Magical Thinking: Outcome Bias Affects Children’s Evaluation of Testimony Iris Oved Gail Heyman David Barner (
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[email protected]) Department of Psychology, 9500 Gilman Drive San Diego, CA 92093 USA Abstract informants based on factors like their age (Jaswal & Neely, 2006; VanderBorght, & Jaswal, 2009), and their previous In a series of three experiments we examined how preschool children assess testimony in relation to the relative desirability of history of accuracy (Birch, Vauthier, & Bloom, 2008; the outcome for themselves and for the individual providing the Corriveau & Harris, 2009; Jaswal & Neely, 2006), and that testimony. The first two experiments reveal evidence for an they sometimes weigh the testimony over their own direct outcome bias: children are more likely to believe an extraordinary perceptual experience (Jaswal, 2010). claim when they have little to lose in doing so (Exp.1), and when There are also other factors that influence how humans they stand to gain if the claim is true (Exp. 2). The final evaluate testimony when forming beliefs. In some cases, experiment (Exp. 3) showed that children are less likely to believe beliefs that are fundamental to how we understand the world extraordinary claims when the person making the claim has are formed in direct contravention with expert testimony ulterior motives (e.g., stands to potentially gain from the child’s and despite considerable physical evidence to the contrary belief). These data show that children’s beliefs acquired from testimony are subject to outcome bias, and that children are (e.g., climate change, evolution). In these cases many claims capable of exercising skepticism when the source of testimony is are assessed on the basis of prior convictions, in conformity likely to have ulterior motives.