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Hereford Transport Model Local Model Validation Report

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Hereford Transport Model Local Model Validation Report REPORT NO 70020236 HEREFORD TRANSPORT MODEL LOCAL MODEL VALIDATION REPORT SEPT 2017 Report (3rd Draft) HEREFORD TRANSPORT MODEL LOCAL MODEL VALIDATION REPORT Herefordshire Council Project no: 70020236-540 Date: September 2017 WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff 2 Tangier Central, Taunton, Somerset, TA1 4AS Tel: +44 (0) 1823 281 190 www.wsp-pb.com QUALITY MANAGEMENT ISSUE/REVISION 1ST DRAFT 2ND DRAFT 3RD DRAFT Remarks Date April 2017 May 2017 September 2017 Mark Hill Mark Hill Mark Hill Prepared by Glen McAdam Glen McAdam Glen McAdam Signature Checked by Marcus Chick Marcus Chick Marcus Chick Signature Authorised by Tom Metcalfe Tom Metcalfe Tom Metcalfe Signature Project number 70029880-571 70029880-571 70029880-571 Report number 70029880-571\1\1 70029880-571\1\2 70029880-571\1\3 File reference NA NA NA ii PRODUCTION TEAM CLIENT Herefordshire Council Project Mairead Lane Manager Herefordshire Council Business Jeremy Callard Case Lead Role on Project Balfour Beatty Living Places Dean Neale Project Manager Balfour Beatty Living Places Tom Hancock Assistant Project Manager WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF Assistant Transport Planner Glen McAdam Senior Transport Planner Mark Hill Associate Tom Metcalfe Associate Director Marcus Chick Hereford Transport Model - LMVR WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Herefordshire Council Project No 70029880 CONTENTS Page 1 STUDY OVERVIEW ..................................................................... 1 1.1 PROJECT INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 1 1.2 AIMS OF THE LOCAL MODEL VALIDATION REPORT ................................. 1 1.3 REFERENCES ............................................................................................... 2 2 MODEL DESCRIPTION ............................................................... 3 2.1 DEMAND MODELLING SYSTEM ................................................................... 3 2.2 HIGHWAY MODEL INTERACTION ................................................................ 3 2.3 MODEL COVERAGE ...................................................................................... 3 2.4 SOFTWARE ................................................................................................... 3 3 SUMMARY OF DATA COLLECTION .......................................... 5 3.1 OVERVIEW .................................................................................................... 5 3.2 REFERENCES TO THE HEREFORD TRANSPORT MODEL - REPORT OF HIGHWAY SURVEYS................................................................ 5 3.3 IDENTIFICATION OF CALIBRATION DATA ................................................ 16 3.4 IDENTIFICATION OF VALIDATION DATA ................................................... 23 4 HIGHWAY MODEL DEVELOPMENT ........................................ 25 4.1 NETWORK DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................ 25 4.2 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................ 30 4.3 PRIOR TRIP MATRIX TOTALS .................................................................... 44 4.4 MATRIX ESTIMATION ................................................................................. 45 4.5 ASSIGNMENT PROCESS ............................................................................ 45 4.6 ASSIGNMENT PARAMETERS ..................................................................... 47 5 HIGHWAY MODEL CALIBRATION ........................................... 48 5.1 NETWORK CALIBRATION .......................................................................... 48 5.2 CALIBRATION CRITERIA ............................................................................ 48 4 5.3 AM PEAK CALIBRATION PRE-MATRIX ESTIMATION ............................... 49 5.6 ME2 CHANGES ............................................................................................ 54 5.7 MODEL CONVERGENCE ............................................................................ 55 5.8 AM PEAK CALIBRATION ............................................................................ 55 5.9 INTERPEAK CALIBRATION ........................................................................ 61 5.10 PM PEAK CALIBRATION ............................................................................ 66 5.11 STRESS TEST ............................................................................................. 71 5.12 SUMMARY ................................................................................................... 72 6 HIGHWAY MODEL VALIDATION .............................................. 73 6.1 OVERVIEW .................................................................................................. 73 6.2 AM VALIDATION.......................................................................................... 73 6.3 INTERPEAK VALIDATION ........................................................................... 76 6.4 PM PEAK VALIDATION ............................................................................... 79 6.5 ROUTING VALIDATION ............................................................................... 81 7 CONCLUSION ............................................................................ 83 7.1 AM PEAK MODEL........................................................................................ 83 7.2 INTERPEAK MODEL.................................................................................... 83 7.3 PM PEAK MODEL ........................................................................................ 83 Hereford Transport Model - LMVR WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Herefordshire Council Project No 70029880 Sept 2017 4 5 TABLES TABLE 3-1: 2016 ROADSIDE INTERVIEW SURVEY LOCATIONS ............................... 6 TABLE 3-2: 2016 CAR PARK LOCATIONS ................................................................... 7 TABLE 3-3: 2016 ATC SITES ........................................................................................ 9 TABLE 3-4: 2016 MCJC SITES .................................................................................... 12 TABLE 3-5: ATC SITES NOT USED IN CALIBRATION/VALIDATION PROCESS ...... 17 TABLE 3-6: LINKS COUNTS USED IN CALIBRATION PROCESS ............................. 17 TABLE 3-7: MCJC SITES USED IN CALIBRATION PROCESS .................................. 22 TABLE 3-8: LINKS COUNTS USED IN VALIDATION PROCESS ................................ 23 TABLE 4-1: DEFAULT ROUNDABOUT PARAMETERS .............................................. 26 TABLE 4-2: ROUNDABOUT SATURATION FLOWS ................................................... 27 TABLE 4-3: PRIORITY JUNCTION SATURATION FLOWS (PCUS) ............................ 27 TABLE 4-4: SIGNALISED JUNCTION SATURATION FLOWS (PCUS) ....................... 27 TABLE 4-5: PEDESTRIAN CROSSING MODELLED ................................................... 28 TABLE 4-6: USER CLASSES, VEHICLE TYPES AND TRIP PURPOSES ................... 32 TABLE 4-7: MATRIX COMPOSITION .......................................................................... 33 TABLE 4-8: CAR INTERVIEW TRIP PURPOSES ........................................................ 35 TABLE 4-9: LGV INTERVIEW TRIP PURPOSES ......................................................... 36 TABLE 4-10: SURVEY PERIOD TO PEAK HOUR ALLOCATION ............................... 36 TABLE 4-11: RSI INBOUND INTERVIEWS .................................................................. 37 TABLE 4-12: RSI INBOUND TRIPS ............................................................................. 37 TABLE 4-13: CAR PARK INTERVIEWS ...................................................................... 38 TABLE 4-14: RSI OUTBOUND INTERVIEWS .............................................................. 39 TABLE 4-15: RSI REVERSE TRIP PROPORTIONS .................................................... 40 TABLE 4-16: TOTAL OBSERVED TRIPS (VEHICLES) ............................................... 40 TABLE 4-17: WEEK TO DAY FACTOR ....................................................................... 42 TABLE 4-18: PERIOD TO HOUR FACTOR.................................................................. 42 TABLE 4-19: TOTAL INTERNAL TRIPS (VEHICLES) ................................................. 43 TABLE 4-20: TOTAL EXTERNAL TO EXTERNAL TRIPS (VEHICLES) ....................... 43 TABLE 4-21: TOTAL HEAVY GOODS VEHICLES (VEHICLES) .................................. 44 TABLE 4-22: PRIOR MATRIX TOTALS (VEHICLES)................................................... 44 TABLE 4-23: COMPOSITION OF PRIOR MATRIX (VEHICLES) .................................. 44 TABLE 4-24: ASSIGNMENT GENERALISED COSTS ................................................ 47 TABLE 5-1: AM PEAK – SCREEN LINE FLOWS – PRE ME2 ..................................... 49 TABLE 5-2: AM PEAK – LINK COUNT CALIBRATION SUMMARY – PRE ME2 ......... 49 TABLE 5-3: AM PEAK – KEY CALIBRATION TURNING MOVEMENTS SUMMARY – PRE ME2 ............................................................... 50 TABLE 5-4: INTERPEAK – PRE-ME2 JOURNEY TIME VALIDATION......................... 50 TABLE 5-4: INTERPEAK – SCREEN LINE FLOWS – PRE ME2 ................................. 51 TABLE 5-5: INTERPEAK – LINK COUNT CALIBRATION SUMMARY – PRE ME2 ..... 51 TABLE 5-6: INTERPEAK – KEY CALIBRATION TURNING MOVEMENTS SUMMARY – PRE ME2 ............................................................... 51 TABLE 5-7: INTERPEAK – PRE-ME2 JOURNEY TIME VALIDATION......................... 52 TABLE 5-7: PM PEAK – SCREEN LINE FLOWS – PRE ME2.....................................
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