Decision Trees Funcon Approximaon Problem Seng • Set of possible instances X • Set of possible labels Y • Unknown target funcon f : X ! Y • Set of funcon hypotheses H = h h : { | X ! Y}

Input: Training examples of unknown target funcon f n x(i),y(i) = x(1),y(1) ,..., x(n),y(n) i=1 nD Eo nD E D Eo Output: Hypothesis that best approximates h H f 2

Based on slide by Tom Mitchell Sample Dataset

• Columns denote features Xi n x(i),y(i) = x(1),y(1) ,..., x(n),y(n) • Rows denote labeled instances i=1 • Class label denotes whether a tennis game was played nD Eo nD E D Eo

n x(i),y(i) = x(1),y(1) ,..., x(n),y(n) i=1 nD Eo nD E D Eo Decision • A possible for the data:

• Each internal node: test one aribute Xi

• Each branch from a node: selects one value for Xi • Each leaf node: predict Y (or ) p(Y x leaf) | 2

Based on slide by Tom Mitchell Decision Tree • A possible decision tree for the data:

• What predicon would we make for ?

Based on slide by Tom Mitchell Decision Tree • If features are connuous, internal nodes can test the value of a feature against a threshold

6 DecisionDecision Tree Learning Tree Learning Problem Setting: • Set of possible instances X – each instance x in X is a feature vector – e.g., • Unknown target function f : XY – Y is discrete valued • Set of function hypotheses H={ h | h : XY } – each hypothesis h is a decision tree – trees sorts x to leaf, which assigns y

Slide by Tom Mitchell

Decision Tree Learning

Problem Setting: • Set of possible instances X – each instance x in X is a feature vector x = < x1, x2 … xn> • Unknown target function f : XY – Y is discrete valued • Set of function hypotheses H={ h | h : XY } – each hypothesis h is a decision tree

Input: • Training examples {} of unknown target function f Output: • Hypothesis h ∈ H that best approximates target function f

8 Stages of (Batch) n Given: labeled training data X, Y = x(i),y(i) i=1 nD Eo • Assumes each with x(i) ( ) y(i) = f x(i) ⇠ D X target X, Y Train the model: learner model ß classifier.train(X, Y ) y x model predicon Apply the model to new data: x ( ) ⇠ D X • Given: new unlabeled instance

ypredicon ß model.predict(x) Decision Trees

Suppose X =

where Xi are boolean variables

How would you represent Y = X2 X5 ? Y = X2 ∨ X5

How would you represent X2 X5 ∨ X3X4(¬X1)

Example Applicaon: A Tree to Predict Caesarean Secon Risk

Based on Example by Tom Mitchell

9 Decision Tree Induced Paron

Color blue green red Size + Shape big small square round - + Size + big small - + Decision Tree – Decision Boundary • Decision trees divide the feature space into axis- parallel (hyper-)rectangles • Each rectangular region is labeled with one label – or a probability distribuon over labels

Decision boundary

11 Expressiveness • Decision trees can represent any boolean funcon of the input aributes

Truth table row à path to leaf

• In the worst case, the tree will require exponenally many nodes Expressiveness Decision trees have a variable-sized hypothesis space • As the #nodes (or depth) increases, the hypothesis space grows – Depth 1 (“decision stump”): can represent any boolean funcon of one feature – Depth 2: any boolean fn of two features; some involving three features (e.g., ) (x x ) ( x x ) 1 ^ 2 _ ¬ 1 ^ ¬ 3 – etc.

Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Another Example: Restaurant Domain (Russell & Norvig) Model a patron’s decision of whether to wait for a table at a restaurant

~7,000 possible cases A Decision Tree from Introspecon

Is this the best decision tree? Preference bias: Ockham’s Razor • Principle stated by William of Ockham (1285-1347) – “non sunt mulplicanda ena praeter necessitatem” – enes are not to be mulplied beyond necessity – AKA Occam’s Razor, Law of Economy, or Law of Parsimony

Idea: The simplest consistent explanaon is the best

• Therefore, the smallest decision tree that correctly classifies all of the training examples is best • Finding the provably smallest decision tree is NP-hard • ...So instead of construcng the absolute smallest tree consistent with the training examples, construct one that is prey small Basic for Top-Down Inducon of Decision Trees [ID3, C4.5 by Quinlan] node = root of decision tree Main loop: 1. A ß the “best” decision aribute for the next node. 2. Assign A as decision aribute for node. 3. For each value of A, create a new descendant of node. 4. Sort training examples to leaf nodes. 5. If training examples are perfectly classified, stop. Else, recurse over new leaf nodes.

How do we choose which aribute is best? Choosing the Best Aribute

Key problem: choosing which aribute to split a given set of examples

• Some possibilies are: – Random: Select any aribute at random – Least-Values: Choose the aribute with the smallest number of possible values – Most-Values: Choose the aribute with the largest number of possible values – Max-Gain: Choose the aribute that has the largest expected informaon gain • i.e., aribute that results in smallest expected size of subtrees rooted at its children • The ID3 algorithm uses the Max-Gain method of selecng the best aribute Choosing an Aribute

Idea: a good aribute splits the examples into subsets that are (ideally) “all posive” or “all negave”

Which split is more informave: Patrons? or Type?

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin ID3-induced Decision Tree

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Compare the Two Decision Trees

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Informaon Gain

Which test is more informave?

Split over whether Split over whether Balance exceeds 50K applicant is employed

Less or equal 50K Over 50K Unemployed Employed

22 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Informaon Gain Impurity/Entropy (informal) – Measures the level of impurity in a group of examples

23 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Impurity

Very impure group Less impure Minimum impurity

24 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos [ID3, C4.5, Quinlan] node = Root

Entropy: a common way to measure impurity Entropy # of possible Entropy H(X) of a X values for X

H(X) is the expected number of bits needed to encode a randomly drawn value of X (under most efficient code)

Why? :

• Most efficient code assigns -log2P(X=i) bits to encode the message X=i • So, expected number of bits to code one random X is:

Slide by Tom Mitchell

10 [ID3, C4.5, Quinlan] node = Root

Entropy: a common way to measure impurity Entropy # of possible Entropy H(X) of a random variable X values for X

H(X) is the expected number of bits needed to encode a randomly drawn value of X (under most efficient code)

Why? Information theory:

• Most efficient code assigns -log2P(X=i) bits to encode the message X=i • So, expected number of bits to code one random X is:

Slide by Tom Mitchell

10 Example: Huffman code

• In 1952 MIT student David Huffman devised, in the course of doing a homework assignment, an elegant coding scheme which is opmal in the case where all symbols’ probabilies are integral powers of 1/2. • A Huffman code can be built in the following manner: – Rank all symbols in order of probability of occurrence – Successively combine the two symbols of the lowest probability to form a new composite symbol; eventually we will build a binary tree where each node is the probability of all nodes beneath it – Trace a path to each leaf, nocing direcon at each node

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Huffman code example M code length prob M P A 000 3 0.125 0.375 B 001 3 0.125 0.375 1 A .125 C 01 2 0.250 0.500 B .125 0 1 D 1 1 0.500 0.500 C .25 .5 .5 average message length 1.750 D .5 0 1 D If we use this code to many .25 .25 messages (A,B,C or D) with this 0 1 C probability distribuon, then, over

.125 .125 me, the average bits/message A B should approach 1.75

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin 2-Class Cases: n Entropy H(x)= P (x = i) log P (x = i) 2 i=1 X • What is the entropy of a group in which all Minimum examples belong to the same class? impurity

– entropy = - 1 log21 = 0

not a good training set for learning

• What is the entropy of a group with 50% Maximum in either class? impurity

– entropy = -0.5 log20.5 – 0.5 log20.5 =1

good training set for learning 30 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Sample Entropy Sample Entropy

Slide by Tom Mitchell

Entropy Entropy H(X) of a random variable X

Specific conditional entropy H(X|Y=v) of X given Y=v :

Conditional entropy H(X|Y) of X given Y :

Mututal information (aka Information Gain) of X and Y :

11 Informaon Gain • We want to determine which aribute in a given set of training feature vectors is most useful for discriminang between the classes to be learned.

• Informaon gain tells us how important a given aribute of the feature vectors is.

• We will use it to decide the ordering of aributes in the nodes of a decision tree.

32 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Sample Entropy

EntropyFrom Entropy to Informaon Gain Entropy H(X) of a random variable X

Specific conditional entropy H(X|Y=v) of X given Y=v :

Conditional entropy H(X|Y) of X given Y :

Mututal information (aka Information Gain) of X and Y :

Slide by Tom Mitchell

11 Sample Entropy

EntropyFrom Entropy to Informaon Gain Entropy H(X) of a random variable X

Specific conditional entropy H(X|Y=v) of X given Y=v :

Conditional entropy H(X|Y) of X given Y :

Mututal information (aka Information Gain) of X and Y :

Slide by Tom Mitchell

11 Sample Entropy

EntropyFrom Entropy to Informaon Gain Entropy H(X) of a random variable X

Specific conditional entropy H(X|Y=v) of X given Y=v :

Conditional entropy H(X|Y) of X given Y :

Mututal information (aka Information Gain) of X and Y :

Slide by Tom Mitchell

11 Sample Entropy

EntropyFrom Entropy to Informaon Gain Entropy H(X) of a random variable X

Specific conditional entropy H(X|Y=v) of X given Y=v :

Conditional entropy H(X|Y) of X given Y :

Mututal information (aka Information Gain) of X and Y :

Slide by Tom Mitchell

11 Informaon Gain Information Gain is the mutual information between input attribute A and target variable Y

Information Gain is the expected reduction in entropy of target variable Y for data sample S, due to sorting on variable A

Slide by Tom Mitchell

12 Calculang Informaon Gain Informaon Gain = entropy(parent) – [average entropy(children)]

child ⎛13 13 ⎞ ⎛ 4 4 ⎞ impurity = −⎜ ⋅log2 ⎟ − ⎜ ⋅log2 ⎟ = 0.787 entropy ⎝17 17 ⎠ ⎝17 17 ⎠

Entire population (30 instances) 17 instances

child ⎛ 1 1 ⎞ ⎛12 12 ⎞ impurityentropy = −⎜ ⋅log2 ⎟ − ⎜ ⋅log2 ⎟ = 0.391 ⎝13 13 ⎠ ⎝13 13 ⎠

parent ⎛14 14 ⎞ ⎛16 16 ⎞ impurity = −⎜ ⋅log2 ⎟ −⎜ ⋅log2 ⎟ = 0.996 entropy ⎝ 30 30 ⎠ ⎝ 30 30 ⎠ 13 instances

⎛17 ⎞ ⎛ 13 ⎞ (Weighted) Average Entropy of Children = ⎜ ⋅0.787⎟ + ⎜ ⋅0.391⎟ = 0.615 ⎝ 30 ⎠ ⎝ 30 ⎠

Information Gain= 0.996 - 0.615 = 0.38 38 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Entropy-Based Automac Decision Tree Construcon

Training Set X Node 1 x1=(f11,f12,…f1m) What feature x2=(f21,f22, f2m) should be used? . What values? . xn=(fn1,f22, f2m)

Quinlan suggested informaon gain in his ID3 system and later the gain rao, both based on entropy.

39 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Using Informaon Gain to Construct a Decision Tree Choose the aribute A Full Training Set X Aribute A with highest informaon gain for the full training v1 v2 vk set at the root of the tree. Construct child nodes for each value of A. Set X ʹ Xʹ={x∈X | value(A)=v1} Each has an associated subset of vectors in repeat which A has a parcular recursively value. ll when?

Disadvantage of informaon gain: • It prefers aributes with large number of values that split the data into small, pure subsets • Quinlan’s gain rao uses normalizaon to improve this

40 Based on slide by Pedro Domingos Information Gain is the mutual information between input attribute A and target variable Y

Information Gain is the expected reduction in entropy of target variable Y for data sample S, due to sorting on variable A

12 Slide by Tom Mitchell

13 Slide by Tom Mitchell

13 Slide by Tom Mitchell

13 Restaurant example

Random: Patrons or Wait-me; Least-values: Patrons; Most-values: Type; Max-gain: ???

French Y N

Italian Y N

Thai N Y N Y Type variable

Burger N Y N Y Empty Some Full Patrons variable Compung Informaon Gain French Y N •I(T) = ?

•I (Pat, T) = ? Y N Italian •I (Type, T) = ?

Thai N Y N Y

Burger N Y N Y Empty Some Full

Gain (Pat, T) = ? Gain (Type, T) = ?

50 Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Compung informaon gain

French Y N I(T) = - (.5 log .5 + .5 log .5) Y N = .5 + .5 = 1 Italian I (Pat, T) = 2/12 (0) + 4/12 (0) + Thai N Y N Y 6/12 (- (4/6 log 4/6 + 2/6 log 2/6)) Burger N Y N Y = 1/2 (2/3*.6 + Empty Some Full 1/3*1.6) = .47 I (Type, T) = Gain (Pat, T) = 1 - .47 = .53 2/12 (1) + 2/12 (1) + Gain (Type, T) = 1 – 1 = 0 4/12 (1) + 4/12 (1) = 1

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Spling examples by tesng aributes Decision Tree Applet

hp://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~aixplore/learning/ DecisionTrees/Applet/DecisionTreeApplet.html

Decision Tree Learning Applet

• http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/%7Eaixplore/learning/ DecisionTrees/Applet/DecisionTreeApplet.html

Which Tree Should We Output?

• ID3 performs heuristic search through space of decision trees • It stops at smallest acceptable tree. Why?

Occam’s razor: prefer the simplest hypothesis that fits the data

Slide by Tom Mitchell

14 The ID3 algorithm builds a decision tree, given a set of non-categorical attributes C1, C2, .., Cn, the class attribute C, and a training set T of records

function ID3(R:input attributes, C:class attribute, S:training set) returns decision tree; If S is empty, return single node with value Failure; If every example in S has same value for C, return single node with that value; If R is empty, then return a single node with most frequent of the values of C found in examples S; # causes errors -- improperly classified record Let D be attribute with largest Gain(D,S) among R; Let {dj| j=1,2, .., m} be values of attribute D; Let {Sj| j=1,2, .., m} be subsets of S consisting of records with value dj for attribute D; Return tree with root labeled D and arcs labeled d1..dm going to the trees ID3(R-{D},C,S1). . . ID3(R-{D},C,Sm);

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin How well does it work?

Many case studies have shown that decision trees are at least as accurate as human experts. – A study for diagnosing breast cancer had humans correctly classifying the examples 65% of the me; the decision tree classified 72% correct – Brish Petroleum designed a decision tree for gas-oil separaon for offshore oil plaorms that replaced an earlier rule-based expert system – Cessna designed an airplane flight controller using 90,000 examples and 20 aributes per example

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Extensions of ID3 • Using gain raos • Real-valued data • Noisy data and overfing • Generaon of rules • Seng parameters • Cross-validaon for experimental validaon of performance • C4.5 is an extension of ID3 that accounts for unavailable values, connuous aribute value ranges, pruning of decision trees, rule derivaon, and so on

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Using gain raos • The informaon gain criterion favors aributes that have a large number of values – If we have an aribute A that has a disnct value for each record, then Info(X,A) is 0, thus Gain(X,A) is maximal • To compensate for this Quinlan suggests using the following rao instead of Gain: GainRao(X,A) = Gain(X,A) / SplitInfo(X,A) • SplitInfo(X,A) is the informaon due to the split of X on the basis of value of categorical aribute A SplitInfo(X,A) = I(|X1|/|X|, |X2|/|X|, .., |Xm|/|X|) where {X1, X2, .. Xm} is the paron of X induced by value of A

Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin Computing gain ratio French Y N • I(X) = 1 Y N • I (Pat, X) = .47 Italian • I (Type, X) = 1 Thai N Y N Y

Gain (Pat, X) =.53 Gain (Type, X) = 0 Burger N Y N Y Empty Some Full SplitInfo (Pat, X) = - (1/6 log 1/6 + 1/3 log 1/3 + 1/2 log 1/2) = 1/6*2.6 + 1/3*1.6 + 1/2*1 = 1.47 SplitInfo (Type, X) = 1/6 log 1/6 + 1/6 log 1/6 + 1/3 log 1/3 + 1/3 log 1/3 = 1/6*2.6 + 1/6*2.6 + 1/3*1.6 + 1/3*1.6 = 1.93 GainRatio (Pat, X) = Gain (Pat, X) / SplitInfo(Pat, X) = .53 / 1.47 = .36 GainRatio (Type, X) = Gain (Type, X) / SplitInfo (Type, X) = 0 / 1.93 = 0 Based on Slide from M. desJardins & T. Finin