18 The Security Times – Challenges February 2020

MIDDLE EAST IS PEACE possible?

A reconciliation process cannot get underway without the continued from page 17 participation of the two parties directly involved

And there were two exchanges no longer categorize West Bank settle- the security and future of the entire And now, just in time for Israel’s third of prisoners, including key fig- BY GISELA DACHS ments “per se” as illegal. Since then, Middle East.” In Gantz’s opinion, how- election within one year, Washington ures such as the Luhansk mili- particularly in radical circles in Israel, ever, the fate of the settlements should has re-entered the game with its long- tia officer Volodymyr Tsemakh hen Federica Mogherini demands for the immediate annexa- be decided by agreements that “meet awaited Middle East Peace Plan. As and the Ukrainian filmmaker became the European tion of large areas of land are being security requirements and can advance expected, the plan is more strongly in Oleg Sentsov, who had been sen- WUnion’s High Represen- expressed in increasingly loud tones. peace.” In other words, if Gantz hap- line with the views of the Israeli right tenced to life in a Russian prison. tative for Foreign Affairs and Security However, in each of these cases – with pens to become the next Israeli prime than all previous US drafts. The plan Sentsov expresses little faith in Policy in November 2014, she was opti- the exception of some rather adventur- minister, it could mean a change of also displays Trump’s desire to help a possible Donbass settlement: mistic about the future of the Israeli- ous transfer plans – these radical voices course in the Israeli-Palestinian rela- his friend Netanyahu politically while “Putin doesn’t regard us as a state. Palestinian relationship. At the time, she have yet to provide an answer to the tionship. Indeed, if he succeeds in form- simultaneously mobilizing American For him, we are little more than suggested that it might even be possible question of the status of the Palestin- ing a more centrist government and evangelicals for his own re-election in a rebellious province that the to reach a two-state solution within ian populations residing in these areas. relegating right-wing forces such as the the fall. empire should call to order.” her five-year term. Today, Mogherini’s Rabin’s basic premise that the Israeli Palestinian-American commentator Beyond this, however, it remains Before nationalists staged mass successor, Josep Borrell, has taken over state cannot be simultaneously Jewish, Daoud Kuttab to the sidelines after a highly questionable whether this move protests, Zelensky had expressed the reins at the EU foreign office, and democratic and all-embracing continues decade in power, it wouldn’t necessarily by Trump can actually achieve a break- his faith in achieving a break- there has been no progress whatsoever to apply to this day. This premise is also deliver an overnight breakthrough, but through. As expected, the Palestinian through toward peace at the on the Israeli-Palestinian front. It is also ultimately accepted by Israelis who see it might mark the beginning of a brand- leadership immediately rejected the Paris talks. Not long beforehand, highly doubtful that President Trump's it as their historical birthright to settle new peace process. plan. At the same time, they also had to Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s top adviser, spoke of Kyiv’s readiness for constitutional reform and the provision of special powers for Donetsk and Luhansk. The prob- lem with this approach, however, PRESS IMAGES/ZUMA IMAGO is that it would turn the sepa- ratist-controlled territories into a state within a state. It’s easy to see how other ethnic enclaves – such as Hungarians in Trans- carpathia – would react to this. The fact remains that the Minsk Protocol had the support of Kyiv. But creating a territory within the country that is beyond Kyiv’s con- trol would have catastrophic con- sequences for Zelensky’s career. Speaking the night after the talks in Paris, the president expressed views on key political issues that were almost in line with his rival and predecessor Poroshenko: Ukraine will not accept constitu- tional changes that will lead to a violation of the country's unity, and the government will never negotiate directly with the leaders of the DPR and LPR. What will happen to Donbass if Russia rigidly supports the “Steinmeier formula,” Ukraine insists on changes to the agree- ment and Europe continues to pressure Moscow with sanc- tions? The answer to this ques- tion remains elusive in the Rus- sian capital because everyone suspects Donbass will gradually become another Transnistria. Just Deal of the century? Palestinian demonstrators during a protest against the Trump administration’s proposed Middle East Peace Plan in Gaza City. as in Moldova, Eastern Ukrainian authorities will not be able to find recently published Middle East Peace on biblical soil. In other words, in order If this were to occur, the next ques- acknowledge a loss of standing. Since a common political denominator. Plan will bring the parties any closer to to safeguard the Zionist project, they tion would be who exactly the Israelis the onset of the Arab uprisings in 2011, But economically and in terms of resolving the conflict. see it as necessary to separate from the would meet at the negotiating table. The many have viewed the Israeli-Palestin- everyday life, people will learn to In fact, the word “peace” is seldom Palestinians. Palestinians are still deeply divided into ian conflict as just one of several con- live together. heard these days in the public debates Among those who adhere to this two political camps. Hamas, an Islamist flicts in the region. The authors of the There are reports that the on both sides. For domestic political school of thought is Benny Gantz, party, has ruled in the Gaza Strip since US plan are relying on the plan being Ukrainian government is now reasons alone, neither Israeli Prime Netanyahu’s challenger from the 2006, while President Abbas’ Fatah party accepted by those Arab states whose considering resuming railway Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who Blue and White party. Gantz vaguely remains in power in the West Bank. New interests coincide with US and Israeli links with the districts of Donetsk remains in office even after being embraced the “important statement” elections have been promised and, this positions regarding Tehran. To date, and Luhansk, regions not con- indicted and is seeking re-election on from the US government, noting that time, all sides have stated at least their such voices have been very restrained, trolled by Kyiv. Given its coal- March 2, nor the 85-year-old Palestin- it demonstrated America’s firm stance theoretical desire to participate. How- if heard at all. Although the number of oriented CHP power plans and ian President Mahmud Abbas, who last alongside Israel and its “commitment to ever, both camps are struggling for legiti- optimists has declined over the years, industry, it’s proving difficult received direct legitimization from Pal- macy in the eyes of their own popula- such hopeful voices argue that the plan for Ukraine to live without coal estinians in the West Bank 15 years ago, tions, and many Palestinians would like has at least brought the issue back onto from Donbass. Yet, despite the are in any major way interested in a to see new forces come to power. the table and that it could lead to the ban, there are all sorts of ways to process of reconciliation. In order to counter growing criti- resumption of a peace process. But that acquire coal. From today’s perspective, the Oslo cism of the Hamas regime, its leaders will also depend on the results of the For example, one Belarusian Accord signed by Israeli Prime Minister Just in time for will have to do a lot more for the two elections in Israel and the US. At this oligarch has received a large Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chief Yasser million people in their charge. It is no point, it would be wise for the Pales- quota for the sale of Russian coal Arafat on the lawn of the White House Israel’s third longer enough to rally these people tinians to take time to reflect on and to Ukraine. Whether the coal in 1993, belongs to a bygone era. At – most of whom are barely eking out perhaps even question their past politi- is from Russia or Donbass is an that time, the hawks in Rabin’s camp election within a living in the Gaza Strip – in hatred cal strategy of categorically rejecting open question. And finally, the were convinced they had reached a of the Zionists. This is the reason proposals – some of which were better question of the transit of Russian point where Israel was strong enough one year, why Hamas held back during the last than what lies before them today. gas through Ukraine has been to deter its Arab neighbors from plans exchange of blows between Israel and Ultimately, a renewed peace process settled and takes into account the to wipe it off the map. According to this Washington Islamic Jihad in Gaza, thereby prov- cannot get underway without the par- interests of the territories occu- logic, the historical compromise with ing that it is capable of creating and ticipation of the two parties directly pied by the separatists. the Palestinians would ultimately bring has re-entered maintaining an atmosphere of calm. involved. These days, it looks like nei- Geopolitics has played a cruel Israel more security and more “nor- A long-term cease-fire between Israel ther the time nor the region is ripe for joke on everyone: on those who malcy.” A lot of water has passed under the game with and Hamas under the aegis of Egypt that step. were in a hurry to become part of the proverbial bridge since then. Today, and with the help of UN Special Rep- the liberal world; on those who many Israelis have adopted a narrative its long-awaited resentative Nikolay Mladenov has been did not want to; and on those that is not entirely unjustified, namely under negotiation ever since. If this who, like in Putin’s Russia, tried that whenever their army withdraws Middle East succeeds, it could mean at least a few to prevent it by all means pos- from territories – for example, from years of rest for Israelis living on the sible. It seems that the new politi- Lebanon in 2000 and the Gaza Strip Peace Plan edge of the Gaza Strip – that is, no cal generation will have to start in 2005 – the tendency is for Islamists siren alarms and rocket fire. In return, from a point even more distant to then take control in those areas the population in Gaza would have and incomprehensible than the and maneuver into a better position the opportunity to recover economi- Belovezha accords that regulated to attack Israel. In this case, however, cally and take advantage of increased GISELA DACHS the end of the USSR. security concerns also overlap with freedom of movement. This would by is a long-time Israel-based correspondent for the German ideological claims. no means be the equivalent of peace, weekly Die Zeit. She is now a senior This is why the remarks made in if only because Hamas would not be lecturer at the European Forum November by US Secretary of State obliged to recognize Israel. At the same and the DAAD Center for German VIKTOR LOSHAK is strategy director for the Pompeo came at just the right moment time, however, an agreement such as Studies at Hebrew University in Moscow daily Kommersant. for Israelis in the right-wing camp. this would enhance Hamas’ standing Jerusalem. Pompeo announced that the US would both domestically and internationally.