Document of The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized
Report No: 29944 KG
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT (IDA-31660 TF-22858)
ON A
CREDIT Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 7.3 MILLION (US $9.55 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
FOR A
FLOOD EMERGENCY PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized
September 16, 2004
Socially and Environmentally Sustainable Development (ECSSD) Central Asia Country Unit Europe and Central Asia Region Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective May 2004) Currency Unit = Kyrgyz Som (KGS) KGS 1 = US$ 0.023 US$ 1 = KGS 43
FISCAL YEAR January 1 December 31
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
CAS Country Assistance Strategy CC Coordinating Committee CNaR Construction Norms and Regulations DCA Development Credit Agreement DWR Department of Water Resources of MOAWRPI EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return FAO/CP Cooperative Program of the Food and Agriculture Organization FEP Flood Emergency Project FMPA Flood and Mudflow Protection Agency GOK Government of Kyrgyzstan ICR Implementation Completion Report IDA International Development Association IRP Irrigation Rehabilitation Project KDI Kyrgyz Design Institute M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MEE Ministry of Ecology and Emergencies MIS Management Information System MOAWRPI Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources, and Processing Industry MTR Mid-Term Review NGO Non-Governmental Organization NPV Net Present Value OIP On-Farm Irrigation Project PAD Project Appraisal Document Reno mattress A wire mesh cage filled with stones SDR Special Drawing Right SNIP Russian acronym for Construction Norms and Regulations (CNaR)
Vice President: Shigeo Katsu Country Director: Dennis de Tray Sector Manager: Joseph Goldberg Task Team Leader: Joop Stoutjesdijk
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC KYRGYZ FLOOD EMERGENCY PROJECT
CONTENTS
Page No. 1. Project Data 1 2. Principal Performance Ratings 1 3. Assessment of Development Objective and Design, and of Quality at Entry 2 4. Achievement of Objective and Outputs 5 5. Major Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcome 12 6. Sustainability 13 7. Bank and Borrower Performance 15 8. Lessons Learned 16 9. Partner Comments 17 10. Additional Information 19 Annex 1. Key Performance Indicators/Log Frame Matrix 20 Annex 2. Project Costs and Financing 21 Annex 3. Economic Costs and Benefits 23 Annex 4. Bank Inputs 25 Annex 5. Ratings for Achievement of Objectives/Outputs of Components 27 Annex 6. Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance 28 Annex 7. List of Supporting Documents 29 Annex 8. Studies undertaken under the Flood Emergency Project 30 Annex 9. Works and Studies undertaken under the IRP relating to the FEP 32 Annex 10. Engineering - Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Infrastructure 34 Annex 11. Impact of Works 41
Project ID: P062682 Project Name: KYRGYZ FLOOD EMERGENCY PROJECT Team Leader: Joop Stoutjesdijk TL Unit: ECSSD ICR Type: Core ICR Report Date: September 16, 2004
1. Project Data Name: KYRGYZ FLOOD EMERGENCY PROJECT L/C/TF Number: IDA-31660; TF-22858 Country/Department: KYRGYZ REPUBLIC Region: Europe and Central Asia Region Sector/subsector: Flood protection (69%); Irrigation and drainage (25%); Central government administration (6%) Theme: Natural disaster management (P); Water resource management (P); Rural services and infrastructure (S)
KEY DATES Original Revised/Actual PCD: 08/03/1998 Effective: 04/01/1999 04/07/1999 Appraisal: 09/04/1998 MTR: 03/17/2000 06/17/2000 Approval: 01/26/1999 Closing: 09/30/2001 03/31/2004
Borrower/Implementing Agency: KYRGYZ REPUBLIC/DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES Other Partners:
STAFF Current At Appraisal Vice President: Shigeo Katsu Johannes Linn Country Director: Dennis de Tray Kiyoshi Kodera Sector Manager: Joseph Goldberg Joseph Goldberg Team Leader at ICR: Joop Stoutjesdijk Joop Stoutjesdijk ICR Primary Author: FAO
2. Principal Performance Ratings
(HS=Highly Satisfactory, S=Satisfactory, U=Unsatisfactory, HL=Highly Likely, L=Likely, UN=Unlikely, HUN=Highly Unlikely, HU=Highly Unsatisfactory, H=High, SU=Substantial, M=Modest, N=Negligible) Outcome: S Sustainability: HL Institutional Development Impact: SU Bank Performance: HS Borrower Performance: S
QAG (if available) ICR Quality at Entry: S Project at Risk at Any Time: No 3. Assessment of Development Objective and Design, and of Quality at Entry 3.1 Original Objective:
The project’s objective was “to improve and secure the sustainability of infrastructure facilities, which, if unattended, could lead to loss of human life and economic losses”. The PAD further specified that the project was of an emergency nature and that the aim was to rehabilitate or reconstruct damaged flood protection infrastructure along rivers and irrigation infrastructure to prevent losses which could be expected from a river changing its course and eroding inhabited river banks during another flood or from an irrigation headworks arrangement that would fail to divert water in adequate quantities and at the right time to irrigation areas. The Development Credit Agreement (DCA) synthesized the objective of the project as “to enhance the protection of population and infrastructure against flooding”.
In the early summer of 1998 several major rivers in southern Kyrgyzstan experienced their greatest flood levels since records began in 1927. Flood flows in rivers carried high bedloads of stones and other material which bombarded and severely eroded river banks supporting human settlements. The floods caused significant damage and exposed both the weakness of existing flood protection works and the vulnerability of the population to the effects of flood flows in rivers fed by snow-melt, glaciers, and unpredictable rains. About 1,000 houses, and public buildings and infrastructure were damaged or destroyed by overtopping of the Kugart River defenses in Suzak Raion. Villages along other rivers in the region were also affected. The total value of the damages was estimated by government up to US $75 million. Similarly, irrigation infrastructure such as intake works, spurs, and embankments protecting conveyance canals were either completely destroyed or badly damaged. Headworks on the Shakhimardan and Sokh Rivers were devastated by high releases of water from an upstream lake and reservoir respectively. Irrigation canals were silted, blocked by landslides and eroded by overtopping.
The Government of Kyrgyzstan (GOK), with the assistance of several donors, undertook emergency relief, started resettling flood victims, and took emergency remedial works on levees and irrigation intakes to ensure summer irrigation as much as possible for 1998. But remedial works could, of necessity, only assure temporary repair. IDA assisted by modifying the allocation of funds under its ongoing Irrigation Rehabilitation Project (IRP) to provide up to US $4 million for post-flood works to reconstruct the most severely damaged levee sections along the Kugart River and clean the Kugart River of sediment close to Suzak. In addition, IRP funds allowed the repair of headworks at 4 irrigation schemes, namely Aravan, Mailuu-Suu, Kara Ungur, and Kugart (see Annex 9 for list of works and studies completed under IRP). About US $3 million of IRP funds were used.
Other locations were in need of larger-scale reconstruction and rehabilitation. The Flood Emergency Project (FEP; US $10 million at approval) was prepared at the direct request of GOK and was formulated on the basis of studies conducted under IRP. Project preparation was carried out in close cooperation with the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It was agreed at an early stage that IDA would focus on water-related infrastructure, while the ADB would provide US $5 million for the rehabilitation of flood-damaged public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and electricity lines in Jalal-Abad and Osh Oblasts. ADB's Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project was implemented from 1999 to 2003.
The FEP objective met the needs of the situation, was defined quite specifically in the PAD and has remained unaltered. Serious floods occur in any year in the Kyrgyz Republic, and indeed, large flash flows have been recorded in the same rivers since 1998, but thankfully without any significant damage. The project has benefitted a region which is the most densely populated of Kyrgyzstan with high incidence of
- 2 - poverty. It was therefore in consonance with IDA’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) and remains so. A key priority of recent Country Assistance Strategies, including the current one that supports the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS), is to promote sustainable economic growth that will result in poverty reduction. Within this is the need to help stem deterioration in key infrastructure.
3.2 Revised Objective:
The objective was not revised during implementation.
3.3 Original Components:
The project had two components of which the first was sub-divided as follows:
(a) Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of River Protection and Irrigation Infrastructure, and Establishment of a Flood Warning System (Indicative cost at appraisal - US $13.43 million; of which US $9.40 million from IDA):
(i) River Embankments (US $8.97 million; of which US $6.28 million from IDA) - 8.8 km along 5 rivers; (ii) Deflector Spurs (US $1.66 million; of which US $1.16 million from IDA) - 23 spurs, typically 100 m long; (iii) Irrigation Infrastructure – Works Inside River Beds (US $2.33 million; of which US $1.63 million from IDA) - works on 12 irrigation schemes, including 19 intake and protection spurs; - repairs to protection works of 6 km of conveyance canal, and other minor works; (iv) Irrigation Infrastructure – Works Outside River Beds (US $0.23 million; of which US $0.16 million from IDA) - urgent works in 4 schemes, including drain overpass reconstruction and spillway - reconstruction on debris collection dams; (v) River Gauging Stations and Flood Warning System (US $0.24 million; of which US $0.17 million from IDA) - along the Kugart river.
(b) Project Management and Implementation Support (US $0.70 million; of which US $0.60 million from IDA) - strengthening of PIU of IRP, with staff and equipment, technical assistance for design, construction supervision, staff training, and audits.
The project was circumscribed to Jalal-Abad and Osh Oblasts. In 2000, Osh Oblast was split into Osh and Batken Oblasts. The project was designed as a two-year program of an emergency nature. It would be implemented by the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) already established under the IRP in the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources (MOAWR; later transformed into the Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources, and Processing Industry - MOAWRPI). The list of works to be undertaken was identified in preliminary form in the PAD, but the PAD stressed that other works could be included later if identified as of higher priority and agreed by IDA. Designs were to be based on existing flood protection norms of 1:200 year and 1:100 year protection for settlements and irrigation infrastructure respectively. An inter-ministerial Coordinating Committee (CC), which would also include the Deputy Governors of the project oblasts, was to oversee project implementation on behalf of GOK.
- 3 - 3.4 Revised Components:
The components were not formally revised, but few changes were made to some of the sub-components. During project implementation design engineers, assisted by an international consultant, found that longitudinal embankments were generally more suited to stream geometry than deflector spurs, which were used a lot during the Soviet times. Irrigation works outside river beds and some of the proposed works inside river beds were dropped at the request of GOK in 2001, because reconstruction of the irrigation headworks on the Sokh and Shakhimardan Rivers, initially planned to be implemented under the modified IRP, and additional river protection works were judged to be of greater priority. Repairs to some of the smaller irrigation works were carried out by the Department of Water Resources and by the IRP (see also Chapter 4).
The project became effective on April 7, 1999. The Credit was extended twice: first by 2 years to September 2003 and then to March 2004. During the initial design works it became clear that the design and construction methods typically used in the country would not provide durable structures. Emphasis was therefore not just given to rebuilding damaged infrastructure, but also on designing and constructing more durable and sustainable infrastructure. As such, it became a full-fledged infrastructure investment project. As a result of this and other factors (see Section 4.2 below), the time originally allowed for completion of the project - covering only two autumn/winter construction seasons - was unrealistically short. The project could have been completed by September 2003, where it not for very early and above average floods during the spring and summer of 2003. In January 2003 there was a minor reallocation of funds to Works from the Consulting Services and Training and Unallocated Categories.
3.5 Quality at Entry:
There was no formal assessment of the Quality at Entry (QAE) by a QAG Panel. The Quality at Entry has been rated satisfactory by the ICR team. A few comments are given that would have improved the Quality at Entry.
The project was prepared speedily with substantial GOK input and, realistically, allowed flexibility on choice of sub-projects. However, in hindsight it was unrealistic to expect completion of implementation within 2 years. The necessity of halting works during flood periods was not mentioned in the PAD.
The specified indicators for measuring project success were rather general. Indicators for cost-effectiveness were not included.
The Bank’s safeguard policies were observed. The project involved works on major rivers bordering, or flowing, into Uzbekistan, subject to international agreements. Notification of project proposals for IRP (involving many of the same rivers) had previously been transmitted to the Government of Uzbekistan (GOU) through the Bank and, for FEP, it was judged that notification was not required since the project would not affect the quantity or quality of water flowing into Uzbekistan. Although more broader of an issue, the implications of water management arrangements (especially dams managed by GOU upstream of proposed works) and the logistical implications of operating close to national borders could have been addressed more explicitly in the PAD.
- 4 - 4. Achievement of Objective and Outputs 4.1 Outcome/achievement of objective:
Traditional practices of flood protection in the Kyrgyz Republic tended to rely heavily on both concrete lining and random placement of large rocks at vulnerable locations, which have proven not to be very durable methods. The project benefitted from an Austrian Shilling 12 million (about US $750,000) grant to cofinance the project. These funds were used to procure Reno mattresses, where conditions are suitable, and provide short-term international technical assistance (TA). This helped to overcome the initial resistance of staff of the Department of Water Resources (DWR) and Kyrgyz Design Institute (KDI) to use Reno mattresses, as it was a largely unknown construction material in Kyrgyzstan. The introduction of Reno mattresses also supported the creation of local manufacturing capacity for the mesh. The Reno mattress is a very appropriate technology for Kyrgyzstan, since it requires a significant labor force for assembly and uses locally available stone, thus reducing transport costs and demand on quarry stocks of high quality rock. In economic and environmental terms, use of Reno mattresses involves imports of zinc-coated wire and of geotextile, local stone and labor, in place of imports of transport/handling machinery and of fuel and local rock. However, the same TA introduced optimization on the use of rock for levee protection by new methods of special placement, the introduction of rock aprons at the toe of levees, and the use of filter layers to protect the foundation material. The TA was able to introduce the necessary designs without having to resort to modeling in hydraulic laboratories, for which an allocation was provided in the PAD.
The project has achieved the following (see Annex 11 for detailed assessment of impact):
l security against flood damage increased for 3 raion centers (Aravan-Sai, Kara-Kuldja, and Suzak), located along three rivers; l security against flood damage increased for 24 villages, located along six river systems (including one that also has Suzak along its banks); l about 40,000 people living in flood zones protected directly; l over 70,000 people (living outside the immediate flood zone) have benefitted indirectly from the protection of their settlements, as infrastructure is safer; l eight irrigation schemes, with a total command area over 34,300 ha, have secured water supply. In six of these, intake and canal protection works have obviated the need for continuing temporary training works using bulldozers; l river gauging stations and flood warning systems are built on four rivers; l small areas of usable amenity or agricultural land have been gained behind embankments; l new roads (on top of the levees) have been constructed; l one bridge has been built; and l new design and construction methods have been introduced and staff have been trained.
The works were carried out to high engineering standards, at least-cost for those standards. The cost per km was considerably lower than estimated at appraisal, but higher than the cost of other past and recent reconstruction/rehabilitation works of lower engineering standards. Further detailed study would be required to establish the optimum combination of cost and effectiveness of protection. The overall environmental impact of the flood control and irrigation works is positive. Precautions to avoid any negative environmental impact of construction works at each sub-project site have been applied constantly during design and implementation.
- 5 - Approximately 12.1 km (or just under half) of the embankments built under FEP were lined with Reno mattresses placed over geotextile. Mattresses bought from the Austrian funds were used for about 5.4 km of these embankments in the Tar and Yassy sub-projects. So far, the Reno mattresses have shown good durability and it may be that considerable cost savings can be achieved by their use in future embankment protection elsewhere in Kyrgyzstan. Other embankments were protected by rocks, put in place by cranes (special placement method). This method may also yield long-term cost savings through greater durability and smaller repair requirements. Special rock placement has already been adopted by the Ministry of Ecology and Emergencies (MEE).
The sustainability of the works completed by the project is thought to be highly likely. The expected life of the embankments is 40-50 years. Maintenance requirements are expected to be significantly lower than for embankments previously constructed, which is a valuable contribution since budgetary funds have proved to be limited and not always immediately available, when needed.
The project has trained significant numbers of contractor personnel in improved techniques for levee construction, either through mattresses or rock placement. Many of the contractors’ staff and management have gained experience in good standards of construction work as well. There were ancillary benefits of the project for local populations in the settlements where project works were carried out. It has been estimated that about 3,000 local laborers have been involved for extended periods during construction, and the local employment for construction works under the project has been estimated at about 400 man-years.
The project has also boosted the professional expertise of members of the Kyrgyz Design Institute (KDI; the former design institute for hydraulic works during the Soviet period) and the Department of Water Resources (DWR). After the initial training by the international consultant, all designs have been prepared satisfactorily by the KDI. At the instigation of the project, the major institutional issue for the maintenance of embankments, identified at appraisal, has been addressed. A new agency, the Flood and Mudflow Protection Agency (FMPA), was set up in DWR and is now responsible for monitoring and maintenance of some 460 km of river protection embankments. This capability benefits the whole country, but particularly the south, where flooding problems are most severe.
Many of the project's achievements are beyond the original objectives set for the project. Were it not for the long implementation period (more than double than expected at appraisal), the project outcome could have been rated highly satisfactory in view of the additional benefits over and above those envisaged at appraisal and the likely sustainability of the project achievements. Taking into account the fact that the closing date was extended twice, the outcome of the project is rated satisfactory.
4.2 Outputs by components:
(a) Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of River Protection and Irrigation Infrastructure, and Establishment of a Flood Warning System (US $13.5 million estimated at appraisal; Actual financing was US $12.1 million)
Protection Levees. The project has succeeded in rehabilitating or constructing 27.4 km of river protection embankment, compared with 8.8 km of river embankment and 2.3 km of deflector spurs planned in the PAD. The project also financed the construction of a main road bridge across the Kugart River in Suzak, to replace the old one that was placed too low and would not allow the passing of the design flood. The extent of the structures repaired and/or reconstructed was thus by far superior to what was envisaged at the beginning of the project. A number of additions and changes to the original proposals in the PAD
- 6 - were made by the implementing agency and its PIU following further studies on the sites and on the local risk conditions, which determined that high population numbers were at major risk of flooding if protection works would not be rehabilitated or reconstructed (see Table below). All changes were approved by DWR’s technical board, the project's Coordination Committee (CC), and the IDA Task Team. Savings, relative to the appraisal estimate, were possible through the introduction of a more effective engineering approach, while the original cost estimates developed by government at the time of appraisal have turned out to be by far too high. In addition, tender prices have generally been very low.
River PAD (km) Actual (km) Comments Kara Darya 3.5 0.5 Agreement reached with Andijan Dam staff to provide better flood management required protection of only few of the weakest levee sections. Kara Kuldja 1.0 2.9 Detailed surveys revealed need for longer levees and some spurs to protect entire village. Tar 1.3 2.7 Need for longer levees to protect entire village. Sokh 1.0 3.7 Need for longer levees to protect entire village and surrounding agricultural lands. Yassy 2.0 2.7 Need for longer levees to protect entire village. Kugart 5.3 Works carried out under IRP were insufficient to provide full protection of Suzak Town and nearby villages. Kara Jigach 2.5 Need for flood protection of four villages was plus two identified as a priority during project tributaries implementation. Aravan Sai 7.1 River flowing through Aravan Town was identified during implementation as a danger for flooding of large sections of the town. TOTAL 8.8 27.4
Design was satisfactory in that, although simple and schematic, it provided the contractors with all the main relevant information needed to carry out the work. Local authorities were consulted during the design process. According to the local norms, design Risk Category III was assigned to populated areas, whereas Risk Category IV was assigned to irrigation structures. For Risk Category III the hydraulic calculations were performed for a design river discharge having a 3 percent annual probability of exceedance and a freeboard of 0.8 m. A verification was then carried out for the river discharge having a 0.5 percent annual probability of exceedance. The 0.8 m freeboard is rather high for flood protection works, but considering the uncertainty in long-term flood data, seems appropriate. For Risk Category IV similar hydraulic calculations were performed for probabilities of 5 percent and 1 percent respectively. Embankments were typically 3 m to 4.8 m high and lined with two layers of rock with garretting, or Reno mattresses over geotextile, and provided with an apron 6 m wide or more. The stability of the bank protection structures, as designed, is believed to be highly satisfactory, consistent with the recommendations of the international consultant and in line with the expectations of the PAD and with the requirements of the local norms. In 2002-2003 large floods occurred in some of the rivers where protection works were completed, which, at least at two different locations, reportedly came close to the 0.5 percent probability river discharge, but no damage was reported at the completed structures. Some damage occurred at locations where the construction works were still ongoing, which required contractors to redo some of the works.
- 7 - Irrigation Abstraction Structures. At PAD stage, it was envisaged that the project would carry out rehabilitation works at 16 abstraction works, commanding an irrigation area of almost 39,000 ha. The actual implementation under the project was limited to six abstraction works that were identified and two headworks that were not included in the PAD, but were identified for reconstruction using IRP funds. The total command area of the eight systems is over 34,300 ha or 88 percent of the target.
The six systems that the project financed are all rehabilitations inside the river bed and are: Zernovoi, and Katta-Tegermen (both in Jalal-Abad Oblast) and Uzgen, Atamkul, Naiman, and Savai (in Osh Oblast). The two headworks are Sokh and Shakhimardan (both in Batken Oblast). The systems that were not included are: Oktiabrski, Stari-Ukari, and Shaidan Branch (in Jalal-Abad Oblast) and Sary-Kamysh, Ylai-Talaa, and Mochan (in Osh Oblast) [all inside the river bed works]; and Masy and Shaidan Right Bank (in Jalal-Abad Oblast) and Kyrgyz-Ata and Tuya-Muyun (in Osh Oblast) [all outside the river bed works]. Thus the project did not carry out any of the outside the river bed works. These works were actually not directly related to river floods, and have been tackled by DWR and IRP as maintenance works.
The project has constructed about 3 km of intake and protection spurs or embankments, as well as other works on the abstraction works, for the six systems that were identified at appraisal. It also carried out major repairs and protection of two large headworks. Besides major concrete repair works on especially the aprons, the project financed the protection of the right and left downstream banks with either Reno mattresses, quarry rock, or concrete. The two headworks serve 13,000 ha in two of the poorest parts of the country. They are now secure against 1:100 year floods. Some damage was reported at the Shakhimardan headworks after the floods of June 2002, including partial damage to the Reno mattresses, caused by a delay in opening the Markovsky gate. The damage to the structure was repaired promptly, and the operational rules of the structure were updated. All but one of the eight contracts were completed by May 2001, in time for the 2001 irrigation season. Zernovoi Kugart was completed in October 2002. All irrigation intakes have been rehabilitated satisfactory and fulfill the goals of the project, and abstraction of water is again guaranteed, while maintenance needs have reduced considerably, including the continuous need during irrigation seasons for temporary training works to guide river water to the intakes. Gauging Stations and Warning Systems. Designs were prepared for the reconstruction of a gauging station on each of four major rivers (Kugart, Tar, Yassy, and Kara Kuldja). Each of them will be equipped with a flood warning system based on automatic water level measurements and transmission of readings by radio and E-Mail. These systems are very much needed in order to alert several villages to flood risks. In addition, new and more reliable flow measurements will allow further verification of the level of risk at each location. As part of the contract, the contractor will provide training to the Hydromet operators. The construction contract started after the 2002/03 winter and the expected completion date for all the works was July 2004, but an extension was recently made through December 2004. It was always envisaged that part of the payments for these works had to be made after the Credit closure from funds that were paid by IDA retroactively after the increase of disbursement percentages and that remained in a PIU account. Therefore payments after March 31, 2004 have been made from these funds, and it is expected that the works will be completed as planned by the end of the year. Although Ministry of Finance was not very pleased with the need for the contract extension through the end of the year, they have nevertheless given their support to the need to complete the works.
Contract Completion Delays. Many contracts suffered delays in implementation, which has been the main weakness under the project. A major reason was initially the poor counterpart financing, until IDA agreed to raise its disbursement percentage for works from 70 to 85 percent in 2001. The under-estimate of construction periods at design stage by PIU and KDI, especially related to not
- 8 - considering the need for construction work stoppages during the flood season, also affected many contracts. Other reasons for delays have been: (i) the serious floods of 2002 and 2003 which swept away or damaged some half-completed works and submerged contractors’ equipment; (ii) civil and political disturbances in Aksi, Kara Kuldja and Kadamjay Raions that disrupted several contracts; (iii) border and customs obstacles to people and freight (including especially rock and Reno mattresses) after Uzbekistan closed its borders; and (iv) a generally weak construction sector after Independence because of shortage of works, which resulted in limited capacity and experience for work planning and financing when the project started, and required contractors to work in a poorly developed insurance, legal, and banking environment.
Construction Supervision. Construction supervision has generally been adequate. The PIU employed construction managers in both Osh and Jalal-Abad Oblasts, who visited each site regularly to provide supervision and advice, and at least one resident inspector for every sub-project. Quality control consisted of a program of in-situ and laboratory tests, and visual and topographic inspections. The engineers from KDI also provided regular supervision. All sub-projects were registered in the oblast offices of the State Architecture Construction Control Agency prior to the start of construction and its staff provided supervision as well.
Construction was accomplished according to acceptable standards. In very few cases an excess of small stones was observed in the rock protection, but in general the special placement of stones was performed adequately. The Reno mattresses have generally been well built, filled by hand, and connected to each other, and although the contractors did not have previous experience in this kind of work, no specific problems were reported by them or by the PIU. In addition to routine inspection, materials testing and supervision, training was given to those contractors who needed it and exchange site visits were also arranged.
Environmental Aspects. Rock and gabion protection have valuable characteristics regarding the environment. They maintain the original permeability of the natural material of the river, do not induce the formation of ponding water under the structure, and have no negative effect on shallow aquifers. The structures are easily integrated into the river ecology and surrounding landscape and are thus aesthetically acceptable.
Technicians from the oblast offices of the Ministry of Environment and Emergency made regular visits to the construction sites to inspect the contractor’s performance in adhering to the environmental conditions specified in the contract. In addition, the contractors were obliged to keep records in accordance with Government regulations. The requirements are perceived as rigorous, and there has been adequate environmental monitoring of construction activities and there are no negative impacts of the project on the environment.
This component is rated satisfactory.
(b) Project Management and Implementation Support (US $0.7 million estimated at appraisal; Actual financing was US $0.60 million)
The project used an existing Project Implementation Unit that had been established for the implementation of the Irrigation Rehabilitation Project. Under this component, the PIU was fully staffed in accordance with the DCA, comprising up to 13 members during the peak period of the project when most sub-projects were under construction, mainly working in the field on construction supervision. Adequate vehicles and equipment were purchased for PIU operations. Some funds were used to purchase computers
- 9 - and vehicles for the Flood and Mudflow Protection Agency. Technical assistance and training did not have to be financed by IDA to the extent envisaged under the PAD. The Austrian Grant financed a short-term international consultant to assist with the design of protection works with Reno mattresses and special placing of rocks. The Kyrgyz Design Institute was responsible for the investigations, surveys, and designs of all sub-projects, and the river gauging stations and early warning systems. There was no perceived need for modelling studies. A study tour to Italy took place during the last year of project implementation.
The Ministry of Finance has been critical at times that the PIU was implementing the project too slowly. There is some truth in this, but as indicated this was to a large extent caused by the relatively weak local contracting industry, and under-estimation of the implementation periods by the design engineers. Many contractors took longer than envisaged to complete contracts, but the end result has always been fully satisfactory and quality works. Overall, project management was effective and achieved at modest cost. This component is also rated satisfactory.
4.3 Net Present Value/Economic rate of return:
The PAD included neither an evaluation of the expected cost-effectiveness of river embankments nor cost-effectiveness indicators for monitoring. Instead, alternative engineering options for each sub-project were costed and compared, before a decision was made on the option to be implemented for a particular sub-project.
The average cost of protection per household under FEP is about US $1,600 compared with an estimated cost of resettlement in new housing of US $5-6,000 per household. For two sub-projects the embankment cost exceeded resettlement costs, but the additional cost could be justified by the protection afforded to commercial/industrial and water supply infrastructure and important road access. The cost per household at two protected settlements was well under US $1,000.
The Ministry of Ecology and Emergencies (MEE) and FMPA have both carried out embankment strengthening with rock at lower cost than FEP, using designs which use smaller quantities of rock (MEE reckons that their process uses 24 percent less rock than FEP). Not enough time has passed to carry out a detailed comparison of expected cost-effectiveness over time. Both MEE and FMPA acknowledge that embankments rebuilt to their designs will not last as long as those constructed by FEP. Also, both organizations expect their own constructions to require more maintenance. In addition, such embankments may provide a lesser level of security. Total cost comparisons between FEP and MEE embankments indicate that, at a discount rate of 10 percent, annualized investment and maintenance costs could be similar for MEE and FEP embankments (see Annex 3). It is recommended that the situation is monitored and that a thorough evaluation of different standards of embankment construction is carried out after 10 years or so. The issue of value-for-money protection merits further investigation, particularly since the protection of settlements depends on the extent as well as the quality of the embankments which can be afforded.
The PAD calculated EIRRs for three of the planned irrigation schemes, giving results of 21 percent for the smallest to 104 percent for the largest. Assumptions made were that yields would rise on average 20 percent as a result of the project. There has been no monitoring of yield levels or detailed recording of water deliveries on any of the schemes and hence no objective assessment of benefits can be made beyond the saving of costs for river training. The net present value of these costs is estimated at US $0.55 million against a capital cost of works of slightly over US $2 million. The remaining capital cost of US $57 per ha would be covered by an annual yield increase of only 1 to 2 percent. As this is certainly the case, it is deduced that increased reliability of water supply will have generated a value of benefits exceeding by far
- 10 - the costs of the works.
4.4 Financial rate of return:
The PAD included no financial analysis beyond general statements on maintenance requirements. Financially, as economically, the net benefits of FEP depend upon the eventual performance of the embankments. However, the repayment conditions of the IDA Credit are such that trading higher initial capital investment costs against lower maintenance requirements in future is beneficial to GOK.
4.5 Institutional development impact:
The main institutional development impact of the project has come from the establishment of the Flood and Mudflow Protection Agency in the DWR (formal establishment through Order No. 1 of February 6, 2000), and skills enhancement in KDI, PIU, and of contractor managers and staff. The project has also fostered local manufacturing capacity for Reno mattresses.
FMPA, at the instigation of FEP, carried out an inventory, and now maintains a database, of all river embankments (460 km) in the rural areas of the country with an assessment of their state of repair and maintenance requirements. It has a headquarters in Bishkek, but the bulk of its work is concentrated in the 3 southern oblasts which have also benefited from FEP. By the end of 2003, it had some 112 staff, including engineers and inspectors stationed at oblast and raion centers, of whom about 70 are stationed in the south. Its responsibilities are for inspection and maintenance of all rural river embankments, including the embankments built under FEP (in raion centers and rural areas) once they are out of contractor’s guarantee period. FEP has specified new standards for monitoring and maintenance procedures (according to need and design) which have been adopted by FMPA. FEP also supported FMPA with computers and vehicles. FMPA’s budget remains low, but has doubled gradually to KGS 40 million during the past three years. It has no significant construction equipment of its own and relies on other units in DWR and private contractors.
The division of responsibilities between FMPA and MEE for embankment works was defined by Government Regulation No. 597 of 1999. FMPA is responsible for levees that protect rural settlements and crop lands. MEE remains responsible for repair and maintenance of embankments protecting mainly larger settlements which have not been handed over to FMPA. Structures designed for protection of towns, motor and railway roads, power transmission lines, and transformer substations are maintained by the respective ministries and administrations. Despite the Regulation, there was not always a clear common understanding of the responsibilities, which has, however, gradually improved over the years, as the FMPA has matured.
An international consultant familiarized PIU and KDI with the design and construction of river bank protection by means of special stone placement and Reno mattresses, both simple and effective technologies for Kyrgyzstan. PIU has also acquired additional expertise in managing and supervising a project with scattered activities, carried out by relatively inexperienced local contractors. FEP has provided the local contracting industry in the south with opportunities to keep machinery and manpower at paid work, which they would otherwise find hard to secure. Contractors have learned a considerable amount in terms of technical skills as well as gaining additional experience in contractual and organizational matters. They performed well under difficult circumstances. However, low contract prices, which boosted project outputs, have combined with various adverse circumstances allowed very few contractors to substantially improve their financial status. Two local manufacturers established a capacity for manual production of Reno mattresses, which has boosted local employment.
- 11 - 5. Major Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcome 5.1 Factors outside the control of government or implementing agency:
· The exceptional flash flood of 2002 and 2003 which swept away or damaged some half-completed works and submerged contractors’ equipment, causing long delays in the completion of several sub-projects. This happened despite numerous discussions between supervision missions and contractors and guidelines and letters written by the PIU. The floods of 2003 started very early and required an unexpected second, six-month extension of the project; · Civil and political disturbances occurred in Aksi, Kara Kuldja, and Kadamjay Raions. These disrupted works in the Kara Jigach area, delayed rock blasting in Kara Kuldja, and hindered work on the Sokh River, again causing delays in the completion of several contracts; · Border and customs obstacles to people and freight (including especially rock) passing through Uzbekistan. The border closures imposed by the Uzbeks shut of the economic routes from a number of rock quarries to sub-project sites and increased considerably the transport distance; · Generally weak construction sector with limited capacity and experience for work planning and financing. Very few projects were implemented during the eight years of Independence, which kept almost all local contractors idle; and · Provision of Austrian Grant funds to purchase significant quantities of Reno mattresses along with technical assistance for their application. This grant resulted in a quick breakthrough of the acceptance of new construction materials.
5.2 Factors generally subject to government control:
· The appointment by GOK of experienced managers/engineers to key posts in the PIU, both at central and field level, and the maintenance of these staff in their posts; and · Inadequate counterpart funding through 2001 caused delay in implementation and significant arrears of payments to contractors. IDA’s agreement to increase the percentage of financing of construction works from 70 percent to 85 percent retroactive to January 2000 resolved the counterpart funding bottleneck in early 2002.
5.3 Factors generally subject to implementing agency control:
· The choice of competent local consultants for design and supervision, and their willingness to collaborate closely with short-term international consultants, proved important to project success; · Good commitment of project staff to their work; · A generally cooperative approach to resolving contractors’ difficulties, especially lenience with extension of contracts without imposing penalties, eased project implementation; · Deletion of force majeure clauses and certain aspects of financial provisions in several contracts, worked against contractors’ interests, as they did not have a contractual right to claim for compensation in force majeure situations; · Delays in proceeding with design and contracting of river gauging stations, caused largely by uncertainties of IDA resource availability (PIU had to first identify possible Variation Orders for ongoing contracts, and substantial SDR/US $ exchange rate fluctuations), resulted in this sub-component remaining incomplete at project closing. However, government is interested in completing these important works and is using the retroactively paid funds to complete the works; and · Slow progress with study tours resulted in delayed impact on staff resources.
- 12 - 5.4 Costs and financing:
The PAD estimated total project costs, including contingencies, at US $14.1 million over 2 years, of which US $10 million was to be financed by IDA. Total project costs over 4.5 years are expected to amount to almost US $12.70 million. The IDA credit was completely disbursed by early 2004 and amounted to US $9.55 million, the shortfall being due to the SDR exchange rate devaluation over the project period. An additional Austrian Shilling 12 million (approximately US $0.75 million equivalent) was contributed to the project through an Austrian Grant Fund. Government contributed about US $2.4 million, of which US $1.69 million in VAT offsets, US $0.51 million in kind (fuel and flour) and other tax offsets, and US $0.20 million in cash. GOK’s total required contribution to project financing was significantly reduced by the increase in eligibility for IDA financing of civil works (from 70 percent to 85 percent) made in 2002, but retroactive to January 2000, to allow for outstanding payments to contractors.
Construction of a unit length of protection levees was completed at lower cost than anticipated at appraisal. In addition, the provision of Reno mattresses through the Austrian grant reduced the cost to the project of river embankment works at Myrza Aky and Tar. This allowed a much higher output (length of levees) than estimated at appraisal. The cost of the gauging stations was more than twice that anticipated, but the end result should provide warning systems on four rivers, rather than just on the Kugart, as was envisaged at appraisal.
Disbursement was rather slow during the early years of implementation, initially because of delays in tendering, but mainly because of poor counterpart financing. The original disbursement schedule also failed to allow for construction work stoppages during the flood season. Delays were also caused by local security problems which disrupted construction works. The revisions to disbursement forecasts made at the Mid-Term Review have proved to be quite accurate.
Until 2001, counterpart financing was channeled through MEE which resulted in delays in receipt of funds allocated. This, together with inadequate allocations, resulted in arrears to contractors of more than KGS 20 million (US $0.5 million) by 2002. Shortages of cash resulted in some 7 contractors being paid in terms of fuel, construction materials, flour, and other commodities through special agreements concluded between PIU and Ministry of Finance, and with the assent of contractors themselves. Such payment in kind occurred especially in 2001, but a few cases continued through September 2003.
Most contractors found themselves disadvantaged by the terms of their contracts, or the application of those terms. None have been paid interest on late payments by PIU. None have received compensation events for floods, civil disturbance, border closure, etc. The one tool for alleviating their misadventure has been to grant extension to contracts, whose term in any event did not originally properly allow for the need to halt work during flood periods. Contract terms did not allow for full compensation for hikes in local unit prices, as price variation clauses were not generally made applicable because original contracts were less than 18 months.
6. Sustainability 6.1 Rationale for sustainability rating:
The embankments constructed under FEP are expected to be durable. The good quality and placing of the rock should ensure a long operational life, provided that prompt maintenance is carried out, where needed. Experience with Reno mattresses around the world shows that this kind of river bank protection can last for several decades without major damage. A row of relatively large stones was placed
- 13 - at the bottom of the protected slope in order to mitigate the effects of abrasion by the solid transported materials. To date, it is encouraging that hardly any damage has occurred, despite high speed flows in rivers. There has been no evidence of vandalism or theft of mesh from the mattresses. Also FMPA is well-staffed with engineers and inspectors who are trained to carry out maintenance and are already monitoring and carrying out minor repairs to embankments under their responsibility. Hydromet, which is to take over possession and management of the river gauging stations and flood warning systems, has staff in place for their operation, and are being trained by the contractor. Institutional development and advances in techniques under the project are irreversible.
Continuous monitoring of the works will have to be carried out. As the works have been constructed well, maintenance requirements of the levees constructed under the project are expected to be very modest, and FMPA should be able to cover these from its maintenance budget. The inventory of all protection levees in the country will enable the FMPA to implement an asset management plan and direct most of the limited maintenance funds to the most needy areas.
All in all, the overall sustainability is rated highly likely.
6.2 Transition arrangement to regular operations:
River protection embankments constructed under the project were transferred to FMPA (along with as-built drawings) once the contractor guarantee period of one year was completed. The raion irrigation offices of DWR have already taken over responsibility for the intake spurs and other irrigation infrastructure. FEP has specified new standards for monitoring and maintenance procedures (according to need and design) which have been adopted by FMPA. A system of regular inspections has already been established. Reno mattresses require prompt repair when breakage or severe erosion of the wire mesh is observed. The wire mesh adopted for patches or for the replacement mattresses must comply with the design specifications. The maintenance requirements for quarry stone protection involve prompt replacement of the stones displaced by the flood and repair of the filter layer where required. The quality and the size of the replacement stones must comply with the design specifications. Mattresses will be fixed directly by FMPA staff who would typically construct the wire patches manually. The necessary tools have been procured from the Austrian grant funds. For quarry stone protection, a contractor with the necessary equipment will be called in, or other units of DWR with the required machinery (truck and crane) can be used.
With a view to optimizing future investment in river protection embankments, it is important that the performance of embankments of different design characteristics, including records of damage and repair costs, are monitored and compared. FMPA’s monitoring process will provide the basic information required to make such a comparison. It is suggested that an appropriate time for the government to evaluate the long-term outcome of the project would be around 2013-2015, when there will have been an opportunity to verify the durability and maintenance requirements of the infrastructure works.
- 14 - 7. Bank and Borrower Performance Bank 7.1 Lending:
The Association responded quickly and appropriately to GOK’s request for assistance following the 1998 floods by reallocating up to US $4 million of its on-going IRP to post-flood works and by processing FEP between July 1998 (identification) and January 1999 (signature of DCA). There was good cooperation with the ADB and appropriate division of work. There were some shortcomings in the PAD (see paragraph 3.5 above), but overall IDA’s lending performance is rated satisfactory.
7.2 Supervision:
Supervision missions were regular, normally conducted in association with supervision and/or preparation missions for IRP and/or OIP. The missions were small, typically with 2-4 members and lasted about 2 weeks in general. The MTR was carried out in June 2000, just after one year into the project. Reporting was regular, clear, and accurate, although final, management-approved Aide Memoires were occasionally delivered with some delay to the Borrower, mainly due to long translation periods. There were 11 supervision missions in total (following a brief launch mission and including a final supervision in conjunction with the ICR mission). Engineering and procurement expertise was always represented. There was great consistency in the personnel who formed the missions, yet three different engineers (including the TTL) with specialized knowledge and wide experience were involved, all of whom provided valuable and constructive contributions. Great attention was paid to planning the most effective use of project resources. It is likely that better evaluation of impact and cost-effectiveness could have been achieved if an economist/M&E specialist had been included in the MTR team. Responses to correspondence from PIU were most often clear, sound, and rapid. Requests for contract extensions were given full, and sympathetic, consideration and acceded to when in the best interests of the project performance.
There was regular supervision of the 1-C accounting system and of financial management, as well as financial and procurement reviews. Routine back-up support from the local Bank office in procurement and finance was appreciated by the PIU. Disbursement personnel were responsive to PIU’s needs. Two courses were mounted in Bishkek for contractors in bidding/contract procedures by the region’s procurement branch. Not all potential contractors attended - more complete coverage might have been achieved if one of the courses had been held in the south - and more training would have been beneficial. The one and only complaint by a contractor was addressed correctly and effectively.
7.3 Overall Bank performance:
Overall, IDA's supervision performance is rated highly satisfactory.
Borrower 7.4 Preparation:
The Borrower's performance in lending is assessed as satisfactory. There was close cooperation and involvement at the time of preparation between various ministries in government and the Association. The Borrower made major contributions to project preparation, even commissioning design work in advance of appraisal.
- 15 - 7.5 Government implementation performance:
GOK provided good support to the project although it was unable to provide the full amount of counterpart funds required, partly caused by the impact of the Russia crisis on the economy. Shortages of counterpart funds were exacerbated in the early years by blockages in MEE, but proper steps were taken to resolve this problem in later years. To mitigate the lack of counterpart funds, contractors were paid in kind from government stocks of fuel and other goods. The inter-ministerial Coordination Committee (CC) did not meet as frequently as required towards the end of the project, but by this time most strategic decisions of sub-project selection had already been made and the Technical Board of the project, comprising members from DWR, MEE, KDI, Hydromet, and chaired by Deputy Minister of MOAWRPI in charge of DWR, always met to review and approve each sub-project.
7.6 Implementing Agency:
The Borrower performed well in terms of practical management of the project. There was outstanding commitment to ensuring implementation of project works. There were regular site inspections and construction supervision was effective. Delays were mostly caused by exogenous factors and lack of counterpart funds. Progress reporting was timely and provided a good basis for monitoring project progress. Surveys were conducted to discover local attitudes to, and assessment of damage and disturbance caused by flooding. An evaluation report, covering most sub-projects was completed in December 2003, providing valuable information for the ICR mission.
Covenants were all fulfilled, although there was delay in submission of some agreed studies and their quality was not always of the highest standard. One audit report was qualified because funds had been improperly paid out of the Special Account to the Ministry of Finance, even though it was noted that the money had almost immediately been repaid. (This was a country-wide portfolio problem, and the PIU could not be faulted for this as they responded to an official instruction from MOF.)
Overall, procurement was effective and well-recorded. Apart from 7 Small Works contracts early in project implementation, most procurement was conducted under NCB procedures. The competition for the FEP contracts has been large, with a total of 103 contractors participating in the bidding of 24 contracts (17 NCB and 7 MW). The 24 contracts were awarded to 13 different contractors. Normally procurement was prompt. In some cases insufficient notice of tender was given by PIU. There were also some imperfections on the part of the PIU in judging the qualification of bidders and in documentation. Because some successful bidders proved to have insufficient capacity or resources, qualification criteria were tightened over the course of the project.
7.7 Overall Borrower performance:
On balance, the ICR team concludes that Borrower performance was satisfactory.
8. Lessons Learned Projects can yield benefits beyond those expected at appraisal. In this case, flexibility of project design, accompanied by good resource planning, sound engineering design, and effective management for implementation, produced very good results. What was planned as an emergency recovery project has enhanced not only the nation’s long-term infrastructural assets, but also its stock of engineering and contracting expertise and has provided significant short-term employment.
Contractors in ex-Soviet environments still face difficulties in adjusting to Bank-style construction
- 16 - contracts with Government. Since these difficulties could jeopardize achievement of project objectives, substantial efforts are called for – on all sides – to understand as fully as possible, and find solutions to, problems arising. A very high proportion of project funds in infrastructure projects are channelled to contractors (in the case of FEP about 90 percent), and although private sector development is not a specific objective of such projects, the impact of these projects on the contracting industry could be substantial, not only in the short term, but also on the shape of long-term development. For both these reasons, it would be in the Bank’s interest to investigate the impact of project contracts on the contracting industry in Kyrgyzstan, perhaps in the context of a wider study.
Timely project implementation depends on good project planning. In this case, the time-frames of both sub-project contracts and the project itself were bound to be extended because no proper account was taken of the need to halt works during the flood season. The sequence of construction works should also be carefully planned by contractors so that, when floods are likely to occur, most works are in a state capable of withstanding them.
Simple technologies and design approaches which are new for the borrowing country can be successfully introduced, and adopted by relatively inexperienced contractors if the necessary support of international experts, along with effective local support, is provided.
Import of working quantities of new products can demonstrate the effectiveness of new technologies and provide the key to their acceptance on a wider scale, as well as a guide and comparative gauge for local manufacture.
Training (especially on-the-job) is critical in order to obtain overall satisfactory results and to provide a relatively homogeneous quality level throughout similar sub-projects.
Kyrgyz norms for flood relief works (including calculation of flood return periods and associated evaluation of benefits) remain intact since Soviet times. In view of constraints on resources for investment in infrastructure, and the apparent rising frequency of large flood flows, it would be advisable, in due course, to review the effectiveness of norms and methodologies in light of current data constraints and available alternative methodologies for assessing damage and risk, and to establish a strategy to guide future investment decisions.
9. Partner Comments (a) Borrower/implementing agency: (Letter from the Minister of Agriculture, Water Resources, and Processing Industry, dated June 17, 2004, addressed to the Country Manager in Bishkek). We appreciate your providing the draft of the Implementation Completion Report for the Flood Emergency Project. In fact one of the major and significant projects is completed; it has a great importance for the country in terms of the populations, irrigated areas and social infrastructure protection from natural disasters. The document submitted for consideration reflects the stages of the activities implemented to liquidate the aftermath of the floods occurred in 1998. It should be noted that the World Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) did not include this Project, and it is an example of the constructive response to the national calamity caused by the flood that occurred after the discussion of the CAS. The Report objectively reflects both positive aspects and problematic issues being arisen in the course of the project
- 17 - implementation.
Indeed the Project achieved its objectives: by virtue of improvement of the embankment protection and the irrigation system rehabilitation certain danger of floods was eliminated for the three Rayon Centers and 24 settlements with the population of 100,000 people; and supply of irrigation water to the farms with the total command area of almost 34,500 hectares in the Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken Oblasts resumed.
Design modes were improved and construction of levees using the Reno mattresses, geo-textile, and rip-rap (rock) started. Two local firms (Jalal-Abad Trade Equipment Factory and JSC Dustlik) organized production of Reno mattresses to substitute the imported ones. It also contributes to the employment rate in the area and development of the local industry. Contractors gained experience in quality execution of works and came to know international and local standards and technical specifications.
During the project implementation, design and construction environment protection issues were given due attention. The environmental impact of the construction works was taken into account at the design stage, along with reinstatement of the river and canal regimes, avoiding any detriment to the environment. River natural regime, existing before the damage, was reinstated, the gabion constructions organically blended with the local landscape due to vegetation they got covered with. It is possible to accelerate this process if gabions are artificially covered with soil to be followed with grass and shrubs planting.
Examination in 2003 of the completed in 1999-2000 sub-projects proved their good technical condition, lack of deformations and damages. It was also defined that different components of the levees and irrigation schemes comply with the technical specifications envisaged by the projects. This is the evidence of high quality work that was executed.
In compliance with the Credit Agreement the specialized Mud Flow Projection Department was established. This Department examined the existing flood protection infrastructure and defined needs in maintenance and perspective goals. The set up Interdepartmental Steering Committee composed of the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance, Goscominvest, Ministry of Emergencies and Ecology, State Administrations of the Osh, Jalal-Abad Oblasts and the Prime-Minister’s Office has been working out joint approaches to resolution of the problems arising during the Project implementation.
IDA closely supervised the Project implementation and purposeful utilization of both Credit and Budget resources under the Project. The reasons hampering the Project execution were identified, and recommendations on resolution of the arising problems both in the Project and at the interdepartmental level were developed. The World Bank used to regularly inform the respective state bodies of the country on the outcomes of the supervisions conducted. Thanks to Mr. J. Stoutjesdijk’s technical, political and overall competence, his communication skills the Project was successfully completed. The Government of the Kyrgyz Republic highly appreciated the contribution made by Mr. Stoutjesdijk in implementation of the Flood Emergency Project, Irrigation Rehabilitation Project, and On Farm Irrigation Project. Mr. Stoutjesdijk was awarded with a Diploma of the Kyrgyz Republic.
IDA assessment of the Project is satisfactory, although on the side of the Borrower there were some deficiencies. Given hard economic situation in the country counterpart financing was not regular at the beginning of the Project. The restraining factors for the Project were lack of experience in design and construction of protection structures using the Reno mattresses, organization of procurement given the international standards, and signing of contacts neglecting the flood periods at the rivers where rehabilitation works were scheduled. Lessons learnt during bidding issued for procurement of these works,
- 18 - in terms of organization of works in river beds in the shortest time possible, sanctioning of contractors, not meeting the contract terms without objective reasons will be accounted by future projects.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Processing Industry of the Kyrgyz Republic believes it possible to submit the Implementation Completion Report for the Flood Emergency Project for consideration of the IDA Board of Directors.
(b) Cofinanciers:
Information about the Austrian Grant has been incorporated in the text of the report. (c) Other partners (NGOs/private sector):
N/A.
10. Additional Information None.
- 19 - Annex 1. Key Performance Indicators/Log Frame Matrix
Outcome / Impact Indicators: 1 Indicator/Matrix Projected in last PSR Actual/Latest Estimate Identified flood hazards removed for 25 Flood hazards removed for 25 villages, 24 villages and 3 district centers have been villages. utilizing improved designs and durable provided with durable flood protection to local construction methods. 38,000 people standards, against a 1 in 200 year flood. protected. Number of people protected directly in the flood zones are 42,000, while another 70,000 people benefit indirectly through protection of public infrastructure.
Irrigation infrastructure returned to fully 39,000 ha. Headworks and intakes for 34,350 ha operational condition - timely and adequate returned to fully operable condition, allowing delivery of irrigation water to the command timely and adequate supply of water. areas of irrigation headworks that were destroyed or damaged during the 1998 floods.
Employment. Not included. > 400 man years.
New cost-effective construction methods Partially anticipated. Full acceptance of new embankment instituted. construction methods and replication with potential for major cost savings over future years. Note: Data given in middle column are the estimates at appraisal, rather than the last PSR. Actual/latest estimates coincide with the information given in the last PSR. Output Indicators: 1 Indicator/Matrix Projected in last PSR Actual/Latest Estimate 1.1 River protection works returned to 8.8 km along 5 rivers; 27.4 km along 8 rivers. operational condition - repair or 23 spurs of about 100 m length each. reconstruction of (a) river embankments; and (b) deflector spurs.
1.2 Repair or reconstruction of intake works, 16 schemes, including: 8 schemes, including: head regulators and conveyance canal 10 intake spurs (930 m), 2.9 km intake and protection works, protection (a) inside river beds; and (b) 3 protective spurs (900 m), canal cleaning (one scheme), outside river beds. canal embankment repairs (6 km), 2 sluice regulators and 1 turnout, 3 head regulators. 2 major headworks.
1.3 (a) Reconstruction of river gauging (a) US $150,000 on four major rivers; (b) US Reconstruction of gauging stations and stations; and (b) installation of one flood $50,000 on Kugart. construction of flood warning systems on four warning system. rivers, including the Kugart (US $610,000).
2.1 National government staff and Improved knowledge and experience. Staff and local consultants have improved consultants have improved knowledge and knowledge and experience of designing experience in designing applicable solutions appropriate solutions for river protection and for river protection and irrigation irrigation infrastructure. infrastructure.
National government staff and consultants Three senior PIU staff, 11 inspectors, and 5 6 PIU staff, 7 inspectors, and 10 design are equipped to adequately supervise and design engineers trained. engineers fully trained. implement the technical aspects of the project.
Implementation support. Salaries (US $59,000); Office equipment Salaries (US $170,000); 6 vehicles, 11 and vehicles (US $56,000); Consultancies computers and printers, small office and field and Studies (US$460,000); Study Tour equipment (US $96,000); Consultancies (US (US$34,000). $154,000); and Study Tour (US $34,000).
1 End of project
- 20 - Annex 2. Project Costs and Financing
Project Cost by Component (in US$ million equivalent) Appraisal Actual/Latest Percentage of Estimate Estimate Appraisal Component US$ million US$ million A. Rehabilitation of Infrastructure and Flood Warning System
A.1 River embankments 9.00 8.54 95 A.2 Deflector spurs 1.70 A.3 Irrigation infrastructure (inside river bed) 2.30 2.19 95 A.4 Irrigation infrastructure (outside river bed 0.20 A.5 River gauging stations and flood warning 0.20 0.61 305 Systems B. Project Management and Implementation 0.70 0.60 86 Support
Austrian Grant 0.75 Total Baseline Cost 14.10 12.69 Total Project Costs 14.10 12.69 Total Financing Required 14.10 12.69
Project Costs by Procurement Arrangements (Appraisal Estimate) (US$ million equivalent) 1 Procurement Method Expenditure Category ICB 2 N.B.F. Total Cost NCB Other 1. Works 0.00 12.20 1.30 0.00 13.50 (0.00) (8.50) (0.90) (0.00) (9.40) 2. Goods 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 (0.00) (0.00) (0.10) (0.00) (0.10) 3. Services 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.50 (0.00) (0.00) (0.50) (0.00) (0.50) 4. Miscellaneous 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 5. Miscellaneous 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 6. Miscellaneous 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Total 0.00 12.20 1.90 0.10 14.20 (0.00) (8.50) (1.50) (0.00) (10.00)
- 21 - Project Costs by Procurement Arrangements (Actual/Latest Estimate) (US$ million equivalent) 1 Procurement Method Expenditure Category ICB 2 N.B.F. Total Cost NCB Other 1. Works 0.00 10.50 0.90 0.00 11.40 (0.00) (8.40) (0.60) (0.00) (9.00) 2. Goods 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.71 0.81 (0.00) (0.00) (0.10) (0.00) (0.10) 3. Services 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.03 0.48 (0.00) (0.00) (0.45) (0.00) (0.45) 4. Miscellaneous 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 5. Miscellaneous 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 6. Miscellaneous 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Total 0.00 10.50 1.45 0.74 12.69 (0.00) (8.40) (1.15) (0.00) (9.55)
1/ Figures in parenthesis are the amounts to be financed by the IDA Credit. All costs include contingencies. 2/ Includes civil works and goods to be procured through national shopping, consulting services, services of contracted staff of the project management office, training, technical assistance services, and incremental operating costs related to (i) managing the project, and (ii) re-lending project funds to local government units.
Project Financing by Category (in US$ million equivalent) Percentage of Appraisal Category Appraisal Estimate Actual/Latest Estimate IDA Govt. CoF. IDA Govt. CoF. IDA Govt. CoF. Works 9.40 4.10 9.00 2.38 95.7 58.0 (a) River Protection 7.30 1.77 Infrastructure (b) Irrigation 1.65 0.54 Infrastructure Goods 0.10 0.10 0.71 100.0 Consultants Services and 0.50 0.45 0.09 0.03 90.0 Training Miscellaneous 0.10 0.00 0.0 Total 10.10 4.10 9.55 2.40 0.74 94.6 58.5
- 22 - Annex 3. Economic Costs and Benefits Irrigation Systems
The PAD calculated EIRRs for three of the 16 planned irrigation schemes, giving results of 21 percent for the smallest to 104 percent for the largest. Assumptions made were that yields would rise on average 20 percent as a result of the project. There has been no monitoring of yield levels or detailed recording of water deliveries on any of the 8 irrigation schemes rehabilitated by FEP and hence no objective assessment of benefits can be made beyond the saving of costs for river training. The net present value of these costs is estimated at US $0.55 million against a total capital cost of works of US $2.05 million. The remaining capital cost of US $57 per ha would be covered by an annual yield increase of only 1-2 percent. From interviews with several farmers it is clear that there is satisfaction with the secure water supply and that the yield have increased much more than the required 1-2 percent. From this, it is deduced that increased reliability of water supply will have generated a value of benefits exceeding the costs of the works.
Cost-Effectiveness of River Embankments
The average cost of protection per household under FEP is about US $1,600 compared with an estimated cost of resettlement in new housing of US $5-6,000. For the sub-projects at Sokh and Kara Kuldja, the embankment cost was US $0.3-US $0.4 million greater than total resettlement costs for households. At Kara Kuldja, this additional cost could be justified by the additional industrial and water infrastructure which was protected and, at Sokh by the protection afforded to an important road access. The cost per household at Aravan and Kara Suu/Kara Jigach was much lower than the average (see also Annex 11). Once a decision was made that it was imperative to protect certain settlements, FEP compared several alternative engineering solutions, selecting from these the solution with lowest capital investment costs, choosing Reno mattresses where costs of delivering rock for embankment lining would be higher.
MEE and FMPA have both carried out embankment strengthening with rock at lower cost than FEP, using designs which use smaller quantities of rock than the FEP rock-based designs. Both acknowledge that their own design solutions will not last as long as those of FEP. They also expect that their constructions will require more substantial maintenance.
Detailed costs and designs of MEE were not available to the ICR mission, but some exploratory calculations were undertaken to explore possible scenarios, combining various combinations of life expectancy and maintenance cost as shown in the table below. The cost of MEE embankments is reckoned by them to be 70 percent of that of FEP embankments. The first part of the table based on an index of 100 thus represents FEP embankments and the second part based on an index of 70 represents MEE embankments.
MEE estimates that FEP embankments will last in excess of 50 years. It is expected that FEP embankments may require annual repairs equivalent to 1 percent or maximum 2 percent of capital cost, whereas MEE/FMPA traditional embankments may require annual repairs up to 5 percent of capital cost per year. The results are quite close and the MEE embankments might prove more cost-effective over time, even if they last a shorter period, if maintenance costs can be kept to 3 percent or less of capital cost per year. Maintenance costs have not yet been verified for either alternative: the current MEE design (with garretting) has not been used until quite recently. Also, not enough time has passed since the construction of the FEP-financed protection works to carry out a detailed comparison of cost-effectiveness over time. It is therefore recommended that maintenance costs are monitored and that a thorough evaluation of different
- 23 - standards of embankment construction is carried out after 10 years or so. As timely and adequate maintenance of all flood protection works in the country is not yet guaranteed, due to limited available budgets, it is likely that the more durable structures built under FEP are providing a longer and more sustainable protection.
Capital Cost = 100 Units Life years: 50 30 15 Maintenance costs %/year NPV @ 10% 1 100 105 2 109 114 3 118 123 4 127 132 5 136 140
Capital Cost = 70 Units Life years: 50 30 15 Maintenance costs %/year NPV @ 10% 1 76 90 2 85 98 3 94 107 4 103 116 5 112 125
- 24 - Annex 4. Bank Inputs (a) Missions: Stage of Project Cycle No. of Persons and Specialty Performance Rating (e.g. 2 Economists, 1 FMS, etc.) Implementation Development Month/Year Count Specialty Progress Objective Identification/Preparation 07/08/1998 2 ENGINEER (2)
Appraisal/Negotiation 09/08/1998 3 ENGINEER (2); OPERATIONS OFFICER (1) 12/07/1998 5 TASK TEAM LEADER/ ENGINEER (1); OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); COUNSEL (1); DISBURSEMENT OFFICER (1); PROCUREMENT SPECIALIST (1); Supervision 05/31/1999 2 TASK TEAM LEADER/ENGINEER (1); OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); 09/01/1999 2 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1) 02/25/2000 4 TTL/ENGINEER (1); SECTOR S S MANAGER (1); OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); PROCUREMENT ANALYST (1) 06/17/2000 4 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); ENGINEER (2); 12/04/2000 2 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); 06/13/2001 4 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); ENGINEER (1); PROCUREMENT OFFICER (1); 12/13/2001 5 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (2); PROGRAM ASSISTANT (1); RIVER ENGINEER (1); 06/18/2002 3 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); RIVER ENGINEER (1); 11/25/2002 6 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1);
- 25 - RIVER ENGINEER (1); PROGRAM ASSISTANT (1); FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT (1); PROCUREMENT OFFICER (1); 08/09/2003 6 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S PROGRAM ASSISTANT (1); JPA (1); ENGINEER (1); FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT (1); PROCUREMENT (1); 01/26/2004 3 TTL/ENGINEER (1); S S OPERATIONS OFFICER (1); PROGRAM ASSISTANT (1); ICR 01/26/2004 2 ECONOMIST (1); S S ENGINEER (1)
(b) Staff:
Stage of Project Cycle Actual/Latest Estimate No. Staff weeks US$ ('000) Identification/Preparation 88 Appraisal/Negotiation Supervision 54 431 ICR 7 38 Total 557 Preparation budget includes appraisal/negotiations. Supervision budget includes BB - US $384,000; FAO Investment Center - US $29,000; and CTF Italy - US $18,000.
- 26 - Annex 5. Ratings for Achievement of Objectives/Outputs of Components (H=High, SU=Substantial, M=Modest, N=Negligible, NA=Not Applicable) Rating Macro policies H SU M N NA Sector Policies H SU M N NA Physical H SU M N NA Financial H SU M N NA Institutional Development H SU M N NA Environmental H SU M N NA
Social Poverty Reduction H SU M N NA Gender H SU M N NA Other (Please specify) H SU M N NA Private sector development H SU M N NA Public sector management H SU M N NA Other (Please specify) H SU M N NA
- 27 - Annex 6. Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (HS=Highly Satisfactory, S=Satisfactory, U=Unsatisfactory, HU=Highly Unsatisfactory)
6.1 Bank performance Rating Lending HS S U HU Supervision HS S U HU Overall HS S U HU
6.2 Borrower performance Rating Preparation HS S U HU Government implementation performance HS S U HU Implementation agency performance HS S U HU Overall HS S U HU
- 28 - Annex 7. List of Supporting Documents Annexes to ICR
Annex 8: Studies Undertaken under Flood Emergency Project; Annex 9: Works and Studies Undertaken under Irrigation Rehabilitation Project relating to Flood Emergency Project; Annex 10: Engineering - Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Infrastructure; Annex 11: Impact of Works; and Map: Location of Sub-projects.
On File
Project Appraisal Document (December 28, 1998; Report No. 18701-KG); Agreed Minutes of Negotiations; Development Credit Agreement (January 28, 1999); IDA supervision reports, including Aide Memoires and PSRs, for every supervision mission; Aide Memoire of ICR Mission, February 12, 2004; PIU’s Project Implementation Evaluation Report, December 2003; Various Design Reports; Pictures of project works; Booklet with information and photos of sub-projects before and after reconstruction; and Letters from Borrower.
- 29 - Additional Annex 8. Studies Undertaken under the Flood Emergency Project
Design studies for all sub-projects subsequently implemented (including an assessment of design options), bidding documents, and design drawings were prepared by the Kyrgyz Design Institute, as shown in the table below. The table also includes studies for sub-projects not subsequently selected for implementation.
Social/Attitude Survey of Villages in Osh and Jalal-Abad, prepared by local consultants in 2000.
Nationwide Inventory and Assessment of Maintenance Requirements for Flood Control Structures, prepared by Flood and Mudflow Protection Agency.
Table: Design and Bidding Documents Prepared by Consultants # Sub-project (River) Design Bidding Design Comments Study1/ Document Drawings 1 Sokh Headworks NCB documents prepared in 1999 under IRP 2 Section VI; Bishkek-Osh X X X Road (Kugart) 3 Kara Darya X x X Small Works 4 Shakhimardan X X X Headworks 5 Kara Darya Addendum X Approval based on e-mails; Small Works 6 Uzgen Canal (Kara X x X Kulja) 7 Zernovoy (Kugart) X x X 8 Sokh, Otukchu, X X X Various sections, not Ak Turpak, Kyzyl all documents in Korgon English; Small Works 9 Kara Jigach, (Kara Suu) X x X 10 Myrza Aky (Yassy) X x X 11 Sai (Tar) X x X 12 Kara Kuldja X X X Technical Feasibility, Socio-Economic data included 13 Katta Tegermen Canal X x X Small works 14 Kugart RB d/s of Kok Ongoing under ASSP, Art Bridge after modification (February 2004) 15 Kok Art Bridge (Kugart) NCB documents prepared in 1999 under IRP 16 Savai (Josholu) X x X Small Works 17 Sary Kamysh Canal X x X Designed; not (Tar) implemented
- 30 - 18 Naiman Main Canal X x X Small Works (Aravan Sai) 19 Aravan X x X 20 Blagoveshenka Section X x X Includes III (Kugart) Socio-Economic information 21 Sputnik Section IV X x X Includes (Kugart) Socio-Economic information 22 Atamkul Canal, Yassy X x X Mainly hydro-mechanical; Small Works 23 River Gauging Stations X X X Four sets of drawings (4) 24 Kara Darya upstream X Technical Feasibility; and downstream of not implemented Kugart confluence X = in English and Russian x = in Russian only 1/ Contents typically include: Assessment of natural conditions; Characteristics of existing protection embankments; Technical proposals for protection measures; Ecological fitness of construction materials; Operation of protection embankments; Mobilization; Cost Estimates; Assessment of likely damages; Hydraulic estimates.
- 31 - Additional Annex 9. Works & Studies Undertaken under the IRP relating to the FEP
Feasibility Study
The Kyrgyz Design Institute prepared in late 1998 a Feasibility Study for 25 sub-projects, many of which were subsequently implemented under FEP. The information covered in the study included climate, hydrology, information on quarries, information on damage caused by the 1998 floods, general principles of design options, proposals for rehabilitation of the 25 sub-projects, initial cost estimates, and environmental considerations.
Post Flood Rehabilitation Works
IRP was modified and a flood protection component was added. The following works were carried out with IRP financing.
No. River/Site Works Cost Finish Date US $000 1 Kugart River bed cleaning 509 24/3/99 2 Kugart Strengthening embankment 640 15/7/01 Chainage 86-94 3.1 Kugart Rehabilitation of 541 15/7/01 Chainage 94-98.5 embankment 3.2 Kugart Rehabilitation of 360 30/7/01 Chainage 98.5-103 embankment
4 Mailu Suu Irrigation Headworks 174 1/4/01 (3,360 ha) 5 Kara Ungur Irrigation Headworks 244 21/4/99 (23,700 ha) 6 Aravan Sai Irrigation Headworks 344 13/8/99 (3,360 ha) 7 Kugart Irrigation Headworks 188 15/3/00 (8,900 ha) TOTAL 3000 Source: Irrigation Rehabilitation Project, Annual Report, 2003.
Notes: - Kugart embankments rehabilitated under IRP lie downstream of Bishkek-Osh bridge and upstream of Kok-Art bridge. - Kara Ungur Headworks lies upstream of Katta Tegermen Canal. - Aravan Sai Headworks lies immediately upstream of embankments reconstructed under FEP. - Kugart Headworks lies downstream of Zernovoy Canal and the Kugart gauging station and upstream of embankment works.
- 32 - Related Works Carried Out Under Irrigation Rehabilitation Project
The Irrigation Rehabilitation Project has carried out works under the Irrigation and Maintenance Component that are closely related with structures that have been rehabilitated under the FEP. The works are summarized in the following tables.
Rehabilitation Works
No. River/Site Works Cost Finish Date US $000 1 Sokh/ Canal lining and 404 2/29/04 Burganda heightening, repair of road and pedestrian bridges.
Maintenance Works
No. River/Site Works Cost Finish Date US $000 2 Kugart/ Repair to headworks 35 3/15/04 Zernovoy Canal structure, desilting of Zernovoy, secondary 1 and 2 canals 3 Yassy/ Repair of sluice regulator, 24 4/5/03 Atamkul Canal desilting of 5.3 km of canal
- 33 - Additional Annex 10. Engineering - Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Infrastructure
1. Introduction
In the PAD the repair or reconstruction of 8.8 km of embankment and of about 4 km of spurs was envisaged. In addition 6 km of conveyance canals and several other minor works were considered. The actual project consisted of repairing or reconstructing over 30.5 km of embankment and spurs, a limited length of conveyance canals, headworks reconstruction, and the replacement of a double carriageway bridge, needed to provide adequate discharge capacity in a Kugart River section that was protected by the project. Therefore the extent of the structures repaired and/or reconstructed was by far superior to what was envisaged at the beginning of the project. A number of changes to the originally envisaged tasks were made, following further studies on sites and on the local risk conditions, which determined priority areas in urgent need of protection. At most locations the stream geometry was considered more suitable for longitudinal protection embankments than for the deflection spurs envisaged during appraisal. Savings, relative to the appraisal estimate, were possible through the introduction of more effective engineering approaches. The original cost estimates, provided by government during appraisal, were very high. In addition, contractors prices were typically very competitive.
The table at the end of this Annex gives a brief description of each sub-project, the outputs and the costs. It also summarizes the work quantities performed at each sub project, including earth-works, concrete works, stone works, granular filters, Reno mattresses, and geotextiles.
2. Design
2.1. General Assessment
The main goal of the appraisal document was fully achieved in that a very significant mitigation of the flooding risk was obtained by the designed protection structures. Design was satisfactory and provided contractors with all the main relevant information needed to carry out the work. The stability of the bank protection structures as designed is believed to be satisfactory, consistent with the recommendations of the international consultants and in line with the expectations of the PAD and with the requirements of the local norms. In 2002-2003 large floods occurred, which, at least at two different locations, reportedly were close to the 0.5 percent probability river discharge. No damage was reported in the completed structures, but some damage occurred at locations where the construction works were still ongoing.
Works were also carried out on headworks on the Sokh and Shakhimardan and six smaller irrigation headworks. It can be concluded that these works are satisfactory and fulfill the goals of the project.
Four gauging stations have been designed and constructed. Each of them will be equipped with a flood warning system based on automatic water level measuring and transmission of records by means of modern communication facilities. These systems are very much needed in order to mitigate flooding hazards at several villages. In addition new and more reliable flow measurements will allow further verification of the level of risk at each location. The hydroposts will be located on the Kugart River (Mikhailovka Village), on the Tar River (Chalma Village), on the Yassy river (Salamalik Village), and on the Kara-Kuldja river (Pervomaiskoe Village).
- 34 - 2.2. Applied Norms
Local norms (SNIP 2.06.15-85 “Engineering protection of the territory from flooding and submerging”) were applied in order to define the Risk Category of each sub-project and the probability of exceedance of the design and of the control river discharges applied in the hydraulic calculations. Risk Category III was assigned to all the populated areas, whereas Risk Category IV was assigned to irrigation schemes. According to the local norms (SNIP 2.06.05-84 “Dams constructed with soil materials”) crest elevation of protection dams has to be not less than 0.5 m above the maximum water level. According to SNIP 2.06.01-86, the annual probability of exceedance for Risk Category III is the following: - Design - 3.0 percent (once per 33 years); - Check test - 0.5 percent (once in 200 years).
According to SNIP 2.06.01-86, the annual probability of exceedance for Risk Category IV is the following: - Design - 5.0 percent (once per 20 years); - Check test - 1.0 percent (once in 100 years).
It is understood that most evaluations on the design floods were carried out based on the available gauging station records, which reportedly in some occasions did not record accurately during floods. Freeboards of at least 0.5 m (and up to 0.8 m) considered in the local norms are rather high according to western standards. However, considering the uncertainty in long-term flood data they seem appropriate. Further insight into these aspects will be beneficial for future similar projects. The gauging stations constructed under the project will be important to build up an accurate data base of flow data.
2.3. Selection of Materials
The quarry stone protections and the Reno mattresses were designed based on international state-of-the-practice formulas. The Reno mattresses were partly imported from foreign countries and partly produced in local gabion factories. As far as the local production is concerned, the wire used to manufacture the mattresses was imported from Ukraine. Such wire is characterized by a zinc content in line with the internationally accepted values (at least 260 gram per kg of wire) and therefore it is expected to provide an adequate resistance against corrosion.
The rock used for river bank protection was obtained from different quarries. The material was tested and qualified, and in general the stone quality used in construction was satisfactory. The quality of stone used must be sufficient to withstand the expected bombardment of flood bedloads and winter conditions with freezing and thawing. Therefore the sources of supply of quality stone are limited and had to be carefully selected. This often resulted in large haulage costs and the cost of the embankments is largely dependent on the quantity of rock and distance from the nearest suitable quarry. At some locations two different kinds of stones were adopted from different quarries where the best quality material was placed in the zone subject to more critical weathering conditions.
2.4. Selection of Alternatives
Several different alternatives were considered for river bank protection at each sub-project. They included schemes with quarry rock (with special rock placement), Reno mattresses, and gabions. In the end only Reno mattresses and stone protections were adopted. Gabions were excluded as they were too bulky and expensive for the project requirements.
- 35 - The rock protection designed for the FEP project is typically composed of two layers of stones, placed one by one and properly interlocked, and the voids between the larger blocks are filled with smaller rock fragments. The quarry rock is placed on a gravel layer which protects the embankment from eroding. The foot of the river bank is protected by a horizontal apron of designed length which prevents underscouring and collapse of the embankment face. This scheme differs considerably from previous emergency works in Kyrgyzstan which were carried out using random rock placement and without providing an apron and a proper granular filter.
A similar scheme was adopted for the Reno mattresses, which had not been used before in the Kyrgyz Republic. A filter was provided between the mattresses and the embankment soil, including a sheet of geotextile. Even in this case the toe of the embankment was protected by means of an apron composed of Reno mattresses and relatively large stones. A row of stones was placed at the toe of the embankment to provide protection of the steel mesh from abrasion.
The selection was based on a preliminary cost estimate carried out at the design stage. In general the distance of the construction site from the closest suitable quarry was the most relevant controlling factor, and usually Reno mattresses were found to be cost-effective at sites located at a distance in excess of 60 km from the quarry. For some contracts two quarries were used in order to save on construction costs when the quarry with the best stone was located far from the project site.
3. Construction
3.1. Technical Performance
The technical performance of the project was satisfactory in that the works were completed according to acceptable standards. In very few cases an excess of small stones was observed in the rock protection, but in general the special placement of stones was performed adequately. The Reno mattresses are generally well built, carefully filled by hand, and connected to each other. Although the contractors did not have previous experience in this kind of work, very few specific technical problems were reported by them. PIU and designers provided training to contractors who did not have specific experience in the works to be carried out, and this activity proved to be quite fruitful.
3.2. Technical Problems
The main technical problems which were encountered during construction were due to the occurrence of floods during the works, which caused delays relative to the contractual time, and sometimes led also to significant damage to the unfinished structures. At Aravan Sai difficulties were also found in carrying out the works due to the narrow river bed which made water diversion difficult, and due also to lack of space on the river banks. Other reported technical problems were due to occasional delays in the supply of mattresses. At Kara Jigach the tense political and social situation led some subcontractors and suppliers to withdraw their services causing delays with the works.
3.3. Construction Supervision
Construction supervision was carried out by field engineers engaged by the PIU. Local consulting engineers from KDI were also involved in supervision missions to the site. Their role was to make sure that all design specifications and recommendations were complied with (so called "author's" supervision). In general, construction supervision was carried out properly and according to a good quality standard, with adequate testing and reporting.
- 36 - 4. Sustainability
4.1. Expected Life
Experience with Reno mattresses around the world shows that this kind of river bank protection can last for several decades without major damage. In general a life in excess of 40 years can be expected (e.g. see British Board of Agreement, Certificates Nos. 95/3141 and 00/3683) in environment conditions such as the ones applicable to the FEP. Case histories show that in some occasions a life in excess of 100 years can be attained. The adopted zinc coating for FEP is consistent with the international accepted values and provides a good level of protection against corrosion. A row of stones was placed at the bottom of the protected slope in order to mitigate the effects of abrasion by solid transported materials. Since the factors affecting the life of steel wire are complex and since little experience on Reno mattresses is available in the project areas, it was agreed that FMPA will provide a close and continuous monitoring of the mattresses performance.
As far as the quarry stone protection is concerned, the rock adopted in the project should provide a long operational life of several decades, provided that continuous and prompt maintenance actions are carried out, where needed. A number of tests for quality assessment were carried out according to the local norms, to ensure that good quality rock was used throughout the sub-projects.
At one of the first sub-projects, Ak Turpak on the Sokh River, precast-reinforced-concrete slabs were initially used in place of the special-placement stone protection established in design. Following recommendations by an IDA supervision mission the slabs were protected with good quality stones. As a result the durability of the bank protection at Ak Turpak is expected to be comparable with the durability of the works carried out at other FEP locations.
4.2. Maintenance Requirements
Top parts of the levees exposed to direct water flow or insufficiently protected by damaged Reno mattresses or stones should be fixed immediately in order to prevent damage to the filter material, to the surrounding rock or mattresses and to the embankment. Similarly, immediate action shall be undertaken if deformation of the river bank due to poor performance of the filter layer and consequent erosion has taken place. The maintenance requirements for Reno mattresses involve prompt repair when breakage or severe abrasion of the wire mesh is observed. Typically the damage would be fixed using patches of wire mesh or, where necessary, immediately replacing the damaged mattresses with new ones. The wire mesh adopted for patches or for the replacement mattresses shall comply with the design specifications. Tools and spare wire were procured with Austrian funds, so that FMPA is equipped to provide the needed repairs.
The maintenance requirements for quarry stone protection involve prompt replacement of the stones displaced by the flood and repair of the filter layer where required. The quality and the size of the replacement stones shall comply with the design specifications.
4.3. Maintenance Arrangements
The maintenance of the river bank protections is the responsibility of the FMPA. Key maintenance issues are very well understood by the Agency and experienced personnel is available for proper inspection and emergency repair activities. Inspections are carried out by field staff every week and the observed damage, if any, is reported immediately to the oblast and central offices of the Agency. In case mattresses
- 37 - have to be fixed, this can be done directly by the maintenance personnel who would typically construct manually the wire patches to be used for repair. On the other hand, in case quarry stone protections are to be fixed a contractor with adequate equipment will be called in. Alternatively the Agency itself could manage to perform these emergency repair works using its own equipment, if available, which is limited, or use the equipment made available to DWR oblast offices under the Irrigation Rehabilitation Project.
A constant cooperation between the Flood and Mudflow Protection Agency and the KDI is to be encouraged in order to provide effective monitoring of the new works and to learn lessons for future design of similar structures. It is important that the Agency's personnel provide the designer with comprehensive information on the type and extent of the observed damage if any, and on the circumstances under which such damage did occur.
5. Contractors and Consultants
5.1. Contractors
In general the technical performance of the contractors was satisfactory, despite their limited experience. They proved a definite willingness to complete the works although in some cases they may have faced substantial financial losses. Apparently in some cases their bid was too low, and furthermore problems associated with floods and other unforeseen events caused considerable delays and made the economic outcome of contracts worse for them. Some contracts did not include a “force majeure” clause, and therefore the extra unforeseen works as a results of high floods were not paid for by the client. The main shortcomings of the contractor were probably related to inexperience in dealing with bids, subcontractors, and with the client itself. Some training and guidance was given to the contractors, and it is believed that during the project they had a very good opportunity to acquire not only new technical skills, but also additional experience on contractual and organizational issues. Thus, the experience collected during the FEP improved the ability of the contractors and even more of the KDI to deal with future government-funded and internationally funded projects.
5.2 Consultants
The local consultants, which benefited from the experience of international engineers, had a prominent role in proposing and introducing to the PIU fundamental information on design and construction of river bank protection by means of special stone placement and Reno mattresses. This contribution made easier the introduction of these two effective technologies in Kyrgyzstan, resulting in sound and durable protections of the river banks.
6. Lessons Learned l Timely project implementation depends on good project planning. In this case, the time-frames of both sub-project contracts and the project itself were bound to be extended because no proper account was taken of the need to halt works during the flood season; l The sequence of construction works should be carefully planned so that when floods are likely to occur, most works should be able to withstand them; l Technologies and design approaches that are new for the borrowing country can be effectively introduced by experienced consultants, and with little training adopted by contractors that have related hydraulic construction experiences; and l On-the-job training and regular supervision by experienced engineers is critical in order to obtain overall satisfactory results and to provide a relatively homogeneous quality level.
- 38 - - 39 - - 40 - Additional Annex 11. Impact of Works
1. Protection Embankments on Rivers
1.1. Methodological Background and Approach
The purpose of the work on river embankments was to improve protection of populations, private and public infrastructure, and farmland against damage by flood or erosion of riverbanks. The nature and extent of risks associated with the pre-project situation were not quantified, but it was clear that protection levees along certain sections of major rivers had either been destroyed or severely weakened, which would cause flooding during future high flow occurrences, with subsequent hardship to rural people. No economic evaluation of benefits from investment in this sub-component was carried out at appraisal (none being required, since FEP was prepared as an Emergency Recovery Project). The detailed assessment of risks would have been a complex exercise and, at the time, the priority was to proceed with rehabilitation/reconstruction.
In the course of project implementation, priority riverbank sections were chosen and each sub-project thus selected was subjected to technical and economic scrutiny by consultants and supervision missions to evaluate the least-cost, durable engineering solution which would attain the national norms of protection against flood risk. For settlements, that is protection against 1:200 year flood discharges. Embankment protection norms provide for lining up to the level of a 1:200 year flood event, but the embankment body itself is somewhat higher, and can provide a greater level of protection. A simplified economic evaluation was carried out comparing the expected investment cost of the sub-project with the value of housing and other infrastructure, as well as the value of potential agricultural losses, within an area which could be flooded by a 1:200 year event. The flood envelope for each sub-project was defined largely along contours, with correction through local enquiries. Strictly speaking, as an economic assessment, this methodology had flaws: it entirely omitted consideration of probability/risk as well as the expected life of the embankments; no account was taken of potential losses from higher frequency flood events which the rehabilitated embankments would also prevent; and those cases where protection was also to protect high river banks from erosion and collapse (Aravan Sai) were addressed as only being at flood risk. Essentially, the methodology implied that “without-project”, settlements (or parts of settlements) at risk from a 1:200 year flood would have to be relocated and the cost of relocation would be the declared current value of the housing and infrastructure, while agricultural lands would be subjected to a flood quite soon.
During implementation, a survey of 1,000 households was also carried out to investigate the socio-economic impact of floods (in general) on local communities. It is now generally acknowledged that flood risk imposes not only economic, but also psychological harm. Besides, households did not want relocation, which is also difficult in southern Kyrgyzstan, the most densely populated part of the country with limited productive agricultural land.
1.2. Assessment of Impact
Estimates of the numbers of households and direct beneficiaries of improved flood protection under each sub-project are set out in Table 11.1 (see end of this Annex) along with construction costs. Estimates of the amount and value of other infrastructure benefiting from improved protection are given in Table 11.2. Over 110,000 people have seen protection of their settlements improve as a result of the project and some 40,000 of these living in the flood zone now have immediate protection for their persons, homes, and
- 41 - possessions. For those in these potential flood areas, the embankments provide an increased sense of security. For example, in Suzak and Aravan, there are traumatic memories of previous floods which forced people to climb to their roofs or flee for their lives. Flood alarms were also frequent. In Aravan, prior to embankment construction there have been, throughout recent years, frequent occasions when forecast floods have caused people to evacuate their homes at short notice. The socio-economic survey shows that any serious flood (warning) results in disruption to schools, communications, shops, and services, which affect the whole settlement as well as impinging on the wider community living in the settlements or needing to travel through it.
The level of protection now afforded to all settlements is improved. The exceptions are along the Kugart and Aravan Sai Rivers. The Agricultural Support Services Project (ASSP) is now financing reconstruction of embankments along the lower section of the Kugart River (see Section 1.4 below). Along the Aravan Sai River small sections at the extreme low ends of the raion center have not been secured to complete 1:200 year protection for economic reasons. Floods may still break through such weaker sections at the bottom end of the center, although the impact is expected to be very marginal.
Local employment generated is estimated at around 120,000 mandays of unskilled labor, including 3 65,000 mandays for assembling/filling Reno mattresses (@ 0.85 m /manday) and 45,000 mandays for rock 3 placement (@ 8 m /manday). Employment was also generated for contractors and their staff, as well as for the firm of consulting engineers engaged to design and supervise the works.
1.3. Embankments on Rivers Planned in the PAD
Kara Darya (downstream of the Andijan dam): The PAD foresaw the rehabilitation of 3.5 km of embankments. FEP only reconstructed 562 m of embankment in 3 severely damaged high priority sections upstream of Jide Villages with a population over 3,200, with its agricultural land lying between the river's left bank and the Uzbek border. Proposals for further works on the Kara Darya under FEP were rejected in favor of securing improved control of releases from the Andijan Dam (managed by Uzbekistan). Some other small sections have been repaired by MEE and FMPA respectively, but the sections reconstructed by FEP are of superior quality. However, the most significant contribution towards securing the overall protection of the villages along the Kara Darya from flooding may be the agreement achieved, at the insistence of the IDA Task Team, between Jalal-Abad Oblast DWR and the Uzbek reservoir management under a Protocol signed in 2002 on exchange of information and on regulating discharges from the dam. Records indicate that maximum discharges from the dam have not since reached even 60 percent of the levels registered in 1998 and only about 1/3 of the design discharge (see Table 11.3).
Kara Kuldja: Two linked sections of embankment (Sections 4 and 5) protect from flooding a small settlement of houses (population about 2,000) and 6 industrial units (including a road maintenance depot with offices) built within the river plain itself. A third (Section 2) protects the intake of the Keniz Bai canal (capacity 800 l/sec) providing irrigation water to plots in and around the town of Kara Kuldja, and the last (Section 1) protects from erosion a cliff which supports reservoirs and boreholes providing the water supply for the raion center of Kara Kuldja (population about 11,000). Full 1:200 year flood protection has been secured for all those living in the river plain as well as for the whole town’s water supply for domestic use and irrigation.
Tar: FEP constructed a single left bank embankment extending the entire length of the river-front of Sai village (population about 2,200), which is built in the river plain and was previously protected, precariously, by an embankment built by MEE. An attempt had already been made to relocate the entire
- 42 - settlement on higher ground, but this alternative was rejected by the population and authorities because of the impracticability of supplying the new location with irrigation. The village suffered badly during the 1998 floods which also destroyed much of the existing embankment. As in the case of Kara Kuldja, FEP has prevented the uprooting of the resident population. Existing water supply for domestic use and irrigation has been safeguarded for the village, as well as personal safety for 1:200 year floods. Essentially, the entire livelihood for the population has been secured in their home environment.
Sokh: FEP constructed four sections of embankment totalling 3.75 km over a stretch of river totalling 15 km, protecting a population of about 2,300 in three villages. Two sections protect the cliff on which Otukchu Village is built, while the other two sections protect from flooding Ak Turpak and Kyzyl Korgon Villages. The embankments also protect the main access road to the villages. Upstream of this 3 stretch of river, in Uzbekistan, lies the Sokh reservoir (capacity 90 million m ). High releases of water from this reservoir in May 2000 caused damage to ongoing works, later satisfactorily completed. A flood close to the design discharge of the embankments occurred in 2003 without, reportedly, causing damage to the embankments or villages. Short of a disastrous failure at the dam, the villages appear to be protected from river flood flows.
Yassy: Three sections of embankment reconstructed by FEP have succeeded in training the river and protecting the entire settlement of Myrza Aky (total population about 14,000, with about 2,800 people living directly in the flood zone) against 1:200 year floods. The embankments have also assured a permanent intake structure and conveyance canal for irrigation of some 500 ha from the Zai Bukar Canal which serves the town.
1.4. Embankments on Rivers Not Planned in the PAD
Kugart (population around project sites about 49,000): Severe flooding had originated in 1998 in Suzak Raion Center along the Kugart River, causing hundreds of households to be temporarily resettled. The most urgent sections of embankment immediately downstream of the Bishkek-Osh bridge and inside Suzak were completed under the Post-Flood works of IRP. FEP complemented these works by reconstructing the Kok Art bridge in Suzak at the downstream end of this section, raising it in order that it would no longer cause a bottleneck to flood flows, and by rehabilitating embankments in 3 sections of river upstream of the Bishkek-Osh bridge. Flooding had occurred in this stretch earlier in the 1990s and the 1998 flood flows had further weakened the defenses. Flood protection for Suzak and a series of villages upstream is now much improved. The upstream end of the town, together with the Bishkek-Osh road crossing, and significant industrial installations, have been materially safeguarded against 1:200 year floods. In 2003 a flood greater than that of 1998 passed the new embankments, causing no significant damage or overtopping (see Table 11.3). However, sections of embankment downstream of the sections reconstructed under the project were weakened by the 2003 floods. Some floods emergency repairs were carried out by contractors engaged by DWR, including clearing sediment. IDA then agreed to use about US $2 million unused funds from the ASSP for further flood levee strengthening works downstream of the Kok Art bridge in order to protect the lower reaches of Suzak town and settlements on the opposite bank. A modification of ASSP was prepared early 2004 and construction works are currently ongoing.
Aravan (population about 23,000): FEP has entirely redesigned and reconstructed flood protection works along both sides of a 3.5 km stretch of river immediately upstream, and through the center, of the raion town of Aravan where old embankments were dilapidated. The new protection embankments and drop structures will effectively protect the major part of the town from 1:200 year floods and, by reducing flow rates, should dissipate the destructive force of flood flows through the remaining
- 43 - stretch of river, lower in the town.
Kara Suu/Kara Jigach River System: Scattered villages, with a total population of about 11,000 have been protected. Eight sections of river embankment have been constructed, providing 1:200 year protection for six villages in an area which has recently experienced civil unrest.
2. Irrigation
The purpose of the irrigation interventions was to prevent losses which could be expected from an irrigation headworks arrangement that would fail to divert water in adequate quantities and at the right time to irrigation areas. Successive flood flows had already eroded many run-of-river irrigation intakes and continual training works were needed to assure irrigation supplies. This normally involved the stationing of bulldozers on-site during the irrigation season. The 1998 floods deteriorated the condition of the run-of-river intakes and also destroyed major gated headworks on the Sokh and Shakhimardan River.
The construction of permanent spurs and canal protection embankments has again allowed full irrigation. Also operation has been much facilitated and the risk of temporary interruption of supplies has been reduced. The areas and villages benefiting from FEP works are listed in Table 11.4. They amount to about 34,300 ha and around 24 villages. In the case of Sokh headworks, the rehabilitation of the headworks allowed serving a much expanded command area on the Burganda scheme (16,600 ha), which has now been rehabilitated under the IRP program. The cost of FEP works varied from US $31 to US $104 per ha of command area. This is modest in relation to the agricultural production assured. However, in few schemes, additional maintenance works and repairs have also been required (done under IRP) to ensure full supply of water.
The total cost of maintaining a bulldozer at each of the run-of-river sites during the irrigation season is estimated at about US $10,000 annually. This amounts to some US $0.55 million over a 25 year period, compared with a capital cost of US $1.06 million for the run-of-river schemes. Taking this cost saving from the total capital cost of irrigation works of US $2.05 million, the remaining capital cost of US $57 per ha would be covered by an annual yield increase of 1-2 percent, which according to interviews with farmers should have been easily achieved. It is reasonable to deduce that increased reliability of water supply, together with the cost savings achieved by the project, will have generated a value of benefits exceeding by far the costs of the works.
- 44 - - 45 - - 46 - Table 11.3 Maximum Flood Discharges on FEP Rivers
1:200 year 1998 Max flood at/after construction m3/sec m3/sec m3/sec year Kara Darya 1,270 750 400 2003 Kara Kuldja 254 138 240 2003 Tar 549 NA 240 2003 Sokh 325 220 320 2003 Yassy 680 359 188 2002
Kugart 353 NA 510 2003 Aravan Sai 220 NA 195 2003 Kara Suu/Kara Jigach 200 NA NA
Source: Reports produced for and by supervision missions. Note: Several gauging stations out of order during floods.
- 47 - Table 11.4 Benefits of Irrigation Sub-projects
Oblast River/ Scheme Cost IRP/OIP Village Hectares Cost/ha $000 $ Jalalabad Kugart Zernovoy 558 Yes Leninskoye (maint) Bagush 5,388 104 Kugart
Kara Ungur Sai Katta Tegermen 47 475 99
Osh Yassy Atamkul 173 Yes Ilichovka 2,090 83 (maint) Gerentche Kyzyl Ijan
Aravan Sai Naiman 113 1,500 75
Gulcha/Josholu Savai 22 506 43
Kara Kulja Uzgen 146 Kari Kochkor 3,054 48 Oktiabrski Uzgen Town Nizhny Uzgen Subtotal 1,059 Aigr Jal Run of river Kenesh Kashka Terek Uzgurush
Batken Sokh Burganda 708 Yes Ak Turpak 16,600 43 Kyrgyz Kyshtak
Shakhimardan Shakhimardan 288 Yes Halmiyon 4,740 61 Tash Dobe (2 WUAs) Podkhoz Nougardan Subtotal 996 Chekelik Headworks Joshuk Jarkoton Alga
TOTAL 2,055 24 34,353
- 48 - - 49 -