BTSGIF General Presentation Jun 2019
Disclaimer
This is not prospectus of BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund (“BTSGIF” or “the Fund”). Investment in the Funds contains certain risk. Before investing, please carefully study the prospectus of the Funds. An investment in investment units shall not be deemed as deposit of money. The unitholders may receive an amount of any return that is more or less than the initial amount invested. Furthermore, the Fund has intention to invest in infrastructure projects which is a long-term investment; as a consequence, the investors ought to be aware of its risks from and returns on investment in investment units.
This Fund invests in the future net farebox revenue from the Core BTS SkyTrain System. Its value may decrease along with elapse of the concession term, thus decreasing the value of the investment units accordingly. The unitholders will receive return of initial investment in the form of dividend and capital reduction. Once the term expires according to the Net Revenue Purchase and Transfer Agreement that the Fund has invested in, the value of the investment units may decrease to Baht zero.
This document has been prepared solely for the information purpose. The information contained herein is general and does not constitute advice or opinion, and should not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. None of this information in this document constitutes an offer to treat, buy or sell any security or to participate in any trading strategy. Third parties cannot derive any rights from this document. While particular attention has been paid to the contents of this document, no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given to the accuracy, correctness or completeness thereof. Any information given in this document may be subject to change or update without notice. No liability (such as, but not limited to, direct, consequential, special, punitive or indirect damages) will be accepted for any loss sustained by readers as a result of using this document or basing decisions on it. Please note that the investment is not a deposit of money and may be subject to certain risks. The value of your investment may rise or fall and also past performance is not insisting of future performance and shall in no event be deemed as such.
For more information relating to the Fund, please visit www.btsgif.com or www.bblam.co.th
BTSGIF General Presentation 2 Contents
Page
I. BTSGIF at a Glance 4
II. BTSGIF Investment Highlights 9
III. BTSGIF Performance Summary 18
IV. Conclusion 22
Appendix
Background of Infrastructure Funds (IFFs) 24
BTSGIF’s Structure 27
Initial Assets and O&M Business (BTSGIF’s Call Option) 29
Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network 30
Targeted Lines by BTS Group 31
Forecast of Farebox Revenue, Costs and Additional Investment Project until FY 29/30 and FY19/20 Guidance 33
BTSGIF Performance 39
Suksa Wittaya Station (S4) 47
Historical Fare Adjustment 48
BTSGIF General Presentation 3 BTSGIF At a Glance
BTSGIF Stock information
BTSGIF is the first Infrastructure Fund in Thailand Stock code BTSGIF Invest in the 23.5km of BTS Core Network with 11 years concession Outstanding shares (mn) 5,788 remaining Position to benefit from passenger growth, fare increase and operating Market capitalisation (THB mn)* 61,352.8 leverage on Core Network Seek for new opportunities from mass transit infrastructure projects with Market capitalisation (USD mn)* 1,932.1 strong cash flow potential Closing price* 10.60
*as of 31 May 2019
THB ≈10.5 years 9.2% 62.5bn remaining CAGR
Raised from IPO Concession expiry in 2029 of Farebox revenue (18 yrs since inception)
≈ 241mn trips 66.1% 5.8% (744,475 trips / Weekday ) EBITDA margin Yield
Annual passengers of Core BTS SkyTrain Implied annual in core network (FY 18/19) dividend yield* (FY 18/19) (FY 18/19) * Based on par value (THB) 10.611 BTSGIF General Presentation Section I: BTSGIF at a Glance 4 BTSGIF At a Glance Invest in 23.5km of BTS Core Network, 10.5 years concession remaining
Fund summary Initial asset: Core BTS SkyTrain system (until 2029)
Fund Name BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund (“BTSGIF”) Sponsors BTS Group Holdings PCL (“BTSG”) and Bangkok Mass Transit System PCL (“BTSC”) DARK GREEN Fund Management BBL Asset Management Co., Ltd. (“BBLAM”) MO CHIT – ON NUT Company 17.0km Fund Supervisor Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) Pcl. (“SCBT”) Initial Asset • Future net farebox revenue (Farebox revenue less related operating cost and CAPEX) from the Core BTS SkyTrain system (23.5km) • Concession period ending 4 December 2029 (approximately 11 years remaining) • Investment cost : THB 61,399mn • American Appraisal appraisal value: THB 61,000mn (Discount rate 9.0%) LIGHT GREEN • fnAsia appraisal value: THB 59,400mn (Discount NATIONAL STADIUM - rate 8.8%)(1) SAPHAN TAKSIN Total Investment Units 5,788mn investment units 6.5km
Par Value THB 10.8 per investment unit (THB 10.611 per investment unit as of Jun 2017) • 30-year concession (ending 4 Dec 2029) to exclusively collect ridership Registered Capital THB 62,510.4mn, THB 61,416.5mn as of Jun 2017 fare (and bear related expenses and capital expenditure) • 23 stations over 23.5km located at CBD area of Bangkok Lock-up Arrangement Lock-up of BTSG’s 33.3% holding of BTSGIF units for 10 • All investments made by BTSC: Including civil works, E&M and trains years from FY 13/14 to FY 22/23 (except land acquisition) • No revenue sharing or concession fees to BMA (1) Discount cash flow without adjusting Mid-Year Convention
BTSGIF General Presentation Section I: BTSGIF at a Glance 5 BTSGIF At a Glance Strong governance framework: one-third investment by BTS with 10 years lock-up Management structure
BTSG Public Investors
33.3% 66.7% (lock up 10 yrs from FY 13/14 to FY 22/23) Fund Supervisor Agreement
Investment Advisory Fund Supervisor Committee • Appointed by BBLAM (Standard Chartered Bank (Thai)) • Committees must include experts in • Supervise Fund Management Company Sky Train business Fund Management Company • Make payment for fund expenses BTSGIF (BBL Asset Management Co. Ltd) • Give investment advice on • Keep fund’s assets Fund Management investment to fund manager Infrastructure Fund Manager • Ongoing management of BTSGIF • Monitor BTSC’s operation NRTA* between BTSC and BTSGIF Nominate Board Representatives at BTSC 97.5% • Monitor BTSC’s operation and compliance under NRTA • Exercise veto vote on Reserved Matters
Controls BTSC Board BTSC
• Comprise of 1/3 from BTSG, 1/3 from BBLAM and 1/3 as independent directors • Resolution on Reserved Matters requires at least 2 votes from BBLAM * NRTA: Net Revenue Purchase and Transfer Agreement BTSGIF General Presentation Section I: BTSGIF at a Glance 6 BTSGIF At a Glance Secure net farebox revenue transferred to BTSGIF BTSGIF revenue
I. Net farebox revenue (transferred to BTSGIF daily) II. Incentive fee
PAYABLE BY BTSGIF TO BTSC ONLY WHEN FAREBOX REVENUE net of OPERATING CAPITAL EXPENSES EXPENDITURE NET FAREBOX REVENUE EXCEEDS BUDGET
. All farebox revenue from Cost relevant to the New rolling stock for 1. NO INCENTIVE FEE passengers in the Core BTS Core BTS SkyTrain the Core BTS If actual net farebox revenue ≤ 100% SkyTrain system system such as SkyTrain system to of Budget . Other revenue and • maintenance expense, serve future ridership compensation from any • staff cost, 2. 10% INCENTIVE FEE person under, arising out of or On actual amount exceeding 100% • electricity, etc. relating to concession or the but not exceeding 125% of budget farebox revenue of the Core BTS SkyTrain system 3. FEE FROM ITEM 2 PLUS 15% OF THE . Excludes revenue from O&M INCREMENTAL AMOUNT EXCEEDING business extension, media 125% business and revenue from If actual amount > 125% of budget BTSC’s other business
BTSGIF General Presentation Section I: BTSGIF at a Glance 7 Contents
Page
I. BTSGIF at a Glance 4
II. BTSGIF Investment Highlights 9
III. BTSGIF Performance Summary 18
IV. Conclusion 22
Appendix
Background of Infrastructure Funds (IFFs) 24
BTSGIF’s Structure 27
Initial Assets and O&M Business (BTSGIF’s Call Option) 29
Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network 30
Targeted Lines by BTS Group 31
Forecast of Farebox Revenue, Costs and Additional Investment Project until FY 29/30 and FY19/20 Guidance 33
BTSGIF Performance 39
Suksa Wittaya Station (S4) 47
Historical Fare Adjustment 48
BTSGIF General Presentation 8 BTSGIF Investment Highlights
1 Attractive industry dynamics and strong government support • Government’s plan is to expand mass transit network from 121.6km currently to 515.2km in 2029 • Market share of mass transit is expected to increase from 13% to over 33% in 2037 • The Thai government has made explicit its policy to develop Bangkok’s infrastructure by investing in mass transit projects
Resilient business with proven track record 2 • Ridership has showed resilient growth, pass through several situations (CAGR 8.2% since inception)
Exclusive concession with flexibility to increase fares 3 • Able to increase fare in the core network without BMA’s or national government’s approval, in case under the authorised fare
4 Efficient operations with significant operating leverage • Sustainable margin from the strong operational performance and operating leverage • Good margin compared to regional mass transit peers
5 Ample capacity for future growth with limited CAPEX • Additional 46x 4-car trains to accommodate passengers in existing network and new Green Line extensions (3x4 car trains will be allocated to BTSGIF and will be used in the Core Network)
BTSC’s personnel with extensive experience in the mass transit business 6 • Developer: BTS core network constructed in 35 months
• Operator: 18-years’ experience in operating the SkyTrain green line network
Substantial investment opportunities from accretive mass transit expansion 7 • RoFR and call option on BTS existing contracts (30-yr O&M contracts and concession extension) as well as new mass transit lines by BTS • Also able to seek out non-BTS related infrastructure opportunities and focus on projects with strong cash flow potential
BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 9 BTSGIF Investment Highlights 1. Attractive industry dynamics and strong government support
Existing lines (121.6km; 85 stations) Rail mass transit master plan (515km, year 2029E),
BLUE 33% share of Mass Transit commute by 2037 TAO POON - HUA LAMPHONG 21.2km 19 stations
PURPLE ARL KLONG BANG PHAI – PHAYATHAI - TAO POON SUVARNABHUMI 23.0km 16 stations 28.5km 8 stations
LIGHT GREEN NATIONAL STADIUM – BANG WA DARK GREEN 14.0km 13 stations MO CHIT – KHEHA 34.9km 31 stations
Rail mass transit target by government Sources: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning and Bangkok Metro Politian Administration Rail length target (km) Rail mass transit Pervasion (rail track length 515.2 market share per mn population) • Hong Kong 49% . Hong Kong 34.7 • Singapore 46% . Singapore 39.1 • Tokyo 48% . Tokyo 41.6 107.8 109.6 121.6 74.2 84.8 • Bangkok 13% . Bangkok 11.2 * Percentage of people using rail mass transit over other forms of mass transit Sources: OTP, Singapore’s Land Transport Authority, Hong Sources: United Nations Statistics Division, BTSC, BMCL, 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2029E Kong’s Transport Department, MTR Corporation Limited, MTR Corporation Limited, SMRT Corporation Limited, Source : Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning. SMRT Corporation Limited, Japan Statistic Bureau official websites of rail mass transit system in major cities BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 10 FY 00/01 FY 2 BTSGIF Section BTSGIF General Presentation . Resilient serviceopening Dec . .
59 RIDERSHIP YRS):RIDERSHIP CAGR (3 1,419 GROWTH (18 YRS) (18 GROWTH
9 Ridership CAGR: Farebox 9: 9: INITIAL INITIAL GROWTH FY 01/02 FY BTS BTS II:
79 BTSGIF Investment SkyTrain MRT MRT (Blueline)System 04: Jul 1,780
revenue CAGR: revenue
FY 02/03 FY business with proven track Opening of of Bangkok Opening InvestmentHighlights
96 8.2%
2,122
FY 03/04 FY 21% 9.2%
105
2,294 Highlights
FY 04/05 FY
118 2,573
rate increase 07: Mar
FY 05/06 FY RIDERSHIP YRS):RIDERSHIP CAGR (5
132
Firstfare 2,817 STABLE STABLE GROWTH
Farebox revenue (THB mn) (THB revenue Farebox
FY 06/07 FY
139 3,066
May May 09 record FY 07/08 FY
133
: 3,224
Opening of of Opening
5 Opening of of Bangkok BRT; Opening Line % FY 08/09 FY
Thai political
Aug 10: 10: Aug 136 extension 3,292 AirportRail Link Silom
FY 09/10 FY Opening of of Opening
144 May 10: 10: May p rotests
3,485 trips) (mn Ridership
FY 10/11 FY
Dec 13: 145
Nov 13: 3,545
farebox Wongwian FY 11/12 FY
176 Thai political protests Thai political Jun 13: 13: Jun Oct opening Bearingextension 11: Aug
4,297 Apr 13: 13: Apr revenue to to BTSGIF revenue extension openingextension
–
Nov11
FY 12/13 FY Yai Fare increase
On Nut
197 Sale of Saleof net –
RIDERSHIP YRS)RIDERSHIP CAGR (10 Bang
: Floods 4,896
– FASTER FASTER GROWTH
Wa FY 13/14 FY
215
5,677 Promotionadjustment Jan 16 Jan Jul 15: 15: Jul Aug 17: 17: Aug
Apr Cards Promotion FY 14/15 FY Aug 16: 16: Aug 218.7 : 30 StoredValue 17: 17: on MRT on MRT Cancellation Opening of of interchangethestationOpening System( - 5,874 Day Cards Opening of of Opening
Opening of of Opening
FY 15/16 FY 6 System 232.5 % Purple line)Purple
increaseextensionfare 6,397 Oct 17 : Samrong
(Blue & (Blueline) Purple MRT MRT FY 16/17 FY 238.0
Fare increase
6,636 station andstation
Dec 18: FY 17/18 FY 241.2 Southern GreenSouthern 6,821
Opening of of Opening
+2.4% - Ridership FY 18/19 FY 0.1% 241.0 Fare Line 11 YoY
YoY 6,962
BTSGIF Investment Highlights 3. Exclusive concession with flexibility to increase fares
Fare adjustment mechanism Distance-based fare by number of stations
THB 60.3 EFFECTIVE FARE 53.6
. Can be adjusted no more than once every 18 months by making 46.9 announcement to BMA and public 30 days in advance . Must not exceed the Authorised fare 40.2 44.0 33.5 40.0 37.0 AUTHORISED FARE 26.8 33.0 AUTHORISED FARE (APR’13) 30.0 20.1 26.0 PRESENT EFFECTIVE FARE (OCT’17) . Normal situation: upon change of Bangkok’s CPI >=5%, may adjust up to 7% 23.0 POTENTIAL FARE UPSIDE (No approval required) 16.0 . Special situation: upon change of CPI (>= 9%), USD/THB foreign exchange rate, interest rate or electricity costs (BMA approval required) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 NO. OF STATIONS
Historical average fare Ridership by ticket types ONE-DAY PASS 1% THB / Trip FY18/19 AVG FARE THB 36.8 5% SJT
FY18/19 AVG FARE THB 32.6
1%
30-DAY PASS (STUDENT)* 33%
29.0 29.0
FY18/19 AVG FARE THB 22.1 6%
28.3 28.3
27.9 27.9 29%
34%
27.5
26.9 26.9 28%
26.4 26.4 FY17/18
FY18/19
24.8 24.8 30-DAY PASS (ADULT)*
24.4 24.4 24.4
FY18/19 AVG FARE THB 27.4 31% PURSE (Stored Value Card)* FY18/19 AVG FARE THB 27.6 32% FY 10/11 FY 11/12 FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 * Counted as Rabbit Cards (66%) BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 12 BTSGIF Investment Highlights 4. Efficient operations with significant operating leverage
Ridership growth with sustained margin expansion EBITDA margin comparison with regional peers
29.0 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 258260 29.5 254256 28.3 250252 27.9 28.5 69.0% 68.8% 248 27.5 66.1% 244246 242 26.9 238240 27.5 234236 26.4 241 241 232 238 43.2% 228230 26.5 41.1% 41.9% 224226 233 220222 25.5 216218 212214 219 210 215 24.5 206208 202204 198200 23.5 194196 190192 22.5 BTS Sky Train* Hong Kong MTR** FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Core BTS SkyTrain Ridership (mn trips) Fare (THB per trip) *FY ending 31 Mar 2017, 2018, 2019 **FY ending 31 Dec 2016, 2017, 2018 Key costs breakdown Historical maintenance and overhaul (THB mn) Capital expenditures 4% 5% 11% 11% 16% 15% 5% 6% 6% 22% General maintenance expenses Major overhaul expenses Administrative and other 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2% 4% 4% 5% expenses 1% 1% 1% 3% Selling expenses 23% 21% 20% 18% 1% 18% 16% 95 Property insurance premium 75 124 115 25% 25% 24% 21% 22% 20% 79 85 Utilities expenses 383 381 352 Maintenance costs 34% 31% 33% 35% 36% 33% 339 342 341
Employees expenses FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 (Fund establishment) to 31 March 2014. BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 13 BTSGIF Investment Highlights 5. Ample capacity for future growth with limited CAPEX
Current Fleet NO. OF TRAINS TOTAL CARRIAGES CAPACITY INCREASE INDICATIVE CAPEX (CUMULATIVE) (THB mn) X35 105 FULLY PAID X12 48 FULLY PAID
35 FULLY PAID Already operated in May 2013
X5 20 FULLY PAID AlreadyAlready fully fully operated operated in in Feb Feb 2014 2014 Total Current Fleet X52 208 Fleet Expansion X22*** 88 +42.3% Expect to order in 2017,To be expect completely to be delivereddelivered byin 2019 ~THB 9.8bn X24 96 +32.4% To be completely delivered by 2020
Total Future Fleet X46 184 SYSTEM DESIGN CURRENT CAPACITY CAPACITY * Passenger per hour per direction based on 6-car trains and 2min frequency in sky line OF 50,000 PPHPD* OF 25,000** PPHPD ** Based on 4-car trains and 2.4min frequency in sky line (Sukhumvit Line) *** The 3 new four-carriage trains (totaling 12 carriages) will be added to the core line. Cost to be allocated to BTSGIF is estimated at THB 652mn.
BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 14 BTSGIF Investment Highlights 6. BTSC’s personnel with extensive experience in the mass transit business
The BTSC team is composed of personnel with extensive experience in the mass transit business
• 18-year track record Reliable • All operations conducted in-house operations team • Service reliability recognised globally to be of a high standard
• Maintained full service operation and suffered no major asset damage during natural disasters
• Lloyd’s Register: Certificate of Safety Management Systems Impeccable safety • OHSAS 18001:2007: Certificate of Cleanliness and Safety • record ISO9001:2008 • No major system accidents in the past 18-year operation
• Mr. Keeree Kanjanapas • Dr. Anat Arbhabhirama Executive Chairman Executive Committee Member / Strong Chairman of Advisory Committee management • Mr. Surapong Laoha-Unya • Mr. Kong Chi Keung expertise Executive Director / Chief Executive Officer / Executive Committee Member / (Acting) Chief Administrative Officer Chief Financial Officer
BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 15 BTSGIF Investment Highlights 7. Substantial investment opportunities from accretive mass transit expansion
Existing BTS SkyTrain (48.9km under O&M contracts) Future Green extension zone II and Pink & Yellow Monorail Lines 25.4km of existing extensions & 23.5km of core network (post 2029) 17.8km New Extension and 64.9km Pink & Yellow Monorail Lines
PINK EXT. ZONE II KHAE RAI – MIN BURI NORTHERN GREEN LINE 34.5KM EXT. ZONE I : 12.8KM MO CHIT - KHU KHOT 17.8KM EXT. ZONE I SAPHAN TAKSIN – EXT. ZONE II : 17.8KM YELLOW BANG WA LAD PRAO – SAM RONG 7.5KM EXT. ZONE I 30.4KM ONNUT – BEARING 5.3KM GOLD PHASE 1
KRUNG THONBURI BTS STATION – KHLONG SAN EXT. ZONE II : 12.6KM 1.8KM
EXT. ZONE II 81.2km targeted lines by BTS Group in the next 5 years BEARING - KHEHA BTS TARGET ROUTE AUTHORITY DISTANCE NO. OF EXPECTED 12.6KM (KM) STATION OPERATING GREEN EXT. BANG WA - TALING CHAN BMA 7.0 6 2022-2023 BTSC to receive pre-determined annual O&M fee for the O&M for BTS existing (WESTERN) contracts (O&M contracts and concession extension) LRT BANG NA - SUVARNABHUMI BMA 18.3 14 2022 I. Green line extension zone I (ending 2 May 2042) GREY PHASE 1 WATCHARAPHON – THONG LO Sukhumvit Extension (On Nut – Bearing) BMA 16.3 15 2022 Silom Extension (Saphan Taksin – Bang Wa) ORANGE (E) THAILAND CULTURAL MRTA 22.6 17 2023 II. Green line extension zone II (ending 2 May 2042) CENTER - MIN BURI ORANGE (W) TALING CHAN - THAILAND MRTA 17.0 12 2023 Sukhumvit Extension (Bearing - Kheha) CULTURAL CENTER III. Core SkyTrain System after concession expires (12 years from 5 Dec 2029 to 2 May 2042) Under construction
BTSGIF General Presentation Section II: BTSGIF Investment Highlights 16 Contents
Page
I. BTSGIF at a Glance 4
II. BTSGIF Investment Highlights 9
III. BTSGIF Performance Summary 18
IV. Conclusion 22
Appendix
Background of Infrastructure Funds (IFFs) 24
BTSGIF’s Structure 27
Initial Assets and O&M Business (BTSGIF’s Call Option) 29
Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network 30
Targeted Lines by BTS Group 31
Forecast of Farebox Revenue, Costs and Additional Investment Project until FY 29/30 and FY19/20 Guidance 33
BTSGIF Performance 39
Suksa Wittaya Station (S4) 47
Historical Fare Adjustment 48
BTSGIF General Presentation 17 BTSGIF Performance Summary Financial performance summary
Income Statement (THB mn) FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 1 BTSGIF has achieved remarkable total income growth since Total income 3,983.7 4,497.4 4,593.5 4,712.4 4,620.7 inception. For FY 18/19, ridership remained at 241.0mn trips, annual average fare at THB 29.0, increase of 2.4% YoY. 1 Income from investment in NRTA 3,957.2 4,475.3 4,576.0 4,696.3 4,603.0 Total fund expense (THB mn) (464.0) (476.9) (110.9) (90.9) (95.3) 2 Net investment income (to be paid to unitholders). 2 Net investment income (THB mn) 3,519.7 4,020.5 4,482.6 4,621.5 4,525.4 3 Total distribution available to unitholders 3,889.7 4,391.5 4,498.8 4,621.5 4,525.4
Balance Sheet (THB mn) 3 BTSGIF paid its total distribution to unitholders in 2 forms i) dividend payment (at least 90% of adjusted net profit) NAV 65,488.4 66,783.6 67,025.8 66,588.0 60,119.3 ii) capital reduction from amortisation of fund issuance cost (for 4 Interest bearing Debt - - - - - FY 13/14 to FY 15/16) and from a decrease in value of Available amount for capital reduction 370.0 371.0 16.2 - - Investment (NAV).
Per unit Data (THB per unit) 4 Currently, BTSGIF has no interest bearing debt. Per IFF criteria, BTSGIF NAV per unit 11.3145 11.5382 11.5801 11.5045 10.3868 is able to leverage at maximum of 3 times of equity.
Dividend per unit 0.606 0.692 0.772 0.798 0.611 Capital return per unit 0.125 0.064 0.000 0.000 0.169 Core network ridership and fare Total distribution available to unitholders 0.731 0.756 0.772 0.798 0.780 29.0 per unit 28.3 27.9 Capital per unit (beginning period) 10.800 10.675 10.611 10.611 10.611 27.5 26.9 26.4 FY 18/19 241 241 Ridership Key ratio 238 233 -0.1% YoY Dividend yield* 5.6% 6.5% 7.3% 7.5% 5.8% 219 FY 18/19 4 Debt/Equity No leverage 215 Fare +2.4% YoY
* Dividend per unit / capital per unit FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Core BTS SkyTrain Ridership (mn trips) Fare (THB per trip)
BTSGIF General Presentation Section III: BTSGIF Performance Summary 18 BTSGIF Performance Summary Key financial highlights
Revenue (gross farebox revenue) Income from investment in NRTA
THB mn 7.4% 8.9% THB mn 13.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 4.9% 2.2% 2.6% -2.0%
6,963 6,397 6,636 6,821 5,874 5,470 4,475 4,576 4,696 4,603 3,774 3,957
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Farebox revenue Farebox revenue Growth (%YoY) Income from investment in NRTA (EBITDA) Income from investment in NRTA (EBITDA) Growth (%YoY) FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 Net investment income* Total distribution available to unitholders**
14.2% 12.9% 11.5% THB mn THB mn 5.0% 4.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% -2.1% -2.1%
4,622 4,525 4,499 4,622 4,525 4,021 4,483 3,890 4,392 3,353 3,520 3,707
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Total distribution available to unitholders Net investment income Net investment income Growth (%YoY) Total distribution available to unitholders Growth (%YoY) FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 FY 13/14 started from 17 April 2013 to 31 March 2014 *Income from investment in NRTA less fund expenses **Total distribution available to unitholders includes capital reduction (paid from excess cash of fund) BTSGIF General Presentation Section III: BTSGIF Performance Summary 19 BTSGIF – Financial Performance Summary Constant return to unitholders through dividend payment and capital return Distribution to unitholders Top 10 unitholders (10 Jun 2019)
(Total distribution of THB 25.6bn or THB 4.416 per unit since IPO) No. of Unit % of total 1 BTS GROUP HOLDINGS PLC 1,929,000,000 33.3% DISTRIBUTION 2 BANGKOK LIFE ASSURANCE PCL 375,239,000 6.5% - Dividend policy: in aggregate for each financial year, payout shall not be less than 90% 3 SOUTH EAST ASIA UK (TYPE C) NOMINEE LIMITED 358,162,770 6.2% of adjusted net profit1, if the Fund has sufficient retained earning (more than once a year) 4 SOCIAL SECURITY OFFICE 226,634,000 3.9% - Capital return Policy: to return excess liquidity (if any; i.e. cash from amortisation of 5 LAND AND HOUSE BANK PCL 225,074,300 3.9% fund issuance costs, unrealised loss (non-cash expense)) by way of decreasing unit value. 6 LH FINANCIAL GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY 165,460,800 2.9% 7 KRUNGTHAI-AXA LIFE INSURANCE PUBLIC 158,561,200 2.7% COMPANY LIMITED 8 MR.KEEREE KANCHANAPAS 98,703,580 1.7% Capital Return Dividend 9 THAI LIFE INSURANCE PCL 74,075,000 1.3% 10 MUANG THAI LIFE INSURANCE PCL 61,975,700 1.1%
0.756 0.775 0.798 0.780 Unitholders breakdown by type (10 Jun 2019) 0.640 0.670 0.692 0.772 0.798 0.611 Individual - 0.579 0.606 Foreign, 0.4% Institutional - Foreign, 8.8% BTS Group, 33.3% 0.003 0.000 0.169 0.061 0.125* 0.064 Individual - FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Thai, 19.9% Total 5,788 mn shares
1Adjusted net profit = BTSGIF net profit less unrealised gain from the appraisal of assets and other adjustment items to be in line with the cash-basis of BTSGIF Institutional - *From excess cash for the period from 17 Apr 2013 to 31 Mar 2015 Thai, 37.7%
BTSGIF General Presentation Section III: BTSGIF Performance Summary 20 Contents
Page
I. BTSGIF at a Glance 4
II. BTSGIF Investment Highlights 9
III. BTSGIF Performance Summary 18
IV. Conclusion 22
Appendix
Background of Infrastructure Funds (IFFs) 24
BTSGIF’s Structure 27
Initial Assets and O&M Business (BTSGIF’s Call Option) 29
Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network 30
Targeted Lines by BTS Group 31
Forecast of Farebox Revenue, Costs and Additional Investment Project until FY 29/30 and FY19/20 Guidance 33
BTSGIF Performance 39
Suksa Wittaya Station (S4) 47
Historical Fare Adjustment 48
BTSGIF General Presentation 21 BTSGIF Conclusion
Investment Highlights
Delivering on Investors Expectation • Yield through dividend payment and capital reduction • Tax benefit (exempt 10% income tax from dividend receipt for 10 years for individual)
Security • Creditor step-in rights • 1/3 of BTSC board membership are nominated by the Fund • BTSG pledges all of its BTSC shares (97.5%) to guarantee BTSC’s obligations
Sponsor Alignment of Interest • 1/3 holding by BTS Group • 10 years lock up until 2023
Growth Opportunities • Resilience ridership and flexibility to increase fare • Acquisition growth:- . Call option and RoFR for BTS existing and future lines - 48.9km (25.4km of existing extensions & 23.5km of core network post 2029) under O&M contracts - 84.5km future extension and new lines - 81.2km ongoing projects targeted by BTS Group . Non-BTS infrastructure projects with strong cashflow potential
Ability to Leverage • Able to leverage up to 3 times of equity
BTSGIF General Presentation Section IV: Conclusion 22 Contents
Page
I. BTSGIF at a Glance 4
II. BTSGIF Investment Highlights 9
III. BTSGIF Performance Summary 18
IV. Conclusion 22
Appendix
Background of Infrastructure Funds (IFFs) 24
BTSGIF’s Structure 27
Initial Assets and O&M Business (BTSGIF’s Call Option) 29
Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network 30
Targeted Lines by BTS Group 31
Forecast of Farebox Revenue, Costs and Additional Investment Project until FY 29/30 and FY19/20 Guidance 33
BTSGIF Performance 39
Suksa Wittaya Station (S4) 47
Historical Fare Adjustment 48
BTSGIF General Presentation 23 Infrastructure Funds (IFFs) Appendix: Background of Infrastructure Fund
What is an Infrastructure Fund? 12 categorised assets in Infrastructure Fund
1. Rail mass transit 8. Alternative energy An Infrastructure Fund is an entity that raises capital 2. Power plant 9. Water supply management/ from the public to invest in 12 infrastructure assets. 3. Water supply Irrigation Infrastructure Assets 10. Assets Owner 4. Toll road/ Express way Natural disaster preventive system 5. Airport 11. Waste management Infrastructure Fund 6. Deep seaport 12. Multi-infrastructure relevant to 7. Telecommunication 11 types above
Investor Public Investors Key benefits of Infrastructure Fund
Tax efficient investment vehicle that allows public market participants Purpose of Infrastructure Fund (institutional and retails) access to yield generating infrastructure investments.
Government and Capital Market Regulatory Bodies’ initiative • To develop the country's infrastructure IFF is exempted from corporate income tax in Thailand • To allow access to infrastructure projects for a broader range of investors Dividends received by individuals (Thailand and non-Thai) will be exempt from income tax for 10 years • New financing alternative in order to speed up country’s infrastructure projects and to release public debt burden Payout of not less than 90% of adjusted net income p.a.
24
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Background of Infrastructure Fund 24 Key features of IFFs Appendix: IFF is an alternative tax efficient structure and high payout vehicle
Infrastructure Fund (IFF) Property Fund (PFUND) Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Permissible investment assets • 12 specified infrastructure assets Invest in specified types of real estates • Invest in specified real estates and under positive list (whether leasehold or or • Able to invest in green field projects freehold) • Wholly own (not less than 99% of i) not exceed 30% of total assets and sell shares) a company established as the to public (>= 500 buyers, list the REIT (property holding business) investment units in SET) • Able to invest in green field projects ii) exceed 30% of total assets and sell to (with some limitations) high net worth investors (HNW) only (>= 35 buyers, must list the investment units within 3 years after completion) Foreign Investment Allowed (but only for projects that benefits Not allowed Allowed widely to public in Thailand) Investment Requirement Must invest at least 75% of total asset value Must invest at least 75% of NAV in real Must invest at least 75% of total asset value in infrastructure assets no later than 6 estates or the leasehold rights of real in real estates or the leasehold rights of months from the fund registration date estates real estates Minimum paid-up capital THB 2,000mn THB 500mn THB 500mn after the offering (THB mn) Leverage Not exceed 3 times of equity Not exceed 10% of net asset value Not exceed 35% of total asset value (given no investment credit rating) Not exceed 60% of total asset value (the REIT obtains an investment credit rating) Dividend payout Minimum of 90% Minimum of 90% Minimum of 90% of annual adjusted net profit of annual adjusted net profit of annual adjusted net profit For individual (Thai & foreign): exempt tax For Thai individual: 10% WHT on dividend For individual (Thai & foreign): 10% WHT on dividend for 10 years / no tax on capital / no tax on capital gain on dividend / no tax on capital gain gain For Thai corporate: 20% CIT for dividend For Thai corporate: 10% WHT on dividend Tax implication For Thai corporate: 20% CIT for dividend (Exempted 50% for non-listed & 100% for / 20% CIT for dividend / 20% CIT for capital (investor level) (Exempted 50% for non-listed & 100% for listed company) / 20% CIT for capital gain gain listed company) / 20% CIT for capital gain For foreign individual & corporate: N/A For foreign corporate: 10% WHT on For foreign corporate: N/A dividend / N/A for capital gain
Total market capitalisation* THB 355bn (currently 8 funds in Thailand) THB 422bn (currently 60 funds/REITs in Thailand) *As of 31 May 2019 BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Key features of IFFs 25 Infrastructure Funds in Thailand Appendix: Total market cap of THB 355bn* BTSGIF ABPIF DIF JASIF EGATIF BRRGIF TFFIF Info & Transportation & Info & Communication Transportation & Sector Energy & Utilities Communication Energy & Utilities Energy & Utilities Logistics Technology Logistics Technology BTS Group Holding AMATA B. Grimm TRUE Corporation Jasmine international Electricity Generating Buriram Sugar Public Expressway Authority Sponsor Name / Public Co., Ltd Power Co., Ltd Public Co., Ltd Public Co., Ltd Authority of Thailand Co., Ltd of Thailand % of shares* (33.33%) (29.97%) (25.79%) (19.00%) (25.00%) (33.05%) (MOF held 10.00%) First-day Trade 19 Apr 2013 27 Sep 2013 27 Dec 2013 16 Feb 2015 13 Jul 2015 7 Aug 2017 31 Oct 2018 Size of fund Cap during IPO 62.5 6.3 58.1 55.0 20.9 3.6 45.7 (THB bn) Initial Par Value 10.80 10.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.30 10.00 (THB) No. of Units (mn) 5,788 600 9,637.9 5,500 2,085.5 350 4,570 Market Cap* 61.4 3.5 153.2 56.1 25.7 3.3 51.6 (THB bn) Underlying Future net farebox Revenue Sharing Right to the rental Ownership of 980,000 Future Availability Right to the Net Right to receive 45% Asset revenue to be Agreement with revenues of 6,332 core kilometers fiber Revenue obtainable Revenue Purchase of the Net Toll generated from the “B.Grimm 1 and telecommunication optic network for from North Bangkok and Transfer Revenue collected operation of the B.Grimm 2” which towers and broadband internet of Power Plant Block 1, a Agreement of from the initial Core BTS SkyTrain carry out power plant ownership of 8,939 Triple T Broadband plc. Contracted Capacity Buriram Energy Co., expressways for a System until the business until Sep telecommunication (TTTBB). The lease of of 670 MW, which is Ltd. (expiry date on period of 30 years Concession Expiry 2019 and Sep 2022 towers, core fiber- 80% of fiber optic operated and owned 10 Aug 2028) and from the Transfer Date, which is Dec respectively in Amata optic cable grids and network will expire Feb by EGAT, for the Buriram Power Co., Date in the Revenue 2029 Nakorn Industrial related transmission 2026. The remaining period of 20 years Ltd., (expiry date on 6 Transfer Agreement Estate, Chonburi equipment (FOC 20%, JASIF can renew April 2035),the or RTA system), according to the contract every 3 subsidiaries of HSPA lease agreement years Buriram Sugar Public in which will expire Company Limited on Aug 2026 and (BRR) ownership of FOC, broadband network Mgmt Company BBLAM KAsset SCBAM BBLAM KTAM BBLAM KTAM & MFC
BTSGIF General Presentation * Information as of 31 May 2019 or earlier available Appendix : Infrastructure Funds in Thailand 26 BTSGIF Structure Appendix: Transaction structure Transaction Structure
BTSG Public Investors BTSC is awarded a concession from BMA
33.3% 66.7% • BTSC has rights to operate the system and to receive revenue from the core 23.5 km (in full) Cash payment of purchase price from providing services to the public. Other BTSG’s BTSC BTSGIF • At the end concession, BTSC will need to Businesses Transfer of transfer assets to BMA. Future Net Revenue
• BTSC also provides O&M service to BMA to operate extension part of sky-train and is thus Other BTSC’s SkyTrain Receive Net entitled to receive O&M fee from BMA Businesses Business Future Revenue BTSGIF purchases all future net revenue from BTSC until the end of concession Conceptual Framework
• BTSC continues to operate the system under Net Revenue Operating Assets the concession BTSGIF is entitled to receive farebox revenue from BTSC owns assets (including new assets invested BTSC, net of relevant operating cost and capital during BTSGIF life) and some assets to be • BTSC will transfer net revenue to BTSGIF (i.e. expenditure transferred to BMA at the end of concession revenues less operating expenses and capital expenditure) Key Protection Mechanism for BTSGIF Investor Protection 1 Protection 2 Protection 3 Right to participate in Contractual obligations / corporate governance of BTSC Step-in-mechanism covenants on BTSC and BTSG and its business
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Transaction structure 27 BTSGIF Structure Appendix: Structure of Step-in Mechanism
BTSC BTSGIF BTSG BTSGIF
1. Net Revenue Purchase and Transfer Agreement 2. Sponsor Support and Guarantee Agreement
• BTSC to deliver net cash from the core BTS skytrain business to • BTSG to maintain shareholding in BTSC and not to create any
BTSGIF encumbrances over BTSC’s shares
• • BTSGIF can propose to be BTSC’s board of director for 1/3 To vote for person nominated by BTSGIF to be BTSC board of director • Reserved matters shall be approved by at least 2 director • BTSG to pledge BTSC’s shares (97.5%) to guarantee obligations representatives from the Fund • Guarantee BTSG’s obligation under the Net Revenue Purchase
Agreement • BTSGIF approves the operating budget and Transfer Agreement (Liability to BTSGIF limited to the transfer or value of BTSC shares) • BTSGIF has right to purchase and right of first refusal to invest in BTSC’s assets • BTSGIF has right to purchase and right of first refusal to invest in BTSG’s assets • Criteria for new borrowing and new investment of BTSC
BTSGIF can step-in in case of default under 1 or 2
BTSGIF BTSG
3. Share Sales and Purchase Agreement 4. Share Pledge
• BTSGIF has its right to buy BTSC’ shares • BTSG pledges shares in BTSC to BTSGIF and share certificates in Mechanism in
- will be deposited with the Trustee • Exercisable upon EOD under the Net Revenue Purchase and
Transfer Agreement, e.g. breach agreement by either BTSG or • Enforceable by BTSGIF upon breach of BTSG Undertaking or Step BTSC BTSG Corporate Guarantee
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Structure of Step-in Mechanism 28 BTSGIF Appendix: Initial assets and O&M business (BTSGIF’s call option)
Core BTS SkyTrain system (Initial assets) O&M Business (Call Option)
SUKHUMVIT EXTENSION Mo Chit – Khu Khot 17.8 km
DARK GREEN MO CHIT – ON NUT CORE NETWORK 17.0km
LIGHT GREEN NATIONAL STADIUM – SUKHUMVIT EXTENSION SAPHAN TAKSIN On Nut – Kheha 6.5km 17.9 km SILOM EXTENSION Saphan Taksin – Bang Wa 7.5km
. 30-year concession (ending 4 Dec 2029) to exclusively collect BTSC to receive pre-determined annual O&M fee for the operation ridership fare (and bear related expenses and capital and maintenance of the system expenditure) Green line extension (ending 2 May 2042) . 23 stations over 23.5 km in CBD: Connecting Bangkok’s most important business and tourist destinations o Sukhumvit Extension (On Nut – Kheha / Mo Chit – Khu Khot) . All investments made by BTSC: Including civil works, E&M and o Silom Extension (Saphan Taksin – Bang Wa) trains (except land acquisition) from private sector sources Core SkyTrain System after concession expires (ending 2 May 2042) . No revenue sharing or concession fees for BMA BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Initial assets and O&M business (BTSGIF’s call option) 29 BTSGIF Appendix: Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network
EXISTING LINES – 121.6KM; 85 STATIONS DISTANCE OPERATING LINE ROUTE (KM) SINCE DARK GREEN BLUE MO CHIT – ON NUT 17.0 DEC 99 (CORE) TAO POON - HUA LAMPHONG LIGHT GREEN NATIONAL STADIUM – 6.5 DEC 99 21.2km (CORE) SAPHAN TAKSIN PURPLE TAO POON – KHLONG BANG BLUE 21.2 JUL 04 HUA LAMPHONG PHAI – TAO POON LIGHT GREEN SAPHAN TAKSIN – 23.0km 2.2 MAY 09 (EXTENSION) WONGWIAN YAI AIRPORT LINK PHAYATHAI – SUVARNABHUMI 28.5 AUG 10 (RED LINE) DARK GREEN ON NUT – BEARING 5.3 AUG 11 (EXTENSION) ARL PHAYATHAI - LIGHT GREEN WONGWIAN YAI – BANG WA 5.3 DEC 13 SUVARNABHUMI (EXTENSION) LIGHT 28.5km KHLONG BANG PHAI – PURPLE 23.0 AUG 16 GREEN TAO POON NATIONAL DARK GREEN STADIUM – BEARING – SAMRONG 1.8 APR 17 (EXTENSION) BANG WA DARK GREEN 14.0km SAMRONG - KHEHA 10.8 DEC 18 (EXTENSION) DARK GREEN MO CHIT – KHEHA EXTENSIONS TO OUR CURRENT CORE NETWORK CORE NETWORK 34.9km
WEEKDAY RIDERSHIP MARKET SHARE IN 2018 (JAN-DEC)
Total Average Weekday 371,447* (31%) 80,000 (7%) 741,056 (62%) Ridership of 1,192,503 trips *BEM ridership excluded purple line, BTS ridership and BEM ridership based on company’s website as of 2018, while ARL ridership was based on information as of DEC 18.
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Existing Bangkok Mass Transit Network 30 BTSGIF Appendix: Targeted lines by BTS Group : Focused on 5 lines in next 5 years 81.2km interested line in next 5 years Line Route Authority Targeted operate year Construction progress No. of station Distance (km) BLUE HUA LAMPHONG - BANG KHAE MRTA 2020 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 11 14.0
BLUE BANG SUE - THA PRA MRTA 2020 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 9 13.0
GREEN (NORTHERN) MO CHIT - KHU KHOT BMA 2020 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 16 17.8
PINK KHAE RAI - MIN BURI MRTA Oct 2021 30 34.5
YELLOW LAD PRAO - SAM RONG MRTA Oct 2021 23 30.4
GOLD (PHASE I) KRUNG THON BURI – KLONG SAN BMA Sep 2020 3 1.8
GREEN EXT. (WESTERN) BANG WA - TALING CHAN BMA 2022-2023 6 7.0
LRT BANG NA - SUVARNABHUMI BMA 2022 14 18.3 81.2 GREY (PHASE I) WATCHARAPHON - THONG LO BMA 2022 15 16.3 km ORANGE (EASTERN) THAILAND CULTURAL CENTER - MIN BURI MRTA 2023 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 17 22.6
ORANGE (WESTERN) TALING CHAN - THAILAND CULTURAL CENTER MRTA 2023 12 17.0
BLUE BANG KHAE - BHUDHAMONTHON 4 MRTA 2021 4 8.0
PURPLE (SOUTHERN) TAO POON - RAT BURANA MRTA 2022 17 23.6
DARK RED BANG SUE – HUA LUM PHONG SRT 2020 5 6.5
DARK RED BANG SUE - RANGSIT SRT 2021 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 8 26.3
LIGHT RED BANG SUE – PHAYATHAI – MAKKASAN – HUAMAK SRT 2020 9 19.0
LIGHT RED BANG SUE – TALING CHAN SRT 2021 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 4 15.0
Total (km) 291.1
Note: *Excluding 6 stations in ARL CORE AND EXTENSIONS TO BTS CURRENT LINES LINES CONNECTING TO BTS LINES
Sources: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, State Railway of Thailand, Ministry of Transport, Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (BEM), BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited (BTS) BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Targeted lines by BTS Group 31 BTSGIF Appendix: Targeted lines by BTS Group
EASTERN ORANGE LINE • Thailand Cultural Center – Min Buri (22.6km) • Expected O&M award: 2019 • Target operation: 2023
WESTERN ORANGE LINE • Taling Chan – Thailand Cultural Center (17.0km) • Expected O&M award: 2019 GREY LINE • Target operation: 2023 • Watcharaphol – Rama 9 Bridge (26.0km) • Expected bidding (phase I): 2019 • Target operation (phase I): 2022
Phase I: Watcharaphol – Thong Lo (16.3km)
LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT (LRT) • Bang Na – Suvarnabhumi (18.3km). • Expected bidding: 2019 WESTERN GREEN LINE EXTENSION • Target operation: 2022 • Bang Wa – Taling Chan (7.0km) • Expected O&M award: 2019 • Target operation: 2022-2023
Sources: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, Ministry of Transport, BTS Group Holdings PCL. BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Targeted lines by BTS Group 32 Appendix: ForecastedRidership until FY 29/30 by BTSGIF Appendix: Forecast of ForecastAppendix: BTSGIF General Presentation Projectedridership
(2) (1) Note:Ltd. Appraisal(Thailand)For from byreport(AA).valuation AmericanThesewereprojections FY 13/14A, derived ridersh
YoY YoY Forecasted ridership per the Fund the per ridership Forecasted Actual ridership Actual
growth forecastedof MVAper compared the to (FY19/20). Fundridership comparingIf FY theper to in forecasted MVA ridership growth forecastedof theper (FY19/20) Fundridershipcompared to actual(FY18/19). ridership 214.7 (FY 18/19 (FY
1.9% 218.7
Ridership Ridership
3.9% ridership until FY 29/30 FY 29/30 until ridership CAGR – 6.3%
FY 29/30) FY
232.5
2.4%
238.0
1.3%
241.2
YoY growth (%) growth YoY (Thailand) MVA Systra per ridership Forecasted (FY 18/19 (FY - 0.1% 241.0 3.1%
CAGR Fare 7.0% –
FY 29/30) FY
257.9
(1)
262.6 3.2%
266.1 (2) Systra
4.5% 278.0
MVA (Thailand) 3.5% (FY 18/19 (FY 287.8
FB Revenue FB 7.2% CAGR
4.6% –
FY 29/30) FY 301.2
ip
was was year of for FY fullthe13/14. 2.6%
308.9 19
/20, /20, the 4.3% 322.2 YoY
growth would be 1.3% growth1.3% would be . 0.7%
(FY 18/19 (FY 324.4
Net Net
9.1% FB Revenue FB 4.4% CAGR
– 338.8
FY 29/30) FY
4.2% 353.2
4.1% 367.5
33
BTSGIF Appendix: New lines as a key contributor to the expected ridership CAGR of 3.9%
Already operated + 84.5 KM IN NEXT 3 YRS Already secured, to be operated 3.9% CAGR
YoY ridership growth (FY18/19 – FY29/30)
Expected YoY ridership growth + 17.9 KM DURING THE PAST 6 YRS 4.5%
2.3% CAGR 3.2% Yellow Line (FY13/14 – FY18/19) Pink Line 7.0%
Gold Line
64.9 1.3% -0.1% Northern Green 2.4% Line 6.3% Lad Prao Wongwian Yai Southern Green - Talad Phlu* Intersection 1.9% Line 17.8 Talad Phlu Samrong 1.8 - Bang Wa* 1.8 10.8 5.3 68.5 48.9 50.7 31.0 36.3 36.3 36.3 36.3 38.1
FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22
RIDERSHIP CAGR OF 2.3% EXPECTED CAGR OF 3.9% (FY13/14- FY 18/19) (FY18/19- FY 29/30) NEW LINES 17.9 KM ADDITIONAL SECURED LINES 84.5 KM
*Feb 13: Wongwian Yai – Talad Phlu (2 stations) Dec 13: Talad Phlu– Bang Wa (2 stations) BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Targeted ridership growth 34 Appendix: Forecastof BTSGIF Projected Appendix: Forecast of ForecastAppendix: BTSGIF General Presentation Note:Ltd. Appraisal(Thailand)For from byreport(AA).valuation AmericanThesewereprojections FY 13/14A, derived (2) (1)
YoY YoY
growth theof forecast to MVAper comparedFundthe (FY19/20). If to comparingforecast the FY19/20, MVAper the growth theof forecast Fundtheper (FY19/20) compared to actual (FY18/19) 5,677
farebox Forecasted Actual Actual 3.5%
5,874
farebox farebox 8.9% farebox
6,397 revenue
revenue
revenue
revenue per the Fund the per revenue Farebox 3.7%
6,636 until until
derived FY 29/30 29/30 FY 2.8%
6,821 Revenue until FY 29/30 by
fromvaluation report
2.1
6,962 %
7.4
7,478 % (1)
7,619
10.9
8,292 % (2)
Farebox revenue growth (YoY) growth revenue Farebox (Thailand) MVA Systra per revenue farebox Forecasted 5.0%
8,707
Systra 10.8% 9,648
farebox MVA (Thailand) 4.9%
YoY 10,125
revenue was was revenueyear of for FY fullthe13/14.
farebox 8.9%
revenue growth revenuewould8.8 be 11,023
5.7% 11,654
6.9% 12,455
%. 6.3%
13,234
6.1% 14,045
6.0% 10,116 4,772
35
Appendix: ProjectedNet BTSGIF Appendix: Forecast of ForecastAppendix: BTSGIF General Presentation Note: Note: (2) (1)
c YoY YoY ashflow Net
growth of the forecast perMVA growth of the forecast perthe Fund (FY19/20) compared to actual (FY18/19) 3,774
c
ashflow growth 4.9%
Forecasted Forecasted net 3,957 Actual net
would be has deducted net cash flow until until flow net cash 13.1% 4,475 cashflow
17.3%. 17.3%.
c ashflow 1.5% additional investment costs for the construction and improvement of S4 and stationsS6
4,543
Cashflow
& Infra Asia compared FY 29/30 29/30 FY
per 3.4%
4,696 the Fund
-
2.0% until FY 29/30 from Valuation Report 4,603
7.6 to to the Fund (FY19/20). If comparing to the forecast per
4,951 % 5,092 (1)
20.6
5,973 % (2) Net cashflow growth (YoY) growth cashflow Net (Thailand) Asia Infra & (Thailand) cashflow net perSystra MVA Forecasted
1.8% 6,079
17.1% 7,120
6.3% 7,572
10.9%
8,398
6.2% MVA and Infra Asia FY19/20 8,918 .
8.3% 9,659
9.4% 10,566
7.0% , the 11,308
net 6.3% 8,167 3,664
36
BTSGIF Appendix: Costs and additional investment projection Key costs guidance Normalised guidance p.a. (THB mn) % of total from FY 19/20 to FY 28/29 (10 years) OPEX 2,338 89% *Maintenance expenses mainly composed of Siemens lump-sum contracts for current and Maintenance expenses* 813 31% new coming 3 trains, expected THB 480mn p.a. Staff cost 749 29% (avg on a smooth basis) and the non-Siemens Utilities expense 510 19% lump-sum contract (in-house P&C maintenance). Others 266 10% CAPEX 205 8% Source: Estimated by the Fund based on Infra Others 188 7% Asia forecast and assumptions as of May 2019 and updated CAPEX and additional investment Rolling stocks 17 1% from BTSC. Except FY 19/20 total costs were Additional Investment 69 3% based on BTSC budget. Total costs and additional investment 2,612 100% Costs and Additional Investment Projection Unit: THB mn OPEX CAPEX (others) CAPEX (rolling stocks) Additional Investment
2,736 2,796 2,737
2,527 2,629 2,528 2,553 2,625 2,668
2,359 2,319
2,093 2,125
1,917 1,922 1,948
1,696
2,587 2,587
2,541 2,541
2,574 2,574
2,443 2,443
2,220 2,220
2,481 2,481
2,395 2,395
2,314 2,314
1,917 1,917
1,851
1,907 1,907
1,804 1,804
1,727 1,727
1,828 1,828
1,702 1,702
1,710 1,710
1,620 1,620 83 262 251 171 424 167 165 - 190 - 170 75 - 207 - 220 - 33 150 - 84 - 181 247 219 45 158 - 144 - 162 - 209 - 225 - 196 - 120 - FY 13/14A FY 14/15A FY 15/16A FY 16/17A FY 17/18A FY 18/19A FY 19/20 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30
Sources: Estimated by the Fund based on valuation report from American Appraisal (Thailand) Ltd. which the forecast and assumptions were based on Infra Asia (Thailand) Ltd.’s report in May 2019 and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except for FY 19/20 was based on BTSC budget. BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Costs and additional investment projection 37 BTSGIF Appendix: Ridership Target and CAPEX Guidance FY19/20 Ridership Target FY19/20 CAPEX Guidance (revised)
• CAPEX of THB 429, mainly comprises of
I. Rolling stocks of THB 167 mn
II. AFC upgrade of THB 64 mn
III. Station improvement of THB 50mn Ridership Growth IV. Radio upgrade of THB 43 mn 4 - 5% V. Others of THB 105 mn
This CAPEX excludes construction of station S4 and improvement of
station S6 which are recorded as investment in NRTA.
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Ridership Target and CAPEX Guidance 38 BTSGIF Performance Appendix: BTSGIF Income Statement
FY 18/19 FY 17/18 FY 16/17 FY 15/16 (Unit: THB mn) (1 Apr 18- (1 Apr 17 - (1 Apr 16 - (1 Apr 15 - 31 Mar 19) 31 Mar 18) 31 Mar 17) 31 Mar 16) Income from investment in NRTA 4,603 4,696 4,576 4,475 Interest income 18 16 18 22 Total Income 4,621 4,712 4,594 4,497 Fund management fee and expenses 85 81 83 82 Amortisation of issuance costs - - 16 371 Other expenses 10 10 12 24 Total Expenses 95 91 111 477 Net Investment Income 4,525 4,621 4,483 4,021 Total Unrealised Gain on Investments (6,300) (400) 367 1,390 Increase in Net Assets resulting from Operations (1,775) 4,221 4,850 5,411 Net Investment Income Margin (%) 97.9% 98.1% 97.6% 89.4% THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend) (1,775) (0.306) 4,221 0.729 4,483 0.774 4,021 0.694 Add back excess liquidity from - Unrealised loss on investments (to be paid as dividend from retained 6,300 1.088 400 0.069 earning) - Amortisation of issuance cost (to be paid as capital reduction in the - - - - 16 0.003 371 0.064 future) Total distribution available to unitholders 4,525 0.781 4,621 0.798 4,499 0.777 4,392 0.758
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: BTSGIF Income Statement 39 BTSGIF Performance Appendix: BTSGIF Income Statement
4Q 4Q 3Q FY FY Unit (THB mn) % YoY % QoQ % YoY 18/19 17/18 18/19 18/19 17/18 Income from investment in NRTA 987.1 1,155 (14.6)% 1,214.4 (18.7)% 4,603.0 4,696 (2.0)%
Interest income 5.0 3.5 41.3% 4.5 11.9% 17 16 9.4%
Total Income 992.1 1,159.3 (14.4)% 1,218.9 (18.6)% 4,620.7 4,712 (1.9)%
Fund management fee and expenses 21.6 19.2 12.7% 20.7 4.6% 84.8 81 4.7%
Other expenses (9.4) (10.7) 12.5% 1.3 (846.3)% 10.5 9.9 5.8%
Total Expenses 12.2 8.5 44.7% 22.0 (441)% 95.3 90.9 4.8%
Net Investment Income 979.9 1,150.8 (14.9)% 1,196.9 (18.1)% 4,525.4 4,621.5 (2.1)%
Total Unrealised Gain (Loss) on Investments (5,300.1) 0.1 N/A (999.9) (430.1)% (6,300.0) (399.9) (1,475.2)%
Increase in Net Assets resulting from Operations (4,320.2) 1,150.9 (475.4)% 197.0 (2,292.6)% (1,774.6) 4,221.6 (142.0)%
Net Investment Income Margin (%) 98.8% 99.3% 98.2% 97.9% 98.1%
THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit Net income available to the unitholders (4,320.2) (0.746) 1,15.08 0.198 (475.4)% 197.0 0.034 (2,292.6)% (1,774.6) (0.306) 4,221.6 0.729 (142.0)% (to be paid as dividend) Add back excess liquidity from - unrealised loss on investments 5,300.1 0.915 - - - 999.9 0.172 (430.1) 6,300 1.088 399.9 0.069 1,475.2% (to be paid as capital return) Total distribution available to unitholders 979.9 0.169 1,150.8 0.198 (14.9)% 1,196.9 0.206 (18.1)% 4,525.4 0.781 4,621.5 0.798 (2.1)%
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: BTSGIF Income Statement 40 BTSGIF Performance Appendix: BTSGIF Total Income from Investment in NRTA
FY 18/19 FY 17/18 FY 16/17 (Unit: THB mn) (1 Apr 18 – (1 Apr 17 – % YoY (1 Apr 16 – % YoY 31 Mar 19) 31 Mar 18) 31 Mar 17)
Farebox revenues 6,963 6,821 2% 6,636 3%
Total O&M costs 2,360 2,125 11% 2,060 3%
Employees expenses 786 759 4% 720 5%
Maintenance costs 468 464 1% 427 9%
Utilities expenses 384 376 2% 367 2%
Property insurance premium 21 22 (2)% 27 (18%)
Selling expenses 78 82 (5)% 82 0%
Administrative and other expenses 115 101 14% 104 (3%)
Capital expenditures 508 321 58% 333 (4%)
Total income from investment in NRTA 4,603 4,696 (2)% 4,576 3%
Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 66.1% 68.8% 69.0%
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: BTSGIF Total Income from Investment in NRTA 41 BTSGIF Performance Appendix: BTSGIF Total Income from Investment in NRTA
Unit (THB mn) 4Q 18/19 4Q 17/18 % YoY 3Q 18/19 % QoQ FY 18/19 FY 17/18 % YoY
Farebox revenues 1,768.8 1,731.8 2.1% 1,791.8 (1.3)% 6,962.5 6,821.3 2.1%
Total operating and maintenance costs 781.7 576.0 35.7% 577.4 35.4% 2,359.5 2,125.0 11.0%
Employees expenses 152.3 165.5 (8.0)% 246.8 (38.3)% 785.5 759.2 3.5%
Maintenance costs 130.8 129.4 1.1% 112.8 16.0% 467.6 464.2 0.7%
Utilities expenses 94.2 93.7 0.6% 94.9 (0.7)% 384.2 375.7 2.3%
Property insurance premium 21.4 21.8 (1.8)% 0.1 N/A 21.5 21.8 (1.6)%
Selling expenses 11.6 22.9 (49.4)% 20.1 (42.3)% 77.8 82.2 (5.3)%
Administrative and other expenses 32.2 33.7 (4.4)% 32.9 (2.3)% 114.8 101.1 13.6%
Capital expenditures 339.2 109.0 211.0% 69.8 385.7% 508.1 320.8 58.4%
Total income from investment in NRTA 987.1 1,155.8 (14.6)% 1,214.4 (18.7)% 4,603.0 4,696.3 (2.0)%
Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 55.8% 66.7% 67.8% 66.1% 68.8%
BTSGIF General Presentation 42 Appendix: BTSGIF Total Income from Investment in NRTA BTSGIF Performance Appendix: BTSGIF Balance Sheet
(Unit : THB mn) 31 Mar 2019 31 Mar 2018 31 Mar 2017 31 Mar 2016
Investment in NRTA 59,100.0 65,400 65,800 65,400 (at cost) 61,432.1 (61,432) (61,432) (61,399)
Investment in Securities and Cash 1,173.5 1,216 1,192 1,413
Other Assets 4.9 65 50 23
Total Assets 60,278.4 66,681 67,042 66,836
Total Liabilities 159.1 93 16 52
Net Asset Value 60,119.3 66,588 67,026 66,784
Capital Received from Unitholders 61,416.5 61,417 61,417 61,787
Retained Earnings (1,297.2) 5,171 5,609 4,997
NAV per Unit (THB) 10.3868 11.5045 11.5801 11.5382
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: BTSGIF Balance Sheet 43 BTSGIF – Financial Performance Summary Historical Distribution
TOTAL RETURN - Dividend policy: in aggregate for each financial year, payout shall not be less than 90% of adjusted net profit1, if the Fund has sufficient retained earning (more than once a year) - Capital return policy: to return excess liquidity (if any; i.e. cash from amortisation of fund issuance costs (non-cash expense)) by way of decreasing unit value. 7.3% 7.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.6% 6.5% 0.579 Capital Return 0.772 0.798 0.780
0.731 0.756
Dividend
0.151
0.167
0.000
0.138
0.209
0.207
0.206
0.203 0.203
0.200
0.196 0.15
0.192 Total Return
0.189
0.188 0.188
0.154
0.158
0.179
0.178
0.156
0.168
0.117
0.161
2
0.169 0.077 0.048 0.064
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dividend Yield (%) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 1Adjusted net profit = BTSGIF net profit less unrealised gain from the appraisal of assets and other adjustment items to be in line with the cash-basis of BTSGIF 2Dividend Yield = total dividend per unit / capital (based on par of THB 10.800 in FY 13/14 - FY14/15, THB 10.675 in FY15/16 and THB 10.611 since FY 16/17 and # actual days)
Dividend Payout Accumulated Dividend for the Year Capital Return No. Dividend Period (THB per unit) (THB per unit) No. Capital Return Period (THB per unit) 1 - 4 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2014 0.579 0.579 5 - 8 1 Apr 2014 – 31 Mar 2015 0.606 0.606 1 17 Apr 2013 – 30 Jun 2014 0.077 9 - 12 1 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016 0.692 0.692 2 1 Jul 2014 – 31 Mar 2015 0.048 13 - 16 1 Apr 2016 – 31 Mar 2017 0.772 0.772 3 1 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016 0.064 17 - 20 1 Apr 2017 – 31 Mar 2018 0.798 0.798 4 1 Jan 2019 – 31 Mar 2019 0.169 21 1 Apr 2018 – 30 Jun 2018 0.196 Total 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2019 0.358 22 1 Jul 2018 – 30 Sep 2018 0.209 0.611 23 1 Sep 2018 – 31 Dec 2018 0.206 Total 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Dec 2018 4.058
BTSGIF General Presentation Section III: BTSGIF Performance Summary 44 BTSGIF Performance Appendix: Historical Ridership & Fare YEARLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH YEARLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH 6.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 1.3% -0.1% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4%
29.0 28.3 241.2 241.0 27.9 238.0 27.5 232.5 26.9
218.7
FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (%YoY) Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (%YoY)
SUMMARY EXPLANATION
FY 18/19 FY 18/19 Ridership: marginally decreased partly due to train services Ridership 241.0mn trips, disruption during June 2018 as well as fewer weekdays, more long- -0.1% YoY weekends than in the previous year and passengers’ sensitivity to the fare increases in the core skytrain network. Average fare THB 29.0/trip, (excluding free-trip +2.4% YoY Average fare: increased largely as a result of a full year effect from allowance) the fare increase since Oct 2017 and adjustments to the Average weekday 744,475 trips, promotional price for stored-value cards since Apr 2018. ridership +0.1% YoY If deducting the free-trip allowance, average fare would go up by 2.1% YoY.
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Historical Ridership & Fare 45 BTSGIF Performance Appendix: Historical Ridership & Fare QUARTERLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH QUARTERLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH
0.2% 1.5% 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% -1.5% -1.5% 0.6% 1.5% 0.6% 7.1% 1.3% -1.0% -0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% -0.8% -0.4% -5.0% 61.6 61.2 61.1 60.2
57.1 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.1* 29.0
4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19 4Q 17/18 1Q 18/19 2Q 18/19 3Q 18/19 4Q 18/19 Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (% QoQ) Ridership Growth (% YoY) Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (% QoQ) Average Fare Growth (% YoY)
* Excluding the impact of free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption
SUMMARY EXPLANATION 4Q 18/19 4Q 18/19 Ridership: Ridership 61.1mn trips, +1.5% YoY, -0.8% QoQ • YoY increased mainly supported by the full opening of Southern Green Line Extension (Bearing-Kheha) on 6 Dec 2018. Average fare (excluding impact of THB 29.0/trip, • QoQ decreased from lower days in this quarter. free-trip allowance) +0.6% YoY, -0.4% QoQ
Average fare (including impact of free- THB 29.0/trip, trip allowance) +0.6% YoY, -0.5% QoQ Average weekday ridership 757,480 trips, +1.8% YoY, +0.9% QoQ
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Historical Ridership & Fare 46 BTSGIF Appendix: Suksa Wittaya Station (S4)
Project details Tentative timeline
15 Oct 2015 BMA Approval • 570m from Surasak station (S5) and 610m from Chong Nonsi station (S3) 2.5 months Jan 2016 Submission of bidding document • Side platform station similar to S3 and S5 with 3 months typical stairs and escalator Apr 2016 Winner announcement with final price
• Total investment cost ~THB 650mn 2 months Jun 2016 Trustee Approval • The Fund will provide 50% of the investment cost, 2 months using existing cash Aug 2016 Construction contract signed
34 months Additional FY 2020/21E 2Q 2019 Expected BMA approval (first operating year) and construction expected to start Ridership ~10,000 trips / weekday 18 months Gross farebox revenue ~THB 112mn p.a. 4Q 2020 Construction expected to finish and 1Q 2021 Net farebox revenue ~THB 85mn p.a. S4 targeted operation
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Suksa Wittaya Station (S4) 47 BTSGIF Appendix: Historical Fare Adjustment
Avg Annual YoY Annual No. Detail Date Adjustment Fare / trip Fare Growth
Increased effective fare (SJT) FY 07/08 1 Increase in SJT Mar 07 +9.5% YoY from THB 10-40 to THB 15-40 = THB 24.2 Increased effective fare (SJT) FY 13/14 2 Increase in SJT Jun 13 +6.5% YoY from THB 15-40 to THB 15-42 = THB 26.4
Promotional Increased STV card to effective fare (SJT) FY 14/15 3 Jan 14 +1.6% YoY Adjustment but gave discount THB 1 per trip = THB 26.9
Promotional FY 15/16 4 Jul 15 Removed discount on monthly pass +2.4% YoY Adjustment = THB 27.5
Promotional FY 16/17 5 Jan 16 Removed THB 1 per trip discount on STV card +1.3% YoY Adjustment = THB 27.9 Increased effective fare (SJT) FY 17/18 6 Increase in SJT Oct 17 from THB 15-42 to THB 16-44 and +1.4% YoY = THB 28.3 Increased monthly pass card by THB 1 per trip Promotional Increased STV card to effective fare (SJT) FY 17/18 7 Apr 18 +1.4% YoY Adjustment but gave discount THB 1 per trip = THB 28.3
BTSGIF General Presentation Appendix: Historical Fare Adjustment 48