V24, N40 Thursday, July 25, 2019

5th CD going ‘D’ would be historic The old 6th CD morphed into the current 5th, revealing a tough road ahead for Hale, Democrats By BRIAN A. HOWEY CARMEL – Ever since the cur- rent congressional district maps came into play in 2012, we have witnessed a decade where no district has changed parties. Thus, we have an historic anomaly given that the maps drawn in 1981, 1991 and 2001 all produced at least a handful of com- petitive seats that changed hands. In the final election cycle for the current maps, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and Indiana the Cook Partisan Index of 2017 listing the 5th CD as a +9 Democrats now say that the 5th CD is on the verge of Republican district. “purple” status and will be competitive in 2020, despite Continued on page 3 The Mueller bookend By BRIAN A. HOWEY BALTIMORE – There were no bombshells. There were no declarations of a “cancer on the presidency.” If, some how, some way an impeachment of President Trump clears the U.S. House some time between now and the “I’ve seen a number of challeng- November 2020, there is zero chance for a conviction in the Republican- es to our democracy. The Rus- controlled Senate. sian government’s effort to inter- The yield from Wednesday’s long awaited testimony from former spe- fere in our election is among the cial counsel Robert Mueller was an- most serious. This deserves the other venue for the political circus in Washington, and a startlingly shaky attention of every American.” performance from the star witness. If you’re a Democrat or someone - Former Special Counsel who distrusts or loathes President Robert Mueller, to the Trump, the headline produced by House Judiciary Committee Page 2

House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler lenges to our democracy. The Russian was whether Mueller’s Russian collu- government’s effort to interfere in our sion probe cleared the president of election is among the most serious. obstruction of justice. This deserves the attention of every “The president was not ex- American.” culpated for the acts that he allegedly But, he added, members of committed,” Mueller answered. the Trump campaign “did not con- In another exchange, spire.” Nadler asked directly whether the re- Mueller warned that he fears Howey Politics Indiana port totally exonerated the president. a “new normal” of foreign election “No,” Mueller said. “It is not interference. “I hope this is not the WWWHowey Media, LLC what the report said. Based on Justice new normal. But I fear it is,” he said. 405 Massachusetts Ave., Department policy and principles of Earlier this year Trump said he was Suite 300 , IN fairness, we decided we would not open to foreign intelligence for his 46204 make a determination as to whether campaign, but eventually backtracked www.howeypolitics.com the president committed a crime. That after the FEC chief warned it would be was our decision then and it remains illegal. our decision today.” Mueller acknowledged Brian A. Howey, Publisher But ranking Republican Rep. during questions from Democrats that Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Doug Collins was prescient when he the Kremlin wanted Trump to defeat Cam Carter, copy editor observed in his Democratic Joel Weyrauch, copy editor opening statement, nominee Hillary “The president did Clinton. Mary Lou Howey, Editor not obstruct justice “Did your Jack Howey, editor emeritus and nothing will investigation find change those facts.” that the Russian Republican government per- Subscriptions members attempted ceived it would HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 to expand the field, benefit from one HPI Weekly, $350 peppering the fum- of the candidates Ray Volpe, Account Manager bling Mueller with winning?” he 317.602.3620 questions about the was asked. Steele dossier and the conduct of FBI Mueller responded, “Yes.” email: [email protected] agents like Peter Strozk. “And which candidate would And Republican Rep. John that be?” Contact HPI Ratcliffe took direct aim at Mueller, Mueller: “Well, it would be saying that DOJ mandates were not Trump. The president.” [email protected] designed to exonerate Trump, cit- Mueller agreed, in answer Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ing “extraprosecutorial analysis” by to Rep. Ted Lieu, that the reason he Washington: 202.256.5822 “Democrats and socialists.” He said, did not indict President Trump was the Business Office: 317.602.3620 “Volume II was not authorized” and DOJ opinion that a sitting president added that while “no one should be cannot be indicted. “The reason again above the law, Donald Trump sure that you did not indict Donald Trump © 2019, Howey Politics shouldn’t be below the law, which is is because of the OLC opinion stating Indiana. All rights reserved. where this report puts him.” that you cannot indict a sitting Presi- Photocopying, Internet forward- As for collusion, which dent, correct?” Lieu asked. ing, faxing or reproducing in Trump has repeatedly denied, Mueller Mueller: “That is correct.” any form, whole or part, is a explained, “We did not address collu- An hour into the hearing, sion, which is not a legal term.” President Trump weighed in, tweeting, violation of federal law without Perhaps the most important “This has been a disaster for the Dem- permission from the publisher. part of Mueller’s testimony broached ocrats and a disaster for the reputa- the Russian assault on the 2016 elec- tion of Robert Mueller.” He added, “It tion. “Certain points bear emphasis,” has been reported that Robert Mueller Mueller said. “The Russian govern- is saying that he did not apply and ment interfered in sweeping and interview for the job of FBI Director systemic fashion. Over the course of (and get turned down) the day before my career, I’ve seen a number of chal- he was wrongfully appointed Special Page 3

Counsel. Hope he doesn’t say that under oath in that we That’s not saying there won’t be more legal or have numerous witnesses to the ... interview, including the ethical bombhsells between now and the election. Mueller Vice President of the United States!” sent a trove of information to the Southern District of New The political strategists were not impressed. Re- York beyond the scope of the Russian collusion probe. The publican Dick Morris observed, “Mueller appears rambling, New York General Assembly has passed a law and Gov. somewhat senile, not alert. Not the impressive figure I Cuomo has signed that could reveal Trump’s state tax re- thought he would be. Superman loses his cape.” turns. There’s the payoff to porn star Stormy Daniels that And Democrat David Axelrod added, “This is deli- could collide with campaign finance laws. And there’s the cate to say, but Mueller, whom I deeply respect, has not sordid Jeffrey Epstein scandal that could produce shrapnel publicly testified before Congress in at least six years. And anywhere from the Clinton to Trump worlds and a variety he does not appear as sharp as he was then. What Mueller of blue bloods in between. appears to be promising is a deeply unsatisfying five hours Trump is also sliding across the political straight for those who expect him to blaze new trails. Mueller basi- razor. He is charging up his base with the “send her home” cally signals he will not color outside the lines of the report rhetoric many deem racist (including 58% in a Morning on questions of the president’s conduct.” Consult/Politico Poll). His problem on a 2016 repeat is that Ari Fleischer, the former spokesman for President he won’t be running against Hillary Clinton (though Eliza- George W. Bush, added, “I hope the Ds realize it’s time to beth Warren might be an applicable stand-in). give it up. How many swings and misses do they want? As we’ve written many times before, Trump’s Collusion! Didn’t happen. Campaign finance violations! approval should be in the 60th percentile with the robust Case was closed. Emoluments! Shot down in court. Muel- economy. There are problems on that front, with a U.S./ ler! He’s not helping. Pelosi is right. The impeachment Ds Chinese trade deal nowhere close to be done, which con- are hurting their party.” tinues to unnerve Hoosier farmers and industrialists who fear a permanent loss of markets. The racial red meat will Now what? turn off moderates and independents, though we’ve seen President Trump’s political fate will almost certainly some focus groups showing that the Obama voters who be decided by voters in November 2020. Impeachment is went Trump in 2016 believe immigration is a key issue. a Tom Steyer fantasy. Speaker Pelosi is reportedly feeling But from a political view point, this appears to be “vindicated” by her original assessment. the final bookend to the Mueller saga. v

Terry Henderson of Atlanta, Ind., and former legisla- 5th CD, from page 1 tor Steve Braun, who ran unsuccessfully in 2018 for the 4th CD nomination (he actually lives in the 5th). Others In our view, the assertion that the 5th CD is in- seriously weighing credible bids include State Sens. John deed “purple” should be met with a healthy dose of skepti- Ruckelshaus and , former state senator Mike cism. Delph, Fishers Deputy Mayor Leah McGrath, State Trea- It has drawn a top-tier competitor – 2016 lieu- surer Kelly Mitchell and possibly former Indianapolis mayor tenant governor nominee Greg Ballard. Rev. Micah Christina Hale (pictured on Beckwith has already filed a page 1) – into the race for the committee with the FEC. Democratic nomination, which Delph has a history of looks to be a showdown with raising money during the 2018 nominee Dee Thornton. three Senate races he won Hale raised $100,000 in the and the 2018 race he lost. first four days of her cam- Delph’s loss to gay Demo- paign, more than Thornton cratic State Sen. J.D. Ford is raised in the entire 2018 cycle a DCCC talking point that the ($73,000). This lends credence 5th CD will be competitive. to the notion that the 5th will No matter who emerges, be in play and Hale will be the GOP nominee almost a heavy favorite to win the certainly will be well-funded. nomination. Holding on to the 5th will be The Republican field a top priority for both the is still unsettled, though there Former U.S. Rep. represented most of what is now Indiana Republican Central could be at least two potential Committee, the National self-funders: Businessman the 5th CD and never had a tough race from a Democrat. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) Republican Campaign Com- Page 4 mittee, Gov. Eric Holcomb and Vice subsequent terms. He never won President . with less than 62%. Historically, the 5th CD has Since 2002, Burton won had only one Democrat in the last the 5th with 71.9% in 2002, 30 years when Jim Jontz won an 71.8% in 2004, 64.9% in 2006 open seat after Republican U.S. Rep. (a Democratic wave year due to Elwood “Bud” Hillis retired in 1988. fallout from the Iraq War), 65.5% Jontz was able to exploit a chasm in in 2008, and with 62.1% in 2010. the Republican Party to defeat State He never had a well-funded, top- Sen. James Butcher. tier opponent; none of his races Trevor Foughty, who man- was considered competitive. aged U.S. Sen. ’s 2016 With the current maps, campaign and publishes at Capito- Burton bowed out in 2012 and landWashington.com, sees an apple held off former and oranges comparison when talking congressman and 2000 guberna- about the 5th CD. “Jim Jontz is the torial nominee David McIntosh by wrong thing to look at,” Foughty just 1% in the GOP primary. She explained. “Back in the 80’s, we went on to defeat Scott Reske had 10 districts. When we went to with 58% that year, then won nine districts in 2002, the number- with 65% in 2014, with 61.4% ing changed a bit. Howard and Grant in 2016, and over Dee Thornton counties were as far south and east with 56.7% in 2018. That last as the old Jontz 5th went. It also had race has sparked the “purple” half of Lake and Porter counties. The notion among Democrats. Jontz district actually is the southern Remember, 2018 saw a part of the current 1st District, and Democrat wave in response to the northern part of the current 4th.” the plethora of President Trump Foughty continued, “The controversies, with the party current 4th actually has most of picking up more than 40 seats Howard County, including Kokomo. nationally to retake the House. From the Jontz-era district, the cur- The wave just didn’t lap into any rent 5th just has the eastern part of Indiana districts. Brooks actually (Howard) county, and Grant County. out-performed her Cook Partisan If anything, you need to look at the Index +9 by 3%. Despite that 6th District that Dan Burton won in wave dynamic, Thornton wasn’t 1982. That has the most overlap with taken seriously and didn’t mount the current 5th District and helps to a credible campaign. understand how historically Republi- Not only that, but Demo- can it has been.” crat U.S. Sen. was So, Indiana lost a congres- soundly dispatched by Repub- sional seat after the 2000 Census and lican Mike Braun by 6% (51% the 5th CD morphed into what was to 45% with Libertarian Lucy known as the 6th CD. While Repub- The current 5th CD (top) and the one Jim Jontz won Brenton coming in at 3%), and lican defeated Jontz in in 1986. Democrats were only able to 1992, the maps in 2000 shifted U.S. pick up four General Assembly Rep. Dan Burton into the 5th. The old 6th CD was a reli- seats despite the vivid national tailwind. President Trump ably Republican district with the exception of eight years and Vice President Mike Pence were able to repeatedly fill when David W. Evans took advantage of the fallout from Indiana arenas throughout 2018. the Watergate scandal to win the seat in 1974. Before And Trump and Pence will be on the ballot in him, the only other post-World War II Democrat was Fred 2020. So will Gov. Eric Holcomb, who had a 61% favorable Wampler for a single term, riding a Democratic wave in rating in internal GOP polling, and a 50/24% spread in 1958. When the 1981 maps were drawn, the new 6th was the latest Morning Consult Poll. While Morning Consult put so Republican that Evans opted to challenge fellow Demo- Trump at +1 in his Indiana favorables - far below his 19% crat Rep. Andy Jacobs in another district in 1982 (he lost). plurality in 2016 - Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer notes Burton would win a five-way primary with 35% in 1982. that Trump swamped a well-funded Donnelly campaign Burton went on to defeat Democrat George Grabianowski while MAGA rallies drew overflow crowds. in the general election 65%–35%, beginning a string of 14 Indiana Democrats are trying to make the case Page 5 that the 5th will be in play. They note that Donnelly won the 5th outright 48.41% to 47.88%. Donnelly improved on 2016 Senate numbers in Marion and Hamilton counties by more than 8%; he improved on 2016 Senate numbers in CD5 by nearly 7% overall. Then there are the nested General As- sembly seats. In SD31 which overlaps with a large portion of CD5, every precinct shifted more Demo- cratic from 2014 to 2018 (2014 GOP congressional results used here as there was no SD31 Dem candidate in 2014). In 2016, State Rep. Todd Huston, who rep- resents a suburban legisla- tive district within CD5, won by 28%. He won by just 8% in 2018. Foughty explains, “Even though Donnelly won the 5th, he didn’t win any counties in the 5th except for Marion. Hamilton County may have been closer than normal, but Braun still won it handily (52-44%).” Braun also won Tipton County 66-28%, Howard 57-38%, Grant 61-38%, and Madison 51.8-42%. Foughty adds, “Mer- ritt and Delph’s races are also pointed to as being key indicators, but they also won The late Rep. Jim Jontz outside of Marion County. So (top) and former senator while Democrats may win Joe Donnelly. Marion County, and may do better than usual in Hamilton County, they still have a lot by a Republican who grew out of sync with constituents of district further north that is decidedly more Republican.” who live there. People expressed a lot of similar thinking. Worth remembering is that Donnelly ran his re- I just kept my head down, knocked on doors, showed up elect “as a moderate Democrat who sometimes supported at every community meeting, listened to the people who Trump’s agenda in a midterm year,” Foughty notes. “If he live there. I didn’t win by much, but I did flip that district had been up in a presidential year when he also had to an- and beat a six-term Republican incumbent.” swer questions about the platform of a Democratic presi- She points to Sen. J.D. Ford’s 2018 upset of dential candidate, then I’m not sure he would have won Delph and State Rep. Melanie Wright’s 2014 win as other the 5th District.” examples of Democratic traction in the 5th CD. “We’ve If the 5th were to be left intact after the 2020 seen a lot of political surprises here. I’m going to keep my Census and 2021 reapportionment, a case could be made head down and work real hard,” Hale told HPI. that it is gradually turning purple. Democrats are finding While Hale will be a frontrunner for the 2020 more traction in suburban districts, and the 5th’s southern Democratic nomination and likely raise more money than flank certainly fits that profile. perhaps any other Democrat, the headwinds she faces Hale acknowledges that she faces a tough race. will be strong and potentially persistent. It might take a “I’m sure that’s true,” she said Wednesday morning. But collapse of the Trump/Pence campaign to pull her in. it’s an open seat with Rep. Susan Brooks retirement, and, If Hale wins the 5th CD in November 2020, it she added, “It feels very much to me like 2012.” would be a significant, generational and historic achieve- That’s in reference to her upset victory of State ment. v Rep. Cindy Noe in HD87. “It’s similar. It’s a long-held seat Page 6

can do to a tax is cut it, like the only thing you can do with government is shrink it. But it didn’t work. We are what Buttigieg makes comes next. The New Deal era ended with Reagan. The Reagan era ends with us.” change of an era “It’s why I’m ready to deliver something complete- ly different,” Buttigieg said. appeal in Indiana Buttigieg said that skepticism drove his activism as a young adult. “As I made my way through high school, By BRIAN A. HOWEY I saw them tell us to keep cutting taxes on the wealthi- INDIANAPOLIS – Mayor Pete Buttigieg has re- est and it would somehow pay for itself,” he said. “As I turned to Indiana twice in the past three months in an entered college, I saw them tell us climate change wasn’t attempt to meld policy with politics. These two appear- really anything to worry about, and then keep saying it ances don’t include the mid- to even as the scientists’ predictions started coming true. late-June public offerings when he “Around the time I got my first job in the mid dealt with a police-action shooting 2000s, I saw them tell us to deregulate banks... what’s in South Bend involving a white the worst that could happen?” he continued with a nod officer and a black man in what to the 2008 financial collapse and the Great Recession of became a crisis management test. 2009. “As I started thinking about buying a home, I saw His speech in May at them tell us that American civilization pretty much de- in Bloomington put forth what was es- pended on blocking someone like me from ever being able sentially a doctrine to replace President Trump’s foreign to get married. Oh, and for some reason it was absolutely policy free-lancing with a Lugar-like integrated approach imperative that we invade Iraq, which would be quick and to a dangerous world filled with interlocking complexities. easy and reflect well on America in the new century.” A significant component of that was creating support from In Buttigieg’s view, “To come of age in the 21st middle America, where even rural communities find their century is to see virtually every major prediction and policy fates changing with decisions made in Beijing to Moscow advanced by the Republican Party in your adult lifetime fail to Tehran. before your eyes when put into practice. Nothing they say A week ago, Buttigieg addressed the national actually works in the real world. They say young people Young Democrat Convention at Union Station in downtown are idealistic. But we’re not Democrats because of our ide- Indianapolis. Here, he called for this young generation to usher out the Reagan era, just as Ronald Reagan had established the bookend to President Franklin D. Roos- evelt’s New Deal a half-century after its creation. “The young generation today is the largest and most diverse ever, and the size of our generation gives us the power to shape politics for the half-century to come,” Buttigieg told the Young Demo- crats. “So it’s good news that we are the most Democratic generation alive. It’s natural that our generation be the most skeptical ever of Republican policies.” Buttigieg said that President Trump is betraying Reagan conservatism. “This is how the conservative era comes to an end,” Buttigieg said. “Their movement is collapsing. That’s where I come in,” add- ing, “Young gets it done.” The 37-year-old gay mayor said that he sees an America “that lives in chapter,” explaining, “The New Deal era lasted for almost 50 years, until it came to an end with Reagan. And then the Rea- South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg addresses the National Young Democrats at Union gan era lasted the last 40 years, with even Station last week, making a generational appeal. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) Democrats acting like the only thing you Page 7 alism, we’re Democrats because of our reality.” Buttigieg’s speech came as he has estab- lished himself as a top- tier candidate. He leads Joe Biden, Bernie Sand- ers, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris in money, with an impressive $24.8 million haul at the end of the second quarter, and $22 million cash-on-hand. While he has slid in the national polls recently after the police-action shooting controversy in South Bend on June 16, Buttigieg has the funds to continue into the primary and caucus season early next year. Buttigieg said, “For too long, we have organized our whole pro- cess around the debate Mayor Buttigieg conducts the first presidential candidate over how much to accom- presser in Indiana since Barack Obama in 2008. (HPI Photos by modate or how much to Brian A. Howey) resist Republican policies. Now is our chance to ference was that Obama would be yards away, with change the conversation. media seated auditorium-style. The future president Now is our chance to set would field questions in an organized fashion with the the agenda and make exchange taking 15 or 20 minutes. them respond to what we This one was a frenetic six-minute interaction, with have to say. They want reporters staring directly into the klieg-lit pores of But- to change the subject tigieg’s face. The mayor was good-natured and at ease to the race and origin of with the bridled chaos. During the six-minute window, four progressive young there were no limits by staffers as to topics raised. congresswomen, so that Here is the exchange: everyone forgets what Question: African-Americans are obviously an those members of Con- important constituency. What are you doing to win their gress are actually working support? on – which, today, is rais- Buttigieg: First of all, we’ve laid out what I ing the minimum wage.” believe is the most comprehensive plan in the 2020 Following his field on what we’re specifically going to do to dismantle 20-minute speech be- systemic racism in this country. I’ve got a lot of work to fore an adoring crowd of do (to) go out and get support. We have to build up a young people, Buttigieg sense of familiarity with voters around the country. That conducted a six-minute will be a very important part of our strategy for the rest presser with Indiana of the year. media. The reporters and cameramen created a packed, Question: Bernie Sanders proposed a pledge not throbbing crescent in one tight corner of the elongated to accept campaign donations from pharma execs. Will you breakout room at Union Station. Buttigieg entered, stand- sign that? ing in a corner in front of his campaign logo, with report- Buttigieg: I’m proud of our grassroots fundrais- ers just feet away. It would be the first such presidential ing strategy. We’ve got over 400,000 contributors. We also campaign media avail here in Indiana since 2008, when don’t take corporate money. We will be continuing that Barack Obama held five such press conferences. The dif- strategy that is working very well for us. Page 8

Question: Will you sign mitted racists whose vote I that pledge? (Buttigieg ignored the am never going to get. There question.) are also some people who are Question: You lead in sec- thinking twice about votes they ond quarter fundraising… cast in 2016. There are a lot of Buttigieg: It only matters Republicans of conscience who what we do with it. It’s not so much say, “This far, but no further.” about the bragging rights. It’s the And there are a lot of people ability to put those resources into who wanted to burn the house the ground, use them to hire more down. Now that the house is people and build out the organiza- on fire, it’s time to actually do tion that’s going to make it possible something about it. for us to reach the voters we need Question: President to in the early states. We feel good Trump said he was not happy about where we are now, but obvi- with the chant yesterday. Do ously the trajectory has been so you take him at his word when swift. We’ve got a lot of work to do he said he didn’t appreciate it? to build that team. We’ve got over Buttigieg: Of course 200 people. We’ll continue put those not. If the president really resources into that ground game. cared, he would have done something on the spot. Of Question: How do you react to those Trump voters course, we all know first of all he encouraged the crowd who chanted last night “send her back?” (at a MAGA rally in to do that. Secondly, he needs us to bite. He wants us to Greenville, N.C.) And do you want to win those voters over? bite. This is a president for whom racial distrust and divi- Buttigieg: The reality is there are a lot of com- sion is an asset. The problem is while it’s useful for him, Page 9 it’s incredibly destructive to what (President Trump) might this country. It’s why we need say? somebody in that office who Buttigieg: I grew up in actually cares about human Indiana. I’m gay and not that response. worried about bullies. I don’t Question: With the think there’s anything he can debates in two weeks, do you say that would be as bother- need a breakout moment to some as indirect fire that was regain some of that upward coming into my base while I trajectory? (Democrats debate was in Afghanistan. I think I’ll again on July 30 in Detroit). be all right. Buttigieg: We’re Question: You talk pleased to be in the place we’re about changing the subject and in, but we’ve got a lot of work changing the channel. How do to do to get known. I don’t you do that when (President think it’s about any individual Trump) controls the channel? made-for-television moment. I Buttigieg: That’s what think it’s about building rela- elections are for. Now he’s got tionships with Americans as a to respond to the issues that we whole, but also voters in key bring to the fore. What’s amaz- early states who will make this ing is we have such support possible for us to get the pro- from the American people that pulsion to win the nomination. even when they control the Question: Is there levers of government they can’t such a thing as being too young do things we won’t let them do. to be president? A great example of that is the Buttigieg: You’re too Affordable Care Act. It was pre- young to be president if you’re served even when Republicans below the constitutional age. controlled all the chambers. Other than that, I think any- Now we have to make sure that body of any age ought to be nobody misses the fact that the entitled to make their case and Democratic House has proposed put their plans forward. to raise wages for millions of Question: Indiana Re- Americans and the Senate is publicans called this a “rare visit gonna try to kill that off. These back to Indiana.” Your thoughts are the kinds of things we have on that? to have Americans thinking of Buttigieg: Indiana is and we’ve got to be able to de- my home. nounce outrageous behavior, lies Question: How do you and racism in the White House. convince people that a mayor of a mid-sized city in Indiana Question: How do we stop college debt from ris- should be president of the United States? ing? Buttigieg: In many ways, it’s precisely the point. Buttigieg: We’ve got to press states to stop We need Washington to start looking a little more like cit- off-loading more of the cost of college on students. We ies and towns solving problems in the middle of the coun- also have to support students with an expanded Pell Grant try before the reverse starts to happen. (I’m) somebody program. This time we ought to expand it to actual living who has the on-the-ground experience dealing with some expenses as well as tuition and fees. You add that to an of the toughest problems that any government can face, expanded public service loan forgiveness program on the not to mention more military experience than anybody back end and we can make college dramatically more af- who’s walked into that office since Bush 41. We believe fordable. That’s one of the top priorities of the administra- my preparation stands above any of my competitors, but tion I seek to build. also my message and ability to win at a moment when Question: So, how’s everything going? Americans are looking for something radically different Buttigieg: It’s a long road. This is the stage than what they have is the package that’s going to make it where you realize you’re in a marathon. That’s why we’re possible to take the White House back and open a new era working so hard to grow our community. v in history. Question: As this race goes on, are you afraid of Page 10

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as hapless foils in his 2020 strategy of dismemberment of serious Democratic op- Trump’s strategy position. He takes the inane, misinformed, anti-American, anti-Semitic ramblings of four Democratic neophytes and succeeding with his by association tars and feathers the entire Democratic presidential field. Pandora Box monster Instead of the nightly news being focused on the pablum of healthcare for all or “free” tuition, we are By CRAIG DUNN treated to rants about what the president said or didn’t say KOKOMO – The Trump reelection strategy is in his latest tweet. No candidate gets traction and the beat playing out quite nicely at this point. The little fish in the goes on. Democrat Party and the big fish in the national media have While President Trump’s reelection strategy may all taken the bait, hook, line and be working, I worry about the implications of this strat- sinker. egy on future elections and the direction of our country. While I personally find Frankly, I’m not sure that our country can take another much of the president’s antics and four years of the divisiveness and acrimony that we have histrionics objectionable, if you today. are a student of politics, you must When the monster of hate escapes Pandora’s box, admire the audacity in carrying you may find it impossible to return it to its rightful home. out the slash-and-burn strategy of My personal observation is that the American public is divide and conquer that Mr. Trump becoming increasingly sick and tired of the daily discord. is using to be reelected. While some folks like the constant combat, Joe Sixpack With an economy hum- is becoming jaundiced and jaded. You simply can’t keep ming along on all eight cylinders, people on a knife’s edge for four years and not expect a the only way any Democratic considerable number to hoist the white flag. I love politics, opponent is going to make any but I absolutely am sickened by our current state of af- headway against the president is by having a serious fairs. I assign no blame to anyone. We get the government discussion on a wide range of substantive issues ranging and environment that we deserve. from our national debt to income inequality to healthcare. One can’t help but be a little sorry for our children. President Trump has effectively been able to reduce 18 For generation after generation of Americans, we’ve raised Democratic candidates, the rudderless Democrats in the House of Representa- tives and the Democrats in the Senate to a state of sniveling blather that oscillates between wild promises of a bag of free goodies to impeachment for the offense of non-collusion collusion. At this point in the 2020 cam- paign – and admittedly we are in the early innings of this ballgame – President Trump has his opponents right where he wants them. We saw a similar strategy play out in 2016 as candidate Donald Trump reduced a pretty talented bunch of Republican presidential candidates to a pile of rubble by mocking them and their views. From taunting “Little Marco” Rubio’s “big ears” to pondering aloud whether Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the JFK assassi- our children to respect both the office and the occupant of nation, Trump delighted his faithful followers and rode the the presidency. Year after year, historically, the president wagon of ridicule to the Republican nomination. has polled as one of the most respected people by our It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t nice. It wasn’t fair. But, children. That trend has faded. it was highly effective. What parent in their right mind would want their Now we see President Trump using the gang of child to grow up to be exactly like Donald Trump? From four led by the dynamic future of the Democrat Party, the sexual escapades, to the tall tales, to the bullying, most parents would pull back in horror at the thought that Page 11 little Johnny or Joanie had turned out president has a strategy of running his to be just like the president. I raised second term with the executive order four children and I think I would have as his only ally, he should be mindful walloped any one of them who be- that the people you destroy today are haved like the president. the people that you must work with This current state of domestic tomorrow. That is a downright scary discord is not good for our standing in thought. the world. The United States leads the I once watched a basketball game world best when we lead it from a po- that was won by a score of 13-8. The sition of respect. How can we expect winning team won the tip off and the world to respect us when we don’t immediately went to a four corner of- even respect each other? fense. They only took one shot in the At this point you may think that I’ve given entire first quarter. It was boring, irritating, infuriating and up completely on President Donald Trump. I haven’t. As detrimental to the game of basketball. It was an effective long as his principal opponents are nothing but a ragtag strategy on that evening, but left the taste of liver in your assembly of socialists and social engineers, there is no mouth. Of course, the shot clock was introduced to kill the alternative but to reelect the president. We are better off four corner strategy for all time. today economically, judicially and militarily than we were Here’s hoping that the coaches and players in four years ago. Unemployment is at rock bottom for all de- the 2020 election will play the game as intended and that mographic groups and incomes are rising. This is generally the spectators won’t storm the floor to get the winner they the stuff that earns you a second term. desire. v The age-old challenge for anyone elected to the presidency has been that you must run for office in a man- Dunn is the former chairman of the Howard County ner that allows you to govern after the election. Unless the Republican Party. Page 12

mayor of South Bend is solidly in the top-five tier of con- tenders, ahead of some already written-off candidates who In a sense, Buttigieg began with much higher name recognition, more impres- sive titles and lots of media hype. has already won If Buttigieg had decided instead to seek a third term as mayor this year, which was his for the asking, or to By JACK COLWELL look around for some other office as a stepping stone, he SOUTH BEND — In my column one year ago, I would not be where he is today. wrote: “South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg should run for He is No. 1 in fundraising among the Democratic president.” presidential candidates, with nearly $25 million raised by Mayor Pete read it that Sunday when it was July 1. published, on July 29, 2018, By now, he has about half a million donors. That’s and immediately decided that five times the number of inhabitants of his city. I was right and he would His fast start was amazing. Even before he formally run. If you believe that, you announced, Buttigieg captured enthusiastic responses probably also believe Presi- from Democrats nationally with a CNN town hall triumph, a dent Trump’s July 4 narration lengthy appearance on “Morning Joe” on MSNBC and seem- of how George Washington’s ingly endless interviews in which he answered questions forces “took over the air- directly, not with avoidance or hyperbole or bombast. ports” in winning the Revolu- He zoomed to third in a poll in Iowa in March. tionary War. Too fast? There’s no such thing in this. You move A year ago, Mayor Pete as fast as you can whenever you can. He may not keep up was already getting ready to the pace, but he already has enough funding and follow- run for president. My reason- ing to continue through all the early primaries and perhaps ing wasn’t what convinced beyond. him to do so. He has already won in the sense of becoming a I do suspect that his reasoning was similar to leading Democratic spokesman on the national scene. Prob- mine: ably wouldn’t have achieved that by delivering more state n He would have nothing to lose. of the city addresses. n He potentially would have a lot to gain. What will it lead to? The reaction of many readers — OK, probably Probably not to the White House. Still, if Donald the majority — was that I was crazy to suggest that the Trump could get there, who couldn’t? mayor of South Bend, then 36 years old, should run for Vice president? Not if the presidential nominee president and that Mayor Pete would be crazy if he did. wants someone to assure carrying a home state. Indiana My mental soundness is another matter. But we has been Trumpiana. know now that Mayor Pete wasn’t crazy to think he could Cabinet? Not if Trump wins. Maybe if a Democrat be a serious contender for president. wins. He already has won. Or something out of government? University post? Not the presidency. Not the Democratic nomina- Think tank? tion. Or a corporate position, enabling Mayor Pete to His is still a long-shot candidacy. But he al- pay off that college debt? ready has advanced farther and Unlikely. Making money faster than he could have imag- does not seem his prior- ined a year ago. His hope was ity. to start to get known, especially As was clear a in Iowa, and then do so well in year ago, in running for the first rounds of presidential president, he would have debates that he would be taken nothing to lose and, po- seriously – a serious candidate tentially, a lot to gain and with a serious message and a to offer. v chance to become a top-tier contender for the nomination. Colwell has covered The campaign took off Indiana politics over faster than expected by anyone, five decades for the including Buttigieg. South Bend Tribune. Now, with the second round of debates this week, the Page 13

Furthermore, California recorded 17% of the Killing a cliché change in total U.S. jobs while Indiana accounted for only 1.5% of that change. However, if we give the states equal By MORTON MARCUS weight, half of all states grew at 7% rather than the more INDIANAPOLIS — “Statistics don’t lie but liars commonly reported 9.6% for the nation. use statistics.” This is the trite response often heard when There are no lies here, but the “truth” may de- someone quotes data to support an argument. As one who pend on who pays your salary. v tries to represent reality by the use of data, I resent this oft-repeated insult. Mr. Marcus is an economist. Reach him at mortonj- Yet, we don’t hear the same about painters or [email protected]. Follow his views and those of photographers. Think of portraits John Guy on “Who gets what?” wherever podcasts where the use of light and shadow, are available or at mortonjohn.libsyn.com. angle, background and numerous other aspects can make the vil- lain look heroic, the plain radiate beauty. Now look at how by ask- ing different questions we can see Forecasting the 2020 Indiana’s economy differently. Our Indiana and national economies race for Congress have been advancing for almost a decade. What aspect of the econo- By ALAN I. ABRAMOWITZ my should we consider? Sabato’s Crystal Ball Our politicians focus on jobs. Jobs are not people. CHARLOTTSVILLE, Va. – With more than 20 Dem- A person may hold more than one job. Hence, the number ocrats vying for their party’s 2020 presidential nomination, of jobs may exceed the number of people holding jobs. it is understandable that the nation’s attention has been Jobs refer to workers at Indiana establishments, including focused in recent months on which candidate will emerge persons who live beyond our borders. The employed are from next year’s persons who live in Indiana, but they may work in other primaries to challenge states. President Donald The jobs numbers come from a survey of employ- Trump in November ers and the number of residents holding jobs comes from a 2020. But no matter whom the Democrats nominate and survey of households. But, due to bureaucratic perversity, no matter who wins the general election, the ability of the both numbers are called employment. next president to carry out his or her policy agenda will Here, we’ll join the politicians and talk about jobs. depend on which party controls the House of Representa- Between December 2017 and 2018, Indiana had tives and Senate in 2021. a 0.9% growth in the number of jobs. This compared with Even if President Trump is reelected, a Democratic an average annual rate of growth for 2012 through 2017 House would probably continue to aggressively pursue of 1.3%. Conclusion, Indiana’s job growth has slowed from investigations into allegations of misconduct by the presi- the recovery years of the late recession. dent and his allies during and after the 2016 campaign Yet, seen in context of the nation, this is not and to oppose many of the president’s policy initiatives. exceptional. In the 2012-17 period, U.S. jobs grew by an A Democratic Senate would almost certainly mean that average rate of 1.8%, but slowed in 2017-18 to 1.5%. most of the president’s judicial nominees would be dead Indiana slowed down in harmony with the national decel- on arrival and many of his executive branch appointments eration. would face tough scrutiny. On the other hand, a Demo- OK. Not so bad; we don’t go our own way and cratic president would have little or no chance of enacting fight national trends. But in that solace, we overlook a very an ambitious progressive agenda if Republicans controlled basic fact: The growth of Indiana jobs trails the nation. either chamber of Congress, and a Republican Senate Back up and look at those numbers again. When the nation could be expected to block a Democratic president’s judi- was growing at 1.8%, Indiana grew at 1.3%. More recent- cial nominees, especially any appointments to vacancies ly, with the U.S. growing at 1.5%, Indiana recorded only a on the Supreme Court. 0.9% advance. In the last election, Democrats won 235 seats Hold on, there’s more to think about. When we in the House of Representatives to 199 for the GOP with describe the U.S., our data looks at the country as a whole. one vacancy remaining to be filled in a special, do-over California alone has 12% of the nation’s jobs while Indiana election in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District. has just 2%. That gives what happens in California more Republicans won a 53-47 seat majority in the Senate, weight in the national numbers. with 34 seats up for grabs in 2020. Of those seats being Page 14 contested, 22 are currently held tors. by Republicans and 12 are cur- Barring a dramatic shift in rently held by Democrats. Re- the electoral landscape, Demo- publicans would need a pickup crats appear very likely to hold of 18 or 19 seats in the House, onto their majority in the House depending on the results of the of Representatives in the 2020 special election in North Caro- elections and make at least lina, to take back control of the modest gains in the Senate. lower chamber and Democrats However, there are significant would need a pickup of three caveats with both projections. or four seats in the Senate, de- Obviously, one of those is that it pending on which party controls is very early and that the presi- the vice presidency in 2021, to dent’s approval rating and the take back control of the upper generic ballot could very well be chamber. different late next summer. In order to assess In the House, we the outlook for the 2020 House are in an era with limited ticket- and Senate elections, I used a splitting and a weak incum- forecasting model that pro- bency advantage. Additionally, vides fairly accurate predictions the overall House map has a of seat swing based on four Republican lean: Republicans factors: the number of seats could win the House back by currently held by the president’s defeating fewer than two-thirds party, the president’s net approval rating in late August or of the 31 Democrats who hold seats that Trump carried in early September of the election year, the results of generic 2016 (and only three Republicans hold seats that Hillary ballot polling in late August or early September of the elec- Clinton carried). The confluence of these factors could tion year, and a dummy variable distinguishing midterm allow Republicans to overperform the projection in this elections from presidential elections. Based on election model, particularly if Trump is reelected. outcomes in the post-World War II era, we expect that: While the model predicts a good chance of a 1. The more seats the president’s party is defend- Democratic majority in the Senate in 2021, that predic- ing in the current House or Senate, the more seats the tion should be taken with considerable caution considering president’s party should lose. the margin of error of the model and the fact that only a 2. The more popular/unpopular the president, the handful of Republican seats that are up next year are in more seats the president’s party should gain/lose. Democratic-leaning or swing states. Moreover, if Democrats 3. The larger the lead/deficit that the president’s do take back the Senate, it will almost certainly be by a party holds in the congressional generic ballot, the more very narrow margin, which would make it difficult to pass seats the president’s party should gain/lose. the sort of progressive legislation advocated by many of 4. The president’s party should lose seats in mid- the party’s 2020 presidential candidates. v term elections even after controlling for the other predic- Page 15

Greg Gutfield, Fox News: So can you repeat the that his team didn’t reach an indictment decision for Presi- question, sir? “This is very, very painful.” Those aren’t dent Trump on obstruction because of the Office of Legal my words, but David Axelrod tweeting about the House Counsel memo barring such a move. That was microscopi- hearings questioning former Special Counsel Robert Muel- cally close to saying that, but for the memo, Trump (like ler about his Russia probe. As much as they hoped for anyone else in the country) would have been indicted. But a 12-alarm fire, all Democrats got was a damp sparkler. Mueller walked back his answer in the afternoon session They wanted “The Empire Strikes Back” but got a re-run in the House Intelligence Committee, emphasizing that of “Matlock.” They wanted a Super Bowl. Instead, the office had made no determination about they got a test pattern. “It was a disaster for Trump’s guilt. The other blow came when the Democrats,” Chris Wallace said on Fox News Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) got Mueller to say Channel. Yeesh. But don’t just take it from him. I that the lies of the president and his circle had had to watch it too. I had no choice. It was on at impeded the investigation. That’s significant the gym, and it was either that or “Real House- in itself and also a sufficiently clear back-and- wives.” If you did a shot every time Mueller said forth to appear unedited on the newscasts “could you repeat the question,” you’d be dead. That’s not that will be how most Americans digest today’s hearing. Mueller’s fault. It’s Democrats still intent on reliving the Third, as for the Republicans, they chose more often to past, hoping the ending changes. But it can’t. They’re like make speeches about the probe’s inception, and on a few a guy who got dumped and thinks playing “their song” occasions drew at least mild fire from Mueller, particularly over and over might rekindle the romance. The conclu- at the charge that he assembled a politically biased team: sion? Same as before. Mueller said Trump’s not guilty. He insisted with pride that he had never asked an employ- But Democrats want him to go beyond that and say, OK, ee about political affiliation in his 25 years in law enforce- Trump may not be guilty, but that doesn’t mean he’s inno- ment. But it’s a tossup whether the Republican attacks cent. That is, Trump wasn’t exonerated. But exoneration? changed any minds. v Declaring someone innocent isn’t possible. And so a 400- page lump, crafted by unhappy agenda-driven staffers, Chris Cillizza, CNN: Expectations were high collapsed like a bad soufflé. As Trump continues to unleash among Democrats that former special counsel Robert an economy that lifts all boats, his adversaries sit strand- Mueller’s testimony on Capitol Hill Wednesday would be ed, arms flailing, going nowhere, stuck in the past as the the spark they needed to persuade a skeptical American future starts looking like 2016 all over again. Democrats public that President Donald Trump had obstructed justice wanted so badly for Mueller to give his report life. Instead, -- and, perhaps, that impeachment was the right recourse he took it to the woods and shot it. v for the President’s actions surrounding the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. It didn’t turn out that way. That’s not to say that Mueller’s testimony Harry Litman, Washington Post: There will be in front of the House Judiciary and Intelligence commit- plenty of comment on Wednesday about Robert S. Muel- tees was filled with great news for Trump. Like Mueller’s ler III’s lack of acuity in his sworn testimony before the eponymous 448-page report detailing the findings of his House Judiciary Committee. And, yes, there was fatigue nearly-two-year-long investigation into Russian interfer- evident, even on his face, from the moment the former ence and possible obstruction of justice, the former special special counsel took the witness chair. But he was plenty counsel’s testimony confirmed that he had not not cleared sharp overall and in key moments vigilant about policing Trump on the obstruction charge nor was his report a the lines he drew in advance about what he would and total exoneration of the president. He said that Trump’s would not discuss. After a time, the members ceased even praise for WikiLeaks was, at minimum, “problematic.” He trying to get him to veer outside those boundaries. One confirmed that the Russians wanted Trump to win and result of Mueller’s low energy level is that there weren’t that Trump’s campaign welcomed and encouraged those any thunderbolt moments, at least not in the Judiciary efforts. And that Trump could be charged with obstruction Committee hearing. But several developments stand out: of justice once he leaves office. But all of that was already First, notwithstanding the concerns that lawmakers would in the report! While hearing it from Mueller may change be undisciplined and grandstanding, there was an impres- some minds, it’s hard to see any of those facts -- which sive degree of forethought and coordination on both sides. we’ve now known for months -- fundamentally altering Democrats went through discrete episodes in the report, the narrative. And it wasn’t just that Mueller -- as many including the most serious instances of obstruction. The people close to him had predicted -- stayed very close to questioning underlined serious allegations of misconduct what was in the report, and was extremely cautious when on the president’s part that, to date, he and the attorney even considering going beyond it. It was that he was not general have managed to obscure. Second, the Democrats terribly effective as a witness. v had what appeared, at least at first, to be two very solid moments of questioning. The most notable was Rep. Ted Lieu’s (Calif.) apparent success at getting Mueller to say Page 16

ed on were accurate, but he wouldn’t Americans sent us here to fix.” Epstein attempts answer questions about specifics not jail suicide outlined in his report. Regardless, Judge blocks Carson says it’s clear that Manafort Trump on asylum NEW YORK — Jeffrey Epstein sought financial compensation for the was found nearly unconscious in his information he shared and added, LOS ANGELES — A federal cell with neck injuries after a possible “Greed corrupts.” judge on Wednesday ordered the suicide attempt, the N.Y. Post reports: Trump administration to continue ac- Guards found Epstein sprawled on the Carson, Braun react cepting asylum claims from all eligible floor of New York’s Metropolitan Cor- to Mueller hearing migrants arriving in the United States, rectional Center, where he’s being held temporarily thwarting the president’s without bail on sex-trafficking charges. WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. latest attempt to stanch the flow of Epstein was discovered by guards André Carson isn’t taking impeach- migrants crossing the southern border sprawled out on the floor at the Met- ment off the table after Special Coun- (New York Times). Judge Jon S. Tigar ropolitan Correctional sel Robert Mueller’s testimony. of the United States District Court in Center, where he’s U.S. Sen. Mike Braun didn’t see San Francisco issued a preliminary being held without any “new information” (Howey injunction against a new rule that bail on sex-trafficking Politics Indiana). would have effectively banned asylum charges, according Carson said, “His testimony claims in the United States for most to law enforcement today conclusively confirmed the Central American migrants, who have sources. ... Investiga- aggressive, systemic interference been arriving in record numbers this tors believe Epstein may have done it conducted by the Russian govern- year. It would have also affected many to himself either on purpose or as a ment, which was detailed in Director migrants from Africa, Asia and other ploy to get transferred out of the jail, Mueller’s report. We know that the regions. sources said. Russians made numerous contacts Terre Haute casino Carson questioned with the Trump campaign, which welcomed their help. And they lied to applications coming Mueller on ‘greed’ cover it up. It’s clearer than ever that this President and his closest advisors TERRE HAUTE — The Indiana WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. jeopardized our national security, and Gaming Commission has set a Dec. 1 André Carson is slamming “greed” threatened the very foundations of deadline for applications and propos- in the Trump Administration (WIBC). our Democracy through their shady als for a Vigo County casino (Terre During yesterday’s hearing with dealings. As Director Mueller has Haute Tribune-Star). In announcing former Special Counsel Robert Muel- demonstrated through his decades- the deadline Wednesday, the commis- ler, Carson focused on Trump’s former long career, public servants must put sion noted voter approval is needed campaign chairman Paul Manafort to our country’s laws and core values in a Nov. 5 referendum before any make his point. “He’s an individual above their own personal, political license can be granted. Spectacle who, I believe, betrayed our country, or financial gain. This President has Entertainment, owner of the Majestic lied to a grand jury, tampered with failed to meet these basic standards Star Casino, submitted a request last witnesses, and clearly tried to use his of conduct. Congress must continue week to relocate gaming operations position with the Trump campaign to to use every tool at our disposal to in Gary. The commission cited legisla- make more money,” Carson said to hold him accountable, including open- tion approved this spring requiring Mueller. “Let’s focus on the betrayal ing an inquiry into his impeachment, it to accept applications for a Vigo and greed.” Carson grilled Mueller and ultimately ensuring this type of County facility once a Gary reloca- about Manafort sharing private infor- dangerous, foreign interference never tion request was filed. Surrender of mation with a man linked to Russian happens again. The future of our the Gary license requires approval by intelligence, referencing Manafort’s democracy depends on it.” Braun said, the Gary City Council as well as the meeting with a Russian intelligence “Unsurprisingly, today’s audiobook of Gaming Commission and payment by officer. “Mr. Mueller, meeting with this the Mueller report provided no new in- the licensee, Spectacle Entertainment, man wasn’t enough,” Carson con- formation from when Attorney General of $4 million to the state. Terre Haute tinued. “Mr. Manafort went so far as Barr released it with unprecedented businessman Greg Gibson is vice to offer this Russian oligarch, tied to transparency: the Trump campaign chairman of Spectacle. John Keeler, Vladimir Putin, a private briefing on still did not collude with Russia, Presi- Spectacle’s general counsel, said the the campaign. Is that right, sir?” “Yes dent Trump still did not obstruct jus- company ”is pleased to see the an- sir,” Mueller replied. Mueller reiterated tice, and Democrats in Congress still nouncement.” that the crimes Manafort was convict- need to move on to the real problems