Supreme Court Vacancy
Key findings from a survey among likely voters in battleground states, conducted February 2016 SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Telephone survey among 800 likely 2016 voters in battleground states, conducted February 19 to 22, 2016
Battleground states: CO, FL, IA, IL, MO, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI
Generic 2016 Presidential Vote: 39% Democrat, 45% Republican
Generic 2016 Senate Vote: 43% Democrat, 45% Republican
Race: 79% whites, 10% blacks, 7% Hispanics
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 2 Voters Are Following the Vacancy Issue US Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia recently passed away, creating a vacancy on the Supreme Court. How closely are you following news about the vacancy on the Supreme Court and discussion of how the president and the Senate should address this issue?
Following very closely
Democrats 41% Independents 28% 40% Republicans 44% 38% Men 45% Following Women 37% Following very somewhat Age 18 to 35 18% closely 22% closely Age 35 to 49 39% Age 50 to 64 46% Following Age 65/over 54% not too/ not at all Non-college grads 35% closely College grads 47%
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 3 Battleground Voters Say Obama Should Submit Nominee Should President Obama submit a nominee to fill this vacancy on the Supreme Court, or should President Obama not submit a nominee and wait to let the next president make the nomination?
62%
Obama should Obama Obama submit a should should not nominee 35% submit submit nominee nominee
Obama Democrats 88% 9% should not Independents 67% 30% submit a Republicans 36% 61% nominee
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 4 Large Majority Say Senate Should Consider Obama Nominee and Take Up-or-Down Vote President Obama has said that he will make a nomination to fill this vacancy on the Supreme Court in the next few weeks, in accordance with the US Constitution. Should the Republican majority in the Senate consider Obama's nominee and take an up-or-down confirmation vote on that person, or …wait for a new president to submit a nomination? 69%
Consider/ Wait Republicans vote on for new should Obama president’s consider nominee nominee and vote on Obama’s Democrats 90% 9% nominee 28% Independents 69% 25% Republicans 49% 46% Republicans should wait for new president’s nomination
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 5 Strong Opposition to GOP Senate Majority Refusing to Consider Nominee Support for possible Republican Senate actions regarding an Obama Supreme Court nominee
Disapprove Not sure Approve
Use filibuster to (49% strongly) 64% 2% 34% prevent vote
Refuse to consider any (46% strongly) 60% 5% 35% Obama nominee
Give hearing and 23% 6% 71% (38% strongly) up-or-down vote to Obama nominee
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 6 Concern over 14-Month Vacancy If the Senate waits for a new president to be elected before considering a nominee, that means there will be a vacancy on the Supreme Court for at least 14 months, perhaps longer. In your view, how serious a problem would that be for the country?
52% 47% Very serious problem Democrats 61% Independents 44% Republicans 14%
Very Senate vote: serious Democrat 63% problem Not a Republican 12% 38% serious Swing 38% problem 23%
Very/fairly Just somewhat/ serious problem not serious problem
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 7 Democrats Win Debate on Proceeding with Nomination and Consideration With which statement about whether the Senate should consider President Obama's nominee do you agree more?
Democrats: The Constitution gives the president the responsibility for nominating justices and the Senate the responsibility for confirming them, and the Constitution does not make any exceptions for election years.
Agree much more 62% 44%
Republicans: No Supreme Court justice has been nominated and confirmed in an election year in the past 80 years, and there is no reason to rush such an important decision now.
Agree much more 34% 23%
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 8 Voters Less Likely to Support Senator Who Opposes Consideration or Puts Ideology before Qualifications
Senator who says Senate should refuse Senator who says he/she would oppose to consider or vote on Obama SC Obama SC nominee who is not a strong nominee conservative even if qualified
By 2016 vote for Senate 63% Vote Vote 60% Demo- Repub- More likely to support this crat lican Swings senator for reelection More likely 10% 43% 20% to support Less likely to support this Less likely 83% 37% 57% senator for reelection to support 25% 25%
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 9 GOP Majority’s Handling of Nomination Raises Concerns for Many Voters Proportions saying each raises very/fairly MAJOR CONCERNS about the way the Republican majority in the Senate is dealing with the Supreme Court vacancy
63% They are following the lead of extreme voices such as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and putting politics ahead of their constitutional duties.
63% Refusing to consider any nominee of the president—even if the nominee has excellent qualifications and was recently overwhelmingly confirmed by these senators as a federal judge—is extreme and irresponsible.
62% This is the first Senate majority in American history to refuse to consider any nominee from the president, no matter how qualified they are.
Supreme Court Vacancy: Survey of Likely Voters in Battleground States February 2016 10 Supreme Court Vacancy
Key findings from a survey among likely voters in battleground states, conducted February 2016