Tells the Facts and Names the Names

Feb 1-15, 2011 Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Clair vol. 18, no. 3 For CounterPunch Subscribers

This File Contains all retains a significant comparative Palestinian issue (Reftel b). A subsequent advantage as one of the few Arab states Qatari foray into the Sudan political con- the State Department with stature in the West and within the flict elicited similar Egyptian disdain, but cables discussed in Arab world, and the only major player no counter-approach or strategy (Reftel that has communication with both Israel c). 5. (S/NF) When Egypt came through Kathleen Christison’s and Hamas. If the can come on the six-month “tahdiya” (calming) in article in CounterPunch to fully understand that their role as the June 2007, it reaffirmed its centrality on “indispensable Arab state” is contingent Gaza. But the recent Gaza crisis opened newsletter Volume 18, on being pro-active on key regional is- the door for Arab diplomatic competi- Number 3. Feb. 1-15, sues, including containing Iranian influ- tors, and despite the full attention of EGIS ence, we will continue to have an effec- Chief Omar Soliman, the Egyptians and 2011. Cables 7192, 7201, tive partner to work with, alongside other Saudis have barely held the line against regional states such as Saudi Arabia and those who wish to seat Hamas at an Arab 7304, 7360, 7395, 7415, Jordan. End Summary. The Egyptian League meeting. Although Foreign Policy Approach ------Secretary General Moussa is supportive 7423, 6253, follow. ------3. (S/NF) Egypt seeks to be of Egypt’s primacy on the Palestinian the “go to” Arab ally for Western powers question, the Arab League itself appears Cable 7192 and at the same time be appreciated in to have lost the ability to manage intra- the eyes of the Arab public as defend- Arab dynamics at least for the moment. S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ing Arab interests against post-colonial Maintenance of Egyptian influence ---- 000118 SIPDIS NOFORN NSC FOR foreign domination. This strategic di------6. (S/NF) Egypt is SHAPIRO AND PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: chotomy is becoming increasingly dif- traditionally risk-averse, driven in large 01/21/2019 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAL, IS, ficult to maintain as seen in the string of part by Mubarak’s personality, as well as EG SUBJECT: ASSESSMENT OF EGYPT’S regional crises (e.g. Iraq, Sudan, Lebanon the desire for stability. But the Egyptians REGIONAL ROLE IN THE WAKE OF GAZA and the intra-Palestinian conflict) and may be waking up to the need for a REF: A. CAIRO 98 B. CAIRO 1206 (2008) intra-Arab strife. The U.S., in particular, more dynamic approach. In the run-up C. CAIRO 2475 (2008) Classified By: has not been satisfied that Egypt is doing to Israel’s military action in Gaza, Soliman Ambassador Margaret Scobey Reasons: enough, while the Egyptian and regional was well aware of Egypt’s political vul- 1.4 (B) and (D) Summary and Introduction public increasingly criticizes the GOE nerability, including exposure to wither------1. (S/NF) The serious for “abdication” of its role as Arab leader ing domestic and regional criticism, but intra-Arab rifts exposed by the Gaza cri- (Reftel a) 4. (S/NF) At the same time, the told us that the Egyptian strategic inter- sis also highlighted both the extent and Egyptians are concerned at the emerg- est was tied to increased pressure on limitations of Egypt’s role in leading the ing Arab bloc of states that they see as Hamas. Throughout the IDF action, our moderate Arab position. The Gaza crisis increasingly webbed into Iran’s strategic Egyptian interlocutors privately focused was only the most recent, and significant, aim of obtaining regional dominance. their ire on Syria and Qatar, as opposed event to expose the polarization of Egypt Unfortunately, the Egyptian response to CAIRO 00000118 002 OF 002 Israel. The and Saudi Arabia at one end of the Arab has often been inadequate or flatfooted. GOE publicized the arrest of terrorist cells political spectrum, and Syria and Qatar For example, during the 2007 Lebanese connected with Iran in mid-January. We at the other. The impasse has exposed political impasse, the GOE, along with assess that the Egyptians believe their erosion of Egypt’s ability to drive a com- the Saudis, were largely outmaneuvered primary strategic threat is Iran, that the mon Arab position, especially in dealing in the Arab League by a pro-Syria bloc. current theater of combat is the intra-Ar- with smaller, affluent Arab states within Although the Egyptians did not object ab struggle for primacy, and the current the consensus-based Arab League sys- to the substantive result of the March battle is the intra-Palestinian dispute. 7. tem. The Egyptians and moderate Arab 2007 Doha conference on Lebanon, our (S/NF) The Egyptians, along with its tra- partners have also struggled to manage interlocutors laid down a clear marker ditional Arab partners, have the ability to the searing impact of domestic and re- that neither the Qataris nor anyone else prevail, but the victory of the moderate gional public criticism. 2. (S/NF) However, would take away the Egyptian lead on the Arab position is not a foregone conclu- feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert sion. If Egypt fails to maintain its influ- and prescriptive. The Egyptians have re- ership will hope to see in your visit signs ence, the Arab regional consensus may quested we consult with them first prior that the U.S. will give urgency to address- tilt toward Hamas and Iran, and away to any new USG regional policy initiative, ing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a from support for PA President Abbas and especially if it involves Syria. We should hope that the U.S. approach will be seen the two-state solution. If Egypt cedes its honor this request, and seek to involve as balanced. Healing the Palestinian rift is position as “champion of the Palestinians,” the Egyptians (as well as other regional critical, but may hinge on re-establishing it will cement the current domestic op- partners such as Saudi Arabia) in imple- a Syrian track in the peace process. position charge (Reftel a) that the GOE mentation of any new policy approach. Egyptian-Syrian relations, never good, are has failed to deliver on this account, For their part, the Egyptians should be particularly hostile at this juncture with something that could have lasting nega- pressed to move forward with naming an Mubarak seeing Syria acting aggressively tive consequences. For these reasons, ambassador for Iraq and reopening the as Tehran’s proxy in undermining we should assist Egypt and its partners embassy in Baghdad, and we should urge Egyptian Arab leadership. It will be im- in the current intra-Arab power struggle them to work with the Saudis on support- portant for us to consult closely with the however we can. 8. (S/NF) In the short ing the Lebanese Government as parlia- GOE on our approach to Syria and term, the Egyptians will need to estab- mentary elections approach. 10. (S/NF) Lebanon because of Egypt’s overriding lish control of the Arab debate over the The disarray within Arab ranks provides strategic view of the Iranian threat. GOE intra-Palestinian dispute heading into Iran a strategic opening to back extrem- anger over what they perceived as U.S. the Arab League annual summit, which ist groups and move the centrist posi- intervention in Iraq that did not heed the is scheduled for late March in Doha. The tion away from negotiations and a two- advice and interests of regional partners Egyptian donors conference for Gaza, ex- state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian. like Egypt has abated somewhat, but pected to be held in February, is a good Ultimately it is Egypt, and more specifi- President Mubarak believes that the way to maintain the initiative following cally President Mubarak’s leadership, that post-Saddam vacuum has unleashed the Sharm el Sheikh Summit of January will be critical if we are to support the Iranian regional ambitions, including 18, but more will be needed. 9. (S/NF) moderate Arab position. The recent crisis now in Gaza via Hamas. End summary. --- Within our bilateral relationship, we need over Gaza brought into focus some of the ------to increase Egyptian confidence that we vulnerabilities in Egypt,s leadership role, The Egyptian Approach on the Israeli- will support a more assertive GOE ap- but also highlighted the fact only Egypt Palestinian Conflict proach to blunting Iranian momentum, was willing and able to step forward with ------which extends beyond the current intra- an aggressive diplomatic, propaganda, -- 3. (S/NF) Resolution of the Israeli- Arab Hamas standoff. The Gaza crisis has and political counter-attack against Iran Palestinian conflict is the primary strate- demonstrated that Egypt appreciates U.S. and its proxies. SCOBEY gic political goal for the Egyptians. Over support but prefers it more often than the years, the Egyptians have functioned not to be quiet and helpful, not public well as an intermediary (e.g. between Cable 7201 Arafat and the Israelis), a role that effec- tively balanced Egypt’s moderate stance S E C R E T CAIRO 000119 NOFORN FOR alongside its regional image as standard- SENATOR MITCHELL FROM THE bearer for the Palestinian cause. With the AMBASSADOR ALSO PASS TO NSC FOR EDITORS emergence of direct Israeli-Palestinian SHAPIRO AND PASCUAL; NEA FOR FO E.O. Alexander Cockburn Authority communication, followed by 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019 TAGS: PREL, Jeffrey St. Clair the Hamas coup of Gaza in June, 2007, PGOV, KPAL, IS, EG SUBJECT: the Egyptian role shifted to a focus on in- ASSISTANT EDITOR SCENESETTER FOR SPECIAL ENVOY tra-Palestinian reconciliation and estab- Alevtina Rea MITCHELL’S JANUARY 26 VISIT TO CAIRO lishment of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire. REF: CAIRO 118 (ASSESSMENT POST- BUSINESS Egyptians have welcomed signs from the GAZA) Classified By: Ambassador Becky Grant Obama Administration that the U.S. in- Margaret Scobey Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D) Deva Wheeler tends to engage early; Foreign Minister 1. (S/NF) Summary and Introduction: Abul Ghayt warned a few days ago that DESIGN Senator Mitchell, welcome to Egypt. Your “others” (Turkey, the French, Qatar to Tiffany Wardle visit will be, we hope, the first in a regular name a few) are actively jockeying to ex- process of dialogue and consultation COUNSELOR pand their role in brokering peace during with senior Egyptians on what they con- Ben Sonnenberg a period of perceived U.S. inattention. sider to be the primary regional political 1937-2010 The Egyptians have fretted, issue -- the Arab-Israeli conflict, particu- however,about the possibility that re- larly the Palestinian track that has gener- CounterPunch newed U.S. engagement would devolve ated violence and tension that threatens P.O. Box 228 into endless “process.” They support di- Egypt’s national security interests. 2. (S/ Petrolia, CA 95558 rect Palestinian-Israeli negotiations but NF) We have requested meetings with 1-800-840-3683 want to see the U.S. using its influence President Mubarak, EGIS Chief General [email protected] with the parties more effectively. 4. (S/NF) Omar Soliman, Foreign Minister Ahmed www.counterpunch.org EGIS Chief Omar Soliman, 72 years old Aboul Gheit and Arab League Secretary and in his position since 1993, is the de All rights reserved. General Amre Moussa. The Egyptian lead-

2 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert facto national security advisor, and holds also increase. 6. (S/NF) The Egyptians are closely with Egypt as we consider any responsibility for the Israeli-Palestinian also in the midst of a serious intra-Arab overtures towards Syria. ------account, including Egyptian efforts to ne- rift, exposed by the recent Gaza crisis (for Regional Issues ------8. (S/NF) On gotiate the release of IDF Corporal Gilad a full analysis see reftel). The Israeli mili- Iraq, although President Mubarak re- Shalit. Soliman, a retired general and vet- tary operation, and enormous regional mains deeply suspicious that Nuri Al eran of the 1973 war, is a pragmatist with public outcry, appears to have buoyed Maliki answers to Tehran, other GOE offi- an extremely sharp analytical mind. He Hamas’ popularity for the moment. cials have expressed increasing confi- currently is hosting a series of meetings Egypt, with support primarily from Saudi dence that Maliki, and Iraq generally, has with Israeli MOD Official Amos Gilad and Arabia, has pushed back against Arab turned a corner and may avoid civil war. Hamas representatives (from both Gaza and other states that wish to give greater Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit recently and Damascus), with the goal of cement- political recognition to Hamas, but the completed a successful trip to Baghdad ing the new ceasefire and advancing in- fight will likely intensify in the run-up to in October and is moving forward to re- tra-Palestinian reconciliation. Soliman the Arab League Annual Summit set for open the Embassy in Baghdad. On Iran, believes that Palestinian reconciliation is late March in Doha. FM Aboul Gheit, a ca- Egypt is concerned by rising Iranian influ- a prerequisite to any major next step in reer diplomat who has held his position ence in the region, has supported UN Gaza, as neither the Egyptians nor the in- since 2004, recently announced Egypt’s sanctions, and is increasingly active on ternational community can work with intent to hold a ministerial level meeting countering Iran, e.g. in Gaza and to some Hamas as a partner on security, political on Gaza humanitarian assistance as soon extent in Lebanon, working with Saudi or economic reconstruction issues. That as mid-February, something that he Arabia and other Arab states to support said, he has stuggled to find incentives hopes will marginalize efforts from other Lebanese political and territorial sover- for Hamas to cede Gaza back to the PA, Arab states to channel assistance to Gaza eignty. 9. (S/NF) Egypt is a steadfast ally in especially given Hamas’ increasingly via contributions to Hamas. He will likely counter-terrorism efforts, and we main- stout backing from some Arab states (e.g. ask for full USG support of this initiative. tain close cooperation on a broad range Syria and Qatar) as well as Iran. Soliman Arab League Secretary General Amre of security and law enforcement issues. will tell you he understands that Hamas Moussa (in office since 2001) is generally We have a long-standing and productive needs to be “squeezed” and that limiting supportive of Egyptian primacy on the relationship with EGIS and SSIS, the two movement in and out of Gaza supports Palestinian issue and of PA President Egyptian agencies that cover internal and this end, but will urge that you impress Abbas. He has struggled to regain control regional terrorism issues. Through the upon the Israelis the need to maintain of intra-Arab dynamics following the Department of State’s Anti-Terrorism adequate humanitarian inflows to Gaza. Gaza crisis). Your tentatively scheduled The Egyptians will stress the point that visit will give him a needed boost. 7. (S/ that keeping borders open for legitimate NF) Your key meeting however will be Subscription Information trade and forging effective measures with President Mubarak who retains a against smuggling go hand in hand. 5. (S/ firm grip on national security and strate- Subscription information can be found NF) Following his most recent round of gic issues. EGIS Director Soliman and FM at www.counterpunch.org or call discussions with Gilad, Soliman told us Aboul Gheit take their marching orders toll-free inside the U.S. that he and Gilad generally agreed that from Mubarak and are effective to the ex- 1-800-840-3683 they were “back where they started” in tent that Mubarak and Egypt are still seen Published twice monthly the fall -- only perhaps Hamas has gotten both in the region and on the interna- except July and August, meaner. Together they inted to work to tional stage as indispensible partners in 22 issues a year. extend the calm and promote Palestiian seeking Arab-Israeli peace. With Iran 1 - year hardcopy edition $45 reconciliation. As long as the calm lasts, making inroads into the Arab world via 2 - year hardcopy edition $80 srael will proceed, as before, with limited Syria, Hezbollah, Qatar, and now Hamas, 1 - year email edition $35 bordr openings for legitimate goods. On Mubarak will be most open to a USG ap- 2 - year email edition $65 counter-smugling, Soliman said he told proach that puts our efforts on the Israeli- 1 - year email & hardcopy edition $50 Gilad that Egypt has ade new “arrange- Palestinian conflict in that broader re- ments for border security” that ill involve gional context. Reconciliation between 1 - year institutions/supporters $100 EGIS, State Security and DMI. He pldged Fatah and Hamas may be the critical 1 - year student/low income $35 to Gilad that Egypt would exert maxi- piece to reestablishing a meaningful path Renew by telephone, mail, or on our mum effor to control borders including towards the objective of a two-state solu- website. For mailed orders please areas of the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba. The tion, but in our view that is unlikely to include name, address and email Egyptian Prime Minister will address take place without broader reconciliation address with payment, or call 1-800- compensation for Sinai Bedouin to allevi- within Arab ranks. Mubarak’s feelings to- 840-3683 or 1-707-629 3683. Add ate the impact of cutting off smuggling. wards Syria and Bashar al-Assad are $17.50 per year for subscriptions mailed He said Egypt would accept technology scathing, but at the same time we believe outside the U.S.A. from the U.S., Germany and Italy and that he will understand that prying Syria away Make checks or money orders payable to: Egypt would arrest owners of the tunnels. from Iran and establishing a Syrian-Israeli CounterPunch Gilad and Soliman reportedly agreed that track may be a strategic necessity. You Business Office Hamas knows its resupply challenges will will want to seek his views on this issue PO Box 228, Petrolia, CA 95558 grow but that their efforts to succeed will and assure him that the U.S. will consult

3 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert

Assistance program, we are working with high levels of poverty and unemploy- is durable but stuck in a force-on-force SSIS to establish an anti-terror investiga- ment, and endemic corruption. The ef- mindset. 2. (S/NF) Summary continued: tive unit, and also are in the beginning fects of the global financial crisis on Aboul Gheit is smart, urbane, with a ten- stages of a USG-funded community po- Egypt may not be as severe as elsewhere, dency to lecture and to avoid discussing licing program that will include needed as Egyptian banks operate very conserva- Egyptian failings with all-purpose re- human rights training. ------tively and have been spared involvement course to Egyptian sovereign pride. ------Internal Politics and Economics ------in risky financial products. The informal However, because this is his first meeting ------10. (C) Our fundamen- economy also provides a certain degree with you and it is in Washington, he may tal political reform goal in Egypt remains of resiliency to the economic picture. be more inclined to listen. You should democratic transformation, including the Nevertheless, as the economic crisis thank him for Egypt’s continuing regional expansion of political freedom and plu- worsens, Egypt remains vulnerable as ex- leadership, in particular regarding their ralism, respect for human rights, and a ports, Suez canal revenues, tourism, and efforts to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza, stable and legitimate transition to the remittances will reflect global trends. and press him for Egypt to continue to post-Mubarak era. Egyptian democracy SCOBEY NNNN End Cable Text use their influence and good offices to and human rights efforts, however, are achieve a permanent solution to intra- being suffocated, and Mubarak remains Palestinian infighting and conflict. You Cable 7304 skeptical of our role in democracy pro- should also stress the need for Egypt to motion, lecturing us that any efforts to more effectively insure that Hamas can- S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO open up will result in empowering the not rearm via smuggling across -- or tun- 000231 NOFORN SIPDIS FOR THE (which currently neling under -- the border with Gaza. SECRETARY FROM THE AMBASSADOR holds 86 seats in Egypt’s parliament). Aboul Gheit will press for your atten- E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2019 TAGS: PREL, Mubarak now makes scant public pre- dance at the March 2 Gaza Donors KPAL, EG, IS, QA, IR, SY SUBJECT: tense of advancing a vision for democrat- Conference in Cairo, and may complain SCENESETTER FOR REQUESTED ic change. An ongoing challenge remains about unhelpful Qatari and Syrian behav- EGYPTIAN FM ABOUL GHEIT MEETING balancing our security interests with our ior. He will also want to explore US inten- WITH THE SECRETARY Classified By: democracy promotion efforts. 11. (S/NF) tions towards Iran; President Mubarak Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reasons Mubarak, who is now 80, is in solid told Senator Mitchell during his recent 1.4 (b) and (d). ------Summary ------1. (S/ health, notwithstanding a hearing deficit visit here that he did not oppose our talk- NF) Madame Secretary, Foreign Minister in his left ear. The next presidential elec- ing with the Iranians, as long as “you Aboul Gheit has been looking forward to tions are scheduled for 2011, and if don’t believe a word they say.” End sum- meeting you since your nomination was Mubarak is still alive it is likely he will run mary. ------Respect and first announced. The Egyptian leadership, again, and, inevitably, win. Despite inces- Appreciation ------3. (S/NF) including President Mubarak, are encour- sant whispered discussions, no one in In terms of regional affairs, Special Middle aged by the Administration’s immediate Egypt has any certainty about who will East Envoy Senator George Mitchell attention to the Middle East and your eventually succeed Mubarak, nor how struck the right chord during his recent and the President’s early outreach to the succession will happen. Mubarak visit to Cairo when he told President them. Overall, the Egyptians believe they himself seems to be trusting to God and Mubarak that he was here to “listen and did not receive fair treatment from the the inertia of the military and civilian se- hear your advice.” The Egyptians have previous Administration and hope to see curity services to ensure an orderly transi- long felt that, at best, we take them for improvements. Aboul Gheit likely will ex- tion. The most likely contenders for next granted; and at worst, we deliberately ig- plain Egypt’s “soft power”--its ability to president are presidential son Gamal nore their advice while trying to force our influence regional events without benefit Mubarak (whose profile is ever-increasing point of view on them. You may wish to of deep pockets. He likely will focus more at the ruling party), EGIS chief Omar thank Aboul Gheit for the vital role Egypt on the strategic challenges of the region- Soliman, dark horse Arab League played in bringing about a ceasefire in -the peace process and Iran--but may Secretary-General Amre Moussa, another Gaza, and its efforts at making it last. You also address some pending bilateral mat- old-guard regime insider, or an as-yet un- should ask him what the current state of ters. He may ask for your support for known military officer. 12. (C) Economic play is between Hamas and Fatah and Egypt to be part of an expanded G8 or reform has been a success story, al- have him describe Egypt’s vision of the G20 and press the candidacy of Egyptian though Egypt still suffers from wide- future for the Palestinians, both among Culture Minister Farouq Hosny for spread and so far irremediable poverty their factions, and vis a vis Israel. Note: Director General of UNESCO. He may not affecting upwards of 35-40% of the popu- Although the Egyptians will react well to raise human rights (specifically Ayman lation. Reforms in trade and tax policy, fi- overtures of respect and appreciation, Nour), political reform, or democratiza- nancial reform, privatization and in- Egypt is very often a stubborn and recal- tion; but you should. Aboul Gheit will creased transparency have led to 7% citrant ally. In addition, Egypt’s self-per- want to discuss Gaza, including smug- economic growth in the last fiscal year. ception as the “indispensable Arab state” gling and counter-tunneling; Iran; and Foreign investment increased from is contingent on Egyptian effectiveness the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. On around $3 billion in 2005 to $11 billion in on regional issues, including Sudan, Iraq and counter-terrorism, we and the the last year, mostly in the petroleum sec- Lebanon, and Iraq. ------Egyptians see largely eye-to-eye; intelli- tor. Despite this success, significant prob------Egypt and the Israel-Palestinian gence cooperation is close and effective; lems remain, including 20% inflation, Conflict ------4. and our military-to-military relationship

4 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert

(S/NF) Although Aboul Gheit was never have stopped complaining and started opening the Gaza borders to trade, there- enthusiastic about the Annapolis Peace acting. Egypt has increased efforts to by reducing economic incentives to process, resolution of the Israeli- counter arms smuggling by accelerating smuggle. ------The Palestinian conflict remains the primary its $23 million FMF-funded tunnel detec- March 2 Gaza Donors Conference ------strategic political goal for the Egyptians. tion program along the Egypt-Gaza bor------9. (S/NF) President They are proud of their role as intermedi- der and requesting U.S. support to pur- Mubarak told Senator Mitchell that he ary, well aware that they are perhaps the chase four backscatter X-Ray machines to CAIRO 00000231 003 OF 004 wanted to only player that can talk with us, the scan vehicles entering the Sinai for weap- personally invite you to the March 2 Gaza Israelis, and all Palestinian factions. ons and explosives (note Aboul Ghait Donors Conference in Cairo. Aboul Gheit Mubarak hates Hamas, and considers may not be of this EGIS-originated re- will press hard for you to accept this invi- them the same as Egypt’s own Muslim quest). Egypt also continues to cooperate tation. He is keen to keep up the momen- Brotherhood, which he sees as his own with Israel, especially via intelligence tum on Gaza reconstruction and for most dangerous political threat. Since sharing, to prevent militants from Hamas Egypt to be seen as taking the lead in the CAIRO 00000231 002 OF 004 June and other extremist organizations from helping the Palestinians. It is very impor- 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza, the crossing the Gaza border, and on thwart- tant to him that this conference be at the Egyptians, under the leadership of intelli- ing militant activity in Egypt. Egyptian ef- ministerial level, and he will be disap- gence chief Omar Soliman (the de facto forts are all justified under President pointed if you are unable to accept. ------national security advisor with direct re- Mubarak’s pledge that Egypt with “pro------Iraq and Iran ------10. (S/NF) sponsibility for the Israeli-Palestinian ac- tect its borders.” 7. (S/NF) Egypt will not President Mubarak enjoys recounting for count) have shifted their focus to intra- take any action that could be perceived visiting members of Congress how he Palestinian reconciliation and as collaboration in Israel’s siege of Gaza, warned former President Bush against in- establishment of the Hamas-Israel cease- and they have been hyper-sensitive to vading Iraq, ending with, “I told you so!” fire. Soliman brokered a half-year-long any suggestion that foreigners are assist- and a wag of his finger. In addition, there truce last year, which Hamas broke in ing them or overseeing their efforts to are Egyptian misgivings about Nuri Al- December, leading to the Israeli invasion counter smuggling. Aboul Gheit publicly Maliki and Shia majority rule in Iraq. of Gaza. He has recently re-started those distanced Egypt from our January MOU Egypt therefore will need additional efforts, with the goal of getting Hamas to with Israel to combat arms smuggling prodding to continue to take steps to agree to a year-long ceasefire, which into Gaza, although he knew about it in help rehabilitate Iraq into the greater should give the Egyptians space to bring advance and consulted with Secretary Arab world. You should ask Aboul Gheit about their political goal of Palestinian Rice and me about its contents. The when he plans to fully open the Egyptian reconciliation under a technocratic, non- Egyptians do not want to be stuck hold- embassy in Baghdad and exchange ac- partisan government headed by ing the Gaza bag, and must be able to credited ambassadors with Iraq (the first President Mahmoud Abbas. ------point the finger of blame at Israel for the Egyptian ambassador to post-Saddam Gaza and Tunnels ------5. (S/NF) plight of the Palestinians. At the same Iraq was assassinated). As for Iran, Smuggling through the Sinai Peninsula time, Egypt has withstood scathing and Mubarak has a visceral hatred for the and into Gaza is an old and complicated widespread criticism in the Arab world Islamic Republic, referring repeatedly to problem for Egypt. Egypt views a well- for refusing to open the Rafah border Iranians as “liars,” and denouncing them armed and powerful Hamas as a national crossing to supply Gaza. Even during the for seeking to destabilize Egypt and the security threat, a point driven home in height of the December fighting, the region. He sees the Syrians and Qataris as dramatic fashion by the January 2008 Egyptians only sent medicine and medi- sycophants to Tehran and liars them- border breach when Hamas bulldozed cal supplies through the Rafah border; all selves. There is no doubt that Egypt sees the old border fence and more than half a other humanitarian goods went through Iran and its greatest long-term threat, million Palestinians poured into Egypt, the Israeli crossing at Kerem Shalom. both as it develops a nuclear capability unchecked and hungry. Since the closure They likewise insist that Rafah will only and as it seeks to export its “Shia revolu- of the Egypt-Gaza border following the reopen to handle Gazan travellers when tion.” Nonetheless, Mubarak told Mitchell June 2007 Gaza takeover by Hamas, most the Gazan side is under PA control with pointedly that he did not oppose the U.S. smuggling of consumer goods and EU observers according to the 2005 AMA. speaking to the Iranians, as long as we weapons has gone underground. The 8. (S/NF) Ultimately, Egypt believes that did not “believe a single word they say.” narrow corridor between Egypt and Gaza the only realistic and viable solution to Aboul Gheit will be keen to hear your de- is as honey-combed with subterranean erode Hamas’ power and stop arms scription of U.S. intentions towards Iran. passageways as a gigantic ant colony. 6. smuggling is the return of the Palestinian In his conversation with Senator Mitchell, (S/NF) Although it is not directly in Aboul Authority to Gaza and the opening of Aboul Gheit carefully noting he was Gheit’s bailiwick, belonging more to the Gaza’s border to legitimate trade. While in speaking personally, expressed more in- security and intelligence forces, nonethe- the short term we can best assist the terest into bringing the Syrians into ne- less the issue of tunnels and rearming Egyptians with technical know-how and gotiations again; President Mubarak was Hamas is the subject of intense scrutiny training, long term counter smuggling not enthusiastic about dealing with the (by Israel and the Congress), and sensitiv- success will depend on reducing the fi- Syrians at this time. ------ity (by the Egyptians). Long criticized by nancial incentives to smuggling by pro- U.S. Assistance to Egypt ------Israel for “not doing enough” to halt arms viding the Sinai Bedouin with legitimate - 11. (S/NF) The greatest Egyptian outrage smuggling via tunnels, the Egyptians economic opportunities and by regularly a year ago -- Congressional conditioning

5 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert of $100 million of U.S. assistance to Egypt in self-imposed exile in the U.S. because NEA Acting Assistant Secretary Feltman -- may now be moot, according to our lat- of spurious law suits brought against him Egypt Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit est understanding of the state of play for allegedly defaming Egypt. In a nega- Egyptian Ambassador to the U.S. Sameh with the FY2009 appropriations lan- tive development in late January, Egypt,s Shoukry 4. (S) SUMMARY. Secretary guage. Beyond the issue of conditioning, Attorney General-equivalent took action Clinton and Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit the Egyptians resent the U.S. unilateral to advance the only criminal case pend- met on February 12 and engaged in a decision to cut ESF in half, from $415 mil- ing against Ibrahim. You should press warm discussion on the need to strength lion in FY-08 to $200 million in FY-09, a Aboul Gheit hard on Nour and Ibrahim, the U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relationship. level which the Egyptians find embarrass- and also urge the GOE to stop arresting The FM was delighted when the ing, not because they need the money other less prominent political activists. Secretary accepted Egypt?s invitation to (they say), but because it shows our di- Nour’s health is bad and he has served attend the upcoming March 2 Donor?s minished view of the value of our rela- more than half his sentence; he deserves Conference in Cairo and urged a presi- tionship. In my view, it is important to the a humanitarian pardon. You may wish to dential visit in Cairo or Washington soon. U.S. to continue an ESF program aimed at lay down a marker for a future discussion Regarding peace efforts in the region, health, education, and poverty eradica- on democratization and human rights Aboul Gheit said the United States had tion to demonstrate concern for the concerns. You might note that although only two options, either pick up the Egyptian people as opposed to a strictly you and the President want to improve Clinton Parameters of December 2000 or military assistance program. Egypt has the relationship, Egypt could take some the Annapolis process from where it left also been unhappy with the use of these steps to remove these very volatile issues off. On Iran and Syria, Aboul Gheit urged funds to support democracy in Egypt. It from the agenda. ------Farouq Hosny caution in any attempt to engage both would be useful if you could urge that ------13. (S/NF) Egypt has mounted a countries. The FM urged the United Egypt accept the FY 2009 levels so that full-scale international campaign to sup- States not to actively oppose the candi- we can proceed to program funds to ben- port the candidacy of Culture Minister dacy of Hosny Farouk for UNESCO efit Egypt, while promising to engage in a Farouq Hosny for Director General of Director General. Both leaders agreed on serious review of the conflicts that exist UNESCO. The Arab League and the the need to get the U.S.-Egyptian bilater- and a desire to resolve them as soon as African Union have already publicly stat- al assistance program back on track. END possible. 12. (S/NF) Concerning military ed their commitment to Hosny, and the SUMMARY. ------EMBRACING assistance, the Egyptian political and mil- Egyptians believe they also have the sup- CHANGE ------5.(S) Aboul Gheit itary leadership feel that they have been port of several Europeans, notably the opened the meeting by conveying warm “short changed” by our holding to an French. Aboul Gheit will also seek US sup- greetings from President Mubarak. He FMF level of $1.3 billion, (the same level port -- or, at least, not to actively oppose was effusive in his praise of Secretary for 30 years despite inflation), and which -- the candidacy of Farouq Hosny as the Clinton and expressed hope that a “very they contrast with increases to our mili- next Director General of UNESCO. The difficult” eight-year period in the relation- tary assistance to Israel. Finally, Egypt U.S. informed him last year that we could ship was over. He noted that Egypt is seeks a higher profile in international fi- not support the candidacy and urged “eager to embrace change.” The Secretary nancial circles (Finance Minister Youssef Egypt to put forward another name. emphasized the United States strong, Boutros Ghali was recently named Abould Gheit will argue Hosny’s merits continuing commitment to work with Chairman of the IMF’s policy-setting com- for facing down the Islamic extremists Egypt. ------GAZA DONORS mittee, the IMFC, the first from a develop- who want to narrow the space in Egypt CONFERENCE ------6. (S) ing country), and Aboul Gheit is likely to for artistic expression. U.S. objections Aboul Gheit then turned to the March 2 ask for your support to include Egypt in have been to statements Hosny has Gaza Donors conference, stating that expanded G8 and G20 fora. ------made that “Israel had no culture. . .it stole President Sarkozy and PM Berlusconi ------Ayman Nour and Saad Eddin cultural ideas from others and claimed would attend. Noting that it would be an Ibrahim ------13. (S/ them as its own” and other objectionable “excellent follow up” to the Mitchell visit, NF) Egypt’s political leadership considers remarks. If we plan to derail the Hosny he asked the Secretary to attend the con- our public chastisement of their treat- candidacy, we must provide a credible al- ference and for the United States to be a ment of jailed former opposition Al Ghad ternate, preferably an Arab and/or co-sponsor. The Secretary confirmed her party leader Ayman Nour as interfering Muslim. SCOBEY attendance and underscored that the with internal affairs and infringement on United States wanted to work closely national sovereignty. Mubarak takes this with Egypt on the framework for the con- Cable 7360 issue personally, and it makes him seethe ference in order to ensure a positive out- when we raise it, particularly in public. come. The Secretary stated that the S E C R E T STATE 014421 E.O. 12958: Aboul Gheit’s view is that we have made United States wanted the conference to DECL: 02/12/2019 TAGS: EG, IS, IR, MEPP, Ayman Nour a freedom martyr, and a send a message about Egypt’s leadership UN SUBJECT: (U) Secretary Clinton?s damaging (and CAIRO 00000231 004 OF and to make clear to others in the region February 12, 2009, Meeting with Egyptian 004 distorting) prism through which we the importance we attach to role Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit 1. Classified view our relationship with Egypt. Much and our support for like-minded states by NEA Acting Assistant Secretary Jeff the same can be said about Saad Eddin that share Egypts strategic approach. ----- Feltman for reasons: 1.4 (b) & (d). 2. (U) Ibrahim, the outspoken political science ------THE UNITED STATES IS February 12, 2009; 13:00 p.m.; Washington, professor and democracy activist who is BACK ------7.(S) DC. 3. (U) Participants: U.S. The Secretary

6 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert

Delighted with the Secretarys response, ASSISTANCE ------10. (S) Aboul Gheit ------IRANIAN an effusive Aboul Gheit urged the raised the issue of U.S. assistance to INFLUENCE AND ARAB POLITICAL Secretary to deliver a speech at the con- Egypt, asking that the USG “re-open the DISARRAY ------ference and assured that she would be Egypt program.” “Decisions were taken ---- 13. (S) In response to the Secretary’s received by President Mubarak. He said unilaterally,” he said, which is not how al- questions about Palestinian reconcilia- that although Sarkozy and Berlusconi lies and friends should deal with one an- tion efforts, Aboul Gheit spoke of a “re- would be there at the same time, that the other. While Egypt had remained “polite,” gion in the midst of a war” -- a cold war attention should be on the Secretary, to the FM said that Egyptians had “distanced that often turns hot and then back to symbolize the return of the United States themselves” in this regard. He urged that cold. This is largely due to the fact that to the Israeli-Arab negotiations. Foreign the United States and Egypt work to Iran wants to extend its influence across Minister Aboul Gheit noted that the mend this aspect of the relationship. The the region and to “collect cards” to use in Europeans had begun to assert them- Secretary expressed understanding, ac- bargaining over its nuclear program. Iran selves during the U.S. transition period; knowledging that there had been both has IRGC forces “everywhere.” Iran uses the Secretarys presence in Cairo would cuts in the program and programmatic Hamas and Hizballah. “Sadly,” even some clearly convey the message that “the decisions made by the United States. “I’m Arabs are collaborating with Iran, such as United States is back.” ------going to look into this,” she promised. Syria and Qatar. Imagine, he noted, Qatar ------PROPOSED MEETINGS She noted that Congress is also a factor in is a “principality” of only “60,000 maybe AT FRINGE OF DONOR CONFERENCE ------the assistance relationship, and under- 100,000 people, and it is creating havoc ------8.(S) In scored the need to examine how to “get in the region.” He noted that there are terms of other meetings in Cairo, Aboul Members of Congress to see you as a more Egyptian guest workers in Qatar Gheit suggested that the Secretary meet friend and ally.” ------than Qatari citizens. Iran also promoted with the GCC+3. He also suggested a PALESTINIAN RECONCILIATION ------“two wars in two years,” he said, referring GCC+3 meeting with the P5+1, noting ------11. (S) Aboul Gheit said that to Gaza and the 2006 Lebanon war. Iran is that this had been a very useful gather- Omar Soliman had reported to him that a destabilizing the region and must be ing to send signals to Iran and others. longer-term calming should be ready for confronted everywhere. 14. (S) Aboul Aboul Gheit proposed that if the announcement on February 17 or 18. The Gheit urged that the United States, Secretary were to arrive in the afternoon Israelis are now informed. On February should it decide to engage, do so “with of March 1, that she could do one of these 22, Egypt will host all of the Palestinian eyes wide open.” He predicted that the sessions then, with the following session factions in Cairo to launch a reconcilia- USG would discover by the end of 2009 the following evening. The Secretary re- tion process that “could last days or that the Iranians did not deliver anything sponded positively but noncommittally, weeks, if not months.” The “quiet” and the and that the Iranians “express what they saying that she would have to check her reconciliation process should allow the don’t believe.” The Secretary emphasized schedule. “We want to send a signal that PA, Abu Mazen, and Salam Fayyad “some that, indeed, the USG was going into this we know who our friends are,” the relief” from the threats of illegitimacy, as process well aware of the difficulties. But Secretary said. ------a start to restoring their authority. The any engagement should demonstrate PROPOSED PRESIDENTIAL VISIT ------Secretary urged that we be kept in- clearly that Iran either can deliver or that ------9.(S) Aboul Gheit asked when formed of how this is progressing, as we it won’t deliver. At this point, people “we can allow our two presidents to needed to understand what the condi- question whether the United States is to meet,” and encouraged that it be soon. tions for Palestinian reconciliation will be. blame for Iranian intransigence, but en- He conveyed that President Mubarak 12. (S) Responding to the Secretary’s com- gagement should show exactly where would be willing to travel to the United ments about “lost ground and lost time,” the problems are. 15. (S) Aboul Gheit States or to host the President in Cairo, Aboul Gheit noted that, in terms of the added that that the threat of sanctions is adding, You decide.” He noted that given Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the not sufficient, and the threat of war con- the President’s promise to deliver a United States had only two options: ei- tradicts the message the Administration speech in a Muslim country, Cairo would ther pick up the Clinton Parameters of is trying to send to the Muslim world. So be the perfect venue, given that it is the December 2000, or pick up the Annapolis he suggested being “very, very firm” in seat of al-Azhar University and the center process from where it left off. “There is no any talks with the Iranians. He mused of the Arab world. Other countries like third way.” The Secretary asked about the about whether, ultimately, the United Morocco or Indonesia, while important, Arab League Initiative. It is still there, the States should agree to enrichment on he noted, are peripheral to the real Arab FM acknowledged, but the Israelis never Iranian soil that is heavily patrolled by heartland, which is what the President picked up on it, with the issue of refugees comprehensive international supervision. hopes to reach. In terms of audience, the being more difficult than the issue of ------SYRIA ------16. (S) On Syria, Aboul FM said “I can provide 20,000 people” in a Jerusalem. Israel cannot accept the for- Gheit noted that Egypt is aware that the secure venue, listening to the Presidents mulation on refugees, he said, but maybe United States wants to try a new ap- message. The Secretary agreed to convey it can be set aside temporarily. He em- proach. He said that Egypt is planning an the invitation. She cautioned that phasized the need for Egypt to under- effort to reconcile Arab differences President Obama is currently constrained stand what the United States was doing among ourselves. He cautioned that the by the work needed to address the eco- regarding negotiations, referring to the USG should be cautious with Syria, not- nomic challenges, “but I will faithfully failed 2000 Camp David summit when ing that the Syrians seek to escape the represent your arguments.” ------“we didn’t know what was happening.” --- Special Tribunal for Lebanon, to obtain

7 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert assurances about the future of their re- included in an expanded G-20 and that cized the GOE as “unaccountable” to the gime, seek a return of the Golan Heights, the group of five “outreach” countries to population and asserted that the GOE is and want acknowledgement of their pre- the G-8 be expanded to include Egypt on focusing on preventing a wider Israeli- dominance in Lebanon. The Syrians a permanent basis. The Secretary said Hamas war, instead of “leading the region should be “forced to pay a price” for any that she would look into the issue. toward peace,” as it did in the past. 3. (C) of these, and not be given any of these CLINTON Kassem, founder of the leading inde- up front. He concluded by urging the pendent newspaper “Al-Masry Al-Youm,” United States to tell the Syrians to “stay said that press freedom has improved in Cable 7395 away from the Iranians.” ------the past five to six years, although the UNHELPFUL QATAR ------17. (S) GOE would like to roll back this political C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF Finally, Aboul Gheit said, “there is Qatar.” space. The independent print press has 02 CAIRO 000330 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA Qatar is financing “everything.” Qatar an increased market share of about 25 AND DRL/NESCA NSC FOR PASCUAL AND claims to have frozen the Arab peace percent, and satellite television channels KUCHTA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL: plan and to have ordered the Arab states broadcast independent content. Kassem 02/22/2029 TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, to cut off ties to Israel. What is motivating speculated that the pro-government KDEM, KPAL, IS, EG SUBJECT: ACTIVISTS Qatar is an image of “the great state of press will eventually disappear because it DISCUSS WAY FORWARD ON REFORM Qatar” -- a Qatar that hosts the Lebanese is unpopular and only sustained by gov- WITH SENATOR LIEBERMAN REF: 08 factions for a Doha accord, the Sudanese ernment subsidies. He plans to launch CAIRO 2297 Classified By: Ambassador for another Doha accord, the various his own independent paper in the third Margaret Scobey for reason 1.4 (d). 1. (C) Arabs to respond to the Gaza crisis, and quarter of 2009. (Note: Kassem left “Al- Summary: On February 18, civil society so on. The FM opined that the only coun- Masry Al-Youm” in late 2006. End note.) activists and an opposition party leader try that can check Qatar’s behavior is the ------Human Rights discussed democratic reform in Egypt United States. The United States needs to Training for Students ------with Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), say, you are troubling our allies and con------4. (C) Professor Al-Mashat criticized the Ambassador and the DCM. President fusing our policies.” The FM suggested the GOE’s argument that it cannot move of the Egyptian Organization for Human that the Emir and the Prime Minister quickly on democratic reform. He assert- Rights Hisham Kassem said that over the need to feel that “Washington is cold.” ---- ed that the “regime never gave people a next 15 years Egypt needs to rebuild its ------HOSNY CANDIDACY chance to move forward,” and created a institutions, and is not ready for “instant FOR UNESCO DG ------competition between the ruling National democracy.” Professor Abdel-Monem 18. (S) Aboul Gheit raised the issue of Democratic Party (NDP) and the MB, in- Al-Mashat of Cairo University described Egyptian Cultural Minister Farouk Hosny’s stead of allowing other parties to devel- the human rights training he is conduct- UNESCO DG candidacy. “I hope, I hope, I op. He described the 2005 parliamentary ing for student leaders. Director of the hope, if you can’t support him, that you vote for the MB as a protest vote against Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies won’t oppose him.” The Secretary said the regime. Al-Mashat opined that the Bahey Al-Din Hassan claimed that as that we had real concerns about Hosnys Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuels backing human rights movements grew through- statements. Moreover, as we ask the for Islamists throughout the region, and out the region in 2008, Arab regimes Israelis to take a lot of hard decisions re- that the MB gained more support as a re- pushed back and targeted secular activ- garding negotiations and facts on the sult of the Gaza War. Al-Mashat described ists. Democratic Front opposition party ground, we do not need additional prob- the human rights training he is conduct- president Osama Al-Ghazali Harb opti- lems. Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit said ing for student leaders as a way to teach mistically predicted that if the GOE al- that perhaps he could solve the issue the next generation about democracy. lowed secular parties a two-to-three year with the Israelis, by promising them that, He also noted the progress he is making period to develop, these parties would if Hosny is elected, his first visit as with civic education training for Imams, outperform the Muslim Brotherhood UNESCO DG would be to Israel. The and political training for women candi- (MB) in elections. End summary. ------Secretary responded that Israeli concur- dates for the next local council elections. ------GOE Not Ready rence could help, but we still had our 5. (C) Bahey Al-Din Hassan noted that for “Instant Democracy” ------own concerns. She recommended that his institute’s 2008 human rights report ------2. (C) Hisham Kassem said Egypt seek other candidates. ------describes a sharp regional deterioration that Egypt is not ready for “instant de------PROPOSED FRENCH SUMMIT because of a lack of political will from mocracy,” but needs to rebuild its civic IN APRIL ------19. (S) the Arab regimes. Hassan characterized institutions over the next 15 years. He Aboul Gheit and the Secretary briefly human rights movements as growing called for establishing an independent conferred on the idea of a French-hosted throughout the region, but he noted that judiciary, a credible independent news summit in early April, and agreed that it governments feel threatened and are media, a more effective parliament and was premature to commit to such a step. pushing back. The report asserts that in a stronger prime minister. Policy is made The Secretary noted that the Israeli politi- 2008 Arab regimes focused on punish- in Mubarak’s office, he claimed, and cal calendar made the timing especially ing secular activists, such as bloggers and only implemented by the prime min- awkward. ------independent journalists, who were the ister. Kassem characterized the MB as EGYPTS PUSH FOR INCLUSION IN G-8/G- main proponents for democratic reform. bereft of grass-roots support, and as an 20 ------20.(C) According to the report, the majority of organization that has tried and failed to Aboul Gheit made a pitch for Egypt to be political detainees in the region (especial- gain power for the past 80 years. He criti-

8 feb. 1-15, 2011 Special insert ly in Syria and Tunisia) in 2008 were secu- the relationship. Former presidential can- that the U.S. wants to work through our lar, not Islamist. (Note: The majority of didate and leader of the opposition Al differences with Egypt. Egyptians ideally Egyptian political detainees in 2008 were Ghad political party Ayman Nour was re- seek a return to the FY2008 level of $415 Islamists. End note). ------leased from prison on February 18 for million believing it reflects the impor------Secular Parties Need Space to medical reasons; the Egyptians know that tance of the relationship, but they may Develop CAIRO 00000330 002 OF 002 ----- this pleased us, and have asked that you accept a more general assurance that the ------6. (C) Democratic not raise it in your meetings. Also, the U.S. will look for ways to compensate Front opposition party president Osama Egyptians are expecting an invitation for Egypt in other ways. Mubarak himself will Al-Ghazali Harb characterized the GOE as President Mubarak to visit Washington. 2. not raise this with you as he holds himself “undemocratic, corrupt and authoritar- (S/NF) Summary continued: Regionally, above such discussions of money. ian.” He said that the regime, not the MB, the Egyptians will want to discuss the sit- However, if you are ready to address this is the “biggest problem” facing Egypt. uation in Gaza, including smuggling and issue, you should ask President Mubarak According to Harb, authoritarian regimes counter-tunneling; the Israeli-Palestinian to accept the FY2009 level and to instruct such the GOE can crush any forms of re- peace process; and the Syria-Iran-Qatar his government to work with ours on de- sistance other than Islamist movements. axis. President Mubarak may share with veloping a mutually acceptable assis- He predicted that following a two-to- you his efforts to promote Arab reconcili- tance program that will that will benefit three year transitional period allowing ation in advance of the Arab League the Egyptian people. We do not recom- for secular parties to develop, these par- Summit in late Marge. On Iraq and coun- mend that you commit to an increase in ties would defeat the MB at the polls. 7. ter-terrorism, we and the Egyptians see ESF in FY2010, only that the U.S. would be (U) Codel Lieberman was not able to clear largely eye-to-eye; intelligence coopera- prepared to review all aspects of the pro- this message before departing. SCOBEY tion is close and effective; and our mili- gram for FY-2010 and beyond. ------tary-to-military relationship is strong and ------UNESCO Chairman robust. You should thank Mubarak for Candidate Farouk Hosny ------Cable 7415 Egypt’s continuing regional leadership, in ------4. (C) Egypt continues its de- particular regarding their efforts to bring termined international campaign to sup- S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO about a ceasefire in Gaza, and ask him to port the candidacy of Culture Minister 000347 NOFORN SIPDIS FOR THE continue to use his influence and good Farouk Hosny for Director General of SECRETARY FROM THE AMBASSADOR offices to achieve a permanent solution UNESCO. The Arab League and the E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019 TAGS: PREL, to intra-Palestinian infighting and con- African Union have already publicly stat- KPAL, EAID, MASS, QA, IR, SY, EG, IS, XF flict. You will likely hear Egyptian unhap- ed their commitment to the controversial SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE MARCH piness with the Israeli cabinet’s recent Hosny, and the Egyptians believe they 2 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUBARAK decision to link a ceasefire to the release also have the support of several IN SHARM EL-SHEIK Classified By: of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, a decision Europeans, notably the French. Mubarak Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reasons which in Egyptian views has seriously is unlikely to raise Hosny’s CAIRO 1.4 (b) and (d). ------Summary ------1. (C) compromised their standing in the re- 00000347 002 OF 003 candidacy (al- Madame Secretary, welcome to Egypt gion and their effectiveness as a go be- though Hosny is close to Mubarak’s wife, and the March 2nd Gaza Reconstruction tween on these issues. Mubarak remains Suzanne); Aboul Gheit may raise it with Conference in Sharm El-Sheik. President highly sensitive to suggestions that you again. ------Mubarak is very pleased you are coming Egypt is acting on behalf of either Israel Ayman Nour and Saad Eddin Ibrahim ----- and will meet you at 8:30 a.m. on March 2, or the U.S. vis-a-vis anti-smuggling ef------5. (C) Egypt’s record prior to the start of the conference. He forts; heightened Egyptian efforts to on human rights is nothing to be proud may also host you and the other confer- counter the rearming of Hamas have of, and this will be reflected in our annual ence participants at lunch. Aboul Gheit been taken to protect their own borders Human Rights Report, released on was very upbeat after meeting you in and national security. You should note to February 25. Former presidential candi- Washington, and we can feel a general him, however, that these efforts also con- date Ayman Nour was released on medi- relaxation of Egyptian attitudes towards tribute to our mutual goal of preventing cal parole on February 18. The Egyptians the United States in the weeks since the Hamas from reigniting active conflict have asked that you not mention Nour’s U.S. inauguration. Bilaterally, the future of with Israel. Mubarak and Aboul Gheit will release, even to thank them. The case of the Economic Support Fund (ESF) pro- both be eager to learn more about U.S. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, the outspoken gram is at the top of the Egyptian agen- intentions towards Iran. End summary. --- Egyptian-American democracy activist da, although we do not believe that ------U.S. Assistance to Egypt who is in self-imposed exile in the U.S. President Mubarak will raise it. We assess ------3. (C) In recent conver- because of spurious law suits brought the Egyptians will accept the $200 million sations Egyptian ministers have indicated against him for allegedly defaming Egypt, level for FY2009, but they will want assur- that Egypt is looking for a way forward on remains a high-profile case. If you have ances that the U.S. is prepared to put all ESF and may accept the reality that any one-on-one opportunity with aspects of the program on the table for FY2009 levels cannot be changed. President Mubarak, you may wish to sug- review and that the U.S. will seek increas- However, they want to hear an acknowl- gest that annulling these cases and al- es to the program in FY-2010 and beyond. edgement from the U.S. that the FY2009 lowing him to return to Egypt would also If you are prepared to address this issue decision to set the ESF level at $200 mil- be well-received by the new with President Mubarak it would advance lion was done without consultation and Administration. ------Gaza, our efforts to resolve a major irritant in

9 Hamas, and Tunnels ------6. unfortunately, their ambassador -- hand- from taking any credit for championing (S/NF) The issue of smuggling arms picked by Aboul Gheit -- was assassinat- the Palestinian cause; and they want to through the Sinai Peninsula and into ed in Baghdad shortly after his arrival, move forward on an Arab rapproche- Gaza to rearm Hamas is a particularly and they have been understandably re- ment that strengthens moderates and complicated and vexed one for Egypt. luctant to replace him. Mubarak has also raises pressure on Hamas. They see the Mubarak will stress that “the tunnels and expressed concern about the Shia politi- conference as a place where they can smuggling are just as dangerous for cal leadership in Iraq in general, and shine as leaders, coordinators, and “con- Egypt as they are for Israel.” He may refer about Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in vokers.” They want to demonstrate that to the February 22 terrorist bombing in particular. Nonetheless, Aboul Gheit had they and fellow Arab moderates (Saudi Cairo (which killed a Frenchwoman and a successful visit to Baghdad last October Arabia) -- not upstarts (Qatar) or radicals injured several others, though no and Egypt is moving forward with plans (Syria) -- hold the key to peace and stabil- Americans) as evidence that Egypt suffers top re-open their embassy in Baghdad. ity in the region. However, Egyptian de- greatly from extremist violence; he con- You should ask how those plans are pro- termination to close the deal may cause siders Hamas to be one of the roots of gressing. On Iran, Mubarak will warn you them to take risks with regards to their that violence and will warn you against to beware Ahmedinejad’s perfidy; the goals. End summary. 2. (C) The Egyptians reaching out to them. You should thank Iranians, he will insist, cannot be trusted. have long felt they were the “owners” of him for Egypt’s robust counter-tunneling He will likely want to know if we plan to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. No efforts, as well as for the crucial role Egypt re-open a dialogue with Tehran. Mubarak one else had the access to all key players is playing to bring about a ceasefire in sees Iran as the greatest strategic threat -- Israel, the Palestinians, and the United Gaza, and to achieve Palestinian reconcil- to the region, and considers the Iran- States -- that Egypt did. However, in re- iation. Be prepared to hear his complaint Syria axis to be the most dangerous root cent years, they have been frustrated by against Prime Minister Olmert who, at the of instability. He also blames the Qataris the lack of tangible progress towards a last minute, changed Israel’s require- (especially the Prime Minister) for creat- final settlement, and were somewhat re- ments for a ceasefire and undermined ing a rift within the Arab League between luctant partners in the Annapolis process. Egypt’s efforts to obtain a durable cease- “moderates” (Egypt and Saudi Arabia) Without being able to “deliver” the Israelis fire. You should ask Mubarak his expecta- and “radicals” (Syria). Mubarak will accuse (or the U.S.), the Egyptians risked looking tions for Palestinian reconciliation and the Qataris of using their wealth to pur- ineffective to Arabs at best, and like col- Egypt’s assessment of the Palestinian sit- chase influence in the region, siding with luders at worst, as Palestinian suffering uation. ------the Syrians, and funding Hamas. continued and peace appeared to be as Egypt and the Israel-Palestinian Conflict However, there are indications that the elusive as ever. 3. (C) After the June 2007 ------7. (S/NF) Egyptians are working to heal the rift. Hamas takeover of Gaza, the Egyptian The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains Mubarak recently told Senators Kerry and fear of losing relevance and their lead- the primary strategic political goal for the Lieberman that he and Saudi King ership position in the region grew even Egyptians. They are proud of their role as Abdullah are trying to follow up Kuwaiti greater. They sensed they were losing intermediary, well aware that they are efforts to heal the breach in Arab ranks ground on “the street” to more radical perhaps the only player that can talk with and may reach out to CAIRO 00000347 elements in the Arab League, in particu- us, the Israelis, and both the Palestinian 003 OF 003 Syrian President Assad and lar Syria and its protgs, Hezbollah and Authority and Hamas effectively. the Emir of Qatar in advance of the Arab Hamas; all of which, in Egyptian eyes, are Mubarak hates Hamas, and considers League Summit in late March. SCOBEY nothing more than Iranian proxies. The them a branch of Egypt’s Muslim Egyptians worked hard to isolate and Brotherhood, which he sees as his own weaken Hamas, but in so doing, risked Cable 7423 most dangerous political threat. Since the appearance of siding with Israel as the June 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza, the “jailer” of Gazan Palestinians. 4. (C) C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 the Egyptians have shifted their focus to The Egyptians engineered a six-month OF 02 CAIRO 000358 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ intra-Palestinian reconciliation and estab- “tahdiya” (calming) between Hamas and ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019 TAGS: lishment of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire. Israel that lapsed in December 2008. PREL, EAID, KPAL, EG, IS, XF SUBJECT: Representatives of the Palestinian fac- During this relative calm, Egypt tried to WHAT DOES EGYPT WANT OUT OF THE tions have been coming regularly to forge the disparate Palestinian factions GAZA RECONSTRUCTION CONFERENCE? Cairo to meet under the patronage of the into a non-partisan “technocratic” gov- Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Egyptians in order to agree to a long- ernment in Gaza with whom they -- and Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 1. (C) term ceasefire, which should give the the Israelis -- could work to re-open the Summary: The Egyptians see the March 2 Egyptians space to bring about their stra- border crossings and relieve the pressure Gaza Reconstruction Conference as vali- tegic political goal, Palestinian reconcilia- on the Gazans. The tahdiya fell apart last dation of their role as the regional leader tion under a technocratic, non-partisan December, leading to renewed Hamas in forging peace between the Israelis and government headed by President rocket attacks that provoked the Israeli the Palestinians. Their goals for the con- Mahmoud Abbas. ------invasion of Gaza. Fearing an influx of re- ference are straightforward: they want Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Qatar ------construction aid and money from rivals to be seen as helping the Palestinian ------8. (S/NF) The Egyptians were among Iran and Qatar, the Egyptians offered to people; they want to strengthen the the first countries to reopen their embas- host a donors’ conference. Within the Palestinian Authority (thereby weaken- sy in Baghdad after the liberation of Iraq; context of an economic/pledging confer- ing Hamas); they want to prevent Iran

10 ence they will seek to display a political Egyptian determination to achieve suc- be willing to give for Shalit. Soliman was undercurrent of moral as well as mate- cess before the Arab world however may keeping the pressure on Hamas, but the rial support for the Palestinians; we have cause them to take risks with regard to Israelis were frustrated at Hamas’ stalling made clear to the Egyptians to tread their stated goals of supporting the PA tactics. In a separate conversation August very carefully on this front and not allow and delegitimizing Hamas. SCOBEY 29, Egyptian Charge d’Affaires Tarek El the message to dissolve into anti-Israeli Kouni told Pol Couns that Hamas was de- rhetoric. 5. (C) The Egyptians understand manding Egyptian guarantees that Israel Cable 6253 how weak the Palestinian Authority is. would not attack Gaza once Shalit was Although they hope the reconstruc- released. 3. (S) Regarding the Tahdiya, E C R E T TEL AVIV 001984 SIPDIS tion conference will serve to strengthen Hacham said Barak stressed that while it E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2018 TAGS: Mahmoud Abbas, they are under no illu- was not permanent, for the time being PREL, PGOV, PTER, EG, KPAL, IR, IS sions about who calls the shots in Gaza. it was holding. There have been a num- SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER BARAK’S They therefore convoked the Palestinian ber of violations of the ceasefire on the DISCUSSIONS IN EGYPT FOCUS ON factions again -- with Fatah,s delegation Gaza side, but Palestinian factions other SHALIT, TAHDIYA, ANTI-SMUGGLING, headed by Ahmed Qurei and Hamas, by than Hamas were responsible. Hacham AND IRAN Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moussa Abu Marzouk -- to meet in Cairo said the Israelis assess that Hamas is mak- Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) 1. (S) Summary. starting February 25 with a goal of ham- ing a serious effort to convince the other Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s August mering out a “national reconciliation” factions not to launch rockets or mor- 23 visit to Egypt was a success, accord- government that will be dominated by tars. Israel remains concerned by Hamas’ ing to MOD Arab Affairs Adviser David neither Hamas nor the PA. The Egyptians ongoing efforts to use the Tahdiya to Hacham. Barak’s meetings with President have stated their preference that the do- increase their strength, and at some Mubarak, Intelligence Minister Soliman, nations pledged at the March 2nd con- point, military action will have to be put and Defense Minister Tantawi focused ference would be overseen by an inter- back on the table. The Israelis reluctantly on reviving negotiations for the release national body, and disbursed to a new, admit that the Tahdiya has served to fur- of Corporal Shalit, the Israeli assessment “technocratic,” unity government in Gaza. ther consolidate Hamas’ grip on Gaza, but of the Tahdiya (Calming) with Hamas in They are adamant the funds must not it has brought a large measure of peace Gaza, and Egypt’s anti-smuggling efforts. go to Hamas. 6. (C) The Egyptians want and quiet to Israeli communities near Hacham said the Israelis were “shocked” the March 2nd conference in Sharm to Gaza. 4. (S) Turning to Egypt’s anti-smug- by President Mubarak’s aged appear- remind everyone -- especially the Arab gling efforts, Hacham said Barak had de- ance; their most substantive exchanges street -- that they remain at the top of the cided to praise Egypt’s performance pub- were with Soliman. Hacham said Iran Arab world, and that success in any major licly both in genuine acknowledgement was also on the agenda, with the Israeli undertaking depends not only on their of some improvements in destroying tun- and Egyptian sides agreeing they had support, but their leadership. They want nels and in order to show the Egyptians a common strategic interest in contain- to show that wealth alone (read “Qatar”) that Israel was capable of praising as ing Iran’s regional ambitions. Our sense cannot carry the day; only Egypt with its well as criticizing them. In private, how- is that the Israeli-Egyptian relationship is massive political and diplomatic weight ever, Barak also pushed the Egyptians to gradually improving since the beginning and unique connections can ensure do more, particularly in terms of stop- of the Tahdiya in June. Barak and MOD in long-term success. They want to thwart ping the smuggling well before the particular are committed to maintaining Iranian attempts to further their influ- arms reach the Gaza border. The Israelis a strategic relationship with Egypt. MFA ence -- via Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas continue to believe that the principle Director General Abramovich reportedly -- in the region. For Egypt, the greatest smuggling routes are from the Red Sea also is planning to visit Egypt next week strategic threat is from Iran, and they will coast across Sinai to Gaza, and Hacham to meet Foreign Minister Abul Gheit. End do everything in their power to prevent complained that the Egyptians were still Summary. 2. (S) MOD Arab Affairs Adviser Iranian influence CAIRO 00000358 002 OF reluctant to tackle the entire smuggling David Hacham, who was a member of 002 from spreading. 7. (C) The new intra- chain. 5. (S) In terms of atmospherics, Barak’s delegation, provided Pol Couns Arab reality is somewhat different than Hacham said the Israeli delegation was with an overview of Barak’s August 23 dis- the Egyptians perceive it be, however, as “shocked” by Mubarak’s aged appear- cussions with the Egyptian leadership in we have seen with Qatar,s successful ef- ance and slurred speech. Hacham was . Hacham restricted himself to forts to broker Lebanese political recon- full of praise for Soliman, however, and a broad overview of the three meetings ciliation in 2007. Our message, therefore, noted that a “hot line” set up between the (Mubarak, Soliman, and Tantawi) with- should be that Egyptian activeness - as MOD and Egyptian General Intelligence out describing any of them in detail. On evidenced by this conference - is critical Service is now in daily use. Hacham said Shalit, Hacham said the Egyptians con- for long-term maintenance of Egypt,s re- he sometimes speaks to Soliman’s deputy firmed that their discussions with Hamas gional role. If the Sharm Conference dem- Mohammed Ibrahim several times a day. had broken down. Hamas had refused onstrates Egyptian regional diplomatic Hacham noted that the Israelis believe to attend a meeting Soliman tried to ar- preponderance; that Egypt remains the Soliman is likely to serve as at least an range shortly before Barak’s arrival. The “great protector” of the Palestinians; and interim President if Mubarak dies or is in- Israelis think Hamas feels that the prison- that only Egypt and moderate partners capacitated. (Note: We defer to Embassy er exchange with Hizballah had strength- can lead the way forward, the Egyptians Cairo for analysis of Egyptian succession ened their hand in terms of how many will have gotten what they wanted. 8. (C) scenarios, but there is no question that and what kinds of prisoners Israel would

11 Israel is most comfortable with the pros- pect of Omar Soliman.) 6. (S) Iran report- edly was also on Barak’s agenda. Hacham did not provide details of the discussions, but said Barak and the Egyptian lead- ers agreed that Israel and Egypt have a common strategic interest in stopping the expansion of Iranian influence in the region, as well as a common view of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program. 7. (S) Comment: Barak’s visit and espe- cially his public praise of Egypt’s anti- smuggling efforts is evidence that MOD’s close cooperation with EGIS in negoti- ating the Tahdiya has resulted in a new atmosphere in Israeli-Egyptian relations. Barak’s visit was preceded by Israeli- Egyptian mil-to-mil talks in Cairo, and will be followed by a visit to Cairo by MFA Director General Aharon Abramovich next week. ***************************** **************** ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv’s Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department’s Classified SIPRNET website. **************************** ***************** ******************** CUNNINGHAM

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