COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. ANNUAL SHAREHOLDERS MEETING April 17, 2019
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innovating for the future COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. ANNUAL SHAREHOLDERS MEETING April 17, 2019 John Kemper President and Chief Executive Officer CAUTIONARY STATEMENT A number of statements we will be making in our presentation and in the accompanying slides are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements of the Corporation’s plans, goals, objectives, expectations, projections, estimates and intentions. These forward- looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on various factors (some of which are beyond the Corporation’s control). Factors that could cause the Corporation’s actual results to differ materially from such forward- looking statements made herein or by management of the Corporation are set forth in the Corporation’s 2018 Report on Form 10-K and the Corporation’s Current Reports on Form 8-K. 2 2 TODAY’S DISCUSSION ABOUT COMMERCE BANCSHARES ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY THEMES OUR STRATEGIC POSITION OUR PERFORMANCE AND PEER COMPARISONS 3 ABOUT COMMERCE $25.5 153 BANCSHARES BILLION IN YEARS IN BUSINESS ASSETS 42ND $20.3 LARGEST U.S. BANK BILLION IN TOTAL DEPOSITS 6 BASED ON ASSET SIZE1 4 5 5 1 9 2 4 1 6 $14.2 3 2 $6.3 7 BILLION IN TOTAL LOANS 8 BILLION MARKET CAPITALIZATION 3 7 TH $8.8 20 BILLION IN COMMERCIAL ⚫ LARGEST U.S. BANK NINE KEY MARKETS BASED ON MARKET CARD VOLUME 1. St. Louis ⚫ CAPITALIZATION1 2. Kansas City COMMERCIAL OFFICES 3. Springfield 1. Cincinnati 4. Central Missouri 2. Nashville 16.2% 5. Central Illinois 3. Dallas 4. Des Moines $50 RETURN ON AVERAGE 6. Wichita 7. Tulsa 5. Indianapolis BILLION IN TRUST COMMON EQUITY 8. Oklahoma City 6. Grand Rapids ASSETS 9. Denver 7. Houston RD ◼ TH 3 Branch footprint 18 ROACE FOR THE TOP 50 ◼ Extended Commercial Market Area LARGEST AMONG U.S. BANK- ◼◼◼ Commercial Payments Services offered in 48 states OWNED TRUST COMPANIES U.S. BANKS BASED ON 1 1 Source: 1S&P Global Market Intelligence; does not include trust or specialty finance banks; BASED ON AUM ASSET SIZE 4 company reports and filings as of 12/31/2018 4 SUPER-COMMUNITY BANK PLATFORM A consistent strategy with a long-term view Community Bank Customer relationship-based: Super-Regional Bank ® “CHALLENGE ACCEPTED. ” • • Award winning Sophisticated customer service High performing teams and payment system • engaged workforce capabilities Focus on the full • client relationship Broad consumer Long history of top quartile product offerings • Core values credit quality metrics • Private Banking; embraced by Trust; Capital Markets team members Investment in distinctive, • • high-return businesses Shareholder driven Quickly adapt to and strong financial customer needs performance and changing Focus on operational efficiencies • preferences Competitive on unit Disciplined approach to acquisitions costs 5 5 A FOCUS ON CUSTOMERS Flexible solutions help Improving cash flow Claims payments, your way a non-profit grow and the patient experience Shelter Insurance Parents as Teachers Nebraska Medicine Columbia, MO St. Louis, MO Omaha, NE 6 A FOCUS ON CUSTOMERS Customized health services A better approach to financing connects with patients Delivering solutions for growth funding senior living Hackensack University Medical Center Precision, Inc. Avanti Senior Living Hackensack, NJ Pella, IA Houston, TX 7 7 A STRONG EMPHASIS ON CULTURE Giving 2018 Employee Engagement1 to our VALUES 78% • Engaged, long-term 75% We have a leadership team 74% long term We • iew Focus on people and collaborate talent development as ne Commerce U.S. High U.S. Financial • Deep knowledge of Performance Norm Services Norm We act with team customers and markets • In 2018, the Commerce Bancshares ntegrity • Collaboration drives sales Foundation made more than 700 grants We are across business lines and payments over $1.7 million ustomer • Focus on EPS growth • Rated “outstanding” from the Federal We strive focused • Reserve for community reinvestment for for Investing in the more than 20 years xcellence communities in which • Team members deeply engaged in the we operate communities we serve OUR CULTURE IS OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 1The Korn Ferry Hay Group – 2018 survey results 8 RECENT RECOGNITION • Named among • Selected as one of 20 • Received Highly • Named a Top Midsize • Named among America’s Best Banks best-in-class banks Commended status Employer by Forbes Forbes’ first-ever 2019 by Forbes in Bank Director’s 2019 for Best Private Wealth for the second ranking of Best • RankingBanking study Manager in client consecutive year Employers for Top-ranked Missouri- services with assets based bank • Placed #3 overall in • Ranked in the top 15 Women over $5 billion • • th the Midwest percent, #68 out of Ranked in the Top 10 Ranked 17 in the • PAM Awards recognize • Ranked #1 in in the 500 with 1,000-5,000 for Banking and nation overall top investment Midwest for: employees Financial Services • Since the first list professionals, wealth • Placed 7th among all companies and debuted, Commerce – Best Branch advisors, legal firms, banking and financial among the Top 5 has consistently Network Strategy consultants and other services companies employers ranked near the top key service providers – Best Core Deposit and 4th among headquartered in among the highest- operating within the Growth Strategy employers Missouri performing institutions private asset – Best Retail Strategy management industry headquartered in Missouri • Forbes named Commerce one of the World’s Best Banks for 2019 • Ranked 2nd among all Missouri-based banks on the list • Forbes’ first-ever list based largely on customer satisfaction 9 TODAY’S DISCUSSION ABOUT COMMERCE BANCSHARES ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY THEMES OUR STRATEGIC POSITION OUR PERFORMANCE AND PEER COMPARISONS 10 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Economic growth expected to be approximately 2% Some key drivers to this growth: • Increasing employment levels that translate into a rise in personal income and steady consumer spending • No acceleration in inflation • Corporate profits, although leveling off, still spurring reinvestment in productive capital equipment and software • A positive tailwind from low energy prices and long-term interest rates • A Federal Reserve that is on hold U.S.U.S. RealReal GDPGDP Employment 9.0%3.5% 10-year Average "Sustainable""Sustainable" Trend Trend Growth Growth YY--OO--YY (left(left axis) axis) 350600 3%3% 10-year Average "Sustainable" Trend Growth Y-O-Y (left axis) 3 Month Change (right axis) Monthly Increase (left axis) 8.0% 500 2% 7.0% 300400 6.0%3.0% 300 1% 2% 5.0% 250200 (%) Change Month 3 5.0% 0% 4.0% 100 2.5% 3.0% 2000 -1% -100 1% 2.0% -2% -200150 2.0%1.0% -300 -3% 0.0% -400100 -1.0% -4%0% Number of jobs created of jobs Number -500 -2.0%1.5% -60050 -5% -3.0% 3 Month Change (right axis) -700 -4.0% Monthly Increase (left axis) -6% -8000 -1% -5.0%1.0% 19741Q 19782Q 19823Q 19864Q 19901Q 19942Q 3Q1998 4Q2002 1Q2006 2Q2010 3Q2014 4Q2018 -900 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q -7% 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Sources: Commerce Trust Company, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg 11 INDUSTRY THEMES • After years of the regulatory backdrop being cumbersome, some rollback is likely Regulatory • As the backdrop continues to evolve, net impact expected to be positive reform • Heightened scrutiny on biggest banks expected as democrats take House control Accounting • With expected implementation in Jan. 2020, CECL will require a capital change changes • Leasing accounting changes expected while DIF surcharge ceased in 4Q • Meaningful advancements on multiple fronts – mobile, digitization, artificial Technology intelligence, blockchain Competitive • Big banks are getting bigger and leveraging economies of scale advantages landscape • Competition from non-depository financials appears to be intensifying Sources: Barclays Research, Commerce Trust Company 12 INDUSTRY THEMES • Banks are optimizing distribution models to align with evolving customer Retail behavior distribution • Expect branches to continue to decline, driving efficiency ratio improvement • U.S. bank consolidation viewed as indefinite trend Consolidation • Number of U.S. banks halved in the past 20 years; expected to halve again • Recessions happen every five years on average, financial crises are every 25 Macro or so concerns • Ongoing trade discussions with China, domestic political environment and growing national debt give investors concern globally • P/Es have come under pressure of late, despite upward EPS revisions Valuation • The bigger you are, the lower your multiple, though the gap has narrowed Sources: Barclays Research, Commerce Trust Company 13 TODAY’S DISCUSSION ABOUT COMMERCE BANCSHARES ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY THEMES OUR STRATEGIC POSITION OUR PERFORMANCE AND PEER COMPARISONS 14 STRATEGIC POSTURE: MAINTAINING THE BALANCE STRONG PERFORMANCE with Disciplined focus on PRIORITY ongoing refinement of the BLUE CHIP investments “Core Bank” • Develop Claims Payment • Super-Community Bank platform • Commerce Bank Mortgage • Relationship-based banking • Accelerate Growth in Healthcare • High-touch customer service • Enhance Consumer Digital • Full suite of product and service • Accelerate Expansion Market offerings Growth • • Disciplined attention to risk return Enhance the Private Client Model • • Divest in businesses & activities Retain and Grow Mass Affluent that no longer provide Households acceptable