Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
STATE OF NEW YORK
PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION
Case 18-T-0604: Application of Deepwater Wind South Fork, LLC for a Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need for the Construction of Approximately 3.5 Miles of Submarine Export Cable from the New York State Territorial Waters Boundary to the South Shore of the Town of East Hampton in Suffolk County and Approximately 4.1 Miles of Terrestrial Export Cable from the South Shore of the Town of East Hampton to an Interconnection Facility with an Interconnection Cable Connecting to the Existing East Hampton Substation in the Town of East Hampton, Suffolk County.
Direct Testimony of Cullen Howe
On behalf of
Win With South Fork Wind, Inc.
October 9, 2020
Michael B. Gerrard Senior Counsel, Arnold & Porter Director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School [email protected] (212) 854-3287
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
1 IDENTIFICATION AND QUALIFICATIONS
2 1. Please state your name and business address.
3 1-A. Cullen Howe
4 Natural Resources Defense Council
5 40 West 20th St.
6 New York, NY 10011
7 2. On whose behalf are you testifying?
8 2-A. I am testifying on behalf of Win With South Fork Wind, Inc. (“Win With
9 Wind”). Win With Wind is an independent, nonpartisan group of private citizens of
10 the South Fork that is not affiliated with or funded by any wind or energy
11 development company. Win With Wind aims to produce fact-based information
12 regarding the benefits of offshore wind energy and supports the South Fork Wind
13 Farm as an opportunity to place their community at the forefront of clean energy
14 leadership.
15 3. By whom are you employed and in what capacity?
16 3-A. I am employed by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in the
17 Climate & Clean Energy Program. My title is Senior Renewable Energy Advocate.
18 4. Please summarize your qualifications.
19 4-A. At NRDC I advocate for renewable energy in the Eastern U.S., including New
20 York State. I previously worked as a senior attorney and New York office director at
2
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
21 the Acadia Center, where I focused on clean energy policy in New York, and as an
22 environmental law specialist at Arnold & Porter. I have a J.D. and a Master’s in
23 environmental law from Vermont Law School. My resume is provided at Exhibit __
24 (CH-01).
25 5. Have you previously testified before the New York State Public Service
26 Commission?
27 5-A. No.
28
29 I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
30 6. What is the purpose of your testimony in this proceeding?
31 6-A. I am testifying to discuss the role of offshore wind in meeting New York’s
32 clean energy goals.
33 7. Please summarize your testimony.
34 7-A. The South Fork Wind Farm is poised to be the first offshore wind facility in
35 New York State. If approved and built, the project will contribute to meeting the
36 ambitious clean energy goals that Governor Cuomo has laid out, including via
37 statutory mandate, pursuant to New York’s landmark legislation to address climate
38 change, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). That law
39 requires that: a minimum of 70% of statewide electric generation be supplied by
40 renewable energy by 2030; that 100% of statewide electric generation be derived
3
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
41 from zero-emission sources by 2040; and, that 9,000 megawatts of offshore wind be
42 installed by 2035.
43
44 II. Vulnerability of the South Fork
45 8. Are you familiar with any studies of the impacts of climate change on coastal
46 areas?
47 8-A. Yes. According to the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
48 (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), coastal systems are especially sensitive to
49 three key drivers related to climate change: sea level, ocean temperature, and ocean
50 acidity.1,2 The AR5 reports that coasts will increasingly experience adverse impacts
51 such as submergence, flooding, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise.3
52 The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), issued in 2018, similarly found
53 that “[c]oasts will confront a more diverse and, to a great extent, unique range of
54 climate stressors and impacts compared with the rest of the country. Rising sea levels
55 will force many more coastal communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding,
1 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 364 (Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White eds., Cambridge University Press 2014),. 2 When anthropogenic carbon dioxide is absorbed by sea water it increases the concentration of hydrogen ions, thereby raising ocean acidity, through a series of chemical reactions. See id. at 190. 3 Id. at 364.
4
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
56 higher storm surges, and associated emergency response costs over the next few
57 decades.”4 Chapters 8 and 18 of the NCA4 – analyzing coastal effects and the
58 Northeast, respectively – are provided at Exhibits __ (CH-02) and __ (CH-03).
59 Additionally, New York’s landmark legislation to address climate change, the
60 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act the (CLCPA), includes findings
61 that “[t]he adverse impacts of climate change include . . . rising sea levels, which
62 exacerbate damage from storm surges and flooding, contribute to coastal erosion and
63 saltwater intrusion, and inundate low-lying areas, leading to the displacement of or
64 damages to the coastal habitat, property, and infrastructure. . . . [and] a decline in
65 freshwater and saltwater fish populations.”5
66 9. What effect could higher sea level have on flooding and extreme weather events?
67 9-A. According to the NCA4, heavy precipitation coupled with sea level rise will
68 produce higher storm surges that exacerbate the risks to coastal communities.6 The
69 NCA4 contemplates a number of scenarios: “higher” scenarios are associated with
70 more warming, and “lower” scenarios involve less warming.7 Under a high scenario,
4 Coastal Effects 2018: Fleming, E., J. Payne, W. Sweet, M. Craghan, J. Haines, J.F. Hart, H. Stiller, and A. Sutton-Grier, Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II 335 (Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018). 5 S. 6599, 2019-2020 Sen., Reg. Sess. (N.Y. 2019), § 1. 6 Fleming (2018), supra note 4 at 323. 7 USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II 1515, 6(Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling,
5
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
71 many coastal communities will be transformed by the second half of the century.8
72 According to projections that incorporate rapid ice loss from Greenland and
73 Antarctica, global sea level rise above eight feet by 2100 is possible.9 If this occurs,
74 the average daily high tide would exceed the current 100-year coastal water level
75 event in most locations in the country – in other words, events that currently have a
76 1% annual chance of occurring will occur every year.10
77 Even under lower scenarios, projections indicate that the frequency, depth, and
78 extent of both high tide and more severe, damaging coastal flooding will rapidly
79 increase in the next few decades.11 Many communities will suffer financial loss from
80 chronic high tide flooding, which will increase costs and decrease property values.12
81 Moreover, the strongest hurricanes are expected to become more intense and more
82 frequent in the Northeast.13
K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018) 8 Fleming (2018), supra note 4 at 323. 9 Id. at 329. 10 Id. 11 Id. 12 Id. at 335. 13 2018: Northeast: Dupigny-Giroux, L.A., E.L. Mecray, M.D. Lemcke-Stampone, G.A. Hodgkins, E.E. Lentz, K.E. Mills, E.D. Lane, R. Miller, D.Y. Hollinger, W.D. Solecki, G.A. Wellenius, P.E. Sheffield, A.B. MacDonald, and C. Caldwell, Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II 692, (Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart eds.,. U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018)
6
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
83 10. Is there any reason to believe that the South Fork is particularly vulnerable to
84 sea level rise?
85 10-A. Yes. Long Island is located in a hotspot along the mid-Atlantic coast that is
86 experiencing sea level rise at three to four times the average global rate.14 Sea level is
87 rising more quickly here because of land subsidence, or sinking, caused by vertical
88 land movement related to the melting of glaciers from the last ice age.15 The
89 intermediate warming scenarios considered by the NCA4 project sea level rise of two
90 to 4.5 feet in the region by 2100.16 However, the worst case scenarios include sea
91 level rise upwards of 11 feet on average by the end of the century.17 It bears noting
92 that on Long Island, large portions of the coast are less than ten feet above average
93 sea level, particularly on the south shore.18
94 The 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information report, and its 2014 supplement,
95 provide projections specific to New York State.19 Sea level is projected to rise along
96 the New York State coastline by 3-8 inches by the 2020s, 9-21 inches by the 2050s,
14 Id. at 689; see also Sallenger Jr, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Nature Climate Change, 2, 884-888 (2012). 15 Dupigny-Giroux (2018), supra note 13 at 689. 16 Id. at 692. 17 Id. 18 Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki, 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information 3 New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA, 2014), 19 See generally id.
7
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
97 and 14-39 inches by the 2080s.20 The ClimAID report further found that as sea levels
98 rise, low-lying coastal communities on Long Island could find themselves “repeatedly
99 under water at high tide, with consequent property damage.”21
100 Regulations promulgated by the New York State Department of Environmental
101 Conservation (DEC) include sea level rise projections for different regions, including
102 Long Island. According to DEC, sea level on Long Island could rise by up to 10
103 inches by the 2020s, 30 inches by the 2050s, 58 inches by the 2080s, and 72 inches by
104 2100, as shown in Table 1 (below).22
105
20 Id. at 9 21 Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, A. DeGaetano, M. O'Grady, S. Hassol, P. Grabhorn eds., 2011. Responding to Climate Change in New York State: The ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation. Technical Report 130 New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA. 2011). 22 N.Y. Comp. Codes R, & Regs, tit. 6, § 490.4(c). These projections do not incorporate recent findings regarding ice melt from Greenland and West Antarctica. See, e.g., A. Aschwanden, M. A. Fahnestock, M. Truffer, D. J. Brinkerhoff, R. Hock, C. Khroulev, R. Mottram, S. A. Khan, Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium , eaav9396 (Sci. Adv. 5, 2019); Holland, Paul R., Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Dutrieux, Pierre, Jenkins, Adrian, Steig, Eric J., 718-724 West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing (Nature Geoscience, 12, 2019).
8
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
106
107 Finally, Long Island is particularly vulnerable to the effects of coastal erosion23
108 given that it is largely formed of sand and gravel deposits left by retreating glaciers.24
109 Moreover, according to the New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report,
110 sea level rise, higher waves, and higher water levels during intense storms will likely
111 exacerbate ongoing coastal erosion, particularly of exposed, ocean-facing
112 shorelines.25
113 11. Does climate change pose threats to coastal communities apart from the risks
114 associated with sea level rise?
115 11-A. According to the NCA4, future ocean warming and ocean acidification are
116 expected under all scenarios considered, and would affect fish stocks and fishing
23 Coastal erosion is the process by which local sea level rise, strong wave action, and coastal flooding wear down or carry away rocks, soils, and/or sands along the coast. See Coastal Erosion, U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, https://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/coastal-flood-risk/coastal-erosion. 24 Rosenzweig (2014), supra note 21 at 122. 25 Gornitz, V. , Oppenheimer, M. , Kopp, R. , Orton, P. , Buchanan, M. , Lin, N. , Horton, R. and Bader, D. , 1439, 76 New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise. (Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 2019)
9
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
117 opportunities available to coastal communities.26 Rising ocean temperatures affect
118 the productivity of marine populations, while shell-forming organisms such as oysters
119 can suffer in more acidic conditions.27
120 The same carbon dioxide emissions resulting from burning fossil fuels that
121 contribute to climate change also contribute to ocean acidification.28 Offshore wind,
122 by allowing the phase-out of fossil fuel generation, can therefore curtail ocean
123 acidification in addition to reducing the sea level rise, storm surge, and ocean
124 warming caused by climate change.
125
126 III. THE NEED FOR A MASSIVE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WIND
127 12. Have any studies been done on the amount of offshore wind power that will be
128 needed to avert the greatest potential impacts of climate change?
129 12-A. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is an international
130 research collaboration that explores how individual countries can reduce their
131 greenhouse gas emissions consistent with limiting global warming to 2oC or less,
132 which requires that industrialized countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80%
133 from 1990 levels by 2050.29,30 The United States DDPP research team developed
26 Dupigny-Giroux (2018), supra note 13 at 689. 27 Id. at 685, 687. 28 Field (2014), supra note 1 at 293-94, 297. 29 Prior to 2015, the most frequently stated goal was to hold global temperature increase to 2oC. The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit “the increase in the global average
10
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
134 four pathways to achieve this goal – high renewables, high nuclear, high carbon
135 capture and sequestration, and mixed energy sources – and analyzed the technical
136 requirements and costs of each.31 All four scenarios require the nearly complete
137 decarbonization of electricity; the carbon intensity of electricity must be reduced by at
138 least 97%, from more than 500 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour (g CO2/kWh) today to
32 139 15 g CO2/kWh or less in 2050.
140 Moreover, achieving any of the four scenarios considered will require building
141 sources of renewable energy, including offshore wind capacity, at a scale that will
142 exceed what has been done before in the United States by several times, every year
143 out to 2050.33 In 2019, wind and solar comprised 9.1% of U.S. electricity
144 generation34; by 2050 that figure must rise to 50.25% under the mixed scenario, and
145 to 78.0% under the high renewables scenario.35 The mixed scenario specifically calls
146 for 333 new megawatts (MW) of offshore wind in 2020 and 1,689 MW in 2025.36
temperature to well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC,” in recognition that impacts such as weather extremes and food insecurity will be significantly greater with 2oC rise in temperature. See Gerrard, Michael B. and Dernbach, John C., 4-5Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States (2019). 30 Id. at 21. 31 Id. at 23, 26-27. 32 Id. at 30. 33 Id. at 463. 34 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “What is U.S. electricity by energy source?” (visited July 6, 2020), https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3. 35 Gerrard, supra note 29 at 465. 36 Id.
11
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
147 The high renewables scenario calls for an additional 304 MW in 2020 and 4,770 MW
148 in 2025.37
149 13. Do New York State and East Hampton have any clean energy targets?
150 13-A. Yes. The 2015 State Energy Plan provides a roadmap for coordinating the
151 Governor’s “Reforming the Energy Vision” initiative, and includes a target of
152 deriving 50% of the state’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030, which the
153 Public Service Commission adopted in 2016.38 By statute, every energy-related
154 action by a state agency must be reasonably consistent with the objectives and
155 strategies articulated in the State Energy Plan.39 Moreover, the state’s 2030 goal was
156 increased and codified in July 2019 when the Governor signed the CLCPA.40 The
157 new law mandates that a minimum of 70% of statewide electric generation be
158 supplied by renewable energy by 2030, and that 100% be derived from zero-emission
159 sources by 2040.41 Additionally, in April 2020 the Governor signed the Accelerated
160 Renewable Energy Growth and Community Benefit Act to streamline the siting of
161 renewable energy facilities in order “to meet the state’s renewable energy goals.”42
37 Id. at 466. 38 Order Adopting a Clean Energy Standard, Case No. 15-E-0302, at 2-3 (N.Y. Pub. Serv. Comm’n. Aug. 1, 2016). 39 N.Y. ENERGY LAW § 6-104(5)(b). 40 See N.Y. PUB. SERV. LAW § 66-p(2)(a), (b). 41 Id. 42 N.Y. EXEC. Law § 94-c (1).
12
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
162 On May 20, 2014 the Town of East Hampton Town Board adopted a resolution
163 setting two clean energy goals: to meet 100% of community-wide electricity
164 consumption with renewable energy by 2020; and to meet the equivalent of 100% of
165 economy-wide energy consumption using renewable energy sources by 2030.43
166 14. Does New York State have any goals specifically for offshore wind?
167 14-A. Yes. The CLCPA requires the development of at least 9,000 MW of offshore
168 wind electricity generation by 2035.44 Moreover, when Governor Cuomo signed the
169 legislation, he announced that he was committing New York to leading the way in
170 developing the largest source of offshore wind power in the country.45 The New
171 York State Offshore Wind Master Plan additionally sets an interim goal of developing
172 2,400 MW of offshore wind energy by 2030, and observes that offshore wind can
173 provide abundant clean energy where the state’s system is most strained: in New
174 York City and on Long Island.46
175 15. What role would the proposed project have in meeting those goals?
43 V.B. 1 Energy Goals for the Town of East Hampton, Res-2014-662 (May 20, 2014), available at https://bit.ly/2PumzhF. 44 NY PUB. SERV. LAW § 66-p(5). 45 “Governor Cuomo Executes the Nation’s Largest Offshore Wind Agreement and Signs Historic Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act,” (July 18, 2019), https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-executes-nations-largest-offshore- wind-agreement-and-signs-historic-climate. 46 New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA), “New York State Offshore Wind Master Plan,” https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/- /media/Files/Publications/Research/Biomass-Solar-Wind/Master-Plan/Offshore-Wind- Master-Plan.pdf, pp. 1, 5.
13
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
176 15-A. The first offshore wind facility in the United States, the Block Island Wind
177 Farm, has a capacity of 30 MW.47 The recently completed Virginia Offshore Wind
178 Project is the country’s second offshore wind farm, with an expected capacity of 12
179 MW.48 If approved, the South Fork Wind Farm, at 132 MW,49 would be the largest
180 such facility in the nation. The proposed project would both advance New York’s
181 climate and clean energy goals and help to bring the United States in line with the
182 DDPP scenarios discussed above, which call for a rapid and massive increase in
183 offshore wind electricity generation.50
184 Additionally, although New York State has contracted for two other wind farms
185 off the coast of Long Island – the Empire Wind project and the Sunrise Wind
186 project51 – neither would come online until the mid-2020s,52 whereas the South Fork
47 Bob Woods, “US has only one offshore wind energy farm, but a $70 billion market is on the way,” (CNBC, Dec. 13, 2019), available at, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/us- has-only-one-offshore-wind-farm-but-thats-about-to-change.html. 48 Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, “Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project” (visited July 6, 2020), https://www.boem.gov/renewable-energy/state-activities/coastal- virginia-offshore-wind-project-cvow. 49 Ørsted, “South Fork Wind Farm – frequently asked questions,” http://dwwind.com/wp- content/uploads/2019/06/SFWF-FAQ-FINAL.pdf. 50 Any argument that the proposed project is too small to make a meaningful difference in achieving these objectives should be rejected. Cf. Massachusetts v. Envtl. Prot. Agency, 549 U.S. 497, 524 (2007) (“Agencies, like legislatures, do not generally resolve massive problems in one fell regulatory swoop.”). 51 NYSERDA, “Offshore Wind Solicitations: 2018 Solicitation” (visited July 6, 2020), https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Programs/Offshore-Wind/Focus- Areas/Offshore-Wind-Solicitations/2018-Solicitation. 52 Ørsted, “Sunrise Wind Wins Bid for Large-Scale New York Offshore Wind Farm” (July 18, 2019), https://us.orsted.com/News-Archive/2019/07/Sunrise-Wind-Wins-Bid-for-
14
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
187 Wind Farm is expected to be operational by the end of 2022.53 The Public Service
188 Commission should embrace the opportunity to encourage this first development;
189 other wind developers will take note. Furthermore, in passing the CLCPA, the
190 Legislature found that New York’s actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will
191 provide a model and encourage other jurisdictions to implement complementary
192 strategies.54 The state now has an opportunity and responsibility to develop offshore
193 wind as a serious alternative to fossil fuels, beginning with the proposed project. The
194 project would similarly advance East Hampton’s clean energy goals by supplying
195 additional energy from a renewable source and could decrease reliance on fossil fuels
196 to meet peak demand.55
197 The Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind projects will have a combined capacity of
198 1,696 MW.56 The South Fork Wind Farm would bring the state’s offshore capacity to
199 1,826 MW—a significant contribution to meeting the state’s goals of achieving 2,400
200 MW of offshore wind energy by 2030, and 9,000 MW by 2035.
201
Large-Scale-New-York-Offshore-Wind-Farm; Equinor, “Frequently asked questions – Empire Wind” (visited July 6, 2020), https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we- do/empirewind/frequently-asked-questions-empire-wind.html. 53 Ørsted & Eversource, “About South Fork Wind” (visited July 6, 2020), https://southforkwind.com/about-south-fork-wind. 54 S. 6599, 2019-2020 Sen., Reg. Sess. (N.Y. 2019), § 3. 55 See Christopher Walsh, Emergency Generators for Peak Power Periods, THE EAST HAMPTON STAR, July 3, 2019, available at, https://easthamptonstar.com/201973/emergency-generators-peak-power-periods. 56 See NYSERDA, supra note 44.
15
Case No. 18-T-0604 Testimony of Cullen Howe
202 16. Does this conclude your pre-filed direct testimony?
203 13-A. Yes, it does.
16