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The Marketpulse November 2019 the Marketpulse The MarketPulse November 2019 The MarketPulse Volume 8, Issue 11 November 2019 Data as of Table of Contents September 2019 (unless otherwise stated) Special Report: Amazon HQ2 and the Washington, D.C. Metro Housing Market. 3 Housing Statistics Jumbo-Conforming Mortgage Rate Spread Trend. .6 November 2019 Four of the Five States with Increases in HPI® YOY Chg 3.5% Delinquency Rates in August also had Increases HPI YOY Chg XD 3.1% NegEq Share in Unemployment Rates ...............................8 3.8% (Q2 2019) Multifamily Ownership and Mortgage Use by Property Size .....................................10 In The News .........................................11 Charts & Graphs .....................................12 10 Largest CBSA – Loan Performance Insights Report August 2019 . 12 Overview of Loan Performance. 12 Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed. 13 Home Price Index. 14 CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition Overview. .15 September 2019. 15 September 2024. 15 News Media Contact Todd Taylor [email protected] 619-938-6829 (office) 2 Special Report: Amazon HQ2 and the Washington, D.C. Metro Housing Market The Amazon HQ2 Announcement: Have Housing Prices Changed a Year Later? Ralph McLaughlin Deputy Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin holds the title deputy chief economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist. He is responsible for leading economic research and using data and analytics to expand the visibility of the CoreLogic economic policy unit. He also works to enhance research capabilities and tools for clients, industry leaders, the public sector and news media. Ralph has more than 15 years of experience in housing economics, applied econometrics, real estate development and investment, land use planning, spatial analysis, and economic geography. He previously worked at Trulia and Veritas Urbis Economics. He also served as an assistant professor at the San Jose State University. While at Trulia, he led the company’s housing economics research team, providing buyers with key insights about the economy, housing trends and public policy. On November 13, 2018, Amazon stunned the news cycle growth of the metro area, but also of individual zip by announcing that it was choosing not one, but two codes within the region. sites for the location of its second headquarters (HQ2): Arlington County, Virginia, at Crystal City, and Queens, New In this CoreLogic special report, our findings are York at Long Island City. However, just three months after threefold. First, we see little evidence the metro area the announcement, Amazon said it would be withdrawing has experienced a large increase in housing prices since its intent to1 open mclaughlin the New York location, instead fig focusing 1 the November 2018 announcement. Second, and in on job growth in Crystal City and other locations. contrast, we do find some individual zip codes— . Subhead copy goes here especially those near the HQ2 location—have had a Now a year has passed from the announcement, and strong uptick in price gains since the announcement. one burning question remains: Has the news had any Lastly, we discovered that the relationship between noticeable effect on the Washington, D.C. housing market? In this post, we look at not only home price Continued on page 4 Figure 1. DC Metro Division Home Price Growth Muted Since HQ2 CoreLogic Home Price Index, Year-Over-Year Change 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% HQ2 Announcement 0.0% July 2018 July 2019 July May 2018 May 2019 May March 2018 March 2019 March January 2018 January January 2019 January November 2018 November September 2018 September 2019 September Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metro Division Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville Metro Division U.S. Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index, not seasonally adjusted (November 5, 2019 release) 3 ©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 Special Report continued from page 3 Figure 2. Washington, DC Metro Area Zip Codes Quickening of Home Price Growth Clustered Near Amazon HQ2 Zip Code YOY Home Price Growth, YOY Home Price Growth, % Point Difference, Distance to Amazon HQ2 (Area Name) Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Sep 2018–Sep 2019 (Miles) 20815 (Chevy Chase) -1.1% 11.8% +12.9 Pts. 8.3 22180 (Vienna) -4.8% 6.6% +11.4 Pts. 10.9 22306 (Mt. Vernon) -5.3% 6.1% +11.4 Pts. 7.4 22302* (Alexandria) -1.7% 9.3% +11.0 Pts. 2.6 22206* (Arlington) -1.5% 11.8% +10.4 Pts. 2.2 22201* (Arlington) -1.1% 11.0% +9.8 Pts. 2.6 22311* (Alexandria) -1.3% 8.4% +9.6 Pts. 3.8 20151 (Chantilly) -2.2% 7.2% +9.4 Pts. 20.6 20017 (DC NE) 0.3% 9.4% +9.1 Pts. 6.3 22204* (Arlington) 0.0% 8.6% +8.7 Pts. 2.1 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index, not seasonally adjusted (November 5, 2019 release) *Denotes adjacency to other top 10 zip proximity to the HQ2 site and home price gains have rates and uncertain macroeconomic conditions stymied strengthened remarkably since March 2019. the market towards the end of 2018 and into the first half 2019. While anecdotal, this does suggest that the Regional Home Price Growth Since the HQ2 HQ2 announcement possibly buoyed the market in what Announcement Muted might have otherwise been a period of slowing home The impact of Amazon choosing the district housing price growth for the Washington, D.C. metro area. market (which includes both the Washington-Arlington- Alexandria and Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville metro Geography Matters: Zips Near Crystal City See divisions) for the location of their HQ2 is unclear at Sharp Increase in Price Growth best. Looking at the year-over-year change in the While evidence is somewhat weak that the HQ2 monthly CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI), the data announcement boosted the regional market, our zip shows that both metro divisions saw little change in code-level analysis shows a different story. Namely, that the rate of appreciation after November 2018. In there is a correlation between proximity to the HQ2 site September 2018 (the most recent comparison month and the increase of home price appreciation over the past between 2018 and 2019), annual home price growth in year. Of the top 10 zip codes with the largest increase in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria and Silver Spring- year-over-year growth rates, half are within a 5- mile Frederick-Rockville metro divisions rested at 3.4% and distance of the HQ2 site and eight are within 10 miles. 2.1%, respectively, but grew slightly to 3.5% and 2.3% by September 2019. This is hardly what one would call The top three zip codes with the largest increase in a “boom.” their September 2018 and September 2019 year-over- year growth rates are not immediately adjacent to HQ2. However, when compared to national trends over the These zip codes are 20815 (Chevy Chase, Maryland), same period, there is evidence that these two metro 22180 (Vienna, Virginia) and 22306 (Mount Vernon, divisions outperformed the broader area. National Virginia). Each of these areas is at least 7 miles away home price growth descended by nearly two whole from HQ2, suggesting little correlation between the percentage points, from 5.3% to 3.5%, as high mortgage Continued on page 5 4 Special Report continued from page 4 1 mclaughlin fig 4 . Subhead copy goes here Figure 3. Zip Codes Near HQ2 See Home Price Growth Pick Up Figure 4. Fortunate Five Zip Codes Booming After Arlinton-Alexandria Zip Code Cluster of Price Appreciation Emerges HQ2 Announcement Home Price Growth Booms to Double Digits in Five Arlington- Alexandria Zips 14.0% 12.0% HQ2 Announcement 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index, not seasonally adjusted -2.0% (November 5, 2019 release); Map by R.B. McLaughlin -4.0% HQ2 announcement1 mclaughlin and the zip codes that fig have picked5 July 2018 July 2019 July up the most gains in home price appreciation. 2018 May 2019 May . Subhead copy goes here 2018 March 2019 March However, there is a cluster of zip codes in the top-10 2018 January 2019 January November 2018 November list that are all within 4 miles of HQ2 and adjacent to 2018 September 2019 September one another. These include 22302 (Alexandria, 22302 22206 22201 22311 22204 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index, not seasonally adjusted Continued on page 11 (November 5, 2019 release) Figure 5. Zip Codes Near Amazon HQ2 Picking Up Steam Areas Near HQ2 Appreciated Faster After HQ2 Announcement Jun-19 15% 10% ©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2 5% CoreLogic YOY Change, CoreLogic HPI 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 -5% Zip Code Distance from HQ2 Location (Miles) Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index, not seasonally adjusted (November 5, 2019 release); Author’s Calculation 5 ©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3 Jumbo-Conforming Mortgage Rate Spread Trend Adjusting for risk, location, and loan-size reduced spread from -30 to -6 basis points during 2013Q2 to 2019Q2 Archana Pradhan Economist Archana Pradhan is an economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing housing and mortgage markets trends. Before 2013 mortgage rates for jumbo loans were The mortgage rate and the jumbo-conforming rate higher than for conforming loans. However, since 2013 spread are inversely correlated (Figure 1).2 For the rate-difference narrowed and today jumbo loans example, as the mortgage rate dropped during the typically have a lower interest rate. first eight months of 2019 the spread has gone up. As the mortgage rate dropped the refinance application An increase in GSE guarantee fee, a reduction in the volume jumped up; because of a limited secondary GSE funding advantage, and portfolio lenders’ desire market for jumbo loans and cutbacks in staffing at to hold jumbo loans explain much of the variation in many lenders, bottlenecks in jumbo-loan production 1 2 pradhanthe jumbo-conforming Fig 2 spread.
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