SPECIAL REPORT

Argentina is facing much more than legislative elections

Buenos Aires, October 2013

BARCELONA BOGOTÁ LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO IS FACING MUCH MORE THAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

1. THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT Argentina is going through the last week before the mid-term 2. AFTER THE ELECTORAL BATTLE elections where as it seems, nothing would dramatically change the 3. CONCLUSION results obtained in the Simultaneous and Obligatory Open Primary AUTHORS Elections (PASO in Spanish). llorente & cuenca 1. THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT

This new electoral battle, in which 127 seats for National Deputies, 24 for National Senators and more than thousand local and provincial legislative authorities will be renewed, will take place next October 27th, date in which the third anniversary of the death of the former President Néstor Kirchner will also be commemorated.

While this seemed to be an electoral process where the distinctive aspect had to do with the defeat suffered by the governing party in the Province of Buenos Aires —main electoral district in Argentina— at the hands of , Mayor of Tigre Partido and former kirchnerist, former Executive Director of the Argentinian Agency that manages pension and retirement funds and former Chief of Cabinet of Ministers during Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s first term, a series of events later became part of the public agenda and, somehow, intervened both on the forecasts in view of October “Again, the candidate of 27th and on the political future of the South American country. the Frente Renovador, Generally speaking, the different opinion polls carried out within a Sergio Massa, establishes very dynamic political and economic context and their conclusions himself in the first place, do not present significant changes with respect to the figures that with a voting intention appeared as a result of the last primary elections. around 39%” Again, the candidate of the Frente Renovador, Sergio Massa, establishes himself in the first place, with a voting intention around 39%. Martín Insaurralde, the candidate of Frente para la Victoria and governing party, is positioned in the second place according to the studies with a voting intention of 32%. , leader of the Frente Progresista Cívico y Social, appears in the fight for the third place and manages to retain most of the votes from the PASO (11.7%) and she could even add some more points benefitted from the loss of votes that the candidate of Unión Celeste y Blanco, Francisco de Narváez could suffer, who would occupy the fourth place with a 6.3% voting intention.

In the last days, the gap between the candidates of the Frente Renovador and the Frente para la Victoria would have reduce. Although the difference between them is bigger than the one in the primaries, it is smaller than the one indicated at the surveys carried out in August and September of this year. According to what the main political analysts point out, there would

2 ARGENTINA IS FACING MUCH MORE THAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

be different factors influencing choice when the time comes directly or indirectly: to vote.

• The last measures adopted • Analysts show different by the National Government, views in relation to the role related to the modification of as the of the Income Tax and a acting President. Ranked as range of announcements as one of the political figures regards safety within the with the greatest negative Province of Buenos Aires. image in the country, some “The majority thinks that specialists consider that the the surgical operation, • According to what the image of the Vice President pollsters agree, there has will damage the government due to a chronic subdural been some improvement in authorities in their electoral accumulation, the President Cristina Kirchner’s campaign, while others think President had to undergo image in the months after that the public opinion will the PASO despite the observe this process quite would not necessarily be unfavorable results for naturally, without negative translated into votes” the governing party. There repercussions on the are people who argue that electoral dynamics. the ’s strategy consisting in separating the • The reduction in the Argentinian President from gap between Massa and the electoral campaign bore Insaurralde could also be its fruit, since the polls based on the increase of confirm some independence the number of undecided between the performance of voters. Last polls stand Frente para la Victoria and out an increase of the the presidential popularity. percentage of people who have not made a decision • The health problem regarding whom to vote. the President Cristina It is estimated that as we Fernández de Kirchner is approach the date of the going through in the middle elections this number will of the electoral process. tend to decrease, because While there is a consensus it is expected that the among the analysts with opposition vote will align regard to the institutional with the “useful vote”, as seriousness of the matter, well as a more intensive the majority thinks that campaign from the the surgical operation, governing party. due to a chronic subdural accumulation, the President had to undergo would not 2. AFTER THE ELECTORAL necessarily be translated BATTLE into votes, considering that 95% of the respondents Beyond the election itself, would not change their what this new electoral process

3 ARGENTINA IS FACING MUCH MORE THAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

questions is how the political Mendoza, , and on future in Argentina will be, in the other hand, the progressive the view of the presidential conservative forces gathered elections in 2015. around , current Chief of Government of the If the results of August 11th Autonomous City of Buenos recur, the project “eternal Aires. The characteristic Cristina”, which was being cyclothymia of Argentinian boosted by some sectors of the politics could even appear Frente para la Victoria, will causing the latter to formalize “There are people that find a non-extendable deadline: some alliance with any of the argue that the successor December 10th, 2015. Even more two variables of the traditional after the last events in relation . will emerge from within with the President’s health that the Justicialism itself in represents an additional sign to Behind closed doors the any of its forms” an end of political cycle that Justicialist Party does not see a was coming anyway. “K” candidacy with capacity of success likely to be developed. Against this new context a Only the Governor of the Province succession period that in a, of Buenos Aires, , loud or in a low voice, criticizes could lead it but he is strongly the governmental strategy fought from the very inside of developed so far, is beginning. the “cristinism”. Daniel Scioli There are people that argue that can only rely on the central core the successor will emerge from of the Justicialist Party —which within the Justicialism itself in is trying to resurrect these any of its forms: kirchnerists or days―. However, it is highly traditional justicialism from the probable that the rest of his Justicialist Party of Buenos Aires peers impose certain conditions predominance or Justicialist and try to move him, essentially, Party of federal predominance. away from the “K purity“.

However, other forces are also Everything seems to point out part of the fight for who is that there may be internal going to get the “Rivadavia’s elections in the Justicialist Seat” once Cristina Fernández Party and Scioli may compete de Kirchner leaves the power. with a federal leader. The On the one hand, the forces Governor of San Juan, Gioja, of the moderate left around was the best-ranked candidate the Partido Socialista / Unión but the accident he suffered Cívica Radical gathered by recently, when the helicopter the former Governor of the transporting him collapsed, Province of Santa Fe, Hermes creates a great expectation Binner, the former Vice about his capacity of keeping President of the Nation, Julio this leadership. Although it Cobos, or the current National is too early, Gioja’s situation Senator for the Province of creates opportunities for other

4 ARGENTINA IS FACING MUCH MORE THAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

’s figures such as Juan of the one developed so far by Manuel De la Sota (Governor of the succession of K governments, the Province of Córdoba), Juan first with Néstor Kirchner and Manuel Urtubey (Governor of afterwards with Cristina Fer-nández the Province of ), Sergio de Kirchner. Each of them will face Urribarri (Governor of the the challenge of developing non- Province of Entre Ríos) or Jorge populist future strategies, dealing Capitanich (Governor of the with complicated problems such Province of Chaco). as the energetic and financial collapse the country is facing. As “In any case, the coming On the other hand, within the well as considering that the social leaderships will need a very Justicialist Party, the and governability crisis that is now nowadays candidate for the beginning does not leave any margin totally different view of National Chamber of Deputies to, on the one hand, continue with the one developed so far of the Frente Renovador, Sergio the design of distribution policies by the succession of K Massa, will try to be elected but without genuine investment that he should participate in intern generates new wealth and, on governments, first with elections against one of the the other hand, with the populist Néstor Kirchner and federal candidates. However, it subsidies that funded the survival afterwards with Cristina is probable that his party’s peers of the political power in the Fer-nández de Kirchner” send him to the candidacy for the last five years rather than the Government of the Province of encouragement of willingness for Buenos Aires. In that case, he will personal development of those who probably seek support among the received resources from the State. most progressive conservatives and will make up his candidacy For all that has been said, outside the Justicialist Party. next Sunday, October 27th, Argentina will elect much more than senators or deputies; this 3. CONCLUSION weekend the Argentinians’ vote will decide how the actors of a In any case, the coming leaderships new national political scenario will need a totally different view will be ordered.

5 ARGENTINA IS FACING MUCH MORE THAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Authors

Enrique Morad is Chairman Director of LLORENTE & CUENCA in the Southern Cone. Before working for the consultant, he was Corporative Director for Loma Negra SAIC, leader cement company in Argentina and also was a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Boston for nearly 15 years, among other companies. He was Chairman of Foundations and Corporations as well. Enrique is a lawyer and founding member of the Association Dircom Argentina.

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Verónica Lara is Director of Public Affairs of LLORENTE & CUENCA Argentina. She worked as Government Relations Manager in Burson Marsteller and was the spokesperson for the Minister of Economy of Argentina, Hernán Lorenzino. Verónica has a degree in Public Relations, completed her postgraduate studies in Argentina and finished her Master’s Degree in Public Communication and Political Institutions at the Complutense University of Madrid.

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