Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview January 12, 2018

Weekly Libya .Xplored preview January 12, 2018

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya garda.com/ips

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Weekly Libya .Xplored Preview

January 12, 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIBYA ACTIVITY MAP ...... 3 TRIPOLI ACTIVITY MAP ...... 4 OUTLOOK ...... 5 Short term outlook ...... 5 Medium to long term outlook ...... 5 SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ...... 5 Governance ...... 5 Security ...... 6 Migrant Crisis ...... 7 Oil & Gas ...... 7 KEY DATES ...... 7 THREAT MATRIX ...... 8 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ...... 8 Governance ...... 8 Security ...... 8 Migrant Crisis ...... 8 WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT ...... 9 Tripolitania ...... 9 Cyrenaica ...... 10 Fezzan ...... 10 ACRONYM LIST ...... 11 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES ...... 12 GARDAWORLD ...... 12

This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nigel Lea, Regional Director, Libya.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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LIBYA ACTIVITY MAP

Armed HG/Mine/ CP Civil Threat Military IED SAF Suicide VBIED IDF SA Fire Kidnap Crime Accident Health Airstrike Clash RPG Incident Unrest Warning Op

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TRIPOLI ACTIVITY MAP

Armed HG/Mine/ CP Civil Threat Military IED SAF Suicide VBIED IDF SA Fire Kidnap Crime Accident Health Airstrike Clash RPG Incident Unrest Warning Op

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OUTLOOK

Short term outlook . IS has mounted two attempted VBIED attacks in Tripolitania, including one in Tripoli. Both attempts failed however they may indicate a change in strategy by the terrorist group. Both devices were to be remoted detonated and targeted against security forces. . The north-west coastline remains unstable after another security operation was launched by GNA Western Command, led by Major General Osama Jweli. A ceasefire has been agreed, and Jweli will now have overall control militarily for the Ra’s Ajdir border crossing and the Zuwara area. . Tensions are building in Zawiyah, and there is a heightened risk of clashes among militia groupings as pressure from Jweli mounts in the city. Medium to long term outlook . As political talks fail to find any meaningful agreements, the concept of fresh elections has begun to gain traction amongst the political establishment. Deep divisions remain amongst the various factions, and an election blueprint has yet to be agreed. A number of those supporting the idea do not necessarily support the notion of a democratic establishment but are looking to exploit elections in a bid to gain power. The general population also remain skeptical of the political process and remain unclear what they would be voting for, highlighting the lack of structure and agreements currently around the process. The elections will trigger further posturing and maneuvering from various factions. . IS continues to become bolder, mounting hit and run attacks against security forces and critical national infrastructure. They are also conducting criminal activity to raise funds and to help supply the group. The terrorist organization is believed to be trying to rebuild its capability in Libya and manpower is reported to be heading to the south of the country. IS will continue to benefit from the lack of political and security unity in Libya and may look to establish a fresh alliance with other extremist groups like al-Qaeda.

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

Governance . Jeffrey Feltman, the UN under-secretary of state for political affairs, visited Libya this week and met with a number of leaders including GNA President Fayez Sarraj. He was also expected to visit Tunisia before leaving the area on January 12. . The Primary Court of Southern Benghazi has ruled that an appeal against the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) is not within its jurisdiction. The court stated that the CDA was elected by the people directly and as a result, it placed the CDA outside of the jurisdiction of the judiciary. . Preparation for Municipal Council elections should have begun three months ago according to Otman Gajiji, the former Chairman of the Municipal Councils Central Elections Commission. Many councils are seeing their term come to an end after a four-year mandate. . Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has stated that Libya may not yet be ready for democracy and that Saif Gadhafi is politically naive. He also made an unannounced visit to the UAE. Haftar last visited the UAE in November. The visit is his first international trip of 2018. . GNA ministers visited Tawergha this week as part of the reconciliation efforts aimed at allowing those displaced from the town to return from February 01. . The British Ambassador, Peter Millet, has traveled to Tobruk to meet with Aqilah Saleh. Saleh has started to increase his political activities as elections potentially approach. . The Hungarian embassy will resume issuing visas in Tripoli in February. They will also appoint an honorary consul for Hungary in Misrata. . The Amazigh Supreme Council has announced that the second day of the Amazigh year (January 14) will be a public holiday as the first day falls on a weekend. The council said that its decision is based on the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and the council's decision number 3 of 2013 concerning the designation of the first day of the Amazigh year as a public holiday.

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Security . Germany has stated it has completed the destruction of components from Gadhafi’s chemical weapons program. The chemicals have been destroyed by Germany and the US after international assistance was requested. . IS has mounted two failed VBIED attacks this week in Tripolitania. The first manifested in the capital while the second took place near Abu Grain in Misrata province. The group was also reported to have mounted a temporary checkpoint along the coastal road between Sirte and Abu Grain the day before the Abu Grain VBIED. . GNA Western Command forces launched a security operation in the Zuwara area under the command of Zintan’s Major General Osama Jweli. A ceasefire was agreed the following day as fears mounted of possible conflagration along ethnic lines. Jweli has now been named as commander of military forces in the area and is now consolidating his position. . Tensions have increased in Zawiyah as militia groups prepare for a possible intervention by Jweli. The city remains unstable with militia groups reacting to external and internal pressure. Clashes took place this week between two factions, and the release of a list of 290 names of those connected to fuel smuggling in Zawiyah to security forces will add to the pressure in the city. . 7 Brigade/ al-Kani launched an attack against locations in Garabuli after one of their members was detained by an ‘illegal’ armed group in the city. 7 Brigade burned down the home of the group’s leader and took a checkpoint in the town. They withdrew the following day following negotiations. . Mahdi al-Barghathi, the suspended GNA Minister of Defense, visited Zliten military college on January 04 and met with HCS President Abdurrahman Swehli to discuss the unification of the Libyan army. His home in Janzour, Tripoli, was subsequently attack on January 12 with SAF and an RPG. . A leader of the Awagir tribe was targeted in a VBIED attack at his home in Suluq, south of Benghazi. There were no injuries reported. Later in the week, some members of the tribe were reported to have held a demonstration in Barsis to demand the release of Faraj Gaem, however, a tribal elder stated that the protest was over the high price of animal feed. . A number of commanders have reportedly refused to follow orders from Haftar to move to Derna. Leaders include Mahmoud al-Warfali, Ali al-Fassi, and Jebrail al-Farsi. The commander of Special Forces indicated last week that his forces would be relocating to Derna following their victory in Benghazi. . The Amazigh Supreme Council has issued a statement claiming that Haftar and the LNA pose a “serious threat” to the Amazigh people. The council state this is because they reject a “return to the military reign and terrorist ideology.” . A former member of the GNC has accused Majdi Hafalah (aka Abu Mis’ab), an Imam, of giving an inflammatory speech in Kufra, two days before the body of Mahdi Senussi was exhumed and his shrine desecrated. The Sibal al-Salam Battalion (LNA) has denied responsibility and stated it did not receive any orders from LNA General Command to carry out the desecration. Hafalah is accused of urging people not to watch European football, to close mixed schools, barber shops, and tobacco shops. As a result, tensions have been reported in Kufra. . Security forces in Jalu have held an extraordinary meeting to “develop appropriate solutions” to reduce security violations. The meeting focused on violations they claim are being carried out by foreign workers in the area including armed robbery and murder. As a result, the city has begun documenting foreign workers residing in the city, and they have formed a support force from the Army Reserve Force to support the security forces. . The leader of Algerian extremist group, the Movement of Sons of the Sahara for Islamic Justice (MSIJ), was killed in an attack on his convoy in Sabha. It is currently unclear who launched the attack. . Greek authorities have intercepted 29 containers of explosives en-route from Turkey to Misrata. The crew has been arrested. . The US has unveiled a new interactive world map and four-point system designed to warn US travelers about the risk in each country. Libya is ranked as a level four – do not travel – along with nine other war zones and failed states including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

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Migrant Crisis . The IOM has estimated that there may be anything up to one million migrants currently in Libya, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa. Nigerians make up the largest national group. . The Nigerian government repatriated 481 Nigerian nationals from Libya on January 07 to a reception center in Port Harcourt. A further 4511 Nigerians were expected to be repatriated in the days that followed as Abuja begins a mass evacuation program. The Nigerian government also protested against the treatment of its citizens in detention camps in Libya at the weekend while a government official warned that IS may try to exploit the evacuation program to enter Nigeria. . Two shipwrecks have claimed the lives up over 160 people. Both boats were launched from along the Garrabuli/ al-Khoms coast. . An unconfirmed report suggests that families in Hargeysa City, northern Somalia, have spent $1.2 million on ‘ransoms’ to free their children in Libya. Reports have indicated that various human trafficking gangs have demanded further payment from migrants after they have been returned by the coastguard. Many migrants had to turn to their families at home in an attempt to raise the money. . Some migrants have reported that they were sent out on day labor from a migrant detention center in Gharyan. One man alleges that twenty were ‘sold’ for $735 before being put into a van and taken to a farm. . The repatriation of 330 Moroccan migrants has been delayed as the Moroccan authorities carry out background checks over fears of terrorism. . The Bangladeshi Consul and his assistant are registering their nationals detained in Libya as illegal immigrants. Bangladeshi nationals are being issued temporary travel documents and will be voluntarily repatriated via Matiga Airport. . The Illegal Immigration Agency announced that Nigerien nationals would be repatriated between January 09-12. . Nearly 280 migrants were rescued from two boats off the coast of Zawiyah. Despite the pressure and disruption to militia groups in the city, human trafficking continues. . Security forces detained 81 illegal immigrants in Ajdabiya at a safe house for a human trafficking gang. The migrants, all from Eritrea, were taken to a detention center on Benghazi. Oil & Gas . Libya nearly tripled its oil revenues in 2017 to US $14 billion, up from US $4.8 billion 2016. Oil revenue represented more than 86% of its total income during 2017. . The NOC has won an arbitration court case in Paris which has taken three years to conclude. The Libyan Emirati Refining Company (LERCO) had sought $812 million in compensation however the ruling in the NOCs favor has resulted in the NOC been awarded $116 million plus interest. The NOC has now called on LERCO to reopen the Ras Lanuf refinery as soon as possible. The Ras Lanuf Oil and Gas Processing Company (RASCO) welcomed the rulings and stated it hoped to start work in the second half of 2018.

KEY DATES

Date Occasion Comment

January 13 Amazigh New Year Public Holiday January 14 First working day of Amazigh New Year for Amazigh February 17 Libyan Revolution Day Public Holiday March 19-21 International Conference and Exhibition for rebuilding Benghazi city May 01 May Day Public Holiday June 26 – 28 Eid al-Fitr Public Holiday September 01 Day of Arafah Public Holiday September 02 – 04 Eid al-Adha Public Holiday

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THREAT MATRIX

Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime K&R

Tripolitania High-Extreme High-Extreme High-Extreme High High

Cyrenaica Moderate High-Extreme Moderate High High

Fezzan High High-Extreme High High High

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

Governance

Haftar stated this week that he will support elections but warned that the country “may not yet be ready for democracy.” He went on to state that the “upcoming elections in the country must bring a solution to the current bloodshed, but if the situation and the chaos continue after the elections, then we will say enough is enough and take action.” Haftar also claimed to have sleeper cells in the “10%” of the country he does not control which could be “easily activated.”

His comments will continue to exert pressure on the political process which has faltered somewhat. A visit this week by the UN under-secretary of state for political affairs, Jeffery Feltman, was designed to give UN Envoy Ghassan Salamé’s roadmap a boost. Security

IS has grabbed media attention this week with two attempted VBIED attacks in Tripolitania. The first incident saw a device planted in ad-Draiby, Tripoli, on January 06. The device which had at least one shell, failed to function, due to a faulty battery on the mobile phone initiator. Two men were subsequently arrested by RDF and confessed to being IS members. The men stated in their confession that having fled Benghazi, they had gone south where they had been given orders to carry out an attack in the capital against a security force target.

The second device was driven to a checkpoint near Abu Grain in Misrata province on January 11 by a teenager. Like the Tripoli device, the Abu Grain device was also mobile phone initiated, although had far more explosive power with at least 13 shells packed into expanding foam throughout the vehicle. The day before the attempted attack, IS had mounted at least one temporary checkpoint along the coastal road between Sirte and Abu Grain.

The GNA has continued its expansion in the north-west this week with Major General Osama Jweli, their western commander taking control of the Zuwara area after launching another “security operation.” The operation remains controversial and triggered fears of possible conflagration along ethnic lines however a ceasefire managed to bring the situation back under control. Migrant Crisis

Good weather has seen a number of boat launches from the western coast this week and the first shipwrecks of the year, claiming the lives of over 160 people. Both shipwrecks occurred following launches along the Garabuli and al-Khoms coast. Failing engines and sinking dinghies were named as causes as rescue missions continued to look for scores of missing people.

Nigeria is now in the middle of a mass evacuation of its nationals with around 5000 people being airlifted to Lagos and Port Harcourt. Bangladesh is also taking concrete steps to repatriate those caught in the centers. Their consul has initiated a program to document Bangladeshi nationals, and the issuing of temporary travel papers has begun to get people home. The repatriation of Moroccans continues to be somewhat slowed by the

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January 12, 2018 government’s insistence on background checks of those returning due to fears extremists maybe amongst them. A Nigerian official has also raised similar concerns, warning the Nigerian Federal Government of the potential for IS elements to infiltrate the country by exploiting the evacuation program.

WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT

Tripolitania

Significant activity . Armed Clashes - Jan 05, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Abu Kammash: Clashes erupted between GNA Western Command forces and local Amazigh militias and Presidential Guard (PG) elements. At least one person, an Algerian national was killed, and three wounded. Fighting was reported near the border crossing, Abu Kammash, and Zelten. The PG forced GNA Western Command from Abu Kammash. The border crossing was closed, and reports indicated 300 trucks and their drivers might of been used as human shields. The police station and police cars in Abu Kammash were damaged during the fighting and local residents were trapped. . VBIED - Jan 06 05:00, Tripoli Province, Tripoli: A VBIED was found and defused in Ad Draiby near a supermarket by 301 Battalion. Unconfirmed reporting suggests two men were seen parking the vehicle and walking to a nearby café. . Armed Clashes - Jan 06 21:00, Az Zawiyah Province, Zawiyah: Armed clashes took place between the Faraz al-Wahsi faction of Al-Hneish and al-Bowarawi militia in Zawiyah near the coastal road. . Armed Clashes - Jan 06, Nuqat Al-Khams Province, Zuwara: Further clashes took place between GNA Western Command and Zuwara units before a ceasefire was agreed. . Kidnap - Jan 06, Tripoli Province, Castelverde: A member of al-Kani/ 7 Brigade was 'kidnapped' by a gunman named 'Saddam' from Garabuli/ Castelverde. . Armed Attack - Jan 07, Tripoli Province, Castelverde: 7 Brigade (al-Kani) launched an attacked against a Military Police checkpoint in Castleverde/Garabuli. 7 Brigade deployed medium and heavy weaponry, including tanks, and held the position for a number of hours before withdrawing. . Shooting - Jan 08, Az Zawiyah Province, Zawiyah: Mohamed Alhenish, the half-brother of Ibrahim Alhenish, has been shot three times and is in intensive care. . Arrest - Jan 08, Tripoli Province, Draiby: RDF arrested two men belonging to IS. The men were identified as Mohammed Abdulla Balah and Siraj Khalifa Ali Abdul Rahman Al-Jihawi nicknamed Abu Huraira and Abu Ayyub respectively. The men have confessed to attempting VBIED attacks in Tripoli. . Armed Attack - Jan 09 01:30, Az Zawiyah Province, Zawiyah Power Plant: Four armed men stole a vehicle from Zawiyah power plant after storming a control room. . Arrest - Jan 09, Sirte Province, Sirte: A Sudanese IS member was arrested by security forces in Sirte after been recognized by a local. The local had previously been detained by the man when IS controlled the city. . Armed Clashes - Jan 09, Misrata Province, Bani Waled: An arrest operation escalated into armed clashes when the Rapid Support and Intervention Force (RSIF) of the MoI tried to arrest members of the al-Hamirat family. The family has reportedly been displaced from the south. One person was killed and four were injured. . CP/ Road Block - Jan 10, Sirte Province, Naklah: IS established a temporary checkpoint using two vehicles bearing the groups logo, along the coastal road between Sirte and Abu Grain. The men inspected vehicles and stole food from passing trucks. . Kidnap - Jan 10, Tripoli Province, Tripoli University: The President of the Students Union of Zaytouna University was kidnapped by gunmen outside of Tripoli University. . Murder/ Execution - Jan 10, Sirte Province, Sirte: Three civilians from Niger, Chad and Sudan were shot and killed along Mahdia Street. . VBIED - Jan 11, Misrata Province, Abu Grain: BAM stated that a man surrendered to security forces stating he was an IS hostage who had been forced into driving a VBIED to a checkpoint. The VBIED was set to be remotely triggered via mobile phone. The man had helped to defuse the device by removing the sim card from the mobile phone.

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Cyrenaica

Significant activity . VBIED - Jan 06 10:00, Benghazi Province, Suluq: At around 0500hrs on January 06, a VBIED detonated in Suluq. The attack is assessed to have been an assassination attempt against Musa Namir Aqwri, a leader of the Awaqir tribe and a former post office manager. No casualties were reported although the VBIED reportedly had a number of sheep inside which were killed in the blast. . IDF - Jan 06, Derna Province, Sayda Khadeja: The LNA launched an IDF attack against Sayda Khadeja in the west of Derna. No damage was reported. . IDF - Jan 07, Derna Province, Derna: The LNA mounted IDF attacks against opposition forces in Dahr al- Hammer, southern Derna. . Mine Strike - Jan 07, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: Two LNA soldiers were killed in two separate landmine explosions in central Benghazi. Faraj Musa Mohammed, a 22 year-old, was killed in the 'insurance building' while Saleh Hassan al-Magbari, a 25 year-old, was killed nearby. . Mine Strike - Jan 07, Benghazi Province, Benghazi: A civilian was killed in a mine strike in Umar Ibn Al Aas Street. . Security Announcement - Jan 07, Al-Marj Province, Marj: An armed force under the command of Abd-al- Razzak al-Naduri, the chief of staff for the LNA, seized the home of his office director, Wanis Bu Ma'lumah. The confiscation was ordered after Maduri found that Bu Ma'lumah, his cousin, had stolen around $37 million from LNA funds. Bu Ma'lumah had headed to Egypt with his family two days prior to his crime coming to light. . Arrest - Jan 10, Al-Wahat Province, Ajdabiya: 242 Battalion arrested 81 Eritrean illegal migrants on the outskirts of Ajdabiya in a safe house for a human trafficking gang. They were taken to Ganfouda detention center in Benghazi. . Demonstration - Jan 10, Benghazi Province, Barsis: Members of the Awagir tribe were reported to have held a protest at the continued detention of Faraj Gaem, closing the road east out of Benghazi through Barsis. A member of the Council of Elders of Awagir, Saad Raqraq, claimed the protest was actually over the high price of animal feed and that Gaem was being well treated by the LNA in prison. . Armed Attack - Jan 10, Benghazi Province, Barsis: An armed force, said to belong to the LNA, attacked Kweifah prison and abducted an Awagir tribal leader. Fezzan

Significant activity . Shooting - Jan 05, Al-Jufra Province, Hun: An unconfirmed report suggests 128 Brigade (LNA) opened fire at civilians playing football in an open lot. One young man was wounded and taken to al-Afiya hospital. The town is reported to be tense by anti-Haftar sources. . Kidnap - Jan 05, Wadi Al-Hayaa Province, Obari: A truck driver was kidnapped by unidentified armed men along the Ghat-Obari road. A ransom of 20,000 LYD was demanded for his release. He was released after 72 hours with the help of the Libyan Organisation for Peace and Relief (Southern Branch). . Shooting - Jan 07, Sabha Province, Sabha: Three people were shot dead in a vehicle outside the Nursing College. The victims have yet to be identified. . Crime - Jan 07, Murzuq Province, Qatrun: Kouso Qari Mohammed was shot and injured during a carjacking in Qatrun. . Armed Attack - Jan 10, Sabha Province, Sabha: Abdessalam Tarmoun, the leader of the Movement of Sons of the Sahara for Islamic Justice (MSIJ), was killed in an attack on his convoy in Sabha.

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ACRONYM LIST

AIOR – Anti-IS Operations Room (Sabratah) AQ - Al-Qaeda BAM – Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous (Misrata aligned) BDB – Benghazi Defense Brigade / Saraya Defend Benghazi (SDB) (Al-Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) CNI – Critical National Infrastructure GATMJB - Operations Room for the Liberation of the City Ajdabiya and Support for Benghazi Rebels GECOL – General Electricity Company of Libya GMMR – Great Man-made River GNA – Government of National Accord (UN-backed) GNC – General National Congress HCN - Host Country National HoR – House of Representatives (Tobruk based) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IED - Improvised Explosive Device IOC - International Oil Company IS - Islamic State LIFG – Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA – Libyan National Army LPA – Libyan Political Agreement LROR - Libyan Revolutionary Operations Room MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice MoO - Ministry of Oil MoT - Ministry of Transportation MSCD – Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (AQ aligned) NFDK - No Further Details Known NGO - Non-Governmental Organization (aid/charity) NOC – National Oil Company NSG – National Salvation Government (GNC) NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report PAX - Person, Persons or Passenger PC – Presidency Council (GNA) PG – Presidential Guard PFG- Petroleum Facilities Guard PSC - Private Security Company PSD - Private Security Detail RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade RSCB - Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi RTA - Road Traffic Accident SDB – Saraya Defend Benghazi / Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) (Al-Qaeda-aligned – AAS and RSCB associated/umbrella group) TCN - Third Country National Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck UXO - Unexploded Ordnance

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