Jindal Steel and Power Ltd

BUY

Target Price ₹ 472 CMP ₹ 155 FY20E EV/EBITDA 4.0X

Index Details We believe that the steel industry is headed for a cyclical upturn Sensex 32,575 given that China has undertaken intiatives to cut excess capacities Nifty 10,114 citing environmental issues. Following this we have seen a rebound Industry Steel & Power in global steel prices. In too the government measures to check dumping have resulted in prices firming up. With prices set to rally Scrip Details there is always the threat of imports increasing, especially flat Mkt Cap(₹ cr) 14,160 products. However given the fact that JSPL is primarily into long BVPS (₹) 328.4 products it should remain unaffected. O/s Shares (Cr) 91.5 Av Vol (Lacs) 13.9 Post capex completion at Angul, we expect JSPL to near double its 52 Week H/L 62.6/158.3 revenues by FY20. This coupled with the fact that coal linkages with Div Yield (%) 0 have been firmed up for five years and the domestic iron FVPS (₹) 2 ore prices are quoting at lows, the steel business is expected to do well. The power business is also expected to perform well given that

Shareholding Pattern FSA & PPAs are in place. Further with the sale of its power asset Shareholders % Tamnar I (1,000 MW) already inked the company should be able to Promoters 61.9 leverage its gearing to a certain extent. Public 38.1 Total 100 We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 22.7% to Rs. 39,184 crores while EBITDA is expected to grow at a faster clip of 27% CAGR to Rs. 9,615 crores by FY20. Net earnings are expected to turn the corner in Jindal Steel & Power vs. Sensex FY18 and should scale to Rs.1,954 crores by FY20. We initiate with a 00000000000 BUY for a price target of Rs. 472 (target 7.0X FY20 EV/EBITDA) representing an upside of 204.5% from the CMP of Rs.155 over the 35000 200 30000 next 21 months. STOCKPOINTER 25000 150 20000 100 We are optimistic given that : 15000 10000 50  Completion of capex at Angul should enhance crude steelmaking 5000 0 0 capacity to 8.9 million tonnes from 6 million tonnes in FY17. Steel volumes are expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% to 8.4 million tonnes in FY20. On the back of improving realisations, revenues

SENSEX JSPL from the steel business are expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from Rs. 16,280 crores in FY17 to Rs. 31,574 crores by FY20. 0000000000000000000;/’;;. Key Financials (₹ in Cr) EPS Net RONW ROCE P/E EV/EBITDA Y/E Mar EBITDA PAT EPS Growth Sales (%) (%) (%) (x) (x)

2017 21051 4658 -2281 -24.93 NA -7.6 -3.8 NA 11.5

2018E 31415 7745 115 1.64 NA 0.4 0.3 119.9 6.3

2019E 37329 8991 1865 20.38 1508 6.4 2.6 7.5 4.6

2020E 39184 9615 1955 21.36 5 6.5 4.3 7.1 4.0

- 1 of 34 - Tuesday 1st August, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 With signing of PPAs & FSAS (barring Tamnar I) visibility of power business should improve. We expect overall PLF utilizations to improve to 70% by FY20 from the current 35%. In line with this revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% to Rs. 5,063 crores by FY20 from the current Rs. 3120 crores.

 JSPL skipped its debt repayment schedule in FY16 as it was cash strapped. To overcome this the company has inked an agreement to sell its 1,000 MW power generating asset (Tamnar I) to JSW energy for a consideration of Rs. 4,000 crores in FY19. This should help the company deleverage. Further improving business fundamentals should help lower debt gearing to 1.0X by FY20 from 1.3X reported in FY17. This compares very favourably with that of peers JSW and .

st - 2 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Company Background :

Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) has operations in India and overseas. JSPL’s business segments include Iron & Steel, Power and Others. JSPL’s steel division has a total capacity of 9.94 million tonnes of iron making capacity and 8.9 million tonne of crude steel capacity. It has a integrated steel plants at (3.4 MTPA), Angul (5 MTPA) & Oman (1.5 MTPA). Its Power Division (Jindal Power Ltd) has 3,400 MW power plant at Tamnar, . It is also backward integrated into mining with assets in Australia, Mozambique and South Africa.

Jindal Steel and Power Ltd

Steel business Power Business 8.9 million tonnes Mining 3400 MW Business

Tamnar-1 Raigarh Australia 2x250 MW 3 million tonnes Reserves : 175 MT 1000 MW Mining Capacity:2 MTPA

Tamnar-2 Angul 4x600 MW Mozambique & South 4.4 million tonnes Africa 2400 MW Reserves: 132 MT Mining Capacity : 3 MTPA

Oman 1.5 million tonnes

Captive Power 1700 MW

st - 3 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Steel manufacturing flowchart

Processing of Iron Ore into molten iron

Iron Ore 1.4 tonne

Sponge Iron   1 tonne      Thermal  Coal  1.6 tonne 

    Molten iron conversion into liquid steel   Liquid  Ferro Sponge steel  Chrome iron 1 0.84  20 kgs tonne  tonne     Continuous casting into finished steel products          TMT bars,  Liquid steel Billet Wire Rod,  1 tonne 1tonne Structural1  tonne   

 Source: Ventura Research        

st - 4 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Key Investment Highlights

 Revival of steel cycle augurs well for revenue growth

The period FY13-16 was a lean period on account of declining revenue from the steel business and erratic performance of the power vertical.

Steel business suffered from sluggish demand and poor pricing.

Since JSPL primarily manufactures long products it was insulated from dumping by Chinese and other international players. However, the sluggish demand for long products led to flat steel sales volume (around 4.4 MTPA in FY16), which resulted in the steel revenue’s degrowing at a CAGR of 3% from Rs.16,615 crores in FY13 to Rs. 14,525 crores in FY16. Due to pricing pressure, realization per tonne dropped sharply by 37% YoY to Rs. 32,787 per ton in FY16 from Rs. 45,047 per ton in FY15.

Steel business Recovery in sight

10 Better realisationand volume 50000 35000 35 In MTPA growth expected In Rs. Crores Green shoots 30000 30 8 40000 25000 25 6 30000 20000 20

4 20000 15000 15 10000 10 2 10000 5000 5 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Capacity Volumes Average realization per tonne Revenue EBIDTA margin

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Company, Ventura Research

Power business - erratic performance

Barring FY15 when the power business recorded its highest unit sales, the performance of this business has been rather erratic. As the company was concentrating on merchant sales, realizations were not as per anticipation given the weak demand for power.

st - 5 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Power Generation & Power Revenue (including Tamnar I ) 16000 14891 14891 In Million Units 7000 3.50 14000 12381 6000 In Rs. Crores 3.40 12000 10636 3.30 9542 9176 5000 10000 8281 3.20 7973 4000 8000 3.10 3000 6000 3.00 4000 2000 2.90 2000 1000 2.80 0 0 2.70 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Power Generation Revenue Gross Realization per unit

Source: Company, Ventura Research

Revenue share of JSPL’s business verticals

% share % Share % share FY13 FY16 FY20 3 2 5 16 19 15

81 79 81

Iron & Steel Power Mining

Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 6 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Steel Business - green shoots seen in FY17.

FY17 was the year of revival not only for the overall global steel cycle but also for the Indian steel industry and JSPL. This was on account of -

1. Sharp cut backs by China in its installed capacity citing environmental concerns.

2. Anti-dumping measures undertaken by major steel importers viz. India, US & Europe on Chinese dumping.

3. Decrease in domestic iron ore prices which have improved profitability.

4. Revival of Indian infrastructure given the measures taken by the Modi government.

5. Shrinking demand supply gap in the domestic market which has improved long term visibility.

6. Completion of capex at the Angul plant which augurs well for JSPL’s steel revenue growth. Long products in particular plates, rails & TMT bars which are the revenue spinners of JSPL have strong drivers in place.

7. Existing operations at Raigarh to function at full throttle from FY19.

8. Oman facility to produce value added products (TMT bars) from FY18.

st - 7 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

1. Sharp cut backs by China in its installed capacity citing environment concerns

The Chinese government in 2016 enacted the “13th Five Year Plan” with a blue print to reduce crude steel production capacity by 100-150 million tonnes by FY20-21. In 2016, The State Council & the National Development and Reform Commission in China issued a number of diktats to reduce 45 million tonnes of capacity. But provinces and municipalities determined targets for reducing 84.975 million tonnes of steel overcapacity in 2016-nearly twice of the original figure established by their Central Government. This sharp scale back in production should lead to a sharp reduction in global capacities.

Capacity cuts undertaken by Chinese provinces (Capacity in Million Tonnes)

Remaining steel targets for "13th Utilization Province Completed in 2016 production Five-Year Plan" Rate (%) capacity Hebei 49.1 16.4 32.7 75.0 Shandong 15.0 2.7 12.3 83.3 Jiangsu 17.5 5.8 11.7 20.0 Xinjiang 7.0 0.9 6.1 72.9 Tianjin 9.0 3.7 5.3 0.0 Anhui 6.6 3.1 3.5 0.0

Gansu 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.0

Shaanxi 1.0 0.0 1.0 72.9 Yunnan 4.5 3.8 0.8 0.0 Central state owned 20.7 19.3 1.4 0.0 enterprises Total 133.5 57.1 76.4

Source: Greenpeace, Ventura Research Global Steel Supply & Demand dynamics

3000 Capacity adequate even after 85 MT capacity cut in China 2500

2000 Capacity adequate 1500 even after capacity cut back in China 1000

500

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

Global Capacity Global Demand

Source: World Steel Association, Ventura Research

st - 8 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Although the global capacity still far exceeds consumption, the low price steel supply cuts by China will elevate marginal pressures and lend to buoyancy in steel prices.

Chinese finished steel prices revival augurs well for global industry

China TMT Rebar YoY China TMT Rebar MoM

550 (USD/MT) 480 (USD/MT) 500 460

450 440

400 420

350 400

300 380

250 360 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research China Billet YoY China Billet MoM

550 (USD/MT) 480 (USD/MT) 470 500 460 450 450 440 400 430 420 350 410 300 400 390 250 380 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

China Sections YoY China Sections MoM

650 550 (USD/MT) (USD/MT) 600 530 510 550 490 500 470 450 450 400 430 410 350 390 300 370 250 350 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

st - 9 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

China HR Plate YoY China HR Plate MoM

600 (USD/MT) 500 (USD/MT) 490 550 480 500 470 450 460 450 400 440 350 430 420 300 410 250 400 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

Hot Rolled Coil China YoY Hot Rolled Coil China MoM

550 550 (USD/MT) (USD/MT) 500

450

400 450

350

300

250 350 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

Cold Rolled Coil China YoY Cold Rolled Coil China MoM

650 (USD/MT) 600 (USD/MT) 580 600 560 540 550 520 500 500 480 450 460 440 400 420 350 400 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

st - 10 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Coking coal Australia YoY Coking coal Australia MoM

180 (USD/MT) 240 (USD/MT) 160 220

140 200 180 120 160 100 140 80 120

60 100 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

Coking coal USA YoY Coking coal USA MoM

200 (USD/MT) 245 (USD/MT) 180 225 160 205 140 185

120 165

100 145

80 125 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

st - 11 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Domestic Price Trends

Iron Ore Fines YoY Iron Ore Fines MoM

2500 1450 (Rs./MT) (Rs./MT) 1400 2100 1350 1300 1700 1250 1200 1300 1150 900 1100 1050 500 1000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

Hot Rolled Coil YoY Hot Rolled Coil MoM (Rs/MT) 45000 (Rs./MT) 45000

40000

35000

35000

25000 30000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

HR Plate YoY HR Plate MoM

37500 (Rs./MT) 40000 (Rs./MT) 39000 38000 37000 36000 35000 34000 27500 33000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

st - 12 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Cold Rolled Coil YoY Cold Rolled Coil MoM 60000 (Rs./MT) 60000 (Rs./MT) 50000

40000

40000 30000

20000

10000

20000 0

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

Billet Price YoY Billet Price MoM

35000 29000 (Rs/MT) (Rs/MT)

30000 28000 27000 25000 26000 20000 25000

15000 24000

10000 23000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

Structural’s Mumbai YoY Structural’s Mumbai MoM

40000 35000 (Rs./MT) (Rs./MT) 34000 35000 33000

30000 32000

31000 25000 30000

20000 29000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

st - 13 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Raipur Wire Rod 5.5 MM YoY Raipur Wire Rod 5.5 MM MoM

40000 33000 (Rs./MT) (Rs./MT) 32000 35000 31000

30000 30000

29000 25000 28000

20000 27000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

TMT Bar YoY TMT Bar MoM

60000 36500 (Rs./MT) (Rs./MT) 36000 50000 35500 35000 40000 34500 34000 30000 33500 33000 20000 32500 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

st - 14 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

2. Anti-dumping measures undertaken by major steel importers India, US & Europe on Chinese dumping

Government of India was expeditious to act against the deteriorating steel industry by implementing a series of measures such as (a) higher import duty of 12.5% vs. 10% on HRC imports (b) safeguard duty (c) minimum import price (MIP) (d) anti-dumping duty.

Currently, there is a safeguard duty at 15% on HRC imports (14 March 2017- 13 September 2017), which will fall to 10% (14 September 2017- 13 March 2018) and nil thereafter. Safeguard duty is applicable to China, Ukraine and all developed countries including Japan, South Korea and Europe. MIP (HRC import price was US$445/t) has been replaced with anti-dumping duty (reference price for imports is US$489/t).

Landed cost of import of CFR HRC on 12th July, 2017

US$ per MT

HRC prices, CFR mumbai 495.0 CFR + BCD (@12.5%) 556.9

Safeguard duty @ 10% on CFR 74.3

Not applicable as CIF prices is

Anti Dumping duty greater than references prices of US$ 489/MT Port handling 20.0 Miscellaneous expenses 5.0 Total in USD 656.1 Landed cost of Import ( In INR) 42188.8 Ex-Mumbai (Including GST) 41890.0

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

Currently prices are much above the reference prices. However, this provides a cushion to domestic players from any pricing pressures (a much needed succor for the ailing steel industry)

st - 15 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

3. Decrease in iron ore prices have improved profitability

Most of the players in India have captive mines. With mining issues being resolved more iron ore mines are expected to be allotted thereby easing future supply pressures. Decreasing trend in iron ore pricing is observed from FY13 onwards and it is expected to fall further which would aid profitability of primary steel producers.

Out of the total iron ore requirement (FY18) of 8.9 Million Tonnes, JSPL purchased 4.89 million tonnes of iron ore fines from nearby mines, while iron ore pellets of 4 million tonnes were sourced internally from its pellet plant in Barbil. For the production of pellets in Barbil (which has a capacity of 9 million tonnes) it sources iron ore requirements from the captive Tensa Mine (upto 3 Million Tonnes) and the rest is purchased.

Domestic prices correcting…

NMDC 6-40 MM Iron Ore Lumps YoY NMDC 6-40 MM Iron Ore Lumps MoM

6000 (Rs./MT) 2500 (Rs./MT) 2450 5000 2400 4000 2350 3000 2300 2250 2000 2200 1000 2150 0 2100 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

NMDC 64% Iron Ore Fines YoY NMDC 64% Iron Ore Fines MoM

3500 (Rs./MT) 2250 (Rs./MT) 3000 2200 2500 2150 2100 2000 2050 1500 2000 1000 1950 500 1900 0 1850 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

st - 16 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

…despite global prices moving up

China Iron Ore 62% Fines YoY China Iron Ore 62% Fines MoM

140 (USD/MT) 100 (USD/MT) 120 80 100 80 60

60 40 40 20 20 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research Source: Bloomberg, Ventura Research

Brazil Iron Ore 65% Fines YoY Brazil Iron Ore 65% Fines MoM

160 100 (USD/MT) (USD/MT) 140 80 120

100 60 80 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

Australia Iron 61.5% Fines YoY Australia Iron Ore 61.5% Fines MoM

140 (USD/MT) 90 (USD/MT) 120 80 70 100 60 80 50 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 YTD FY18 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research Source: Steel Mint, Ventura Research

st - 17 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

4. Revival of Indian infrastructure given the measures undertaken by the Modi Government

India became the 3rd largest producer of steel in 2015 and is well poised to emerge as the 2nd largest producer after China. There is significant potential for growth given the low per capita steel consumption of 61 kgs in India, as compared to the world average of 208 kgs. The Indian economy is rapidly growing with enormous focus on the infrastructure and construction sector. Several initiatives mainly, affordable housing, expansion of railway networks, development of shipbuilding industry, opening of defense sector for private participation, and the anticipated growth in the automobile sector, are expected to create a significant amount of demand for steel in the country.

Compelling growth prospects Growth in India’s GDP

600 3500000 9 492.7 500 3000000 400 2500000 311.4 8 282.7 2000000 300 222 1500000 200 7 1000000 63 100 31.3 500000 0 0 6 European US Africa Middle China India FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Union east World steel per capita consumption GDP ( In Million USD) % GDP Growth (RHS)

Source: World Steel Association, Ventura Research Source: Thomson Reuters, Ventura Research

Indian steel demand set to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% from FY17 onwards Particulars (in MTPA) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Capacity 97.0 100.0 110.0 122.0 125.0 130.0 133.0 133.0 Utilisation (%) 81.0 80.0 81.0 74.0 77.0 79.7 82.6 87.6 Crude Steel production 78.6 80.0 89.1 90.3 96.3 103.6 109.9 116.5 Import 7.9 5.5 9.3 11.7 7.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 Export 5.4 6.0 5.6 4.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Double counting 7.6 5.4 15.8 16.4 11.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 Crude Steel demand 73.5 74.1 77.0 81.5 83.7 89.9 96.2 102.8

Source: Steel Ministry, Ventura Research

st - 18 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Sector wise Steel demand growth

Current Estimated Current Future Sr. No. industry application Demand Demand CAGR (%) Share Share Product Profile 2015-16 2030-31 (%) (%) (in MTPA) Bar & Rods, structurals, 1 Construction & Infrastructure 50.5 138.0 7.4 62.0 60.0 plates and pipes 2 Engineering & Fabrication 18.0 50.0 7.6 22.1 21.7 Plates, Bars & Rods

3 Automotive 8.2 28.0 9.2 10.1 12.2 HRC , CRC, Plates 4 Other Transport 2.4 8.0 9.0 2.9 3.5 Railway material 5 Packaging & others 2.4 6.0 6.8 2.9 2.6 Diversified Total Finished Steel Consumption 81.5 230.0 Per Capita (Kg/Capita) 61.0 158.0

Source: Steel Ministry, Ventura Research

5. Shrinking demand supply gap of domestic manufacturers

Investment in new steel capacity creation has come to a halt in India over the last three years due to the deteriorating global steel industry environment and highly leveraged balance sheets of Indian companies. It is estimated that Indian steel demand supply will tighten significantly post FY19 given slowing supply and gradually improving demand.

Indian Steel Supply Particulars (in MTPA) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Capacity 97.0 100.0 110.0 122.0 125.0 130.0 133.0 133.0 Utilisation (%) 81.0 80.0 81.0 74.0 77.0 79.7 82.6 87.6

Crude Steel production 78.6 80.0 89.1 90.3 96.3 103.6 109.9 116.5

Source: Steel Ministry, Ventura Research

6. Culmination of capex at Angul augurs well for JSPL

The Angul plant consists of 1.8 million tonnes of a coal fired synthetic gas based DRI plant and the recently commissioned 3.2 MTPA blast furnace. With these facilities now in operation, crude steel capacity is expected to grow 3X to 4.5MTPA from 1.5 MTPA. We expect steel volumes to grow at a CAGR of 65% to 4.5 MTPA by FY20.

st - 19 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Steelmaking capacity to grow 3 fold by FY18 at Angul v

5 (In MTPA) 4.5 4.5 4.5

4

3

2 1.5 1.5 1.5

1 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, Ventura Research

Steel Volumes to be main contributor

5 (In %) 100 (In MTPA) 90 4 80 3 70 2 60 50 1 40

0 30 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Angul Steel Volumes Utilisation Rate (RHS)

Source: Company, Ventura Research

Break up of finished steel production at Angul Plant

Capacity Production ('000 tonnes) Product ('000 tonnes) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Plates 1200.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 480.0 960.0 1104.0 1140.0

TMT Bar 1400.0 NA NA NA 420.0 980.0 1288.0 1330.0

Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 20 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

7. Existing operations at Raigarh to function at full throttle from FY18 onwards

Total steel making capacity at Raigarh plant is expected to increase by 0.5 MTPA to 3 MTPA by FY20. We expect high steady utilization rates from FY19 onwards.

Stable Steel Volumes expected 4 100 In Milliion Tonnes (In %) 90 3 80

2 70

60 1 50

0 40 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Raigarh utilisation % (RHS)

Source: Company, Ventura Research

Break up of finished steel production at Raigarh Plant

Capacity Production ('000 tonnes) Product ('000 tonnes) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Rails 750.0 252.0 343.6 250.4 225.0 450.0 712.5 712.5 Plates 1000.0 759.9 680.7 705.9 500.0 700.0 920.0 950.0 Sections 600.0 253.5 280.2 352.0 390.0 450.0 552.0 570.0

Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 21 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

8. Oman facility to produce value added products (TMT bars) from FY18 onwards

JSPL completed acquisition in Shadeed Iron & Steel LLC in 2010 (for $464 millions), and commissioned a Hot Briquetted Iron Plant of 1.5 MTPA capacity in FY11. Thereafter in FY14, the Company added a 2 MTPA steel melting shop to manufacture billets. This facility was commissioned in FY15. Further, the company undertook forward integration of 1.4 MTPA TMT bar rolling mill. With TMT bar volumes slowly ramping up, the product mix is expected to help improve average realizations.

Value added product mix

1.6 (In Million Tonnes)

1.4

1.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Billet TMT Bars

Source: Company, Ventura Research

Revenues from this business are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% to Rs. 3,753 crores by FY20.

Stable Revenues

4000 3674 3714 3753 Rs. In crores 3500 3200 3133 3260 2891 3000 2816

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E

Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 22 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Power Business – scripting a strong growth story  In a renewable world, generation mix to still be dominated by coal assets

Despite the high growth of renewables, India’s energy mix will predominantly remain skewed towards thermal sources.

Generation Mix 2016 Generation Mix 2019

4.64 1.91 % share % share

14.13 14.7

14.15 19.48 61.18 69.81

Thermal Renewable Hydro Nuclear Thermal Renewable Hydro Nuclear

Source: PWC, Ventura Research Source: PWC ,Ventura Research

Electricity Demand The overall deficit in fulfilling the energy requirement of the country has declined from 11.5% in FY97 to 2.1% in FY16. The energy requirement is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 7% from 1,354,874 million units in FY17 to 1,904,862 million units in FY22.

Hence, we expect production to keep pace with demand.

Region wise Electricity Demand (In Million Units) Region 2016-17 2021-22 Northern 422498 594000 Western 394188 539310 Southern 357826 510786

Eastern 163790 236952

North East 16154 23244

A & N Island 366 505 Lakshdweep 52 65 Total 1354874 1904862

Source: CEA, Ventura Research

Despite sale of assets JSPL’s power revenues set to grow JSPL has 3,400 MW of generating assets.

st - 23 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Power generation portfolio Tamnar I (2 unitsx250 MW) 1000 MW Sold to JSW Tamnar II (4 units x600 MW)2400 MW energy Total 3400 MW

Source: Company, Ventura Research

However, to deleverage its balance sheet and improve liquidity, it concluded a binding agreement for the sale of a thermal power plant worth Rs. 4,000 crores (1,000 MW plant located at Tamnar, Chhattisgarh). This deal has two options:

Option 1: Sale of asset without Fuel Source Agreement (FSA) for Rs. 4,000 crores Option 2: Sale of asset with FSA for Rs. 6,500 crores

This deal is expected to conclude in H1FY19. In our model we have assumed option 1 for cash flow consideration. This would mean in case of option 2, there would be an upside risk to our EPS estimates by ~ Rs. 9.8 per share in FY19.

Details of Power purchase agreements Project Buyer Period Quantity (MW) FSA Tamnar I Tamil Nadu Sep 2014 to Aug 17 400 r Tamnar IITamil Nadu Feb 2014 to Sep 2028 400 a Sold to JSW Tamnar IIKarnataka Jun 2016 to May 4041 200 a energy Tamnar IIKarnataka Oct 2017 to Sep 2042 150 a Tamnar IIChattisgarh From start of commercial operation 60 a Tamnar IIChattisgarh From start of commercial operation 60 r Total 870

Source: Company, Ventura Research After the asset sale JSPL will be left with a portfolio of 2,400 MW of thermal power. We expect the revenues to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% to Rs. 5,063 crores by FY20. We expect the overall portfolio PLF to improve to 70% from the current 35%. We expect EBIDTA to grow at a CAGR of 20% to Rs. 1,814 crores by FY20.

Capacity reduction with stable utilizations Stable revenue from long term PPA’s 4000 Decline in capacity post 120 6000 3.5 In MW sale of Tanmar I In Rs. Crores 3500 100 5000 3.4 3000 3.3 2500 80 4000 3.2 2000 60 3000 3.1 1500 40 2000 3.0 1000 2.9 500 20 1000 2.8 0 0 0 2.7 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Capacity Overall PLF % (RHS) Revenue Gross realisation Per unit

Source: Company, Ventura Research Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 24 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Mining Business – sizable reserves

Revenues from the mining segment were on a declining trend given the shutdown of its Australian assets (Labour unrest) and scaling down of its Mozambique assets given not so remunerative pricing for coking coal prevalent globally. However with the revival of coking coal prices, the mining operations were reinstated in FY17. We expect strong volume growth of 66% CAGR to 3.9 million tonnes by FY20. In line we expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 27% to Rs. 1,890 crores citing the expected improvement in realizations.

JSPL’s mining vertical has sizeable reserves Annual Location Reserves Capacity Production (MTPA) Realisation

MT MTPA FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 $/Ton

Australia 175.0 2.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 88.0 Mozambique 132.0 3.0 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.4 76.5 South Africa 22.0 1.2 NA NA NA NA NA

Source: Company, Ventura Research

Mining business revenue

2000 1800 In Rs. Crores 1600 1400 1200 1000   800  600  400  200  0  FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E       Source: Company, Ventura Research                         

st - 25 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Strong revenue & profitability growth on cards  Overall on a consolidated basis we expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 22.7% to Rs. 39,184 crores by FY20. On the back of the strong growth trajectory, improved pricing, and stable raw material costs, EBITDA is expected to grow at a faster CAGR of 27% to Rs. 9,615 crores by FY20.

Consolidated Revenue Consolidated EBITDA 50,000 40 45000 (Rs in crore) ( In %) Rs. In Crores  40000 40,000 30  35000 20  30000  30,000 25000 10  20000 20,000 0  15000  10000 10,000 -10 5000   0         0      -20 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E   FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18EFY19E FY20E        Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)                Source: Company, Ventura Research     Source: Company, Ventura Research 

Debt deleveraging on the anvil

In line with the sagging fortunes of the steel industry, JSPL had defaulted on its debt obligations in FY16. JSPL’s debt obligations too had ballooned to Rs. 45,956 crores and debt gearing had peaked at 1.3x. However with the cycle turning for the better in FY2017, JSPL’s servicing of debt was regularized. On the back of our optimistic outlook, expected improvement in profitability and proceeds from the Tamnar I asset (Rs. 4,000 crores) being used to repay debt, we expect the gearing to reduce to 1.0X (FY20 overall debt of Rs. 28,459 crores).

Debt to Equity to Improve Debt to EBITDA ratio 5.0 (X) 14 (X)

4.0 12 10 3.0 8

2.0 6

4 1.0 2 - 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E (1.0)  Debt to Equity ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Debt to EBIDTA ratio

v Source: Company, Ventura Research Source: Company, Ventura Research  

st - 26 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Resurgence in profitability

As a result we expect net earnings to turn around in FY18 (from loss making in FY17) and post a profit of Rs. 1,954 crores by FY20. Although optically profit growth between FY19 and FY20 is seemingly flat, we need to take into account that FY19 profit figure of Rs. 1,864 crores includes an exceptional one time profit of Rs. 1,000 crores. (On Sale of Tamnar I assets to JSW energy)

Strong profitability on track

4000 In % 20 Rs. In Crores 3000 15

2000 10

1000 5

0 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E -1000 -5

-2000 -10

-3000 -15

-4000 -20

PAT PAT margin

Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 27 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Financial Performance

JSPL’s top line grew by 29% YoY in Q4FY17 to Rs. 6,290.5 crores from Rs. 4,872.4 crores in Q4FY16 on account of higher realization from the steel segment. Revenues of the steel segment grew by Rs. 687 crores on the back of a 23% jump in average realization to Rs. 40,163 per tonne in Q4FY17 from Rs. 32,673 per tonne in Q4FY16. Revenues from the power segment increased marginally by 8% YoY to Rs. 1,564.5 crores. The Mining vertical too reported a strong performance with revenues growing to Rs. 279 crores in Q4YF17 from Rs. 30 crores in Q4FY16. EBITDA increased by 42% YoY from Rs. 838.2 crores in Q4FY16 to Rs. 1,522.1 crores and the EBITDA margin improved by 630bps to 24.7% on account of operational leverage and decrease in other expenditure.

In FY17, JSPL net sales stood at Rs. 21,050.5 crores registering a growth of 14.6% YoY. Steel sales volumes increased by 6% from 4.4 million metric tonnes in FY16 to 4.7 million metric tonnes in FY17 leading to a revenue growth of 7.9% to Rs.16,611 crores. The Power segment showed a growth of 12% YoY to Rs. 3880 crores. Further, revenue from mining business increased by 2X from Rs. 409 crores in FY16 to Rs. 891 crores in FY17. EBITDA margin improved by 340 bps to 22.1% in FY17 due to a decrease in raw material costs. Net losses decreased substantially by 24% on reversal of amortization expenses for the mining business.

Financial Performance (Rs. In Crores)

Particulars Q4FY17 Q4FY16 FY17 FY16 Net Sales 6290.5 4872.4 21050.5 18371.6 Growth 29.1% 14.6% Total Expenditure 4738.4 3974.2 16392.5 14934.7 EBITDA 1552.1 898.2 4658.1 3436.9 Margin (%) 24.7% 18.4% 22.1% 18.7% Depreciation 1005.8 1232.4 3949.0 4067.9 EBIT (Ex OI) 546.2 -334.2 709.0 -631.0 Non Operating Income 9.0 107.4 10.0 156.7

EBIT 555.2 -226.8 719.0 -474.3 Margin (%) 8.8% -4.7% 3.4% -2.6% Finance cost 864.2 853.2 3389.6 3253.6 Exceptional items 253.4 -112.6 -372.3 -235.8 PBT -55.5 -967.4 -3042.9 -3963.7 Margin (%) -0.9% -19.9% -0.1 -0.2 Provision for Tax 42.7 330.8 -502.7 -877.5 Profit after tax -98.2 -636.7 -2540.2 -3086.2 Margin (%) -1.6% -13.1% -0.1 -0.2 Minority 50.5 58.7 -258.9 119.9 Profit after Tax and allocation of minority -47.7 -578.0 -2281.3 -2966.3 e Source: Company ,Ventura Research

st - 28 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Financial Outlook

We expect net sales to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 22.7% from Rs. 21,050.5 crores in FY17 to Rs. 39,184 crores in FY20 on the back of an Infrastructure push by the Government, revival of the global steel cycle, completion of capex and monetization of the thermal power plant asset. EBITDA margin is set to improve to ~24% (+200 bps) by FY20 due to improved sales and stabilization of production cost. Further, the PAT margins are expected to improve to ~3.75% by FY20 from current levels on account of a gradual decrease in the interest cost. As a consequence, the return ratios, ROE and ROCE are set to improve significantly from -8% and -4% in FY17 to 7% and 4% respectively by FY20.

Strong Business growth visible Reducing Debt 45,000 40 2.4 ( In %) (No of times) (Rs in crore) 40,000 2.1 30 35,000 1.8 30,000 20 1.5 25,000 10 1.2 20,000 15,000 0 0.9 10,000 0.6 -10 5,000 0.3

0 -20 - FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT Margin (RHS) Debt to Equity ratio

Source: Company, Ventura Research Source: Company, Ventura Research

Upswing in return ratios Healthy working capital cycle

15 (In %) 100 (No of days) 90 10 80 70 5 60 0 50 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E 40 -5 30 20 -10 10 0 -15 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E RoCE RoE Inventory Days Debtor Days Credit Days

Source: Company, Ventura Research Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 29 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Key Risk

 Coal block allocation scam

CBI had registered a case against Mr. in the allocation of the Amarkonda Murgadangal coal block in . On 24th April, 2017 Mr. Jindal was formally charged with criminal misconduct & false representation of facts in the allocation of above coal block. Further, on 10th July, 2017 CBI filed another supplementary charge sheet against Mr. Jindal in the Urtan North coal block case. In our view, the above mentioned cases will not have any financial impact on the company. Markets have already priced in the impact of above cases & any adverse order will not impact the fortunes of the company.

 Slow down in Infrastructure boom

Steel demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% on the back of a boost given to infrastructure by the launch of “Housing for all by 2020”, infrastructure status given to housing projects, opening up of the defence sector to private players and growth in the automobile industry. Any delays in achieving the stipulated targets would mean a setback to anticipated steel demand and hence impact the profitability assumption for JSPL negatively.

st - 30 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

 Valuation

We initiate coverage on JSPL as a BUY with a price objective of Rs. 472 (7.0X EV/EBIDTA) representing a potential upside of ~204.5% from the CMP of Rs. 155. At present, the stock is trading at 4.5X and 3.9X its estimated EV/EBIDTA for FY19 and FY20. Although our valuation is aggressive, we believe that the following factors warrant a premium:

1. Robust outlook of the Steel sector, not only on the domestic front but globally too, augurs well for JSPL.

2. Commissioning of the 3.2 MTPA blast furnace at Angul to bolster the steel segment’s revenue at a CAGR of 24% from Rs.16,280 crores in FY17 to Rs. 31,574 crores by FY20.

3. Improving outlook on Power business, revenues are going to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% to Rs. 5,063 crores by FY20.

4. Mining operations to get a fillip, therefore revenues are going to grow at a CAGR of 27% to Rs. 1,890 crores by FY20.

5. Sale of 1000 MW Tamnar-I asset to create liquidity which in turn would aid in bringing down debt and improve the solvency position of the company

JSPL EV/EBIDTA trend 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

EV 7X 8X 9X 10X 11X

Source: Company, Ventura Research

st - 31 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Peer Comparison (Rs. In crore)

EBITDA PAT EV/ ROE ROCE P/E P/BV Debt/ Y/E March Sales EBITDA PAT Margin Margin EBITDA (%) (%) (x) (x) Equity (%) (%) (x) Jindal Steel and Power 100.00% 2016 18,371.0 3,436.0 -2,730 18.7 -14.9 -9 -5 N/A 0.4 3 1.4 2017 21,051.0 4,658.0 -2,281 22.1 -10.8 -7.6 -3.8 N/A 0.4 11.2 1.3 2018E 13,415.0 7,745.0 115 24.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 11,1.3 0.4 6.2 1.2 2019E 37,329.0 8,991.0 1,865 24.1 5 6.4 2.6 6.9 0.4 4.5 1.1 Tata Steel 2016 1,15,951.7 7,585.7 925.6 6.5 0.8 3.0 2.2 15.6 0.7 17.0 2.0 2017 1,11,562.1 17,535.3 3,947.6 15.7 3.5 3.1 9.6 14.1 1.2 7.3 2.4 2018E 1,23,001.2 18,507.2 5,350.7 15.0 4.4 15.4 8.2 11.3 1.5 7.2 2.3

2019E 1,24,918.5 19,942.0 6,133 16.0 4.9 15.2 6.4 9.4 1.3 6.7 2.0 2016 38,513.7 -3,632.8 -4,137.3 -9.4 -10.7 -10.0 -9.5 N/A 0.4 N/A 0.9 2017 44,452.4 38.0 -2,616.5 0.1 -5.9 -7.0 -3.5 N/A 0.7 1,634.4 0.9 2018E 55,243.1 4,856.0 -715.5 8.8 -1.3 -0.5 2.0 77.8 0.7 12.9 1.2 2019E 61,437.8 6,949.6 924.8 11.3 1.5 2.3 4.6 21.2 0.7 9.0 1.2 JSW Steel

2016 41,217.3 6,073.0 1,383.5 14.7 3.4 6.2 5.1 N/A 1.6 15.4 1.8 2017 54,628.2 12,174.2 3,523.1 22.3 6.4 15.9 14.9 12.7 2.0 7.7 1.6 2018E 62,293.7 12,981.1 4,011.6 20.8 6.4 15.9 11.7 13.0 2.0 7.2 1.7 2019E 65,558.7 14,306.6 4,797.6 21.8 7.3 16.4 12.5 10.9 1.7 6.6 1.5 Prakash Industries 2016 2,055.3 159.5 20.6 7.8 1.0 1.0 3.3 64.1 0.6 10.1 0.3 2017 2,173.5 261.2 81 12.0 3.7 3.7 5.8 16.3 0.6 7.6 0.2

2018E 3,059.9 427.0 192.3 14.0 6.3 7.7 10.3 10.8 0.8 6.3 0.2 2019E 3,475.6 482.5 243.0 13.9 7.0 8.9 11.4 8.6 0.8 5.0 0.2

Source: Thomson Reuters, Ventura Research

st - 32 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financials and Projections

Y/E March, Fig in ₹ Cr FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Y/E March, Fig in ₹ Cr FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs) Net Sales 18371.6 21050.5 31414.9 37239.1 39183.7 Adj. EPS -32.4 -24.9 1.3 20.4 21.4 % Chg. 14.6 49.2 18.5 5.2 Cash EPS 12.0 18.2 47.6 68.7 69.7 Total Expenditure 14934.7 16392.5 23669.8 28248.0 29569.0 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 % Chg. 9.8 44.4 19.3 4.7 Book Value 354.5 328.4 314.9 320.5 327.0 EBDITA 3436.9 4658.1 7745.2 8991.1 9614.7 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio EBDITA Margin % 18.7 22.1 24.7 24.1 24.5 Debt / Equity (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Other Income 156.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Current Ratio (x) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 PBDIT 3593.6 4668.0 7755.2 9001.1 9624.7 ROE (%) -9% -8% 0% 6% 7% Depreciation 4067.9 3949.0 4237.2 4420.6 4425.5 ROCE (%) -5% -4% 0% 3% 4% Interest 3253.6 3389.6 3368.6 3031.9 2681.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exceptional items 235.8 372.3 0.0 1000.0 0.0 Valuation Ratio (x) PBT -3963.7 -3042.9 149.4 2548.6 2517.5 P/E NA NA 119.9 7.5 7.1 Tax Provisions -877.5 -502.7 32.1 663.0 541.3 P/BV 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Reported PAT -3086.2 -2540.2 117.3 1885.7 1976.3 EV/Sales 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 Minority Interest -119.9 -258.9 1.3 20.8 21.8 EV/EBIDTA 16.7 11.5 6.3 4.6 4.0 PAT -2966.3 -2281.3 116.0 1864.9 1954.5 Efficiency Ratio (x) PAT Margin (%) -16.1 -10.8 0.4 5.0 5.0 Inventory (days) 64.7 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 RM / Sales (%) 35.6 33.6 30.9 31.6 32.0 Debtors (days) 28.4 32.0 31.0 30.0 30.0 Tax Rate (%) 22.1 16.5 21.5 26.0 21.5 Creditors (days) 46.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 48.0

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Share Capital 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5 Profit Before Tax -2674.9 -3042.9 149.4 2548.6 2517.5 Reserves & Surplus 32344.6 29959.0 28721.0 29231.9 29832.4 Depreciation 3046.2 3949.0 4237.2 4420.6 4425.5 Minority Interest 899.8 646.7 647.9 666.7 820.0 Working Capital Changes 1366.0 4462.5 735.2 -1575.0 -2245.3 Long Term Borrowings 36353.0 32598.3 28398.1 23944.6 21099.6 Others 2594.7 -2896.9 -3346.5 -3704.9 -3232.9 Deferred Tax Liability 6621.2 5358.6 4913.8 4945.1 4483.1 Operating Cash Flow 4332.0 2471.8 1775.3 1689.3 1464.8 Other Non Current Liabilities 289.4 1071.6 1104.0 1167.0 1188.0 Capital Expenditure -2254.3 121.5 -300.0 5728.9 -300.0 Total Liabilities 76599.5 69725.8 63876.2 60046.7 57514.6 Other Investment Activities -7.3 -1017.7 -55.6 -3040.0 -11.8 Gross Block 84142.8 86131.5 86431.5 89416.6 89716.6 Cash Flow from Investing-2261.6 -896.1 -355.6 2688.9 -311.8 Less: Acc. Depreciation 22930.0 23942.0 29404.5 32026.4 37687.5 Changes in Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Block 61212.7 62189.5 57027.1 57390.2 52029.1 Changes in Borrowings 923.0 -4172.5 -4200.3 -4453.5 -2845.0 Capital Work in Progress 11826.8 9716.2 9716.2 1002.2 1002.2 Dividend and Interest -3594.9 2453.7 2924.9 3082.1 2373.0 Non Current Investments 4217.2 3742.1 3613.4 3490.0 3371.6 Cash Flow from Financing-2671.9 -1718.8 -1275.4 -1371.4 -472.0 Net Current Assets -3862.1 -7938.1 -8496.5 -3851.7 -904.3 Net Change in Cash -601.5 -143.2 144.4 3006.8 681.0 Long term Loans & Advances3204.9 2016.1 2016.1 2016.1 2016.1 Opening Cash Balance 1221.9 620.0 477.2 621.6 3628.4 Total Assets 76599.5 69725.8 63876.2 60046.7 57514.6 Closing Cash Balance 620.4 477.2 621.6 3628.4 4309.4

st - 33 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Disclosures and Disclaimer Ventura Securities Limited (VSL) is a SEBI registered intermediary offering broking, depository and portfolio management services to clients. VSL is member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX. VSL is a depository participant of NSDL. VSL states that no disciplinary action whatsoever has been taken by SEBI against it in last five years except administrative warning issued in connection with technical and venial lapses observed while inspection of books of accounts and records. Ventura Commodities Limited, Ventura Guaranty Limited, Ventura Insurance Brokers Limited and Ventura Allied Services Private Limited are associates of VSL. Research Analyst (RA) involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL disclose that neither RA nor VSL nor its associates (i) have any financial interest in the company which is the subject matter of this research report (ii) holds ownership of one percent or more in the securities of subject company (iii) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report (iv) have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months (v) have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in past twelve months (vi) have received any compensation for investment banking merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months (vii) have received any compensation for product or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (viii) have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. RA involved in the preparation of this research report discloses that he / she has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. RA involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL discloses that they have not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company. Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of VSL. This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients / prospective clients of VSL. VSL will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients / prospective clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. And such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by VSL, its associates, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We do not provide tax advice to our clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. VSL, the RA involved in the preparation of this research report and its associates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. This report/document has been prepared by VSL, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. VSL has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This publication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of VSL. This report or any portion hereof may not be printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of VSL. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of VSL and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Securities Market.

Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079

st - 34 of 34- Tuesday 1 July, 2017

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.