Economic Development Services ~ Economic Impact Overview New Nuclear Powerplant

Mitchell Wilkie, MIM, SBCC, CMMIII Manager of Economic Development Services Major Presentation Points

• Project Scope – Assumptions? • County of Renfrew – Overview Maps • Economic Base – Major Sectors • Workforce Labour • Housing & Accommodation • Education • Community & Social Services • Municipal Finance • Municipal Zoning & Site Locations Project Scope? • New Nuclear Powerplant • ACR-1000 – 1,200 MWe • Designed for a 2016 in-service date • CANDU 6 - 700 MWe or Enhanced CANDU 6 - 740 MWe • 10 operating, 1 under construction • System Simulator for Testing & Training • Computer-based technologies • Design verification • Procedural development • Operator training • Nuclear Research & Industrial Park • Countywide Cluster • National – International Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Research & Development • Longer-term project “If two new CANDU reactors were constructed in Canada, the economic impact on the GDP is estimated to be CDN$2.6 billion over the period of construction, with a total employment of 40,000 person-years.” Economic Impact of the Nuclear Industry in Canada Canadian Energy Research Institute - July 2003

CANDU 3 "groundbreaking to in-service" estimated at 58 months, $530 million cost, and 6,220 person years of employment for Deep River.

1989 Keir & Muller Associates "Nuclear Power Generating Station Impact Analysis Study" Build Factors to Consider

• Small plant vs. large plant. • Large plants require huge commitment in funds and resources. • Several economic cycles during build; difficult for budgeting & cost control. • Regional & export development for ACR- 1000 (proximity to Ottawa) should be part of the solution. • Nuclear technology is an important part of economy; it shouldn’t be justified on a dollars per MW cost basis. Local Economy, Employment & Income

Construction Phase • Payroll – project workforce and management. • Secondary Payroll – secondary jobs. • Direct project expenditures for material and equipment.

Operations Phase • Payroll & 2-years of commissioning & training. • Secondary Annual Payroll. • Annual Project Expenditures ongoing for supplies & services. • Manufacture & Design of project components. County of Renfrew

Deux Rivieres OTTAWA

TORONTO Deep River

Chalk River in nqu Algo Pembroke 17 Park Municipalities Cobden Killaloe Barry’s Bay Eganville Renfrew

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Hardwood Lake Calabogie Bristol -Bristol 1 Arnprior - 2 White LakeWhite - 1 Portage-du-Fort- 2 Renfrew - 6 Foresters Falls - Falls Foresters 3 Haley Station - 4 Beachburg - 10 Westmeath - Westmeath 11 Cobden - 26 Douglas - 4 Waltham - 4 Pembroke -Pembroke 554 Chapeau - 16 Golden Lake - 7 Eganville - 17

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C Community Petawawa - 247 Deep- River 789 Killaloe -Killaloe 18 Chalk River - River Chalk 167 - Bay Barry's 1 Combermere - 2 Rolphton - 2 Mackey -Mackey 4 Round Lake Centre - Centre Lake Round 2 AECL Employees are Part Employees ofAECL the Stonecliffe - 2 Algonquin Provincial Park Provincial Algonquin CFO GIS Services GIS CFO employeesinclude 55 not (doesanother 2005 Counties Pontiac outsideRenfrew and living Economic Base

BR&E Survey (2004) StatsCan Data (1996-2001) Renfrew Population Growth 1996-2001

2006 Population 97,545 Killaloe, Hagerty & 2001 Population 95,138 Richards Ontario 2001 – 2006 Change 2.5% McNab/Braeside North Algona Wilberforce Deep River 2% Hor ton 1.4% Madawaska Valley Arnprior Head, Clara & Maria 0% Admaston/Bromley Petawawa 1.8% Pembroke 3.3% StatsCan Laurentian Hills Town of Renfrew Brudenell, Lyndoch & Raglan Pem broke Petawawa Percentage Deep River Head, Clara & Maria

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Workforce Labour

• Average 1 employee per MWe of installed capacity (5-10% uncertainty). • CANDU-6 design “Point Lepreau, NB” rated at 635 Mwe - ≈ 650 employees. • ACR-1000 produces 1000 to 1200 MWe • CANDU-6 is produces 600 to 750 MWe • 1,700 – 2,300 temporary persons during construction stage. Our skilled trade workforce is about 3,140 (StatsCan 2001). • 300 – 600 immigrating persons for ongoing operations. 48,880 Total Labour Force Higher % people with skilled trades than national average

Includes 3,140 (6%) Skilled & Construction Tradespersons

2001 StatsCan 48,880 Total Labour Force

Includes 3,140 (6%) Skilled & Construction Tradespersons

2001 StatsCan Top 16 Major Employers

COMPANY LOCATION PRODUCT/SERVICE 1000-7500 Employees CFB Petawawa Petawawa Military AECL Chalk River Nuclear Research & Development RC District School Board Pembroke Education Pembroke Hospital Pembroke Health Care 300-1000 Employees County of Renfrew Pembroke Municipal Government OLS Pembroke Call Centre Renfrew Hospital Renfrew Health Care KI Pembroke Pembroke Office Equipment Manufacturer Magellan Aerospace Haley Station High Pressure Diecasting Arnprior Aerospace Arnprior Aviation Manufacturing 150-300 Employees Teletech Renfrew Call Centre Nylene Canada Arnprior Resin & Fibre Manufacturing Murray Bros. Lumber Co Madawaska Twp. Lumber Scapa Tapes Renfrew Adhesive Tape Manufacturing Sandvik Materials Tech. Arnprior Metal Fabrication Paramed Pembroke Infant & Child Care Immigration Needs for Skilled Trades

• Canada: aging population & declining birthrates. • 1976 – Immigration 20% of net population growth. • Today – Immigration 70% of net population growth. • 2009: short one million skilled workers. • 2011: labour force totally dependent on immigration. • 2026: Canada’s population growth totally dependent on immigration. Deaths will outnumber births. • Rural Canada: < 20% of the population. • 1980s Annual Average Immigration – 125,000/year • 1990s Annual Average Immigration – 220,000/year • 2010s Annual Average Immigration – 325,000/year • Canada’s population 32,880,470 (April 2007) • Citizenship & Immigration policy will continue to increase immigration levels to 1% of population, while considering our absorptive capacity. Housing & Accommodation

• Existing housing stock might accommodate 1/4-1/3 of peak (800-1,200) in-bound construction workers. • Division of housing amongst Deep River, Laurentian Hills, Head Clara & Maria, Petawawa, & Pembroke. • Greatest demand will be rental housing. • Project proponent or independent developer would supply housing (i.e. trailer parks, apartment bldg.). • New housing developments tied to absorption levels to avoid oversupply – 120-250 permanent units during construction phase & temporary housing for balance of demand. • Produces near zero vacancy rate & rising accommodation costs affecting permanent residents (relocations, new household formations). Housing & Accommodation

# of SUBDIVISION LOTS # of SUBDIVISION LOTS # of SUBDIVISION LOTS FINAL APPROVAL DRAFT APPROVAL PROPOSED in RECENT SINCE 1988 SINCE 1988 APPLICATIONS but not yet Final Approval (2005 on) LAURENTIAN HILLS 0 17 0

DEEP RIVER 53 29 99

PETAWAWA 100 192 99

LAURENTIAN VALLEY 55 73 124

TOTAL 208 311 322 Boards of Education

Renfrew County District School Board • Excess capacity: 5,367 • Equivalent to 200 surplus classrooms. Renfrew County Catholic District School Board • Excess capacity: unknown - no response received. Conseil des écoles publiques de l'Est de l'Ontario • École élémentaire et secondaire publique L’Équinoxe. • Currently, 242 excess capacity. 650 excess capacity in new school (former Laurentian Public School). Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est • Centre scolaire catholique Jeanne-Lajoie. • No excess capacity. Currently using 3 portable classrooms. Further expansion plans in 2-years. Education Costs & Service

• Expenditures will increase with enrolment. • Offset by provincial grants & increased assessment produced by additional residences and spin-off business growth. • School taxes per household not significantly affected. • Marginal increase in service levels possible. • Potential for wider range of program offerings. • During operating phase – only a marginal student increase. Renfrew School Age Projections 2004-2030 30,000

25,000

20,000

15-19 15,000 10-14 5-9 0-4

10,000

5,000

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04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Renfrew School Enrolment Projections 2003-2013

3,000

2,500 Renfrew 2,000 Petawawa Pembroke 1,500 Opeongo Madawaska 1,000 Deep River Arnprior 500

0

09 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 Community & Social Services

• In-migrating population during construction & during operations not expected to strain service capacity of community & social services agencies and emergency services. • Potential need of additional staff or equipment for municipal fire department to help protect Nuclear Power Plant. • Leisure and recreation services are more than adequate. Municipal Finance

• PIL (Payment in Lieu) of taxes. • The Power Corporation Act sets procedure for calculation & distribution of PIL by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). • Property subject to value assessment & municipal-set mill rate. • Annual PIL paid will typically be lower than normal municipal tax calculated total. • Maximum payment made will not exceed 50% of the total taxes raised by the municipality. • County of Renfrew receives share of PIL. • PIL of education taxes retained by lower-tier municipality. Additional revenue should lower mill rate & reduce taxes on individual properties. Municipal Finance Additional Municipal Revenue • Potential building permit fee revenue for lower-tier municipality (more than cover inspection costs) if Federal government will pay them. • Potential for “Community Impact Grants” by OPG. • Increased tax revenue with additional residences and new spin-off businesses established. Additional Municipal Expenditure • Site & infrastructure servicing recovered through additional assessment & potential grants. • Influx and settlement of workers – support. • Marginal affect on sewer, water, recreation, libraries, fire & police. • County PIL not expected to significantly impact expenditures. Municipal Zoning Municipal Zoning – Rolphton Site

Civic Address: 36510 Highway 17 Pt Lots 41-44, Range A Pt Lots 41-45, Range B Pt Town Lot Reserve Pt Rd Allowance Geographic Township of Rolph Town of Laurentian Hills • Official Plan: Crown Land; Sect 5.12 applies • Zoning By-law 11-05 • Rural (RU) Zone (Pt Lots 41-45, Range B only) • No Zoning on remainder of subject lands • Sect. 5.12 applies to lands zoned RU. Approximate AECL Rolphton Site from Google Earth Rolphton Site Location Zoning Section of OfficialOP Plan

part of AECL land “Crown Lands” Municipal Zoning – AECL Site

Control Plant Site Pt Lots 6-9, Conc 13 Pt Lots 6-10, Conc 12 Pt Lots 5-13, Conc 11 Pt Lots 6-15, Conc 10 Pt Lots 6-16, Concs 8 & 9 Pt Lots 19-39, Ranges A & B Geographic Township of Buchanan Town of Deep River • Official Plan: not designated • Zoning By-law 24-96 • Not zoned Approximate AECL Site from Google Earth AECL Site Location Section of Official Plan Thank you!

Mitchell Wilkie, MIM, SBCC, CMMIII Manager of Economic Development Services

[email protected] PH: 613.735.0091