Illicit Arms Trafficking and the South Sudanese Conflict Personals

-Was always inherently interested in conflict, the larger implications of it, how it affected the individual, and how conflict itself has transformed over the course of history into its modern context today. -These interests were solidified through a childhood friend, Adake, who was himself a child soldier during the 2006-09 War in Somalia. -Both the fields of history and political science were enough for a little while, but unfortunately when I arrived at St. Olaf I realized settling for either or both of these would not be enough. Consequently, I decided to create an independent program specifically focused on conflict theory and its many facets. Transformation and Growth of the Major

-Began in its simplest form as studying the historical aspects of conflict as well as the effects war and conflict has on the individual, how these effects manifest themselves. -This quickly began to devolve into an unorganized psychology major. -Took it back to basics to examine conflict as a modern theory, broken up into conglomerating subsets coming together for the purpose of showing the complex and constantly evolving nature of human conflict. -As I found the specific case study which I wanted to look at, I found that many of these subsets would not fit into the conventional notions of warfare. -It is because of this that I found the matter of illicit arms trafficking to be worth investigation, as a good/commodity that seems to tie into almost every facet of the South Sudanese conflict, even potentially driving it. The history of SS (Pre-2011)

-South was originally part of the Islamic Republic of Sudan, which was once held as a colony under the . -From 1955 to 1972, the Sudanese government fought the rebel army during the , followed by the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) in the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005), which was led by de Mabior until his death in 2005. -These wars were fought primarily due to persecution from the Muslim majority north towards the Christian majority South. (Human rights abuses, voting rights, no say in governance or infrastructure) -By even the conservative estimates, more than 2.5 million people were killed during this time with millions more becoming refugees both within and outside the country. -Upon Dr. Garang’s death, his deputy successor, was appointed Dr. John Garang de President of , with being sworn in as Vice-President. Mabior, first President of South Sudan, and regarded as most influential person in the history of South Sudan. History of SS (2011-13)

-January of 2011 a referendum was held determining the legal status of South Sudan as a separate state. This ultimately passed with 98.83% of the population in favor of secession. Officially took effect on the 9th of July, 2011, becoming the 54th independent African country to date. -Immediately the GoSS had to contend with at least seven armed groups in 9 of its 10 states. All fighting over various beliefs (Many Inter-ethnic conflicts which predated the wars of independence). As well as those supported by the Sudanese government meant to destabilize the new country. (Most infamous group being the LRA) -South Sudan held 75% of Sudan’s oil reserves. Regions of and are therefore heavily disputed and claimed by both the GoSS and the GoS, leading to the South Kordofan conflict breaking out and still continuing today.

South Sudanese girl at independence festivities History of SS (2013)

-On the 16 of December, 2013, the President of the Republic of South Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit, appeared on state television in military uniform to announce that he had successfully put down a coup attempt in the capital, . Still doubtful whether any actual coup attempt took place. -Government claims said the coup was led by former Vice-President Riek Machar and several ex-cabinet ministers and officials of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), including Rebecca Garang, the widow of John Garang. Machar claimed he was not aware of any coup attempt, but instead blamed Kiir for fabricating such allegations of a coup in order to settle political scores and target political opponents. -Did not take long for fighting to break out in Juba, and then spread throughout the country from there.

Salva Kiir Mayardit Riek Machar The Civil War

-Reported that Salva Kiir's personal unit, whether in the uniform of the Presidential Guard or in uniforms of other units including the police, went through largely Nuer neighbourhoods and carried out both indiscriminate killings and targeted murders of specific individuals. Significant because this unit reports directly to Kiir instead of the military -This killing of civilians in Juba led to revenge killings of Dinka by Nuer in other parts of the country. -Entire conflict has had ethnic undertones due to Kiir being Dinka and Machar being Nuer, (the two largest groups in S-Sudan) this is a major oversimplification, with heavy ethnic crossover being found on either side, just as in any issue. -Fighting broke out between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and SPLM-IO, igniting the civil war. In the beginning, Ugandan troops were deployed to fight alongside the South Sudanese government.

Members of South Sudan’s Presidential Guard. This unit reports directly to the President as opposed to any military hierarchy. The Civil War/Current Conflict

-August 2015, Both Kiir and Machar signed the “Compromise Peace Agreement" mediated by Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The agreement would’ve made Riek Machar the vice-president again. -Less than a year later, violence broke out in Juba after Dinka soldiers began targeting ethnic Nuers, causing Machar to flee and call for an armed uprising against Kiir once again. -After an independent report into UNMISS's (United Nation Mission in South Sudan) failure to protect civilians in the Juba clashes, acting commander Lt. General Johnson Mogoa Kimani Ondieki was fired, leading to a withdrawal of over 1,000 Kenyan peacekeeping personnel. -Infighting within the pastoralist communities continue unchecked, with different tribes fighting each other over matters of resources, land, and traditional cattle raiding practices.

Kids having fun on top of abandoned trailer outside UN compound in Juba. The Civil War/Current Conflict (cont)

-Riek Machar continues to maintain overall command of the operations of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO), although his isolation in South has limited to some degree his day-to-day oversight. -Machar and his followers have repeatedly rejected invitations to attend meetings with IGAD and other regional actors focused on ending the war. They claim they refuse to entertain peace processes until Machar is free to return from South Africa. -2016 and 2017, the SPLA counter-insurgency campaign in Wau and in the surrounding areas in Western Bahr el-Ghazal has targeted civilians on ethnic grounds, internally displacing over 100,000 people. -As of January 2018, the vast majority of the fighting has been taking place in Yei River State. -Most recent development of April 2018, it was announced the launch of a new rebel group named South Sudan United Front (SS-UF), funnily enough no one is sure who they’re fighting quite yet. The open question of arms

-From personal experience, within South Sudan are as common as food is in the United States. They are everywhere, readily available, and ultimately seem to be the driving force behind everything happening within the country. -Illicit trade is an old practice in S-Sudan, particularly in the areas bordering , , Congo, and . The flow of firearms into South Sudan has always been attributed to either Civil Wars (1955-1972), to cattle raiding by pastoral communities, and now more recently, because of the abundance of untapped oil reserves. -Began with formation of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLM/SPLA) who quickly received military assistance from socialist bloc countries who wished to influence their already socialist-leaning sloganeering. -The demand and availability became so great that Civil population soon only accepted and ammunition in lieu of money for food and other necessities -Later, during the 90’s most small and light weapons could be traced back to Sudan as influxes distributed to the population, militias, and terrorist organizations as part of their destabilization programs. The open question of arms (cont)

-There are a plethora of reasons why weapons took hold so well in South Sudan those being either due to the continuous conflicts over the years, lack of governance, and cultural factors. -Governance has always been either very weak or non-existent. Partly due to overemphasis on militarism and militarization. The SPLM/A has not succeeded in building effective governmental systems [military or civil] and therefore indiscipline and insecurity is widespread. -Because of this, senior officers and soldiers very often steal weapons from stores or colleagues along the way for future profits from selling. -This informal policy has triggered the emergence of strong men (some of whom are now in higher echelons of govt.) who have a vested interest in the continuation of a low intensity conflict with no prospects for peace. Road leading to local arms market. Was unable to openly carry camera beyond this point due to natural dangers. The open question of arms (cont)

-In addition, there are also heavy cultural components that play into arms proliferation in SS, particularly among pastoralist communities. -An important tradition that defines status and adulthood, is the high bride price in the form of cattle. For instance, a youth who has reached marriage age and has no cattle must acquire it through raiding from neighboring communities. In which case guns become not only a necessity for carrying out the raiding, but also an expression of manhood and source of pride for upcoming young men. -Because of continuous conflict, this inherent pride in the possession of firearms renders measures of control more complex. -What were traditional practices at the local level are now inextricably linked and driven by global forces and networks for illicit arms transfers at the regional and international levels, creating dimensions that can no longer be curbed at the grassroots level. -The current condition of illicit arms is can now be largely attributed to either pure criminal intent or further foreign intervention as a matter of resource acquisition. The open question of arms (cont)

Oil: -Entire SS oil industry is foreign contracted as the largest overseas conglomerate, the Greater Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC). GNPOC is composed of the following states: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC, People's Republic of China), with a 40% stake; Petronas (Malaysia), with 30%; Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (), with 25%; and Sudapet (Sudan) 5%. Other producing blocks are in eastern Upper Nile state. These blocks are controlled by Petrodar which is 41% owned by CNPC. -An early casualty of the conflict was the oil industry, with roughly half of the country’s daily production halted due to fighting. -The People's Republic of China has offered to extend a line of credit to South Sudan for several years while an alternative pipeline to the Kenyan coast is laid and an export deal is worked out with the Kenyan government for the purpose of avoiding dealing w/ Sudan through Khartoum pipeline -Insecurity within this region has forced the other companies to withdraw their workers. However, due to China also devoting the most peacekeeping troops of any nation, they have also distributed troops (peacekeepers or not is unclear) to these oil fields, allowing for their companies to stay on. The open question of arms (cont)

-China North Industries Corporation (), a Chinese state-owned defence manufacturing company, provided ammunition to South Sudan from 2011 to July 2014. A single transfer in 2014 was worth more than USD 30 million. Transfer included... -27 million rounds of small calibre ammunition -40,000 rounds of 40 mm Type-69 HEAT rockets for RPG -20,000 rounds of 40 mm BGL2 anti-personnel grenades, -1,200 Type HJ-73D anti- missiles -9,500 Type 56 (AK-pattern) assault rifles, -2,394 add-on 40 mm under barrel grenade launchers, -unknown quantities of NP42 9mm , -Unknown quantity of Type 80 machine-gun -It is a standing theory that if a low intensity conflict can be continued long enough, the other state-owned companies will make gradual concessions of shares to CNPC. Which SS would be forced to accept due to 98% of its economy coming from oil revenue amounting to roughly $8 billion since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005. So what?/Implications

-Economic situation continues to worsen, as various conflict actors move deeper into a “war economy”, where the extraction of resources (oil) is carried out in the furtherance of, and in parallel to, military operations and the enrichment of elites. (Tendency of elites using oil revenue for further arms purchases) - and UN observers have documented repeated cases of abuses by both Government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) forces involving small arms and light weapons in Juba, State, Upper Nile, and South Kordofan since the beginning of the current conflict in December 2013. -The continued attacks on civilians and military operations throughout the country clearly show that there is still no serious will for peace other than through the pursuit of total military victory. This is most clearly true of the President, the former First Vice-President and other leading members of the Government.

End results of firefight in Yei River State. Human experience #1

*Based on anonymity* - Somewhere in Yei River State (Refused photograph)

The man interviewed is a cattle herder, who through loss was forced to adapt to new realities.

[paraphrased due to loss of audio tape] “I was raised in the traditional way. We raise our cattle, we bother no one, and we respect the historic ways of war… But they came a few years ago and took everything [cattle raid] and we could not stop guns with our spears... I could no longer marry the perfect girl without my cattle, so I got guns. We found them, took back what was mine, and killed them all.”

This example is a fairly common occurrence. Because cattle are a way of life and directly tied into a man/ family/ community’s self-worth, cattle are equivalent to status and currency. Cattle raiding itself is nothing new, but since the introduction of combat-capable rifles, casualties have skyrocketed and traditions of war have been replaced. Human experience #2

*Based on anonymity* - Imvepi refugee camp, Uganda (Refused photograph) *This woman refused release of name, photograph, and the possibility of recording, but allowed for me to tell her story*

She used to live in a remote bush village somewhere in Gbudwe State. She had a child with a man who halfway through her pregnancy was killed by LRA activity. She had the baby, but due to lack of economic means, conflict induced shortages, and extended droughts she became a victim of the nation-wide famine. Her baby was immediately affected, and became sick as a result of it. With no way to feed or care for the child she walked out into the bush and left the baby to die, and immediately began walking south, not stopping until she reached the Bidi Bidi refugee camp. She has lived there since, just recently having transferred to the Imvepi camp. According to others who are familiar with her, she isolates herself completely from the community, and refuses to interact with any of the youth in these camps. Human experience #3

“Peter” - In transit from Juba, South Sudan to Kampala, Uganda (Refused photograph)

[paraphrased due to loss of audio tape] “I have worked for a long time in Juba, working within the pastoralist communities trying to make them talk again and to change their thoughts on cattle raiding… We were trying to make them understand that these modern weapons are not compatible with these practices of tradition [cattle raiding] and if they wish for all the death to end, then they must be willing to give up their modern weapons, or to move themselves into the modern life. But to do this they must first overcome their differences of tribes.”

Peter worked for an organization which served to stem the violence among pastoralist communities by attempting to create a dialogue between them. However, all funds for this project had been cut, therefore he found himself out of a job and forced to return back to Uganda, according to him, “leaving all that work unfinished and for nothing.” Conflict Mapping Conflict Mapping

Military situation in South Sudan updated as of 1 April 2016 Under control of the Government of South Sudan Under control of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition Under control of the Government of Sudan

*Open Source Map Conflict Mapping

South Sudan Conflict Violent Death Indicator

Conflict Events and Fatalities Graph ** “South Sudan Violent Death Indicator." Chart. Small Arms Survey, pp. 1+. Small Arms Survey Database. Accessed 19 Feb. 2018. Sources

Fick, Maggie (30 January 2011). "Over 99 pct in Southern Sudan vote for secession". USA Today. "South Sudan army kills fighters in clashes". Al Jazeera English. 24 April 2011. Retrieved 15 March 2018. "South Sudan profile". BBC News. 8 January 2014. Retrieved 14 November 2017. Johnson, D. H. (2014, April 6). Briefing: The crisis in South Sudan. African Affairs, 113(451), 300-309. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adu020 "Yoweri Museveni: Uganda troops fighting South Sudan rebels". BBC News. 16 January 2014. Interviews conducted with multiple SPLM/A in Opposition sources, , Kampala and Pretoria, July, August, September and October 2017. "South Sudan ex-army chief Malong forms new rebel movement". East African. 9 April 2018. Retrieved 15 April 2018. Museveni tells South Sudan not to worry from U.S. sanctions. (2018, February 12). Sudan Tribune. Retrieved from http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64703 "The 'Big 4' – How oil revenues are connected to Khartoum" Amnesty International Retrieved 8 December 2010 Sources

Lewis, M. 2009. Skirting the Law: Sudan’s Post-CPA Arms Flows. HSBA Working Paper No. 18. Geneva: Small Arms Survey. September Monitor . "ARMS TRANSFERS TO SOUTH SUDAN." http://armstreatymonitor.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/ATT_ENGLISH_South-Sudan-Case-Study.pdf. Hamilton, Rebecca "Awaiting Independence Vote, Southern Sudan Has High Hopes", Washington Post, 28 November 2010, via Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting Gridneff, I. 2014. China Halts Arms Sales to South Sudan After Norinco Shipment. Bloomberg. 30 September. Human Rights Watch. 2014. South Sudan’s New War: Abuses by Government and Opposition Forces. Washington, D.C.: Human Rights Watch. Varfolomeeva, A. (2018, February 12). 70 children released by South Sudan armed groups remain in interim care center. In The Defense Post. Retrieved from https://thedefensepost.com/2018/02/12/south-sudan-child-soldiers/ Sources

“South Sudan Violent Death Indicator." Chart. Small Arms Survey, pp. 1+. Small Arms Survey Database. Accessed 19 Feb. 2018.