weather production is projected to recover from the extremely poor weather-related FY 2006 Disaster output to 1.80 million STRV, an increase of 430,000 STRV. A more modest recovery Sugar-Containing is projected for Louisiana at 1.30 million STRV, an increase of 55,000 STRV over Products At-A-Glance last year’s disappointing estimated results (1.245 million STRV). FY 2006 Texas cane Contacts & Links sugar production is projected at 180,000 STRV and Hawaii cane sugar production is Tables projected at 250,000 STRV. Cane sugar projections U.S. sugarbeet production Although the raw and refined sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) for FY 2007 have not yet Raw sugar tariff quota been announced, the USDA projects them in the World Agricultural Supply and Raw sugar allocation Estimates (WASDE) report at minimum levels implied by existing international Refined sugar imports commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Central American and Product imports & exports Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), and the North American U.S. sugar deliveries Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The projection in the May WASDE is, therefore, at Direct consumption 1.318 million STRV, assuming a shortfall of 50,000 STRV. Included in the total imports ------minimum access quantity is the refined sugar TRQ whose minimum access Web Sites commitment is 24,251 STRV, or 22,000 metric tons, raw value (MTRV). WASDE Sugar Briefing Room Other program sugar imports outside the sugar TRQ for FY 2007 are projected to total ------325,000 STRV. Other USDA import programs include the Refined Sugar Re-export The next release is Program, the Sugar-Containing Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol September 28, 2006 Program. Non-program imports for FY 2007 are projected at 175,000 STRV. ------Included in this amount is sugar from imported syrups at 75,000 STRV, the same Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook amount as for FY 2006, and high-tier tariff sugar imports at 100,000 STRV, down Board. from the FY 2006 estimate of 250,000 STRV.

Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use for FY 2007 are projected at 10.250 million STRV, an increase of 100,000 STRV over the FY 2006 delivery estimate. The projection for the Sugar-Containing Product Re-export deliveries is 125,000 STRV, an increase of 50,000 over the FY 2006 estimate. The FY 2007 projections for deliveries for the manufacture of polyhydric alcohol and feed uses are 20,000 STRV for each, the same as the FY 2006 estimates.

Sugar deliveries for the first two quarters of FY 2006 are seemingly robust at 5.047 million STRV, 3.4 percent higher than the same two quarters in FY 2005. In spite of the strong delivery growth, the USDA estimates FY 2006 deliveries for human food and beverage use at 10.150 million STRV, which would represent growth of only 1.3 percent. This fiscal year has been different than previous years because of the high proportion of deliveries constituted by direct consumption imports. These imports have totaled about 361,000 from October 2005 through March 2006. Imports for March were a record at 142,000 STRV and were only known after the publication of the May 2006 WASDE.

Ending stocks are the difference between supply and use. For FY 2007, ending stocks are projected at 869,323 STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 8.2 percent. Because FY 2007 TRQ imports were projected only at the commitment level required by the WTO, CAFTA-DR, and NAFTA, less projected shortfall, it is possible that ending stocks will be projected higher after the USDA announces the FY 2007 TRQ for sugar. For FY 2006, ending stocks are estimated at 1.436 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.76 percent.

Although U.S. sugar prices continue to be higher than normal, there is a wide disparity in the various measures of those prices. In April 2006 the Midwest refined beet sugar spot price averaged 36.38 cents per pound, compared with 23.80 cents in April 2005, for a 52.9-percent increase. Other measures of refined prices do not show as much growth. The April 2006 refined beet sugar producer price index reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is 27.7 percent higher than the same month last year, and the refined cane sugar price is 29.3 percent higher. Raw sugar prices are up only 10 percent over levels of a year ago, buoyed by high world raw sugar prices while limited by domestic refining capacity constraints. Consumer sugar prices have increased, but not nearly as much as wholesale refined prices. The U.S. retail price for refined sugar in April was estimated at 48.00 cents per pound by BLS. This is 10.1 percent higher than in April 2005. Consumer price indices of sugar-containing products show inconclusive effects of higher sugar prices.

2 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA U.S. Sugar

On May 12, 2006, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest supply and use estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2006 and first projections for FY 2007 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Production

For most of the year, the USDA’s Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC) for sugar does not project sugar production for the out-year crop. The USDA accepts the production estimates and projections provided by beet sugar processors and cane sugar millers to the Farm Service Agency (FSA). However, the processors’ and millers’ forecasts are not available until July of the preceding crop year. Therefore, in the meantime, the WASDE reflects ICEC projections for FY 2007 sugar in May and June.

FY 2007 Beet Sugar Production

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published 2006 crop year sugarbeet acreage intentions for planted area at the end of March. Acreage intentions were about 6.0 percent higher than 2005 crop year area planted--1.372 million acres. Figure 1 shows the distribution of area planted across the major producing regions since 2004. Acreage increases are largest for the Great Plains region (14.1 percent) and the Far West region (9.0 percent).

Figure 1 U.S. sugarbeet area planted by State, 2004-06 1,000 acres 900 774 800 742 746 700 2004 2005 2006 600 500 400 261 300 225 245 200 167 176 175 200 149 153 100 0 Great Lakes Upper Midwest Great Plains Far West Source: USDA.

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On average, 97.9 percent of area planted is harvested, or 1.340 million acres for FY 2007. A State-by-State analysis of sugarbeet yield trends implies a national yield projection of 22.53 tons per acre, an increase of 0.21 ton above the previous year. The resulting sugarbeet production projection is 30.2 million tons, about 9.2 percent more than last year. Assuming normal sucrose levels and trend improvement in productivity, national beet sugar production is projected at 4.70 million short tons, raw value (STRV). This projection is 317,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) more than FY 2006 estimated production (4.383 million STRV).

FY 2007 Cane Sugar Production

Table 1 shows cane sugar projections by State, along with underlying assumptions made by the sugar ICEC. The first column shows projected area harvested. Because NASS does not forecast area harvested until the end of June, the same area is assumed to be harvested as the previous year for the mainland States. Yield is projected either according to trend analysis (Florida) or as an average of recent year yields (Hawaii) or according to reported field/crop conditions (Louisiana and Texas). Mainland State sugar yields are projected based on sugarcane yields, trend productivity improvement, and normal sucrose levels. Sugar production is the multiplication of sugar yield and area harvested. In Hawaii, a recovery of 12.75 percent is projected.

After several years of disappointing results, growers in Louisiana are showing some optimism. Early-season conditions in Louisiana are encouraging. Warm, dry conditions have contributed to a good start for the cane crop. In increasing numbers, growers are expressing willingness and the desire to switch out of the primary sugarcane variety LCP 85-384 and into newer, higher-yielding varieties, especially

Table 1--FY 2007 cane sugar projections State Area harvested Sugarcane Sugarcane Projected Sugar Recovery for sugar yield for sugar sugar yield production rate (1,000 acres) (ton per acre) (1,000 tons) (STRV per acre) (1,000 STRV) (percent) Mainland Florida 377.0 37.14 14,002 4.77 1,800 12.86 Louisiana 420.0 25.00 10,500 3.14 1,320 1/ 12.57 Texas 41.0 36.20 1,484 3.99 180 12.13 Sub-total 838.0 31.01 25,986 3.94 3,300 12.70

Off-shore Hawaii 20.9 95.88 2,000 12.89 250 12.50 Puerto Rico 0.0 -- 0 -- 0 --

Total 858.9 32.59 27,986 4.13 3,550 12.68 1/ In the May 2006 WASDE , Louisiana's production forecast was rounded down to 1,300 thousand STRV. Source: Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar, USDA.

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Ho 96-540, Ho 95-988, and L 97-128. Other varieties being released show expanded yield potential beyond the LCP 85-384 standard.

FY 2006 Production

At half-way through the year, the beet processors’ estimate of FY 2006 beet sugar production is 4.383 million STRV. With a NASS estimate of area harvested at 1.239 million acres, sugar recovery per harvested acre is calculated at 3.538 STRV, about the same as the previous year’s record of 3.529 STRV per acre.

Table 2 shows an efficiency measure of the U.S. beet sugar industry from the 1992/93 crop year through 2004/05 (the 2005/06 figures are estimates). The measure is the ratio of the September/August crop year sugar recovery to the NASS estimate of sucrose content. The higher the rate, the higher the extraction of sucrose contained in the beet crop. The average rate for the period has been 0.872. An ERS regression model suggests that the efficiency measure is a negative function of the size of the sugarbeet crop (elasticity coefficient = -0.11) and a positive function of the recovery rate (elasticity coefficient = 0.54). The model explains 89 percent of the observed variation in the efficiency measure from 1992/93 to 2004/05. Assuming the parameter values in the table for 2005/06, the model would predict a very high efficiency level of 0.909. This would imply a high sucrose level for the 2005/06 crop of 17.44 percent.

Table 2--U.S. sugarbeet crop, beet sugar production, sucrose content, and recovery Sept./Aug. Sugarbeet Crop year Crop year Sucrose Recovery crop year production beet sugar beet recovery content of efficiency production 1/ rate beets -- tons -- --- percent ------ratio ------

1992/93 29,143 4,478 15.36 17.28 0.889 1993/94 26,249 3,965 15.10 17.13 0.882 1994/95 31,853 4,577 14.37 16.65 0.863 1995/96 28,065 3,944 14.05 16.29 0.863 1996/97 26,680 4,042 15.15 17.14 0.884 1997/98 29,886 4,272 14.29 16.94 0.844 1998/99 32,499 4,410 13.57 16.70 0.813 1999/00 33,420 4,931 14.75 17.15 0.860 2000/01 32,541 4,766 14.65 17.27 0.848 2001/02 25,764 4,019 15.60 17.15 0.909 2002/03 27,707 4,220 15.23 16.92 0.900 2003/04 30,710 4,912 15.99 17.74 0.902 2004/05 30,021 4,576 15.24 17.34 0.879 2005/06 (estimated) 2/ 27,654 4,383 15.85 17.44 0.909 1/ Crop year = September/August. 2/ Projected based on beet processors' forecast of sugar production in May 2006 WASDE and NASS sugarbeet forecast (Jan. 2006 Crop Production ). Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

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In the latest FSA survey, Florida cane sugar millers project FY 2006 sugar production at 1.368 million STRV. This forecast implies sugar yield at only 3.63 tons/acre, the lowest level since FY 1990. Based on sugarcane yield and trend, ERS analysis would have suggested a sugar yield closer to 4.10 STRV/acre; therefore, one must conclude that the hurricane was particularly damaging of sucrose content and recovery. Recovery itself is forecast at 11.20 percent, again the lowest level since FY 1990.

The Louisiana sugarcane harvest ended in December, and sugar production was estimated at a low 1.185 million STRV. All 13 sugarcane mills completed processing in less than 95 days, with 11 of those mills processing less than 90 days. A crop year (that is, September-December total) comparison with last year, however, indicates production at about 2.5 percent more than last year. The USDA expects about 60,000 STRV of production next September, the last month of the fiscal year. Production is, therefore, projected at 1.245 million STRV.

Processors in Hawaii estimate production at 255,000 STRV, and the processor in Texas estimates production at 180,000 STRV.

Trade

On August 12, 2005, the raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for FY 2006 was established at 1,231,497 STRV (1,117,195 metric tons, raw value (MTRV)). On August 19, it was increased by 120,000 STRV after the reassignment of the unavailable cane sugar portion of the FY 2006 Overall Allotment Quantity (OAQ). Included in the raw sugar TRQ was an initial allocation to Mexico of 8,000 STRV (7,258 MTRV).

The refined sugar TRQ was initially established at 54,013 STRV (49,000 MTRV). On September 9, the refined sugar TRQ was increased by 75,000 STRV (68,039 MTRV) to compensate for reduced supplies of refined sugar because of the effects of Hurricane Katrina. At the same time, the USDA allowed for early entry of refined sugar associated with the non-specialty sugar portions of the TRQ. On September 29, 2005, the USDA announced that Mexico was a net surplus producer for the 2006 marketing year and set their TRQ at 276,000 STRV (250,384 MTRV) for an additional 268,000 STRV in addition to the original allocation made in August. Under the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), this sugar can enter either as raw or refined sugar.

On December 2, 2005, USDA announced an increase of 450,000 STRV (408,237 MTRV) in the FY 2006 sugar TRQ. The amount was divided between a 300,000- STRV increase in the raw sugar TRQ and a 150,000-STRV increase in the refined sugar TRQ. On February 2, 2006, the USDA again increased both the raw and refined sugar TRQ. The raw sugar TRQ was raised by 250,000 STRV to 1,901,497 STRV. The refined sugar TRQ was also increased by 250,000 STRV, and its level is now at 529,013 STRV. The February sugar TRQ increases were allocated by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on February 21, 2006. Prior to the allocation, USTR consulted with countries regarding sugar availability, and reassigned allocations from countries that cannot meet their proposed allocations. The raw sugar allocated in February must be entered into the United States by July

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1 in order to ensure timely availability to the domestic market. Table 3 shows country allocations and quantities entered through May 8, 2006.

The WASDE projection of TRQ imports for FY 2006 is 2.540 million STRV. Combined raw and refined TRQ imports are 2.430 million STRV. Early entries (recorded in FY 2005 when they entered the United States) are estimated at about 88,000 STRV and the expected TRQ shortfall (including Mexico) is projected at 165,000 STRV. USDA’s current projection of imports from members of the Central American-Dominion Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) is 95,000 STRV. (As of May 8, 2006, CAFTA sugar access has only been made available to El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua for 59,524 STRV or 54,000 MTRV – see table 4.) The NAFTA TRQ is 268,000.

Although the raw and refined sugar TRQs for FY 2007 have not yet been announced, the USDA projects them in the WASDE at minimum levels implied by existing international commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO), CAFTA-DR, and NAFTA. The projection in the May WASDE is, therefore, at 1.318 million STRV, assuming a shortfall of 50,000 STRV.

Other program sugar imports outside the sugar TRQ for FY 2006 are projected to total 250,000 STRV. Other USDA import programs include the Refined Sugar Re- export Program, the Sugar-Containing Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol Program. The projection for FY 2007 is 325,000 STRV. Sugar from imported syrups is estimated at 75,000 STRV for FY 2006 and projected at the same amount for FY 2007.

The USDA estimates high-tier tariff sugar imports at 250,000 STRV. Most, if not all, of this sugar is sourced from Mexico. The projection for FY 2007 is 100,000 STRV.

Table 5 shows import data for refined sugar, both under quota and over-quota, and from Mexico and other sources. Through the first 6 months of the fiscal year, over 600,000 STRV of refined sugar have entered the United States. Over 50 percent of this sugar has been sourced from Mexico. At least through the first 5 months of the fiscal year, about 70 percent of all refined sugar imports have been for direct consumption. The remainder has gone to refineries to be further processed before consumption.

Sugar-Containing Products, Sugar Deliveries, Ending Stocks

Sugar in imported products is estimated at 1.156 million tons for 2006 (table 6). This represents a growth rate of 8.1 percent over the previous year. This is the lowest year-over-year growth rate since 1996. Nonetheless, growth of sugar in sugar confectionery, the largest category of sugar-containing products, was 14.0 percent, up from the 10.5-percent growth of the previous year. Also exhibiting strong growth was sugar in imported carbonated beverages, up 12.3 percent over 2004. Growth rates of sugar in the other categories, although positive, were not particularly strong.

7 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 3--FY 2006 raw sugar tariff-rate quota allocation Quantity entered Countries Announced 8/30/05 Announced 12/9/05 Announced 2/21/06 Total as of 5/8/2006 metric tons raw value (MTRV)

Argentina 50,000 11,797 15,461 77,258 53,551 Australia 96,511 22,771 29,844 149,126 91,391 Barbados 8,139 1,920 -10,059 0 Belize 12,791 3,018 3,955 19,764 19,764 Bolivia 9,302 2,195 2,877 14,374 8,901 Brazil 168,603 39,781 52,138 260,522 211,352 Colombia 27,907 6,584 8,630 43,121 34,977 Congo 7,258 7,258 131 Cote D'Ivoire 7,258 7,258 58 Costa Rica 17,442 4,115 5,394 26,951 20,781 Dominican Republic 204,649 48,286 252,935 100,826 Ecuador 12,791 3,018 3,955 19,764 8,538 El Salvador 30,232 7,133 9,349 46,714 37,728 Fiji 10,465 2,469 12,934 10,557 Gabon 7,258 -7,258 0 Guatemala 55,813 13,169 17,259 86,241 77,136 Guyana 13,953 3,292 4,315 21,560 6,657 Haiti 7,258 -7,258 0 Honduras 11,628 2,744 3,596 17,968 17,967 India 9,302 2,195 11,497 11,475 Jamaica 12,791 3,018 3,955 19,764 5,189 Madagascar 7,258 7,258 Malawi 11,628 2,744 3,596 17,968 7,182 Mauritius 13,953 3,292 4,315 21,560 5,196 Mexico 1/ 7,258 7,258 Mozambique 15,116 3,567 4,674 23,357 18,078 Nicaragua 24,418 5,761 7,551 37,730 23,584 Panama 33,721 7,956 10,428 52,105 39,547 Papua New Guinea 7,258 7,258 7,229 Paraguay 7,258 7,258 2,822 Peru 47,674 11,248 14,742 73,664 49,863 Philippines 156,975 37,037 30,000 224,012 77,625 South Africa 26,744 6,310 8,270 41,324 41,324 St. Kitts & Nevis 7,258 -7,258 0 Swaziland 18,604 4,390 5,753 28,747 18,854 Taiwan 13,953 3,292 -3,292 13,953 Thailand 16,279 3,841 5,034 25,154 Trinidad-Tobago 8,139 1,920 2,517 12,576 Uruguay 7,258 7,258 7,258 Zimbabwe 13,953 3,292 4,315 21,560 14,111

Total 1,226,056 272,155 226,798 1,725,009 1,029,652 1/ On Sept. 29, 2005, Mexico's allocation was increased by 268,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) for a total of 250,386 MTRV. Under the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), this sugar can enter either as raw or refined sugar. Source: USTR, U.S. Customs Service, (quantity entered).

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Table 4--2006 Central American FTA raw sugar allocations as of May 8, 2006 Quantity entered Country Period Allocation as of 5/8/2006 Metric tons, raw value

El Salvador 3/24/06-12/31/06 24,000 24,000

Honduras 4/01/06-12/31/06 8,000 7,800

Nicaragua 4/01/06-12/31/06 22,000 0

Total 54,000 31,800 Source: U.S. Customs Service.

Table 5--Refined sugar imports, Sept. 2006 - March 2006 ------Refined TRQ 1/ ------High-tier tariff 2/ ------Combined Direct cons. World Mexico Other World Mexico Other World Mexico Other sugar 3/ Metric tons, raw value Sept. 88,383 35,418 52,964 16,836 14,096 2,740 105,219 49,514 55,704 51,602 Oct 5,361 108 5,253 26,218 23,646 2,572 31,578 23,754 7,825 17,161 Nov. 10,370 0 10,370 22,615 20,899 1,716 32,986 20,899 12,087 22,657 Dec. 56,512 25,127 31,385 13,762 12,590 1,173 70,274 37,716 32,558 50,759 Jan 81,000 45,368 35,632 8,712 7,739 973 89,712 53,108 36,604 83,641 Feb. 25,509 9,233 16,276 9,168 8,252 915 34,677 17,485 17,192 24,268 Mar. 152,735 57,383 95,352 37,749 36,481 1,268 190,484 93,864 96,619 128,822

Total 9/05-3/06 419,869 172,637 247,232 135,060 123,703 11,357 554,929 296,341 258,588 378,910 Total 10/05-3/06 331,486 137,219 194,267 118,224 109,607 8,617 449,710 246,826 202,884 327,308

Short tons, raw value Sept. 97,424 39,042 58,383 18,558 15,538 3,020 115,982 54,579 61,403 56,881 Oct 5,909 119 5,790 28,900 26,065 2,835 34,809 26,184 8,625 18,917 Nov. 11,431 0 11,431 24,929 23,037 1,892 36,360 23,037 13,323 24,975 Dec. 62,293 27,697 34,596 15,170 13,878 1,293 77,463 41,575 35,888 55,952 Jan 89,286 50,010 39,277 9,603 8,531 1,072 98,889 58,541 40,349 92,197 Feb. 28,119 10,177 17,941 10,105 9,096 1,009 38,224 19,274 18,950 26,751 Mar. 4/ 168,359 63,254 105,106 41,611 40,213 1,398 209,970 103,467 106,504 142,000

Total 9/05-3/06 462,821 190,298 272,523 148,877 136,358 12,518 611,698 326,656 285,042 417,673 Total 10/05-3/06 365,397 151,257 214,141 130,318 120,820 9,498 495,716 272,077 223,639 360,792 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1/ HTS codes: 1701.12.1000,1701.91.1000,1701.99.1010,1701.99.1090,1702.90.10,2106.90.4400 2/ HTS codes: 1701.12.5000,1701.91.3000,1701.99.5010,1701.99.5090,1702.90.20,2106.90.4600 3/ Source: "Sweetener Market Data ," FSA, USDA. 4/ Preliminary.

9 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 6--Estimated sugar in U.S. product imports and exports, 1995-2005 Total sugar Total domestic Net sugar Year Sugar Cocoa and cocoa Cereal and bakers Bread, pastry, Misc. edible Carbonated in imported sugar in exported inflow in confectionery preparations preparations cakes, etc. preparations soft drinks products products products Short tons 1995 137,760 66,265 6,286 43,705 68,945 26,405 349,365 228,286 121,079 1996 148,383 75,911 8,580 49,882 60,729 32,456 375,940 259,704 116,236 1997 161,894 92,664 14,273 64,812 68,172 39,403 441,218 244,221 196,997 1998 186,572 97,616 19,110 74,726 91,119 39,811 508,954 234,786 274,168 1999 223,421 111,807 20,116 87,875 118,876 48,165 610,261 256,467 353,794 2000 239,914 130,407 19,548 99,740 120,366 58,745 668,719 364,435 304,284 2001 259,975 160,350 18,097 115,917 127,331 64,961 746,630 358,723 387,907 2002 299,003 193,608 19,419 117,838 140,369 70,852 841,090 311,921 529,169 2003 362,786 208,260 25,139 134,500 150,859 83,440 964,985 344,232 620,753 2004 400,819 220,067 25,082 138,898 186,328 97,731 1,068,925 413,071 655,854 2005 456,969 231,322 26,012 143,742 187,838 109,747 1,155,630 493,281 662,349 Source: Economic Research Service.

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Sugar in products exported from the United States, excluding sugar imported as part of the Products Re-export Program, is estimated at 496,281 tons, an increase of 19.4 percent. Net sugar inflow from traded products is calculated at 662,349 tons.

Quarterly sugar deliveries and sugar flows in imported products are shown in table 7. Sugar deliveries for the first two quarters of FY 2006 are seemingly robust at 5.047 million STRV, 3.4 percent higher than the same two quarters in FY 2005. Sugar in imported product is 635,315 STRV, 11.8 percent higher than the same period last fiscal year.

In spite of the strong delivery growth, the USDA estimates FY 2006 deliveries for domestic human food and beverage use at 10.150 million STRV, which would represent growth of only 1.3 percent. This fiscal year has been different than previous years because of the high proportion of deliveries constituted by direct consumption imports. These imports have totaled about 361,000 from October 2005 through March 2006 (fig. 2). Imports for March were a record at 142,000 STRV (fig. 3) and were only known after the publication of the May 2006 WASDE. Unlike domestic deliveries from beet processors and cane refiners, there is no way to track direct consumption imports to end users, and whether the sugar is stored for later use or is put to immediate use as is usually the case with domestic deliveries.

Remaining fiscal year deliveries depend on many interconnected factors. Based on analysis of trends in domestic deliveries to end users, ERS estimates that total FY 2006 direct consumption imports could total as much as 530,000 STRV to be consistent with a total delivery estimate for food and beverage use of 10.150 million STRV (table 8). That would imply an additional 168,600 STRV of direct consumption imports for the remainder of the fiscal year. Another analytical approach suggests that an additional 266,600 STRV of refined sugar could enter the United States before the end of the fiscal year. To date, ERS estimates that about 70 percent of refined sugar imports have been directly consumed. If that proportion held for the entire year, then remaining direct consumption imports would total 186,600 STRV. This amount is about 18,000 STRV above what the first analytical approach implied for a delivery estimate of 10.150 STRV.

Deliveries for food and beverage use for FY 2007 are projected at 10.250 million STRV, an increase of 100,000 STRV over the FY 2006 delivery estimate. The projection for the Sugar-Containing Product Re-export deliveries is 125,000 STRV, an increase of 50,000 over the FY 2006 estimate. The FY 2007 projections for deliveries for the manufacture of polyhydric alcohol and feed uses are 20,000 STRV for each, the same as the FY 2006 estimates.

Ending stocks are the difference between supply and use. For FY 2006, they are estimated at 1.436 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.76 percent. For FY 2007, ending stocks are projected at 869,323 STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 8.2 percent. Because FY 2007 TRQ imports were projected only at the commitment level required by the WTO, CAFTA-DR and NAFTA, less projected shortfall, it is possible that ending stocks will be projected higher after the USDA announces the FY 2007 TRQ for sugar.

11 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 7--Estimated U.S. sugar deliveries and sugar in traded sugar-containing products 1/ Fiscal year Population Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-June July-Sept FY total Per capita 1,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) pounds (refined value) Domestic sugar deliveries for food and beverage use 1995 270.4 2,260 2,105 2,311 2,542 9,218 63.7 1996 273.5 2,379 2,191 2,355 2,519 9,445 64.6 1997 276.7 2,430 2,143 2,401 2,591 9,565 64.6 1998 279.9 2,443 2,233 2,428 2,568 9,672 64.6 1999 283.1 2,458 2,208 2,553 2,655 9,873 65.2 2000 286.0 2,580 2,318 2,484 2,611 9,993 65.3 2001 288.9 2,564 2,370 2,486 2,580 10,000 64.7 2002 291.8 2,474 2,227 2,439 2,645 9,785 62.7 2003 294.7 2,497 2,183 2,360 2,464 9,504 60.3 2004 297.6 2,504 2,286 2,368 2,520 9,678 60.8 2005 299.6 2,547 2,335 2,471 2,666 10,019 62.5 2006 302.3 2,566 2,481 Estimated sugar in imported sugar-containing products 1995 -- 79 83 92 100 354 -- 1996 -- 99 85 95 110 389 -- 1997 -- 112 100 119 128 459 -- 1998 -- 125 115 138 151 529 -- 1999 -- 140 140 163 177 620 -- 2000 -- 173 162 177 191 704 -- 2001 -- 185 174 195 216 769 -- 2002 -- 215 192 223 250 879 -- 2003 -- 236 226 256 284 1,002 -- 2004 -- 266 251 288 315 1,119 -- 2005 291 277 298 340 1,205 -- 2006 322 313 Estimated sugar in exported sugar-containing products 1995 -- 68 74 78 91 311 -- 1996 -- 97 85 90 103 376 -- 1997 -- 103 98 102 108 411 -- 1998 -- 109 91 98 103 401 -- 1999 -- 106 96 99 109 409 -- 2000 -- 116 104 107 128 456 -- 2001 -- 134 115 129 130 508 -- 2002 -- 130 112 118 125 485 -- 2003 -- 138 123 130 140 531 -- 2004 -- 150 137 140 148 575 -- 2005 152 142 160 143 598 -- 2006 155 143 Estimated sugar in USDA sugar-containing product re-export program 1995 -- 28 18 18 39 103 -- 1996 -- 21 20 30 32 104 -- 1997 -- 22 68 22 45 157 -- 1998 -- 21 24 32 46 123 -- 1999 -- 44 58 35 32 169 -- 2000 -- 21 21 22 22 86 -- 2001 -- 18 21 29 30 98 -- 2002 -- 40 39 35 42 156 -- 2003 -- 43 44 49 47 183 -- 2004 -- 35 28 40 39 142 -- 2005 -- 28 24 37 33 121 -- 2006 -- 25 17 -- Estimated sugar deliveries for domestic consumption (adjusted for trade in sugar-containing products) 1995 -- 2,299 2,132 2,343 2,590 9,364 64.7 1996 -- 2,402 2,211 2,390 2,558 9,561 65.4 1997 -- 2,461 2,213 2,439 2,656 9,770 66.0 1998 -- 2,480 2,281 2,500 2,662 9,923 66.3 1999 -- 2,536 2,311 2,651 2,755 10,253 67.7 2000 -- 2,658 2,396 2,576 2,697 10,328 67.5 2001 -- 2,632 2,450 2,580 2,697 10,359 67.0 2002 -- 2,599 2,346 2,580 2,811 10,335 66.2 2003 -- 2,637 2,330 2,534 2,656 10,158 64.4 2004 -- 2,655 2,428 2,555 2,726 10,364 65.1 2005 -- 2,714 2,493 2,646 2,895 10,748 67.0 2006 -- 2,758 2,668 1/ Includes Puerto Rico. Source: "Sweetener Market Data ," FSA, USDA (deliveries data), ERS (sugar in traded products).

12 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure 2 Sugar deliveries by source, Oct.-Mar., FY 2004-2006 Short tons, raw value 6,000 Direct Cons. Imports Beet Proc. Cane Ref./Mills 5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Source: Sweetener Market Data , FSA, USDA.

Figure 3 Sugar deliveries by source, monthly, FY 2006 Short tons, raw value 500 450 Beet Proc. Cane Ref./Mills Direct Cons. Imports 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Source: Sweetener Market Data FSA, USDA.

13 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 8--ERS analysis of direct consumption imports Projection of needed direct consumption imports

Business of Buyer FY 2006 Deliveries Av.share: Projected FY 2006 Projected FY 2006 Less Product WASDE Direct Cons. Through March 1/ FY 2000-05 Deliveries Deliveries re-exports Delv. Est. Imports needed Actual wt, tons Proportion Actual wt, tons STRV STRV STRV STRV Bakery, Cereal, and Related Products 1,113,763 0.481 2,314,553 Confectionery and Related Products 535,093 0.491 1,089,137 Ice Cream and Dairy Products 270,285 0.467 578,893 Beverages 116,554 0.484 240,914 Canned, Bottled, and Frozen Foods 154,602 0.421 367,313 Multiple and All Other Food Uses 272,309 0.504 539,974 Non-Food Uses 71,292 0.486 146,752 Hotels, Restaurants, Institutions 53,330 0.458 116,466 Wholesale Grocerers, Jobbers, Dealers 1,099,540 0.500 2,199,520 Retail Grocerers, Chain Stores 636,100 0.500 1,272,200 Sales to Government Agencies 12,901 0.524 24,616 Sales For All Other Uses 78,363 0.458 170,986

Total 4,414,132 0.487 9,061,324 9,695,616 -75,000 10,150,000 529,384 Direct consumption imports (10/05-3/06) 360,792 Needed to enter (4/06-9/06) 168,592

Projection of refined sugar imports

Category Projected amount STRV Refined Tariff-rate quota 529,013 Refined NAFTA estimate 165,345 High-tier tariff (refined) 150,000

Sub-Total 844,358

Less Quantities Entered: Refined Tariff-rate quota (9/05-3/06) 2/ 419,869 High-tier tariff (10/05-3/06) 2/ 130,318 Shortfall 27,558

Projected refined sugar imports to enter 266,613 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA. 1/ "Sweetener Market Data ," FSA, USDA. 2/ U.S. Census Bureau.

14 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Prices

Although U.S. sugar prices continue to be higher than normal, there is a wide disparity in the various measures of those prices (fig. 4). The highest relative to last year is the Midwest refined beet sugar spot price, as reported in the Milling and Baking News. In April 2006 it averaged 36.38 cents per pound, compared with 23.80 cents in April 2005, for a 52.9-percent increase. Other measures of refined prices do not show as much growth. The April 2006 refined beet sugar producer price index (PPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is 27.7 percent higher than the same month last year, and the refined cane sugar price is 29.3 percent higher. These indices are constructed from processor/refiner surveys which more accurately measure the return to processors and refiners than do spot prices. Most processor and refiner sales are based on forward contracts which mute the effect of product scarcity. Spot prices are generally reflective of a thinner market of sugar not sold forward, and hence, they react with greater volatility and amplitude.

Raw sugar prices are higher than last year, but not as much as refined sugar prices. The No. 14 nearby raw sugar futures price on the New York Board of Trade is 11.1 percent higher than 12 months ago, and the raw sugar PPI is 9.1 percent higher. Although domestic cane sugar production is down, imports have increased due to increases in the raw sugar TRQ. More decisive for raw sugar prices is the high price of raw sugar in the world market (fig. 5). Domestic prices have increased to attract imports whose alternative value in the world market is high due to reduced Brazilian sugar exports (more ethanol production, lower-than-expected cane crop), reduced prospects for European Union-25 exports (high world refined prices buoy up raw prices), and other factors.

Figure 4 April 2006 year-over-year change of sugar prices Ratio of April prices-2006 compared with 2005 1.6 1.529 1.5

1.4 1.293 1.3 1.277

1.2 1.111 1.091 1.101 1.087 1.1 1.037 1 PPI: raw PPI: refined PPI: beet NY no.14 M&B spot Retail sugar CPI: sugar CPI: sugar sugar cane sugar nearby - beet price and sweets and artificial raw sugar price, sweeteners Midwest Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milling and Baking News, NYBOT

15 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure 5 U.S. and world prices of raw sugar, by month, Jan. 2005-April 2006 Cents/lb 30

25 U.S. No. 14 NY nearby - raw sugar

20

15 World raw spot price

10

5 Jan.2005 Apr.2005 July 2005 Oct. 2005 Jan. 2006 Apr. 2006 Source: NYBOT.

Consumer sugar prices have increased, but not nearly as much as wholesale refined prices. The U.S. retail price for refined sugar in April was estimated at 48.00 cents per pound by BLS. This is 10.1 percent higher than in April 2005. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sugar and artificial sweeteners is 8.7 percent higher. The CPI for sugar and sweets, which includes sugar confectionery in addition to sugar, is even lower at 3.7 percent. CPIs of other sugar-containing products (table 17 in the appendix) show inconclusive effects of higher sugar prices.

16 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA U.S. Sweetener Demand

The Economic Research Service (ERS) makes calendar year estimates of total sweetener deliveries that are available for food and beverage consumption by U.S. consumers. These sweeteners include refined sugar; the corn sweeteners of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), glucose syrup, and dextrose; honey; and other edible syrups, including maple syrup and maple sugar.

U.S. deliveries of total sweeteners for human food and beverage use for 2005 is estimated at 21.090 million tons (table 9), representing 1.4 percent growth over deliveries in 2004. Refined sugar deliveries increased 3.7 percent from 2004, but corn sweetener deliveries for food and beverage use fell by 0.6 percent. Within the corn sweetener category, HFCS deliveries fell for the third year in a row. The decline in 2005 was slight, however, equal to 0.3 percent. Deliveries of the other corn sweeteners for human use fell in 2005: 1.4 percent for glucose syrup and 3.3 percent for dextrose. On the other hand, honey deliveries increased by 19.2 percent and other edible syrups increased slightly.

On a per capita basis, U.S. sweetener deliveries for 2005 were equal to 142.6 pounds, up 0.7 pounds from 2004, but still down 8.8 pounds from the per capita high, set in 1999, of 151.4 pounds.

Sugar contained in imported products has been excluded in estimating U.S. per capita sweetener deliveries. Prior to 1995, sugar contained in imports was pretty much offset by sugar contained in U.S. food exports, therefore indicating only a minor positive adjustment to total deliveries. Beginning in the 1995-96 period, sugar-containing product imports started increasing at a faster rate than U.S. sugar- containing product exports. The next-to-last column of table 9 shows the addition of sweetener supplies due to net imports of these products. The added amount has grown from 116,000 tons in 1996 to 662,000 tons in 2005. On a per capita basis, the sugar in net imported product added 4.5 pounds to total per capita sweetener availability in 2005, about the same as in 2004.

Including sweeteners from imported products in the delivery totals moderates the decline seen in sweetener deliveries since 1999. If these imports are disregarded, per capita sweetener availability is calculated to have decreased 5.8 percent since 1999. Including net sweetener product imports, the decline since 1999 is less, at 4.4 percent.

17 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 9--U.S. caloric sweeteners estimated deliveries for domestic food and beverage use, by calendar year 1/ Calendar U.S. population Refined Corn sweeteners Pure Edible Total Sugar from Total year 2/ sugar HFCS Glucose Dextrose Total honey syrups caloric net imports caloric (July 1) syrup sweeteners sweeteners with Millions sugar-containing products 1,000 tons, dry basis 1992 256.9 8,249 6,652 1,943 461 9,056 126 53 17,483 174 17,657 1993 260.3 8,305 7,086 2,050 481 9,617 135 56 18,112 183 18,295 1994 263.4 8,478 7,398 2,093 502 9,993 126 54 18,651 153 18,804 1995 266.6 8,652 7,676 2,176 528 10,380 120 57 19,209 121 19,331 1996 269.7 8,785 7,788 2,216 537 10,541 131 57 19,514 116 19,630 1997 272.9 8,861 8,240 2,364 511 11,116 129 58 20,163 197 20,360 1998 276.1 8,966 8,552 2,358 502 11,411 130 59 20,566 274 20,840 1999 279.3 9,264 8,897 2,281 488 11,666 147 60 21,138 354 21,492 2000 282.3 9,253 8,845 2,230 476 11,551 157 61 21,022 304 21,327 2001 285.0 9,195 8,920 2,205 469 11,595 134 61 20,986 388 21,373 2002 287.7 9,109 9,045 2,224 473 11,741 153 62 21,065 529 21,594 2003 290.3 8,859 8,849 2,209 449 11,507 146 63 20,575 621 21,196 2004 293.0 9,045 8,779 2,292 487 11,558 130 64 20,797 656 21,453 2005 295.7 9,381 8,756 2,261 471 11,487 155 66 21,090 662 21,752 Pounds, dry basis 1992 256.9 64.2 51.8 15.1 3.6 70.5 1.0 0.4 136.1 1.4 137.5 1993 260.3 63.8 54.5 15.8 3.7 73.9 1.0 0.4 139.2 1.4 140.6 1994 263.4 64.4 56.2 15.9 3.8 75.9 1.0 0.4 141.6 1.2 142.8 1995 266.6 64.9 57.6 16.3 4.0 77.9 0.9 0.4 144.1 0.9 145.0 1996 269.7 65.2 57.8 16.4 4.0 78.2 1.0 0.4 144.7 0.9 145.6 1997 272.9 64.9 60.4 17.3 3.7 81.5 0.9 0.4 147.8 1.4 149.2 1998 276.1 64.9 61.9 17.1 3.6 82.7 0.9 0.4 149.0 2.0 150.9 1999 279.3 66.3 63.7 16.3 3.5 83.5 1.1 0.4 151.4 2.5 153.9 2000 282.3 65.5 62.7 15.8 3.4 81.8 1.1 0.4 148.9 2.2 151.1 2001 285.0 64.5 62.6 15.5 3.3 81.4 0.9 0.4 147.3 2.7 150.0 2002 287.7 63.3 62.9 15.5 3.3 81.6 1.1 0.4 146.5 3.7 150.1 2003 290.3 61.0 61.0 15.2 3.1 79.3 1.0 0.4 141.7 4.3 146.0 2004 293.0 61.7 59.9 15.6 3.3 78.9 0.9 0.4 141.9 4.5 146.4 2005 295.7 63.4 59.2 15.3 3.2 77.7 1.1 0.4 142.6 4.5 147.1 1/ Per capita deliveries of sweeteners by U.S. processors and refiners and direct-consumption imports to food manufacturers, retailers, and other end users represent the per capita supply of caloric sweeteners. The data exclude deliveries to manufacturers of alcoholic beverages. Actual human intake of caloric sweeteners is lower because of uneaten food, spoilage, and other losses. 2/ U.S. Census Bureau Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

18 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Mexican Sugar and HFCS

Production

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a revised estimate for 2005/06 Mexican sugar production, supply, and utilization on May 25, 2006 (table 10). Sugar production is estimated at 5.623 million metric tons, raw value (MTRV), 1 or 5.300 million tons, tel quel. (MTTQ) 1. Area harvested for sugarcane is projected The tel quel measure is the at about 657,000 hectares, approximately the same level as last year. Sugarcane actual weight of the sugar, production is estimated at 48.0 million metric tons (mt), implying sugarcane yield at unadjusted for differences in sugar polarity. 73.1 MTRV per hectare. Sugar recovery is projected at 11.71 percent, raw basis (or 11.04 percent, tel quel). For its part, Economic Research Service (ERS) analysis suggests that production will be between 5.46 and 5.70 million MTRV, with the midpoint at 5.578 million MTRV (or 5.260 million MTTQ).

The harvest began the week of November 13, 2005. The harvest was slow to progress, but by early March, it had caught up with last year’s pace (fig. 6). Figure 7 shows sugar production in tel quel terms for the 28th week of the harvest (the week of May 13), compared with previous years at the same period. As can be seen, sugar produced so far is the second highest amount compared with all previous years. Only last year’s total was higher.

The USDA forecast production in 2006/07 at 5.650 million MTRV. Area harvested is expected to be about the same as this year, but sugarcane yields are forecast higher to produce a forecast of sugarcane production at 50.0 million metric tons.

Consumption

The consumption of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) has continued its growth in Mexico. In 2005/06 it is estimated at 600,000 mt, dry basis, up from 335,000 mt last marketing year and 135,000 mt from 2 years ago. The HFCS consumption growth is due to more HFCS being consumed in the beverage industry where certain firms have received judicial waivers (amparos) exempting them from the consumption tax on beverages manufactured with HFCS. As a result, HFCS production in Mexico has been strong, with the two processing facilities producing at capacity -- about 400,000 of HFCS. Also, on September 30, 2005, Mexico’s Secretariat of the Economy (SE) granted access to the United States for a maximum of 250,000 mt, dry basis, of HFCS. (This decision followed the U.S. announcement that it had determined that Mexico is a “net surplus sugar producer” under the terms of the NAFTA for 2006 October/September marketing year.) In November 2005, the SE announced an import permit system under which the HFCS would enter. These permits, once issued, are valid through September 30, 2006.

Sugar consumption is estimated at 5.040 million MTRV, down 159,000 MTRV from last year. The decrease is attributable to increased HFCS consumption and better export opportunities this year of shipping sugar to the United States.

19 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 10--Mexico: sugar production and supply, and sugar and HFCS utilization Fiscal Year (Oct/Sept) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1/ 2007 1/ 1,000 Metric Tons

Beginning Stocks 1,587 1,403 1,055 991 941 1,063 1,548 1,172 1,194 1,237 2,045 1,874 Production 4,642 4,818 5,486 4,982 4,979 5,220 5,169 5,229 5,330 6,149 5,623 5,650 Imports 234 191 31 41 37 43 52 63 327 268 80 100

Supply 6,463 6,412 6,572 6,014 5,957 6,326 6,769 6,464 6,851 7,654 7,748 7,624

Disappearance Human consumption 4,343 4,301 4,391 4,422 4,445 4,481 5,004 5,097 5,380 5,199 5,040 5,141 Other Cons. 71 90 114 127 131 142 180 135 220 282 250 250 Total 4,414 4,391 4,505 4,549 4,576 4,623 5,184 5,232 5,600 5,481 5,290 5,391

Exports 646 966 1,076 524 318 155 413 38 14 128 584 595

Total Use 5,060 5,357 5,581 5,073 4,894 4,778 5,597 5,270 5,614 5,609 5,874 5,986

Ending Stocks 1,403 1,055 991 941 1,063 1,548 1,172 1,194 1,237 2,045 1,874 1,638

Stocks-to-Human Cons. 32.3 24.5 22.6 21.3 23.9 34.5 23.4 23.4 23.0 39.3 37.2 31.9 Stocks-to-Use 27.7 19.7 17.8 18.5 21.7 32.4 20.9 22.7 22.0 36.5 31.9 27.4 HFCS Cons. (dry weight) 2/ 116 402 409 480 580 600 263 130 135 355 600 600 Source: PSD database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA. 1/ Forecast. 2/ Economic Research Service, USDA.

20 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure 6 Intra-seasonal, cumulative sugar recovery rates in Mexico Percentage (sugar, tel quel/sugarcane)

12

11

10

9 2003/2004 8 2004/2005 7 2005/2006 6

5

4 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Source: Coaazucar. Campaign week

Figure 7 Sugar produced in Mexico through 28th week of the harvest Metric tons 6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0 1993/1994 1996/1997 1999/2000 2002/2003 2005/2006 Source: Coaazucar.

21 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

On a refined basis, total per capita sweetener consumption for the 2005/06 marketing year is estimated at 49.42 kilogram (kg), up 0.65 percent from last year. Next year ERS projects that per capita sweetener consumption will increase by 0.60 percent, a longer term average increase. How consumption will be split between sugar and HFCS is not known. For its part, the USDA has made a provisional HFCS forecast of 600,000 mt, dry basis, the same as this year. With that assumption, sugar consumption is projected at 5.141 million MTRV.

Remaining sugar disappearance is estimated at 250,000 MTRV for 2005/06. This same amount is projected for 2006/07, as well. This component is primarily sugar contained in products that are exported to other countries. It includes sugar deliveries that comprise the Mexican PITEX program. This program allows imported and domestically-produced sugar to be sold to domestic food manufacturers at levels close to the world price. The domestically-produced component of PITEX sugar is intended to replace sugar that normally would have to be imported by the food manufacturers. The manufacturers are required to export products that contain an equivalent amount of sugar within a 3-month period. The Mexican Government typically reports sugar delivered under the PITEX program as exported sugar, although this reporting procedure is not followed by the USDA.

Trade and Ending Stocks

The USDA estimates Mexican sugar exports in 2005/06 at 584,000 MTRV. All this sugar is destined for the U.S. market and is consistent with USDA’s accounting of estimated imports in the May 2006 WASDE.

The USDA estimates Mexican sugar imports at 80,000 MTRV. This sugar is sourced from the United States and is meant primarily for the Mexican PITEX program. U.S. Census data indicates that the United States has exported 36,455 MTRV of sugar to Mexico from October 2005 through March 2006. With the Chalmette, Louisiana refinery back at or close to full capacity, it is expected that these exports will continue the rest of this year and next. The forecast for imports in 2006/07 is 100,000 MTRV.

Ending stocks for 2005/06 are estimated as a residual at 1.874 million MTRV, implying an ending stocks-to-consumption use ratio of 37.2 percent. Based on ERS/USDA analysis, it is assumed that optimal, desired stockholding is about 20.3 percent of consumption for the marketing year that ends in September. However, adjustments to desired stock holdings within a marketing year only occur on a partial basis, here assumed to be 50 percent. With these assumptions and other balance sheet projections, ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected at 1.638 million MTRV. For this to hold, 2006/07 exports would have to be projected at 595,000 MTRV.

Mexico Sugar Policy: Cane Decree and Deregulation

On January 14, 2005, the Secretariat of Agriculture (SAGARPA) announced the revocation of the “Cane Decree.” The Decree had been in effect since May 31, 1991 (although amended in July 1993). The Decree had formalized the idea that planting, cultivation, harvest, and sugarcane processing were in the public interest, and the Decree regulated relations between sugar mill owners and sugarcane producers.

22 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Most importantly, the Decree defined a system of owner payments for sugarcane in which the price of sugarcane was determined by a set formula and that sugarcane growers were entitled to 57 percent of the revenue from sugar sales, with no permitted adjustment to individual growers on the basis of the quality of the cane that they supply.

With the support of the sugarcane associations, the Mexican Congress in June 2005 created a new Sugar Law that included most of the principles the old sugar legislation used to regulate the sugar sector. As before, market influences on prices for sugarcane are limited, and payment for sugarcane is once again regulated by federal decrees. Although the Mexican Government and the sugar mill industry initially tried to prevent the new Sugar Law from taking effect, SAGARPA and an Agricultural Commission from the Congress agreed that the legislation would take effect but with some minor modifications. The amendments, however, have not been adopted by the Congress, and as a result, the Sugar Law faces an uncertain legal framework. Immediately before the start of the 2005/06 cane harvest, the Mexican Government had to install working groups to define and implement some of the institutions created by the new Sugar Law in order to start the harvest on time.

Tax on Beverages That Use High Fructose Corn Syrup

On January 1, 2002, Mexico imposed a 20-percent tax on beverages that use sweeteners other than cane sugar. The effect of the tax was immediate as beverage manufacturers abandoned HFCS for domestically produced cane sugar. U.S. exports of HFCS and crystalline fructose to Mexico fell from a pre-tax high of 188,516 metric tons, dry basis, in fiscal year (FY) 1997 to 6,294 mt in FY 2003 and 10,584 mt in FY 2004. Mexican import data showed a larger decrease: FY 1997 HFCS imports from the United States were recorded at 287,118 mt, in FY 2003 at 11,323 mt, and in FY 2004 at 8,672 mt. The Corn Refiners Association estimated that lost HFCS sales averaged $944 million a year since 2002.

On March 16, 2004, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that it had filed a case against Mexico in the WTO for its 20 percent tax on beverage sales. The WTO established a panel in July to make a determination on the case. The USTR maintained that the tax violated WTO provisions regarding national treatment: a product imported into a WTO member country cannot be subject to an internal tax above the level applied to like domestic products. Although the tax was applied in the use of domestically produced HFCS, it was not applied to cane sugar produced in Mexico. For its part, Mexico argued that WTO rules exempt efforts that are necessary to secure compliance of commitments made under the terms of the NAFTA. In this case, Mexico argued that the United States has barred low-duty access to Mexican sugar produced in excess of domestic consumption, contrary to the provisions of the NAFTA.

The WTO panel sided with the USTR position, stating specifically that the tax is contrary to WTO rules that prohibit higher taxes on imported products compared with domestically produced products that are similar or directly competitive. The panel also ruled that a WTO panel settlement is not the appropriate forum in which to resolve a NAFTA disagreement. Mexico appealed the panel decision; and in March 2006, the WTO Appellate Body upheld all the panel’s original decisions.

23 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Although the Mexican Government has indicated that Mexico will comply with the ruling, it is the Congress that will decide the issue. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Mexico City indicates that there is strong domestic pressure on the Congress to limit HFCS. The sugar industry reportedly favors restrictions because they find it hard to compete on pricing with HFCS. In any event, there are indications within the Mexican Government that U.S. exports of HFCS will eventually enter under Most Favored Nation (MFN) status as specified by actions undertaken by the Mexican Government in April 2002. At that time, the U.S. trading status with respect to sweeteners was reclassified from NAFTA preferential trading partner to WTO MFN status. The HFCS duties were set at 156 percent for HFCS-42 and 210 percent for HFCS-55.

Expropriation of Sugar Mills by the Mexican Government

In September 2001, the Mexican Government expropriated 27 out of 60 of Mexico’s functioning sugar mills. These mills had been owned by companies that faced large and largely unpayable debts. Nine of the mills were owned by the Grupo Azucarero Escorpion (CAZE) whose debt was estimated at least at US$878 million. Six mills were owned by Grupo Santos with a debt of US$200 million; six more were owned by Grupo Azucarero Mexico (GAM) with a debt of US$30 million; and four mills were owned by Grupo Machado with a debt of US$22 million. The two remaining mills were already under the government liquidation process.

Mexico’s Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) has since declared that the expropriation of the nation’s sugar mills was unconstitutional. Consequently the SCJ ordered SAGARPA to return the mills to their original owners. The ruling by the Supreme Court comes after an appeal was lodged by Grupo Machado. The court’s decision was based on the fact that the Mexican Government did not consult with the owners before expropriating the mills, thereby violating their civil rights. The SCJ also has stated the Government has not made the case that there was a public necessity to take control of the mills. SAGARPA has said the Government will comply with the determination of the Court upon receipt of an official SCJ notification.

24 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA EU-25 Sugar Policy

EU Sugar Reform Adjustments

1 European Union (EU-25) sugar reform has prompted rapid movement on many For description of Eu-25 reform, fronts .1 EU-25 sugar processors have faced significant adjustments: firms in Ireland see January 2006 Sugar and and Latvia have dropped out of sugar processing entirely, while a huge firm Sweetener Outlook, SSS-245, pp (Eurosugar) has been formed from the merger of three companies -- Nordzucker 24-36, (Germany), Cristal Union (France), and ED&F Man of the United Kingdom (UK). http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/re ports/erssor/specialty/sss- This new firm would control from 15-20 percent of refined sugar production in the bb/2006/sss245.pdf EU-25. By May 4, 2006, sugar tenders for export subsidies averaged €313/ metric ton (mt) and had exceeded one million mt. These licenses will not expire until August 31, which is 3 months past the expiration deadline recently affirmed by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Observers suggest that it is likely that the EU-25 will exceed its 1.27 million metric ton WTO limit on subsidized sugar. Although the EU-25 has cut the 2006 production quota by 2.5 million metric tons (13.6 percent) for one year in order to minimize surplus production, burdensome surpluses of sugar are likely to accumulate by the beginning of 2007 because imports are expected to be over 2 million tons. Future prospects are also clouded by the inability to trade EU-25 production quotas across borders within the EU-25 and a sugar import regime that is still restrictive. This would imply continued high-cost production in spite of recent reforms.

There is internal opposition to the sugar regime in the ranks of EU-25 confectioners who are calling for lower prices principally through the trading of EU-25 production quotas across borders. They and other sugar end user groups are concerned that their competitiveness will be reduced because they will not be able to rely on export subsidies on the sugar content of their products past 2013 even though they will continue to be forced to pay high prices for EU-25 sugar. Also, they are asking that sugar not be declared a sensitive product in the Doha Round of WTO agricultural negotiations so that less expensive imports can be made available to their industry.

At a recent conference in Europe, an influential veteran sugar analyst forecasted future EU-25 surplus production of sugar that will lead to further reform as nearly 50 percent of EU-25 sugar production could be in jeopardy after 2009 when sugar imports from the Everything-but-Arms (EBA) countries face a sugar tariff equal to zero. The recent mergers would seem to indicate a move on the part of sugar processors to consolidate their marketing and political power in member states in order to continue long term profitability.

25 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Honey

U.S. honey production declined in 2005 after increasing in 2004. The 5-percent decline from 2004, or 9 million pounds, was largely due to fewer honey-producing bee colonies. The 2.4 million colonies in 2005 were 6 percent less than in 2004, or 146,000 fewer colonies. Although honey yield per colony increased 1 percent to 72.5 pounds in 2005, this was not enough to offset the drop in colony population.

The persistent menace of “vampire” mites, or the varroa destructor, that decimates the bee population during the winter months is largely responsible for the trend decline in the number of colonies, yield, and production over the past decade in the United States. Nevertheless, honey producers in North Dakota and California have managed to boost production in 2005 as their colony population and yield grew. Honey production in these two States represented 37 percent of total U.S. honey sales in 2005. A majority of the other major producer States, however, experienced both fewer colonies and lower yields in 2005.

The production difficulties that domestic honey producers have faced over the past few years were exacerbated by significant price cuts in 2004 and 2005. Honey prices fell from $1.40 per pound on average in 2003 to $1.07 in 2004 and to 90 cents in 2005. An important factor behind these lower prices is the growth in imported honey—up 13 percent in 2004-05 and 30 percent thus far in 2005-06, using June to May as the marketing year.

As a result of lower honey prices and production, the value of the U.S. honey crop declined another 20 percent in 2005, following an identical drop in 2004. Only California among the top honey-producing States raised production value as yield- induced production gains more than offset lower prices. The average value of honey produced by each colony in the United States was $65.50 in 2005, down 15 percent from $76.80 in 2004 and $97.40 in 2003. In addition to competition from cheaper imports, these smaller earnings per colony are another factor discouraging domestic producers from boosting honey production.

Besides lower honey prices, an additional benefit to U.S. consumers from more imported honey is increased supply and consumption. Per capita U.S. consumption of honey in 2004 grew from 0.9 to 1.1 pounds (sugar solid content basis) in 2005, an 18-percent gain. In terms of value at wholesale, total domestic consumption of honey in 2005 was $274 million, which is down 11 percent from 2004. Per capita, this amount translates to 92 cents, down from $1.05 in 2004.

The volume of imported honey is projected to expand by 30 percent in 2005-06 (June to May), induced by lower U.S. production. The average price of imported honey in 2005-06 is expected at less than 50 cents per pound, or half of the average import price in 2003-04 and about half domestic honey prices. Higher imports from Argentina, Vietnam, China, and India in recent years have helped raise the share of imports in U.S. honey consumption to about 50 percent in recent years, up from 20 percent in 2001-02. The total value of imported honey in 2005-06 will be around $124 million, down $5 million due to lower prices. By contrast, only 3 percent of U.S.-produced honey is exported, valued at $6.3 million in 2005-06.

26 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Maple Syrup

Maple syrup production in the United States declined by 265,000 gallons in 2005 to 1.24 million gallons, 18 percent lower than in 2004. All producer States except Pennsylvania had lower production volumes due to reduced yields per tap. Michigan and Wisconsin in the Midwest and New Hampshire in New England all experienced more than 30 percent drops in average yield per tap. Weather conditions were less than ideal for sap flow in most U.S. regions in 2005. Thus, despite the increased number of taps, cold days delayed and reduced sap flow. The length of the tapping season was only 24 days in 2005, compared with 30 days on average in 2004. Nevertheless, sugar content of the sap was higher in 2005—40 gallons of sap produced a gallon of syrup—compared with 42 gallons in 2004.

Despite 4-percent higher maple syrup production in Canada, which supplies 80 percent of U.S. maple syrup sales, syrup prices in Canada were up 12 percent on average in 2005. Canadian syrup prices are higher due, in part, to 5 percent more syrup imports by the United States where supplies were reduced by less sap flow. In addition, higher quality syrup produced in Quebec in 2005, representing 93 percent of Canadian production, was accorded a higher value. Canada’s syrup price hike is projected to raise U.S. syrup prices by a similar rate of 12 percent from $28.40 per gallon in 2004 to $32 in 2005. As a result, the value of U.S. maple syrup production in 2005 is estimated at $40 million, which is 7 percent lower than in 2004. Thus, higher prices are unable to offset lower domestic production enough to raise its value.

Overall, the U.S. supply of maple syrup in 2005 was down 1 percent in volume but up 7 percent in value due to greater imports from Canada. U.S. syrup imports from Canada amounted to 4.9 million gallons, valued at $98 million, which is up 14 percent from 2004. Consumption of maple syrup in the United States is expected down 5 percent to 6.1 ounces per household in 2005, from 6.4 ounces in 2004. On average, each household’s consumption of maple syrup is worth $1.16 at wholesale value in 2005. The import share of consumption volume reached a record 94 percent, up from 86 percent in 2004. If consumption directly reflects demand, U.S. demand for maple syrup was down 4 percent in 2005. Per-household consumption, however, is still 45 percent higher than in 1993 when syrup prices were 30 percent lower.

27 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Mexico Overview

Mexico has been a significant producer, consumer, and exporter of sugar. Figure M1 shows trends and relationships between these variables since 1960. Sugar production has been steadily growing since 1960. Yearly production growth averaged 66,000 metric tons (mt) from 1960-74, and it averaged 81,000 mt per year from 1975-89. Since 1990, average yearly growth has grown even more – 115,000 mt per year.

Sweetener consumption growth has been strong since 1960. The growth was especially robust from 1960 to 1980. Between 1960 and 1964 per capita consumption averaged 27.54 kg per year. During the next 5-year interval it rose to 31.29 kg and then to 35.15 kg during 1970-74. Since 1990, the average per capita rate has been at about 45 kg and above per year. Starting in 1997 consumption of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) has advanced and replaced sugar on a one-to-one basis, especially in carbonated beverages. Average HFCS consumption grew from 4 kg in 1997 to just under 6 kg in 2002. Although Mexican Government policy actions have limited HFCS consumption growth since 2002, the 2006 HFCS per capita level is projected at over 5 kg.

Mexico’s sugar exports averaged just below 500,000 mt from 1960 to 1976. Exports fell off as consumption growth outpaced production growth from 1977 to around 1995. Since 1995 sugar productivity has increased--spurring production, and HFCS has cut into sugar consumption, making more sugar available for export. Future export potential is dependent on both these trends.

Sugar Production in Mexico

Over the last 6 years, sugarcane area harvested has averaged just short of 620,000 hectares (table M1). This area is about 50 percent more than the equivalent sugarcane area in the United States. Sugarcane production has averaged 44.964

Figure M-1 Sugar and HFCS in Mexico--production, human consumption, and exports, 1960-2005 1,000 MTRV 7,000

6,000 Production

5,000

4,000

3,000 HFCS consumption 2,000 Human consumption Exports 1,000

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: PSD database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA.

28 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

million mt, and sugar has averaged 5.038 million mt. Sugar yield is calculated at 8.15 mt per hectare. Converting to raw value terms, the sugar yield is 8.64 metric ton, raw value (MTRV) per hectare, which is about 94 percent of the corresponding U.S. cane sugar yield. Of total area harvested in 2003/04, 39.2 percent of sugarcane area is irrigated (table M2). In the United States, the comparable irrigated cane area is 50.8 percent (most U.S. area except that in Louisiana), and comparable beet area is 34.5 percent (U.S. Western States).

There are 58 sugarcane mills in Mexico that produce sugar from November through May/June.Two main types of sugar are produced in Mexico (table M3). The largest, comprising about two-thirds of production, is a high polarity raw sugar called estandar. The other is refinado sugar which is produced at 14 of the mills. (Unlike the United States, there is no independent sugar refining industry -- sugar enters the market straight from the mill.) In Mexico, sugar statistics are usually reported in terms of actual weight, referred to as tel quel, or sometimes converted in an estandar basis. This custom contrasts with that of the United States, where sugar is measured in terms of raw value.

In 2003/04 there were 157,918 farms producing sugarcane (table M4). The average size of a sugarcane farm was small at 3.88 hectares. In the United States, average sugarcane farm size would be 415 hectares, and average sugarbeet farm size would be 110 hectares. Figure M2 shows the proportion of sugarcane farms by area size. As can be seen, almost 43 percent of all farms were below 2 hectares, and 78 percent were below 5 hectares. Figure M3 shows sugarcane area proportions by farm size classification. Farms below 2 hectares produce about 15 percent of national production, and farms below 5 acres produce about 46 percent of the production. Farms larger than 15 hectares, although small in number (2.2 percent of the total) produce 16.5 percent of production.

Sugar is produced in six regions in Mexico (fig. M4). The largest producing area is the Gulf region. There are 25 factories--most are located in the State of Veracruz but there are three in Oaxaca and four in Tabasco. Production over the last 6 years has averaged 2.182 million mt (table M1), or 42 percent of national production (fig. M5). Factories in this region supply about 57 percent of all refined sugar. Farm size is right at the national average, and only 14.5 percent of area is irrigated. Sugarcane mills in the Gulf produced 61 percent of all ethanol in Mexico–36.4 million liters out of 59.3 million liters nationally. All ethanol was produced from molasses.

The second largest producing area is the Pacific region, where about 22 percent of sugar is produced. There are 12 factories currently in operation–six in Jalisco, three in Michoacan, two in Nayarit, and one in Colima. Farm size is below the average (3.05 hectares), but about 65 percent of all area is irrigated. Because of the irrigation, sugarcane yields are higher than the national average (86.1 mt per hectare versus 74.2 mt per hectare).

The third largest area is the Northeast region. There are eight factories: four in San Luis Potosi, two in Tamaulipas, and two in northern Veracruz. About 56 percent of all area is irrigated but sugarcane yields are close in value to those in the Gulf region. In the South region, five factories are scattered across four States: Chiapas (2), Campeche, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Tabasco. Irrigated area is less the national average. Although the Central region only supplies about 7 percent of national production, sugarcane yields are very high at 113.8 mt per hectare, mainly 29 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table M-1--Mexico: Sugarcane, area harvested, sugar, by region, 2000-2005 Average Region/No. of mills 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000-05 Central - 4 Cane harvested Tons 2,870,257 2,731,800 2,887,668 2,705,484 3,026,327 3,229,706 2,908,540 Area harvested Has. 26,091 24,299 26,723 25,280 26,589 27,665 26,108 Cane yield Tn/ha 110.01 112.42 108.06 107.02 113.82 116.74 111.40 Sugar production Tons 338,786 315,847 334,042 321,786 360,356 393,861 344,113 Sugar yield Tn/ha 12.98 13.00 12.50 12.73 13.55 14.24 13.18

Gulf - 25 Cane harvested Tons 18,471,494 19,917,358 18,544,866 18,497,910 19,741,735 22,292,107 18,577,578 Area harvested Has. 281,259 273,682 278,842 275,238 289,470 304,295 283,798 Cane yield Tn/ha 65.67 72.78 66.51 67.21 68.20 73.26 68.98 Sugar production Tons 2,045,583 2,191,153 2,127,733 2,053,115 2,177,328 2,498,047 2,182,160 Sugar yield Tn/ha 7.27 8.01 7.63 7.46 7.52 8.21 7.69

Northeast - 8 Cane harvested Tons 6,665,243 6,879,874 7,188,924 7,400,104 7,253,412 9,542,032 7,488,265 Area harvested Has. 118,549 116,883 123,128 120,427 104,662 127,991 118,607 Cane yield Tn/ha 56.22 58.86 58.39 61.45 69.30 74.55 63.14 Sugar production Tons 767,272 747,466 828,146 826,038 772,141 1,070,114 835,196 Sugar yield Tn/ha 6.47 6.39 6.73 6.86 7.38 8.36 7.04

Northwest - 3 Cane harvested Tons 1,951,370 2,133,959 1,662,767 1,913,564 1,769,732 1,257,460 1,781,475 Area harvested Has. 23,048 22,256 19,894 22,101 23,246 22,688 22,206 Cane yield Tn/ha 84.67 95.88 83.58 86.58 76.13 55.42 80.23 Sugar production Tons 173,662 194,280 151,674 183,647 163,684 112,623 163,262 Sugar yield Tn/ha 7.53 8.73 7.62 8.31 7.04 4.96 7.35

Pacific - 12 Cane harvested Tons 8,519,992 8,964,461 8,530,275 9,240,574 9,491,642 10,232,129 9,163,179 Area harvested Has. 116,842 110,559 106,392 106,422 110,209 113,635 110,677 Cane yield Tn/ha 72.92 81.08 80.18 86.83 86.12 90.04 82.79 Sugar production Tons 971,435 1,071,287 1,006,570 1,103,376 1,114,910 1,237,508 1,084,181 Sugar yield Tn/ha 8.31 9.69 9.46 10.37 10.12 10.89 9.80

South - 6 Cane harvested Tons 3,622,679 3,851,204 4,089,140 4,190,601 4,178,994 4,339,209 4,045,305 Area harvested Has. 53,551 54,840 55,139 57,639 58,178 60,141 56,581 Cane yield Tn/ha 67.65 70.23 74.16 72.70 71.83 72.15 71.50 Sugar production Tons 399,296 403,596 424,228 439,613 435,657 473,021 429,235 Sugar yield Tn/ha 7.46 7.36 7.69 7.63 7.49 7.87 7.59

Mexico - 58 Cane harvested Tons 42,101,035 44,478,656 42,903,640 43,948,237 45,461,842 50,892,643 44,964,342 Area harvested Has. 619,340 602,519 610,118 607,107 612,354 656,415 617,976 Cane yield Tn/ha 67.98 73.82 70.32 72.39 74.24 77.53 72.76 Sugar production Tons 4,696,034 4,923,629 4,872,393 4,927,575 5,024,076 5,785,174 5,038,147 Sugar yield Tn/ha 7.58 8.17 7.99 8.12 8.20 8.81 8.15 Source: Coaazucar.

30 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table-M-2--Mexico: Irrigated and non-irrigated sugarcane area, by region, 2003/04 No. of ------Irrigated ------Non-irrigated ------Total ------Region Mills Hectares Tons Ton/ha Hectares Tons Ton/ha Hectares Tons Ton/ha

Central 4 26,589 3,026,327 113.82 0 0 -- 26,589 3,026,327 113.82

Gulf 25 41,962 3,853,589 91.84 247,508 15,888,146 64.19 289,470 19,741,735 68.20

Northeast 8 58,399 4,321,087 73.99 46,263 2,932,325 63.38 104,662 7,253,412 69.30

Northwest 3 23,246 1,769,732 76.13 0 0 -- 23,246 1,769,732 76.13

Pacific 12 71,421 6,624,990 92.76 38,788 2,861,059 73.76 110,209 9,486,049 86.07

South 6 18,179 1,606,039 88.35 40,005 2,572,955 64.32 58,184 4,178,994 71.82

Mexico 58 239,796 21,201,764 88.42 372,564 24,254,485 65.10 612,360 45,456,249 74.23 Source: Coaazucar.

Table M-3--Mexico: Sugarcane, sugar by type, molasses, and ethanol production, by region and form of ownership, 2004/05 Region Sugarcane Molasses yield Molasses for Ethanol yield production Sugar Refined Estandar Mascabad Molasses per cane tonnage ethanol Ethanol (molasses) ------metric tons------kg/mt------mt------liters------liter/mt Central 3,229,706 393,861 135,740 258,121 0 123,643 38.3 1,565 302,087 193.0 Gulf 22,292,107 2,509,312 1,102,243 1,406,193 875 802,273 36.0 164,167 36,370,256 221.5 Northeast 9,542,032 1,070,114 314,211 755,903 0 350,874 36.8 43,198 9,839,996 227.8

Northwest 1,257,460 112,623 48,127 64,496 0 47,821 38.0 0 0 0.0

Pacific 10,232,129 1,237,508 342,695 894,812 0 405,107 39.6 23,961 5,437,342 226.9 South 4,339,209 473,021 0 472,030 1,007 164,579 37.9 37,115 7,366,965 198.5 Mexico 50,892,643 5,796,439 1,943,016 3,851,555 1,882 1,894,297 37.2 270,006 59,316,646 219.7 Source: Coaazucar.

Table M-4--Mexico: Farm and size distribution by area, by region, 2003/04 No. of 0 < 2 ha 2 < 5 ha 5 < 10 ha 10 < 15 ha > 15 ha Total Region Mills farms hectares farms hectares farms hectares farms hectares farms hectares farms hectares Central 4 12,839 15,536 2,499 7,458 339 2,166 42 481 36 948 15,755 26,589 Gulf 25 30,394 41,401 28,107 94,257 12,248 82,607 2,362 28,160 1,539 43,045 74,650 289,470 Northeast 8 2,932 3,974 6,155 20,796 5,141 34,758 975 11,018 1,140 34,116 16,343 104,662 Northwest 3 283 421 1,222 4,834 1,509 11,586 200 2,224 67 4,181 3,281 23,246 Pacific 12 16,663 21,433 14,647 49,417 4,254 27,834 435 5,338 190 6,187 36,189 110,209 South 6 4,154 6,460 4,258 14,911 2,226 16,887 605 7,498 457 12,428 11,700 58,184 Mexico 58 67,265 89,225 56,888 191,673 25,717 175,838 4,619 54,719 3,429 100,905 157,918 612,360 Source: Coaazucar.

31 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure M4

Figure M5

Average level and share of regional sugar production in Mexico, 2000-2006

South Central 429,235 344,113 9% 7% Pacific 1,084,181 22% Northwest Gulf 163,262 2,182,160 3% 42% Northeast 835,196 17%

Source: Coaazucar.

32 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

because all area is irrigated. The Central region comprises four factories in Puebla (2) and Morelos (2). Average farm size is smallest of all regions – 1.69 hectares. The remaining region is the Northwest, with three factories in Sinoloa. All area is irrigated, and average farm size is the largest of all regions at 7. 09 hectares, but sugarcane yields are only around the national average.

Table M5 shows regional and national sugarcane costs of production and net returns from growing sugarcane. Total costs per hectare are spread out across the regions, with the lowest costs in the Gulf and the highest in the Central region. Certainly the degree of irrigation is a major factor in regional cost differentiation. Net returns are shown in the last set of columns and are also illustrated in figure M6. In spite of the high per-hectare cost, the Central region has the highest net return, as one might expect with their very high sugarcane yields. Returns are good in all regions except the Northwest area. There cultivation costs are much higher than any other region, with little to show regarding high sugarcane yields.

Production, Management, and Sugar Policy

Since the early 1990s Mexico’s “Cane Decree” has formally identified the nation’s sugarcane sector as one of national importance. The Decree was put into effect in May. The Decree formalized the idea that the planting, cultivation, harvest, and sugarcane processing were in the public interest. The Decree has regulated relations between sugar mill owners and sugarcane producers. Most importantly, the Decree has defined a system of owner payments for sugarcane in which the price of sugarcane was determined by a set formula and that sugarcane growers were entitled to 57 percent of the revenue from sugar sales, with no permitted adjustment to individual growers on the basis of the quality of the cane that they supply. Although the Mexican Government tried to invalidate the Decree in 2005, the Mexican Congress created a new Sugar Law that included most of the principles the old sugar legislation used to regulate the sugar sector.

Table M6 shows reference prices, the growers’ value of sugarcane, costs of production, and the return to national cane production. Returns are high and relatively constant in the range between 35- and 42-percent. Peso returns are more difficult to examine because the peso has not retained its value since 1992. The lower panel of the table shows real values denominated in calendar year (CY) 2000 pesos. Figure M7 shows the real sugar reference price and its real decline over time. Figure M8, on the other hand, shows the real unit value of sugarcane to the grower and its relatively constant value over time. Although the KARBE coefficient is the technical offset to the declining real price, the KARBE itself is not easily explained. Another way to view the effect of increased productivity in Mexican sugar production is to examine the trend in the amount of sugarcane necessary to produce one ton of sugar (fig. M9). As can be seen, the trend is clearly downward, indicating the increased productivity in the sector and the offset to real declining prices.

Sugar policy became even more explicit in September 2001 when the Mexican Government expropriated 27 out of 60 of Mexico’s functioning sugar mills. These mills had been owned by companies that faced large and largely unpayable debts. Nine of the mills were owned by the Grupo Azucarero Escorpion (CAZE) whose debt was estimated at US$878 million. Six mills were owned by Grupo Santos with a debt of US$200 million; six more were owned by Grupo Azucarero Mexico (GAM) with a debt of US$30 million; and four mills were owned by Grupo 33 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table M-5--Mexico: Sugarcane costs of production, revenue, and net return, by region, 2003/04 No. of Area Cultivation costs Harvest costs Total costs Revenue Net return Region Sector Mills (Ha) (Mil. Pesos) Pesos/ha (Mil. Pesos) Pesos/ha (Mil. Pesos) Pesos/ha Dollars/ha 1/ (Mil. Pesos) (Mil. Pesos) Pesos/ha Dollars/ha 1/ Central Total 4 26,589 222.4 8,366 376.0 14,142 598.5 22,508 1,999 1,129.9 531.4 19,987 1,776 Gulf Total 25 289,470 1,431.4 4,945 2,578.6 8,908 4,010.0 13,853 1,231 6,567.7 2,557.7 8,836 785 Northeast Total 8 104,662 803.9 7,681 857.6 8,194 1,661.5 15,875 1,410 2,619.3 957.7 9,151 813 Northwest Total 3 23,246 280.5 12,066 157.5 6,774 438.0 18,840 1,674 494.4 56.4 2,426 216 Pacific Total 12 110,209 908.3 8,241 1,059.4 9,613 1,967.7 17,854 1,586 3,402.6 1,435.0 13,021 1,157 South Total 6 58,184 332.0 5,707 472.7 8,125 804.8 13,831 1,229 1,308.4 503.7 8,656 769 Mexico Total 58 612,360 3,979 6,497 5,501.9 8,985 9,480.4 15,482 1,375 15,522.3 6,041.9 9,867 876 Source: Coaazucar. 1/ Exchange rate (Pesos/Dollar)=11.257.

Table M-6--Determinants of returns to Mexican sugarcane producers Year Wholesale Reference Grower share Grower value Recoverable Grower value Cost of cane Return to cane Return to cane price index price of reference per ton sugar proportion sugarcane production production production - percent (2000=100) -peso/mt- price -peso/mt- 1/ (KARBE) 2/ ------Pesos per mt ------of cane value Nominal prices 1991/92 27.44 1,428 0.54 771 98.64 68.3 68.3 22.9 33.6 1992/93 29.78 1,567 0.54 846 108.54 68.3 68.3 38.5 56.4 1993/94 31.56 1,692 0.54 914 111.43 101.8 68.3 42.1 41.3 1994/95 40.12 1,945 0.55 1,070 113.44 121.4 68.3 53.1 43.7 1995/96 56.24 2,650 0.56 1,484 115.89 172.0 103.8 68.2 39.6 1996/97 67.65 3,339 0.57 1,903 113.85 216.7 128.6 88.1 40.7 1997/98 77.69 3,631 0.57 2,070 114.31 236.6 141.1 95.5 40.3 1998/99 90.66 3,739 0.57 2,131 114.06 243.1 161.3 81.8 33.7 1999/00 98.21 4,295 0.57 2,448 117.65 288.1 182.4 105.6 36.7 2000/01 104.15 4,428 0.57 2,524 118.18 298.3 184.9 113.4 38.0 2001/02 108.42 4,561 0.57 2,600 119.61 311.0 188.7 122.3 39.3 2002/03 116.70 4,767 0.57 2,717 119.51 324.7 203.1 121.6 37.4 2003/04 126.78 5,188 0.57 4/ 2,978 118.80 353.8 216.1 137.7 38.9 2004/05 134.20 5,760 0.57 3,283 119.76 393.2 NA NA NA Real calendar year 2000 pesos 1991/92 27.44 5,202 0.54 2,809 98.64 248.9 248.9 83.6 33.6 1992/93 29.78 5,263 0.54 2,842 108.54 229.4 229.4 129.4 56.4 1993/94 31.56 5,362 0.54 2,895 111.43 322.6 216.5 133.3 41.3 1994/95 40.12 4,849 0.55 2,667 113.44 302.5 170.3 132.3 43.7 1995/96 56.24 4,712 0.56 2,639 115.89 305.8 184.6 121.2 39.6 1996/97 67.65 4,936 0.57 2,814 113.85 320.3 190.1 130.3 40.7 1997/98 77.69 4,674 0.57 2,664 114.31 304.5 181.7 122.9 40.3 1998/99 90.66 4,124 0.57 2,351 114.06 268.1 177.9 90.3 33.7 1999/00 98.21 4,374 0.57 2,493 117.65 293.3 185.8 107.6 36.7 2000/01 104.15 4,252 0.57 2,424 118.18 286.4 177.6 108.9 38.0 2001/02 108.42 4,207 0.57 2,398 119.61 286.8 174.0 112.8 39.3 2002/03 116.70 4,084 0.57 2,328 119.51 278.2 174.0 104.2 37.4 2003/04 126.78 4,092 0.57 4/ 2,349 118.80 279.1 170.5 108.6 38.9 2004/05 134.20 4,292 0.57 2,447 119.76 293.0 NA NA NA Source: Coaazucar. 1/ Grower value of sugar = (grower share of reference price)*(reference price) 2/ KARBE = kilograma de azucar recuperable base estandar 3/ Grower value sugarcane= .001*KARBE*(grower value of sugar) 4/ Plus an additional 21.07 (nominal) pesos per metric ton of sugar for the 2003/04 season NA = not available

34 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure M-6 Mexico sugarcane revenue and costs, per hectare, by region, 2003/04 Dollars per hectare 4,000

3,500 Revenue above costs Harvest cost 3,000 Cultivation cost 2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 Central Gulf Northeast Northwest Pacific South Exchange rate = 11.257peso/dollar Source: Coaazucar.

Figure M-7 Real sugar reference price in Mexico CY 2000 pesos/mt 5,500 5,300 5,100 4,900 4,700 Trend 4,500 4,300 4,100 Price 3,900 3,700 3,500 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 Source: Coaazucar.

35 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure M-8

Real unit value of sugarcane to the grower in Mexico CY 2000 real pesos/mt 340

320 Grower value 300

280 Linear (grower value) 260

240

220

200 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04

Source: Coaazucar.

Figure M-9 Mexico: Tonnage of sugarcane needed to produce 1 ton of sugar, 1987-2005 Metric tons 11.500

11.000

10.500 Trend 10.000

9.500 y = -0.1184x + 10.835

9.000

8.500

8.000 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: Coaazucar.

36 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Machado with a debt of US$22 million. The two remaining mills were already under the government liquidation process.

Mexico’s Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) has since declared that the expropriation of the nation’s sugar mills was unconstitutional. Consequently the SCJ ordered SAGARPA to return the mills to their original owners. The ruling by the Supreme Court comes after an appeal was lodged by Grupo Machado. The court’s decision was based on the fact that the Mexican Government did not consult with the owners before expropriating the mills, thereby violating their civil rights. The SCJ also has stated the government has not made the case that there was a public necessity to take control of the mills.

Sweetener Consumption in Mexico

Sweetener consumption in Mexico has been relatively high. Figure M10 shows per capita combined deliveries of sugar and HFCS in Mexico and the United States. On average, Mexican deliveries have been equal to about 85 percent of the corresponding U.S. per capita delivery amount. Although the availability of recent, detailed sugar delivery data in Mexico is unavailable, most deliveries (at least as high as 52 percent) are to industrial end users such as beverage, confectionery, and food processing manufacturers. Table M7 shows an Economic Research service (ERS) estimate of the percentage distribution of deliveries to industrial end users amongst various types of sugar-using manufacturers. A comparison with the average U.S. distribution percentages are shown alongside.

Prior to 2002, between 75- and 80-percent of all HFCS deliveries in Mexico went to the beverage industry. On January 1, 2002, Mexico imposed a 20-percent tax on beverages that use sweeteners other than cane sugar. The effect of the tax was immediate as beverage manufacturers abandoned HFCS for domestically produced cane sugar. HFCS consumption began to recover somewhat in 2005 as the result of Mexican Courts granting waivers to certain beverage manufacturers to use HFCS without paying the tax. Although the tax has been found to be in violation of World Trade Organization (WTO) trade rules, the future of HFCS consumption (and especially HFCS imports from the United States) are uncertain. A problem for the Mexican sugar industry is that without border protection, the cost of importing HFCS from the United States and Canada is less than the delivered cost of domestically produced sugar. Also, ERS estimates that the cost of producing HFCS in Mexico is at least 20-percent less than the cost there of producing refined sugar.

Figure M11 shows ERS estimates of sugar and HFCS deliveries to the food industry in Mexico. It is estimated that HFCS may constitute as much as 13 percent of total sweetener demand in this sector. Figure M12 shows ERS estimates of sugar and HFCS deliveries to the beverage industry. ERS estimates that HFCS constituted at least 25 percent of all sweetener use in 2001, before the beverage tax was imposed.

Sweetener Trade Policy and Prices

Under terms agreed to in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico and the United States have a comparable set of prohibitive over-quota tariffs on sugar imports from third parties. The tariff on raw sugar is set to 33.8 U.S. cents per kilogram, and 36.0 U.S. cents per kilogram for refined sugar. Mexico has certain preferential in-quota agreements with Central American countries that are 37 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure M-10 Per capita combined deliveries of sugar and HFCS in the United States and Mexico, 1971-2005 Kilograms 70

60 United States 50

40

30 Mexico

20

10

0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Table M-7--Average industrial sugar end user deliveries

Sector Mexico United States Percentage of all industrial deliveries Confectionery 10.9 22.9 Food processing 4.1 6.0 Bakery and Cereals 11.6 41.7 Beverages 59.1 3.8 Dairy 1.1 10.2 Other industrial uses 13.3 15.3 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

38 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure M-11 Mexico sweetener deliveries to food industry, 1992-2005 1,000 metric tons 1,200

1,000 Sugar

800

600

400

200 HFCS

0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Figure M-12 Mexico sweetener deliveries to beverage industry, 1992-2005 1,000 metric tons 1,800 1,600 1,400 Sugar 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 HFCS 200 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

39 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

operational only when Mexico is experiencing a sugar deficit. Mexico imports sugar for a re-export program it operates for products that must be re-exported within a 90-day period (PITEX program). This program also absorbs domestic production in excess of domestic needs. Mexico considers such deliveries the equivalent of exporting the sugar.

Apart from the beverage tax on sweeteners other than cane sugar, Mexico has instituted high Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs on HFCS. The HFCS duties are set at 156 percent for HFCS-42 and 210 percent for HFCS-55. In April 2002, Mexico unilaterally reclassified its sweeteners trading status with the United States from preferential trading partner status as defined in the NAFTA to MFN status.

Due to the various policies that the Mexican Government maintains, domestic sugar prices are typically much above world levels. The estandar price since 2000 has averaged 23.5 U.S. cents per pound, against 9.2 U.S. cents per pound for the world raw spot price. The refinado price since 2000 has averaged 26.9 U.S. cents per pound, against 11.2 U.S. cents per pound for the world spot white sugar in London. In fact, prices in Mexico since 2000 have averaged above comparable prices in the United States (fig. M13 for estandar/U.S. raw cane sugar, and fig. M14 for refinado/U.S. refined beet sugar).

40 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure M-13 Sugar prices: Mexico estandar and U.S. raw cane sugar, 1993-2006 Cents/lb 28 26 24 22 20 U.S. raw 18

16 Estandar 14 12 10 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: Servicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados SNIIM-ECONOMICA and NYBOT.

Figure M-14 Sugar prices: Mexico refinado and U.S. refined beet sugar, 1993-2006 Cents/lb 45

40 U.S. Refined 35

30

25

20 Refinado 15

10 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: Servicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados SNIIM-ECONOMICA and Milling and Baking News .

41 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Special Article

1 USDA’s Sugar Program Response in FY 2005 to Weather Disasters 1 The authors are Steve Cornell, Economist in the USDA increased the marketable supply of sugar in the U.S. at the end of FY 2005 Dairy & Sweeteners Analysis in response to a poor early sugar beet harvest in the Red River Valley and the Staff, and Daniel Colacicco, disabling of cane refineries near New Orleans by hurricane Katrina. These weather Group Director, Dairy & disasters occurred as the refined sugar prices were already increasing; and by the Sweeteners Analysis Group, end of FY 2005 prices had increased further. The Farm Service Agency examined Economic and Policy data collected monthly from sugarcane processors, sugar beet processors, and cane Analysis Staff, Farm Service Agency, U.S. Department of refiners, to estimate the quantity of sugar that entered the market in response to Agriculture. USDA’s increased market access. Although the disasters affected the FY 2006 domestic sugar market, this analysis only addresses USDA’s program actions in supplying the FY 2005 sugar market, which ended on September 30, 2005.

Beet processors in the Red River Valley notified their customers in early August 2005 that shipments would be rationed as growers saw field sugar beet losses due to excessive soil moisture. September 2005 refined beet sugar production was reduced an estimated 110,000 tons due to the poor crop.

Then, hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana on August 29th , causing the levee system protecting New Orleans to fail and shutting down operations at both cane sugar refiners in Louisiana. The Gramercy refinery was down only a week, while the Chalmette refinery did not resume refining sugar until mid-December 2005. The refinery closings reduced the September 2005 refined sugar supply by an estimated 50,000 – 100,000 tons.

USDA’s Response

USDA responded to these disasters by increasing the domestic sugar marketing allotments (see Table 1) and sugar imports under the tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) (see Table 2).

The marketing allotment increase immediately made refined beet sugar available for sale, as beet sugar sales had been restrained by the allotment program. On August 12, 2005, after the recognition of the Red River valley crop damage, USDA increased the FY 2005 OAQ by 250,000 STRV. On August 30th, USDA reacted to Katrina by increasing the OAQ again, by 225,000 STRV. Finally, on September 9th, the OAQ was increased in response to the extended damage by hurricane Katrina. The OAQ was increased 105,000 STRV, to release all deliverable refined beet sugar stocks into the market. These three FY 2005 OAQ increases resulted in a total beet allocation increase of 315,230 STRV.

USDA actions to increase refined cane sugar availability was a more complicated story. USDA anticipated that cane refiners would increase production in response to the poor early beet harvest. However, domestic raw cane sugar sales could not be affected by the allotment increase because the cane processors did not have enough raw sugar supply to meet the previous raw sugar allotment. USDA reassigned the surplus allotment to imports, as required by the allotment law. In mid-August 2005, USDA increased the FY 2005 raw sugar TRQ by 84,500 STRV

42 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

and the US Trade Representative reallocated the estimated raw sugar TRQ shortfall (58,873 STRV).

Then the Louisiana refineries were debilitated by Katrina. Two days after the hurricane hit, USDA announced that the previously announced FY 2006 refined cane sugar TRQ, 24,251 tons, would be permitted to be entered early. After the extensive refinery damage was realized on September 9th, USDA increased the FY 2006 refined TRQ by 75,000 STRV and again, permitted early entry. These announcements increased total access by 244,824 tons in FY 2005.

Methodology to Determine Supply Increases

The increased cane sugar availability to the US marketplace as the result of the TRQ increases is relatively easy to estimate. The Foreign Agriculture Service monitored TRQ sugar entries. However, the increased beet sugar availability resulting from the impacts of OAQ increases are much more difficult to measure. To determine how much additional sugar was delivered to the market, we compared each sugar beet processors’ actual ending of FY 2005 sugar deliveries to an estimate of company deliveries if the OAQ were not increased. These estimates were made using confidential company data submitted monthly to USDA on beginning stocks, sugar production, sales, deliveries, and ending stocks.

Beet processor’s deliveries are modeled as their marketing allocation, minus pre- sales, minus any unused allocation. Pre-sales are the quantity of sugar sold subject to the current year’s allotment, but will not be delivered until the following fiscal year. Thus, the change in sugar delivered to the market is the change in the company’s beet allocation, less its change in pre-sales, less its change in unused allotment.

ΔDeliveriesb = ΔOAQb – ΔPre-sales – ΔUnused OAQ

The change in beet sugar allocation is simply the end of FY 2005 beet sugar allocation minus the beginning FY 2005 beet sugar allocation, which was known for each company.

The change in pre-sales is the reported pre-sales at the end of FY 2005, minus an estimate of pre-sales had the OAQ not been increased. The estimate of pre-sales without an OAQ increase is based on a model of beet processor decision making behavior. We assume that beet processors will presell inventory they need to deliver at the start of the following fiscal year, if they have more allotment than sugar to deliver in the current fiscal year.

Beet processors have two objectives at the end of the fiscal year -- have sufficient inventory to cover October deliveries (pipeline), and fully utilize their allotment. A beet processor, in determining when to pre-sell sugar, will first take the difference between their available supply and their pipeline. This difference is the quantity the processor can deliver in August and September, while still preserving their pipeline. If the processor still has allotment remaining, they can choose to either let the allotment go unused, or pre-sell part of the pipeline. By pre-selling a portion of their pipeline, the processor can meet both objectives.

43 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

E(Pre-salest-1) = Remaining OAQb – (SupplyAug-Sep – E(Pipeline))

A processor’s available supply is July ending stocks plus August and September production. The pipeline is estimated as the lower of 1) actual September ending stocks or 2) actual October deliveries, using September 2004 and October 2005 data for each processor.

The change in unused beet OAQ is the reported sum of FY 2005 unused company allocations, less our estimate of the sum of unused beet company allocations, if the OAQ had not been increased. We assumed, given the tight market conditions before the OAQ increase, that each company would market all their allotment except a small portion left unsold to cover bookkeeping errors or miscalculations throughout the fiscal year – a buffer. For each company, we estimated the buffer as the lowest quantity of unused allocation at the end of a FY 2003 – FY 2005 marketing year.

Results

USDA actions permitted 560,054 STRV of additional sugar into the market in FY 2005, with 384,725 STRV actually entered. TRQ shortfalls, rail car/truck availability, and other logistical problems contributed to the 31 percent of the increase in market access that was not utilized (Tables 1 and 2).

Beet processors delivered 210,025 tons of the 315,230 ton allocation increase in FY 2005. For the sugar that was not delivered, processors either had no way to deliver their sugar, due to their overtaxed distribution systems, or they were down to their “pipeline” stocks, such as their bin bottoms or stocks needed by customers in early October. In many cases, processors sold the title to these stocks in September 2005, and those became part of the “pre-sales” in figure 1.

TRQ increases and early entries allowed 244,824 tons of additional access, with 71 percent, 174,700 tons, entering the US market. TRQ shortfalls resulted in 70,124 tons of unused access (Table 2).

Refined sugar losses of between 160,000 and 210,000 tons resulted from the FY 2005 disasters. In response, OAQ and TRQ actions brought an estimated 300,225 tons of refined sugar into the US market. Our estimate of refined sugar entering the market may be conservative because this analysis assumes the raw sugar entry of 84,500 tons was not refined until FY 2006. Historically high refined sugar prices from fourth quarter FY 2005 continued into FY 2006, indicating the market need for the increased supplies.

44 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 1--OAQ (Beet) Actions and Results FY 2005 Causes for allotment increase Beet allotment increase Delivered 1/ (STRV) 12-Aug. Red River Valley crop failure 135,875 90,528

30-Aug. Hurricane Katrina 122,288 81,475

9-Sep. Extended effects from Katrina 57,068 38,022

Total 315,230 210,025 1/ Pro-rated. Source: FSA, USDA.

Table 2--TRQ Actions FY 2005 Actions Access Entered

23-Aug. Raw TRQ increase and shortfall reallocation 143,373 84,500

12-Aug. Refined TRQ increase 2,200 2,200

30-Aug. 2006 Refined TRQ early entry 24,251 13,000

9-Sep. 2006 Refined TRQ increase, early entry 75,000 75,000

Total 244,824 174,700 Source: FAS, USDA.

Table 3--FY 2005 Estimated refined sugar loss (STRV) Refined production loss

Beet 110,000 Cane refiners 50,000-100,000 Total 160,000-210,000 Source: FSA, USDA.

45 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure 1.

Distribution of OAQ Increase - Beet

Pre-sales 80,320

Unused OAQ 24,885 Additional Deliveries 210,025

Total Increase = 315,230 STRV

Source: FSA, USDA.

Figure 2.

Additional Deliveries & Entries of Sugar, as a Result of OAQ & TRQ Changes

Refined 90,200

Additional Deliveries Resulting from OAQ TRQ Increase 210,025

Raw 84,500

Total = 384,725 STRV

Source: FSA, USDA.

46 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Figure 3.

Results of OAQ and TRQ Actions

Unused Access 175,329

Supply Increase 384,725

Total = 560,054 STRV

Source: FSA, USDA.

47 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Sugar Containing Products At-A-Glance

Estimated sugar contained in U.S. imports and exports of certain sugar-containing products (SCP), 1995-2005 Short tons 1,400,000

1,200,000 Sugar in SCP imports 1,000,000 Sugar in SCP exports 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Imports of sugar contained in certain sugar-containing products STRV 500,000

450,000 Sugar Confectionery 400,000 Cocoa and Cocoa Preparations Cereal and Bakers Preparations 350,000 Misc. Edible Preparations Bread, Pastry, Cakes, etc. 300,000 Carbonated Soft Drinks 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

48 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Sugar exported in products STRV 250,000 Sugar Confectionery Cocoa and Cocoa Preparations 200,000 Cereal and Bakers Preparations Misc. Edible Preparations Bread, Pastry, Cakes, etc. 150,000

100,000

50,000

0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Sugar in imported products, by source, calendar years, 1995-2005 STRV 500,000 450,000 Canada Mexico ROW 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

49 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Sugar imported in sugar confectionery Metric tons 200,000

180,000 Canada Mexico ROW 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005

Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Sugar imported in chocolate confectionery and other cocoa products Metric tons 160,000

140,000 Canada Mexico ROW

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

50 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Sugar imported in cereal and bakers' wares Metric tons 25,000

Canada Mexico ROW 20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005

Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Sugar imported in cereal, bread, cakes, and other baked goods Metric tons 80,000

70,000 Canada Mexico ROW

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005

Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

51 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Sugar imported in miscellaneous edible products

Metric tons 120,000

Canada Mexico ROW 100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Sugar imported in beverages Metric tons 50,000 45,000 Canada Mexico ROW 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CY1995 CY1997 CY1999 CY2001 CY2003 CY2005 Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

52 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 11--World refined sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 1/ Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. :Calendar Fiscal Cents per pound

1991 13.39 13.40 13.86 12.90 12.99 13.94 14.73 14.40 13.09 13.03 12.71 12.46 : 13.55 13.28 14.07 12.73 : 13.41 13.71 1992 12.18 11.92 12.19 12.54 12.89 13.41 13.41 12.96 12.29 11.94 11.68 11.26 : 12.10 12.95 12.89 11.63 : 12.39 12.67 1993 11.60 11.97 13.05 13.38 13.39 12.64 12.20 13.05 12.90 13.23 13.15 12.97 : 12.21 13.14 12.72 13.12 : 12.79 12.42 1994 13.14 14.11 15.46 14.92 15.77 16.05 15.54 15.62 15.42 15.46 17.77 18.65 : 14.24 15.58 15.53 17.29 : 15.66 14.62 1995 18.75 18.17 17.45 16.31 17.05 19.16 20.27 20.01 16.58 17.29 17.64 17.21 : 18.12 17.51 18.95 17.38 : 17.99 17.97 1996 17.36 17.90 18.14 18.02 17.79 18.00 16.99 16.81 15.74 14.87 14.09 13.95 : 17.80 17.94 16.51 14.30 : 16.64 17.41 1997 13.87 13.98 14.05 14.19 14.61 14.93 15.07 15.66 14.51 13.58 13.81 13.64 : 13.97 14.58 15.08 13.68 : 14.33 14.48 1998 13.52 12.78 12.23 11.63 12.00 11.80 11.65 11.62 10.05 10.00 10.78 10.97 : 12.84 11.81 11.11 10.58 : 11.59 12.36 1999 10.99 10.50 9.85 8.79 9.13 9.93 9.47 9.04 8.28 7.85 7.73 7.61 : 10.45 9.28 8.93 7.73 : 9.10 9.81 2000 7.70 7.67 7.83 8.66 9.06 10.63 11.38 11.29 11.74 11.76 11.02 10.95 : 7.73 9.45 11.47 11.24 : 9.97 9.10 2001 11.27 10.65 10.26 10.61 11.71 12.68 12.60 12.08 10.66 10.19 11.27 11.52 : 10.73 11.67 11.78 10.99 : 11.29 11.35 2002 11.88 10.80 10.81 10.09 10.28 10.02 10.23 10.33 9.68 9.72 10.16 10.25 : 11.16 10.13 10.08 10.04 : 10.35 10.59 2003 10.64 11.10 10.51 10.14 9.95 9.66 9.84 9.74 8.95 8.39 8.67 9.23 : 10.75 9.92 9.51 8.76 : 9.74 10.06 2004 9.16 9.54 10.59 11.19 10.78 10.73 11.81 11.80 11.12 11.21 11.27 11.23 : 9.76 10.90 11.58 11.24 : 10.87 10.25 2005 11.63 12.09 12.02 11.76 11.75 12.61 14.70 14.81 14.60 14.18 13.10 15.00 : 11.91 12.04 14.70 14.09 : 13.19 12.47 2006 16.92 19.99 20.45 21.35 19.12 1/ Contract No. 5, London Daily Price, for refined sugar, f.o.b. Europe, spot. Source: LIFFE, London.

Table 12--World raw sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 1/ Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. : Calendar Fiscal Cents per pound 1991 8.88 8.57 9.22 8.55 7.88 9.37 10.26 9.45 9.39 9.10 8.79 9.03 : 8.89 8.60 9.70 8.97 : 9.04 9.26 1992 8.43 8.06 8.22 9.53 9.62 10.52 10.30 9.78 9.28 8.66 8.54 8.15 : 8.24 9.89 9.79 8.45 : 9.09 9.22 1993 8.27 8.61 10.75 11.30 11.87 10.35 9.60 9.30 9.52 10.27 10.10 10.47 : 9.21 11.17 9.47 10.28 : 10.03 9.58 1994 10.29 10.80 11.71 11.10 11.79 12.04 11.73 12.05 12.62 12.75 13.88 14.76 : 10.93 11.64 12.13 13.80 : 12.13 11.25 1995 14.87 14.43 14.58 13.63 13.49 13.99 13.46 13.75 12.72 11.94 11.96 12.40 : 14.63 13.70 13.31 12.10 : 13.44 13.86 1996 12.57 12.97 13.07 12.43 11.94 12.54 12.83 12.33 11.87 11.65 11.29 11.38 : 12.87 12.30 12.34 11.44 : 12.24 12.40 1997 11.13 11.06 11.17 11.50 11.54 12.02 12.13 12.54 12.65 12.86 13.19 12.90 : 11.12 11.69 12.44 12.98 : 12.06 11.67 1998 11.71 11.06 10.66 10.27 10.17 9.33 9.70 9.50 8.21 8.24 8.73 8.59 : 11.14 9.92 9.14 8.52 : 9.68 10.80 1999 8.40 7.05 6.11 5.44 5.83 6.67 6.11 6.39 6.98 6.90 6.54 6.00 : 7.19 5.98 6.49 6.48 : 6.54 7.05 2000 5.64 5.51 5.54 6.48 7.33 8.72 10.18 11.14 10.35 10.96 10.02 10.23 : 5.56 7.51 10.56 10.40 : 8.51 7.53 2001 10.63 10.26 9.64 9.27 9.96 9.80 9.48 8.77 8.60 7.15 7.80 8.02 : 10.18 9.68 8.95 7.66 : 9.12 9.80 2002 7.96 6.81 7.27 7.12 7.33 7.07 8.02 7.86 8.54 8.84 8.87 8.81 : 7.35 7.17 8.14 8.84 : 7.88 7.58 2003 8.56 9.14 8.50 7.92 7.41 6.85 7.18 7.30 6.70 6.74 6.83 6.95 : 8.73 7.39 7.06 6.84 : 7.51 8.01 2004 6.42 7.01 8.23 8.21 8.08 8.41 9.19 8.99 9.10 9.84 9.65 10.19 : 7.22 8.23 9.09 9.89 : 8.61 7.85 2005 10.33 10.51 10.57 10.19 10.23 10.45 10.89 11.09 11.59 12.40 12.86 15.09 : 10.47 10.29 11.19 13.45 : 11.35 10.46 2006 17.27 18.93 18.01 18.21 18.07 1/ Contract No. 11-f.o.b. stowed Caribbean port, including Brazil, bulk spot price. 53 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 13--U.S. raw sugar price, duty fee paid, New York, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year 1/ Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. : Calendar Cents per pound

1991 21.86 21.42 21.46 21.23 21.29 21.42 21.25 21.83 22.06 21.76 21.75 21.50 : 21.58 21.31 21.71 21.67 : 21.57 1992 21.38 21.56 21.36 21.38 21.04 20.92 21.10 21.34 21.55 21.61 21.39 21.11 : 21.43 21.11 21.33 21.37 : 21.31 1993 20.76 21.16 21.56 21.76 21.36 21.42 21.89 21.85 21.97 21.80 21.87 22.00 : 21.16 21.51 21.90 21.89 : 21.62 1994 22.00 21.95 21.95 22.08 22.18 22.44 22.72 21.84 21.78 21.58 21.57 22.35 : 21.97 22.23 22.11 21.83 : 22.04 1995 22.65 22.69 22.46 22.76 23.10 23.09 24.47 23.18 23.21 22.67 22.60 22.63 : 22.60 22.98 23.62 22.63 : 22.96 1996 22.39 22.68 22.57 22.71 22.62 22.48 21.80 22.51 22.38 22.37 22.12 22.14 : 22.55 22.60 22.23 22.21 : 22.40 1997 21.88 22.07 21.81 21.79 21.70 21.62 22.04 22.21 22.30 22.27 21.90 21.93 : 21.92 21.70 22.18 22.03 : 21.96 1998 21.85 21.79 21.74 22.14 22.31 22.42 22.66 22.19 21.92 21.67 21.83 22.19 : 21.79 22.29 22.26 21.90 : 22.06 1999 22.41 22.38 22.55 22.57 22.65 22.61 22.61 21.24 20.10 19.50 17.45 17.87 : 22.45 22.61 21.32 18.27 : 21.16 2000 17.70 17.24 18.46 19.43 19.12 19.31 17.64 18.12 18.97 21.15 21.39 20.56 : 17.80 19.29 18.24 21.03 : 19.09 2001 20.81 21.18 21.40 21.51 21.19 21.04 20.64 21.10 20.87 20.90 21.19 21.43 : 21.13 21.25 20.87 21.17 : 21.11 2002 21.03 20.69 19.92 19.73 19.52 19.93 20.86 20.91 21.65 21.94 22.22 22.03 : 20.55 19.73 21.14 22.06 : 20.87 2003 21.62 21.91 22.14 21.87 21.80 21.62 21.32 21.26 21.34 20.92 20.91 20.37 : 21.89 21.76 21.31 20.73 : 21.42 2004 20.54 20.57 20.86 20.88 20.69 20.03 20.14 20.10 20.47 20.31 20.40 20.55 : 20.66 20.53 20.24 20.42 : 20.46 2005 20.57 20.36 20.54 21.21 21.96 21.89 21.94 20.49 21.10 21.71 21.83 21.74 : 20.49 21.69 21.18 21.76 : 21.28 2006 23.61 24.05 23.10 23.56 23.59 1/ Contract No. 14, duty fee paid New York. Average of nearest futures month for which an entire month of prices will be available. For example, April 2001's price average of 21.51 cents is the average of closes for the July 2001 futures during the month of April since there was not a full month of May 2001 futures in April (the May 2001 futures expired April 10th, July 2001 became the nearest futures, so July 2001 was used for the entire month of April). Source: New York Board of Trade (www.nybot.com).

54 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 14--U.S. wholesale refined beet sugar price, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. : Calendar Fiscal Cents per pound 1991 26.88 26.50 26.50 26.13 26.00 25.75 25.50 25.50 25.00 24.94 24.60 24.50 : 26.63 25.96 25.33 24.68 : 25.65 26.57 1992 25.40 26.50 26.50 26.50 26.40 26.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 24.90 24.13 23.90 : 26.13 26.30 25.00 24.31 : 25.44 25.53 1993 23.25 23.00 23.00 23.50 23.50 23.50 25.50 27.75 27.50 27.50 27.25 26.50 : 23.08 23.50 26.92 27.08 : 25.15 24.45 1994 25.75 25.50 25.50 24.50 24.75 25.25 25.00 25.00 24.70 25.00 25.38 25.50 : 25.58 24.83 24.90 25.29 : 25.15 25.60 1995 25.50 25.50 25.50 25.50 25.13 25.10 24.75 24.75 25.50 25.75 28.13 28.85 : 25.50 25.24 25.00 27.58 : 25.83 25.26 1996 28.69 29.00 29.50 29.50 29.70 29.50 29.50 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 : 29.06 29.57 29.17 29.00 : 29.20 28.84 1997 29.00 29.00 28.13 28.00 28.00 27.50 27.00 26.65 26.38 24.90 25.00 25.50 : 28.71 27.83 26.68 25.13 : 27.09 28.06 1998 25.50 25.50 25.50 25.50 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.50 26.90 27.00 27.00 : 25.50 25.83 26.17 26.97 : 26.12 25.66 1999 27.20 27.13 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 26.00 26.00 25.20 : 27.11 27.00 27.00 25.73 : 26.71 27.02 2000 23.38 22.25 21.50 21.00 19.75 19.00 19.00 19.00 20.70 21.25 21.00 21.80 : 22.38 19.92 19.57 21.35 : 20.80 21.90 2001 23.13 22.75 22.00 20.50 21.38 21.90 22.50 22.50 24.63 25.75 26.20 26.50 : 22.63 21.26 23.21 26.15 : 23.31 22.11 2002 26.75 26.00 25.95 24.63 24.50 24.00 24.00 25.40 26.25 26.75 27.40 27.88 : 26.23 24.38 25.22 27.34 : 25.79 25.49 2003 27.80 26.50 27.13 27.63 28.00 28.00 27.63 25.50 24.00 24.70 23.94 23.63 : 27.14 27.88 25.71 24.09 : 26.21 27.02 2004 23.70 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 23.38 23.20 : 23.57 23.50 23.50 23.36 : 23.48 23.66 2005 23.50 23.50 23.25 23.80 24.75 25.88 26.00 26.75 40.10 40.00 40.00 36.90 : 23.42 24.81 30.95 38.97 : 29.54 25.63 2006 34.50 36.50 37.10 36.38 36.03 Source: Milling & Baking News. Simple average of the lower end of the range of quotations for days in that month. Quotations are weekly.

55 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 15--U.S. retail refined sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. Calendar Fiscal Cents per pound

1991 43.40 43.00 43.40 43.30 43.10 43.20 43.50 42.80 42.20 42.00 41.90 41.80 : 43.27 43.20 42.83 41.90 : 42.80 43.08 1992 42.50 42.40 41.90 41.70 41.70 41.50 41.50 41.10 41.00 41.20 41.20 40.60 : 42.27 41.63 41.20 41.00 : 41.53 41.75 1993 41.20 41.00 40.60 40.80 40.80 40.30 40.20 40.60 40.40 40.50 40.30 39.80 : 40.93 40.63 40.40 40.20 : 40.54 40.74 1994 40.70 40.50 40.10 39.90 40.10 39.70 40.00 39.70 40.30 40.20 39.50 39.20 : 40.43 39.90 40.00 39.63 : 39.99 40.13 1995 39.70 39.90 39.80 39.40 39.70 39.50 39.70 39.60 39.80 40.40 40.70 39.80 : 39.80 39.53 39.70 40.30 : 39.83 39.67 1996 40.50 40.30 40.60 40.40 41.50 41.80 42.40 42.80 42.60 43.20 42.60 42.80 : 40.47 41.23 42.60 42.87 : 41.79 41.15 1997 43.40 42.90 43.10 43.50 43.40 43.60 43.30 43.60 43.60 43.00 42.90 42.80 : 43.13 43.50 43.50 42.90 : 43.26 43.25 1998 43.00 42.90 43.30 43.10 42.80 43.10 43.20 43.60 43.20 42.30 42.50 42.70 : 43.07 43.00 43.33 42.50 : 42.98 43.08 1999 43.60 43.00 43.70 43.20 43.60 43.10 43.20 43.10 43.70 43.80 42.60 42.60 : 43.43 43.30 43.33 43.00 : 43.27 43.14 2000 43.70 43.20 42.90 41.40 42.40 42.80 42.50 42.40 42.40 42.50 41.30 41.40 : 43.27 42.20 42.43 41.73 : 42.41 42.73 2001 42.80 43.50 43.70 42.90 43.80 43.50 44.30 43.30 44.20 44.00 42.50 42.50 : 43.33 43.40 43.93 43.00 : 43.42 43.10 2002 44.10 43.70 42.60 44.40 42.70 43.00 43.30 43.30 43.70 42.40 41.90 42.10 : 43.47 43.37 43.43 42.13 : 43.10 43.32 2003 43.00 42.70 42.70 42.70 43.10 42.90 43.10 43.50 42.60 42.50 41.10 42.20 : 42.80 42.90 43.07 41.93 : 42.68 42.73 2004 42.90 42.60 42.60 42.70 42.50 42.50 42.90 42.60 42.60 42.60 42.20 43.00 : 42.70 42.57 42.70 42.60 : 42.64 42.48 2005 43.70 43.50 43.30 43.60 42.70 42.80 42.40 43.20 43.70 44.20 44.50 44.90 : 43.50 43.03 43.10 44.53 : 43.54 43.06 2006 46.10 46.80 47.10 48.00 46.67 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

56 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 16 --U.S. producer price index for corn sweeteners and sugar, monthly Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual Corn sweeteners (liquids and solids), incl.glucose, dextrose, and HFCS, June 1985=100 1/ 2000 98.9 98.0 97.8 98.0 97.9 97.9 97.8 98.0 98.0 97.6 99.2 100.3 98.3 2001 111.3 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.9 111.3 111.3 111.3 112.2 112.3 113.9 114.0 112.0 2002 116.5 120.1 119.7 119.8 117.4 119.6 121.2 121.0 127.4 127.9 125.9 126.5 121.9 2003 130.0 131.4 131.3 131.3 131.5 131.9 -- 132.2 131.9 130.6 130.9 130.7 131.3 2004 131.9 132.0 131.9 131.7 131.6 131.7 131.8 131.5 131.6 131.5 131.6 131.6 131.7 2005 133.1 133.3 133.5 133.1 133.1 133.1 133.2 132.9 133.2 137.2 133.1 133.2 133.5 2006 2/ 146.9 144.8 145.3 153.4 Raw cane sugar and other can mill products and byproducts, June 1982=100 1/ 2000 92.7 89.4 95.1 97.4 97.0 99.5 92.7 90.7 95.9 106.1 106.9 103.4 97.2 2001 106.3 107.6 107.6 108.6 107.8 106.1 107.7 107.4 107.1 107.4 108.2 109.8 107.6 2002 109.2 107.0 103.8 103.4 101.4 102.7 106.7 106.9 111.2 111.6 113.9 112.7 107.5 2003 108.8 111.3 113.5 111.6 112.1 111.1 109.8 109.8 108.0 106.8 107.4 105.2 109.6 2004 104.7 104.5 106.4 105.6 105.8 102.7 104.6 103.3 107.1 104.2 104.2 106.5 105.0 2005 106.5 105.6 120.0 121.4 122.9 124.5 125.0 127.2 123.3 125.0 126.4 126.3 121.2 2006 2/ 129.5 132.4 128.7 132.5 Refined beet sugar and byproducts, June 1982=100 1/ 2000 105.4 101.5 100.3 99.1 98.3 98.3 97.7 96.2 95.5 94.7 95.0 94.0 98.0 2001 97.5 97.6 97.8 98.0 99.4 99.5 99.5 100.9 102.0 103.3 105.0 106.8 100.6 2002 108.5 109.8 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.9 111.3 111.3 114.2 114.3 116.1 117.9 112.3 2003 118.7 118.8 119.1 119.5 119.2 119.4 119.3 119.4 113.7 116.6 116.4 116.2 118.0 2004 116.1 116.3 116.4 116.8 116.3 116.6 116.6 116.7 116.9 115.5 115.8 116.1 116.4 2005 116.3 117.8 115.9 116.5 117.3 118.6 118.5 118.4 118.2 122.6 136.0 141.5 121.5 2006 2/ 142.8 149.4 150.0 148.8 Refined cane sugar and byproducts, June 1982=100 1/ 2000 124.7 121.8 121.7 119.8 120.4 119.8 120.5 119.2 117.5 113.9 113.2 114.4 118.9 2001 112.8 117.5 116.2 114.6 115.1 115.3 115.6 116.6 115.5 115.2 115.2 116.3 115.5 2002 117.4 117.9 121.0 122.3 119.7 121.2 121.3 120.8 120.8 121.0 119.5 120.1 120.2 2003 119.1 122.3 122.8 122.9 122.9 123.5 123.8 124.5 125.5 124.3 122.3 123.4 123.1 2004 120.5 120.4 121.6 121.6 123.0 124.3 123.3 123.5 123.1 123.6 122.5 121.6 122.4 2005 122.8 121.9 121.5 121.4 122.6 123.7 122.4 124.4 125.3 130.4 133.6 140.8 125.9 2006 2/ 143.8 146.3 146.6 157.0 1/ Based on a sample of domestic producers. 2/ Preliminary, all indexes are subject to revision four months after original publishing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

57 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 17--U.S. Consumer Price Index for sugar and selected sweetener-containing products 1/ Flour Year Sugar Sugar and Cereals and Cakes, Other and and and prepared bakery Breakfast White cupcakes, bakery month sweets artificial flour products cereal bread and cookiesproducts sweeteners mixes 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1982-84=100 2000 154.0 137.1 160.2 188.3 198.0 199.1 187.9 191.5 2001 155.7 140.3 164.3 193.8 199.7 208.3 192.0 199.1 2002 159.0 143.2 171.0 198.0 203.0 213.4 196.7 203.0 2003 162.0 145.7 178.4 202.8 204.3 218.6 202.8 207.3 2004 163.2 146.9 177.8 206.0 203.5 223.8 206.4 211.8 2005 165.2 149.1 179.6 209.0 203.6 232.1 209.8 211.4

2004 Jan. 163.0 147.1 180.8 203.9 204.3 215.8 204.8 208.7 Feb. 163.9 147.9 179.4 204.4 204.4 217.7 203.3 210.2 Mar. 163.3 147.7 180.1 204.8 200.5 220.0 206.4 213.1 Apr. 162.6 146.4 173.4 205.5 200.6 223.9 205.9 214.6 May 163.5 148.8 181.1 206.1 202.4 221.6 206.8 213.5 June 162.8 147.5 182.7 206.8 203.9 225.0 206.5 212.6 July 163.8 148.5 185.0 207.2 202.0 224.9 206.8 216.4 Aug. 164.4 148.4 182.6 207.2 203.5 227.1 205.4 213.5 Sep. 163.5 148.2 179.0 206.4 204.4 223.0 206.4 211.7 Oct. 162.6 146.9 175.5 207.0 205.7 226.7 205.8 211.2 Nov. 163.1 142.5 168.9 206.8 204.9 226.7 209.2 208.7 Dec. 163.1 142.7 165.4 206.4 205.7 227.2 209.4 206.9

2005 Jan. 163.0 146.6 181.3 207.6 203.5 229.3 207.7 209.6 Feb. 164.2 147.8 181.7 208.4 205.8 231.7 209.5 208.7 Mar. 162.6 145.6 179.8 208.5 206.5 232.1 208.7 207.3 Apr. 164.9 148.7 181.0 209.1 204.6 233.4 209.0 212.6 May 163.3 146.9 184.2 209.7 204.1 233.7 208.9 212.6 June 165.7 148.6 182.0 209.4 203.3 235.5 209.2 214.0 July 167.1 148.6 183.7 209.4 202.6 232.2 209.8 214.4 Aug. 164.7 149.6 182.3 210.1 205.3 229.5 208.6 216.6 Sep. 165.8 149.1 179.8 208.3 202.3 228.9 208.9 212.5 Oct. 166.3 152.0 176.1 209.4 202.0 231.8 211.1 212.9 Nov. 166.5 151.4 171.4 209.1 201.4 234.8 212.3 210.2 Dec. 167.8 154.3 171.6 208.4 201.3 232.5 213.9 205.9

2006 Jan. 169.3 157.6 181.8 210.6 200.3 234.4 212.9 213.9 Feb. 167.3 159.7 180.0 210.3 195.3 232.7 213.8 215.5 Mar. 170.1 160.6 182.5 210.9 196.9 234.5 212.9 214.3 Apr. 171.0 161.6 177.4 210.9 200.7 236.8 212.7 211.2 Continued--

58 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 17--U.S. consumer price index for sugar and selected sweetener-containing products 1/ Year Non-alcoholic Carbonated non-carbonated Canned Candy and Ice cream and beverages drinks juices and fruits chewing gum and related month drinks products Food 10/ 11/ 12/ 13/ 14/ 15/ 16/ 1982-84=100

2000 137.8 123.4 104.2 106.9 103.8 164.4 167.8 2001 139.2 125.4 106.0 109.0 104.3 173.4 173.1 2002 139.2 125.6 106.4 111.6 106.2 179.1 176.2 2003 139.8 125.6 106.5 113.7 107.8 175.5 180.0 2004 140.4 127.9 105.7 114.0 108.4 178.3 186.2 2005 144.4 131.9 106.5 118.4 109.5 177.6 190.7

2004 Jan. 140.7 127.2 106.5 113.7 108.0 179.0 183.8 Feb. 141.4 129.4 105.9 114.2 109.0 177.2 184.1 Mar. 140.8 128.2 105.9 114.9 108.6 178.8 184.4 Apr. 139.7 127.0 105.4 112.7 108.1 179.4 184.5 May 139.9 127.5 106.0 114.3 108.0 179.1 186.1 June 139.8 127.8 105.5 113.6 108.1 177.1 186.3 July 140.5 128.5 106.1 116.2 108.6 175.9 186.8 Aug. 140.3 128.7 105.3 115.3 109.1 178.9 186.8 Sep. 140.3 127.8 106.0 113.8 108.4 179.6 186.7 Oct. 140.6 128.3 105.5 114.2 107.6 178.6 187.9 Nov. 139.6 126.7 104.6 113.0 109.3 177.2 188.2 Dec. 140.6 127.5 105.7 112.0 107.5 178.4 188.5

2005 Jan. 142.2 130.0 105.3 117.0 108.1 180.1 189.1 Feb. 142.5 130.4 105.4 115.7 108.7 178.9 188.8 Mar. 143.6 130.6 107.5 114.7 108.1 175.0 189.1 Apr. 144.8 132.0 107.9 118.3 108.9 178.5 190.2 May 144.3 131.1 107.2 120.0 108.1 179.1 190.6 June 144.0 131.5 105.7 120.9 109.8 171.9 190.4 July 144.8 132.6 106.1 120.6 111.5 174.0 190.8 Aug. 144.3 131.6 105.7 120.7 108.5 178.8 190.9 Sep. 145.2 133.9 106.2 120.6 109.9 178.9 191.4 Oct. 145.6 133.8 106.1 118.3 109.9 180.6 192.1 Nov. 145.5 132.2 106.9 115.9 110.6 176.6 192.4 Dec. 145.5 133.1 107.4 117.8 111.4 179.1 192.9

2006 Jan. 147.2 135.7 108.4 121.0 111.5 182.0 194.1 Feb. 147.3 134.7 108.5 120.3 109.3 179.3 194.0 Mar. 148.0 134.9 109.2 121.7 112.1 178.8 194.0 Apr. 146.3 132.3 109.4 118.8 112.8 178.9 193.7 1/ All-urban, unadjusted, U.S. city average. 2/ Series:SEFR, Base: 1982-84=100. 3/ Series: SEFR01, Base: 1982-84=100. 4/ Series: SEFA01, Base: 1982-84=100; 5/ Series: SAF111, Base: 1982-84=100. 6/ Series: SEFA02, Base: 1982-84=100. 7/ Series: SS02011, Base: 1982-84=100. 8/ Series: SEFB03, Base: 1982-84=100. 9/ Series: SEFB04, Base: 1982-84=100. 10/ Series: SAF114, Base: 1982-84=100. 11/ Series: SEFN01, Base: 1982-84=100. 12/ Series: SEFN03, Base: Dec. 1997=100. 13/ Series: SS13031, Base: Dec. 1997=100. 14/ Series: SEFR02, Base: Dec. 1997=100. 15/ Series: SEFJ03, Base: 1982-84=100. 16/ Series: SAF1, Base: 1982-84=100.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

59 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 18--Bulk sugar prices in Mexico, estandar sugar 1/ Nominal pesos per 50 kg Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Calendar Fiscal 1994 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.85 90.94 91.70 90.93 88.62 1995 91.70 99.33 105.95 106.34 110.92 117.25 117.25 119.80 133.76 140.30 144.91 149.57 119.76 106.32 1996 148.43 152.71 159.88 160.92 162.21 166.86 168.24 171.81 176.29 172.51 160.87 155.08 162.98 158.51 1997 173.20 196.96 187.29 179.11 172.99 179.36 175.96 173.60 176.78 169.63 162.55 162.99 175.87 175.31 1998 178.10 176.01 155.70 163.12 180.02 189.52 186.70 210.43 214.81 215.07 223.54 227.44 193.37 179.13 1999 222.59 214.45 195.14 184.23 184.54 223.55 220.27 207.16 211.56 224.71 242.96 228.98 213.35 210.80 2000 220.61 207.89 207.75 201.33 219.23 216.75 232.14 232.22 230.60 224.57 243.21 263.77 225.01 222.10 2001 248.89 234.25 208.67 189.46 185.45 218.39 222.00 219.07 249.51 249.34 240.23 233.55 224.90 225.60 2002 245.76 244.46 243.44 242.14 240.83 239.15 244.95 248.15 253.40 262.31 266.23 268.39 249.93 243.78 2003 268.50 266.46 265.01 270.04 273.14 278.50 285.05 287.64 294.90 302.40 303.75 319.10 284.54 273.85 2004 309.70 296.25 291.25 298.25 297.25 302.95 317.85 326.20 331.00 329.60 326.05 329.85 313.02 308.00 2005 322.70 312.00 306.00 306.00 305.25 304.10 297.25 300.00 289.00 284.10 283.50 282.50 299.37 310.65 2006 280.40 275.60 273.00 292.50 Real 2000 pesos per 50 kg Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Calendar Fiscal 1994 291.09 290.35 289.24 287.68 286.14 284.35 282.58 280.92 279.11 277.91 276.82 276.20 283.53 280.77 1995 260.81 270.52 273.49 251.99 252.37 259.17 254.39 255.71 280.13 287.73 288.90 287.20 268.53 265.79 1996 275.99 277.40 283.88 277.74 275.96 280.77 279.65 282.07 286.42 276.86 253.98 238.66 274.11 281.98 1997 260.65 292.10 275.10 261.28 250.64 257.85 251.08 245.75 247.90 236.06 222.49 220.70 251.80 259.32 1998 235.08 228.17 199.79 208.01 228.51 237.82 232.07 258.32 256.06 251.28 257.56 257.90 237.55 230.26 1999 246.64 235.89 213.78 201.54 201.29 242.12 237.54 222.51 225.78 237.91 255.51 238.94 229.96 232.82 2000 227.62 212.96 211.64 203.45 220.66 216.19 231.47 230.72 228.57 220.84 237.72 256.34 224.85 226.30 2001 239.04 224.96 198.79 180.34 176.92 208.53 212.44 208.82 236.28 235.45 226.80 221.21 214.13 216.75 2002 232.16 230.78 226.27 222.92 219.68 216.46 220.50 222.04 224.84 232.90 234.77 233.63 226.41 224.92 2003 230.61 225.60 223.77 230.67 234.29 236.88 241.79 242.88 247.86 251.43 250.47 260.23 239.71 234.64 2004 251.54 236.92 229.38 231.45 229.22 233.43 243.92 248.38 250.64 247.88 244.67 249.04 241.37 243.09 2005 242.80 233.10 227.17 226.06 226.75 226.65 220.25 221.88 212.55 208.61 208.20 231.57 2006 202.67 198.67 195.04 US cents per pound Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Calendar Fiscal 1994 26.52 26.40 24.96 24.61 24.85 24.48 24.22 24.37 24.23 24.09 23.96 20.93 24.47 24.66 1995 14.75 15.87 14.18 15.49 16.84 17.07 17.37 17.44 19.21 18.87 17.09 17.65 16.82 18.10 1996 18.00 18.43 19.16 19.54 19.79 20.01 20.04 20.74 21.20 20.23 18.45 17.86 19.45 19.21 1997 20.07 22.90 21.36 20.56 19.86 20.47 20.29 20.24 20.61 19.55 17.83 18.19 20.16 20.24 1998 19.64 18.78 16.49 17.41 19.02 19.27 19.03 20.37 19.07 19.20 20.34 20.83 19.12 18.72 1999 19.94 19.44 18.19 17.72 17.82 21.31 21.33 20.00 20.55 21.29 23.41 22.04 20.25 19.72 2000 21.08 20.01 20.29 19.44 20.92 20.00 22.36 22.72 22.35 21.36 23.21 25.28 21.58 21.32 2001 23.11 21.88 19.72 18.43 18.39 21.80 21.97 21.76 24.02 24.22 23.62 23.14 21.84 21.74 2002 24.33 24.36 24.37 23.97 22.97 22.21 22.72 22.88 22.83 23.58 23.69 23.81 23.48 23.47 2003 22.93 22.09 22.05 23.14 24.17 24.06 24.73 24.20 24.49 24.54 24.72 25.73 23.90 23.58 2004 25.73 24.36 23.98 24.01 23.41 24.12 25.14 25.97 26.14 26.22 26.01 26.72 25.15 24.82 2005 25.99 25.41 24.89 24.98 25.23 25.50 25.27 25.47 24.31 23.79 24.10 24.12 24.92 25.50 2006 24.13 23.85 23.04 24.02 Source: Servicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados SNIIM-ECONOMICA 1/ D.F.- Central de Abasto de Iztapolapa, D.F.

60 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 19--Bulk sugar prices in Mexico, refinado sugar 1/ Nominal pesos per 50 kg Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Calendar Fiscal 1994 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.83 101.85 102.00 101.85 99.31 1995 102.00 110.46 117.80 118.19 122.85 129.30 129.30 132.15 154.33 154.75 159.84 164.98 132.99 118.50 1996 161.26 167.01 177.07 179.04 178.82 181.29 183.36 186.30 188.39 187.66 186.40 186.42 180.25 173.51 1997 194.96 216.67 216.01 215.62 211.40 211.37 213.08 211.71 210.68 206.09 206.63 204.38 209.88 205.17 1998 209.08 207.25 202.34 198.37 205.43 209.93 212.25 229.75 229.88 244.41 250.01 246.63 220.44 210.12 1999 250.22 251.28 241.93 239.00 233.35 242.83 251.83 243.62 239.71 271.33 267.38 263.02 249.63 244.57 2000 259.02 252.50 250.11 248.45 245.58 237.48 244.47 246.61 245.91 245.09 259.57 271.48 250.52 252.66 2001 276.98 274.56 266.54 256.03 250.26 256.90 260.85 261.87 276.33 279.72 277.48 274.21 267.64 263.04 2002 288.40 283.56 284.03 280.56 278.54 279.34 285.98 292.64 298.51 303.09 306.90 309.50 290.92 283.58 2003 310.81 310.73 308.13 313.20 315.26 320.36 334.24 339.84 363.00 360.00 365.00 360.00 333.38 319.59 2004 352.50 340.00 337.20 340.00 337.50 340.60 345.00 337.40 339.50 339.25 338.20 341.00 340.68 346.23 2005 340.00 339.50 335.60 339.00 338.80 335.75 335.75 333.00 330.00 335.00 335.00 335.50 336.08 337.15 2006 332.80 332.75 350.00 355.00 Real 2000 pesos per 50 kg Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Calendar Fiscal 1994 326.27 325.44 324.20 322.45 320.72 318.72 316.73 314.87 312.84 311.50 310.04 307.23 317.58 314.64 1995 290.10 300.83 304.08 280.07 279.52 285.81 280.54 282.07 323.19 317.36 318.65 316.78 298.25 296.25 1996 299.85 303.38 314.40 309.01 304.22 305.05 304.79 305.86 306.08 301.17 294.28 286.89 302.91 308.79 1997 293.39 321.33 317.29 314.54 306.29 303.87 304.05 299.70 295.44 286.79 282.82 276.75 300.19 303.19 1998 275.98 268.67 259.64 252.96 260.76 263.43 263.83 282.04 274.03 285.56 288.06 279.66 271.22 270.64 1999 277.25 276.41 265.04 261.46 254.53 263.00 271.57 261.68 255.83 287.27 281.19 274.47 269.14 270.00 2000 267.25 258.66 254.80 251.06 247.19 236.86 243.76 245.02 243.74 241.02 253.71 263.83 250.57 257.61 2001 266.02 263.67 253.92 243.70 238.75 245.30 249.62 249.61 261.68 264.14 261.97 259.72 254.84 252.57 2002 272.44 267.69 263.99 258.29 254.07 252.84 257.43 261.85 264.87 269.10 270.63 269.41 263.55 261.61 2003 266.95 263.09 260.18 267.53 270.42 272.48 283.52 286.95 305.09 299.33 300.98 293.59 280.84 273.78 2004 286.31 271.91 265.57 263.85 260.26 262.44 264.75 256.91 257.08 255.13 253.79 257.46 262.96 273.58 2005 255.81 253.64 249.15 250.44 251.67 250.24 248.78 246.28 242.70 245.98 246.02 251.26 2006 240.55 239.87 250.05 US cents per pound Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Calendar Fiscal 1994 29.73 29.59 27.97 27.58 27.85 27.44 27.15 27.32 27.15 27.00 26.84 23.28 27.41 27.64 1995 16.41 17.65 15.77 17.21 18.66 18.82 19.16 19.23 22.16 20.81 18.85 19.47 18.68 20.18 1996 19.56 20.15 21.23 21.75 21.81 21.74 21.84 22.49 22.65 22.01 21.37 21.47 21.51 21.03 1997 22.59 25.19 24.63 24.76 24.26 24.12 24.57 24.68 24.56 23.75 22.66 22.81 24.05 23.69 1998 23.05 22.11 21.42 21.17 21.71 21.35 21.64 22.24 20.41 21.82 22.75 22.58 21.86 22.03 1999 22.41 22.78 22.55 22.99 22.53 23.15 24.38 23.52 23.28 25.71 25.76 25.31 23.70 22.90 2000 24.75 24.30 24.43 23.99 23.44 21.91 23.55 24.13 23.83 23.31 24.77 26.02 24.03 24.26 2001 25.72 25.65 25.19 24.90 24.82 25.64 25.81 26.01 26.60 27.17 27.29 27.17 26.00 25.37 2002 28.55 28.25 28.43 27.77 26.57 25.95 26.53 26.98 26.89 27.24 27.31 27.46 27.33 27.30 2003 26.55 25.76 25.63 26.83 27.89 27.67 28.99 28.59 30.15 29.21 29.70 29.03 28.00 27.51 2004 29.28 27.96 27.76 27.37 26.58 27.12 27.29 26.86 26.81 26.99 26.98 27.62 27.39 27.91 2005 27.39 27.65 27.29 27.68 28.00 28.15 28.54 28.27 27.76 28.05 28.48 28.64 27.99 27.69 2006 28.64 28.79 29.54 29.15 Source: Servicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados SNIIM-ECONOMICA 1/ D.F.- Central de Abasto de Iztapolapa, D.F.

61 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 20--U.S. cane and beet sugar deliveries, monthly, quarterly, and by fiscal and calendar year Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. : Fiscal Calendar 1,000 short tons, raw value U.S. beet sugar for domestic consumption: 1992 301 284 315 312 283 341 344 356 375 343 357 355 : 901 935 1,075 1,055 : 3,902 3,966 1993 303 287 397 299 328 367 358 372 367 346 325 338 : 988 994 1,097 1,008 : 4,134 4,087 1994 312 313 370 303 338 406 360 406 437 338 304 282 : 995 1,047 1,204 924 : 4,254 4,170 1995 301 311 378 311 356 399 384 450 465 404 395 331 : 989 1,066 1,300 1,131 : 4,279 4,486 1996 316 342 361 343 338 325 350 335 300 333 315 267 : 1,018 1,006 984 915 : 4,139 3,923 1997 280 272 315 312 326 332 351 373 428 375 316 317 : 867 970 1,152 1,009 : 3,903 3,997 1998 324 316 362 344 342 401 393 388 409 392 334 308 : 1,002 1,087 1,190 1,034 : 4,288 4,313 1999 319 325 374 346 361 417 400 427 416 438 392 321 : 1,018 1,124 1,244 1,151 : 4,419 4,536 2000 320 340 385 341 393 384 348 411 392 412 378 329 : 1,045 1,118 1,152 1,119 : 4,465 4,433 2001 366 346 401 375 405 403 414 450 408 429 373 311 : 1,113 1,183 1,272 1,112 : 4,686 4,680 2002 349 315 347 340 375 332 369 365 380 423 396 300 : 1,012 1,047 1,114 1,119 : 4,285 4,291 2003 315 307 341 338 338 365 380 366 388 395 335 353 : 962 1,041 1,134 1,082 : 4,255 4,219 2004 359 367 407 387 333 438 408 433 392 423 378 342 : 1,133 1,159 1,233 1,143 : 4,607 4,668 2005 358 368 395 387 370 416 384 415 449 457 375 337 : 1,120 1,173 1,248 1,169 : 4,684 4,710 2006 342 306 357 1,005 Cane sugar for domestic consumption: 1992 324 339 406 406 375 455 417 419 468 479 371 349 : 1,069 1,236 1,303 1,200 : 4,820 4,808 1993 311 339 391 387 351 423 422 441 469 427 424 395 : 1,042 1,161 1,332 1,246 : 4,734 4,781 1994 332 358 422 361 400 448 411 427 473 443 434 420 : 1,112 1,209 1,310 1,298 : 4,877 4,929 1995 340 332 432 380 424 438 369 444 423 431 413 381 : 1,104 1,243 1,236 1,226 : 4,880 4,808 1996 353 376 443 425 452 471 463 488 565 547 500 456 : 1,172 1,349 1,515 1,504 : 5,262 5,539 1997 397 396 481 444 474 509 462 476 500 525 459 431 : 1,274 1,427 1,437 1,416 : 5,641 5,553 1998 369 391 470 430 429 481 432 438 506 486 467 451 : 1,230 1,339 1,377 1,404 : 5,361 5,349 1999 355 379 453 452 500 476 433 490 485 483 481 433 : 1,186 1,429 1,407 1,396 : 5,427 5,419 2000 383 404 484 425 452 488 455 530 471 534 481 398 : 1,272 1,365 1,456 1,414 : 5,490 5,508 2001 410 371 470 413 431 458 419 446 417 487 467 384 : 1,251 1,302 1,282 1,338 : 5,248 5,172 2002 392 378 437 424 458 490 472 486 549 468 444 407 : 1,208 1,373 1,507 1,320 : 5,424 5,407 2003 372 377 467 434 408 475 421 488 415 476 486 413 : 1,216 1,317 1,324 1,375 : 5,177 5,232 2004 346 393 406 377 415 408 404 448 415 528 466 383 : 1,144 1,200 1,268 1,377 : 4,987 4,989 2005 377 363 459 400 437 441 418 477 458 473 426 398 : 1,199 1,277 1,353 1,297 : 5,207 5,126 2006 402 372 428 1,201 Importers direct consumption: 1992 6 6 3 3 2 2 2 7 3 6 7 6 : 15 7 12 19 : 49 52 1993 4 2 3 2 5 9 1 2 1 9 6 8 : 10 17 3 23 : 48 52 1994 5 3 6 1 4 4 5 5 7 10 15 12 : 14 9 18 38 : 63 78 1995 9 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 4 17 5 0 : 12 3 6 22 : 59 44 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 10 1 1 : 1 1 20 12 : 44 33 1997 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 15 2 2 : 2 4 2 19 : 20 27 1998 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 13 5 1 : 1 2 1 19 : 23 24 1999 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 27 3 4 : 4 0 4 33 : 28 41 2000 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 26 4 1 : 1 0 3 31 : 38 36 2001 5 1 0 0 0 0 3 21 3 6 10 8 : 6 1 27 24 : 65 58 2002 3 1 4 7 1 12 3 6 14 36 19 2 : 8 20 24 58 : 76 109 2003 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 4 25 16 5 : 5 2 6 47 : 71 60 2004 1 2 6 4 3 3 4 11 4 16 11 1 : 9 9 19 27 : 84 64 2005 1 1 13 6 4 11 2 6 57 19 25 56 : 16 21 65 100 : 128 201 2006 92 27 142 Total sugar for domestic consumption: 1992 631 629 725 720 660 798 763 782 846 828 736 710 : 1,985 2,178 2,390 2,273 : 8,772 8,826 1993 619 629 791 688 685 799 782 815 836 783 755 740 : 2,039 2,172 2,432 2,277 : 8,916 8,920 1994 649 674 798 665 742 857 776 838 918 792 754 714 : 2,121 2,265 2,532 2,260 : 9,195 9,177 1995 651 644 811 694 780 837 755 894 892 853 813 713 : 2,105 2,311 2,542 2,379 : 9,218 9,337 1996 670 718 804 769 790 796 813 823 883 891 816 724 : 2,191 2,355 2,519 2,430 : 9,445 9,496 1997 678 668 797 758 801 841 813 849 928 915 778 750 : 2,143 2,401 2,591 2,443 : 9,565 9,578 1998 694 707 832 774 772 883 826 826 915 892 806 760 : 2,233 2,428 2,568 2,458 : 9,672 9,686 1999 676 704 827 798 861 894 833 916 905 947 876 757 : 2,208 2,553 2,655 2,580 : 9,873 9,996 2000 703 745 870 766 845 872 804 941 867 973 863 728 : 2,318 2,484 2,611 2,564 : 9,993 9,977 2001 781 718 871 788 837 861 835 917 828 922 849 703 : 2,370 2,486 2,580 2,474 : 10,000 9,911 2002 744 695 788 771 834 834 844 858 943 927 860 709 : 2,227 2,439 2,645 2,497 : 9,785 9,808 2003 689 685 809 772 746 841 802 856 807 896 837 771 : 2,183 2,360 2,464 2,504 : 9,504 9,511 2004 706 762 819 767 751 850 817 893 810 967 855 726 : 2,286 2,368 2,520 2,547 : 9,678 9,722 2005 737 732 866 793 811 867 804 897 964 950 825 791 : 2,335 2,471 2,666 2,565 : 10,019 10,037 2006 836 704 927 2,467 continued- -

62 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 20--U.S. cane and beet sugar deliveries, monthly, quarterly, and by fiscal and calendar year Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4th Q. : Fiscal Calendar 1,000 short tons, raw value Reexported in products: 1992 8 6 5 6 10 9 6 8 8 10 8 7 : 19 26 23 26 : 86 93 1993 10 4 9 7 7 12 14 22 20 8 8 7 : 23 26 57 24 : 132 129 1994 7 7 7 9 15 15 10 17 17 12 11 5 : 20 39 44 28 : 127 131 1995 3 7 7 8 4 7 15 18 5 6 8 7 : 18 18 39 21 : 103 96 1996 5 5 10 14 8 8 8 13 11 9 7 6 : 20 30 32 22 : 104 104 1997 32 30 6 6 7 10 12 16 17 7 6 8 : 68 22 45 21 : 157 156 1998 6 9 9 12 10 10 14 15 16 18 15 11 : 24 32 46 44 : 123 146 1999 26 19 12 14 11 10 15 10 7 9 5 7 : 58 35 32 21 : 169 145 2000 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 11 5 6 6 7 : 21 22 22 18 : 86 84 2001 8 5 8 9 10 10 11 11 8 10 16 13 : 21 29 30 40 : 98 120 2002 15 13 11 12 12 11 12 14 15 17 12 14 : 39 35 42 43 : 156 158 2003 16 13 14 14 15 20 19 15 13 16 10 9 : 44 49 47 35 : 183 175 2004 9 10 9 10 18 11 12 15 13 10 9 9 : 28 40 39 28 : 142 135 2005 7 8 9 11 9 17 11 11 11 6 14 6 : 24 37 33 25 : 121 118 2006 6 10 9 25 Polyhydric alcohol and livestock feed use: 1992 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 : 4 4 5 4 : 17 17 1993 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 : 5 4 3 2 : 15 14 1994 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 : 4 3 4 4 : 13 14 1995 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 : 4 5 4 4 : 17 17 1996 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 : 4 5 5 5 : 18 18 1997 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 : 4 6 6 5 : 21 21 1998 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 : 4 5 5 6 : 20 21 1999 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 : 5 6 6 8 : 24 26 2000 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 : 9 8 7 7 : 32 30 2001 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 10 4 3 2 : 8 10 17 9 : 42 44 2002 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 : 7 8 8 5 : 33 28 2003 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 : 6 7 7 7 : 24 27 2004 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 : 9 11 13 10 : 41 44 2005 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 : 12 13 13 13 : 48 51 2006 5 4 5 13 Total U.S. sugar deliveries 1/: 1992 640 637 731 728 671 809 771 792 856 840 745 718 : 2,007 2,208 2,418 2,303 : 8,875 8,937 1993 630 635 801 697 693 812 797 838 857 792 763 748 : 2,067 2,201 2,492 2,303 : 9,063 9,063 1994 657 682 806 675 758 873 787 856 936 804 767 720 : 2,145 2,307 2,579 2,291 : 9,334 9,322 1995 655 653 820 703 786 846 772 914 899 861 823 721 : 2,127 2,334 2,585 2,405 : 9,337 9,451 1996 676 724 815 785 800 806 822 838 896 901 824 731 : 2,215 2,390 2,557 2,457 : 9,567 9,619 1997 712 699 804 766 810 854 827 867 948 924 785 760 : 2,215 2,429 2,641 2,469 : 9,742 9,755 1998 701 718 843 787 784 894 843 843 933 912 823 773 : 2,261 2,465 2,619 2,508 : 9,815 9,854 1999 704 725 842 814 875 906 850 928 915 958 883 767 : 2,271 2,594 2,693 2,609 : 10,066 10,167 2000 713 755 880 776 855 881 813 954 875 981 871 737 : 2,348 2,513 2,641 2,589 : 10,111 10,091 2001 792 726 882 800 851 874 849 932 847 936 869 718 : 2,399 2,524 2,628 2,524 : 10,140 10,075 2002 761 710 801 786 848 849 860 874 960 946 874 724 : 2,272 2,483 2,694 2,544 : 9,973 9,994 2003 707 701 825 788 764 863 823 873 823 914 849 783 : 2,233 2,415 2,519 2,546 : 9,711 9,713 2004 718 775 832 782 773 864 833 912 827 980 866 739 : 2,324 2,419 2,572 2,586 : 9,861 9,901 2005 748 744 879 808 824 889 820 912 979 960 843 801 : 2,370 2,521 2,711 2,604 : 10,188 10,207 2006 847 718 940 2,505 Totals may not add due to rounding. Note: This table commenced in October 1991 when USDA began reporting monthly production data. Puerto Rico data were added beginning October 1993. 1/ Fiscal year totals prior to 1994 differ from supply and use (table ) since WASDE includes Puerto Rico. Source: "Sweetener Market Data ," Farm Service Agency, USDA.

63 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 21--U.S. sugar: supply and use, by fiscal year 1/ Items 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 Estimate Projection May-06 May-06 1,000 short tons, raw value

Beginning stocks 2 1,492 1,488 1,679 1,639 2,216 2,180 1,528 1,670 1,897 1,331 1,436

Total production 3,4 7,204 8,021 8,366 9,050 8,769 7,900 8,426 8,649 7,876 7,430 8,230 Beet sugar 4,013 4,389 4,421 4,974 4,680 3,915 4,462 4,692 4,611 4,383 4,700 Cane sugar 3,191 3,632 3,945 4,076 4,089 3,985 3,964 3,957 3,265 3,047 3,530 Florida 1,679 1,924 2,127 1,966 2,057 1,980 2,129 2,154 1,693 1,368 1,800 Louisiana 1,054 1,262 1,325 1,683 1,585 1,580 1,367 1,377 1,157 1,245 1,300 Texas 91 80 107 105 206 174 191 175 158 180 180 Hawaii 340 350 384 318 241 251 276 251 258 255 250 Puerto Rico 271634000 0000

Total imports 2,774 2,163 1,823 1,636 1,590 1,535 1,730 1,750 2,100 3,115 1,818 Tariff-rate quota imports 5 2,277 1,729 1,256 1,124 1,277 1,158 1,210 1,226 1,408 2,540 1,318 Other Program Imports 493 349 386 388 238 296 488 464 500 250 325 Non-program imports 4 85 181 124 76 81 32 60 192 325 175 Statistical adjustments 3 0000000 0000

Total Supply 11,471 11,672 11,868 12,325 12,575 11,615 11,684 12,070 11,873 11,876 11,484

Total exports 3 211 179 230 124 141 137 142 288 259 175 200 Quota-exempt for reexport 211 179 230 124 141 137 142 288 259 175 200 Other exports 0000000 0 0 0 CCC disposal, for export 0000000 0 0 0 Statistical difference 6 0000000 0 0 0

Miscellaneous 30 -1 -67 -126 123 -24 161 23 95 0 0 CCC disposal, for domestic non-food use 00001000 0000 Refining loss adjustment 0000000 0000 Statistical adjustment 7 30 -1 -67 -126 113 -24 161 23 95 0 0

Deliveries for domestic use 9,742 9,815 10,066 10,111 10,132 9,974 9,711 9,862 10,188 10,265 10,415 Transfer to sugar-cont. products for exports under reexport program 157 123 169 86 98 156 183 142 121 75 125 Transfer to polyhydric alcohol, feed 21 20 24 32 33 33 24 41 48 40 40 Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use 9,564 9,672 9,873 9,993 10,000 9,785 9,504 9,678 10,019 10,150 10,250

Total Use 9,983 9,992 10,238 10,090 10,396 10,087 10,014 10,172 10,542 10,440 10,615

Ending stocks 3 1,488 1,679 1,639 2,216 2,180 1,528 1,670 1,897 1,331 1,436 869 Privately owned 1,488 1,679 1,639 1,919 1,395 1,316 CCC 0 0 0 297 784 212

Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 14.91 16.81 16.01 21.96 20.97 15.15 16.68 18.65 12.63 13.76 8.19 NOTE: Numbers may not add due to rounding. 1/ Fiscal year beginning October 1. 2/ Stocks in hands of primary distributors and CCC. 3/ Historical data are from FSA (formerly ASCS), Sweetener Market Data, and NASS, Sugar Market Statistics prior to 1992. 4/ Production reflects processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and (TRQ) overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2005/06 available TRQ assumes shortfall of 165,000 tons. 6/ Receipts compiled by NASS and FSA Customs data. 7/ Calculated as a residual. Largely consists of invisible stocks change.

64 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 22--U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) deliveries, quarterly, by fiscal and calendar year 1/ Quarter and Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1,000 short tons, dry weight Quarter I 1,762 1,833 1,920 1,975 2,072 2,129 2,165 2,114 2,122 2,185 2,128 2,195 II 2,126 2,241 2,311 2,439 2,482 2,482 2,370 2,527 2,469 2,438 2,408 III 2,097 2,141 2,286 2,399 2,440 2,400 2,433 2,491 2,408 2,361 2,392 IV 1,748 1,841 2,000 2,066 2,188 2,103 2,181 2,161 2,136 2,076 2,130

Year Fiscal 7,671 7,964 8,358 8,812 9,061 9,200 9,072 9,313 9,160 9,120 9,004 Calendar 7,733 8,057 8,517 8,879 9,183 9,114 9,149 9,293 9,135 9,060 9,058 1/ Includes Puerto Rico. Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

Table 23--U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production, quarterly, by fiscal and calendar year 1/ Quarter and Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1,000 short tons, dry weight Quarter I 1,760 1,830 1,946 2,012 2,122 2,169 2,193 2,105 2,119 2,183 2,143 2,256 II 2,136 2,267 2,352 2,540 2,547 2,553 2,400 2,541 2,484 2,446 2,446 III 2,111 2,163 2,348 2,476 2,503 2,438 2,442 2,498 2,412 2,359 2,454 IV 1,752 1,897 2,031 2,123 2,240 2,155 2,201 2,158 2,135 2,076 2,185 Year Fiscal 7,701 8,012 8,543 9,059 9,295 9,399 9,190 9,345 9,173 9,123 9,119 Calendar 7,759 8,157 8,677 9,150 9,412 9,315 9,236 9,302 9,150 9,064 9,228 1/ Includes Puerto Rico. Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

65 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 24--U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) supply and use, calendar year 1/ Calendar Supply Utilization year Domestic production Total Domestic disappearance HFCS-42 HFCS-55 Total Imports supply Exports HFCS-42 HFCS-55 Total 1,000 short tons, dry weight

1992 2,793 3,841 6,634 193 6,827 100 2,822 3,905 6,727 1993 2,924 4,173 7,097 189 7,286 113 2,918 4,255 7,173 1994 2,994 4,474 7,467 137 7,605 123 3,005 4,476 7,481 1995 3,055 4,705 7,759 79 7,838 104 3,075 4,658 7,733 1996 3,076 5,081 8,157 123 8,280 224 3,095 4,962 8,057 1997 3,187 5,490 8,677 116 8,793 276 3,225 5,291 8,517 1998 3,296 5,854 9,150 117 9,267 388 3,318 5,561 8,879 1999 3,523 5,889 9,412 121 9,533 350 3,546 5,637 9,183 2000 3,519 5,796 9,315 121 9,436 321 3,550 5,565 9,114 2001 3,496 5,740 9,236 148 9,384 235 3,556 5,593 9,149 2002 3,640 5,662 9,302 136 9,438 145 3,695 5,599 9,294 2003 3,632 5,518 9,150 144 9,294 159 3,692 5,443 9,135 2004 3,611 5,452 9,063 156 9,219 160 3,685 5,374 9,059 2005 3,684 5,512 9,196 155 9,351 267 3,748 5,336 9,084 1/ Includes Puerto Rico. Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

66 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 25--Net cost of corn starch to U.S. wet-millers, Midwest markets Corn byproducts Byproduct credits Net cost Period Yellow Corn Corn Corn Corn Corn Corn Total Corn Corn Corn dent oil gluten gluten oil gluten gluten byproduct starch sweetener corn 1/ feed meal feed meal Dollars Cents Dollars per short ton ----Cents per bushel---- Dollars Dollars --Cents per lb.-- per bu. per lb. per bu. per bu.

1991 2.40 28.36 101.57 256.07 43.96 68.56 33.93 1.46 0.94 2.97 2.81 1992 2.33 23.89 102.80 259.72 37.03 69.39 34.41 1.41 0.92 2.93 2.77 1993 2.27 21.52 87.99 296.53 33.35 59.39 39.29 1.32 0.95 3.02 2.85 1994 2.40 27.22 89.59 262.50 42.19 60.47 34.78 1.37 1.03 3.26 3.08 1995 2.70 26.67 88.34 244.02 41.33 59.63 32.33 1.33 1.37 4.34 4.10 1996 3.82 24.52 116.25 332.40 38.00 78.47 44.04 1.61 2.22 7.04 6.65 1997 2.67 24.87 83.99 345.22 38.55 56.69 45.74 1.41 1.26 4.00 3.78 1998 2.23 29.90 64.86 260.54 46.34 43.78 34.52 1.25 0.98 3.12 2.95 1999 1.92 23.59 58.77 231.88 36.56 39.67 30.72 1.07 0.85 2.68 2.54 2000 1.88 14.66 51.71 237.63 22.72 34.90 31.49 0.89 0.98 3.13 2.95 2001 1.90 15.75 62.46 253.98 24.41 42.16 33.65 1.00 0.90 2.86 2.70 2002 2.17 20.78 60.33 243.72 32.21 40.72 32.29 1.05 1.12 3.55 3.36 2003 2.29 28.65 72.15 251.36 44.40 48.70 33.31 1.26 1.02 3.25 3.07 2004 2.39 27.59 72.01 308.44 42.76 48.61 40.87 1.32 1.07 3.39 3.20 2005 1.90 28.42 51.33 288.09 44.04 34.65 38.17 1.17 0.73 2.33 2.20 2004 Jan. 2.52 29.26 101.63 360.63 45.35 68.60 47.78 1.62 0.90 2.87 2.71 Feb. 2.73 30.16 99.50 371.25 46.75 67.16 49.19 1.63 1.10 3.49 3.30 Mar. 2.89 30.56 83.20 383.00 47.37 56.16 50.75 1.54 1.35 4.28 4.04 I 2.71 29.99 94.78 371.63 46.49 63.97 49.24 1.60 1.12 3.54 3.35 Apr. 3.03 30.36 83.20 390.38 47.06 56.16 51.73 1.55 1.48 4.70 4.44 May 2.90 30.34 84.25 344.10 47.03 56.87 45.59 1.49 1.41 4.46 4.22 June 2.76 28.36 70.50 332.50 43.96 47.59 44.06 1.36 1.40 4.46 4.21 II 2.90 29.69 79.32 355.66 46.01 53.54 47.12 1.47 1.43 4.54 4.29 July 2.26 27.33 64.50 NQ 42.36 43.54 39.75 1.26 1.00 3.19 3.01 Aug. 2.17 25.61 60.60 267.50 39.70 40.91 35.44 1.16 1.01 3.20 3.03 Sept. 1.98 25.07 59.88 256.88 38.86 40.42 34.04 1.13 0.85 2.69 2.54 III 2.14 26.00 61.66 262.19 40.31 41.62 34.74 1.17 0.97 3.08 2.91 Oct. 1.77 23.10 54.75 241.25 35.81 36.96 31.97 1.05 0.72 2.29 2.17 Nov. 1.79 24.24 48.90 238.00 37.57 33.01 31.54 1.02 0.77 2.44 2.31 Dec. 1.87 26.67 53.25 253.63 41.34 35.94 33.61 1.11 0.76 2.42 2.28 IV 1.81 24.67 52.30 244.29 38.24 35.30 32.37 1.06 0.75 2.38 2.25 2005 Jan. 1.86 27.41 53.63 245.63 42.49 36.20 32.55 1.11 0.75 2.37 2.24 Feb. 1.86 27.58 51.38 232.50 42.75 34.68 30.81 1.08 0.78 2.47 2.33 Mar. 1.97 28.08 51.90 240.50 43.52 35.03 31.87 1.10 0.87 2.75 2.60 I 1.90 27.69 52.30 239.54 42.92 35.30 31.74 1.10 0.80 2.53 2.39 Apr. 1.94 29.29 51.75 246.25 45.40 34.93 32.63 1.13 0.81 2.57 2.43 May 1.93 30.65 52.80 274.60 47.51 35.64 36.38 1.20 0.73 2.33 2.20 June 2.02 30.73 50.63 322.13 47.63 34.18 42.68 1.24 0.78 2.46 2.33 II 1.96 30.22 51.73 280.99 46.85 34.92 37.23 1.19 0.77 2.46 2.32 July 2.20 30.01 50.38 334.25 46.52 34.01 44.29 1.25 0.95 3.02 2.86 Aug. 1.98 28.83 51.90 327.70 44.69 35.03 43.42 1.23 0.75 2.38 2.25 Sept. 1.75 27.75 47.13 294.75 43.01 31.81 39.05 1.14 0.61 1.94 1.83 III 1.98 28.86 49.80 318.90 44.74 33.62 42.25 1.21 0.77 2.45 2.31 Oct. 1.67 27.50 51.75 300.00 42.63 34.93 39.75 1.17 0.50 1.58 1.49 Nov. 1.75 27.08 50.10 319.00 41.97 33.82 42.27 1.18 0.57 1.81 1.71 Dec. 1.89 26.08 52.63 319.75 40.42 35.53 42.37 1.18 0.71 2.24 2.12 IV 1.77 26.89 51.49 312.92 41.67 34.76 41.46 1.18 0.59 1.88 1.77 2006 Jan. 1.98 25.22 55.75 303.75 39.09 37.63 40.25 1.17 0.81 2.57 2.43 Feb. 2.07 23.65 57.75 259.38 36.66 38.98 34.37 1.10 0.97 3.08 2.91 Mar. 2.04 22.61 61.63 263.75 35.05 41.60 34.95 1.12 0.92 2.93 2.77 I 2.03 23.83 58.38 275.63 36.93 39.40 36.52 1.13 0.90 2.86 2.70 1/ Reported prices are Illinois points. These corn values represent country elevator producer bid prices and do not reflect the additional costs of handling and transporting the corn to Midwest processing plants. NQ = no quote. Sources: "Grain and Feed Market News ," Agricultural Marketing Service, Livestock and Seed Division; Economic Research Service, USDA, byproduct credits and net cost calculations.

67 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 26--U.S. use of field corn, by crop year 1/ Description 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2/ 2/

HFCS 473 492 513 530 540 530 541 532 530 521 535 537 Glucose syrup and dextrose 227 233 229 219 222 218 217 219 228 222 225 227

Total corn sweetener 700 725 742 749 761 748 758 751 758 743 760 764

Corn starch 226 238 246 240 251 247 246 256 272 278 280 285

Wet milling excluding alcohol 926 963 988 989 1,013 995 1,003 1,007 1,030 1,021 1,040 1,049

Alcohol Fuel 396 429 481 526 566 628 714 996 1,168 1,323 1,600 2,150 Beverage 125 130 133 127 130 130 131 131 132 133 135 135 Total 521 559 614 653 696 758 845 1,127 1,300 1,456 1,735 2,285

Total 1,447 1,522 1,602 1,642 1,709 1,753 1,848 2,133 2,329 2,477 2,775 3,334

U.S. corn crop 7,374 9,233 9,207 9,759 9,431 9,915 9,503 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,112 10,550

Corn sweetener share 9.49 7.85 8.06 7.67 8.07 7.54 7.97 8.38 7.51 6.29 6.84 7.24

Wet milling excluding alcohol share 12.56 10.43 10.73 10.13 10.74 10.04 10.56 11.23 10.21 8.64 9.36 9.94

Alcohol share 7.07 6.05 6.67 6.69 7.38 7.64 8.89 12.56 12.88 12.33 15.61 21.66

Total 19.62 16.48 17.40 16.83 18.12 17.68 19.45 23.79 23.09 20.97 24.97 31.60 1/ September/August crop year. 2/ Forecast. Source: Economic Research Service, USDA.

68 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 27--U.S. maple syrup production and value, by state, calendar years State and Region 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Production -- 1,000 Gallons New England: Connecticut 7 10 9 9 13 7 9 10 10 11 10 Maine 162 167 185 170 195 250 200 275 285 290 265 Massachusetts2949444744393448375040 New Hampshire6489766761754583608357 Vermont 365 550 395 360 370 460 275 510 420 500 410 Total 627 865 709 653 683 831 563 926 812 934 782

Northeast: New York 208 343 269 231 195 210 193 260 210 255 222

Midwest: Pennsylvania4371637267476960526061 Ohio 65 90 95 78 95 34 96 75 51 78 69 Michigan 55 88 75 55 73 44 60 75 59 80 58 Minnesota 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wisconsin 98 110 87 70 75 65 68 79 76 100 50 Total 261 359 320 275 310 190 293 289 238 318 238

U.S. Total 1,096 1,567 1,298 1,159 1,188 1,231 1,049 1,475 1,260 1,507 1,242

Value of Production -- 1,000 dollars New England: Connecticut 281 427 375 370 556 307 411 472 486 569 -- Maine 2,965 3,657 3,663 3,502 3,783 3,550 3,740 5,335 6,413 5,626 -- Massachusetts 1,105 1,906 1,637 1,701 1,707 1,474 1,380 1,896 1,550 2,315 -- New Hampshire 2,413 3,311 3,055 2,425 2,281 2,858 1,800 3,411 2,580 2,938 -- Vermont 10,147 14,575 10,902 10,440 10,730 13,800 8,470 13,770 11,676 13,650 -- Total 16,911 23,876 19,632 18,438 19,057 21,989 15,801 24,884 22,705 25,098 --

Northeast: New York 4,888 8,747 6,752 6,202 5,324 6,090 5,694 6,838 5,628 7,191 --

Midwest: Pennsylvania 1,079 1,747 1,638 1,872 1,742 1,335 1,746 1,602 1,425 1,740 -- Ohio 1,872 2,565 2,926 2,324 2,850 1,166 3,005 2,423 1,790 2,496 -- Michigan 1,480 2,737 2,363 1,760 2,058 1,544 1,782 2,438 1,841 3,040 -- Minnesota ------Wisconsin 2,489 2,497 1,905 1,617 1,778 1,800 1,986 2,315 2,212 3,230 -- Total 6,920 9,546 8,832 7,573 8,428 5,845 8,519 8,778 7,268 10,506 --

U.S. Total 28,719 42,169 35,216 32,213 32,809 33,924 30,014 40,500 35,601 42,795 --

Price per gallon -- dollars New England: Connecticut 40.14 42.70 41.67 41.11 42.77 43.86 45.67 47.20 48.60 51.73 -- Maine 18.30 21.90 19.80 20.60 19.40 14.20 18.70 19.40 22.50 19.40 -- Massachusetts 38.10 38.90 37.20 36.19 38.80 37.79 40.59 39.50 41.89 46.30 -- New Hampshire 37.70 37.20 40.20 36.19 37.39 38.11 40.00 41.10 43.00 35.40 -- Vermont 27.80 26.50 27.60 29.00 29.00 30.00 30.80 27.00 27.80 27.30 -- Total 26.97 27.60 27.69 28.24 27.90 26.46 28.07 26.87 27.96 26.87 --

Northeast: New York 23.50 25.50 25.10 26.85 27.30 29.00 29.50 26.30 26.80 28.20 --

Midwest: Pennsylvania 25.09 24.61 26.00 26.00 26.00 28.40 25.30 26.70 27.40 29.00 -- Ohio 28.80 28.50 30.80 29.79 30.00 34.29 31.30 32.31 35.10 32.00 -- Michigan 26.91 31.10 31.51 32.00 28.19 35.09 29.70 32.51 31.20 38.00 -- Minnesota Wisconsin 25.40 22.70 21.90 23.10 23.71 27.69 29.21 29.30 29.11 32.30 -- Total 26.51 26.59 27.60 27.54 27.19 30.76 29.08 30.37 30.54 33.04 --

U.S. Total 26.20 26.90 27.10 27.80 27.60 27.56 28.61 27.46 28.25 28.40 -- -- = not available Source: Crop Production , National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

69 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 28--U.S. honey production, imports, exports, stocks, and average price, by calendar year Crop Colonies 1/ Yield Production Imports Exports Stocks 2/ Average Stocks- year Price to-use Thousands Pounds Million pounds Cents per Percent per colony pound

1986 3,205 62.5 200.4 120.0 9.2 27.7 51.1 8.6 1987 3,190 71.1 226.8 58.3 12.4 34.1 50.3 12.2 1988 3,219 66.3 214.1 55.9 14.0 32.7 50.0 12.0 1989 3,443 51.4 177.0 77.3 9.9 33.2 49.8 13.1 1990 3,210 61.6 197.8 77.0 12.4 31.1 53.7 11.2 1991 3,181 68.9 219.2 92.3 9.6 36.4 55.6 11.9 1992 3,030 72.8 220.6 114.6 10.4 39.1 55.0 11.7 1993 2,875 80.2 230.6 133.6 8.5 49.0 53.9 13.8 1994 2,783 78.4 218.2 123.2 8.3 59.9 52.8 18.1 1995 2,655 79.5 211.1 88.6 9.3 42.3 68.5 13.3 1996 2,581 77.3 199.5 150.6 9.9 47.2 88.8 13.7 1997 2,631 74.7 196.5 167.4 8.9 70.7 75.2 20.8 1998 2,633 83.7 220.3 132.4 10.4 80.8 65.5 23.6 1999 2,688 76.4 205.3 182.5 11.1 79.4 60.1 20.4 2000 2,620 84.1 220.3 198.2 10.1 85.3 59.7 20.7 2001 2,506 74.0 185.5 144.8 7.4 64.6 70.4 18.4 2002 2,574 66.7 171.7 202.6 6.9 39.4 132.7 9.9 2003 2,599 69.9 181.7 200.4 6.9 40.7 138.7 10.7 2004 2,556 71.8 183.6 178.6 7.8 61.2 106.9 17.9 2005 2,410 72.5 174.6 232.7 7.6 62.4 90.4 15.4 1/ Data include only beekeepers with five or more colonies. 2/ Stocks held by producers. Sources: Honey, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, and U.S. Census Bureau.

70 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 29--Honey: number of colonies, yield, production, stocks, price, and value by top producing States and United States 1/ Year Honey Yield per Production Stocks Average Value of Producing Colony Dec. 15 2/ Price per Production Colonies Pound 1,000 Pounds ------1,000 Pounds------Cents 1,000 Dollars United States 1986 3,271 63 204,438 27,704 51 104,468 1987 3,316 71 235,436 34,090 50 118,424 1988 3,370 66 222,757 32,685 50 111,379 1989 3,528 51 180,634 33,192 50 89,956 1990 3,220 62 198,674 31,093 54 106,688 1991 3,211 69 220,917 36,420 56 122,830 1992 3,045 73 221,676 39,061 55 121,922 1993 2,875 80 230,575 49,046 54 124,280 1994 2,783 78 218,187 59,877 53 115,203 1995 2,655 80 211,073 42,313 69 144,585 1996 2,581 77 199,511 47,206 89 177,166 1997 2,631 75 196,536 70,696 75 147,795 1998 2,633 84 220,311 80,808 66 144,304 1999 2,688 76 205,250 79,375 60 126,075 2000 2,620 84 220,339 85,328 60 132,742 2001 2,506 74 185,461 64,556 70 132,225 2002 2,574 67 171,718 39,393 133 228,338 2003 2,599 70 181,727 40,735 139 253,106 2004 2,556 72 183,582 61,222 107 196,259 2005 2,410 73 174,643 62,406 90 157,795 California 1986 520 52 27,040 3,515 54 14,602 1987 540 33 17,820 1,782 49 8,732 1988 600 40 24,000 2,160 49 11,760 1989 620 34 21,080 3,162 49 10,329 1990 480 42 20,160 2,218 54 10,886 1991 550 63 34,650 3,465 54 18,711 1992 490 67 32,830 4,268 52 17,072 1993 500 90 45,000 7,200 50 22,500 1994 400 60 24,000 6,480 51 12,240 1995 420 93 39,060 4,687 63 24,608 1996 390 70 27,300 4,641 84 22,932 1997 420 75 31,500 9,450 70 22,050 1998 450 83 37,350 12,326 62 23,157 1999 505 60 30,300 10,302 55 16,665 2000 440 70 30,800 11,396 59 18,172 2001 425 65 27,625 7,735 69 19,061 2002 470 50 23,500 3,525 132 31,020 2003 480 67 32,160 6,432 139 44,702 2004 390 45 17,550 5,792 101 17,726 2005 400 75 30,000 9,300 84 25,200 North Dakota 1986 300 107 32,100 1,926 45 14,445 1987 300 110 33,000 3,630 45 14,850 1988 250 66 16,500 1,650 43 7,095 1989 310 56 17,360 1,215 47 8,159 1990 220 82 18,040 722 52 9,381 1991 215 103 22,145 3,100 54 11,958 1992 240 91 21,840 2,184 53 11,575 1993 220 90 19,800 2,772 52 10,296 1994 235 138 32,430 7,459 48 15,566 1995 220 108 23,760 3,802 67 15,919 1996 230 86 19,780 4,945 90 17,802 1997 245 100 24,500 7,350 74 18,130 1998 230 128 29,440 8,832 63 18,547 1999 255 105 26,775 8,836 59 15,797 2000 300 115 34,500 13,800 57 19,665 2001 280 96 26,880 9,408 69 18,547 2002 320 75 24,000 8,160 146 35,040 2003 340 87 29,580 6,803 136 40,229 2004 390 78 30,420 9,126 102 31,028 2005 370 91 33,670 8,418 81 27,273 See footnotes at end of table. Continued--

71 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 29--Honey: number of colonies, yield, production, stocks, price, and value by top producing States and United States 1/ Year Honey Yield per Production Stocks Average Value of Producing Colony Dec. 15 2/ Price per Production Colonies Pound 1,000 Pounds ------1,000 Pounds------Cents 1,000 Dollars South Dakota 1986 201 113 22,713 5,224 46 10,448 1987 260 134 34,840 5,574 46 16,026 1988 245 74 18,130 2,901 46 8,340 1989 235 49 11,515 2,072 46 5,297 1990 245 81 19,845 3,771 50 9,923 1991 225 101 22,725 4,091 54 12,272 1992 240 85 20,400 3,264 53 10,812 1993 245 98 24,010 4,322 52 12,485 1994 260 100 26,000 8,580 52 13,520 1995 240 85 20,400 4,896 71 14,484 1996 240 97 23,280 6,751 90 20,952 1997 240 65 15,600 8,736 74 11,544 1998 225 95 21,375 10,901 64 13,680 1999 224 104 23,296 13,046 60 13,978 2000 235 121 28,435 12,796 58 16,492 2001 235 65 15,275 12,220 71 10,845 2002 225 51 11,475 2,410 142 16,295 2003 215 70 15,050 2,709 143 21,522 2004 215 105 22,575 13,545 100 22,575 2005 220 79 17,380 11,818 76 13,209 Florida 1986 290 75 21,750 2,828 53 11,528 1987 240 79 18,960 1,327 49 9,290 1988 240 105 25,200 2,385 51 12,852 1989 250 60 15,000 1,050 48 7,200 1990 220 95 20,900 1,881 48 10,032 1991 225 83 18,675 1,307 53 9,898 1992 220 104 22,880 2,517 53 12,126 1993 200 113 22,600 2,712 50 11,300 1994 230 84 19,320 2,898 47 9,080 1995 230 86 19,780 1,780 64 12,659 1996 240 105 25,200 2,268 86 21,672 1997 240 67 16,080 2,734 73 11,738 1998 230 98 22,540 4,508 64 14,426 1999 228 102 23,256 4,186 53 12,326 2000 232 105 24,360 2,923 54 13,154 2001 220 100 22,000 3,432 64 14,080 2002 220 93 20,460 2,060 114 23,324 2003 210 71 14,910 1,491 132 19,681 2004 205 98 20,090 2,009 100 20,090 2005 160 86 13,760 2,477 87 11,971 Minnesota 1986 136 78 10,608 636 47 4,986 1987 160 108 17,280 1,382 46 7,949 1988 160 129 20,640 2,064 43 8,875 1989 165 92 15,180 3,492 45 6,831 1990 170 74 12,580 1,384 49 6,164 1991 180 91 16,380 2,457 54 8,845 1992 190 90 17,100 3,591 54 9,234 1993 180 80 14,400 2,160 53 7,632 1994 170 79 13,430 2,149 52 6,984 1995 165 82 13,530 1,218 70 9,471 1996 150 77 11,550 1,617 90 10,395 1997 145 73 10,585 2,011 74 7,833 1998 140 79 11,060 2,765 65 7,189 1999 145 82 11,890 3,210 61 7,253 2000 150 90 13,500 3,105 57 7,695 2001 135 81 10,935 1,859 65 7,108 2002 117 73 8,541 1,110 147 12,555 2003 120 83 9,960 1,892 144 14,342 2004 135 75 10,125 1,924 104 10,530 2005 120 74 8,880 1,598 83 7,370 See footnotes at end of table. Continued--

72 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 29--Honey: number of colonies, yield, production, stocks, price, and value by top producing States and United States 1/ Year Honey Yield per Production Stocks Average Value of Producing Colony Dec. 15 2/ Price per Production Colonies Pound 1,000 Pounds ------1,000 Pounds------Cents 1,000 Dollars Montana 1986 110 64 7,040 211 50 3,520 1987 95 102 9,690 1,066 44 4,264 1988 105 48 5,040 151 47 2,369 1989 100 63 6,300 819 47 2,961 1990 98 81 7,938 1,191 54 4,287 1991 86 92 7,912 1,187 57 4,510 1992 87 110 9,570 1,818 55 5,264 1993 95 98 9,310 1,583 54 5,027 1994 119 105 12,495 3,624 52 6,497 1995 106 80 8,480 1,781 72 6,106 1996 117 60 7,020 1,825 88 6,178 1997 107 120 12,840 4,237 74 9,502 1998 115 122 14,030 5,472 64 8,979 1999 122 70 8,540 2,135 60 5,124 2000 124 88 10,912 4,692 59 6,438 2001 136 102 13,872 4,578 67 9,294 2002 134 63 8,442 1,097 138 11,650 2003 145 66 9,570 1,914 144 13,781 2004 140 77 10,780 3,773 105 11,319 2005 130 67 8,710 3,136 80 6,968 Texas 1986 129 62 7,998 880 52 4,159 1987 120 74 8,880 1,598 50 4,440 1988 124 76 9,424 848 46 4,335 1989 140 56 7,840 1,647 49 3,842 1990 140 67 9,380 1,501 59 5,534 1991 140 78 10,920 1,201 54 5,897 1992 125 85 10,625 1,488 52 5,525 1993 105 82 8,610 2,755 51 4,391 1994 103 74 7,622 2,058 50 3,811 1995 84 106 8,904 1,959 67 5,966 1996 82 83 6,806 1,361 85 5,785 1997 94 106 9,964 3,188 75 7,473 1998 91 77 7,007 1,612 62 4,344 1999 108 81 8,748 2,799 64 5,599 2000 105 79 8,295 2,986 57 4,728 2001 97 79 7,663 1,533 65 4,981 2002 114 67 7,638 985 114 8,707 2003 140 67 9,380 1,126 140 13,132 2004 116 76 8,816 1,411 95 8,375 2005 84 71 5,964 954 85 5,069 Michigan 1986 93 56 5,208 990 51 2,656 1987 93 68 6,324 1,202 53 3,352 1988 95 73 6,935 1,456 53 3,676 1989 102 70 7,140 1,642 56 3,998 1990 100 80 8,000 2,560 56 4,480 1991 105 73 7,665 2,683 57 4,369 1992 95 68 6,460 2,067 59 3,811 1993 90 77 6,930 2,980 57 3,950 1994 90 86 7,740 3,870 55 4,257 1995 97 92 8,924 3,570 78 6,961 1996 90 96 8,640 4,320 101 8,726 1997 85 70 5,950 3,273 77 4,582 1998 80 85 6,800 3,672 66 4,488 1999 73 85 6,205 3,475 66 4,095 2000 72 75 5,400 2,970 60 3,240 2001 76 60 4,560 2,827 81 3,694 2002 72 77 5,544 1,885 140 7,762 2003 65 74 4,810 1,732 141 6,782 2004 65 67 4,355 2,439 114 4,965 2005 65 68 4,420 2,519 99 4,376 See footnotes at end of table. Continued-- 73 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 29--Honey: number of colonies, yield, production, stocks, price, and value by top producing States and United States 1/ Year Honey Yield per Production Stocks Average Value of Producing Colony Dec. 15 2/ Price per Production Colonies Pound 1,000 Pounds ------1,000 Pounds------Cents 1,000 Dollars Wisconsin 1986 94 50 4,700 987 52 2,444 1987 92 97 8,924 1,160 48 4,284 1988 102 99 10,098 2,323 54 5,453 1989 108 74 7,992 1,598 57 4,555 1990 112 75 8,400 1,512 57 4,788 1991 110 67 7,370 1,843 56 4,127 1992 105 66 6,930 1,525 58 4,019 1993 100 82 8,200 4,100 59 4,838 1994 75 71 5,325 1,864 60 3,195 1995 73 79 5,767 2,134 70 4,037 1996 69 78 5,382 2,422 90 4,844 1997 79 60 4,740 2,797 90 4,266 1998 89 91 8,099 5,264 72 5,831 1999 80 75 6,000 4,560 68 4,080 2000 84 90 7,560 4,385 68 5,141 2001 67 81 5,427 3,419 82 4,450 2002 70 95 6,650 2,461 134 8,911 2003 74 77 5,698 2,678 147 8,376 2004 68 86 5,848 2,632 119 6,959 2005 64 83 5,312 2,922 114 6,056 Idaho 1986 115 45 5,175 621 51 2,639 1987 120 60 7,200 1,080 54 3,888 1988 127 53 6,731 1,144 43 2,894 1989 140 54 7,560 1,361 46 3,478 1990 140 40 5,600 784 48 2,688 1991 140 46 6,440 1,739 54 3,478 1992 135 51 6,885 1,308 52 3,580 1993 133 71 9,443 1,700 52 4,910 1994 127 59 7,493 1,274 52 3,896 1995 125 48 6,000 1,020 69 4,140 1996 110 45 4,950 1,535 88 4,356 1997 120 64 7,680 2,304 72 5,530 1998 120 50 6,000 2,220 65 3,900 1999 120 48 5,760 3,110 59 3,398 2000 100 47 4,700 2,679 52 2,444 2001 100 46 4,600 1,610 67 3,082 2002 100 57 5,700 1,653 137 7,809 2003 100 46 4,600 1,380 133 6,118 2004 100 63 6,300 2,520 99 6,237 2005 95 37 3,515 1,793 80 2,812 See footnotes at end of table. Continued--

74 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 29--Honey: number of colonies, yield, production, stocks, price, and value by top producing States and United States 1/ Year Honey Yield per Production Stocks Average Value of Producing Colony Dec. 15 2/ Price per Production Colonies Pound 1,000 Pounds ------1,000 Pounds------Cents 1,000 Dollars Nebraska 1986 100 76 7,600 532 47 3,572 1987 110 90 9,900 1,980 44 4,356 1988 113 96 10,848 1,410 45 4,882 1989 119 62 7,378 1,476 46 3,394 1990 118 56 6,608 1,189 49 3,238 1991 108 67 7,236 1,302 53 3,835 1992 96 75 7,200 792 53 3,816 1993 83 70 5,810 930 53 3,079 1994 72 55 3,960 1,465 56 2,218 1995 60 73 4,380 1,402 73 3,197 1996 65 75 4,875 1,755 92 4,485 1997 61 67 4,087 2,738 77 3,147 1998 64 70 4,480 2,240 86 3,853 1999 58 77 4,466 1,965 61 2,724 2000 50 87 4,350 2,610 59 2,567 2001 43 48 2,064 1,115 72 1,486 2002 43 75 3,225 1,161 149 4,805 2003 45 74 3,330 1,299 138 4,595 2004 51 89 4,539 2,043 97 4,403 2005 40 68 2,720 2,530 89 2,421 All Others 1986 1,183 44 52,506 9,354 56 29,469 1987 1,186 53 62,618 12,309 59 36,993 1988 1,209 57 69,211 14,193 56 38,848 1989 1,239 45 56,289 13,658 53 29,912 1990 1,177 52 61,223 12,380 58 35,287 1991 1,127 52 58,799 12,045 59 34,930 1992 1,022 58 58,956 14,239 60 35,088 1993 924 61 56,462 15,832 60 33,872 1994 902 65 58,372 18,156 58 33,939 1995 835 62 52,088 14,064 71 37,037 1996 798 69 54,728 13,766 90 49,039 1997 795 67 53,010 21,878 79 42,000 1998 799 65 52,130 20,996 69 35,910 1999 770 65 50,014 21,751 70 35,036 2000 728 65 47,527 20,986 69 33,006 2001 692 64 44,560 14,820 80 35,597 2002 689 68 46,543 12,886 130 60,460 2003 665 64 42,679 11,279 140 59,846 2004 681 62 42,184 14,008 123 52,052 2005 662 61 40,312 14,941 112 45,070 1/ Data include only beekeepers with five or more colonies. 2/ Stocks held by producers. Sources: Honey, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

75 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Table 30--U.S. Honey Imports, by importing country, calendar year Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Chile China Mexico Thailand Uruguay Vietnam Rest-of- Total World World ------Million Pounds------

1989 10.5 0.2 0.4 27.4 0.0 24.9 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 77.3 1990 19.4 2.5 0.2 7.6 0.0 25.5 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 77.0 1991 20.4 0.1 0.0 14.2 0.1 44.8 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 92.3 1992 31.1 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 60.1 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 114.6 1993 36.0 2.5 0.0 12.0 0.0 76.8 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 133.6 1994 40.3 1.3 0.0 10.2 0.0 64.7 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 123.2 1995 27.6 0.1 0.0 26.5 0.0 27.5 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 88.6 1996 68.3 2.9 0.0 17.6 0.7 42.8 12.1 0.0 0.8 1.6 3.6 150.6 1997 107.1 2.4 0.0 8.7 0.6 25.3 14.6 0.0 0.7 2.0 6.1 167.4 1998 69.5 0.3 0.0 15.5 0.1 30.5 7.6 0.0 0.2 6.5 2.1 132.4 1999 91.6 0.8 0.0 26.6 0.0 51.0 7.5 0.0 0.3 3.4 1.3 182.5 2000 99.2 0.2 0.3 28.6 0.0 59.1 4.6 0.4 0.1 4.2 1.8 198.5 2001 45.1 0.9 0.3 23.3 2.0 39.1 9.4 2.9 5.5 12.7 3.7 144.8 2002 19.2 5.1 11.8 43.2 5.9 16.7 25.5 9.8 13.2 31.6 20.6 202.6 2003 9.8 0.2 16.1 25.6 10.0 50.3 16.2 1.8 11.7 17.6 41.1 200.4 2004 8.0 1.7 8.1 22.4 1.9 59.3 7.2 1.7 6.9 21.6 39.7 178.6 2005 49.9 0.6 8.3 22.6 2.2 64.7 3.2 1.1 8.8 29.9 41.1 232.7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

76 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA Contacts and Links

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77 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-246/May 30, 2006 Economic Research Service, USDA