Book Reviews

Smoke and Mirrors Laurent Murawiec

Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight ARAMCO state oil company to make in the Desert: The Coming Saudi any major new discoveries over a very Oil Shock and the World Economy long period of time. “After 25 years (Hoboken, NJ: J.W. Wiley and of increasingly intense geological Sons, Inc., 2005), 448 pp., $24.95. and geophysical efforts and equally intense exploratory drilling,” Sim- mons writes, “ failed to In Twilight in the Desert, energy invest- discover any significant new fields ment banker lays other than the series of complex, low- bare several important—and dis- productivity, tight reservoirs in the turbing—facts about Saudi Arabia’s Hawtah Trend.” Indeed, what discov- energy future. eries have been made fall far short of The first deals with the complete the size and quality of the super-giant lack of transparency of the Saudi oil oil fields upon which ninety-five per- industry. Simmons states, and con- cent of Saudi output relies. vincingly shows, that what informa- The third claim made by Sim- tion is released by the Kingdom’s mons is that Saudi oil output has oil authorities is carefully tailored already peaked, and whatever returns to the perceived needs of the Saudi it now yields will be diminishing. His royal family and their interests, and technical argument is that the major bears little, if any, resemblance to oil fields of Saudi Arabia—Ghawar, reality. According to Simmons, Saudi Safaniya, Abqaiq and Berri—are “now authorities “refus[e] to provide cred- becoming mature,” meaning that they ible data to support [their] claims have been in production for a period about reserves, production rates, and typically associated with maturing costs.” As a result, there is no reliable (peaking). According to Simmons, a estimate of Saudi . While too-high pace of oil recovery, and an the Kingdom claims to have 260-plus excessive injection of water to boost billion barrels, Simmons tells us that pressure, has watered down reserves this assertion could “merely reflect and led to too-rapid depletion of recov- the competitive need of an otherwise erable . As a result, he pre- minor nation to remain at the top of dicts that Ghawar (the so-called “King the OPEC reserves pecking order,” of Oil Fields”) and other major fields or serve as “an optimistic best guess as are nearing peak production levels, to how many barrels might ultimately and that the era of cheap Saudi oil is be produced.” coming to a close. In the process, he Simmons’ second charge deals sweeps away the absurd and comfort- with the remarkable inability of the ing (and politically-biased) forecasts

Laurent Murawiec is Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, and author of Princes of Darkness: The Saudi Assault on the West (Rowman and Littlefield, 2005).

The Journal of International Security Affairs 105 Book Reviews of an unlimited potential increase in But in order to share Simmons’ Saudi capacities and output. conclusions, we would have to be given Simmons’ conclusions are more information. A comprehensive striking. “The twilight of oil that is comparison between Saudi statistics approaching in Saudi Arabia and and known data concerning geologi- across the entire Middle East will cer- cally-similar and geographically-close tainly make oil products much scarcer oil fields in the rest of the Gulf would and less affordable,” he writes. “As have helped to lift at least part of the twilight descends upon Saudi Arabia veil of secrecy and obfuscation—and and other Middle East oil producers to buttress his assessments. and they can no longer furnish as Another problem is present as much oil as the world might need, well. Simmons’ technical expertise energy planners and political leaders and familiarity with his subject is around the world must start prepar- undeniable. But when he ventures ing for the likely consequences of the into the political history of Saudi growing scarcity and higher costs Arabia and the Middle East, the of the commodity that underpins results are nothing short of disas- modern society. Once Saudi Arabia’s trous. Simmons undertakes to dispel oil output does start to fall, whenever what he calls “negative stereotypes… that may happen, it will signal defini- ignorance and prejudice” regarding tively that the world’s oil supply has the Kingdom and its rulers. But in peaked… To ignore the risk posed by fact, he buys into the mythographic this event any longer is foolish.” versions of Saudi history dispensed True enough. But predicting the by the royal family and their pro- end of Saudi oil is a bit like predicting pagandists lock, stock and barrel. the “Big One” in California. “Noth- King Abdelaziz ibn Saud is thus ing is so useless as a general maxim,” described as being “acutely aware of Lord Macaulay once wrote. In the the potential for political disruption end, knowing something without and violence stalking his kingdom knowing the “when” is close to know- as a result of Zionist efforts to create ing nothing. a Jewish homeland in Palestine”—a Simmons correctly warns that ludicrous claim which smacks of the the oil data is fraught with malicious standard ARAMCO/State Depart- manipulation, and is therefore utterly ment talking points, not to mention unreliable: nobody can realistically the violently-anti-Semitic hagiogra- base a policy on it. He also warns that phies of Ibn Saud penned by Harold there are problems in the oil industry St. John Philby and other pro-Nazi in the Middle East at odds with the converts to Islam. In this retelling, rosy picture painted by ARAMCO King Faisal is repeatedly exoner- and by OPEC. Indeed, the fact that for ated, and his orchestration of the the longest of times the Saudis have oil crisis depicted as post-facto pun- enjoyed a pass on oil information (as ishment of the United States “for its well as on just about everything else) support for Israel in the 1973 Middle is both alarming and unacceptable. It East war.” This line of argument is ought to be U.S. policy that genuine, laughable: anyone with knowledge verifiable information on such a key of recent Middle East history knows commodity is indispensable. And the that King Faisal knowingly funded corresponding pressures should be put the war preparations of Anwar Sadat. on the Saudis to make that happen. He was one of the two main causes of

106 The Journal of International Security Affairs Book Reviews that war. A closer reading of history tomes (such as John B. Kelly’s metic- TRAINING SYSTEMS ulous Arabia, the Gulf and the West, perhaps) would have given Simmons COMMUNICATIONS & ELECTRONICS the political and historical perspec- MISSION SUPPORT tive his book sorely lacks. In 1973, a Congressional inves- tigation into the Oil Crisis criticized the (then-American) ARAMCO com- panies for having been “blinded by a film of oil.” We can thank Mr. Sim- mons for partially removing some of the smudge that has been deposited over the decades by the Saudi rulers. His book ought to spur Congress and public opinion to demand that the Executive Branch wake from its com- placent slumber.

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