eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Jose Information from NHC Advisory 6, 5:00 PM AST Wed September 6, 2017 Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose could be near major hurricane strength on Friday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind Position Relative to 75 mph 1040 miles E of the Lesser Speed: Land: Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 994 mb Coordinates: 13.9 N, 45.8 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 70 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 16 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Jose continuing west- northwest. To illustrate the uncertainty in Jose’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Jose Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Jose

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Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the should monitor the progress of Jose.

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/06/17) 11 5 2

2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/06/17) 8 4 1

14.7 7.9 3.8 1995-2011 season average 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4

(May25, 2017)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Jose is the tenth named storm while Katia is the eleventh of the 2017 Atlantic The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average Hurricane Season. Last year saw eight named storms four hurricanes and one occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that major hurricane by September 6. Jose became the season’s fifth named hurricane on September 06. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on , located near Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, on Tropical Storm Jose, located over the central September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Katia, located over the southwestern Gulf of with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 6 is 61% for all hurricanes and 60% for Mexico. major hurricanes.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) 50% Contact us

Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl40% Matt Nicolai

roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected]

+1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-667230% +1 (952) 841-6657

20%

10%

0% 2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec