Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy’s role in the UK in 2050?

Dame Sue Ion FREng FRS Hon President National Skills Academy for Nuclear (NSAN) "Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future”

• What works • What doesn’t work • What needs to be done

In terms of nuclear energy...... As they say:- a week is a long time in politics –and we’ve had several of them!...... What next for the UK Nuclear Sector?

• Strengths • Challenges and • Opportunities To understand what the future might hold......

• We need to understand where our journey has led us so far

And

• Where we sit in the global nuclear world

Civil : UK Sodium-cooled fast Gas-cooled Water-cooled 1950 reactors reactors reactors 1956 DFR 1960 1959 HTR 1965-1976 SGHWR 1967 1970 1977 AGR 1990 PFR 1976 1980 1974 Sizewell B PWR 1990 1995 1994

Present

Why BREXATOM Matters: 3 Major issues to deal with

• Safeguards and security: replacing Euratom with the ONR and IAEA

• The European Supply Agency and the need for Nuclear Cooperation Agreements/Treaties

• Research Teresa May Florence speech 21 Sept 2017

What about Nuclear Energy and Medicine?  uses radiation to provide diagnostic information about the functioning of a person's specific organs, or to treat them. Diagnostic procedures using radioisotopes are now routine.

 Radiotherapy can be used to treat some medical conditions, especially cancer, using radiation to weaken or destroy particular targeted cells.

 Over 40 million nuclear medicine procedures are performed each year, and demand for radioisotopes is increasing at up to 5% annually.

 Sterilization of medical equipment is also an important use of radioisotopes.

BONE SCINTIGRAPHY with Tc99m pyrophosphate

Normal images Multiple metastasis of prostate cancer

Ant view Post view Ant view Post view

Y-90 Around the World

• 430 plants in operation, in 31 countries • Providing 11% of the world’s power • 70 being built in 13 countries notably China, India, South Korea and Russia • 179 on order or planned • A further 308 proposed • Major steps being taken in the US, France, and elsewhere • Significant further capacity being created by plant upgrading. Plant Life Extensions maintaining capacity

Source: World Nuclear Association & IAEA PRIS database, as at 2017 China • Huge energy growth 37 operating reactors • 20 reactors under construction • 5-6 fold growth planned by 2020 to at least 58GWe – 4% of electricity Then 150GWe by 2030 and 400 by 2050? • NPT member, potential Asian supplier • Actively developing most advanced systems

UK’s strength, challenge and opportunity Knowledge of many systems: Funding gap/ lack of direction: Failure to grasp opportunity?

Current Planned Potential

Plus Many More! – Maybe! UK has Experience of Commercial Scale Reprocessing and the Associated Development: will the closure of Thorp and the cessation of commercial reprocessing be a wasted opportunity?

Mixer Settlers

Pulsed Columns From Full Fuel Cycle Industrial Experience to just Front End and Decommissioning?

Springfields Fuel Manufacture

Sellafield Reprocessing , Waste management And decommissioning Capenhurst Enrichment Waste Management and Decommissioning The UK’s original ambitions for new build

AREVA EPR

Westinghouse AP1000

Hitachi ABWR Olkiluoto 3 Finland & Flamanville 3 France

Flamanville 3

Olkiluoto 3 Finland Hinkley Point C

Complex Congested Heavy Enormous ! Non-repetitive Wylfa Newydd Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Power station Japan

Unit 6: 3/11/92 Start of Construction:18/12/95 First criticality: 7/11/96 Commissioned Unit 7: 1/7/93 Start of Construction: 1/11/96 First criticality: 2/7/97 Commissioned Westinghouse AP1000 China AP1000 Plant Progress Sanmen 1 – August 2016 Sanmen site – August 2016

Haiyang 1 – August 2016 Haiyang 2 – August 2016

Photos © Sanmen Nuclear Power Company, Ltd.; Nuclear Power Company, Ltd., All rights reserved.

Moorside APR1400 Barakah UAE Hualong One China

Pressurised Water Reactor Capital and Finance Costs

Capital 17% Decommissioning 2% 41% Operations and Maintenance Fuel 25% Spent Fuel Management

2% Financing 13% Costs dominated by capital required to construct and timescale to finances before returns flow.

What about Research and Fusion? Example of significant beneficial leverage from participation in EU project

International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the world's largest reactor

47 Challenges Confining hot plasmas

Making ITER a success

DEMO: when to start?: how to finance? Maximising value from JET in the UK Collaborating with Japan Controlling the plasma Preparing for advanced ITER regimes Solving heat exhaust issues

Coping with neutron damage Replacing key components Blanket materials and tritium handling So what next...... ? Where does that leave us as a sector?

• The nuclear sector deal • SMR’s • Future investment in next generation technology "Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future”

• What works- If we look overseas; fleet build • What doesn’t work- The current free market • What needs to be done...... What do we need? – Fleet effect: Building a fleet of one type of reactor will achieve NOAK, reduced build times and reduced electricity costs and contribute to decarbonisation targets – Owning technology: Owning IP leads to more UK content, increased GVA, jobs and exports – industrial strategy growth targets – Finance costs: Government intervention in financing of new build can lead to lower interest rates with significant reduction of electricity cost – Control of build rate: Planning a ‘regular drumbeat’ of reactors leads to supply chain efficiency and job continuity – Future technology and programmes - creating IP ownership and exports – Maximising economic benefit for the UK – enhancing supply chain efficiency – Science and Innovation – introducing disruptive innovation from nuclear and other sectors Integrating into the Nuclear Sector Deal – Key Areas

Creating IP Nuclear Sector Deal ownership and exports Sub Divisions Civil Defence Enabling alternative Future New Technology WM Defence financing and Build &D fleet effect. Maximising Economic Benefit

Science & Innovation Enhancing supply chain

efficiency Regulation

cutting themes cutting -

Introducing Skills

disruptive Cross innovation from nuclear and other sectors What about Small Modular Reactors? What’s happened to the proposed UK initiative?

What about Advanced Systems generally? Opportunities – Small Modular Reactors • Drastically reduced cost of capital (compared to large reactors) – Smaller designs maximise the extent to which construction can be undertaken in a controllable factory setting using 21st century manufacturing techniques. – Capital cost per item is greatly reduced. – Shorter construction periods with lower risk. • Conceived to be built in significant numbers enabling cost reduction to be achieved by learning through doing (in contrast to small numbers of large reactors). • SMRs can be built on sites not suitable for larger reactors. • A flexible means of continuing to deliver a baseload of low carbon energy to complement renewables. • The easiest opportunity for UK manufacturers to gain entry to a reactor market. – No established global suppliers – Potential for a large global market – Benefit of being first to market • The SMRs that are closest to market are all PWRs – not novel technology, though can be novel configuration in some cases.

1. Range of SMR designs

CNEA Martingale CNNC CAREM ThorCon ACP-100

Holtec B&W NuScale SMR160 Westinghouse mPower SMR

Thorium100 HTMR100 X-Energy Urenco KAERI Moltex Energy (Not to scale) Xe100 U-Battery SMART SSR Moltex Heat Applications & Temperatures: The Potential for Dual Mission Nuclear Plants The Potential Market… > 600 Reactors?

Petrochemical Petroleum Refining (50- (150) 100)

Coal-to-Liquids (100s) Fertilizers/Ammonia Oil Sands/Shale (100+) (200+) MICRO Reactor Opportunity U-Battery • Micro nuclear modular reactor. • Provides local power and heat (800°C). • Single unit 10MWt, 4MWe. • Fits in volume of two squash courts. • Overall installation has 60 year life. • Gas cooled, helium in primary circuit, helium/nitrogen in secondary circuit driving turbine. • Inherently safe TRISO fuel (up to 20% enriched 235-U). • Fuel cartridge lasts five years. • Spent fuel cartridge fits in international standard Excellox spent fuel transport flask. National Nuclear R&D Programme 2020 2025

Fuel Advanced Fuel Accident tolerant Fuel Research Pin ready for and more efficient Facilities Irradiation fuel commercialised

UK is key UK is key UK to be a Advanced partner in the partner in the supplier of Reactors development of development of significant reactor advanced systems advanced systems components Gen IV Reactors Lab scale of a safe, Lab scale of a safe, Recycle Recycle economic and efficient economic and efficient Research advanced recycle tech. advanced recycle tech. Technology Facilities using surrogate materials using spent fuel

Demonstrate Waste Develop Waste immobilisation Research technologies for technology leading Management Facilities Advanced recycle to hot cell testing National Nuclear R&D Programme 2020 2025

Integrated New codes that Thermal Hydraulics and Physics Modelling Modelling make the UK a and simulation Testing Simulation leading nation capability

Activities completed Control and that support the uptake Develop Advanced C&I Systems Instrumentation of modern I&C within industry and the regulator Gen IV Reactors Developed Advanced Robotics Robotics Automated Systems and Remote Handling Capability

Validation & World class test facilities supporting validation and Verification verification est. National Nuclear R&D Programme 2020 2025

Developed and demonstrated Strategic appropriate tools to evaluate potential Assessments fuel cycles to shape future research programmes

Tools identified to Tools and Public communicate Techniques routinely Engagement effectively used to engage with the public public Gen IV Reactors

Technology Consistently review and evaluate potential technologies which Watch show benefits to the UK

We can be World Class and Top Table again but not if we pursue the current policy World-Leading Research Facilities Advanced Manufacturing Research and Innovation

NNL Central Laboratory What needs to be done?

• Use less bits • Take less time • Build a fleet of the same design • Borrow the money cheaply • Jump a technology generation Thankyou. Questions? Hornsea 2 Windfarm

£57.50/MWh strike price

1386MW capacity 3 Phases 6-15MW Turbines Hornsea 1 Windfarm

£140/MWh Strike price 1200MW capacity: 174 7MW turbines: 407 km² Assumed generic load factor of 42%