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Moss Landing Community Moss Landing Community Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Report Photo: Don Debold JUNE 2017 CENTRAL COAST WETLANDS GROUP MOSS LANDING MARINE LABS | 8272 MOSS LANDING RD, MOSS LANDING This page intentionally left blank Moss Landing Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Report Prepared by Central Coast Wetlands Group, Moss landing Marine Labs Technical assistance provided by ESA Revell Coastal The Nature Conservancy Center for Ocean Solutions Prepared for Monterey County and the Community of Moss Landing Funding Provided by The California Ocean Protection Council Grant number C0300700 Moss Landing Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Report i Primary Authors: Central Coast Wetlands group Ross Clark Sarah Stoner-Duncan Jason Adelaars Sierra Tobin Acknowledgements: California State Ocean Protection Council Abe Doherty Paige Berube Nick Sadrpour Monterey County Martin Carver Jacqueline Onciano Coastal Conservation and Research Jim Oakden Kamille Hammerstrom Science Team David Revell, Revel Coastal Bob Batallio, ESA James Gregory, ESA James Jackson, ESA GIS Layer support AMBAG Monterey County Santa Cruz County Adapt Monterey Bay Kelly Leo, TNC Sarah Newkirk, TNC Eric Hartge, Center for Ocean Solutions Moss Landing Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Report ii This page intentionally left blank Moss Landing Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Report iii Contents Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................................... iv Summary of Findings ........................................................................................................................ vii 1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................1 1.1 Project Goals ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Study Area ..................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Community Profile ......................................................................................................................3 2.1 Local Setting and Climate .............................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Demographics ............................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Community Resources and Assets ................................................................................................ 5 2.4 Historical Events ............................................................................................................................ 7 2.5 Coastal Protection Infrastructure and Management .................................................................... 9 3. Projecting Impacts .................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Disclaimer: Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................... 13 3.2 Coastal Hazard Processes ............................................................................................................ 14 3.3 Scenario Selection and Hazards .................................................................................................. 16 3.4 Assumptions and Modifications to ESA Hazard models ............................................................. 18 3.5 Assets Used in Analysis ............................................................................................................... 18 4. Combined Impacts of Coastal Climate Change ........................................................................... 20 4.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 20 4.2 Existing Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................................ 20 4.3 Summary of Future Vulnerabilities by Planning Horizon ............................................................ 25 5. Vulnerability by Coastal Hazard................................................................................................. 30 5.1 Rising Tides .................................................................................................................................. 30 5.2 Coastal Storm Flooding and Wave Impacts ................................................................................ 35 5.3 Fluvial Impacts ............................................................................................................................ 40 5.4 Coastal Dune Erosion .................................................................................................................. 46 5.5 Future Risks of Specific Infrastructure ........................................................................................ 50 6. Economic Impacts of Future Climate Risks ................................................................................ 60 7. Adaptation ............................................................................................................................... 62 7.1 Adaptation Strategy Selection .................................................................................................... 62 Moss Landing Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Report iv Contents 7.2 Recommended Actions within Local Plans ................................................................................. 62 7.3 Strategies Discussed in Related Studies ...................................................................................... 63 7.4 Current Strategies Used within Moss Landing ............................................................................ 66 7.5 Moss Landing Climate Adaptation Strategy Options .................................................................. 66 8. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 74 References ....................................................................................................................................... 75 Appendix A ................................... Coastal Adapation Policy Assessment for Monterey Bay (COS, 2016) Appendix B .................. Climate Change Impacts to Combined Fluvial and Coastal Hazards. (ESA, 2016) List of Figures Figure 1. Moss Landing Study Area ............................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Moss Landing Neighborhoods ....................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3. Coastal armoring structures of various conditions along Moss Landing shoreline ..................... 10 Figure 4. Moss Landing Harbor levees ........................................................................................................ 11 Figure 5. Moss Landing Area water control infrastructure and bridges ..................................................... 11 Figure 6. SLR Scenarios Sea Level Rise scenarios for each time horizon ................................................... 16 Figure 7. Discharge Rate at Gabilan Creek and Salinas River in December 2014 ....................................... 21 Figure 8. Existing (2010) Flood Modeled Hazard Zone Compared to FEMA 100-Year Flood zone ............. 24 Figure 9. Hazard Zones for the combined effects of future coastal climate change .................................. 29 Figure 10. Rising Tides (Extreme Monthly High Water) Hazard Zones within Study Area ......................... 33 Figure 11. Buildings within the Community Plan Area vulnerable to Rising Tides) .................................... 34 Figure 12. Coastal Storm Flood Hazard Zones within Study Area ............................................................... 38 Figure 13. Buildings within the Community Plan Area vulnerable to Coastal Storm flooding ................... 39 Figure 14. Comparison of Modeled 100-year flow paths and observed flow paths, Dec 2014 flood ........ 41 Figure 15. Agriculture Impacted by Fluvial Flooding .................................................................................. 42 Figure 16. Reclamation Ditch Fluvial Flood Hazard Zones within the Study Area. ..................................... 44 Figure 17. Buildings within the Community Plan Area vulnerable to Fluvial Flooding ............................... 45 Figure 18. Dunes along the Moss Landing coast vulnerable to Coastal Erosion ........................................ 46 Figure 19. Buildings vulnerable to erosion within the Community Plan Area and Mon. Dunes Colony .... 49 Figure 20. Buildings vulnerable to by different coastal hazards at each planning horizon. ....................... 51 Figure 21. Farmland vulnerable to different coastal hazards at each planning horizon. ........................... 52 Figure 22. Locations of roadway vulnerable to coastal climate change hazards ....................................... 53 Figure 23. Feet of road vulnerable to different coastal hazards at each planning horizon. ....................... 55 Figure 24. Coastal access points vulnerable to different coastal hazards at each planning horizon. ........ 56 Figure
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