Biodegradable Plastics from Renewable Sources

THE ISSN 1025-9384

" ~ ' IPrsREPORT

E d i t nl h y t h t' I n s t i t u t e f o r· P r o ;; p t' I' t i v t' T t' (' h n o I o g i c a I S t u d i t• s ( I PT S ) a n d i ;; s u t' d m l'ooperation with the Europt>an S&T Ohst·r·vatorit•s Nt>twor·k

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• Solar Thermal Energy Technology: Potential for a Major European Industry • Diffusion of Energy Technologies: The Influence of Increasing Returns DECEMBER • European Craftsmanship and the 1996 Multimedia Information Society • Supporting Decision Processes: Data Constraints and the Role of .. Knowledge-based Tools .* • * ... EUROPEAN COMMISSION • Biodegradable Plastics from Renewable ... * .. . Sources w w 0.. T h e I P T S R e p o r t N o 1 0 December 1 9 9 6

he JP'!:\' R£po11. launched m December 1995 on the request and under the auspices (if the Comm1ss1onerfur Sc1ence, Research and Dez•e!upment. Ed1th Cressun, has IZOU' completed 1ts pilot phase What seemed lzke a dawztmg challenge in late 1995. appears IWU' 111 retrospect as a cmcial galmmser of the IPTS energies and skzlls

7he Rep011 has puhlzshed a11zcles 111 a numher of areas, keepmg a rough balance among them and e:'(p/ozting mterd1Sc1p!znari~v as much as pusszble Al1icles are deemed prospectll'e~v relemnt' if they e."

The thorough drajt1ng and redrafting process. hased on continuous mteract1ue consultatwn u•zth our col/aboratzng netu•ork of mstitlltes, u•hzch ll'Zll prugressu·e~)' hecome ezxn more inmlz•ed in the process, guarantees qualzry control

The first, and poss1b~l' most szgnzficant. mdicatur (if success is tbat the Repu11 1s being read Issue 00 (December 1995J- ufu•lncb 2000 copies were printed m u•hat seemed tu he an optmllStic projectwn at the tzme- has become a collector's ztem. Since then cirw!atzon has nsen tu 6000 Requests for subscriptions haue come not un~vfrom all ol'er Europe but also from the LZ'i. japan, Austra!ta. Latin America, N. Africa, etc.

The positiz•e comments our e./Jo11s hal'e receil'ed haue been h1gh~l' gratzfving and the constmctu•e and engagmg crit1c1sm of our readershzp has jbrmed pan of the ongoing process of improvement The comments ll'e hal'e recezl'ed range from the 11zjorma/, formal commumcations (in paper or electronic form), and take m as u•el/ as a Reader Sun•ev commzssioned by IPTS

Readers' direct engagement u•ith the content fi[the repol1's a111cles has led Its to mc!ude a Letters-to-the Edztur sectzon, whzch sta11ed 111 the june issue

The nszng esteem 111 u·hich the pub!icatwn is held is also making zt mcreasmgl)' attractil•eforauthorsfrom outszde the Commission We hm•e alrea{{v publtshed contnbutions by authors from such renouned institutions such as the 7NO in Holland, the ~DJ 111 Germany. the ENEA in Ita~)'. the Council of Strateg1c and Internatwnal Studzes in the US. etc

The Repo11 1s produced simultaneuztsl)• in four languages (English, French, German and Spanish), by IPTS. to these one could add the Jtalzan translatzon z•ulunteered hv ENEA (yet another szgn of the Repo11's mcreasmg l'iszb1/z~vJ 1be fact that it is not on~v ami/able in seuera!/anguages. hut also large~)' prepared and produced 011 the Internet's World Wzde Web, makes If quite an uncommon zmde11akmg

We will continue to stril'e to meet the expectations of our z•et)' dzuerse readershzp, to avoid the traps of ol'ersimplifzcation. encyclopaedic rez•zeu•s or the maccesszhzlz~v of academic joumaL~ The key is to remind both ourseh•es and our readers, that u•e cannot be all things to all people, that it ts rmpo11ant to can;e out our mche and keep on e:>.plonng and e.>.plottzng If. hoping to illwmnate topics under a new. ret•ealing hght. for the ben'{jit of the readers, to prepare the1n to manage the challenges ahead

uropean 'l(esearcfi anti 'Tecfino[ogica[ 'lJeve[opment ('l(PJJ) po[icy is a6out to untfergo a reorientation. 'l!iis fact was e?(pressetf in tfie principfes antigoafs untferpinning tfie new 'Jiftfi '}'ramewor!(Programme wfiicfi were outfinetf in tfie [ast preface to 'lfie IP'TS report. 'l!iis retfiinf:jng of'l(PJJ po[icy, dear[y going 6eyontf tfie norma[ uptfating ofprecetfing programmes, fias 6een triggeretf 6y tfiree main tfevefopments in recent years.

- 'first of a[~ so[ving severa[ of tfie most important cfia[fenges to society anti economy is now regartfetf to 6e crucia[[y tfepentfent on successju[ tecfino[ogica[ innovation. 'lfie competitiveness of'European intfustry, emp[oyment creation anti wfiat cou[tf 6e ca[[etf sustaina6[e tfevefopment

in its witfer socia~ economic anti environmenta[ sense fiave 6een given a prominent position on tfie pofitica[ agentfa. 'l(esearcfi anti 'Tecfino[ogica[ 'lJevefopment are e?(f'ectetf to provitfe options atftfressing tfiese pro6fems. - Secontf[y, new insigfit into tfie processes tfriving tfie emergence anti aiffusion of new tecfino[ogies fias fiat£ an impact on our approacfies to 'l(PJJ po[icy. 'lfie researcfi wor!( wfiicfi fias 6een carrietf out in tfie [ast tfecatfe on tecfino[ogica[ innovation itself fias sfiown tfiat tfie e?(Jifanatory anti pretfictive power of very simp[istic motfe[s anti especia[{y of tfie finear motfe[ of tecfino[ogica[ cfiange is e)(_fiaustetf. We neetf to consitfer simu[taneous[y tfie impact of new scientific finaings, of marl@t opportunities, of societa[ neetfs anti of tfie conte)(_tua[ contfitions for 'l(&'lJ [if@ etfucation, training, regufation, anti cu[ture. On{y sucfi a mu[tifacetetf view on tecfino[ogica[ innovation can fie{p to acfiieve an efficient anti targetetf use of scarce researcfi funtfs. - '}'ina[[y, tfie app[ication of tfie principfe of su6sitfiarity sfiou[tf fiave fie[petf to avoitf tfie tfup[ication of researcfi efforts 6y putting more empfiasis on tfie co-ortfination of 'European anti nationaf researcfi activities. 'European researcfi programmes are not meant to su6stitute nationa[ ones, 6ut to tfea[ witfi tfie 'European tfimension of tfie issues at stal@ anti to create synergies witfi tfie nationa[ programmes.

In otfier wortfs, tfiese tfiree tfriving forces wi[[ first of a{[ affect tfie content anti tfie focus of tfie Commission's new 'l(PJJ programmes. 'But tfiey afso intficate a neetf for 6etter adjustment mecfianisms 6etween tfie Commission programmes anti po[icies in ortfer to mal@ tfie overa[[ approacfi more consistent. 5lntf fina[[y, tfiey fiave imp[ications for tfie organisation of 'l(PJJ po{icy-maf:jng itself 6ecause tfie institutiona[ set-up was create£ at a time wfien our tfiinf:jng a6out tfie rofe anti tfie emergence of tecfino[ogica[ innovation was mucfi simpfer tfian it is now.

Some initia[ steps nave a[ready been ta/(gn in recent years to address these organizationa[ questions. %e tasfJorces nave been created as a means of co-ordinating po[icies fwrizonta[[y and to acfiieve a deeper invo[vement of industry and otfier societa[ interest groups in l(gy po[icy areas [il(g transport or water. 5tnd tfie recent Commission documents, especia[{y tfie (jreen Paper on Innovation, nave taf(gn severa[ of tfie new insigfits on board, preparing tfie ground for 11Wre specific measures.

'l(fiated to these institutiona[ issues is tfie situation of tfie Commission's own researcfi activities in tfie institutes of tfie Joint 'l(esearcfi Centre. %ey are el(fected to contribute to dea[ing witfi these new cha[[enges. %e J'l(C is part of tfie institutiona[ structure of tfie 'European Commission, and it fulfi!s tfie ro[e of a neutra[ body wfiicfi supports tfie 'European institutions - on scientific matters - in tfie fonnu{ation and imp[ementation of tfieir po[icies. %e fiigfi comp{e;'(j.ty of innovation processes and tfie corresponding need for R!Jow[erfgeab[e,

independent and competent advice tfierefore gives tfie J'l(C a very important function. It is obvious, that tfiis function can on[y be fu{jif[ed if tfie J'l(C is open to new rfevdopments in society and ab[e to adjust its researcfi activities to tfie needs out{ined above. %e deeper

invo[vement of tfie J'l(C -institutes in competitive and socia[(y driven researcfi fias been a first step in tfiis direction. In tfie coming 11Wntfis tfie shaping of tfie :Jift/i :Jramewori(Programme wi[[ be an opportunity to carry past kssons furtfier, not on[y for tfie J'l(C but for 'European 'l(TD po[icy as a wfio[e.

THE IPTS REPORT

4 Editorial

Energy

DECEMBER 1 9 9 6 5 Solar Thermal Energy Technology: Potential for a Major

EDITED BY THE INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE European Industry TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES (IPTS) Solar thermal energy ts a mature technology relauve to most other renewable energy And issued in Cooperation w1th sources Its present potential as a source of electnctty combined wllh future potential for the European S& T Observatories Network production of fuels make 1t attractive as part of a renewable energy portfolio Moreover PUBLISHED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION Joint Research Centre growing energy demand m many sun-belt countnes gtves this European controlled technology attractive export potenttal ISSN: 1025-9384 Catalogue Number GK-AA-96-10-EN-C DEPOT LEGAL: SE-1937-95 10 Diffusion of Energy Technologies: The Influence of Increasing DIRECTOR Returns Herbert J. Allge1er Technology adoptton deCisions taken early on in the diffuston process may determme EDITOR-IN-CHIEF which technologies survtve, regardless of thetr mtnnstc value, on account of the return Dimitros Kyroakou on adoption phenomenon The potenttal dommance of sub-optimal technologtes means EDITORIAL BOARD H.J. Allgeier (chairman), C. Tahir, G. Fahrenkrog, there is a need for consctous preservation of dtversity against the 'lockmg-m· tendency P. S0rup, C. de la Torre, I Maghiros, J. Naegele of some technologies (Subject Ed1tor transport), D. Papameletiou (Subject Ed1tor Environment), A. Soroa (Subject Ed1tor Energy), J. Gavigan (Subject Editor Information Technology Technology-Employment-Competitiveness), K. Beese (Subject Editor Biotechnology), and D. 17 European Craftsmanship and the Multimedia Information Kyriakou (Subject Editor Information and Telecommunication Technologies). Society PRODUCTION The state of IT cannot be measured by hardware mdtcators alone, ,oftware now ts CINDOC-(SIC/CL SERVICIOS UNGOfSTICOS raptdly becoming the crucial factor The avatlabthty of up-to-date skills 1s now a key PRINT to sector performance and successful training, gmded by rehable indicators of Graesal technology trends and market needs, can be mstrumental m fine-tumng skills supply TRANSLATION CINDOC-CSIC/CL SERVICIOS UNGUfSTICOS to demand.

COPYRIGHT The views expressed in this publication do not Methods necessarily reflect those of the European Commission (EC). 22 Supporting Decision Processes: Data Constraints and the Role The IPTS retains copyright, but reproduction is authorised prov1ded the source is mentioned: of Knowledge-based Tools the EC may not be held responsible for the use Dectston-makers have to deal with ever larger volumes of mformauon and wtth more made of the information. complex system' A vanety of approaches to extractmg knowledge from information THE IPTS REPORT exist, parttcularly using knowledge-based techniques drawn from AI, and they have a is published in the first week of every month, except for the months of January and August. lt role to play in the construction of management mformauon .md dectston support is ed1ted in English and is currently available free systems. of charge, in four languages: English, French, German and Spanish. Environment SUBSaiiPTIONS For a free subscription to The IPTS Report, or to 28 Biodegradable Plastics from Renewable Sources amend an existing subscription, please write with full details to: Envtronmental concern about the problems of waste dispo,al and danger to wtldhfe

The IPTS Report Secretaroat presented by durable plastics 1s turnmg attentiOn to biodegradable plastics. Promtsmg IPTS, JRC Sev1lla technologtes are becommg avatlable, but standard' and biodegradabthty labels need to World Trade Centre be estabhshed and effective tests of compliance developed tf they are to yteld the lsla de la CartuJa E-41092 Sevilla, Spa1n benefits hoped for Tel: +34-5-44 88 284 Fax: +34-5-44 88 235 35 Brief Notes E-ma1l: ipts_secrOJrc es Web address: WWW.Jrc es/1ptsreport!subscribe.html

"' IPTS W< - Se.:llt', 1396 3 T h e I P T S Report N o 1 0 December 1996

The first article in this issue examines the prospects Software production still remains a craft-like, for solar thermal technology (STT), a renewable labour-intensive process, often crucial for the energy technology which can already provide 80- success of industrial products. The article 100 MW power plants at near-competitive costs. advocates emphasising training atmed at With government support for R&D and, critically, improving software skills, as well as collecting for the construction of plants during the early appropriate statistics on the demand and supply of stages, STT will be able to compete with fossil fuels the requisite skills in order to fine tune skills by 2010. This has a number of implications, supply to market demand. amongst which the fact that STT could become part of a more sustainability oriented energy supply. The penultimate article does not deal with an Climatic factors mean the benefits of STT are more individual problem, but with the problem-solving, direct in the southern, less favoured regions of decision-making process itself. It suggests that the Europe. Moreover, the European industry's early ever-increasing amounts of information decision lead can be consolidated and export markets can makers have to consider are not best dealt with by be exploited in sun-belt regions worldwide. most standard decision support system (DSS) tools. More emphasis may be needed on analysis and The second article argues that recent academic knowledge extraction, rather than information studies and policy reports have (again) underlined collection. The article argues that artificial the importance of increasing returns, as well as intelligence techniques/tools (e.g. neural networks, factors often overlooked by analysts, such as fuzzy logic, etc. ) could enrich DSS tools in order technology lock-in, irreversibility, etc. The to enhance knowledge acquisition, extraction and presence of such phenomena (along with other representation, especially in those all too common market failures and/or deviations from perfect cases in which information is expressed in non competition) may cause markets to pass over the quantifiable, natural language form. most desirable technology, as witnessed in the cases of the energy technology examples The final article projects a bright future for presented in the article. In such instances, the biodegradable plastics thanks to their energy article argues, proactive technology watch and saving and positive environmental impact preservation of technological diversity may be the characteristics, made possible by recent most appropriate response. technological developments. The article suggests this positive profile, and the interest expressed The third article argues that software development worldwide in this potentially very important could become the bottleneck for the emergence of market, may call for a review of waste the information society, as well as an area which management policies in Europe and the adoption Europe in particular may well need to emphasise. of appropriate standards.

4 © IPTS - JRC - Seville, 1996 N o 1 0 December 1996 The IPTS Report

Solar Thermal Energy Technology: Potential for a Major European Industry lrving Spiewak

The European Parliament resolution on economic potential is in the northern renewable energies has called for a large increase Mediterranean countries (H. Klaiss et. al., 1991 ), in the European use of renewable energies, with while the bulk of the physical potential resides The European a target of 15o/o of the primary energy mix by 2010 m Africa. If the EU countries introduce a "C02 Parliament has called for an mcrease of (European Parliament, 1996). This represents a reduction" scenario, the solar capacity in the renewable energy's formidable challenge to the national governments Mediterranean region could reach 13500 MW by share from 6% to of the EU, since the current use of renewables 2005 and 63000 MW by 2025. This might include 75% Solar-thermal amounts only to 6o/o. The resolution argues that substantial transport of solar power from North technology could giVe such an increase is JUStified to conserve the Africa to Europe. v1tal support to wmd limited resources of fossil fuels, to reduce energy m the effort to dependence on imports, and to begin a serious There are 350 MW of operating parabolic trough meet th1s target effort to reduce the build-up of greenhouse gases solar plants that have demonstrated high in the atmosphere. Of the renewables, only wind reliability and outstanding ability to meet peak has been positioned to contribute a significant load demands in California for a decade. Power share of any increase in the use of renewables. from these plants is available on demand by Solar-thermal technology has also progressed to means of hybridization with natural gas. the point of readiness to use on a large scale, and European-owned industry controls this could reach commercial competitiveness by 2010 technology and could undertake at least 80 MW In Cal1fornia solar thermal energy has given appropriate government support per year of new projects with the present demonstrated 1ts manufacturing plant capacity. rel!ab!l1ty and ab1l1ty to Solar thermal has an anticipated economic meet demand for over potential for about 23000 megawatts of The present costs of electricity from solar thermal a decade electricity in the Mediterranean region by 2025 power plants are about twice the costs of the best (DG XVII Expert Group, 1996l. About 2/3 of this fossil fuel technology. It is anticipated that a

As well as formmg properly focused development strategy could cut the globalization of energy markets implies that part of a mtxed the solar plant costs in half by 2010. Such a strategy the potential of this industry should not be technology generation would include the construction of plants with the underestimated. scenario, solar thermal best available technology to build utility capabilities, energy could be used and sustained technology improvement and Active research and development has been to generate clean fuel demonstration. The present European lead in this supported in the EU at the national level, notably for transportation to area could be maintained and strengthened. This in Germany and Spain, at a rate of about US$23 where tt ts needed would, however, require that the European industry million per year. EU national programs constituted intensify its technology development and actually 43% of the OECD world-wide budget for solar build commercial plants. thermal R&D during 1991-3 (International Energy Agency, 1994) and were approximately the same Beyond 2010, solar-thermal, together with wind as the US government expenditures. and hydropower, could provide the bulk of central-station renewable electricity. This would Status of Technology and Costs be supplemented by distributed power generation by photovoltaic cells and biomass. There are also Solar-thermal technology was commercialized by excellent prospects for the penetration of solar the Luz Co. (Israel) that built the series of plants thermal technology into the production of dean in California from 1984 to 1990. Their parabolic fuels for transportation and distributed electricity trough technology was similar to that generation via high temperature thermo-chemistry, demonstrated earlier at Almeria. Luz was forced using technology based materials processing in a into bankruptcy in 1991 when previously high-temperature solar furnace. Initially, natural available government subsidies were terminated gas, biomass or coal could be converted to and they were unable to get the necessary methanol or hydrogen in such solar furnaces financing for the next plant. Their technology operating at 800-900 degrees Celsius. Eventually, and manufacturing assets were purchased by a we could anticipate water-splitting processes Belgian company, now Solei Solar Systems, Ltd. operating at 1300-1500 degrees to produce Pilkington Solar International GmbH (Germany) hydrogen as a major energy supply vector. built the mirrors for the California plants and they, together with Sole!, are actively marketing the Luz technology. They are able to supply European Solar-thermal power plants of up to 80-100 MW at costs of Experience about US$2800/kW. Many solar-thermal projects were undertaken in response to the oil price crises of the 1970's. The competitiveness of these plants depends These included the construction of four solar strong4' on the underlying interest rate and other tower prototypes in France, Italy and Spain, and a local factors. For a real interest rate of 8%, a The current trend parabolic trough prototype in Spain. These early subsidy of about 1/3 of the capital cost is needed towards globalizatiOn solar power plants failed to reach the desired to compete with fossil fuel-fired plants. Once the of the energy market performance levels and currently only those built plant enters operation, the power sales should makes production in at Almeria, Spain are operated, as research substantially exceed the costs of operation and sun-belt countnes for facilities. They constitute the main European solar create a positive cash flow to recoup the consumption in the research centre (the 'Plataforma Solar de Almeria'). investment cost. north a possible future No solar -thermal power plants have been built in optton Europe since the early 1980s because of the low The plants currently being offered are far superior price of fossil fuels. The unsuitability of the to the early prototypes in that they incorporate the northern European climate for this technology has learning based on many years of operation and been a factor in dtscouraging investment by some offer firm power via fossil fuel backup, including national governments. However, current trends to the optional combination with highly efficient and

6 © IPTS - JRC - Seville, 1996 N o . 1 0 December 1996 T h e I P T S Report

economical gas turbine plants. More advanced Market for Solar thermal parabolic trough and tower plants are being Technology developed in Europe, Israel and the USA. With an appropriate program of development and plant Projections of future demand for electricity indicate construction, solar-thermal electricity costs should world-wide growth of 2.00/o to 3.3% per year Solar thermal plants be fully competitive by 2010 in the Mediterranean between 1995 and 2015 (E!A,1996). This requires can offer firm output and other sun-belt regions. See Figure 1 for the addition of about 90 GW of capacity per year. by hybrid1zat1on with solar thermal industry learning curve. Growth is particularly strong in the developing fossil fuel generation world, including a number of sunbelt countries with technology Cost reductions of up to 50% are expected, large populations. Feasibility studies of solar relative to current solar-thermal power costs as a thermal power plants have been conducted, under result of a combination of the following factors: various sponsorship. These indicate potential markets in southern Europe, North Africa, Jordan, • Development of innovative mirror systems, Israel, India, the USA, Mexico, and Brazil. We have the solar collectors constituting 30-40% of carried out an analysis of potential market growth present plant investment cost. following commercial maturity and competitiveness. • Development of simpler and more efficient We estimate a market share of 5 GW per year for heat transport schemes such as direct steam solar-thermal in a business-as-usual scenario. A generation and superheat in parabolic trough much faster growth would be feasible in response geometry. to government stimulation, for example if needed to • Higher temperature, more efficient receivers reduce carbon dioxide emissions. and power cycles, including Brayton (gas turbine) cycles. Requirements for a Self • Novel optical systems such as beam-down sustaining Industry power towers that provide close physical coupling of the receivers and power block Asignificant contribution of solar-thermal power to • Improved integration of solar and fossil-fuel the European Parliament's 2010 target cannot be inputs to hybrid plants. achieved without a higher than present rate of • Benefits of learning and scale in larger plants investment in R&D and demonstration plants. Any and factory mass production of solar self-sustaining renewables industry cannot develop components. rapidly based on market forces alone because of

Figure 1: Solar Thermal Industry Learning Curve

Capital Cost, $/KW Demand exists 10000 r------~ worldwide and a e ACTIJAL EXPERIENCE market share for solar •PROJECTED COSTS thermal technology of 5000 5 GW per year is • 1989 estimated. This could • 1998 rise sharply if ' ..... , 2010 governments move to 2000 """"• limit carbon dioxide emiss1ons

1000 ~--~-+-+~~~----~4-+-~~~--~~+-~~~ 10 100 1000 10000 Solar Capacity Built, MW

H1gh R&D costs make the high cost of the R&D and demonstration steps, 2010, we may expect breakthroughs in 1t difficult for this sort and the long time required to recover these costs. superconductor technology (New Technology Week, of technology to be The introduction of renewable' 1s currently 1996 l that would reduce the costs of long-distance developed rapidly on supported hy OECD national government R&D power transmission across the Mediterranean. the bas1s of market budgets of about US$700 million annually, of which forces alone the EU countries contribute about $300 million Benefits and Impacts Moreover, 1t rece1ves (International Energy Agency. 1994) plus some little fundmg relatiVe additional incentives for commercial sale of clean It has been estimated that each solar-thermal project to other renewable energy. The EC Fourth Framework Program will create 1000 man-years of employment in the energy technologies allocates an additional 4)5 million ECU (about host country during the manufacturing/construction US$540 million) over four years 1994-98 Solar phase and 50 jobs for plant operations during 20-30 thermal R&D gets about 811/u of the national years. Depending on the capabilities of the local renewables budgets and only 1.2% of the EC industry. it has been estimated that 40-50% of the Program's renewable energy budget. Renewahles mitlal costs will he spent m the host country in total received only 7.2% of the total OECD (Pilkington, 1996). The host countries would benefit budgets for energy R&D in 1991-3. from the electricity production using mdigenous resource,. Their foss1l fuel purchases would he Manufacturing experience can he gained only by reduced, or in the ca'e of fuel-exporting countries. building plants and constitutes one of the essential their exports could be increased. ProJects of this ingredients to a self-sustaining solar-thermal kind will create employment for engineering and The European mdustry enjoys a technological industry. S!milarly, the engineering- construction manufacturing in the European Union. The lead and prox1mity to companies, the utility operators, and government European industry is poised to assume a world many consumer regulators in the technology user countries need leadership role in this 1mportant technology. countnes wh1ch could to be 1m·oh·ed at an early date to develop a gJVe 1t an important demand for. and confidence in, solar energy. This If there were a massive increase in the use of pos1t10n on the world process requires funding hy international hanks renewable energy, it would serve to reduce market and national governments. The World Bank is market pressure on fuel prices at a time when fuel considering support to several proposals for solar resources might be less abundant, thereby thermal power plants. We have estimated that increasing the stability of fuel prices. The supplementary funding of 400 to 700 million ECU operating solar plants would reduce the output of over a 12 year period hy a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, mternational, national bodies and the EC would compared to alternative electricity generation lead to a self-sustaining industry. The European based solely on fossil fuels. On the negative side, industry is well positioned to gain a leadersh1p expanded use of renewables, while increasing role because of its existing capabilities and 1ts overall employment, would reduce employment proximity to the major user countries. in other energy sectors, principally coal mining. it has been estimated that each solar-thermal Special mention must he made of the importance of Beyond Electricity project w1ll create North African countries in this process. They are 7000 man-years of already becoming linked to the European electrical Research has demonstrated the feasibility of high employment m the grid. Because the peak demand for power in Africa temperature (thermochemical l gasification of host country during occurs later in the clay than in Europe, it is logical to carbonaceous materials such as biomass, coal or the manufactunng/ exchange solar power generated in Africa for base oil-shale at 800-900 degrees Celsius to produce a construction phase load power generated in Europe during the evening. fuel gas mixture of hydrogen and carbon and 50 jobs for plant In Africa the solar resources are superior and labour monoxide. This syngas can be further processed operat1ons during 20- costs lower, so African countnes could supply cheap into methanol or pure hydrogen. The expected 30 years low-technology component~ to he integrated into advantages of such processing carried out in a the high-technology European solar products. After solar furnace are yields of fuel products with

8 © IPTS - JRC - Sevtlle, 1996 N o 1 0 December 1996 T h e I P T S Report

calorific values above those of the carbonaceous Conclusions feedstocks, and the ability to process low-grade Thermochemtcal and waste materials with essentially no emissions Solar thermal technology can make a major gastficat10n of low to the atmosphere other than small amounts of contribution toward the replacement of fossil fuels grade fuels to produce co2. Exploratory research at higher temperatures with renewables, leading to a sustainable energy htgher-grade syngas of 1300-1500 degrees with metal oxides indicate system. The European industry is in an excellent and the direct splitttng that eventually it will be possible to separate water position to assume a world leadership role in such of water tnto into hydrogen and oxygen at reasonable cost. a process. There would be significant job creation hydrogen and oxygen are two further in such an industry. However, government support applicattons of solar Solar thermo-chemistry could therefore play a for research, development and construction of thermal energy that major role m replacing fossil fuels, not only in the early plants would be required during the initial may be feastble in the production of electricity, but also in transportation phase. It is expected that, with such support, a self future and heating fuels. The largest cost component, sustaining and expanding solar electricity industry here again, would be the solar collectors. The would be viable by 2010. Beyond 2010, solar innovations in optical systems in solar electricity thermal technology could contribute to the production could also be utilized in the production of solar transportation and heating production of solar fuels. fuels, particularly hydrogen and methanol. •

Keywords electricity generation, solar energy, renewables, C02 emissions, environmental protection About the author lrving Spiewak holds References a Master of Soence • DG XVII Expert Group (1996), Assessment of Solar Thermal Power Plant Technologies, degree tn Chem Engineenng, from the European Commission, Brussels. Massachusetts • Energy Information Administration (1996),/nternational Energy Outlook 1996, DOE/EIA Institute of 0484(96), U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Technology Before • European Parliament, July 4, 1996, Promotion des energies renouvelables, A4-0188/96, joining the IPTS as a Resolution sur un plan d'action de la Communaute pour la promotion des energies Visiting Soenttst, renouvelables. specialtztng tn technology watch in • International Energy Agency (1994), Energy Policies of /EA Countries, 1993 Review, solar thermal energy OECD/IEA, Paris. and other renewables • H. Klaiss, F. Staiss, and C.-J. Winter, (1991), Systems Comparison and Potential of Solar he worked as a Thermal Installations in the Mediterranean Area, Workshop on Prospects for Solar research sctenttst and Thermal Power Plants in the Mediterranean Region, Sophia-Antipolis, France. program manager at • New Technology Week, June 17, 1996, Superconductor Market Proving Larger, Broader Oak Rtdge Nattonal Than Expected,King Communications Group, Inc., Washington, D.C. Lab, USA, and a research scientist at • Pilkington Solar International GmbH, (1996), Status Report on Solar Thermal Power the Wetzmann Plants, Cologne, Germany. Institute of Soence, Israel. His research Contad interests tnclude the lrving Spiewak, IPTS, energylenvtronment tel: +34-5-448 83 86, fax: +34-5-448 83 59, e-mail: [email protected] fteld

Diffusion of Energy Technologies: The Influence of Increasing Returns Stephane lsoard

Issue: The. recent publication of the Comrmssion Green Paper on Innovation has brought to the forefront concepts embedded in the mainstream of evolutionary theory thinking.-The Joule mprogram also devotes particular attention to the analysis of energy teChnology dynamjcs and its. environmental .and economic consequences. Recent advances in mathematical and mbdelling techniques now make the formalization of this approach poS$ible and perm~t the quantitative assessment of the theory.

Relev~nce: From ~he pe~sl)ectllle of increasi~~ returns, the most efficient technology · ·is riot guaranteed to prevail in: the marke~. nor ·tWen to survive in it. Therefore, R&D policy may ryeed to concenttate_~n ~ricouragfng technofogical watch and on preserving technotogical diversity. In comPeting technology systems, l~stitutional organizations may have a role to play in pron:iotiflg ~ooaf!V and eovironment~lly desirable technologies when ~lterO

lntrodudion constant returns to scale are assumed in order to ensure the unity, stability and predictability of the Mainstream economic models often make strong economic equilibrium, obtained as a solution of assumptions regarding perfect competition within an optlmisation problem. This, however, means it markets, characterize technology as a free is often impossible to explain the technology Based on Schumpetenan ideas, commodity and assume the maximizing behaviour lock-in phenomena related to competing Evoluttonary Economtc of agents. Some emerging disciphnes, such technology systems. The integration of the Theory focuses on the Evolutionary Innovation Economics, Industrial dynamics of technological change with integratiOn of the Economics and the Sociology of Technology, have, evolutionary economic theory can provide new dynamtc components in recent years, developed alternative paradigms of insight into these technology diffusion processes. of technologtca! technological diffusion processes. The Evolutionary The presence of increasing returns (to scale, to change tn the dtffus10n Economic Theory, mainly built upon Schumpeterian adoption, etc.) may be interpreted as the of technologtes ideas, has focused in particular on the integration of consequence of learning effects which the dynamic components of technological change in endogenize technological change and lead to the diffusion of technologies: technological irreversibility and path-dependent phenomena. uncertainty, externalities, diversity and market This approach may be adequate for describing selection mechanisms have been introduced and the diffusion of some energy technologies and recently formalized. the corresponding energy tech11ology trajectories. We will point out several examples, among them The issue of returns perhaps deserves special the competit10n between engine technologies as attention. Within conventional economic theory, a power source for automobiles and competition decreasing returns to factors of production and between different nuclear reactor technologies.

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This analysis should provide new thinking which constantly evolving. Therefore, the economy we are may be relevant for the implementation of energy looking at is, in part, the result of it' own historical Traditional econom1cs R&D policy. path. It creates and imposes path-dependent 1s often unable to processes such that. m the end, the market structure explam the technology is selected by a process that is at least partly random. Increasing Returns Framework lock-m phenomenon m wh1ch one technology Individual technologies may present increasing Moreover. the technology that comes to dominate effectively excludes returns to scale and to adoption. The former is related is not necessari~v the most efficient. Early events can even supenor to decreasing unit costs related to production increase Jock the market into an inferior technological path. competitors from the (]earning by doing), whereas the latter reflects the fact Technologies which impro\'e slowly at fiN but market that, the more technologies are adopted, the more is have huge long-term potential. may he locked-out. learned about them (]earning by usingJ and the more Finally, once a technological and orgamzational incentive there is for further adoptions. Increasing structure has prevailed and benefits from its returns lead to self-reinforcing processes: which increasing returns, it is difficult to change it (the means that a technology that gets ahead, tends not required subsidy to shift from a technologiCal path The more a technology only to stay ahead, but consolidate its position as to an other increases with the degree to which the IS adopted, the more is leader Whereas the competing technologies have process is locked-in). Then, for a firm which ha~ learned about 1t, and progressively greater difficulty in entering or surviving made the wrong choKe between technologie,, the the more incentive in the market. Positive and negative self-reinforcing strategy shifts to one in which they try to anticipate there is for further processes characterize the presence of increasing the next technological trajectory, the next adoptions returns. When technologies exhibiting increasing innovation wave, and to position technologically returns compete, small events may possibly give one and co-operatively (ie hy establishing partnerships of them an initial advantage, favouring its adoption. with other actors) in order to exploit it. Then, thanks to these early events that induce more improvements in this technology than in the others, it We have by now outlined the three theoretical may attract a broader proportion of potential concepts characterizing competing technology adapters, and, fmally, lock-in the market. These 'small systems with increasing returns: non-predictabili(v of The present economy events' that might affect technological choices may be the outcome, possible sub-fJptimal efficiency of the 1s the result of 1ts own h1stoncal path; once a the strategies of individual entrepreneurs, prior selected path, and stmctura/ inertia to shift to an technology has experience of technology developers, political other (perhaps more efficient) path. A model that prevailed under circumstances or simply the timing of contracts. They integrates the lock-in phenomena caused hy random mcreasmg returns 1t IS are typically unknown to the adopter~ before the historical events, induced by learnmg effect.-; and difficult to change the outset of competition. and so are not endogenized in increasing returns, leading to path-dependency and Situation their strategic choices irreversibility, may be well-suited to describing the diffusion of competing technolog1es. This positive feedback can be a source of instability in the economy. It magnifies the random events Modelling of Path-Dependent which historically could accumulate and over time Diffusion Processes determine which competing technology will emerge and eventually lock-in the market. Thus. systems of We will present here a simplified example of the competing technologies are charactenzed hy the way in which the competing technology systems Small, apparently unimportant, events multiplicity of potential outcomes. can he modelled in order to explain the long run may shape ult1mate adoption shares in such a dynamic process. outcomes m a way Evolutionary economic theory, which takes into Particular attention should be paid to the two that mfluence or account the impact of increasing returns, provides a following concepts: constram cho1ces model of the economy as a complex system. From ( 1l the fact that the choice between alternative about wh1ch this perspective it is not deterministiC, not technologies may be affected by the rate of technology to adopt predictable. hut mstead. process-dependent and adoption prior to the time of choice, and

Figure 1: Adoption Function

0.8 =0 ·.:~c. ....~ 0.6 0 ~ 0.4 i 1 0.2

0 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Market Share

(2) the fact that small events - possibly random rather on an adoption fimction which maps the ones - may influence adoptions. market-shares into selection probabilities. The characteristics of this adoption function entirely Let us take the case of a market where a typical determine the different outcomes (the technologies investor has to choose among K possible which may lock-in the market, or the ones which technologies at a gtven time. An individual will survive on it) which are supposed to emerge. adoption is made of a gtven technology with a For this simple discrete sequential-choice problem, probability that is a function of the present market we will demonstrate how different events at the shares of technologies. Increasing returns to outset of the path can dynamically select adoption of a parttcular technology are then completely different final structures. characterized by a more than proportional effect of its market-share increase on its probability of being The function q1 in Figure 1 plots an adoption chosen and adopted. The probability of a particular function when there are two competing energy technology being adopted at any moment is not technologies (for instance, renewable 1 and 2). necessarily equal to its market-share. It depends When the probability of adoption is higher than the Figure 2: Adoption Function

1 0.9 0.8 ! 0.7 ~ 0.6 'S 0.5 ~ 0.4 i 0.3 0.2 1 0.1 0 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Market Share

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market-share, there are increasing retums to potential alternative technologies: the steam adoption. the technology tends to lock-in the engine, gawline engine and electric motor The market, and vice versa. The overall outcome gasoline engine was thought to he an inferior depends on the accumulation of the random events option because it was noisy. dirty and unsafe. that occur in the launching phase of the process. Moreover, it required complicated technical On the other hand, some functions may have, in developments in a new technological area But a the long run. a unique 'table equilibrium. The series of early small events mfluencing some key function q2 in Figure 2 will lead the two competing developers gave the gasoline engme the energy technologtes to ,]me the market equally, opportunity to lead and eventually to lock-in the with 50% each. Therefore. it appears that the market by 1920. Both increasing returns to scale technology will either lock-in or be locked out of and to adoptton may have been operating and Dunng the early years the market if and only if (1) up to a certain market may he invoked to explain the way in which of the motor car a share x, there are increasing returns (cf. function gasoline engine achieved its dominant position cho1ce ex1sted q1l, or at least posittve feedback (cf. function q3) The example shows the non-predtctabihty of the between three and that (2) by x, there are decreasing returns ( cf. wmning technology and the non-supenonty of the propuls1on functlon q1) or at least negative feedback (cf. selected path. It has been widely argued that if the technologies. The function q3J. Therefore, the diffusion process will steam engine had heen developed to the same petrol engine was be path-dependent since the prohahility of extent as gasoline, it might lm e been superior on arguably not the 1deal cho1ce, but structural adoption of technologies does not equal thetr technical and envnonmental pomts of vie\v ngid1ty has kept 1t market-share,. Obviously. 'tructural rigidity keeps the 'infenor' dommant choice dominant, in part due to the worldwtde Figure 3 plots the results obtained with this model, diffusion of the gasoline engine. This with an adoption function of type q3. It shows the technological, organizational and mfrastructural path-dependency of the different simulated lock-in makes a huge effort necessary in order to technological traJectories. The studied technology initiate another technological path today, for locks-in or is locked out of the market on the basis instance. one including electnc cars. It also of the random historical events which select the reinforces the difficulties facing centralised path of diffusion This emphasizes the dynamic authorities and the need to promote the diffusion and realistic properties of such modeb. The of technologie,. obvious non-linearity of competmg technology diffusion processes makes this model integrating Another example that may show lock-m through and simulating realistic patterns look particularly increa,ing return' and learning effects, ts that of interesting. the competition between nuclear reactor The nuclear mdustry technologie' in the 1950's and 1960's. At the prov1des an example of how, once a cho1ce outset of competition four opttom were The Diffusion of Energy has been made about inventoried: light-water. heavy-water. gas and Technologies wh1ch technology to liquid sodium cooled reactors. In fact. the LTS develop, construction We will now examine four historical examples of nuclear industry locked-in to light-water wry expenence gamed w1th lock-m phenomena concerning energy qUickly. Among the factors which can he invoked, this technology can technologies. They highlight the relevance of such the role of the US Navy in first reactor construction giVe 1t the lead a model with path-dependent dynamics and a contracts, the destre of the National Security multiplicity of possible outcomes for describing Council to get a reactor at any price, the Euratom the emergence of technological structure in program and political considerations all acted competing technology systems. early on to favour light-water reactor Construction experience induced learning effects which m turn The ftrst example concerns the competition of gave a lead to this technology and finally intttated engine technologies a' power source for the lock-in phenomena. The selected path was automobiles. In the 1890's, there were several unpredictable and increasmg returns to adoption

Figure J

Market Share Renewable 1

In the technology based sectors of the economy the free compet1t1on 90 180 270 360 mechamsm does not Time (Month) guarantee the surviVal of the best technology and to scale as well as structural inertia of this type was viewed as a public service, which lead to a of production reinforced the leadership of the public electricity sector devoted to nuclear light-water technology. Whether an other technology, it was viewed in other countries as a technological trajectory would have been superior commodity, inducing diversified market structures in the long run, is still under debate. and learning effects. In France, early public decisions locked-in the market to nuclear The third example concerns the competition technology and initiated path-dependency. between photovoltaic electricity technologies: the Structural-inertia again characterizes this crystalline-silicon and amorphous-silicon panels. technological trajectory. The same situation arose Early developments for providing electric system in the case of the decision process surrounding to NASA satellites and the interest of the electronic liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Cultural industry to supply the crystalline-silicon specificities of countries and the different risk Environmentally and component acted in favour of the former aversion behaviours of the actors induced highly sooally deS/Table technology. Increasing returns to scale induced contrasted institutionalized decisions. technologies may learmng effects which maintained its advance and reqwre launched the lock-in. The selected path is still Policy Implications encouragement from unpredictable We may argue that, due to the still InStitUtiOnal limited contribution of solar energy to electricity In the increasing returns cases, there are orgamzat1ons production, the emerged structure remains more arguments both for and against allowing a product flexible than the others pointed out before. or a firm to dominate a market. A locked-in Intensive research in alternative semi-conductors product may provide advantages to consumers, may be able to moderate this lead. but, at the same time may obstruct technological progress by diminishing incentives for other Finally, the analysis of the institutional behaviour companies to develop alternatives. Letting the may also be relevant for describing lock-in and most efficient technology win the market by itself, path-dependent phenomena. For instance, on the basis of 'markets forces' alone, may be different views among policy-makers on electricity invoked in the case of constant and decreasing have resulted in completely different final returns. In the technology-based sectors of the technological structures. While in France electricity economy where increasing returns dominate, the

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free competition mechanism does not guarantee competitive and attractive for producers at micro that the best technology successfully gains a economic level, but in promoting these market share, nor even survives. Under these technologies, public policies tend to maximize circumstances, encouraging and preserving social welfare. It leads them, in the long run, to be incentives to product and process innovation by competitive, and in addition, it helps to avoid R&D seems crucial. Special attention may be running up against a environmental constraint. dedicated to high-tech sectors. Incentives to firms These externalities, related to C02 emissions, are for joint-ventures, for sharing the huge costs of managed and the environmental objective is partly R&D, for exchanging on networks technical and achieved by initiating a socially more beneficial experience knowledge might be relevant. technology path. Technology watch is then strongly Therefore, technological diversity provides the recommended in order to be attentive to the signs opportunity for selecting the socially desirable at the outset of new technological trajectories. In technological path. order to avoid having to face structural inertia if a inferior path has been already taken, it is necessary Increasing returns models suggest also that policy to integrate long term views, externalities, etc. and may pay particular attention to timing when act early. initiating new research: markets which are already locked-in, or close to being so, are of less interest On the other hand, subsidized and sponsored for policy support programs. Effective policy may technologies are priced and strategically concentrate on encouraging the development of manipulated. R&D public funds can be used for promising but less attractive technologies that other purposes by opportunist firms ('Free Rider' might turn out to be, in the long run, the superior behaviour). Private and public R&D results can technological path. also fail to be introduced on the market if they compete against an already commercialized Early adopters act and impose externalities on later product of the company which performed the ones by contributing to the selection of the final research. In addition, the arguments against a wait technological structure. Special attention to such and-see policy (initiating technological trajectories) events is required in order to maximize the social assume that institutional organizations know a benefits (producers' plus consumers' surpluses) of priori which type of returns (increasing, these different technological trajectories. In decreasing, constant) occur in sectors and competing technology systems, environmentally technologies. Institutions face several technologies and socially desirable technologies may require on which they have to bet. Moreover, it may be encouragement from institutional organizations hard to initiate a path in a market before it is even when alternatives have strong imperfections in fully defined. Therefore, the possibility of lock-in terms of negative externalities. For instance, on an inferior technological path remains, even in renewable energies might not be already a regulated market. I

Keywords Increasing Returns, diffusion of new technologies, Evolutionary Economic Theory, R&D policy, technological change

References About the author • Argote L. and Epple D., (1990), Learning Curves in Manufacturing, Science, vol. 247, 920- Stephane lsoard holds 924. a master's degree m • Arthur W.B., (1996), Increasing Returns and the New World of Business, Harvard Business Economic Modellmg and a post-master's Review, July-August. degree (DEA) from the • Arthur W.B., (1983), Competing technologies and lock-in by historical small events: the UniVersity of Pans I dynamics of allocation under increasing returns, International Institute for Applied Pantheon-Sorbonne m Systems Analysis Paper WP-83-92, Laxenburg, Austria. Mathematical • Arthur W.B., Ermoliev Yu. and Kaniovski Yu., (1987a), Path-dependent processes and the Economics and emergence of macro-structure, European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 30, pp Econometncs Before 294-303. commg to the !PTS, he earned out assessment • Dosi G., Ermoliev Yu. and Kaniovski Yu., (1994), Generalized urn schemes and stud1es on public technological dynamics, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 23, 1-19. energy pol1cy and on • Dosi G., Freeman C., Nelson R., Silverberg G. and Soete L. (eds), (1988), Technical Change the 1mplementat1on of and Economic Theory, Pinter Publishers. macro-econometnc • Marchetti C., (1993), Nuclear Energy and its Future, International Institute for Applied models, m the work of Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. ERASME research group (Ecole Centrale • Marchetti C., (1980), Society as a Learning System: Discovery, invention and innovation Pans) related to the cycles revisited, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 18, 267-282. Comm1ssanat General • Nakicenovic N. and Grubler A. (eds), (1991), Diffusion of Technologies and Social du Plan proJects He IS Behavior, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Springer-Verlag. currently researchmg • Nelson R.R. and Winter S.G., (1982), An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, for a Ph D. m Harvard University Press. Modelling the DiffusiOn of New Energy Technolog1es Contacts (particularly renewable Stephane lsoard, IPTS energ1es) and m tel.: +34-5-448 83 66, tax: +34-5-448 83 59, e-mail: [email protected] quant1tat1ve analys1s of Antonio Soria, IPTS Energy R&D policy tel.: +34-5-448 82 94, fax: +34-5-448 82 79, e-mail: [email protected]

16 © IPTS - JRC - Seville, 1996 N o 1 0 December 1996 The IPTS Report

European Craftsmanship and the Multimedia Information Society Juan Stamm'ler Jaliff

Issue; st"'ti~~o» on information,te<;hnoJogy infraStnicture·tend toJocus~nhardware e.g. ' : ,' "- - ' f ' stationar}t Ol' mobile phones· per capita, bandwidth of the information Ihighways, home computers per family, Internet UserS or nodes by cguntry: However, theSe; indicators do rmt reflect consttaints-On software infr~structure develbprrient brought a~ by tnsl,lf;fident Personnel skills. Europe-wlde Statisti(s showing the fine structure of supPly and demand for neW rr .skills are not avajlable. ,· ' . . :

'~'"~:In Spit~ of recent ~elopToents in t.. wideilying.t,_chi'tol<'!~··pr~~~ion of · -$ottware col\tinues-to be tabour-intensive, mo~ ,ota c:r~·.than a manu actucing process; ·The ~a- ~pplication-Qf prQ9ramm.d-,s~~re to all kindsot·~~ds.and-~es is turning th~ :availability of' Sl;,lch .craftsmanshiP· into a· determinant. of i rtdustrial success. Recent-: E.an·' surve~ ShoW that ~sonnet 'With ,sJ

Software applications are rapidly finding their way process, etc.) are becoming more and more into all consumer and industrial products. Among dependent on software, and have to modernise the main contributing factors are access to their software development organizations. In both inexpensive computing power and the rise in cases, a critical factor is the access to personnel communications network connectivity. The latter is with new software technology skills. It is further enhanced by ongoing convergence in estimated that the half-life of skills in software is network-wide protocols for distributed client two years. Recruitment of recent university Increased network server applications and so-called Intranet graduates does not solve the problem on its own, connectiVIty and applications, which use Internet standards for for several reasons. Firstly, the bulk of existing convergence m corporate solutions. Even industrial I&C personnel must also be extensively retrained. network-w1de (Instrumentation & Control) systems, e.g. for Secondly, university degree curricula often do not protoco/s are process control, have switched from hardwired reflect the critical technical skills required for intens!fymg the analogue controllers to distributed digital ones application development in time. Thirdly, software penetration of software applications with programmed applications. development is still much of a craft: programs are mto all consumer and mostly custom-made by individuals who produce mdustrial products Whole new software-based industries are in the and interpret specifications. Very little of the making, such as multimedia entertainment and software production process has yet been educational software. There are plenty of automated. The individual level of craftsmanship opportunities for new businesses and virtual is still very important. A software engineer is an enterprises. But even traditional European apprentice until he learns to master his craft. industries (manufacturing, finance, insurance, Europe could develop a competitive advantage by

leveraging on its populatton's relatively htgh create ·software factories·, which would make educational level and ability to learn new skills. large-scale reuse of previously programmed Furthermore. European product developers could objects. The framework for reuse would start even Software sk11/s have an benefit from their multilingual and cross-cultural earlier. at the analysis and design stages. However, estimated half-life of proficiency, spectftcally regarding the multimedia the current state of practice is far from thts goal, only two years. entertainment industry. and the software development process continues Moreover, little of the to be highly labour-intensive. programmmg process has yet been Technology automated Markets The adYent of wtdespread applications was necessanly accompanied by a software technology Already in 1993, the global software market 'hift with two mam characteristics. reached the size of the hardware market. IBM's software revenues were $13 billion in 1995. • 32-bit programming Microsoft. with $7 5 billion in revenues for 1995, • Object-oriented systems development tops the list of packaged software vendors. Germany's SAP AG, at $1.9 btllion, and Software Both trends converge in one great change in AG, at $0.5 billion. also made the top-20 software software production. The first is industry Jargon for vendor list. However, European prospects do not the software architecture required to handle look as promising today in high-growth sectors multimedia: 3-0 graphics, video, sound, animation, like multimedia. In 1995, 56% of the world etc It take' tts name from the 32-bit desktop production of CD-ROM titles came from the USA. hardware archttecture which has made it possible. and only 38% from Europe.

The second denominates a shift in paradigm to Official US relative employment growth forecasts 'upport more efficient software production and for 2005 placed computer programmers (56% up reuse. It has become a necessity for the on 1990 level), systems analysts and computer implementation of graphical user interfaces. but scientists (79%) at the top, only surpassed by has gone on to permeate all realms of industrial home-health aides. software development. Industry-standard analysis and design methods and programming languages As seen in Figure 1, this is still not particularly have all had to change to support object significant in terms of total employment. orientation. The ultimate goal for the future is to Nevertheless, indirect effects of high growth IT Figure 1: Labour market for software programmers broken down by country W1dely available 32-bJt architectures and ob;ect-onented Ireland 1!!1!11 Software programmers employed, programming 1mply Grece .._ 'OOOs important changes m Switzerland ..._ mdustrial software Norway~ development, bnnging the goal of 'software factones' closer ':~~i- England Germany ~··,•••• Japan ••••••• United States ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Source Howard Rubm, Hunter College, quoted m The Econom1st

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(Information Technology) sectors must be taken used to generate the database. To date, 421 into account. For example, each and every organisations in 12 industry sectors from 15 Europe still lags behmd multimedia production team involves more non-IT countries have been assessed or have turned in a the US tn the people than software analysts and programmers. self-assessment. Results show a wide spread in mult1med1a market The latter must be competent in the latest software performance. Leaders outperform laggers by a development techniques in order for the end factor of 5 in development productivity, 10 in product to be competitive. maintenance productivity, 30 in delivery quality, and 5 m delivery on-time and within budget. The Multimedia The explosive growth of the Internet and the IT-sector has the highest performance level, but all development calls for World Wide Web in the last years is also opening sectors show a wide variance. m1xed teams w1th a up new market opportumties for start-up Web vanety of IT and non-IT application developers by expanding the size of Medium-sized orgamzations (50-500 people) have skills the potential market and reducing distribution the highest average levels of both performances costs. New software technologies for the Web, like and practices. Small ones Oess than 50 people) the Java net-based programming language, along have the lowest average level of practices. Statistical with 'pay-per-use' revenue collection (in which analysis shows that the key practice areas which revenues can also be 'passed on' to sub-suppliers) affect performance the most are all human-centred: The World Wide Web can reduce market entry costs. skills, quality and culture. Furthermore, the skills IS also opening up practice shows weak relative strength, which new potential markets European software companies have hitherto means that tt has a high improvement potential. succeeded mostly in niche markets. A good example is that of French object-oriented The second one is a hearing on the prospects of the development tool vendors. But the factors national software industry organised by the mentioned above mcrease the probability of Swedish IT-commission on December 13th, 1995. European start-ups that lock-in large-volume global The general theme was "How can Sweden develop markets, thanks to increasing returns (see 'Diffusion a successful software industry by the year 20001" of Energy Technologies: The Influence of Increasing Questions were put forth to some 70 Returns' m this issue of Tbe IPTS ReponJ. representatives from the software industry, customer organisations, higher education, research and the financial sector. Responses were European surveys summarized into eight areas for proposed IBM's benchmark Two recent surveys confirm the importance of skills government activities, of which two are related to study has shown that development, education and training for the education and training: medium-s1zed software industry. The first one is an ongoing orgamzations are the international benchmark. It is recognized that there • To undertake initiatives to enter the software best performers is a large spread in the performance of software engineering area in depth and stimulate development organisations, that ts m their ability to research in software development and better deliver products that work right, on time and in technology transfer from university to industry budget. This makes it particularly useful to carry out • To undertake initiatives which facilitate for a benchmarking effort (see 'Benchmarking of Best industry and university to find synergy to Practices: A Perspective for Policy' Tbe IPTS Repon create a national Media Lab. Some countnes are Issue 9 for more on the subject). experiencmg a One of the main obstacles to reaching the shortage of The Application Development Benchmark was proposed vision is that universities provide just a appropriately trained started in late 1994 by IBM. It is based on an quarter of the graduate engineers needed by graduates in the IT analysis of both performances and practices within Sweden in the software field. Both surveys' field software development organisations across Europe. findings reinforce recent educational concerns at A structured questionnaire with 66 questtons is the national level elsewhere in Europe. For

example. the Netherlands' SWAP 2000 (Software Several of these issues were also addressed at The evolution of the Action Plan 1996-2000) reports that the number of INSPIRE '96. the first International Conference on market means that IT needs have changed a Dutch first-year computer science students has Software Process Improvement - Research into great deal; a w1der fallen from 1200 in 1988 to

20 © IPTS - JRC - Seville, 1996 N o 1 0 December 1996 T h e I P T S Report

priority to skills related to new technologies in A survey methodology could be deployed. for high demand, it 1,\ ould be very useful to collect example, through the governmental employment statistics about skills mventories and industry services. It would be important to repeatedly update demand Doing so across Europe, this would not the skills categories in order to reflect labour market only help to train new software professionals dynamics. For example, today there is a large eff1oently, it would also help in the effort to demand for skills m Java, a Web programming retrain the existing work force and give a hint language developed by Sun corporation, which was about Europe's competitiveness in the IT sector. launched as recently as spring 1995. I

Keywords labour statistics, education and training, software, multimedia, information society

References • Bundesministerium fur Wirtschaft, lnfo 2000: Deutschlands Weg in die lnformationsgesel/schaft, February 1996, Germany. • Douglas, P., Alliger, G.M., Goldberg, R Client-Server and Object-Oriented Training: Refining the Curriculum, IEEE Computer, 1996, Vol. 29, No. 6. • Freeman, C., Soete, L. Work for all or Mass Unemployment? - Computerised Technical Change into the 21st Century, 1994, Pinter Publishers, London. • http://www.cordis.lulespritlhome.html, ESPRIT Web server. • http://www.europe.ibm.com/getdodpsmemea/benchmklindex.html, IBM Software Development Benchmark. About the author

• IT-kommissionen, Sa kan Sverige utveckla en framgangsrik programvaruindustrin infor Juan S. Jaliff holds an ___; :, '~: 2000-talet, hearing report, 31 January 1996, Sweden. M.Sc. in Nuclear Engineering, from • Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, SWAP 2000: Balseiro Institute and The Software Action Plan 1996-2000, April1996, the Netherlands. an MBA tn • Proc. INSPIRE '96: International Conference on Software Process Improvement- Research Management of into Education and Training, Bilbao, 1996, British Computer Society/European Software Technology, from MIT Institute. Before )Otntng IPTS, • Silverthorne, S. Help Wanted, PC Week, 1995, Vol. 12, No. 34. he spent 14 years as • The Software Industry survey, The Economist, May 25, 1996. a software engtneer and ltne manager at ABB Sweden. As a Acknowledgements Technology Watch I gratefully acknowledge the comments from Messrs. Waldemar Baron (VDI-TZ), Remi Barre Scientiftc Offtcer, his (osn. Chris Freeman (SPRU), Michael Rader (ITAS) and Hans Schaffers (TNO), and the current research information supplied by Messrs. Peter Goodhew (IBM) and Alejandro Moya (DGIII). tnterests include the tnformatton society, Contact educational software Juan Stamm'ler Jaliff, IPTS, and telecommuni tel.: +34-5-448 83 56, fax: +34-5-448 83 59, e-mail: [email protected] cations.

Supporting Decision Processes: Data Constraints and the Role of Knowledge based Tools H. Hernfmdez and P. Canarelli

Issue: Decision makers are having . to deal with ever larger volumes ·of infprmation generated by the rapidly increasing capacity to cOllect data fr:Qm.a-wid~ vatiety'·$)hources~, This trend goes in parallel with the growing need for a better u~derstancJi~ of the· co~plex relationships betwee~ all the etements 'Of human activity, espedatly in. policy and~ : decision making. In this context, there is scope for enh~ncing th~ methodol~:used for. -knowledge extraction and·so benefit-from its full potential to.~uwort4edslon"Jlocesses.'. ' . - ~ - ' ''1', . ,. Relev~ Modern. knowledge extraction tools can play an important fO!e i~.;nalysing : ·complex ·systems and supporting sensitivity al'ld risk analysis;, forecastiag, ,andi scenario · '- -~ ~ ' ' c ,..;t.k ' ... studies. This is eSpecially relevant Wb~n dealing witt:. infqrmstion ex~ 1f\. a human way (ie. non~mathemati~l way) stich as expe~ opiniOn ana poblic perceptfbr:iQf.r~k and acceptance (eg. of new. products~_technolc:)gieS,.ete.). Yet, since there ispo ~~~;. for general effective. application,. the su~bility of which depends .ori t,beM 'sYstem ._ . characteristics, the' choice' of one or other knowledge extr~on ·tooi' inai:· t»a, .Or·.' · U!'\dermine the an'afysis and strongly· infl~nc-e the decis!Qn. pt~.. ·~- ·:··. ... '

1. Decision processes and 1960). Simon suggested the formulation of support systems realistic goals that reflect satisfactory solutions instead of optimal ones, and proposed adapting Decision theory is an essential branch of the decision procedure to human heuristic In the past decision operations research and resource management behaviour. He introduced the concept of three process models were and its methodology has been developed at the interactive and iterative phases: intelligence solved usmg lmear intersection between applied mathematics and phase, comprising the information and programming and computer engmeering. In the past, decision knowledge acquisition and design and choice graphical techniques, processes were considered to be simple rational phases, for constructing possible alternatives and but the lim1ted mathematical optimisations, based on linear selecting the best among them. (Figure 1). pract1cal application of programming and graphical techniques. this approach has However, this oversimplification resulted in Over the last 20 years, together with the made 1t necessary to system representations which were far from real reformulate introduction of information technologies, decision procedures to take conditions and consequently of limited practical theory has evolved and brought the construction mto account the application. Since the end of the 1950s, the Nobel of integrated Decision Support Systems (DSS). A limitations both of prize-winner H. Simon introduced the need to large number of DSS tools have been developed information and the reformulate decision procedures in order to take to cope with the diversity of decision problems human capacity to into account the limitations both of information and with the needs of different decision makers. process Jt and the human capacity to process it (Simon, Among the main support tools are Management

Figure 1: Main components of decision processes

System Info Model .... Analysis The evolution of deciston theory has Intelligence Destgn Chotce brought about the constructton of Information Systems (MIS), which are applied to useful knowledge. Methods and tools dealing with mtegrated Deciston all management tasks; Executive Information this problem are being regrouped by emerging Support Systems (DSS), Systems (EIS), oriented to top level executives; fields namely knowledge discove1}' and data computer-based tools and Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS), mining (Fayyad, 1996). incorporating experttse which target the growing needs of group from human behavioural and communication and decision processes. These In the context of decision theory, the procedure of cognitive disopltnes tools are computer-based platforms, based on knowledge extraction, (Figure 2), can be seen as advanced software engineering techniques and a subdivision of the intelligence phase, which incorporate expertise from human behavioural requires in-depth analysis. Data mining targets and cognitive disciplines, so providing, mainly the algorithms to extract relevant patterns downstream, user-friendly interfaces. from databases and is commonly used by MIS. Whereas knowledge discovery refers to the overall Nevertheless, upstream, in the intelligence phase, knowledge extraction process and, as it is closer the capacity to extract and represent knowledge to the field of AI, seems suitable for unstructured remains a main bottleneck. An effort in that decision problems. direction is observed by recent attempts to integrate techniques from Artificial Intelligence (AI) into DSS, These fields encompass a large number of in particular the so-called knowledge-based tools. techniques that attempt to cover the wide scope In the next section, the AI contribution is shown to of systems and applications. However, there is be especially valuable for decision-making no technique or recipe to apply to solve any processes that involve human knowledge and its system in general. In fact, contrary to the associated representation problem. automation of procedures in other areas, in this field, the analyst's contribution is required to develop or adapt available techniques for the :Z. Knowledge discovery InformatiOn acquisition specific problem. There are two main capaoty ts expanding The analytical constraints set by incomplete and overlapping characteristics determming the type beyond the capabtltty complex information are worsening due to the of technique to be used. First, the type of of traditional growing capacity to acquire information. This trend information relevant for the system, ie. the techntques to process is fed by the increasing performance of information quantity and quality of available data. Second, tt, promottng the technologies, allowing the construction of huge the number of variables involved in the system growth of the ftelds of databases and collection of information from and their interdependencies These two knowledge dtscovery diverse sources and in a variety of forms. This characteristics define the degree of and data mintng exceeds information processing capacity and in representability of the system, which is the particular burdens the methodology to extract central issue of knowledge discovery.

Figure 2: Knowledge extraction procedure No techntque is applicable to all systems. The choice :------:------:------l

I f 1 I I I 1 I will depend upon the I I 1 I I I' '1 I' quantity and qual1ty of ' ' ' tnformation, the • • • ! number of vanables and their available data --.1 1--.

Rau· Jnfonnatzon Tarp,et Data Preprocessznp, Data J!zmng Knou•ledge

There 1s a necessanly Source Adapted from Fayyad, 1996 large difference Model building techniques apart their deficiency in taking into account non between the tools linearity and effective multidimensional analysis wh1ch deal with Building models is at the heart of the scientific which are two main aspects of today's data bases. numencal information and those that handle method. Indeed. a model is nothing other than an lmgwst1c description aggregation of existing knowledge which 1s Almost as old. linear regression that has largely structured in order to he used in a systematic way. diffused over the last decades thanks to the Over the last century, a large number of model availability of computers, leads, on the other building techniques have been developed. They hand, to complete models linking input can he broadly classified in two groups depending descriptive variables and output dependent on whether they deal with quantitative or variables. Yet, the issue of modelling non linearity qualitative information. present in the relationships between variables is not more considered Neural networks permit to Statistical analysis Raw information is usually expressed either through go beyond this pomt. A neural network underlies most of the a set of numencal data or through a linguistic architecture mimics that of the bram with synapses techniques for description. While the former medium is relevant and neurones. Provided with a representative set extracting knowledge from noisy data when information is relatively accurate and when of data. it is able to learn (possibly non linear) uncertainty is low, the latter is clearly adapted to the relationships between variables and, eventually, to case of vague, fuzzy or imprecise information, and lead to a non-linear global function representative concerns exclusively human expertise. of the spec1fied problem.

Given the large difference between these two Apart from function-based mathemallcal mformat1on representallons, it is no wonder that the description, other types of models are also respective processing tools present large differences. possible, using in particular conditional rules, Neural networks are able to learn from thus offering greater transparency of the knowledge format. Several methods are known representative sets of Extracting knowledge from data data, to ftnd non for extracting rule-based knowledge from data. ltnear global functions As far as noisy data are concerned, knowledge For instance, decision trees. fuzzy neural representative of the extraction is essentially based on statistical networks or the natural selection-based genetic specific problem analysis, which covers a vast set of specific algorithms. The latter having shown the great technique,. While older techniques. e.g. from advantage of highlightmg only the coherent and simple probabilities to more complex principal highly structured part (in other words. the component analysis- have a clear descriptive role, useful part) of the information leaving as1de lts they may he less adapted to model building, let noisy component.

A further line of analysis aims at understanding domain and low flexibility-, they have however Deciston trees, fuzzy complex non-linear dynamic systems, e.g. those met their objectives as some aspects of human neural networks and exhibiting self-organizing propertie~. chaotic reasoning could be mimicked in a functional way. the natural selection regimes or strong sensitivity to initial based genetic conditions. These systems are widespread m Today, fuzzy expert systems make it possible to algonthms are ;ust nature and underlie the mechanisms of many get closer to mimicking human deductive some of the methods human acttvtties. Conventional techniques are reasoning. Like their more traditional counterparts, for extracting rule based knowledge from limited in their capacity to analyse such fuzzy experts systems rely on conditional rules for data systems, thus the interest of recent disciplines, storing knowledge issumg from expertise. Yet. the chaos theory and synergettc~ in particular, fuzzy approach authorises a higher flexibility of which present rather a descriptive character but the reasoning with the possibility of assessing the may, m some cases, help improve the degree of applicability of each rule as a functton understanding of such systems. of a particular context. The whole set of rules is then combined in a framework leading to a Human knowledge is conclusion that truest rules will have the strongest made dtfftcult to Extracting knowledge from influence (Canarelli, 1996). represent by the large human expertise share of tmpltcit This human-like deductive reasoning also offers knowledge and the Human knowledge is far less easy to represent. the possibility of adjusting the accuracy of the complexity of linguisttc descnpttons Among the main difficulties are the large share of description to that of existing expertise, leading to implicit knowledge, the low underlying accuracy a family of models covering the full range from and the variety of linguistic descriptions which are qualitative to quantitative description. used. A first step necessary for dealing with human knowledge is thus to structure it, i.e. to 3. A typical decision problem on select a limited number of items and, possibly, to urban transport Artifioallntelligence ts group them in categories. Historically, structural dtvtded tnto a hard analysis has been one of the simplest approaches Some of the issues discussed above can be approach, whtch seeks for processing this knowledge. Making use of a illustrated with a common decision problem. to mimtc all aspects of highly simplified structure of relationships- similar Consider a hypothetical case of an average the human mtnd, and to a binary format - between items, structural European city facmg congestion problems (and a more pragmattc, analysis authorises that way to extract higher associated pollution). The commercial zone is soft, approach order interdependenCles. partially, on its southern side, surrounded by a captunng only its river on one side and connected to the other stmplest aspects Going beyond this simple analysis tmplies to get northern areas by two main roads. The main closer to Artificial Intelligence. Artificial accesses to this zone are completely clogged Intelligence is probably one of humankind's oldest during rush hours. Among the alternative solutions quests. Two approaches, two philosophies, have to the problem are the construction of, say: historically been associated to tt. A hard approach i) another bridge, consisting of mimicking all aspects of human ii) another northern road access, Fuzzy expert systems mind, which is still a very long way to go, and a iii) a tram-way. make tt posstble to get soft - and pragmatic - version aiming at capturing closer to mtmtcking only its simplest and roughest aspects. Clearly, the To evaluate these alternatives. one can rely on the human deducttve latter has already largely reached its objectives large amount of historical data collected during the reasoning These use with the dtffusion of expert systems in almost city's development. The data can help to assess the condttional rules every field of activity during the last two decades. extent of congestion lessening as a function of stonng knowledge each alternative. However, these first order tsswng from experttse Even if expert systems have shown important estimations, based only on past traffic activity and drawbacks -for instance, a very limited knowledge population patterns assuming that 'nothing

changes elsewhere', will hardly reflect the mid to knowledge-based techniques would cover the long term evolution of the city. because important more uncertain part. For instance, a rule-based future shaping factors are not included in this fuzzy model could he used for, first, storing existing restricted framework. Indeed, urban areas are human expertise and assumptions, and, eventually, highly complex dynamtc systems whose evolution combining this knowledge (Figure 3). The urban is very difficult to predict. Transport is only one of environment IS a the many variables strongly coupled in the urban The results from both approaches can lead to complex system system, which depends on endogenous aspects largely different conclusions. Trends extracted dependmg on both but also on exogenous factors (Forrester, 1969l. from city historical data only can, for example, endogenous aspects Examples of such exogenous factors are future show that housing and working patterns quickly and exogenous factors social patterns, (e.g. lifestyle or the acceptance of displace toward the southern zone and that information technologies), economic evolution experience with road building have shown a (e.g. city unemployment and growth rate), and quick adaptatton of road users, leading in the past, technological evolution (e.g. the effectiveness of to a rapidly decreasing congestion in former road telematics). The analysis of these exogenous accesses. The conclusion which arises factors is rather difficult because the available immediately from this analysis is, of course. the information is usually uncertain, vague and benefit provided by building another bridge, imprecise. Actually, its main source is often human which logically should then be the choice of the knowledge. therefore, more appropriate modelling decision maker. is necessary to evaluate these alternatives. On the other hand, the overall hybrid model One interesting possibility is to construct a hybrid could extend the analysis by integrating wide model, made of local, historical, and well defined expertise outside the specific transport issues. For information which is itself contamed in a more instance, roughly expressed expertise could general, but fuzzier and more uncertain, represent the slowly decreasing size of household framework. This model would allow the decision or the quickly increasing concern about personal makers to simulate the evolution of each alternative safety in urban areas. The hybrid model could -and eventually score accordmg to some specific thus take into account further aspects such as the criteria- in the context of the assumed evolution of growing car ownership or the increasing some highly uncertain exogenous factors. While reluctance to use public transport. While the the histoncal data-based component could rely on conclusion offered by the reduced model would more or less conventional statistical modelling, still be valid (in terms of congestion only) for the

Figure 3: Example of hybrid model. The system is decomposed in two according to its characteristics and available information: exogenous/endogenous variables. uncertainty. time constants. etc.

- -~------~ ' l ' 1,

Historic data (e.g. traffic&: activity) One possibility 1s to 1 construct a hybnd Exogenous Global model Local model l model, compnsmg a ( \ patterns Human Statistical/ dynamtcal vanety of mformat1on -r- Knowledge-based wh1ch 1s 1tself Numenc-ba;ed ' Congestion ' contained m a more (e g lifestyles) ' \.. :' general, but fuzz1er '------.t----~ : ' ' ' and more uncertam, ~------~------· framework

~~--~-~------~~~--~~ short term, the hybrid model, would go beyond, processing, widens their scope for management through looking at the resulting scenarios of applications, but does not necessarily improve Trends extracted from evolution. For example. it could show the m1d to the quality of decisions. More effort is needed c1ty h1stoncal data alone favour a purely long-term extra benefits of the tramway option upstream in the intelligence phase. to develop transport onented (provided that the insecurity issue is dealt with in tools which better represent the system. This is solut1on (a bndge), an effective manner) and the increasing stressed by the needs of decision makers who whereas the hybnd drawbacks of the bridge option. arising from the must deal with increasingly complex systems. model could take into induced building expansion around the bridge Moreover, in recent years, the rapidly increasing account further and its subsequent traffic consequences. capacity for information collection, per se, does aspects outs1de of not guarantee better knowledge acquisition. On specif1c transport The interest of the extended hybrid model is thus the contrary, this burdens the analysis and does 1ssues, such as the to enlarge the comprehensibility of the context not alleviate the constraints set by uncertain or growmg car ownership and to offer to the decision maker other criteria incomplete data, or the difficulties in or the mcreasmg (e.g. the important time horizon aspect) on which representing human knowledge. Therefore. it is reluctance to use her/his decision can rely. necessary to shift priorities from information publ1c transport collection to analysis. Effort should be devoted to developing and promoting knowledge 4. Conclusion extraction techniques, e.g. knowledge-based The development of decision support tools and techniques from AI, and to enhance the role of in particular their better downstream information scientific analysts in this field. • About the authors Patnck Canarei/J has a PhD m phySICS. He IS References currently the • Canarelli P., 1996, The method of fuzzy scenarios: principle and application to the future managmg director of of congestion in urban centres, EUR Report (to appear, 1996). COMPLEX SYSTEMS, a Pans-based • Fayyad U., G. Piatetsky-Shapiro, P. Smyth, S. Uthurusamy, editors, 1996, Advances in consultancy company Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, AAAI/MIT Press. whose main actiVIties • Forrester, J.W., 1969, Urban Dynamics, MIT Press. are data-mimng and • Simon H. A., 1960, The New Science of Management Decision, Prentice Hall, Englewood prospect1ve studies, Cliffs, N.J. both earned out usmg advanced artJf1cial Contad mtei/Jgence techniques such as H. Hernandez, IPTS, neural networks, ','".1 tel +34 (9) 5 448 82 92, fax +34 (9) 5 448 83 26, e-mail: [email protected] genetic algonthms P. Canarelli, COMPLEX SYSTEMS, 18 rue d'Abbeville, 75009 Paris, and fuzzy logic. tel/fax 33 1 40829312, e-mail: [email protected] Hector Hernandez holds an engineenng doctorate in the analys1s of mdustnal processes and chem1cal engineenng. At present, he 1s a research-analyst m the area of transport and mdustnal technologies at the IPTS

Biodegradable Plastics from Renewable Sources Mario Demicheli

....- Several s~Udies have :coindded in pree and .the us. for biodegradable pOlymeFS_ of:'t¥1tural origi_n.. . Market growth is ,being ct~ed 'by atrthori~Ies~ 'the-green :.~nstlltler. aild :·· ' , .q)en. · actiVist groups. In response, CQtilpanies aroun9. th~ VIIQrld arfl•'speedm~t ~. . hn~ developments While ~eploying ,complementllry mark.@t"stta1f9i~; · ·__ . ---~~ ;· · ·.. ~·' · ' ' . ' ··~ ( ' • ' '' ~ • ~ ~ L ' ' ; ' ~ - ~' ~ '' : ,< ,"" ,.,.j' ,< 'f \ f_,., '~ \ ' \.;,.' ·..._.nee: ProductiOp ~tbiodegr~~~'Plasti~ ~wta:~·.en~~ ····. · enviroorpenfiil benefits, ~k!ngt}$.ell:a~tion QJ-lrtteg~i-'hele · ' " rnana~mentPuuey in.EUrope_~hVihile. ~sO;'tfle'~e~~ ?f Jat;!e& . be' a useful wfii-of bringihQ.abQut the, tr;anlitlot:t:fr&ffl'~h'tri . . developing, a Eur(:)pean:m~·~J)iodegradables. -- · · · : · · '~·~r~:;~; ' ' • < ' ' , .

As conventional Analysis can provide. For these reasons, reaching the conditions for replacement of non-degradable plast1cs are pers1stent Plastics and the environment m the env1ronment, polymers by degradable plastics, particularly for Improperly disposed It is mcreasingly being realized that the use of long single-use disposables and packaging applications, is plast1c matenals are a lasting polymers for short-lived applications is not of major interest both to decision-makers and the s1gntficant source of entirely justified. especially when increased concern plastic industry [3]. envtronmental exists about the preservation of living systems. The pollution, potentially elimination of waste plastics is therefore of interest The move to renewable sources harmmg wt!dltfe in surgery, hygiene, catering, packaging, agriculture, fishing, environmental protection, technical and The production of biodegradable plastics can be other potential applications [1]. viewed within the wider context of the 'greening of industry', with most national RTD programmes Most of today's plastics and synthetic polymers are viewing the use of renewable biomass as an produced from petrochemicals. As conventional alternative feedstock to fossil fuels in chemical plastics are persistent in the environment, improperly manufacturing. The chief reasons for this are the disposed plastic materials are a significant source of exploiting the potential of photosynthesis for environmental pollution, potentially harming wildlife. energy savings, curbing the greenhouse effect, In seas, for example, plastic rubbish -from ropes and developing eco-compatible processes & products, Renewable biomass nets to the plastic bands from beer packs- chokes diversifying agriculture out of food production feedstocks (crops) and and entangles marine mammals. One study on and, possibly, generating employment [4]. agro-industrial 'waste' cetacean carcasses found that 1 in 30 had choked on streams emerge as the plastic debris [2]. Plastics have also a costly impact on Thus both renewable biomass feedstocks (crops) key alternatives to waste management, and municipalities are becoming and agro-industrial 'waste' streams emerge as the fossil fuels tn chem1cal aware of the significant savings that collection of 'wet' key alternatives. Indeed, wastes offer the greatest manufactunng organic wastes in so-called 'biobins' to be composted promise as a feedstock: not only are they cheap,

but their conversion solves another specific applications. In fact, their unique physical environmental problem by turnmg ·waste' into properties mean that some plastic materials will useful products. This means that countries remain unsubstituted for a long time [6]. without scope for crop expansion could still benefit from the approach, both economically Biopolymers, conventional and ecologically. by reducing the environmental plastics and biodegradable Recycling of impact associated with the disposal of their plastics conventional plastics is industrial wastes. This has led to substantial a way of reductng the research, and also very recently resulted in some The resins used to make biodegradable plastics problems assoCiated innovations in two main directions. namely the fall mto two broad categories: natural and with plastic waste, but development of new microbes that can convert synthetic. Natural resins (or biopolymers) are it has the drawbacks cheap substrates, and the cloning and expression largely based on renewable resources such as that the matenals are of biosynthetic genes in plants. starch and cellulose, and polyhydroxyalcanoates often contamtnated with other wastes and (PHA) produced by microbes. Other polymers result tn poor qual1ty such as proteins and pectins may also potentially Extending the recycling loop plast1cs be developed for biodegradable plastics and Recycling of conventional plastics IS a way of polymers. Polylactides (PLAJ, i e. ahphatic reducing the problems associated with plastic polyesters formed by polymerization of lactic acid waste However, many packaging materials do is usually included in this category since the not lend themselves to recycling owing to monomer can be produced by fermentation [7]. contamination with food and ink, and the necessary cleaning prior to recycling is very Synthetic polymers are made of petroleum-based and expensive. Packaging recycling costs Germans other feedstocks and include polyester and about DM3 per kg Furthermore, reprocessing polyethylene polymers. An example of a often leads to a downgrading of the polymer use biodegradable, synthetic polymer is polycaprolaL1one, and an increased hold-up in the system. A lack of a thermoplastic polyester resin. Conversely, physical markets for recycled polymers has led to large or chemical modification of a natural biopolymer may stockpiles and the dumping of waste products in result in a loss of its biodegradability. Conventional. Both natural and synthetiC resins are other countries. A recent change in German petrochemical-based plastic materials are not easily used to make legislatiOn concerning packaging recycling, degraded in the environment because of their high biodegradable plastiCS. dropping quotas from the initial 64% to 50%, is molecular weight an hydrophobic character. Disposal Natural restns are largely a response to the lack of market for low of plastics, therefore has become a major commonly based on quality recycled polymers. Depolymerization environmental concern, resulting in programmes to renewable resources technologies are being developed that can return recycle, incinerate or compost these wastes [8]. like starch and the plastics to its starting material (feed cellulose or monomer) so that it can then be used to remake polyhydroxyalcanoates The plastics sector the non-degradable polymer. However this (PHA) produced by approach will increase the cost of the feed Consumption of plastics material m the EU plastics microbes. SynthetiC monomer and hence the final plastic. and does processing industry was approximately 30 million resins are petroleum not solve the degradability problem for the tonnes m 1994. Germany accounts for nearly one based plastic that still ends up into the environment [5]. quarter of total EU demand. Asian economies are becoming more integrated and less dependent on Even the more efficient recycling loop of non the US and Europe. Japan, Korea, Taiwan. China biodegradable plastic waste in any production and Singapore are the main plastic processing process has an associated production cost, to countries in Asia with production of more than 25 which the disposal cost must be added. million tonnes; i.e. one-quarter of world production. Biodegradable plastics are, however, not to be Chma's output of plastic products has been growmg seen as replacement for plastics, but only for at an annual rate of over 20o/o during the 1990s. In

recent years, EU exports to central and eastern agriculture and horticulture (greenhouses, Cooperative strategies Europe countries have increased tremendously [9]. mulching), films for construction, shoppers, like those m As1a could Consequently, waste management problems are carrier bags, refuse bags, heavy duty sacks, and also be explored m Europe, espeCially expected to worsen in these countnes, some of films for a wide range of technical applications giVen the feedstock which may possibly join the EU in the near future such as magnetic tapes, credit cards, hot foil potential of central [10] In highly-industrialized countries plastics stamping, cables, motor insulation, furniture films and eastern Europe represent between 20 and 40% of muniClpal solid and office films. Agriculture accounts for 3% of waste by volume. The time has therefore come to total plastic consumption in Europe. Plastic films think of cooperation in developing strategies for for covering greenhouses have enjoyed both degradables, similarly to what IS happening in Asian innovation and spectacular growth over the last countries, and especially hecause eastern and twenty years [9]. central European countries possess the ahundant agricultural resources which are needed to produce Structure of the business the feedstock [11]. The plastics industry exists within the broader context of the petrochemical industry. This Packaging sector has recently been hard hit by the need to The production of Accounting for one-third of demand, the production direct significant amounts of capital packaging matenal is of packaging material Is the largest subsector of the expenditure and R&D funding in order to the largest subsector plastics processing industry. The food mdustry comply with ever stricter environmental of the plast1cs constitutes the major end-user followed by the regulations [13]. Existing capacity for polymer processing industry distribution and beverage industries. Despite production is currently in the hands of the main and the food industry environmental concerns, the European market for petrochemical groups, which in turn respond to constitutes the major plastiC packaging is rising by billions of ECUs every the demand for raw materials by processors. end-user followed by year. Pharmaceuticals, toiletries and cosmetics are The plastics processing industry (converters) is the distnbut1on and large users of packaging. Hence, to keep abreast of mainly composed of small and medium-sized beverage mdustries future restrictive legislation aimed at reducing companies. After procurement of the raw packaging weight and volume, these industries are material, the medium-sized plastics processor very interested in seeing cheap biodegradable has to sell plastic products through large scale packaging available on the market [9]. industries, like car makers, manufacturers of electric and electronic equipment and The greatest growth rate has heen predicted for department store chains [9]. polyester bottle resins, particularly in the carbonated drinks market, whose annual demand Biodegradable polymer technology can at now stands at more than 500 million ECU. In present only offer a limited range of materials. response to this, Japanese companies have This is the main reason why US and Japan are Existing polymer recently designed a substitute for polyester hottles now focusing on the technological development production capac1ty is with excellent physical properties by modifying of biodegradable polymers, in order to expand currently in the hands 'Bionolle', a biodegradable polyester, using a the range of these polymers that can fulfil of the main technique known as stretch-blow moulding [12]. processing and property requirements for many petrochemical groups, applications in which biodegradability would be which m turn respond an important materials property [14]. The to the demand for raw Plastic films biochemical industry (food, grain, sugar) is matenals by processors Plastic films are mostly based on polyethylenes (converters) which are therefore in an ideal position to build capacity mainly small to with LOPE accounting for one-sixth of total EU for biodegradable plastics at the expense of the medium-s1zed plastics consumption. Major end-uses of plastic petrochemical industry or, conversely, the compames films are printed films for automatic packaging, petrochemical industry could adapt its shrink and stretch films for overpacking, films for technology for processing renewable feedstocks,

Table 1: Biodegradable plastics in Europe: business examples [18] Company Activities

Biotec (Melitta) Commercial business/production of biodegradable starch/polycaprolactone Emmerich (Germany) (PCL) compounds for e.g. packaging and waste handling (refuse bags) Four US Department applications. of Energy labs have BASF Development of synthetic, biodegradable eo-polyesters and blends with signed an agreement Ludwigshafen (Germany) starch e.g. for flexible films applications. to manufacture Bayer/Wolf Walsrode Pre-commercial synthetic, biodegradable eo-polyester amide for e.g chemical feedstocks Leverkusen (Germany) flexible film applications. from renewable farm Novamont Commercial business/production of starch compounded with crops at a significantly lower cost than vta Novara (Italy) polycaprolactone and/or polyvinylalcohol;' Mater-Bi'. conventional thereby profiting from a long-standing process might be extended to use industrial organic petroleum-based experience. In the transition, there exists a niche wastes (such as from the sugar industry) to chemosyn thests in which SMEs that integrate both polymers replace corn. production and processing could emerge. Metabolix (Cambridge, Mass) has recently licensed MIT's patents on the insertion of the genes for the Recent developments production of the key enzymes in the mechanism Space does not permit a review of all of production of PHB (polyhydroxybutyrate - an biodegradable plastics types existing or under essential component of biodegradable polyester development. In what follows only two recent thermoplastics) mto bacteria and transgenic corn. examples of innovation are mentioned. The transgenic bacteria and plants can also co polyesterify B-hydroxybutyrate with B Four US DOE (Department of Energy> labs have hydroxyalcanoates up to C12. As so far PHB- the signed a $7 million agreement with Applied only PHA shown to be produced in plants - has CarboChemicals, a specialty chemicals poor physical properties, and attempts to blend it company, to manufacture chemical feedstocks with other polymers and plasticizers have had only limited success, these innovations would from renewable farm crops at a significant lower Ustng technology from cost than via conventional petroleum-based seem to be essential for a broader use of PHA in MIT the Metaboltx chemosynthesis. The project follows the recent commodity products [16]. The exciting potential of company ts worktng DOE development of a new microbe as part of the production of biodegradable plastics in a low on the productton of a process that converts corn into the key cost, renewable production system (using corn. components of intermediaries used to make a range of cassava, soybean, etc.) is also apparent from the btodegradable industrial and consumer products, including spate of recent joint-ventures as well as business polyester polymers, clothing fibres, paints. inks, food purchases by big multinational commodity firms. thermoplasttcs ustng additives, automobile bumpers. Existing like Monsanto and Cargill [17]. Table I refers to transgentc bactena domestic markets for such chemicals total more some of the pre-commercial and commercial work and corn than $1.3 billion a year. A rise in the number of that is going on in the EU. employees is also expected over the next decade as the company builds manufacturing Previous false starts in the development of capacity and expands into global markets [15]. biodegradable materials have foundered on This is a typical example of combining account of high costs, absence of good physical chemosynthesis with biosynthesis plants, an properties (mainly water barrier and heat approach pursued in America to save energy. resistance), lack of an adequate infrastructure for The R&D line being followed suggests the waste management and an adequate means possibility that in the near future the process whereby the public can differentlate products.

Biodegradability and to the environment [19] Testing the amount of compostability mineralization alone does not take into account the nature of the residue left. Furthermore, Compostmg 1s an Certain blends of polyethylene and starch can be biodegradation of blends of non-degradable accelerated b1ological degraded by physical agents (such as light). synthetic polymers and starches, which can decay process v1ewed Indeed, a type of polyethylene is bemg marketed actually 'biodisintegrate', ts doubtful. by many to be a that includes a catalyst prompting the polymeris potent1al solut1on to thermal degradation. Nevertheless, btodegradation Germany is dealing with the issue of plant health the solid-waste is quite another thing. in tts biodegradability/composting standards; ·a management cris1s product must be fully biodegradable under ex1stmg m many parts ASTM standard D-5..f88-94d defines biodegradable composting conditions and the compost material of the world as "capable of undergoing decomposition into cannot be phytotoxic or ecotox!C- it will support carbon dioxide. methane, water, inorganic plant and microbial activity. In fact, the compounds, or btomass in which the predominant assumption that using natural ingredients always mechanisms is the enzymatic action of micro leads to harmless products is not true. Most organisms, that can be measured by standard tests, important is the final destination of the in a specified period of time. reflecting available biodegradable material [7]. A key 1ssue IS whether disposal conditions". the residue left by One issue to be addressed is if current laboratory b1odegradat1on IS Composting ts an accelerated biological decay tests accurately reflect the biodegradability of a harmful to the process vtewed by many to be a potential material in an real compost pile. The environment, ensunng solution to the solid-waste management crisis environments in which biodegradation takes place that all organtc existing in many parts of the world. Compostable differ widely in terms of microbial composition, compounds have been is defined as "capable of undergoing biological pH, temperature and moisture and they are not converted into morgan1c ones alone is decomposition m a compost site as part of an readily reproduced in the laboratory. Another not enough available program, such that the material is not issue for standards development is balancing the visually distinguishable and breaks down to need for shelf life with the demand for rapid carbon dioxtde, water, inorgamcs and biomass, at degradability. The development of more a rate consistent with known compostable sophisticated distnbution systems so as to avoid materials." [7] products sitting in warehouses. and the creation of more composting facilities directly related to the Management of solid waste should include a disposal or these products would be needed. In Tests are made dtff1cult critical understanding of the fate of synthetic Japan, the Biodegradable Plastics society (BPS) by the fact that polymers which may be disposed as solid waste has proposed a standard for degradability that has environments m which in municipal landfills. Research, marketing and been accepted there and is being considered by biodegradation takes regulatory reviews of degradable polymers the International Standards Organization [14]. place dtffer w1dely and should take into account the characteristics of are not easy to true landfills-not just lab tests of degradatiOn. The OK Compost Conformity Mark is awarded reproduce m the jointly by the international quality inspection laboratory To meet the compostability requirement, all of bureau A.I.B.-Vin~otte Inter and Organic Waste the blend components have to fully biodegrade System, a research institute in the field of under composting conditions and wtthin the biodegradability. Manufacturers can use thts label timeframe of the composting process. Draft on their material as a proof that it passes the national and European test standards for biodegradability test and is appropriate to measuring biodegradability under composting compost [20]. So far, no internationally adopted conditions are currently under development. The standard laboratory method exists for key issue is whether the biodegradation material investigating aerobtc biodegradability in a (ie the residue left by biodegradation) ts harmful composting environment.

Challenges ahead have already appeared, for example in the Netherlands, where citizens must pay the same tax Acceptance of biodegradable polymers is likely to for plastics that go to composting as for those that depend on four unknowns: (1) customer response go to incineration [21]. to costs that today are generally 2 to 4 times higher than for conventional polymers; ( 2) The development of starch-based biodegradable possible legislation (particularly concerning water plastics looks very promising given the fact that soluble polymers); (3) the achievement of total starch is inexpensive, available annually, biodegradability; and (4) the development of an biodegradable in several environments and infrastructure to collect, accept, and process incinerable. The main drawbacks the industry is biodegradable polymers as a generally available running into are bioplastics' low water-barrier and The publtc wt/1 need to option for waste disposal [14]. the migration of hydrophilic plasticizers with be made aware of the consequent ageing phenomena. The first problem need for recycling and to be encouraged to In a social context biodegradable plastics call for a together with the cost factor is common to all other make the necessary re-examination of life-styles. They will require biodegradable plastics. changes to thetr separate collection, involvement of the general ltfestyles public, greater community responsibility in As far as biological polyesters (PHA) are installing recycling systems, etc. On the question of concerned, the recent purchase of Zeneca's Biopol cost, awareness may often be lacking of the business by Monsanto, who aims to expand it to significance of both disposal and the environmental include plant-derived polymers, does not suggest a costs which are to be added to the processing cost. bright future for microbial product10n of these polymers [22]. Nevertheless, research on the Biodegradability is tied to a specific environment. production of the polymers by bacteria is For instance, the usual biodegradation time worthwhile because it may be useful in helping us requirement for bioplastic to be composted is 1 to understand how to expand the range of polymers 6 months. In Europe, compostmg is on the made by plants [23]. increase, and the percentage of population with composting facilities available for their rubbish In summary, the bioplastics of the future will be stands at about 80o/o in the Netherlands, 40o/o in produced from renewable sources, will have a low Germany, and 30o/o in Belgium. Adequate energy content and will display in-use properties regulation is still lacking however, and complaints similar to those of conventional plastics. 6

Keywords biodegradable plastics, market, standards, renewable sources, green chemistry, composting

References • [1] Doi, Y., et al., eds. Biodegradable Plastics and Polymers., ed. Y. Doi and K. Fukuda (eds.). 1994, Elsevier. • [2] Pearce, F., Dead in the water. New Scientist, 1995. 4 Feb: p. 26-31. • [3] Colvin, R., Bioderadable polymers make small-scale return. MPI, 1995(April): p. 19-21. • [4] AIR agriculture and agro-industry, including fisheries programme (1991-1994). Catalogue of research and demonstration projects. EUR 16552 EN, 1995. • [5] Environmentally Friendly Plastics for the Future. aCHiEvement, 1995. 1(April). • [6] Fritz, H.-G., et al., Study on production of thermoplastics and fibres based mainly on biological materials. 1994, DG 12. • [7] Farrell, M. and N. Goldstein, Unraveling the biodegradable plastics maze. Biocycle, 1995. 36(11): p. 74-79.

• [8] European Parliament and Council Directive 94162/EC on packaging and packaging waste. 1994. • [9] Panorama of the European Industry 1995/1996. 1995. 17-8. • [10] Abbey, A., Social needs proposed as priority for EU research. Nature, 1996. 382: p. 194-. • [11] Joint Biodegradable Plastic Research Using Starch Planned For Thailand, in Japan Chemical Week. 1995 (Nov 9). • [12] Stretch Blow-molding Process Applied to Biodegradable Resin, in Japan Chemical Week. 1995 (Mar 30). • [13] Endless Frontier, Limited Resources, 1996, Council on Competitiveness: About the author Washington DC. Mano DemJcheiJ 1s a • [14] Lenz, R.W., JTEC monograph on Biodegradable Polymers and Plastics in Japan: chem1cal engineer w1th a PhD m appl1ed Research, Development and Applications. 1995. chem1stry He has • [15] Walli, R., ORNL part of $7 million deal to turn corn into chemicals. ORNL press worked m the field of releases, 1996. catalysis m orgamc • [16] Biotechnology pantent could lead to polyester harvests. C&EN, 1996. July 29. chem1stry and clean • [17] Japan, U.S. Biodegradable Plastic Makers Tie Up For Asian Sales. Japan Chemical processes m different Week, 1996(03128196): p. 01. organizations • [18] Hakola, J., Neste Oy Chemicals. (personal communication), 1996. At the IPTS he IS currently performmg • [19]1tavaara, M. and M. Vikman, A simple screening test for studying the technology watch and biodegradability of insoluble polymers. Chemosphere, 1995. 31 (11-12): p. 4359-4373. fores1ght on agn-food • [20] Ponthieu, E., Did you say biodegradable? The Orcazette, 1996. 4(1): p. 7-9. technologies, • [21] Bioplastic Seminar (DGXII/E2). 1996. Oct 1. biotechnology and environmental • [22] Monsanto to purchase Zeneca's biodegradable plastics business. C&EN, 1996. April technologies m 29: p. 31-. general He also • [23] Somerville, C., Carnegie Institution of Washington. (personal communication), 1996. partiCipates m the co operation activ1t1es and Acknowledgements stud1es between the This work has been carried out with the help of DG XII-E2 (agro-industrial research), the Organic EU and Th1rd Reclamation and Composting Association (ORCA) and the International Biodegradable Mediterranean Products Manufacturers Association (IBPMA), whose contribution is appreciated countnes He 1s interested m agro-mdustnal Contacts research (food and Mario C. Demicheli, IPTS, non-food applications) tel. +34-5-448 83 21, fax +34-5-448 83 26, e-mail: [email protected] and m reg1onal Bert Lemmes (ORCA, IBPMA) Av. E. Meunier 83, Box 1, B-1200 Brussels, Belgium, development tel. +32-2- 772 90 80, fax +32-2-772 68 35.

34 ,,, iF\S- JRC · s,~vdle, I CJ96 N o 1 0 December 1996 T h e I P T S Report

The European Commission is promoting wastewater reclamation and reuse Laurent Bontoux

In the context of the development of its treatment, groundwater recharge and Euro-Mediterranean policy, the European industrial cooling. Union has provided R&D funds for joint projects linking the North and the South of However, while the technology available for the Mediterranean in the framework of the wastewater reclamation and reuse is reaching Avicenne program (now closed). maturity, there is still widespread debate about the need for international water quality The IPTS was invited as an observer during standards in this area, including for irrigation. the meeting of the Avicenne project The IPTS is promoting the idea of reflection ''Integrated Management of Reclaimed at the level of the European Union on quality Wastewater Resources in the Mediterranean standards for wastewater reclamation and Region" (93 AVI 076) which took place on reuse. The Avicenne project is contributing to September 27, 1996, in Faro, Portugal. The the exchange of information and host was Prof.]. Beltrao, of the Universidade determination of the appropriate technologies do Algarve. as well as promoting the expansion of safe wastewater reuse practices in a Euro Worldwide, wastewater reclamation and Mediterranean perspective. reuse is estimated to represent an extra water resource amounting to 15% of existing water This project, co-ordinated by Prof. M. Salgot, consumption. Locally, this proportion can be of the Universitat de Barcelona, started in significantly higher (e.g. 30% of agriculture February 1995 and aims to accomplish four irrigation water and 19% of total water supply main tasks: in Israel in the future). In view of the increasing pressure on all water resources, in • Investigate wastewater treatment for both industrialised and developing countries, water and sludge reclamation. supplementing water resources with reclaimed wastewater can no longer be • Investigate the health and environmental neglected, justifying the IPTS's interest. effects of wastewater reclamation and reuse. As the majority of wastewater reclamation and reuse applications are related to • Investigate alternative wastewater irrigation, this technique and its associated disposal techniques. technology are becoming mainstream. As a result, the R&D efforts appear to be • Investigate new developments in the broadening their focus to include different analytical work needed to monitor the application areas such as soil aquifer quality of reclaimed wastewater.

The research teams involved in the project processes used in wastewater treatment and originate from seven countries: France, on the characterization of suspended solids. Germany, Greece, Israel, Portugal, Spain and The French team, in coordination with Prof. Tunisia. Prof. T. Asano, of the University of Salgot's team, is studying soil filtration as an California at Davis, USA, a world renowned option for advanced wastewater treatment, expert in the field of wastewater reclamation biomass production (ie. growing trees) and and reuse, is collaborating with them as an groundwater recharge. Additionally, Prof. adviser to the project. Salgot's team is working on developing good wastewater reuse practices. He is also, along In Greece, current efforts aim particularly at with the Portuguese team, working on the promoting the development of wastewater characterization and agricultural application reuse on the islands, where the water of sludges. The Portuguese team is also resources are more limited. In Tunisia, looking at the fertilizing properties of treated reclaimed wastewater accounts for wastewater. The Israeli team is also mostly approximately 130 million m3 per year and concerned with the agricultural use of there the discharge standards are more treated wastewater (impact on crops, on soil stringent than for reuse. A harmonization of salinity, etc.). the standards is therefore necessary and experimental work on optimizing ponds for The study results are being disseminated by improving water quality is being undertaken. professional papers, conference proceedings In Germany, the research work focuses on and a treatise on wastewater reclamation the optimization of the phase separation and reuse.

Contact Laurent Bontoux, IPTS, tel: + 34-5-448 82 99, fax: + 34-5- 448 82 79, e-mail: laurent.bontouxjrc.es

36 <0 IPTS · JRC - Seville, 1996

The IPTS Report IS published in the first week of every month, except for the months of January and August. lt is edited in English and is currently available free of charge in four languages: English, French, German and Spanish.

\.0 O"l w 0

The IPTS thanks the follow1ng members of the European Science and Technology Observatones Network (ESTO) for their special role in launching the introductory series of this publication:

• Agence pour la Diffusion de !'Information Technologique (ADIT) - F • Centre d'Etudes de Populations, de Pauvrete et de Politiques SoCio-Economiques !International Networks for Stud1es in Technology, Environment, Alternatives, Development (CEPS-INSTEAD) - LUX • Centre for Exploitation of Science and Technology (CEST) - UK • Centre for Technology and Policy Studies (TNO)- NL • Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, lnstitut fur Technikfolgenabschatzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS) - D • Observatoire des Sciences et des Techniques (OST) - F • Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex (SPRU) - UK • VDI - Technolog1ezentrum (VDI - TZ) - D • VTT Group for Technology Studies - SF • Ente per le Nuove Tecnologie, I'Energia e I'Ambiente (ENEA)- IT

A full list of ESTO members is available on request from the IPTS at: IPTS European CommiSSIOn, W T C , lsla de la Cartuja s/n, E-41 092, Sevilla, Spa m tel +34-5-448 82 84, fax +34-5-448 82 35, e-mail ipts_secr@JrC es