ISSUE BRIEF No. 3501 | February 13, 2012

Venezuela’s Presidential Primary: Capriles Radonski Ready to Challenge Chavez Ray Walser, Ph.D.

n February 12, nearly 3 mil- ’s First Presidential alternative to Chavez with a vision Olion Venezuelans voted in the Primary. The February 12 pri- not unlike that of Brazil’s popular nation’s first genuine presidential mary was a result of the labor of ex-president Lula da Silva. Capriles primary. Voters selected a single the Coalition for Democratic Unity. downplayed confrontation and candidate—Henrique Capriles Created in 2008, the coalition played assured voters that Chavez’s social Radonski—to face Venezuela’s a pivotal role in helping the fractured programs or missions will not be authoritarian populist leader Hugo opposition build a structure for unity. gutted. He has promised better Chavez in a presidential contest on In September 2010, the coalition was economic management, a halt to October 7. instrumental in fielding a slate of leg- endless nationalizations, and a hope Chavez, the bellicose anti- islative candidates that won a major- that economic freedom and oppor- American architect of Venezuela’s ity of votes, although not a majority tunity will expand. Capriles has set Bolivarian Revolution, has occupied of seats in the National Assembly. his sights on restoring transparency power since 1999. He has increas- By 62 percent, voters selected and professional integrity within ingly converted Venezuela’s troubled Henrique Capriles Radonski, age 39, Venezuela’s national oil company, democracy into a one-man, one-par- currently governor of the populous PDVSA. Addressing public safety and ty electoral dictatorship, made him- state of , out of a field of five. citizen security will also be high on self the primary backer of the anti- Capriles’s closest rival, Governor his agenda. American alliance of Latin American Pablo Perez of , received 30 A Capriles victory in October and Caribbean states known as percent of the vote and was quick to would also open the door for a major ALBA, and become an ever-closer endorse the victor. reorientation of foreign policy away ally with Iran. A victory in October Almost 3 million of Venezuela’s 18 from support of radicalism and anti- would give Chavez another six-year million registered voters turned out Americanism. In all likelihood, it term. The stakes are clearly high. to vote on February 12. Prior to the would lead to a rapid shrinking of elections, 2 million was considered a the Cuban presence in Venezuela, an benchmark below which the capacity end to bankrolling the tyranny of the

This paper, in its entirety, can be found at of the opposition to mobilize voters Castros with Venezuelan oil, and the http://report.heritage.org/ib3501 would have been questioned. The severing of all non-diplomatic, non- Produced by the Douglas and Sarah Allison higher-than-expected turnout was commercial ties with Iran. The oppo- Center for Foreign Policy Studies an impressive show of opposition sition candidate would put a greater The Heritage Foundation strength. premium on developing natural ties 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002–4999 An Alternative Vision for with Colombia and Brazil and open (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Venezuela. The youthful Capriles the door for quick normalization of Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily has stressed the politics of modera- relations with the U.S. and restora- reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill tion. He aims to distance himself tion of anti-drug and anti-terror before Congress. from the past and offers a democratic cooperation. ISSUE BRIEF | NO. 3501 February 13, 2012

Can Chavez Be Defeated? What additional debt will allow Chavez in places as diverse as Egypt happens in the future hinges sig- to deliver more social spending and and Cuba, the U.S. should stand nificantly upon Chavez’s state of subsidies for the poor. Another tactic behind civil society, defenders health. In June 2011, Chavez under- will be generating a fear that opposi- of human rights, and the watch- went surgery for a pelvic abscess tion victory will usher in of dogs of government integrity and admitted to suffering from an violence and social disorder. and should use the unique assets undisclosed type of cancer. Since late A recurring concern is whether of the National Endowment for 2011, Chavez claims he is cancer-free a defeated Chavez would refuse to Democracy and other mecha- and has resumed an active sched- relinquish office. While Chavez says nisms of democratic support in ule. The true state of Chavez’s health he would step down, others within Venezuela. is a national secret. In the event of the top national leadership—includ- his incapacity or death, succession ing Minister of Defense General ■■ Press Chavez to honor a com- struggle within leadership circles Rangel Silva, head of the increas- mitment to step down if defeat- would likely occur. ingly politicized armed forces—have ed. President Obama should press Chavez is certainly vulnerable stated that the military will not Chavez to step down if defeated on many key issues. Rampant crime, accept an unfavorable outcome at the and commit to an orderly transi- inflation, food scarcity and short- polls and will defend the revolution- tion to a Capriles government. ages, failures to address infrastruc- ary path. The penetration of Cuban ture and electrical energy problems, security and intelligence operatives ■■ Begin contingency planning. If and overall mismanagement of the into the regime do not augur well for the opposition wins in October, economy are all easy targets for a smooth transition. the labors of reconciliation and opposition criticism. The extent of The U.S. and Venezuela. While reform will require strong U.S. corruption with the Chavez regime is some argue that Chavez’s influ- backing. Planning for such an another prominent theme. In general, ence in the region has declined, this eventuality should begin now. the average Venezuelan wants life offers little relief to Venezuelans. Chavez’s Delusions of improvements and social benefits but The indisputable fact is that with Grandeur. For the moment, the does not support Chavez’s campaigns his personal command of oil wealth Chavez drive for re-election will be of expropriation and the destruc- and his strident anti-U.S. stance, formidable, and the opposition has tion of private property or efforts to Chavez opposes U.S. interests and a great distance to cover. However, follow the Cuban way for his country. values. It is an unspoken assumption the impressive response of voters Millions of Venezuelans also reject that a genuinely democratic turn in on February 12 makes a change of the relentless polarization of society, Venezuela is in the interests of the leadership appear more possible. As which has been another hallmark of U.S. To advance a freedom agenda for Capriles observed, Chavez “believes the Chavista regime. Venezuela and the Americas, the U.S. he is God. He thinks he can’t lose, The challenge for Capriles, how- should: and that’s very good for us.”1 ever, will be an uphill one. Chavez’s —Ray Walser, Ph.D., is Senior current approval rating, for example, ■■ Support free and fair elec- Policy Analyst for Latin America in has risen in recent months to approx- tions in October. This means the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center imately 56 percent. At Chavez’s close scrutiny of the entire gamut for Foreign Policy Studies, a division command are cadres of loyalists and of Chavista chicanery, not just of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom unlimited access to media, where he guarding against fraud on election Davis Institute for International demonizes the opposition as “retro- day. Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. grades” and worse. He will exploit the levers of patronage in a country ■■ Sustain pro-democracy efforts. where one in every four voters holds Despite the recent backlash a government job. Oil revenue and against democracy promotion

1. William Neuman, “Opposition Voters in Venezuela Pick a Challenger for Chavez,” The New York Times, February 12, 2012.

2