Opening Bell May 24, 2016

Market Outlook Today’s Highlights Indian markets are likely to open on a flattish note on the back of Results: Bajaj Finserv, , Greenply, Tech mixed global cues. On the domestic front, quarterly earnings season Mah, Colgate, Amaraja, J&K Bank, Jubilant-Life, along with movement in crude oil prices globally is likely to impact NCC, , Heidelberg, , Page Ind, NRB market sentiments in near term. Index Movement (past month)

Markets Yesterday 8200 30000 • Domestic markets ended modestly lower on mixed global cues and 8000 28000 weak currency dampened investor sentiment ahead of May expiry. 7800 26000 • US markets ended a tad lower on prospect that interest rates might 7600 24000 rise and fall in oil prices weighed on sentiments 7400 22000

3-May 5-May 9-May

27-Apr 29-Apr 11-May 13-May 17-May 19-May 23-May

Key Developments BSE (RHS) NSE (LHS)

declared its Q4FY16 results. Revenues came in at | 9374 Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd) crore, up 13.8% YoY. On a segmental basis, power segment Sensex 25,230 25,302 -0.3 -1.5 -3.4 16.7 revenues were higher that estimated at | 7025 crore (estimate of | Nifty 7,731 7,750 -0.2 -1.5 -2.7 16.6 6624 crore) while coal segment revenues came in line at | 2023 crore vs. estimate of | 2000 crore. EBITDA margins came in at Institutional Activity 20.4% for Q4FY16 vs. our estimate of 23% for the quarter. The key CY14 CY15 YTD CY16 Yesterday Last 5 Days miss stemmed due to the miss in power segment EBIT, which came FII (| cr) 99,525 16,322 10,735 -66 -893 in at 17.3% YoY, compared to 19.4% in Q4FY15. The same is DII (| cr) -30,570 66,249 10,750 -168 2,538 reiterated by fuel costs, which have gone up sharply by 73% YoY. There was one off gain of | 251 crore pertaining to regulatory World Indices – Monthly performance income of prior years. This resulted in PAT of | 360 crore. NSE BSE U.K. Nasdaq Kospi • Cipla's Q4FY16 revenues are expected to increase 3.3% YoY to | 7,731 25,230 6,136 4,766 1,944 3195.7 crore on back of InvaGen acquisition and gNexium API -2.1% -2.4% -2.8% -2.9% -3.0% supply to Teva. EBITDA margins are expected to grow 128 bps YoY Dow Jones Shanghai Germany Nikkei France 17,493 2,820 9,842 16,543 4,325 to 17.7%. Net Profit is expected to increase 15.2% YoY to | 299.1 -3.3% -3.9% -5.1% -5.2% -5.4% crore. • GSK Consumer Healthcare has temporarily suspended operations, with effect from May 21 2016, at its factory located at Nabha, Punjab

due to flash strike by the workforce

Nifty Heat Map 346.9 Power 148.2 Tata 70.7 Ambuja 212.6 1,418.0 ITC ACC 5.0% Grid 2.3% power 1.8% Cement 1.8% 1.8% Bharti 345.9 Cairn 138.1 110.2 819.6 United 2,466.6 IDEA HUL Airtel 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% Spirits 0.9% Vedanta 97.5 280.5 ICICI 221.1 921.9 Kotak 703.2 BPCL Ltd 0.6% 0.5% Bank 0.5% 0.2%Bank 0.1% 476.5 Grasim 4,211.2 978.1 86.9 3,029.8 Markets Today Tech M. Hindalco Dr Reddy 0.1%Ind 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) Commodities 370.8 Hero 2,887.6 HDFC 1,136.8 3,122.4 733.6 GAIL Ultratech HCL Tech Gold (|/10 gm) 29,579 29,729 -0.5 -1.1 18.3 -0.2% Moto -0.3% Bank -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% Silver (|/kg) 39,177 39,632 -1.1 -5.5 18.8 930.0 118.8 1,285.0 539.9 Tata 381.8 Crude ($/barrel) 48.1 48.4 -0.4 0.0 29.1 RIL BHEL M&M -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -0.7% Motors -0.7% Copper ($/tonne) NA NA NA -9.6 -2.7 Currency 3,913.9 486.5 Sun 784.6 135.7 Asian 946.6 Maruti NTPC USD/INR 67.50 67.45 0.1 -1.7 -2.0 -0.8%-0.8% Pharma -0.9% -0.9% Paints -1.0% EUR/USD 1.12 1.12 -0.1 -2.1 3.2 1,241.2 1,188.0 Bajaj 2,421.8 Indusind 1,056.3 46.9 USD/YEN 109.43 109.24 0.2 -2.7 9.9 L&T IDFC ADRs -1.1% -1.1% Auto -1.3%Bank -1.3% -1.4% HDFC Bank 63.2 63.2 0.1 -0.3 2.5 2,491.5 72.3 1,160.3 168.4 497.4 TCS PNB HDFC Ltd SBI Cipla ICICI Bank 6.7 6.7 0.6 NA NA -1.5% -1.5% -1.6% -1.7% -1.9% 28.1 28.7 -2.4 -6.7 -2.5 208.2 Bank of 131.8 1,465.1 313.6 88.7 Infosys 18.4 18.5 -0.4 -4.6 10.2 ONGC Lupin NMDC Dr Reddys Labs 44.8 44.8 0.0 -4.0 -3.3 -2.3% Baroda -2.4% -2.6% -2.8% -3.2%

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Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 20000 Key Economic Indicator Period Latest Prior Values 15000 RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 4.00% 4.00% 10000 RBI Repo Rate N/A 6.50% 6.75%

5000 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 15,703

RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 6.00% 5.75% 15,395 CPI YY Apr 5.39% 4.83% 0 17,538 16,694 14,399 14,601 Current Account Balance Q4 -7.1bln $ -8.2bln $ 16-May 17-May 18-May 19-May 20-May 23-May

Exports - USD Mar 22.72bln $ 20.74bln $ BSE Cash NSE Cash FX Reserves, USD Final w/e 361.02bln $ 361.99bln $ GDP Quarterly yy Q3 7.30% 7.40% GDP Annual 12M 7.30% 6.90% NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) Imports - USD Mar 27.79bln $ 27.28bln $ Industrial Output yy Mar 0.10% 2.00% 600000.00 Manufacturing Output Mar -1.20% 0.70% 400000.00 Trade Deficit - RBI Q4 -34bln $ -37.4bln $ Trade Deficit Govt - USD Apr 4.84bln $ 5.07bln $ 200000.00 466,914

WPI Food yy Apr 4.23% 3.73% 401,500 271,522 292,288 329,386 321,724 WPI Fuel yy Apr -4.83% -8.30% 0.00 WPI Inflation yy Apr 0.34% -0.85% 16-May 17-May 18-May 19-May 20-May 23-May WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy Apr 0.71% -0.13% NSE Derivative

Sectoral Index Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Sector Close Previous Change % Change Volume Auto 17955.35 18070.2 -114.85 (0.64) 1547000 Real Estate 3.8 Mid Cap -0.3 Banks 18651.83 18739.83 -88 (0.47) 6386000 BSE Small Cap -1.4 BSE Small Cap 11792.74 11901.39 -108.65 (0.91) 66926000 Consumer Durables -2.0 Capital Goods 12939.83 13058.94 -119.11 (0.91) 3529000 Banks -2.0 Consumer Durables 11702.54 11673.35 29.19 0.25 196000 IT -2.1 FMCG 8304.6 8368.14 -63.54 (0.76) 1023000 FMCG -2.2 Healthcare -2.8 Healthcare 17870.57 18140.06 -269.49 (1.49) 1830000 Capital Goods -3.2 IT 11396.98 11501.95 -104.97 (0.91) 1254000 Auto -4.0 Metals 7432.59 7461.02 -28.43 (0.38) 4414000 Power -4.4 Mid Cap 10993.02 11070.76 -77.74 (0.70) 64406000 Oil & Gas -4.8 Oil & Gas 9003.84 9065.63 -61.79 (0.68) 1260000 PSU -6.5 Metals -7.3 Power 1804.76 1799.41 5.35 0.30 6887000 PSU 5944.16 5980.53 -36.37 (0.61) 13278000 -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 Real Estate 1357.37 1367.09 -9.72 (0.71) 11769000 (%)

Key News for Today Company/ News View Impact Industry Auto Sector The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has We believe banning of old diesel vehicle; in ordered that no diesel vehicle aged more than order to meet the environmental norms is 10 years should be allowed to ply in Kerala likely to result in higher replacement demand and has also temporarily banned registration going forward. The scrapping of old vehicles of new diesel vehicles >2,000cc. If any vehicle would result into incremental volume growth is found violating the norms after 30 days, it for the OEM's. However in the near to medium would be liable to pay | 5,000 per violation as term; it may impact some firms which have environmental compensation. higher dependence on volumes which are >2,000 cc. Defence To untangle the logjam over the strategic Such a move is likely to expedite decision Sector partnership (SP) model, being showcased as making on large platform projects like anchor of Make In India initiative in defence armoured fighting vehicles, aircraft, sector, the ministry has roped in the industry helicopters, submarines, in-turn making Indian with the setting up of 5 consultation groups companies beneficiaries of large defence will make recommendations on manufacturing projects. defence equipment.

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Infosys Commerzbank awards five year contract to Commerzbank, the second largest bank in Infosys Germany which finances more than 30% of Germany’s foreign trade, selected Infosys for a five year contract. As part of the contract Infosys will remodel investment banking IT architecture, optimise IT processes and evaluate a post-trade processing utility. Infosys would also set up an exclusive online and physical academy for Commerzbank to enable cross-skilling and continuous learning. DealcouldhelpInfosystosustaingrowth momentum Spirits & As per media sources Tamil Nadu Chief Tamil Nadu which contributes ~14% of the Breweries Minister has passed order imposing certain liquor volumes would initial impact the state restrictions on liquor shops. The order stated volumes; however as experienced earlier with close down 500 liquor shops and curtailing these restrictions the residents would start operating hours to 12 pm to 10 pm (earlier 10 procuring alcohol from nearby states am to 10 pm)

Key developments (Continued…) • For Q4FY16E, we expect Amara Raja Batteries revenue to grow 19.3% YoY to | 1276 crore. Further, with average lead prices (key raw material) are up 3.9% YoY & 5.7% QoQ to | 118/kg in Q4FY16 EBITDA margins are expected to contract 51 bps QoQ to 18.2%. Adjusted PAT is likely to grow 28.9% YoY to | 138 crore. • Bajaj Finserv's Q4FY16 life business expected to remain weak with 4% YoY premium growth. Healthy growth seen in general insurance and finance business with 22.5% and 41.3% YoY growth in premium and top-line, respectively. Consolidated PAT seen de-growing 20% YoY to | 563 crore led by 45% YoY fall in life insurance profit as policyholders fund get transferred quarterly instead of the earlier practice of an annual shift in Q4. General insurance and finance segment PAT growth to remain healthy at 9.1% and 47% YoY • Bajaj Finance's Q4FY16 is not expected to be as strong as seasonally strong Q3 but it would be decent. AUM is expected to increase 35% YoY to | 43782 crore led by consumer finance segment. LAP book to decline further to | 7823 crore as the company moves to direct to customer model than outsourcing model earlier. NIMs may slide QoQ to 10% from 12% in Q3. No major glitch expected on asset quality front. PAT of | 335 crore is estimated, up 45% YoY • We expect Colgate-Palmolive to report 3.4% YoY growth in net sales to | 1056.8 crore and ~5% volume growth in toothpastes. We estimate operating margins at 22.5% and YoY de-growth of 3.3% in net profit to | 158.2 crore • Tata Global Beverages is likely to post 4% growth in revenues to | 1949.9 crore led by 4.3% growth in tea segment & flat growth in coffee segment. Estimated operating margin is 8.7% & net profit is | 81.9 crore • Heidelberg's volumes may rise 7.5% YoY (up 7.1% QoQ) to 1.2 MT in Q4FY16. Realisations may decline 1.5% YoY (down 1.4% QoQ) to | 3,645/tonne. EBITDA/tonne is expected to be flat YoY (up 9.4% QoQ) to | 578/tonne. PAT is expected to improve 69.6% YoY (55.5% QoQ) mainly due to higher EBITDA margin and lower tax expenses. • Q4 is a seasonally weak quarter for Wonderla mainly due to examination. As a result, on a QoQ basis, we expect revenues to decline 18.5%. However, on a YoY basis we expect revenues to increase 12.7% YoY mainly led by a price hike. We expect revenues from Bengaluru park and Kochi park to increase 16.2% YoY and 13.1% YoY, respectively. EBITDA margin is expected to increase 155 bps mainly led by operating leverage benefit. • Bayer AG has made a all cash bid to acquire Monsanto (US), valuing the company at US$ 62 billion. Bayer proposes to acquire shares of Monsanto at US$ 122/share and proposes to fund the deal with a mix of Debt & Equity • We expect NRB bearings topline to grow 15.2% YoY to | 180 crore. EBITDA is likely to grow 21.7% YoY on account of an improvement in margins to 14.5% in Q4FY16E from 13.8% in Q4FY15. The bottomline is expected to increase 12.1% YoY to | 13.1 crore, primarily due to higher depreciation for the quarter • revenues are likely to increase 22.6% YoY to | 456 crore EBITDA margins are likely to remain flat at 18.8% while EBITDA is expected to grow by 24% YoY to |85.5 crore. Consequently PAT is likely to grow by 19.6% YoY to |56.35 crore • Aban offshore board of directors have approved company plans to raise long term resources of around $400 million through FCCBs, GDPs and also, another issue of equity related securities of upto | 2500 crore to QIB.

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Sensex Chart Technical Outlook We said, "gap-up area of 9th May can be support ... failure to hold would continue -ve bias ... " Index opened gap-up on ITC. However, shaving off 311 pts later, it covered the gap and settled 72 pts or 0.2% lower. Without ITC, Index could have lost another 100 pts. Most sectors ended flat to -ve, A/D ratio remained -ve 1:2.

The action formed a bigger Bear candle. The 7% higher opening up-tick on the heavyweight ITC caused a false start. Index shaved of all the initial gains, and finally covered the gap-up area we showed. With lower low, bias continued -ve. However, the Double Bottom area near 25058 remains a crucial support area to watch this week.

Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Index/Stocks CloseS1S2R1R2Trend Nifty 50 Intraday Short Term SENSEX 25230.36 25196.90 25119.00 25352.60 25430.50 Neutral Trend Range bound Range bound NIFTY 7731.05 7719.90 7695.30 7769.10 7793.70 Neutral Trend Reversal 0 0 ACC 1418.00 1415.00 1405.50 1434.00 1441.20 +ve Support 7700-7670 7700 AXIS BANK 486.50 482.55 480.65 487.75 490.35 -ve Resistance 7775-7805 8000 20 Days EMA 0 7780 HDFC BANK 1136.75 1130.00 1126.25 1138.35 1142.55 -ve 200 days EMA 0 7776 SBI 168.40 166.85 165.80 169.10 170.20 -ve HDFC 1160.25 1150.00 1144.60 1164.45 1171.65 -ve Advances / Declines 3913.85 3886.45 3867.00 3920.60 3937.70 -ve Advances Declines Unchanged TATA MOTORS 381.75 377.90 375.60 382.85 385.30 -ve BSE 1058 1531 171 M & M 1284.95 1276.40 1267.95 1286.85 1292.05 -ve NSE 581 975 87 2421.80 2398.95 2390.30 2426.65 2440.50 -ve TCS 2491.45 2465.80 2455.05 2498.65 2515.05 -ve Daily Technical Calls

INFOSYS 1188.00 1180.30 1175.40 1190.35 1195.40 -ve 1. Buy Shriram Transport Finance above 1116.00 CIPLA 497.40 491.45 487.95 499.05 502.85 -ve 2. Buy above 642.00 ONGC 208.15 205.60 204.45 209.10 210.85 -ve 3. Sell Ceat below 930.00 RELIANCE 930.00 927.30 923.55 934.80 938.60 Neutral 4. Sell Bata India below 554.00 345.85 345.60 343.80 349.25 351.05 +ve *All recommendations are of May Future

DLF 121.25 119.65 118.60 121.60 122.60 -ve See Momentum Pick for more details

Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – May 2016 Intraday Derivative Strategy Buy POWGRI May Fut at 146.00-146.40 7300 7 1 View: Bullish 7400 8 0 Strategy: Buy Future 7500 13 0 Target 1: 147 Target 2: 148.9 7600 13 2 Stop Loss: 145.25 7700 17 8 Market Lot: 4000 CMP : 147.6 7800 15 20 7900 10 24 Sell AXIBAN MAY Fut at 491.00-492.00 8000 3 29 View: Bearish 8100 1 19 Strategy: Sell Future Target 1: 488 Target 2: 483 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Stop Loss: 495.1 Put Call Market Lot: 1000 CMP : 487.9 See Daily Derivatives for more details

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Results/Events Calendar 09 May 10 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Century Plyboard, SRF Kotak Bank, Nestle India, Dr. Reddy's Relaxo Footwear Vardhman Textiles Kirloskar Brothers, Zee , Gulf Lubricant Graphite India, MRPL Taj GVK, 0 0 Kaveri Seeds DFM Foods, FSL Ltd, MRPL Bayer Cropscience 0 0 DCM Shriram India Glenmark Pharma 0 0 SKF India 0 Arvind, PTC India Financial 0 0 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 May Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday NBCC, Tata Coffee Motherson Sumi JSW Steel,PNB Wabco India Unichem,Timken,D B Corp Somany Ceramics JK Tyre, Gandhi Special Tubes GSK Consumer Healthcare JK Lakshmi Cement GHCL, GSPL Britannia,ITC,Siyaram Silk Navneet Education Solar industries, Petronet Ltd, Guj Gas Lupin, Pidilite, ENIL Ramco Cement,Cox & Kings 0 Strides Shasun, Styrolution Majesco, Indian Hotel Manpasand, Sobha Eclerx, Ashoka Buildcon 0 Apcotex Industries Emmbi Industries, Symphony PTC India, Tata Comm IRB Infrastructure Sterling Tools, Coffee Day 0 23 May 24 May 25 May 26 May 27 May 28 May Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Torrent Pharma, Aban Bajaj Finserv,Cipla,Greenply , Bajaj Auto,L&T Shree cem,HT,BPCL,ONGC Indoco Remedies, IOCL JK Cement TTK Prestige, Chennai Petro Wonderla,Bajaj Finance,Page ,Control Print CARE,EIH ltd,Mah Seamless , HPCL NHPC, Coal India Tata Power, Dish TV Tech Mah,Colgate,J&K Bank Thermax,,GAIL BHEL, VA Tech,Jet Airways PNC Infratech, HEG, Hindalco, Divi's Labs CUB, Jyothy,Union Bank Jubilant Life,NCC,Heidelberg TV Today, , SH Kelkar,SBI, PVR Limited Vadilal Industries Kewal Kiran NRB Bearings, Amara Raja, Bosch,Tata Steel,CONCOR India Cements, Cable VST Tillers Tractors 0 30 May 31 May 01 June 02 June 03 June 04 June Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Mahindra & Mahindra, India Fiscal Deficit Nikkei India PMI Mfg US Initial Jobless Claims Nikkei India PMI Services 0 Atul Auto, India GDP YoY China PMI Mfg US Continuing Claims Nikkei India PMI Composite 0 Tata Motors,Bata,TCI 0 0 0 0 0 ,Aurobindo Pharma0 0 0 0 0 Simplex Infra,McLeod Russel 0 0 0 0 0

06 June 07 June 08 June 09 June 10 June 11 June Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday US Labor Mkt Condt Index RBI Repurchase Rate China Trade Balance India Local Car Sales India Industrial Prod YoY 0 0 RBI Reverse Repo Rate 0 US Initial Jobless Claims India Trade Balance 0 0 China Foreign Reserves 0 US Continuing Claims 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 0 0 0

Major Economic Events this Week Result Preview – Q4FY16E Date Event Country Period Actual Expected Company Revenue Chg(%) EBITDA Chg(%) PAT Chg(%) 23-May Markit US Manufacturing PMUS May P 50.5 51.0 Q4FY16E YoY QoQ Q4FY16E YoY QoQ Q4FY16E YoY QoQ 23-May Markit Eurozone Manufacturi EC May P 51.5 51.9 6,854.0 12.1 2.3 1,145.4 23.3 0.8 745.0 57.8 -1.9 23-May Markit Eurozone Services PMEC May P 53.1 53.2 Bajaj Finserv 6,495.2 14.4 28.1 1,074.4 -10.5 12.6 563.4 -20.3 28.8 23-May Markit Eurozone Composite PEC May P 52.9 53.2 Cipla 3,195.7 3.3 2.9 565.4 11.4 24.6 299.1 15.2 -12.9 NCC 2,035.2 -7.9 -0.9 183.5 -0.8 -1.0 -32.9 PL PL Date Event Country Period Expected Previous Jubilant Life Sc. 1,499.8 -2.4 8.7 341.5 38.0 11.0 134.1 75.1 11.6 24-May Central Government NCR UK Apr -- 18.8b Bajaj Finance 1,094.7 47.7 -10.4 675.7 47.4 -12.4 335.4 45.2 -17.8 25-May Eight Infrastructure IndustriesIN Apr -- 6.4% Colgate Palmolive 1,056.8 3.4 5.0 239.8 -3.1 3.6 158.2 -3.3 -0.8 25-May Markit US Services PMI US May P 53.2 52.8 25-May Markit US Composite PMI US May P -- 52.4 Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC 26-May Initial Jobless Claims US 21-May -- 278k 26-May Continuing Claims US 14-May -- 2152k Recent Releases 26-May GDP YoY UK 1Q P 2.1% 2.1% Date Report 26-May Exports QoQ UK 1Q P 0.1% -0.1% 23 May 2016 Result Update – ITC Limited 26-May Imports QoQ UK 1Q P 1.0% 1.2% 27-May GDP Price Index US 1Q S 0.7% 0.7% 23 May 2016 Result Update – Cox & Kings 23 May 2016 Result Update – eClerx Services 23 May 2016 Result Update –PTC India 23 May 2016 0063 Result Update – Apcotex Industries

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