KARNATAKA: CONGRESS IN LEAD BUT IT COULD STILL BE A COALITION

With just ten days to go for elections, the situation in is one of Congress’ unwillingness to cross the finishing line on its own but the people could still disappoint the party by making it the single largest party in an Assembly of 224 seats.

Thanks to the Bharatiya – the anti-incumbency mood, split caused by BS Yeddyurappa and charges of corruption against the saffron leaders -- the Congress could not have asked for more ingredients to stir up the best recipe and steamroll the rivals. But, then the Congress did everything it could to spoil the dish – wrong selection of candidates, serious infighting among senior leaders and lack of a cohesive strategy – so much so that the State now appears to be headed towards a coalition regime vis-à-vis a comfortable victory envisaged for the party sometime ago. Yet, the party leadership could still be smiling when the votes are counted in the second week of May because of TINA factor. Moreover, past history suggests that Karnataka has never elected an incumbent government for a second time since 1983 when the ended the monopoly of Congress on state politics.

Information gathered from various sources suggests that the Congress could perform below the initial expectations for a variety of reasons: a) rebels are likely to play spoilsport in at least 25-30 seats though they are present in over 70 constituencies; b) failure to project a the Chief Ministerial candidate belonging to any of the dominant communities could cost the party dearly in some constituencies; and c) match-fixing by local Congress leaders with their counterparts in BJP and JD (S) by fielding weak nominees in select segments. Broadly speaking, the fight could essentially be between the Congress and BJP in , Coastal and North Karnataka. In South Karnataka, the fight is expected to be mainly between the Congress and JD (S) while it could be between the Congress and KJP of Yeddy in 2-3 districts. ------9B, Samrat Complex, Opp: AG’s Office, Saifabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 1 | P a g e

Congress: First, the Congress. The general impression is that the party goofed up in the selection of candidates, possibly because of wrong inputs from the local leadership. For example, having made some BJP ministers resign from the party, the Congress has ultimately not given them the tickets leading to serious disenchantment. Example: Chennapatnam, where BJP-turned-Congressman, CP Yogeshwar, was denied a ticket. He is now in the race as SP candidate and could mar the chances of Congress. Likewise, in quite a few constituencies such as Hangal and KGF, the Congress is being accused of deliberately fielding weak candidates. In Chintamani, the most potential nominee, Sudhakar Reddy, was not given a ticket and instead a woman candidate has been fielded. Reddy is now being backed by the JD (S). No surprises even if he wins and, in any case, he is certain to spoil the victory of Congress nominee.

Such examples across the State are countless. In Surpur of Yadgir district, Narsimha Naik, also known as Raju Gowda, quit the BJP only to be denied a ticket by Congress, reportedly at the behest of Mallikarjuna Kharge. The Congress has given the ticket to a person who has lost thrice and Naik is now the JD (S) candidate. The role played by actor-turned-Union Minister in the selection of candidates could dent the Congress’ prospects in Mandya region as almost the entire local leadership is against the choices made by him. It could finally turn to the advantage of JD (S). So is the case in Chitradurg where the party preferred CM Ibrahim’s choice instead of two-time winning candidate, Sangamesh. JD (S) seized the opportunity and is backing Sangamesh.

Lack of a cohesive functioning among the top four leaders of the party is too evident to miss anybody’s attention. Each of the four leaders – Kharge, Siddaramaiah (Opposition leader in the Assembly), Parameshwar (PCC president) and former Union Minister SM Krishna – are operating independently, often at cross-purposes. For instance, supporters of Siddaramaiah are said to be ensuring that Kurubas (the ------9B, Samrat Complex, Opp: AG’s Office, Saifabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 2 | P a g e

caste to which he belongs to) don’t vote for Parameshwar (Dalit) in the constituency from where he is contesting as the latter happens to be in the reckoning for CM’s post. Likewise, Dalits are being instigated not to back Siddaramaiah in his constituency as he too happens to be in the race. Sulking for a variety of reasons after his axe from the Cabinet and his supporters not being favoured with tickets, Krishna is confining his campaigning to Bangalore belt. Overall, it is a case of each senior leader trying to cut the other’s throat.

BJP:

The solace for the Congress is that the BJP too is faced with similar predicaments. It is now more or less clear that the KJP of Yeddyurappa is not going to make it big in the elections but what is certain that the former chief minister’s party will significantly cut into the vote-bank of BJP and thereby badly affect its prospects. Like the Congress, the BJP too made wrong choice of candidates in many segments and, in some cases, even fielded family members of those party leaders who are facing corruption charges or have gone to jail. This is not going down well with the people. Having said this, the BJP is likely to perform well in the “Hindu laboratory” belt of Coastal Karnataka comprising Mangalore, Udipi and Uttara Karnataka. The BJP has managed to somewhat dent the impact of Yeddyurappa by projecting the incumbent, Jagdish Shettar , as the CM candidate again as both of them belong to the dominant Lingayat community. But, the anti-incumbency mood is so severe that only a miracle can bring the BJP to power again.

JD (S)/KJP/BSR:

By all indications, the JD (S) is expected to improve upon its 2009 numbers. The party has successfully embraced many rebels from the Congress and the BJP and the infighting within the two principal parties is expected to benefit Devegowda- Kumaraswamy combination. Their stronghold, however, continues to be just the Old and Hyderabad Karnataka belts but the party is expected to notch up

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some seats in other regions as well this time, including North Karnataka. Evidence of this came in the elections to ULBs when the JD (S) performed fairly well in pockets of North Karnataka. The party’s focus on issues of concern to people such as Cauvery waters is expected to fetch it some dividends as against the Congress which is just trying to encash on the weaknesses of BJP. The influence of Yeddyruppa’s party is expected to be limited to Haveri district and a few other pockets (he is believed to have a tacit understanding with the Congress) while the BSR Congress too is unlikely to fare well except in some segments in the Bellary region. Many say JD (S) has a secret poll pact with the BJP but given the nature of the former, its loyalties can change depending on the final numbers.

CONCLUSION:

Barring some last-minute one-way swing in favour of the Congress, it is more than likely that the State could be headed for a coalition given the triangular nature of fights in at least 100 segments and the complex caste equations. There appears little doubt that the Congress will top the list in terms of number of seats but what is not certain is whether it will make it to the 113 half-way mark on its own or will require the support of Independents and others such as KJP of Yeddyurappa. Like last time, it is expected that independents (read as rebels) might emerge the winners in at least a dozen constituencies, if not more. Typically, all of them head towards the party that is most likely to form the government. While most expect the Congress to be definitely above 80 in terms of seats, how close it will come to the three-figure mark will determine the choices before it. Closer to 100, it can form the government with help from just Independents and Yeddy who will be more than happy to sail with Congress. But, for any reason, if the Congress stops between 80- 90, the role to be played by JD (S) becomes crucial. Expected to bag between 35-45 seats, seeking the support of JD (S) will then become necessary for the Congress. The BJP, likely to land anywhere between 60-70 seats, appears to prefer to sit in the Opposition instead of making efforts to form a government even if it has an ------9B, Samrat Complex, Opp: AG’s Office, Saifabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 4 | P a g e

outside chance. The party, according to the word on the street, believes that being in the Opposition now will actually help it by the time Lok Sabha elections are held next year.

Of the 224 seats, the position in at least 20 constituencies, as of now, is still not clear. Which way these seats will ultimately swing will determine how close the Congress will be to the winning post?

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