National Ballot

January 29th, 2012

Tories lead by 8, Grits and NDP statistically tied

METHODOLOGY QUESTION: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference) To follow is a review of the latest Nanos national random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians 18 years 60% of age and older. It was completed between January 20th and 23rd, 49.0% 50% 2012. The statistics of a random sample of 1,201 respondents are accurate to within 2.8 percentage 37.0% 40% 37.6% points, plus or minus, 19 times out 35.0% 36.0% 35.7% of 20. For 927 committed voters, it 30.0% is accurate to within 3.2 percentage 30% 27.6% points, plus or minus, 19 times out 30.0% 26.2% 25.2% of 20. 18.2% 18.0% 20% 16.0% Results for 2011-12 are from a 10.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% random telephone survey of 1,201 10% Canadians conducted between 5.6% th th 4.0% 6.8% December 15 and 18 , 2011. 6.0% 6.0% 4.5% 0% Any use of this research data should identify it as a “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”.

Green NDP Liberal Conservative BQ

REGIONAL BALLOT

Canada Atlantic Canada* Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia

2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 Committed Voters** n=900 n=927 n=92 n=87 n=198 n=214 n=282 n=280 n= 192 n=195 n=136 n=151

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Conservative 36.5 35.7 41.6 29.5 20.8 15.1 34.5 42.1 54.5 48.1 34.4 41.0

Liberal 25.6 27.6 29.1 33.6 22.9 26.5 31.8 35.1 19.4 20.5 22.8 21.2

NDP 28.7 25.2 26.0 35.2 33.4 29.0 29.5 16.9 20.8 25.9 33.2 28.5

BQ 4.4 5.6 - - 19.9 24.1 ------

Green 3.8 4.5 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 3.5 5.4 3.6 4.7 8.7 8.1

Margin of error ±3.3 ±3.2 ±10.4 ±10.7 ±7.1 ±6.8 ±5.9 ±5.9 ±7.2 ±7.1 ±8.5 ±8.1

Undecided 25.1 22.8 23.5 27.1 34.0 28.5 21.4 22.3 20.1 19.0 25.1 16.2

*Note: Small sample size **Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding or other party mentions

Media inquiries should be directed to: Nik Nanos at [email protected] or (613) 234-4666 x237. Visit the Nanos website to sign up for instant email updates at www.nanosresearch.com. Get the new free Nanos iPhone app at http://bit.ly/nanosapp.

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National Ballot

January 29th, 2012

NDP down in Quebec and Ontario

ATLANTIC BALLOT BY REGION 50% Margin of Error Region (19 times out of 20) 45% 45.6% 40% Atlantic ±10.7 35.2% 35% 31.8% 33.6% Quebec ±6.8 30% 29.5% Ontario ±5.9 25% 19.1% 20% Prairies ±7.1 15% British Columbia ±8.1 10% 3.5% 5% 1.7% 0%

Conservative Liberal NPD Green ONTARIO QUEBEC 50% 60% 45% 42.4% 42.1% 40% 50% 40.9% 35.1% 35% 40% 38.0% 30%

35.4% 25% 30% 29.0% 26.5% 20% 24.1% 16.9% 20% 15% 14.0% 11.5% 15.1% 10% 10% 5.2% 10.8% 5% 5.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0% 0%

Conservative Liberal NPD BQ Green Conservative Liberal NPD Green

PRAIRIES BRITISH COLUMBIA

70% 60%

60% 50% 48.2% 50% 48.1% 41.0% 40% 36.4% 40%

30% 30.4% 28.5% 30% 26.2% 25.9% 24.0% 20% 21.2% 20% 20.5% 19.8% 10% 10% 5.8% 9.2% 8.1% 4.7%

0% 0%

Conservative Liberal NPD Green Conservative Liberal NDP Green

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National Issue

January 29th, 2012

Jobs/economy pulls away from healthcare

METHODOLOGY QUESTION: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted] Between January 20th and 23rd, 2012, Nanos Research conducted a 60% random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey 50% of 1,201 Canadians is accurate 43.8% plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 40% Results for 2011-12 are from a random telephone survey of 1,201 30% Canadians conducted between 27.8% December 15th and 18th, 2011. A random telephone survey of 1,201 20% 20.3% Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 9.5% times out of 20. 10% 10.7% 6.0% 5.1% 3.3% Any use of this research data 4.2% 2.7% should identify it as a 0% “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”.

Environment Education Jobs/economy Healthcare Debt/deficit

TOP ISSUES

2011-12 2012-01

Responses (%)* n=1,201 n=1,201 Change

% %

Jobs/economy 25.0 27.8 +2.8

Healthcare 22.6 20.3 -2.3

The environment 9.7 10.7 +1.0

Education 7.2 5.1 -2.1

Debt/deficit 5.1 3.3 -1.8

Unsure 9.5 13.5 +4.0

*Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding

Media inquiries should be directed to: Nik Nanos at [email protected] or (613) 234-4666 x237. Visit the Nanos Research website to sign up for instant email updates at www.nanosresearch.com. Get the new free Nanos iPhone app at http://bit.ly/nanosapp.

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Leadership Index

January 29th, 2012

Harper ahead, Rae pulls away from Turmel

METHODOLOGY

To follow is a review of the latest Nanos national random telephone survey of 120.0 1,201 Canadians 18 years of age and 101.0 older. It was completed between 100.0 99.8 January 20th and 23rd, 2012. The statistics of a random sample of 1,201 respondents is accurate to within 2.8 80.0 Dion Ignatieff Rae Turmel Paillé percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Readers should note 60.0 54.4 that the data was weighted for gender 49.6 and age to match the Canadian census 47.2 results. 40.0

22.2 Results should be considered 20.0 16.7 17.2 representative of the Canadian 14.8 7.0 population. Results may not add up to 0.0 100% due to rounding.

Results for 2011-12 are from a random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians conducted between December 15th and Stephen Harper Bob Rae Nycole Turmel Daniel Paillé Elizabeth May 18th, 2011.

Any use of this research data should identify it as a “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”.

LEADERSHIP INDICATORS

Trust Competence Vision for Canada Leadership Index Score

Leaders* 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 n=1,201 n=1,201 n=1,201 n=1,201 n=1,201 n=1,201 2011-12 2012-01 % % % % % %

Stephen Harper 30.8 30.1 38.4 37.8 31.3 31.9 100.5 99.8

Bob Rae 14.9 16.8 15.1 17.1 11.4 15.7 41.4 49.6

Nycole Turmel 9.4 8.7 8.0 5.0 11.5 8.5 28.9 22.2

Elizabeth May 9.8 8.2 2.6 3.1 7.4 5.9 19.8 17.2

Daniel Paillé - 2.7 - 2.2 - 2.1 - 7.0

None of them 17.4 14.8 11.3 12.2 12.5 11.1

Undecided 17.6 18.7 24.6 22.6 25.9 24.9

Margin of error ±2.8 ±2.8 ±2.8 ±2.8 ±2.8 ±2.8 *Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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Leader with Best Vision

January 29th, 2012 Harper first in best vision nationally, three-way tie in Quebec

METHODOLOGY As you may know, [ROTATE] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is leader To follow is a review of the latest Nanos of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the leader national random telephone survey of with the best vision for Canada’s future? 1,201 Canadians 18 years of age and older. It was completed between 40% January 20th and 23rd, 2012. The statistics of a random sample of 1,201 respondents is accurate to within 2.8 35% percentage points, plus or minus, 19 32.0% 31.9% times out of 20. 30% Dion Ignatieff Rae Turmel Paillé Readers should note that the data was 25% 24.9% weighted for gender and age to match 18.3% 20% the Canadian census results. Results 17.3% should be considered representative of 15.7% the Canadian population. Results may 15% not add up to 100% due to rounding. 15.2% 11.1% 10% 8.5% Results for 2011-12 are from a random 8.6% 5.9% 5.9% telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians 5% conducted between December 15th and 18th, 2011. 2.7% 2.1% 0%

Any use of this research data should identify it as a “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”. Bob Rae Stephen Harper Daniel Paillé Nycole Turmel

Elizabeth May None of them Undecided

LEADER WITH BEST VISION FOR CANADA Canada Atlantic* Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia

2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 Leaders** n=1,201 n=1,201 n=120 n=120 n=300 n=300 n=359 n=360 n=240 n=241 n=182 n=180

% % % % % % % % % % % % Stephen 31.3 31.9 33.2 26.2 20.6 15.4 29.2 39.6 44.1 42.6 35.0 33.3 Harper Bob 11.4 15.7 11.4 15.8 12.7 19.3 13.9 15.4 8.8 12.7 7.6 13.9 Rae Nycole 11.5 8.5 4.9 5.1 18.4 14.9 10.7 5.8 7.6 6.3 11.0 8.4 Turmel Elizabeth 7.4 5.9 8.4 3.4 7.1 6.3 8.6 4.9 5.4 5.9 7.5 9.1 May Daniel - 2.1 - 1.1 - 5.7 - 1.1 - 0.4 - 0.7 Paillé None of 12.5 11.1 18.1 9.0 14.1 15.7 13.5 8.5 8.7 10.7 9.4 10.3 them Undecided 25.9 24.9 24.1 39.4 27.0 22.7 24.1 24.7 25.4 21.4 29.5 24.2 Margin of ±2.8 ±2.8 ±9.1 ±9.1 ±5.7 ±5.7 ±5.2 ±5.2 ±6.4 ±6.4 ±7.4 ±7.4 error * Note: Small sample size **Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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Most Trustworthy Leader

January 29th, 2012 Harper ahead on trust nationally, tied with Rae in Quebec

METHODOLOGY As you may know, [ROTATE] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc To follow is a review of the latest Nanos Québécois, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is national random telephone survey of leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the 1,201 Canadians 18 years of age and most trustworthy leader? older. It was completed between January 20th and 23rd, 2012. The 40% statistics of a random sample of 1,201

respondents is accurate to within 2.8 35% percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Readers should note 29.8% 30% 30.1% that the data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results. 25% 21.4% Dion Ignatieff Rae Turmel Paillé 20% Results should be considered 18.7% representative of the Canadian 16.8% population. Results may not add up to 15% 14.4% 14.8%

100% due to rounding. 10.3% 10% 10.0% 8.7% Results for 2011-12 are from a random 7.7% 8.2% 6.3% telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians 5% conducted between December 15th and 2.7% 18th, 2011. 0%

Any use of this research data should identify it as a “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”. Bob Rae Stephen Harper Daniel Paillé Nycole Turmel

Elizabeth May None of them Undecided

THE MOST TRUSTWORTHY LEADER Canada Atlantic* Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia

2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 Leaders** n=1,201 n=1,201 n=120 n=120 n=300 n=300 n=359 n=360 n=240 n=241 n=182 n=180

% % % % % % % % % % % % Stephen 30.8 30.1 32.6 24.3 22.4 17.5 27.4 34.8 43.8 39.0 33.3 33.5 Harper Bob 14.9 16.8 14.4 13.8 19.6 20.2 16.5 20.3 10.5 10.6 10.3 14.9 Rae Nycole 9.4 8.7 3.4 11.4 16.8 12.7 9.2 6.1 6.6 7.4 5.3 7.2 Turmel Elizabeth 9.8 8.2 9.6 8.0 4.5 4.3 12.0 8.5 8.1 8.1 16.5 14.4 May Daniel - 2.7 - 1.1 - 7.5 - 1.2 - 1.2 - 0.7 Paillé None of 17.4 14.8 22.5 10.4 17.1 20.2 18.4 10.4 14.8 17.7 16.3 13.4 them Undecided 17.6 18.7 17.5 31.0 19.7 17.6 16.6 18.7 16.2 15.9 18.3 15.9 Margin of ±2.8 ±2.8 ±9.1 ±9.1 ±5.7 ±5.7 ±5.2 ±5.2 ±6.4 ±6.4 ±7.4 ±7.4 error * Note: Small sample size **Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding

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Most Competent Leader

January 29th, 2012

Harper leads on competence nationally, tied with Rae in Quebec

METHODOLOGY As you may know, [ROTATE] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, and Elizabeth May is To follow is a review of the latest Nanos leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the national random telephone survey of most competent leader? 1,201 Canadians 18 years of age and older. It was completed between 45% January 20th and 23rd, 2012. The statistics of a random sample of 1,201 40% respondents is accurate to within 2.8 39.2% 37.8% percentage points, plus or minus, 19 35% times out of 20. Readers should note that the data was weighted for gender 30% Dion Rae Paillé and age to match the Canadian census Ignatieff Turmel

results. 25% 22.6% Results should be considered 20%

representative of the Canadian 14.7% 17.1% population. Results may not add up to 15% 100% due to rounding. 13.0% 12.2% 10% 8.7% Results for 2011-12 are from a random 5.0% 5% 5.8% telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians 3.1% 3.1% conducted between December 15th and 2.2% 0% 18th, 2011.

Any use of this research data should Bob Rae Stephen Harper Daniel Paillé Nycole Turmel identify it as a “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”. Elizabeth May None of them Undecided

THE MOST COMPETENT LEADER Canada Atlantic* Quebec Ontario Prairies British Columbia

2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 2011-12 2012-01 Leaders** n=1,201 n=1,201 n=120 n=120 n=300 n=300 n=359 n=360 n=240 n=241 n=182 n=180

% % % % % % % % % % % % Stephen 38.4 37.8 41.5 33.7 25.6 23.6 38.0 41.7 50.4 49.5 42.6 40.5 Harper Bob 15.1 17.1 10.3 14.9 18.2 21.7 18.2 18.6 9.1 13.2 14.8 13.1 Rae Nycole 8.0 5.0 4.4 2.1 15.3 6.1 6.2 5.1 6.1 5.9 4.5 3.6 Turmel Elizabeth 2.6 3.1 3.5 1.5 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.7 6.5 May Daniel - 2.2 - 1.5 - 6.7 - 0.4 - 1.0 - 0.4 Paillé None of them 11.3 12.2 18.1 13.0 13.6 15.5 9.6 8.7 7.6 11.6 10.9 14.2

Undecided 24.6 22.6 22.2 33.2 25.5 23.7 25.4 23.0 24.5 16.2 23.4 21.7 Margin of ±2.8 ±2.8 ±9.1 ±9.1 ±5.7 ±5.7 ±5.2 ±5.2 ±6.4 ±6.4 ±7.4 ±7.4 error * Note: Small sample size **Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Media inquiries should be directed to: Nik Nanos at [email protected] or (613) 234-4666 x237. Visit the Nanos website to sign up for instant email updates at www.nanosresearch.com. Get the new free Nanos iPhone app at http://bit.ly/nanosapp.

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