NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Overall crop and pasture production expected to be average to above-average

KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes, October 2014  Good rainfall accumulation and distribution from late July to late September 2014 combined with a generally calm crop pest situation will lead to average to above-average cereal and pasture production during the main growing season.

 From December 2014 to March 2015, the availability of irrigated crops will help strengthen and diversify food access and consumption for households currently consuming their own cereal stocks. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity conditions will prevail in October and continue through March 2015 in most parts of the country.

 However, with poor households earning less income from Source: FEWS NET labor and livestock sales, the department of Nguigmi () will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October 2014 through This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for March 2015, despite cash-for-work programs planned for and emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here. funded by the government. Beginning in March, agropastoral areas of and pastoral areas of will also experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) as poor households face difficulties meeting their non-food needs.

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Most likely estimated food security outcomes for NATIONAL OVERVIEW October through December 2014 Current situation

Continued regular rainfall through late September 2014 provided enough water to allow crops to reach maturity. Harvests of all rainfed cereal and cash crops are ongoing, with yields generally expected to be above average. This will be the case everywhere except for certain departments in the regions of Tillabéri, , and Diffa, where the combined effects of the delayed start and abrupt end to the rains in early September prevented crops from reaching maturity.

According to the estimates of the joint FEWS NET/USGS/Agrhymet mission conducted in September 2014, all the conditions are in place to project above-average crop production in the regions of Source: FEWS NET and Maradi and average to above-average production in Zinder. The same estimates predict average to above-average Most likely estimated food security outcomes for yields of cash crops, particularly cowpeas, sesame, and January through March 2015 groundnuts.

In addition to normal rainfall and a phytosanitary situation characterized by low levels of pressure from pests, the growing season was also relatively unaffected by flooding. Reported cases of flooding affected approximately 68,000 people and 2,817 hectares of cropland, down from 166,000 people and 6,872 hectares of cropland in 2013. Flooding during 2010 and 2012, the two years with the most rainfall during the last five years, affected 300,000 and 600,000 people, respectively.

Given all of these favorable factors, gross production of millet, sorghum, and rain-fed rice is estimated at more than 5.3 million metric tons and approximately 2.5 million metric tons for Source: FEWS NET cowpeas, groundnuts, and sesame. This total gross production is 20 percent higher than both last year and the average for the last This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic five growing seasons. food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here.

The current pastoral situation is generally typical in terms of pasture regenration and the replenishment of watering holes. In most pastoral zones (, , , and Gouré), pasture production is estimated to be above average. Animals are currently being watered at watering holes, which are still available and whose current water levels indicate they will likely dry up at the normal period. Pasture regeneration is expected to be below average to average in certain regions, though, particularly in the pastoral areas of Tchintabaraden ( area), Ouallam (), Téra (Bankilaré), and Nguigmi.

Farming and agropastoral households will meet their current consumption needs through newly-harvested crops. With three years in a row of average to above-average crop production and a good harvest outlook, household food stocks will be sufficient to meet their food needs for six to eight months (compared to an average of five to seven months), especially with the availability of horticultural crops beginning in December 2014. With this year's estimated crop production and leftover cereal stocks, apparent availability could be around 250 to 300 kilograms per person for the year.

Newly-harvested cereal and cash crops will constitute the majority of crops found on the markets and will follow traditional domestic trade routes. Local supply levels will be average to above average in October 2014, particularly for cowpeas, which are primarily sold to cover social spending. The average national prices of the primary cereals consumed were between 219 and 232 FCA in September 2014, with millet and sorghum prices 15 percent lower and maize prices 23 percent lower than at the same time last year. However, prices have begun to reflect normal seasonal trends.

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Pastoral households are consuming food bought with income from livestock sales, ensuring normal food consumption levels. With Tabaski and year-end holiday celebrations, demand for livestock will be high during the months of October, November, and December, and prices and terms of trade will be at or above the five-year average. This situation will translate into the usual reconstitution of household cereal stocks with income from livestock sales.

Cereal and cash crop sales are currently the primary sources of income for farming and agropastoral households and are generating normal levels of income. The need for farm labor for ongoing harvests is providing local employment opportunities. However, given good crop production levels, the local labor supply is lower than the demand. Less available labor will translate into 2014 prices that are 50 percent higher than in 2013, or the equivalent of 6 kilograms of millet earned a day compared to 2.5 to 3 kilograms of millet earned a day during the same period last year, given the drop in cereal prices. Despite good pasture production, demand for straw will remain normal given widespread fattening practices. The average sale price of a bundle of straw is 500 to 750 CFA, the same price as last year.

The provisional results of the July 2014 national child nutrition survey indicated a global acute malnutrition rate of 14.8 percent, up from the five-year average of 13.2 percent, and a severe acute malnutrition rate of 2.7 percent, up from the five- year average of 2.3 percent. The biggest rises in global acute malnutrition were recorded in the regions of Tahoua and , up 23 and 28 percent, respectively, from average rates. The biggest rises in severe acute malnutrition rates were recorded in the regions of Maradi (59 percent above average), Tillabéri, and (both 24 percent above average). However, acute malnutrition rates could fall throughout the country with the improvement in household food access in October.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for the period from October 2014 through March 2015 described below was established based on the following underlying assumptions with respect to trends in nationwide conditions:  In October-December, there should be adequate market supplies of crops from producers and traders, who will have access to local and imported products from Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Benin, and . Trade flows in the southeastern part of the country will be slowed by the effects of the conflict with Boko Haram.  In December, receding water levels and the opening of cereal fields (which are generally off-season sites), combined with good water and input availability, will result in the normal performance of the dry horticultural season, which usually accounts for 30 percent of annual production. The level of locally produced crops is therefore expected to rise from December 2014 to March 2015.  Good water availability will favor sustained demand for local labor and higher wage rates throughout the period from December through March. Demand and prices for cereal harvesting labor and maintaining and harvesting rain-fed and irrigated dry season crops will be normal from October through March with good water conditions expected to result in good production levels.  Migration and remittance income will be normal from November-December through March. The economic and political situations in traditional destination countries will be normal, with the exception of northeastern Nigeria and Libya, which will attract less migrant labor due to the sociopolitical crises in both countries.  On the whole, pastoral resources will remain average until March 2015. Based on the outlook for a normal rainy season, there will be an adequate supply of surface water for the watering of livestock from October through March and an abundant supply of pasture in pastoral zones.  Cereal prices will remain in line with seasonal trends and the five-year average in October-December but will rise slightly in January-March, as usual, with the normal functioning of domestic and cross-border cereal flows everywhere except for the far eastern part of the country due to the effects of the conflict with Boko Haram.  Animal prices will rise as usual from October-December 2014 until January-March 2015 with better livestock body conditions than during the last few months and high consumer demand. Terms of trade for livestock/cereals will be above average in October-December due to high demand surrounding the holidays but will return to normal in January-March 2015.  From December to March, producers' organizations and government structures will take advantage of good crop production to reconstitute their reserve stocks to an optimal level and maintain sufficient quantities of food available to meet consumer demand.

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

 The government assistance plan for the outlook period will be carried out in December-March in the form of cash for work programs but will be delayed due to funding problems.  Given food security conditions, the nutritional situation is expected to follow normal seasonal trends from October through March.

Most likely food security outcomes

With average to above-average crop production expected in the country's main growing regions, food availability and access will be ensured throughout the post-harvest period by households' own cereal stocks. The availability of local products combined with the expected yields in cereal importing countries (primarily Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin) suggest that cross-border trade flows will function normally, strengthening domestic trade flows. This situation will translate into satisfactory market supply levels. Cereal prices will be in line with the seasonal average in October-December and will rise in January-March with pressure on demand for reconstituting government food security stocks and trader, pastoral household, and deficit household stocks. During this period, households will earn typical seasonal incomes. Typical levels of food access will therefore be observed in most parts of the country from October through March, resulting in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity conditions.

However, there will be localized difficulties, primarily in the agropastoral area of Ouallam (Tillabéri region) and pastoral areas of Nguigmi and Tchintabaraden, where some poor households will experience difficulties meeting their food needs due to crop and livestock production deficits and the deterioration of economic opportunities. Livelihood protection deficits will be observed in October-March in pastoral areas of Nguigmi and beginning in March in the agropastoral area of Ouallam and the pastoral area of Tchintabaraden, even though households there will be able to meet their minimum food needs. Thus, from October through March, pastoral areas of Nguigmi will remain under Stress (IPC Phase 2), while agropastoral areas of Ouallam and pastoral areas of Tchintabaraden will become Stressed (IPC Phase 2) beginning in March.

AREAS OF CONCERN

Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism Zone of Nguigmi (Livelihood Zone 3)

Annual rainfall in this primarily livestock-raising area ranges from 100 to 200 mm. On average, very poor and poor households have one or two large animals, four to six small animals, and a few head of poultry. The main sources of income are sales of animals and animal products, the tending of livestock herds, sales of wood/charcoal and straw, and migrant remittances. The main sources of food for household consumption are market purchase, household animal production, gifts/charity, and in-kind wages. Household expenditures are on food purchases (millet and sorghum), purchases of animal feed in April-May-June, loan payments, and social spending (for feasts and other social events).

Current situation

Drivers of the current household food security situation include:  Animal watering holes and grazing pasture have been replenished, providing favorable conditions for keeping animals on their home base.  Livestock body conditions have improved along with pasture production, although there is still a pasture deficit and pasture levels will only be sufficient to meet livestock needs for two to three months instead of the average of five to six months. Drivers of market conditions include:  Markets are sufficiently supplied with locally grown maize, though most millet and sorghum supplies would be coming from Nigeria, where security problems are disrupting normal trade channels.  September 2014 prices for millet exceed the five-year average by 14 percent due in part to the civil security problems in Nigeria, disrupting trade between this area and Nigeria. Maize and sorghum prices, however, are only three to four percent above average.  Camel exports to Libya slowed to more than 30 percent below-normal throughout the outlook period.

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Drivers of livelihood conditions include:  There is a more than 50 percent decline in terms of trade for livestock/millet compared with the same time last year due to the continued decline in livestock prices.  The volume of migrant remittances has reduced to more than 40 percent below average due to the social problems in destination countries (Nigeria and Libya).  There is an average to above-average stream of income from the sale of charcoal due to sustained high demand from consumers and traders in city centers and Nigeria.  Typical demand for labor for the tending of livestock continues despite lower incomes from livestock sales. As of October of this year, there were an estimated 105,000 displaced persons in the Diffa area, concentrated mainly in the Bosso/Nguigmi, Diffa, and Mainé Soroa departments, according to OCHA data.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for the period from October 2014 through March 2015 was established based on the following assumptions:  The conflict in Nigeria will continue to disrupt cereal flows along normal trade routes. Trade flows will continue along longer routes, however, driving up prices in general and staple cereal prices in particular between October and March.  Cereal production levels in the region will be largely insufficient to make up for problems ensuring cereal supplies from October through March, and prices will continue to rise above the seasonal average more quickly than in a normal season.  Satisfactory levels of pasture availability are expected from October through December with good pasture regrowth during the rainy season. However, pasture deficits will be observed beginning in February, particularly with the presence of refugee and returnee herds and transhumant livestock herds that do not leave for Nigeria.  Livestock prices will be down from October through March with low demand resulting from the sharp decline in exports to Libya and Nigeria. This decline in livestock prices in the face of rising cereal prices will keep terms of trade 30 percent below the five-year average.  Income from the tending of livestock will remain normal throughout the outlook period due to the presence of fewer numbers of transhumant livestock herds.  Migrant workers are expected to move toward Lake Chad, where the continuous availability of water for flood- recession cropping, fishing, and pirogue transport will provide significant economic opportunities all year.  There should be normal demand for labor at normal wage rates for rainfed and flood-recession cropping in the southern reaches of the area between October 2014 and March 2015. There will be average levels of wage income from pepper growing activities and income from sales of wood/charcoal and straw throughout the outlook period.

Most likely food security outcomes

With persistent conflict in Libya and Nigeria, the main export countries for livestock from this zone, and typically low local demand for camels, livestock prices will continue to fall significantly in October-December and January-March, reducing the cereal purchasing power of poor households. However, charcoal sales and labor for the tending of livestock will provide income that will be supplemented by cash for work programs. These resources will be sufficient to meet household food consumption needs. However, poor households and refugees and returnees in this pastoral zone will not have sufficient resources to meet their non-food needs and will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity conditions from now through January and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) conditions starting in January, but only through the assistance of government programs.

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

Agropastoral Zone of Ouallam (Livelihood Zone 4)

The mainstays of the local economy of this department are agriculture (rainy season millet, sorghum, cowpea, groundnut, and earthpea production) and livestock-raising (cattle, sheep, goats, and dairy products). Annual rainfall varies widely from year to year, ranging from 400 to 600 mm. Local crop production normally covers over 40 percent of household food needs and generates 18 percent of the income of very poor and poor households. Migration and sales of bush products (wood and straw) are other important sources of cash income for the majority of local households.

Current situation

 The growing season has been marked by early planting in June followed by long periods of drought, resulting in the replanting of crops. The rains started again in the third dekad of July, became more intense in August but then were irregular during the crop reproductive phase in September, depriving millet and sorghum crops of the optimal rainfall conditions needed for normal crop development.  Millet and sorghum harvests are expected to be below average and not sufficient to meet household consumption needs. Crop production levels could be comparable to 2013, which saw a cereal deficit of 35,000 metric tons. Cash crops (cowpeas, earthpeas, and chufa nuts) for which agro-meteorological conditions were favorable will produce relatively average yields in several areas in the zone.  Heavy rains in the month of August were favorable to the growth and development of herbaceous plant cover and to the replenishment of watering holes, significantly improving livestock body conditions.  Markets are well stocked with foodstuffs such as millet, sorghum, maize, and pasta products. These products are being supplied by the typical sources, coming from countries such as Burkina Faso, Benin, Nigeria, and Mali via Niamey.  In August 2014, cereal prices (millet, sorghum, and maize) on all markets in the zone remained stable or lower than the five-year average and the same time last year due to good production levels in supply areas.  During this period, the gathering and sale of bush products (wood, straw, leaves, fruit, and séko matting) and the sale of cash crops (cowpeas) constitute the main sources of income for very poor and poor households.  Households in this zone supply firewood and straw (cowpea residues and bush straw) for animal feed in neighboring zones, especially the region of Niamey, where demand for straw is high due to the practice of fattening sheep around the Tabaski holiday.  Sales of labor for harvesting millet in neighboring zones is another source of income. Small ruminant and poultry sales are generating average and even above-average cash income in certain cases. With high demand surrounding the Tabaski holiday and good livestock body conditions, market prices are above average, particularly for male sheep.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for the period from October 2014 through March 2015 was established based on the following assumptions:  Milk production levels will be in line with the average from October through December, with average pasture production in the zone leading to the good physical condition of livestock.  Cereal stocks will be depleted earlier than normal, in January instead of February/March, and water shortages for irrigated crops will reduce local economic opportunities, leading to a longer lean season.  With the availability of pasture resources and sustained foreign demand, livestock body conditions and market values will be normal from October through March.  Demand for cereals will remain high throughout the outlook period due to more pressing needs than normal to reconstitute food stocks for deficit households, cooperatives, pastoralists, and traders.  The government's annual cash for work programs will be implemented from January through March 2015.

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

 Self-employment activities and cash income will be normal from October through March with the above-average availability of bush products.  Cereal and livestock imports and exports will proceed normally from January through March thanks to above- average availability in import zones and favorable economic conditions in livestock-importing countries.  There will be less irrigation water available due to low levels in the water table. Irrigated crop production will continue from December through March, but a shortage of irrigation water will reduce the area of land farmed and the production of market garden produce.  Workers will migrate in November-December, as usual, and remittances will remain average from November through March.  Cereal prices will rise above seasonal norms from December through March with an early increase in demand following the early depletion of household food stocks.  With higher cereal prices due to increased demand, terms of trade for livestock/cereals will be 10 to 15 percent below average from February through March.  Wages from farm labor for irrigated crops will fall due to low local demand from December through March.  Poor households will collect and sell more straw and wood to earn more income to purchase cereals from December through March.

Most likely food security outcomes From October through December, very poor and poor households will access food and meet non-food spending needs by consuming their own crops and making purchases with income earned, as usual. The nutritional situation will remain calm, with fewer malnourished children being admitted to nutritional rehabilitation centers thanks to access to food, a drop in seasonal illnesses, and the consumption of animal by-products.

From January through March, household food stocks will be depleted, irrigated crop production will be weak, and prices of all consumer products will be higher, resulting in below-average access to food. The purchase of cereals and consumption of market garden produce will allow households to meet their food needs, but their limited income will be insufficient to meet non-food needs. During the post-harvest period from October through February, the zone will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity conditions but will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) beginning in March.

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March 2015

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK Table 1. Possible events in the next six months liable to change the outlook Zone Event Impact on food security conditions Weak flows of cereals from  Decreased market supplies Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, and  More significant rise in prices Nigeria  Fewer cereals purchased by very poor and poor households Limited implementation of the  Limited mitigation of food security problems national assistance plan from  Persistent food insecurity December through March Nationwide  Hoarding of cereal stocks by large farmers and traders  Limited flow of imports and higher than expected cereal prices More sociopolitical unrest in  Larger than expected increase in the number of refugees Nigeria, accelerating the rate of  Stronger demand for cereals, larger supply of labor, and higher population displacement than expected prices  Poorer than expected purchasing power, with livelihood protection deficits Agropastoral Large influx of foreign Zone of  Early depletion of available pasture pastoralists (from Mali) Ouallam Beefing up of measures designed  Suspension of trade to close the country’s borders  Rises in prices Pastoral Zone with Nigeria of Nguigmi High increase in livestock  High livestock prices demand  Increased income

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming six months. Learn more here.

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