Welcome to Norway the World’s EV capital Program
• Introduction Petter Haugneland, Norwegian EV Association • Perspectives on Norway’s Supercharged Electric Vehicle Policy Erik Figenbaum, Institute of transport economics • Carrot and whip – How does Norway do it? Sveinung Kvalø, Cowi • The bumpy road towards better charging infrastructure Erik Lorentzen, Norwegian EV Association • How did the car dealers cope, and who are the customers? Anita Svanes, Volkswagen and Marina Maneas Bakkum, Nissan • Electric London Taxis in Oslo? Phil Henrick, LEVC, formerly known as the London Taxi Company • TU TALK; live podcast Jan Moberg, CEO, Teknisk Ukeblad Media and Odd Richard Valmot, Journalist, Teknisk Ukeblad Media Norwegian market shares BEVs and PHEVs
25% 21% 20%
15% 18%
10%
5%
Europe 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BEV PHEV Source: OFV Top selling BEV models 2017
VW e-Golf BMW i3 Tesla Model X Tesla Model S Nissan LEAF Renault ZOE Hyundai IONIQ Mercedes-Benz B-Klasse Opel Ampera-e VW e-Up Kia Soul
- 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000
Source: Ofv.no Over 200,000 EVs in Norway!
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
- 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 BEV PHEV
Source: OFV and NPRA Norway’s 2025-goal
• National Transport Plan for 2018–2029:
“The Government has established targets for new zero-emission vehicles. All new passenger cars and light vans sold in 2025 shall be zero-emission vehicles. All new urban buses sold in 2025 shall be zero emitters or use biogas”. Erik Figenbaum
Institute of transport economics
Perspectives on Norway’s Supercharged Electric Vehicle Policy Perspectives on Norway’s supercharged electric vehicle policy
Nordic EV Summit Oslo/Himkok 31.01.2018
Erik Figenbaum, Chief Research Engineer Institute of Transport Economics, Norway Market shares by technology
Fleet at end of 2017 139 474 (5.1%) BEVs 67 577 (2.5%) PHEVs
Page Multi-level perspective (Geels)– Theoretical concept
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE Landscapes
Disturbances/Pressure
REGIME New technology
Regime regime
Window of opportunity
NICHE MARKETS Niches
Time
Page A multi-level perspective on BEVs in Norway
Global autoindustry, climate policies, oil industry, GLOBAL energy prices, EU policies etc. LANDSCAPE
Policies, incentives Landscapes NATIONAL Control of which vehicles are attractive to import/sell/buy GOVERNANCE
ICEV REGIME
Established actors (importers, dealers etc. and driving practices REGIME Regime
New actors developing and testing new NICHE
technologies/practices MARKETS Niches Time
Page A multi-level perspective on BEVs in Norway
Upstarts develop BEVs Autoindustry BEVs for ZEV Ni-Cd battery French BEVs GLOBAL Switzerland Solar cars LANDSCAPE California ZEV mandate Ford US need BEV Toll road exemption VAT Landscapes Registration tax exemp NATIONAL exemption Free parking -tion GOVERNANCE
ICEV REGIME REGIME Regime
Think Ford buy Kewet imports bankrupt Think. BEV NICHE Think/Pivco industrialization production start MARKETS First BEV Fleet users imported Testing, industrial development,
Niches reduce local pollution Toll road users 1990 1995 2000 Time 100 BEVs 500 BEVs
Source: Adapted from: Figenbaum, E. Perspectives on Norway’s supercharged electric vehicle policy, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17. nov. 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.11.002 Page A multi-level perspective on BEVs in Norway
California ZEV Climate policy Financial mandate relaxed GLOBAL focus crisis, BEV LANDSCAPE Other countries funding abandon BEVS Reduced Climate price ferries
Landscapes Bus-lane National policy NATIONAL test Oslo bus-lane focus Chargers area access support GOVERNANCE
ICEV REGIME
Regime REGIME
Ford/ Ford Think Kewet Think restart Think Think BEV sell bankrupt prod. 2. gen production Think NICHE Second hand import MARKETS Fleet users Buslane users
Niches Toll road users 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Time 600 BEVs 1100 BEVs 1300 BEVs 1900 BEVs 2800 BEVs
Source: Adapted from: Figenbaum, E. Perspectives on Norway’s supercharged electric vehicle policy, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17. nov. 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.11.002Page A multi-level perspective on BEVs in Norway
Nissan Global BEV focus BEVs from Leaf Kia, Hyundai, Longer BEVs from Mercedes range GLOBAL Mitsubishi VW, BMW Tesla Tesla BEVs LANDSCAPE Peugeot, Renault Model-S super- Citroën ZOE chargers
Fast charger corridors, Enova Landscapes NATIONAL Fast chargers Transnova GOVERNANCE
ICEV More More Emerging First BEVs Importers Importers BEV regime imported REGIME REGIME
Regime sell BEVs sell BEVs
BEV/ICEV Single vehicle/BEV only cost parity households Multi vehicle households NICHE MARKETS Fleets Buslane users Niches Toll road users 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 Time 5400 BEVs 20000 BEVs 69000 BEVs 140000 BEVs
Source: Adapted from: Figenbaum, E. Perspectives on Norway’s supercharged electric vehicle policy, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17. nov. 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.11.002 Page A multi-level perspective on BEVs in Norway
GLOBAL LANDSCAPE Developed enabling technologies+vehicles
NATIONAL GOVERNANCE Landscapes Stable policies – Strong incentives.
NORWEGIAN ICEV REGIME ICEV-actors grabbing
Regime Weak, no vehicle production opportunity NICHE MARKETS Establishment
Bottom-up experimentation of mass market Niches 1990 2000 2005 2010TIME 2016 Time 27 year time span
Source: Adapted from: Figenbaum, E. Perspectives on Norway’s supercharged electric vehicle policy, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17. nov. 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.11.002Page Household ICEV ownership peaked in 2014
Page There was no master plan …….but it worked More information: [email protected] www.toi.no www.mozees.no
Page Sveinung Kvalø
Cowi
Carrot and whip – How does Norway do it? Norwegian EV policies
Sveinung André Kvalø Senior adviser e-mobility, COWI World leading market share for EVs
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
jul.09 jul.10 jul.11 jul.12 jul.13 jul.14 jul.15 jul.16 jul.17
jan.09 jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15 jan.16 jan.17
okt.09 okt.10 okt.11 okt.12 okt.13 okt.14 okt.15 okt.16 okt.17
apr.09 apr.10 apr.11 apr.12 apr.13 apr.14 apr.15 apr.16 apr.17 Zero emission Plug-in hybrid Tesla Model X 200 000 Hyundai IONIQ Mercedes Benz GLC BMW 3-series Audi Q7 150 000 BMW 7-series Volvo V60 Kia Optima Toyota Prius Mercedes Benz E Opel Ampera-e Opel Ampera /Chevrolet Bolt 100 000 /Chevrolet Volt Kewet (Buddy) VW e-Golf SmartForFour Renault Zoe BMW 5-series MINI Countryman Pivco (Think) BMW i8 Audi A3 Hyundai IONIQ 50 000 Mitsubishi I-Miev Volvo V90 Volvo XC60 Kia Niro Volvo S90 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mercedes Benz B Peugeot Ion SmartForTwo Zero registration tax Citroen C-Zero Volkswagen Golf Nissan Leaf Volkswagen Passat BMW X5 Zero toll Access to Tesla S BMW 2-series Free parking bus lanes BMW i3 Mercedes Benz C VW e-up! Volvo XC90 Zero VAT Ford Focus Sources: OFV, Elbil på norsk (2013) Mercedes Benz GLE Mitsubishi Outlander BMW i3 PHEV Mercedes Benz S POLICY DEVELOPMENT CARS FOR SALE The Registration Tax (or The Think Twice Tax)
Examples: Volkswagen Volkswagen Golf 1,2 TSI Volvo XC60 T6 Momentum R- e-Golf 115hp 110hp Comfortline design aut (3000 ccm, gasoline)
Price before taxes: 33 200 USD 24 000 USD 43 600 USD Registration tax: 0 USD 7 600 USD 73 800 USD Value added tax: 0 USD 6 000 USD 10 900 USD Price including taxes: 33 200 USD 37 600 USD 128 300 USD Type approval vs. actual emissions
CO₂-emissions, new cars (grams CO₂/km)
Norway
Source: Norwegian state budget 2018 Source: International Council on Clean Transportation A closer look at Volkswagen Golf's sales in Norway
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600 New sales per month per sales New 400
200
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15 jan.16 jan.17 Diesel Gasoline Plug-in hybrid Battery electric Thank you!
Sveinung André Kvalø Senior adviser e-mobility, COWI
[email protected] +47 991 12 001
COWINorge
cowinorge Erik Lorentzen
Norwegian EV Association The bumpy road towards better charging infrastructure The bumpy road towards better charging infrastructure
Erik Lorentzen, Head of Analysis and Consultancy Norwegian EV Association [email protected] www.elbil.no Normal Fast How often do you charge…
At fast charging stations At public charging stations At work At home (flat/shared garage) At home (detached)
Source: Norwegian EV owner survey 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100% Daily Weekly Monthly Never 2015: A national plan
• Public tenders for national fast charging network
• Every 50 km on main roads
• Finished by end of 2017 Challenges
• Access to charging at home
• Reliable equipment
• And…
Next step: Larger and faster
Photo: Line K. Bergsjøbrenden Pricing and payment systems • Handfull operators with different payment systems • Payment by RFID tags, SMS, mobile phone apps • EV Association distributes universal RFID tag to members • Pay per the minute Charging – to sum it up
• Home charging is the backbone
• Initial support crucial
• Volume means business
• Large scale next
elbil.no Photo: Geirangerfjorden Feriesenter as
Nordic EV Summit in Oslo
• 1. – 2. February 2018: www.nordicevs.no • Will the grid collapse? • Large scale fast charging • Smart charging systems in large charging networks Anita Svanes Marina Maneas Bakkum
Møller/Volkswagen Nissan Phil Henrick
LEVC, formerly known as the London Taxi Company
Electric London Taxis in Oslo? TU TALK; live podcast
Jan Moberg, CEO, Teknisk Ukeblad Media and Odd Richard Valmot, Journalist, Teknisk Ukeblad Media