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TheMonthlyNewsletterforManagersandDevelopersof ExpertSystems,fromCutter InformationCorp.
Editor: Paul Harmon
Vol. 2, No. 8 August, 1986
\ AAAI-86 The second article lists all of the expert This issue marks our first anniversary, systems-building tools that we know about and for it we have produced a special to provide you with a good checklist of expanded issue. You will find included the current tool vendors. an inventory of all of the fielded expert systems applications in commercial use Finally, we preview two new tools and one that we have been able to document, which new hardware product that should attract a should help answer two questions: (1) What lot of attention at this year's convention. expert systems are actually being used? There may be other tools that will be and (2) What sorts of tasks are expert equally exciting, but we expect these systems being used to accomplish? products will be among the most talked about. Paperback Software's VP-Expert and Gold Hill Computer's Acorn will make major IN THIS ISSUE: contributions to the continuing evolution of the expert systems market by offering APPLICATIONS developers more power for less money. Gold Hill's 386 Hummingßoard will also INVENTORY AND ANALYSIS OF EXISTING contribute to the market's evolution by EXPERT SYSTEMS — An overview of expert accelerating the trend toward the develop- systems that are now available or in use. ment and delivery of commercial expert pg 1 systems on PC-based hardware. Detailed reviews of each tool will appear in future issues. TOOLS — EXPERT SYSTEMS-BUILDING TOOLS We anticipate an exciting convention in A current list of available expert Philadelphia and hope this special issue systems-building tools. will add to your enjoyment by providing pg 17 you with a concise summary of the current expert systems applications and tools. — NEW PRODUCTS VP-EXPERT An exciting new tool from APPLICATIONS Paperback Software that redefines the low end of the tool market. INVENTORY AND ANALYSIS OF pg — 25 EXISTING EXPERT SYSTEMS ACORN Gold Hill Computers introduces the first jreally powerful large hybrid The February 1986 issue of Expert Systems / tool that runs on a PC. Strategies included a list of all the pg 26 expert systems that we believed were being — applied in business or industrial settings. THE 386 HUMMINGBOARD Gold Hill That list consisted of 49 systems. Since Computers offers a board to convert a then, we have continued to accumulate new PC XT or AT into a 386 machine with information and our list has now grown to 24Mbytes of memory. 138 fielded commercial systems. Other pg 27 people have developed much larger lists by including systems that have been developed CALENDAR \V. pg 28 but not fielded (i.e., a research system), or by including commercial systems that * \ 2 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES August 1986 are still in some stage of development or As you look at Tables 1-A through 1-L, you testing. A larger list can also be will notice that we list each system by compiled if one includes military name. In the few cases where developers systems. We decided to omit those since did not name their systems, we have provid- it is very difficult to get accurate ed a name and have used quotation marks to information about them. indicate that it is our creation. In the second column we indicate if the system is The actual number of fielded expert being used inside a company (internal use) systems is probably between two and three or being offered for sale to the public. a times our total. Many vendors and user In the third column we provide a brief companies have indicated that they have description of the task the system performs. other systems that they do not want us to Next, we list the company that owns the include, to keep their competitors from system, and, if the system was developed by learning about them. Casey Branscomb, of a third party, we list the developer's name Branscomb Associates, conducted a survey in parentheses. Whenever possible, we of the Fortune 500 companies earlier this identify our contact at the company owning year. In her survey she promised respond- the system and that person's phone number. ents anonymity, and she came up with a Finally, we list the tool or language that list of about 140 systems, only 20% of was used to develop the system. (In Table which were fielded. Our list contains a 3 we indicate how many systems were large number of small and mid-sized developedwith each particular tool.) When systems, but it probably ignores just as we compiled our list in February, about 25% many. Small systems are being developed had been developed in a language while 75% with PC-based tools by managers who simply were developed by means of expert systems- don't bother to report their development building tools. Our current list suggests or use to anyone, and it's hard for us to that expert systems-building tools are now learn about such systems. responsible for about 85% of the fielded systems, a proportion that we expect to An example of this is provided by Ed Mahler increase in the future. of Dv Pont. Dv Pont's AI group is encouraging end-users to develop small In Table 2, the systems listed on Table 1 systems to solve problems that would are divided into groups according to the otherwise have been solved by documenta- size of the application and the general tion, memos, and job aids. When a user domain in which the system is used. A comes to Mahler's group for help, they quick glance at this table should convince work with him or her to define the nature you that small to mid-sized applications of the task and then, depending on the in the areas of manufacturing, equipment problem, provide the user with Ist Class, maintenance, and computers continue to Insight 2+, or an internally developed provide most of the successes. Obviously, small tool that does forward chaining. small to mid-sized systems are quicker to Using this small-systems approach, Dv Pont develop and easier to field, and this has already fielded about 20 systems and explains their dominance at this time. is adding 4 to 5 new systems each month. We expect this overall pattern to continue We have only listed one of Dv Pont's for some time, however. The number of systems. Mahler promises that he'll work small systems will continue to grow rapid! V up a list someday soon, but meantime he is Mid-sized systems will probably increase too busy fielding systems that save Dv significantly in the coming year, and the Pont money to take the time to write news number of large fielded systems will releases. We expect that Mahler's increase slowly but steadily in the next situation will become more common in the two years. coming months and that, when we attempt lists like this in future issues of the This list should help answer questions newsletter, we will be forced to simply about the viability of expert systems list companies and their numbers of technology. Systems are being fielded problems systems rather than identifying each and are helping companies solve individual small and mid-sized system. at a rapidly increasing rate. \
> c ua Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer c or Owner Development 01 (Developer) Software rt U.S. Army AALPS Helps plan optimal loading of equipment (Quintus Computer Systems) Quintus Prolog CO on an aircraft (415-494-3612) ACE Troubleshoots cable systems Greg Versonder and recommends maintenance Bell Labs (AT&T)
ACUMEN Assess psychological characteristics in Human Factors Advanced Technology 0 terms of management theory Group
"Aircraft Finish Assists in selection of aircraft finishing McDonnell Aircraft Advisor" specifications Chung-Ta Tsai 314-234-5394 AIRLINE SEAT Sperry (Intellicorp) \XW Allots discount fares to flights "a ADVISOR (Ray Carhart) ■sw mixing of en Ash Mixer" Control radioactive ash with Dupont X concrete for disposal P.D. Soper CO M 2 "Autonomous Vehicle Oakridge National Labs CO Control (Robot)" o Autonomous vehicle control (LMI) co Rod Khanna 617-686-8382 ? BDS Troubleshoots communications LES (Lockheed's tool a problems Lockheed o hardware written in PL/1) M CO BEACON Configures Burroughs Computer hardware Burroughs Co. Quintus Prolog
Brush Designer" Assists in design of brushes for DC General Motors/Delco Div. motors Products S.l Classifies incoming business at Business Classifier" Norknions Corp. Center L. Johnson Creighton Companies Inc. EXSYS
o = " = For sale For internal use © 1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved Table 1-A. Expert Systems in Use Today CO £t Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner Development (Developer) Software Interprets legal Can Am Treaty o and financial differences Raymond Chabot (Montreal) between US and Canadian practice Pierre Lessard 514-878-2691 GURU Capital Asset Assists in developing procedures for IBM Process Advisor moving capital equipment Dick Ten Dyke E.S. Environment /VM 914-696-4435 Troubleshoots problems with CATS (DELTA) o General Electric Developed in Lisp diesel-electric locomotives Implemented in Forth Helps determine suitability of org CBT Advisor instructional unit for Computer Based Courseware Inc. Training delivery Greg Kearsley "Chemical Plant Exxon td Control" Chemical plant control optimization (LMI) PICON (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) § "Chemical Process Simulations of complex chemical Eastman Kodak (LMI) en Simulator" processes PICON enX (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) h3 Evlin Kinney Chest Pain o Helps ER staff diagnose pains First Class en chest 305-672-5084 (GC Lisp) en Front-end that helps highway engineers 3 CHINA create M queries for a Fortran system that Federal Highway Adm. FranzLisp (GENIE) 63 designs highway noise barriers M enW CLASS Determines secrecy status of sensitive Dustin Huntington DOE information CTID/AL 846-3304 (EXSYS) Assists in planning and scheduling Level Five Research COCOMOI Insight 2 software development projects 305-729-9046
COMAX o Advises farmers on irrigation, fertilization and when to harvest USDA-Mississippi
COMPASS Troubleshoots problems with GTE telephone switching equipment. Dr. Sheri K. Goyal 617-466-2940 KEE = " C = 1986, rights CO o For sale For internal use © Harmon Associates. All reserved. n- Table T-B. Expert Systems in Use Today -00 * > c Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner Development c CQ (Developer) Software rt H» COMPONENT IMPACT Argonne National Labs vo Advises nuclear power plant operators oo ANALYSIS SYSTEM on value and switch settings (Quintus Computer Systems) C and Quintus Prolog (415-494-3612) Checks orders and configures CONAD NCR Nixdorf (Germany) Twaice (Nixdorf's Mprolog computers based tool) ampbell Soup "Cooker Advisor" Troubleshoots electrostatic (Texas soup "cookers" Instruments) Personal Consultant (Sue Metzler 512-250-7302) Crew Control NASA Mock-Up Advises on reconfiguring space station or simulation for anticipated problems (Lockheed) ART Expert System (Kent Lennington 713-333-6466 w Guide development of cost estimate for IBM x CSF Advisor moving DPS equipment Dick Ten Dyke E.S. Environment /VM m 914-696-4435 David Imberg en CV Filter Screens resumes of job applicants Helix Expert Systems-London England Helix Expert Edge enX Tel 01-583-9391 ►aw "Corrosion Expert" Assists in design of steam generators Westinghouse Electric Co. ens by recommend alloy to avoid corrosion (Texas Instruments) Personal Consultant en Sue Metzler 512-250-7302 IBM DART Diagnoses computer faults o Michael Geneserth H aen "Data Classifier" Classifies sensitive information Investware Corporation Walter Cooke Data Protection o Classifies sensitive data Helix Act Advisor Laura Baxter
"Diagnoser" Diagnoses problems in manufacturing Ross Laboratories equipment Regina Shanklin 614-229-7070
Diagnostics I o Assists in DSM-111 psychiatric diagnoses Expert Ware Inc = " = o For sale For internal use ©1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved Table 1-C. Expert Systems in Use Today U! Name of System o Specific Domain and Task o\ Developer or Owner Development (Developer) Software DIA 8100 Diagnoses routine failures of data processing equipment Traveler's Insurance (Teknowledge) M.l Dipmeter Advisor Analyzes data from oil well logging instrument Schlumberger STROBE (Schlumberger's large,hybrid tool) Dispatcher Selects, Uansports and delivers parts for assembly while main- DEC taining inventory records Helps train Doppler Diagnosis o doctors to use non-invasive echo effect equipment Dr. Evlin Kinney 305-672-5084 Configures DRAGON orders for ICL's Series ICL (British) 703-893-5915 39 Computers (Systems Designers Software) X (617-935-80091 Drug Interaction Advisor Detects harmful drug Miami VAMC ■-3 interactions Evlin L. Kinney en 305-672-5084 \ken Dyke Maintanance" Advises on repairs and Rykwalerstaat dykes. maintenance of Adviesdienst (Systems Designers Software) en ° v,ses 617-935-8009 en EDDS A clerical personnel regarding" what information in s databases can be ►3 disseminated upon request Environmental Protection Agency aW ESPm Analyzes computer Mw maintenance loas en to identify future faults NCR Vince Santurbane 513-445-4169 Expert Agriculture National Agriculture Information System Helps library users find references Library USDA Samuel T. Waters First 301-344-3780 Class Fan Vibrator Stone & Advisor Troubleshoots industrial fan problems Webster Engineering Gavin Finn EXSYS 617-589-1567 Financial Advisor Assists managers in the analysis of capital Palladian Software investment proposals Lisp = " 617-661-7171 > o For sale = For internal use c 1986, HHam - " C * ® Associates A rights reserved. CO Table■ doie 1-ni-u. ExpertPvn.^ Systemso (T in Use Today M VO 00 > c Development C Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner CO (Developer) Software r* H* 00 Genesis o Assists in recombinant DNA research Intelligenetics
Identifies minerals from hyper- NASA GEOX spectral-image data from satellites Assists in identifying new herbicides Herbicide Advisor" based on structural properties of Shell chemicals British Gas Herbicide Selector" Selects herbicides for use in pipelines (Systems Designers Software) (617-935-8009) solving assembly Assists in circuit board Hughes Aircraft HI Class problems and provides on-line instruction en Helps hotline workers give advice to Texas Instruments enX Helper Personal Consultant h3 Hotline callers with hardware malfunctions Sue Metzler 512-250-7302 iW 8 physicians in interpreting en HP4760A1 Aids Hewlett-Packard/McMinnville Div. Lisp ■-3 Electrocardiograph electrocardiograph readings a Troubleshoots telephone switching Pacific Bell o IDEA Exsys M equipment John Gerard 415-823-1961 enw Troubleshoots Epitaxial Reactor Texas Instruments Personal Consultant IMP Machinery Cindy Griffen 512-250-7984
Information in design of Management Knowledgeware o Assists Engineering Information Systems Kirn Frazier 313-971-5363 Workbench & forecasting Schonfeld Associates Fortran Ingot Assists in financial 312-869-5556 Johnson Controls "Intelligent Building Intelligent building management PICON Management" (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) = For sale "* = For internal use ©1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved.
Table 1-E. Expert Systems in Use Today -j 00 Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner Development (Developer) Software Intelligent Peripheral Troubleshoots computer peripheral Troubleshooter equipment Hewlett Packard oneywe Intelligent Software Help configure software for DPS 6 Configurator Barabara Braden computers 617-552-6351 ISS Three o Manages computer capacity International Systems Services Corporation 212-972-4400 More For Less Hawaii "Legal Expert" Legal advice on estate planning and investment David Bernstein 808-545-7117 H X Letter of Credit Assists in processing foreign *XJ 0 letters of Bank of America (U.K.) M Advisor credit (Helix-Fiona Bell 01-583-9391) en Helps X Macsyma o scientists and engineers with en problems Symbolics Inc. 617-576-2600 >3 mathematics M 3 Assists in en Matchware o accountants selecting Matchware Computer Services en appropriate software Gary Forsyt 317-841-8100 h3
Materials handling and scheduling of EXON IW "Material Handling" o (LMI) o manufacturing M discreet areas M (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) en Mcd Ex Intelligent interface to medical information 0 for the layman Perceptronics 213-641-2660
Mentor Diagnoses preventive maintenance need Honeywell for large central air conditioning systems Roy Joy 612-541-6807 Mercury Recommends interest swap deals Shearson American Express Bruce Gras Identifys commercially used Metals Analyst metals and General Electric Corp. £ alloys Tom Anthony 518-387-6160 c c = "- = CO o For sale For internal use ©1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved ft
Table 1-F. Expert Systems in Use Today 00 > c c Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner CO (Developer) ft protein Laboratories oo Micro" Analyzes blood serum readings Helena on instrument printouts (Rutgers Uni.) Beckman Micro Genie o Performs DNA and RNA analysis 800 DNA-ACGT (Sci Soft Inc) Identifies potential buyers from mailing Persoft Inc More o lists 617-935-0095 Nederlandsche Medderstandsbank "Mortgage Advisors" Rates new mortgage applications (Systems Designers Software) 617-935-8009 M X Diagnoses problems with "mud" used *0 Mudman in oil well drilling and recommends N.L Baroid Co. W new composition a en Monitors controls on space shuttle NASA-Bob Brown 713-483-4751 X NAVEX (Inference Corp.) en flights H3w (Leiann Lee 503-245-0905) ss Standard Telephone and Cables en Network Troubleshoots telephone switching en (Systems Designers Software) n3 Diagnostician equipment 617-935-8009 configures Checks orders and NCR (Teknowledge) o OCEAN computers NCR M ena Assists lithography R&D group in choosing Rockwell Oleophilic Advisor new materials (Teknowledge)
treatment of Advises physicians on the Stanford Medical Center Oncocin patients receiving chemotherapy Honeywell non-impact Page Printing PAGEI Troubleshoots Barbara Braden System 617-552-6351
Paradox Assists in management of relational Ansa Software databases o = For sale " = For internal use ©1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved
Table 1-G. Expert Systems in Use Today vo Name of System o Specific Domain and Task O Developer or Owner Development (Developer) Software Peanut/Pest 0 Recommends irrigation and pest control USDA for peanut (Georgia) farmers Sarah Parker (817)774-1201 Exsys Guides managers Performance Mentor 0 in shaping the AI Mentor Inc performance of subordinates 415-969-4500 Exsys Permaid oneywe Troubleshoots large disc drives Dave Rolston Loops 602-862-6925 on Xerox 1109 Photolithography Troubleshoots photolithographic Advisor problems in chip fabrication Hewlett-Packard HP-RL (Hewlett-Packard's proprietary tool) Pine Guide for entering info to retain database IBM about problems and fixes Dick Ten Dyke E.S. Environment /VM *X} 914-696-4435 Pipeline Advisor Helps determine flow characteristics British Hydronomic Research Assn. 3 within pipes (Systems Designers Software) en Poplog enX 617-935-8009 ►3 "Plant Safety 0 Advises managers on appropriate safety & Advisor" procedures Stone Webster Engineering en Gavin Finn 617-589-1567 MAlDService en PRESS oneywe Debugs operating systems software ■-3 Dave Rolston OPSS and W Q 602-862-6925 Mac Lisp M H "Process Optimization, TEXACO en O Process control for Energy Savings" (LMI) PICON (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) PTE Analyst Advises lawyers on prohibited transaction Computer o exceptions Law Systems Jill Swenson 612-941-3801 Personal Consultant Plus Purdue Grain o Helps farmers determine the best way Market Advisor to market grain Purdue University the they produce Personal Consultant Planpower Assists financial planners Lisp > o = " = c For sale For internal use c ©1986, CO . ._, Harmon Associates. All rights rt TableT. 1-H, reserved. Expert Systems in Use Today M oo o>» > c iQ Name of System o Specific Domain and C Task Developer or Owner Development CO (Developer) Software rt H Leeds and Northrup vo "Power Plant plant management oo Management" o Power (LMI) PICON (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) Interprets output of a pulmonary Developed Puff Pacific Medical Center in Emycin function instrument (medical) Implemented in Basic
Pump Pro o Preventive maintenance and Stone & Webster Engineering troubleshooting for centrifugal pumps Gavin Finn 617-589-1567 MAlDService Query management facility for use by IBM QMF Advisor project service representative to guide Dick Ten Dyke E.S. Environment /VM through problem solving session with client 914-696-4435 w x Diagnoses transmission faults in passenger Renault ""a "Repair Diagnosis" w cars (Cap Gemini Sogeti [Paris]) s en The Requirements Helps X accountants choose software Computer Training Services en Analyst 0 appropriate needs to their 301-468-4800 w enS Resource Air in assigning Assists Force officers (Perceptronics) en Apportionment Aid air units to missions and targets ►"3 (John Senning 213-641-2660) Rotating Equipment Stone & Webster Engineering Troubleshoots various rotating equipment Gavin Finn o Diagnostic System M 617-589-1567 entd RPMS Helps NASA officers in Resource Planning NASA and management
Schooner Troubleshoots asynchronous datacom links Hewlett-Packard Configures machine-room Site floor Layout Advisor" for computer systems and peripherals Hitachi - SNAP Assists new Infomart vistors Infomart Dallas TX to determine computer needs (Boeing Computer Serv.) Personal Consultant = " o For sale = For internal use © 1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved. Table 1-1. Expert Systems in Use Today Name of System o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner Development (Developer) Software "Source Rock Assists geologist in the evaluation Advisor" of oil potential of rock Phillips
Spin Helps scientist perform ultracentrifugation Pro o operations Beckman Instruments Badger "Styrene" o Simulate manufacture of styrene (LMI) (Rod Khanna 617-686-8382) " " IBM Storage System Test Manages final manufacturing test for storage systems Dick Ten Dyke 914-696-4435 "Switch Diagnoser" Troubleshoots telephone switching M equipment Bell Communications Research ca Honeywell s Syscon o Configures DPS 90 Mainframe Dave Rolston en enX 602-862-6925 i-3 TIMM-Tuner Assists system manager in en tuning General Research a VAX/VMS operating system en
TITAN Assists technicians in troubleshooting i-3 Radian H TPs 990 minicomputer Riese RuleMaster O Charles 512-454-4797 M Diagnoses large w TOGA faults in utility Radian en transformers based on gas chroma- RuleMaster tographic analysis of insulating oil Charles Riese 512-454-4797 TQMSTUNE Assists in tuning Triple Quadrapole Lawrence Livermore Labs Mass Spectrometers Carla Wong 415-422-0435 KEE "Train Breaking Controls locomotive braking for Advisor" accuracy and comfort Hitachi "Train Travel Helps travel agents plan Advisor" train itineraries Thomas Cook ESI Prolog-2 > c = For sale " = C For internal use © 1986, CO Harmon Associates. All rights reserved. rr Table 1-J. Expert Systems in Use Today oo > c System c Name of o Specific Domain and Task Developer or Owner CO (Developer) r+ M 10 Troubleshooting in diagnosing 00 o Assists technicians Tektronix Aid for F6502 and repairing a F6502 instrument in diagnosis of problems Radian TURBOMATIC o Aids vibration in large turbomachinery Charles Riese 512-454-4797 Unit Committment Helps schedule power plant fire up and IBM Advisor o shut-down to meet demand Dick Ten Dyke 914-696-4435
Warehouse Planner" o Assists in automated warehousing Hitachi
X Water Permit Review Helps review for water use permits Software Architecture and System applications :ngmeermg Inc.-Jack Collins) w 703-276-7910) 3 en Helps geologists choose appropriate enX WAVES 0 Teknowledge t-3 process for siesmic data W S Stone & Webster Engineering en Weld Defect Diagnosis Helps welding en System Determine cause of defects Gavin Finn ►3 617-589-1567 5 Weld Procedures Advises welders on procedures materials Stone & Webster Engineering Gavin Finn O Selection System and electrolite type M 617-589-1567 enw Weld Selector (B&W) Helps welding engineers choose proper Babcock and Wilcox weld procedures (Intellicorp 415-965-5500) Helps welding engineers proper (AWI) o choose American Welding Institute Weld Selector weld procedures (Colorado School of Mines) Welder Qualification Helps managers choose appropriate Stone & Webster Engineering Test Selection System qualification tests for welders Gavin Finn 617-589-1567 Aids diagnosis wheat Wheat Counselor o in the of ICI [Imperial Chemicals] diseases = " = o For sale For internal use ©1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved.
Table 1-K. Expert M Systems in Use Today W X M 3 en enX " ►3 o = For sale = For internal use ©1986, Harmon Associates. All rights reserved. en Table 1-L, en Expert Systems in Use Today ►3 3 W O w TheTHIRDlEEECONFERENCEon enW ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEAPPLICATIONS
willbeheldinOrlando,Florida,onFebruary22-28,1987 Thisconference whichisemergingasamajormeetingforpeople systems interested in commercialexpert applications,hasissued a callforpapers.TheprogramcommitteeisespecEterested inpapers describing AItechniques thatwilllead tocommercialapplicationsandpapesthat describesuccessfulorganizationaleffortstoemployAIincommercialsettings > Full-lengthpapers must c bereceivedbySEPTEMBER 9,1986. iQ C Papers CO shouldbesubmittedtotheProgramCommitteeChairs- ft JamesMillerand H ElaineRich,c/oThirdlEEEConference
© 1986 Harmon Associates. All rights reserved. -* 16 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES August 1986
© 1986 Harmon Associates. All rights reserved. August 1986 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES 17
© 1986 Harmon Associates. All rights reserved.
TOOLS EXPERT SYSTEMS-BUILDING TOOLS Tables 3A-3C list all of the expert If you systems-building are at AAAI, we suggest that you tools that we know use this about as chart as a checklist and update this newsletter is completed. it during your We have visits to vendor's undoubtedly missed several small exhibits. tools, but we probably have all of the large and mid-sized tools and we We have divided certainly have the tools into eight all of the tools that categories. Large hybrid are being actively tools represent advertised in the the most complex expert trade press. systems develop- ment environments currently available. Until recently these tools As you examine the charts you were only will available in Lisp and only ran on notice that we indicate the Lisp name of the machines, VAX's, and Unix tool (and the vendor), the price workstations of the configured for Lisp. Mid-sized hybrid tool (a range if the tool is offered at tools is a new category of tools different prices on different hardware), that run on personal computers and provide the approximate number the vendor environments with a number of knowledge claimed to have sold as of January 1986, representationparadigms. This the number of fielded systems category that have is new with this listing, but been built using that particular tool, we expect it to grow rapidly in the next two and the hardware on which the years tool runs. as PC hardware improves and people Vendors are constantly expanding find the that they can build and large, range of hardware options available, run so multi-paradigm systems on PCs. our data may be a little out of date. Likewise, vendors will be introducing Large rule-based tools tend to new tools at AAAI and may be offer changing context trees and run on Prices or adding other hardware mainframes, options. VAXs, Lisp machines, or Unix 18 EXPERT SYSTEMS > STRATEGlES Au ust 1986 workstations. Mid-sized rule-based tool, but it's equally foolish to tools also generallyoffer attempt context to master the complexities of large trees, but they run on personal computers. a tool in order to solve a problem Small rule-based more tools run on personal appropriate for one computers but lack of the simple PC- context trees, based tools to solve. Emycin-like confidence factors, and some of the other editing features available You should also be careful not in the mid-sized tools. to draw any conclusions based on price. Many good tools are priced low and some of Inductive tools generate rules the tools from on this list are outrageously examples. These weak but friendly overpriced. matrix-based tools come in two sizes: Also keep in mind large tools, that a tool is much inductive which run on more than just an and PCs, inference engine and a mainframes and small inductive knowledge representation tools that run only on personal paradigm. It computers. includes a developer interface, a user interface, and utilities to pass data to or from other programs or Finally, we have listed domain specific databases. Depending on the hardware on which it tools. These tools are specifically runs and the language in which it designed only to develop systems is expert written, a tool may or may not be easy for a particular domain. We expect this to field, and it may or may not fast category to expand run rapidly in coming enough your years. for users. Moreover, you buy more than a tool when you give your money to a vendor. You obtain some In previous lists we included a category package of training, support, and for logic-based tools, we have dropped consulting services and some agreement the category since most logic-based tools on future updates. Some vendors have been improved to the point have where the special expertise in particular problem developer does not not to need be aware domains or in fielding systems on of the logic but can simply focus on particular hardware, and that can also developing rules. Hence tools that were be an important formerly listed logic-based consideration. All of as tools are these things need to now listed under one be taken into of the rule-based account when you categories. decide to purchase a tool; they are not adequately reflected in Table 3, where we simply We do not intend to suggest divide the that tools tools on the basis of in any one group their knowledge are better or worse representation strategy. than those in another. The appropriate tool must be determined by the nature Table 4 is a simplified version of the of the problem that is to be solved. chart that we use when examining Some problems demand small a tool. inductive If you are considering a purchase, tools, some others require mid-sized we suggest you use some version of this rule-based tools, and other problems chart when talking with potential vendors. call for large or mid-sized hybrid tools, it's frustrating to attempt a Addresses and telephone numbers of vendors complex problem with a weak, inflexible in Table 3 are listed on pages 22-23.
AAAI-86 Please stop by to visit us at booth F-4, in the foyer. Meet Editor Paul Harmon and learn about our information products in the expert systems field! August 1986 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES 19
© 1986 Harmon Associates. All rights reserved.
i * 20 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES August 1986
Table. 3-B Hardware O© CO "5 -B°° 1 CURRENTEXPERTSYSTEM CD o *- _ BUILDINGTOOLS CO — E ed x *—cd> "— O m o-° -a CO c s'S .8 g.2 — TOOL *- Q. o S D_
Advisor $99.50- IBM,Apple (Ultimate Media) 295 luu0 Commodore VAX IBM Q Apes $1-6K NA HI (Programming Logic Systems) Prolog Prolog % August 1986 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES 21 © 1986 Harmon Associates. All rights reserved ■*> 22 EXPERT SYSTEMS STRATEGIES August 1986 J 3! Table. 3-D CO Hardware CURRENT SYSTEM o __ CO E EXPERT o B BUILDINGTOOLS h- c/> CD __* "~03 o .E o is9 C/> E o "— CO cz «- 5.IT "is CD cl> c/> c= 2> c/> O *— — Q_ 0-32 _2 CO »— TOOL 6z _y ° *^. ° (Vendor) 2 £ 3^w >11l EX-TRAN 7 $3.5-47K NA IBM.VAX IBM (Intelligent Terminals) Fortran Fortran Fortran DCO RuleMaster $1-17K 60 3 VAX IBM (Radian Corp.) C C UJ H C O TIMM < lss-39.5K 30 1 IBM IBM -I (General Research) Fortran Fortran Expert-Ease $695 NA (Human Edge) IBM Pascal >LU Ist Class $495 250 2 IBM (Programs O in Motion) Pascal 3CO KDS $400 150 IBM (KDS Corp) 58Jh Assembly -J < Super Expert $199- NA CO (Softsync, Inc.) -1,200 IBM "W CO IN-ATE, LISP _l $15K LMI' o (Automated Reasoning Corp.) NA Symbolics <^- IN-ATE, 50 MICRO $2.5K Mac oy. (Automated Reasoning Corp.) C in Q_ PICON CO $60K 8 LMI (Lisp Machine Inc.) Lisp © 1986 Harmon Associates. All rights reserved. - TABLE 4 VENDORLIST Acorn ExperOPSs KEE Personal Consultant& GoldHill Computers ExperTelligence IntelliCorp PersonalConsultantPlus 163 HarvardStreet 559San YsidroRoad 1975 ElCaminoReal West Texas Instruments Cambridge, MA02139 Santa Barbara,CA93108 MountainView,CA 94040-2216 12501ResearchBlvd.MS2244 (800)242-LISP or (805)969-7874 (415)965-5633 P.O.Box 2909 (617)492-2071 (in MA) Contact:Jim Giles Contact:SueBrown Austin, TX 78769 Contact:Jane Dusza (512)250-6785 ExpertEase&ExpertEdge KnowledgeCraft Advisor HumanEdgeSoftwareCorp. Carnegie Group PICON Ultimate Media,Inc. 2445FaberPlace 650Commerce Lisp MachineInc. 275 Magnolia Aye. Court PaloAlto, CA94303 StationSquare 6033 West Century Blvd. Larkspur,CA94939 (415)493-1593 Pittsburg, (415)924-3644 PA15219 Suite900 Contact:JimChapman (412)642-6900 Los Angeles,CA90045 Contact:WilliamMaulton Contact:MichaelChambers (617)682-0500 Contact:Rod Khanna * > us EXPERT SYSTEMS - STRATEGIES 23 Table 4 VENDOR LIST (conw.) AionDevelopmentSystem/MVS EXSYS Knowledge &AionDevelopmentSystem/PC ExsysInc. Workbench RuleMaster AionCorp. Silogic,Inc. RadianCorp. RQ Box75157,ContractSta. 14 9841 AirportBlvd., 101 University Aye. Albuquerque,NM87194 Suite600 8501Mo-PacBlvd. Palo Alto,CA 94301 Los Angeles,CA 90045 (505)836-6676 (213)337-7477 RQ Box9948 (415)924-9595 Contact:Dustin Huntington Austin, TX 78766 Contact:JoelVoelz Contact:Jim Boates (512)454-4797 Apes IstClass Knowol & Contact:BenFinkel Programs in Motion Knowol+ ProgrammingLogic Systems IntelligentMachineCo. Super Expert 31CrescentDrive 10 SycamoreRd. 1907RedOak Circle Wayland,MA 01778 Softsync, Inc Milford.CT06460 Newport Richey,FL33553 162 Aye. (203)877-7988 (617)655-6005 (813)844-3262 Madison Contact: Hapgood NewYork,NY 10016 Contact:RobertaHanson William Contact:Jeffrey Ferris (212)685-2080 Contact:NigelSearle ArityExpertSystem GURU LispIn-Ate & MicroIn-Ate DevelopmentPackage MicroDataBaseSystems,Inc. AutomatedReasoningCorp TIMM ArityCorporation RQR0- Box 248 290 W. 12th Street,Suite 1-D GeneralResearch 385385Baker Aye. Lafayette,IN47902 NewYork, NY (317)447-1122(317)447-1122 10014 7655 Old Springhouse Road Concord,Doncord,MA 01742 (212)206-6331 McLean, VA 22102 (617)371-1243'617)371-1243 Contact:Kevin Castleberry Contact:RichardCantone (703)893-5915 Contact:MeredithBartlett Contact: " HUMBLE LOOPS WandaRappaport 1 XeroxSpecial Information XeroxCorp. TOPSI Inference Corp. Systems 250N.Halstead Dynamic 5300 St. MasterSystems, Inc WestCenturyBlvd.,sthFloor 250N. Halstead P.O. Box 7018 P.O. Box566456 Los Angeles,CA90045 P.O. Box 7018 Pasadena, (213)417-7997 CA 91109 Atlanta,GA30356 Pasadena,CA 91109 (818)351-2351 (Ext. 1603) (404)565-0771 Contact:DonaldGammon, (818)351-2351 vp Contact:DeborahKelfer Contact:DavidSmith Sales Contact:Dan E.Dody DUCK M.l&S.l TWAICE |KE Teknowledge,Inc. Logicware,Inc. lnc- 525UniversityAye. (RepresentingNixdorf ssr"* PaloAlto, CA94301 Computer) (415)327-6600 1000 Finch Aye. West,Suite600 (617)689-3554 Contact:Dma Barr Downsview,OntarioM3J 2V5 K^DougBerry Canada f ENVISAGE &SAGE Insight 1&Insight 2+ MacKIT (416)665-0022 SystemsDesigners eßesearch KnowledgeSystems Contact:Michael Software Inc. A - Anthony 444 WashingtonSt.,Suite407 f?■VfthAve Environments Woburn, MA01801 Indialantic,FL 32903 201South YorkRoad VAX OPSS (617)935-8009 (305)729-9046 Dillsburg,PA17019 DigitalEquipment Corp.(DEC) Contact:BruceHolt Contact:Cornelius Willis (717)766-4496 T7 ReedRoad(HLO2-3/EO9) Contact:EdBeauregard Hudson, MA01749-2895 ESEnvironment/VM & Intelligence/Compiler (617)568-4000 ESEnvironment/MVS IntelligenceWareInc. MicroExpert Contact:JuanitaThiel IBM 9800S. SepulvedaBlvd McGraw-Hill BookCompany P.O.Box 10 Suite730 P.O. Box 400 VP Expert Princeton,NJ08540 Los Angeles,CA90045 Hightstown, NJ08520 PaperbackSoftwareInt (201)329-7000 (213)417-8896 (609)426-5750 2830NinthStreet Contact: Redfield, Contact: Parsaye Contact:DebbieInnie Berkeley,CA 94710 W.S. Jr. Kamran (415)644-2116 ESPAdvisor KESandKES II Nexpert ExpertSystemsInternational SoftwareArchitecture& NeuronData WisdomXS 1700 WalnutStreet Engineering 444High St. SIL, Inc. ,ph,a'PA Palo Alto, 1593 LocustAye. /o«Sf 19103 1500 Wilson Blvd.,Suite800 CA 94301 Bohemia, (215)735-8510 Arlington, VA 22209 (415)321-4488 NY 11716 Contact:Susan Strange (703)276-7910 Contact:Patrick Perez (516)589-1676 Contact:ConnieChun EST (ExpertSystems Toolkit) Contact:AndrewCopland OPSSe XPER MindPathProducts kfq/vc Verac,Inc. 12750 Drive, Abacus Merit L.B. T7 rZnZfn ♥ RO. Box 26669,Dept. 418 Software Dallas,Texas 75251 ° SanDiego, P.O.Box7211 (214)770-5435 RQTO BnLBoxn^nwna^HQWO96 CA 92126-0669 *"* (619)457-5550 Grand Rapids,Ml 48510 Con!act:A,e*Tsakiris Contact:Sally Tumia (616)241-5510 %&£&?" Contact:Abacus EX-TRAN7 Contact:JoanneHenry Software Intelligent OPSB3 XSYS TerminalsLtd. Production Systems c/oJeffrey Perrone& Assoc. ,K CaliforniaIntelligence KDSPfCorporation Technologies,Inc. 368517thStreet 642Gettysburg 912PowellStreet #8 SanFrancisco, CA94114 934Hunter Road Street San Francisco, CA Wilmette, Pittsburg, PA15206 94108 (415)431-9562 IL 60091 (412)362-3117 (415)391-4846 Contact:Jeffrey Perrone (312)256-4201 Contact:RayWinestock Contact:William J.Wallace Contact:Diana Connan