“[A]lthough the institutionalization of the ruling party organization after Meles’s death ensured the immediate survival of the Ethiopian regime, we should not confuse short-term stability and growth with long-term sustainability.”

Ethiopia After Meles: Stability for How Long? Lovise Aalen

hen , the national and Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) for the ruling party leader for 21 years, died open leadership position would create obstacles Win August 2012, most observers pre- to a peaceful succession. Both Meles’s personal dicted that would be thrown into an leadership style and the multiethnic composition uncertain transition and put in great danger by of the ruling party contributed to this fear. The destructive internal power struggles and external EPRDF came to power in 1991 after toppling the pressure. As the months went by, none of these Marxist of Mengistu Haile things happened. Instead, the world witnessed a Mariam (1974–91). The party is a coalition of peaceful succession, and a calm status quo has four ethnic-based movements, created and led been maintained under the new prime minister, by one of them, the Tigray People’s Liberation . Front (TPLF). Despite the TPLF’s domination, the Numerous analyses of political developments member parties have constantly feuded over who in post-Meles Ethiopia have expressed amazement should be promoted to various positions, partly at this tranquility, particularly in the context of based on ethnic rivalries. past state collapse and civil wars in neighboring While the TPLF’s original founders played a states in the Horn of region. Two questions dominant role in the EPRDF throughout the 1990s, present themselves. First, what are the reasons for Meles gradually managed to maneuver among the the apparently smooth changeover? And second, different factions to strengthen his personal power will the stability prove long lasting—or just an base. He became leader of the TPLF in 1989, was intermezzo before turmoil erupts? the interim from 1991 to Successful institutionalization of the ruling 1995, and served 12 years as prime minister until party organization and strong economic growth his death (from natural causes) in 2012. are crucial factors to note in explaining why One of his most important maneuvers took place Meles’s death did not produce chaos. The con- after an internal party schism emerged in 2001. tinuation of authoritarian and centralized devel- Disagreements about ideology and how to deal with opmental state policies, which are hampering the Eritrean regime led to the expulsion of major the realization of political and civil rights and political veterans in the EPRDF, ultimately enhanc- the devolution of power under an ethnic-based ing Meles’s position as undisputed leader. Frequent federal system—coupled with the potential for a reshuffles in the cabinet and in the party organiza- slowdown in economic growth—indicates that tion thereafter made him seem a master of factional stability may not last long. manipulation, prompting worries about too much power being concentrated in his hands. Succession plan Long before his death, speculation regarding When Meles died, a major concern was that the absence of potential successors increased power struggles within the Ethiopian People’s apprehensions about a potential breakdown if Meles decided to resign. After the 2010 elections, which reinforced the EPRDF’s dominance, the Lovise Aalen is a senior researcher at the Chr. Michelsen party took measures to promote a new breed of Institute in Bergen, . Her books include The Politics of Ethnicity in Ethiopia: Actors, Power, and Mobilization leaders. A number of party veterans retired, while under (Brill, 2011). a new generation of younger leaders represent-

192 Ethiopia After Meles: Stability for How Long? • 193 ing a balance among the various ethnic blocs was tion is still sustained by the authority that Meles’s promoted. This collective leadership transition rule embodied. But maybe most important of all, appeased some of the criticisms and concerns over the economic growth that started under Meles has succession. so far been maintained. This provides the crucial Although no successor was named then, the foundation for the support and legitimacy of the appointment of Hailemariam, a Protestant from EPRDF’s dominant party rule. Ethiopia has seen the traditionally marginalized south, as deputy unprecedented growth for the past few years—the prime minister gave hints about Ethiopia’s politi- economy expanded by 8.5 percent in 2012. Many cal direction after Meles. There are reasons to citizens have escaped poverty as a result. From a believe that when the news of Meles’s death was financial point of view, Ethiopia is a success story. released on August 20, 2012, important indi- From a human rights perspective, the situation viduals within the party had known for some is different. In controversial national elections in time about his terminal medical condition. The 2005, the opposition took a third of the parlia- party appeared to have planned the succession ment’s seats, and a government crackdown on well, introducing a new national leadership well postelection protesters led to the deaths of more balanced in terms of ethnic representation. While than 200 people. Since then, the space for political the new prime minister represented the Southern life and discussion has been severely constricted. Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement, the Following the enactment of a range of laws three deputy prime ministers represented each of regulating civil society, independent media, and the remaining parties in the coalition: the Amhara opposition parties, as well as a new and excessive National Democratic Movement, the TPLF, and antiterrorism law, voices outside the ruling party’s the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization. immediate control can hardly be heard. Party leaders did not use the transition as an As Northwestern University’s Richard Joseph opportunity to change direc- suggested in the November tion. Instead, their main 2011 issue of Current priority after Meles’s death The lack of separation between party History, what really counts was to maintain the status from the regime’s perspec- and government affairs means that quo. So far they appear to tive is not its democratic have succeeded. This shows bureaucrats are highly politicized. character but its capacity that, despite rumors of to project force, domesti- intra-EPRDF struggles, the cally and externally, and the party has managed to consolidate its position, country’s socioeconomic indicators. The EPRDF independent of personal leadership. Hailemariam, maintains that it provides the Ethiopian people the new prime minister, is less rhetorically gifted with what they need—a developmental state and than Meles, and lacks his predecessor’s experience revolutionary democracy, the antithesis to neolib- as a rebel leader during the country’s civil war. eralism. But his hard work and technocratic approach, his The ideological thinking behind the EPRDF’s undisputed loyalty to the EPRDF’s program and ide- developmental state can be traced to the party’s ology, and the fact that he represents two histori- Marxist-Leninist tradition and to Meles’s ideas cally marginalized groups—evangelical Christians and pronouncements in office. Although he and the southern peripheral peoples—make him a liberalized and privatized parts of the Ethiopian good compromise candidate who does not threaten economy in the early 1990s, the late prime min- any of the factions within the party. ister was a staunch critic of the neoliberal model Indeed, a common complaint during and structural adjustment policies implemented Hailemariam’s first year as prime minister was that elsewhere in the continent. In particular, Meles he mentioned Meles’s legacy in nearly every public argued that the neoliberal paradigm failed to speech. It is said that he has not managed to come appreciate the problem of market failures in up with his own policies and visions, giving the Africa—and hence the state’s necessary role in impression of a rather spiritless national leader. steering economic development. EPRDF party documents and Meles himself referred to the Delivering development postwar experiences of and Taiwan Hailemariam has faithfully carried on with the in stressing the need for state intervention to policies defined by his predecessor, and his posi- promote development. 194 • CURRENT HISTORY • May 2014

The Ethiopian Growth and Transformation ernment employment for young graduates or the Plan, covering the period from 2010 to 2015, promotion of civil servants to better positions. includes ambitious development goals. In order This has proved a highly efficient method, both to make Ethiopia a mid-level-income country by for sustaining and enlarging the ruling party’s 2020–25, the industrial sector has to take the lead popular base and for eroding the opposition. In from agriculture in its contribution to the national the last national election, in 2010, the party won economy. Among five industries prioritized by the all but one seat in the parliament. The number plan, the state will take the lead in two capital- of EPRDF members has grown from around half intensive sectors (metals and sugar) through the a million to over six million since the contested establishment of monopolistic government cor- 2005 elections. porations. Meanwhile, the opposition parties that com- In an effort to transform the subsistence agri- peted in the 2005 polls have all been split and culture economy, the plan clearly stipulates the marginalized, both by their own factionalism and government’s intention to transfer three million by the government’s deliberate shrinking of politi- hectares of land in lowland parts of the country cal space. The Blue Party, a recently established to private investors. Moreover, in the urban areas opposition party, has attempted to mobilize sup- the government is using small and micro enter- porters. It managed to organize a rally and pro- prises to provide jobs for hundreds of thousands tests in in 2013. But it is still unclear of unemployed youth. to many what this party stands for and whether it represents a genuine alternative to the EPRDF. Blurred boundaries There is even speculation that the EPRDF may be These developmental state policies go hand in behind the party—as part of its search for a “con- hand with the EPRDF’s own brand of popular rule, structive, progressive opposition.” “revolutionary democra- The lack of separa- cy.” In this model, what tion between party and is most important is not Centralized policy making is weakening government affairs also the representation but means that Ethiopian the mechanisms for accommodating the “participation” of the bureaucrats at all levels people. Through mobili- ethnic and political pluralism. are highly politicized, zation of the masses by acting as agents of the the ruling party’s van- ruling party. In the clas- guard, a strong revolutionary leadership will lead sical developmental states of East Asia, an inde- the people to obedient participation. Around one pendent bureaucracy—enabling technocrats to third of the residents of an average-sized kebele, make public policies insulated from vested inter- the lowest administrative unit, are today members ests—was seen as crucial for creating sustainable of the local council controlled by the EPRDF, and economic growth. But the lack of an autonomous are thus participating in local affairs but safely civil service in Ethiopia is not a concern for the within the ruling party’s control. EPRDF. In addition, the party uses development teams, When I confronted an official in the national or what it calls “One to Five Networks,” to mobi- EPRDF leadership, about this in an interview in lize peasants for community development projects November 2012, he replied that the politicization like soil and water conservation, and also as a of the bureaucracy was “by design, and not by communication channel for party affairs, particu- default.” He argued that the EPRDF wants party larly during elections and for controlling dissent. officials to play leading roles in all areas of society, In this scheme, each development team controls including the bureaucracy. In the civil service, he no more than five households. In addition to peas- said, “we [the EPRDF] go after the hard workers, ants, civil servants, students, and even children struggle to make them our members, to recruit at elementary schools are now being organized those who are willing to change.” The bureaucra- on this basis, and are expected to meet every cy, he contended, should not be isolated; it should Wednesday and Friday. be rooted in the masses and the party: “We cannot This mobilization process has predictably envisage a developmental state currently without blurred boundaries between the party and the the EPRDF, [since] there are no other parties with state. Membership in the EPRDF facilitates gov- the comprehensive understanding like we have.” Ethiopia After Meles: Stability for How Long? • 195

The politicization of the bureaucracy, in com- Particularly since the contested 2005 elections, bination with a strongly hierarchical political when the EPRDF reoriented itself toward build- tradition and a culture of centralism in the ing a “developmental state,” ethnic self-rule has EPRDF, may nevertheless prove detrimental to been given less emphasis, and the constitutional the sustainability of the Ethiopian developmental devolution of power has in many cases been state. This combination prevents the ruling party overlooked in making way for centrally planned from receiving genuine feedback from the people developmental policies, plans, and projects. The themselves. It therefore affords little room for construction of large-scale hydropower dams correcting failing policies, curbing corruption, or and irrigated sugar plantations in the southern promoting transparency. region’s Lower Omo Valley without the consent In daily practice, it is likely that party concerns of the local pastoral people, and the eviction of and loyalty come first, and concern for creat- farmers from land given to international inves- ing inclusive development comes second. As the tors in the Gambella region, exemplify the con- journalist René Lefort has rightly pointed out, the flicting aims of national development projects most promising path for a rent seeker in Ethiopia and evolution of the federal system. is to join the party and climb the ladder within Top-down development edicts are undermin- it—while the private sector, which is supposed to ing the autonomy of the regional states. Rather be the engine of growth in a developmental state, than facilitating national integration, centralized remains underdeveloped and undernourished. policy making is weakening the mechanisms for accommodating ethnic and political pluralism, Internal contradictions creating new sources of conflict in multiethnic When the EPRDF came to power in 1991, the Ethiopia. Ethiopian government was restructured from a unitary state into a multiethnic federation through Risks ahead the subdivision of the national territory into nine Even though Ethiopia has received almost unan- ethnic-based regional states, the representation imous international approval for its ability to create of these states in the national government, and economic growth during the past decade, its num- the establishment of numerous ethnically defined bers are contested and the character of the growth local administration units. The transitional char- is disputed. Such criticisms call into question the ter adopted in 1991 and the federal constitution EPRDF’s claim of providing the Ethiopian people that came into force in 1995 recognized the rights with what they need—inclusive and sustainable of self-administration, and even secession, among Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. Y IN The devolution of power to subnational units From the archives TOR TH IS E H M proved successful in avoiding the large-scale of Current History… A K I conflicts of the past between the central state and N ethnic-based liberation movements. But as con- “The internationaliza- 1 G flicts were diffused from the national to the local tion of domestic issues level, this led to a sharpening of ethnic divides and the permeability of and an ethnicization of local conflicts. sovereign (especially After major ethnic groups received legislative, small and weak) states created opportuni- executive, and judicial powers in the regional ties for big power involvement in Africa on states, entirely new actors became involved a scale and of a scope unknown even during in the government of their own communities, the . The Angola crisis illustrated also the expansionist mood of the Soviet even though they all were part of the EPRDF or Union and the timidity of the . EPRDF-affiliated parties. This seemed an efficient way for the new power elite to get a foothold It would be the height of irony if indepen- in every ethnic community in the country, but dence and non-alignment signaled more, it led also to unwanted mobilization of ethnic rather than less, big power intrusion.” identities among new groups in the contest W. A. E. Skurnik for resources and power, described as “narrow “Africa and the Superpowers” nationalism” and “ethnic chauvinism” by the November 1976 party leadership. 196 • CURRENT HISTORY • May 2014 development—and may ultimately challenge the consumption, millions of (consera- whole rationale for maintaining a centralized revo- tively estimated by the Ethiopian government lutionary democracy and keeping the political and at 2.7 million for 2014) still depend on food civil rights of liberal democracy at bay. aid. The country’s economy remains small and There are many questions regarding the scope vulnerable to drought. Scope for improving the and nature of Ethiopia’s economic growth. The agricultural sector is also limited because of land International Monetary Fund has argued, for scarcity, degradation, low soil fertility, and tenure instance, that the government’s annual growth insecurity. The industrial and service sectors suf- rates of 10 to 11 percent are overstated, and were fer from weak financial institutions, lack of skilled likely closer to 7 to 8 percent from 2004 to 2010. and semi-skilled human resources, poor informa- The World Bank has expressed concern that tion technology, cumbersome regulatory regimes, growth has been dependent on public investment, and scarcity of foreign exchange. while ruling party–affiliated businesses dominate Illicit trafficking of hard currency from the the weak private sector. Soaring double-digit infla- country is also a growing challenge: A report by tion, particularly on food items, and a currency the UN Development Program shows that in 2009, devaluation that has made the birr worth much these outflows of illicit money totaled $3.26 bil- less in relation to the dollar than some years ago, lion, which was double the amount in each of have severely affected the ordinary population. the two previous years. Corruption is particularly All of this has reduced the immediate benefits endemic in land acquisition, tax and customs pay- of growth for the majority of Ethiopians. The ments, and government procurement. Official country still has the smallest urban sector in campaigns against corruption are impeded by Africa: 17 percent of the economy, in contrast to popular perceptions that such campaigns are used a 34 percent average across the continent. This, for political purposes. together with the high inflation rates, casts doubt These developmental challenges, in combina- on the EPRDF’s claim of successfully creating an tion with the blurred division between party and urban middle class. state interests and the contradiction between the Meanwhile, as the Ethiopia scholar John constitutional devolution of power and the actual Markakis has pointed out, the country’s growth in centralization of development policies, raise ques- educational facilities has not resulted in increased tions about the longevity of Ethiopia’s stability. quality. Less than half of the secondary-level They demonstrate that, although the institution- teachers are certified, high school dropout rates alization of the ruling party organization after are still high, and many rural areas have yet to see Meles’s death ensured the immediate survival school expansions. of the Ethiopian regime, we should not confuse While agriculture continues to provide the short-term stability and growth with long-term major items for export and also food for local sustainability. ■