A Cross-Cutting View of Demographic Policy Type

A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period Forewords

You have in your hands the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community’s three-part summary of work in the field of demography during the current legislative period: policy and research, in analogue and digital form, in specific subject areas and across disciplines.

Demography is one of the oldest social sciences, and the size of its target group is impressive: it includes the entire population, from the youngest to the oldest. The Fed- eral Government’s demographic strategy, ʻEvery Age Countsʼ, launched a broad-based examination of demographic challenges and opportunities in our country. During this legislative period, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community focused on achieving the strategy’s goals through intensive dialogue in the regions and extensive knowledge transfer from theory to practice. Because Germany also held the Presi- dency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2020, intensive dis- © Bundesregierung/Kugler cussions with our European neighbours also played a large role.

This is reflected in the two demography volumes of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and the Federal Institute for Population Research. In these volumes, you will find a wealth of practical examples and research findings, as well as a special chapter on preparing for future demographic developments as the baby boomer generation ages and on the relevance of population data during the Covid-19 pandemic. The volumes look back at trends over the past ten years and ahead at those to come in the next decade.

As the sponsor of the programmes Work4Germany and Tech4Germany, I am especially pleased that the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community was one of the hosts for the first group of programme participants and in this way helped the demography report to appear in digital form and thus make demography accessible online as well.

I invite you to find out more about important demographic issues with the help of graphics, videos, links and other information both online and offline, and I wish you enjoyable and interesting reading.

Prof. Dr Helge Braun, MdB/Member of the Bundestag Head of the Federal Chancellery and Federal Minister for Special Tasks

2 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Developing strategic approaches is one of the central tasks of every Federal Govern- ment. The broader the range of issues, the more complex the strategic architecture which must be created in response. The broad scope of the Federal Government’s demographic strategy is already apparent in its title, ʻEvery Age Countsʼ.

A population of more than 83 million includes a multitude of complex constellations: young and old, married and single, employed and retired, those who are mobile and those who are settled – each of us belongs to this population, with our needs and desires for social cohesion, functioning infrastructure and viable economic and finance systems. All of this is part of a fragile system of interdependencies and conflicts which must be brought into balance and resolved.

A carefully thought-out and precisely coordinated strategy lays the essential ground- © BMI/Bertrand work for this effort. But without practical implementation, such a strategy would remain just an ambitious plan.

During the current legislative period, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community has made implementation a priority. As lead ministry, it has been active at all levels and across all areas of action within the scope of the strategy: engaging in local community dialogues on demography in north and south, working with other federal ministries to prepare the public service for future demographic developments, and discussing with our European neighbours the many things we have in common when it comes to population trends in Europe.

The scientific discipline of demography can see – at least for a certain span of time – into the future and offer models and calculations to prepare us for current trends and future developments. Population growth due to immigration, population ageing due to longer life expectancy and low birth rates, regional differences in prosperity – none of these is unique to Ger- many. Supplying precise, science-based analyses in place of perceived notions is the task of the Federal Institute for Popula- tion Research, located in Wiesbaden. The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated how relevant and valuable demographic research can be, for example in comparing hospital capacities to the percentage of residents with pre-existing medical conditions in different regions.

On this topic and many others, you will find comprehensive explanations and practical examples in these two volumes pro- duced by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, on its website and on the website of the Federal Institute for Population Research.

I wish you a pleasant journey into the world of demography!

Dr Markus Kerber State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 3 4 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Contents

I. Understanding and shaping demographic developments: together and with a focus on opportunities! 6

1. Demographic development or ‘facts versus fake news’ 8

2. Equivalent living conditions – Commission mandate and pillar of the demographic strategy 14

3. ...and beyond: challenges and opportunities in almost all areas of life, or ‘The Federal Government’s demographic strategy’ 16

4. ‘Every Age Counts’ as a political mandate: the management aspirations of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community 20

II. A cross-cutting view of demography – examples of national implementation 26

1. Together on site in the dialogue on demography: municipality – federal state – Federal Government 28

2. Working in interministerial and federal-state groups – change is taking place across disciplines and with different impacts on regions 32

3. Demographic Portal with a new look: modern and responsive design to support the launch of the ‘federal state months’ 34

4. Policy advice: tailor-made in all directions 38

5. Demographic security on the labour market: the public service takes the lead 42

III. The emergence of a European network 46

1. Initiative at EU level 48

2. Bilateral exchange 50

3. Not together and yet very close: virtual and ministerial at EU level 52

IV. Demography – a global issue 54

1. United Nations Commission on Population and Development 56

2. Looking to Asia and beyond 60

3. A portal reaches out into the world – with a suitcase packed with know-how! 64

V. The Covid-19 pandemic – editing and communicating population structure data 66

VI. Demography 4.0 or ‘Every age retold’ 72

VII. Looking to the future 76

1. Continue to apply tried-and-tested concepts 78

2. Building on global developments and setting specific accents 80

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 5 I. Understanding and shaping demographic developments: together and with a focus on opportunities!

6 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: pixelfit/E+/Getty Images

Demographic change will significantly alter the conditions As part of its demographic policy, the Federal Government for developing prosperity and quality of life in Germany in aims to create the best possible foundation for strengthen- the coming years and decades. Our society is getting older ing economic growth potential and maintaining the level of and in the long run at least is likely to become smaller. It prosperity for future generations, and the conditions for will also become more diverse, also as a result of immigra- this are more favourable than ever before. They will be tion. Processes related to the population are crucial for all briefly described below and supported by facts and figures. important areas of life: the concentration of the population After all, politics must be understandable and transparent. in certain regions and labour markets, housing and com- And this is also the best way to counter false claims or fake muting, demand for school education, demand for and use news which are also seen in conjunction with demographic of digital infrastructures, healthcare services and much policy aspects, for instance, with regard to birth rates or more. These factors, for their part, also determine how long migration movements. It is true that ‘fake news’ has always and how healthy people live, where they settle and how existed and always will. In times of social media, when lies many children they (want to) have. and false reports can spread all over the world in a matter of seconds, however, it is important to prevent and counter these with determination and to provide science-based facts with an even greater reach.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 7 1. Demographic development or ‘facts versus fake news’

Since reunification, Germany has grown from 79.9 million people in 1990 to 83.2 million today (as of 2019).

The expectation expressed in the Federal Government’s 2011 Between 2011 and 2019, around 13.4 million people moved Demography Report, i.e. that the negative population growth to Germany, whilst 9 million left the country. Around two trend observed since 2003 will continue and intensify in the thirds of immigrants came from European countries (includ- coming years, has thus not been confirmed. The migration ing the Russian Federation, excluding Turkey). The migration movements from (eastern and southern) European countries balance (inflows minus outflows, also termed net immigra- have been primary contributors since 2011. What’s more, tion) hence amounted to 4.4 million people during this large numbers of people seeking protection were recorded, period. A net total of 2.6 million people moved to Germany especially in 2015 and 2016. Even though immigration from from European countries, including around 2.2 million from non-European countries has often been the focus of atten- the EU. Almost 1.7 million net immigrants came from Asia tion in recent years, the vast majority of immigrants to Ger- and a good 300,000 from Africa. many came from Europe, except for the years 2015 and 2016.

Fig. 1: Net migration between Germany and world regions in the period from 2011 to 2019

Europe (including Russia, excluding Turkey) 2.6

Asia (including Turkey) 1.7

Africa 0.3

America 0.1

Australia 0.0

Unknown origin and/or destination region -0.3

Net inbound and outbound migration in millions

Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

8 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Since 2012, the birth rate in Germany has also risen noticea- At the same time, more and more people are living longer bly – albeit at a low level – and in 2016 reached 1.59 children with better physical and mental health. At present per woman, the highest level since 1972. In 2019, the birth (2017/2918 mortality table), life expectancy for newborn girls rate was slightly lower at 1.54 children per woman, but still is 83.4 years, for newborn boys 78.6 years and is hence about above the long-term average. The increase in birth rate was five years higher for girls and about seven years higher for seen among women of both foreign and German nationality. boys than in 1990.

Fig. 2: Life expectancy at birth in West and East Germany* (1990/1992 to 2017/2019) Life expectancy in years 85

65 1990/1992 1995/1997 2000/2002 2005/2007 2010/2012 2017/2019 Men/West Women/West Men/East Women/East

*from 1999/2001 without Berlin in each case Data source: Federal Statistical Office, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

A high life expectancy, along with a persistently low birth cantly lower in the majority of these countries. This birth rate despite an increase in recent years, characterises the rate would be needed for the child generation to maintain process of demographic ageing, which Germany has in the parent generation. A birth rate permanently below this common with most industrialised Western nations. The level without immigration would hence result in the next birth rate is currently below 2.1 children per woman in all generation becoming smaller than the previous generation. European and North American countries and even signifi-

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 9 Fig. 3: Birth rate (children per woman) in world regions and selected countries (2015 to 2020)

Niger 7.0 Somalia 6.1 Nigeria 5.4 AFRICA 4.4 WORLD 2.5 OCEANIA 2.4 India 2.2 ASIA 2.2 LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN 2.0 France 1.9 United States 1.8 NORTH AMERICA 1.8 China 1.7 EUROPE 1.6 Germany 1.6 Japan 1.4 Italy 1.3 Singapore 1.2 South Korea 1.1

Data source: UN, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

This process poses challenges that result mainly from a be it because they expect better employment opportunities changed relationship between younger and older popula- elsewhere or because they want more access to education tions, for example, on labour markets and in social security and infrastructure facilities of all kinds for themselves and systems. And this is particularly felt where younger people their children. in particular leave their homes for another part of Germany,

Fig. 4: Share of old population in selected countries and world regions (2020) Ratio of older people (65+) to working age population (20 to under 65 years)

Japan 1 : 1.9 Italy 1 : 2.5 France 1 : 2.7 Germany 1 : 2.7

United 1 : 3.1 EUROPE 1 : 3.1 United States of 1 : 3.5 China 1 : 5.4 Kingdom America

ASIA 1 : 6.8 India 1 : 8.8 AFRICA 1 : 13 Nigeria 1 : 15.8

Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

10 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Fig. 5: Population by age group in world regions and selected countries (2020)

Nigeria AFRICA India WORLD

2.7 3.5 6.6 9.3 35.3 33.3 43.1 54.1 45.8 50.7 58.1 57.4

LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN ASIA United States NORTH AMERICA

9.0 8.9 16.6 16.8 32.1 31.2 24.8 24.4

59.0 60.0 58.6 58.8

China EUROPE Germany Japan

12.023.4 19.1 21.1 21.7 18.9 28.4 17.0

64.6 59.8 59.4 54.6

65 years and olderShare in percent: Under 20 years 20 to 64 years 65 years and olderShare

Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

Fig. 6: Life expectancy at birth in world regions and selected countries (2015 to 2020)

Japan 84 Switzerland 84 Italy 83 France 83 Germany 81 United States 79 OCEANIA 78 EUROPE 78 China 77 LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN 75 ASIA 73 WORLD 72 India 69 AFRICA 63 Nigeria 54 Lesotho 54 Central African Republic 53

Data source: UN, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 11 Migratory movements in the form of immigration, but one hand, to increased migration to predominantly rural especially internal migration within Germany determine the areas. What’s more, the still positive migration rates of distribution of people in the country in terms of numbers people aged between18 and 29, the so-called training and and age. Besides predominantly rural regions, east German job migrants, to cities are no longer as high as before, and regions were particularly hit by emigration in the past. at the same time there is a growing trend away from cities Between 1991 and 2019, for example, a total of 3.9 million among those aged between 30 to 49, who are also known people moved from east to west. On balance, the eastern as family migrants. And, finally, since 2017, more people German states (excluding Berlin) lost a total of 1.2 million have been moving from the west to the east than in the people to emigration to the west. However, it should also opposite direction. Some of them return to their home be noted that a trend reversal has also been observed in the regions. area of internal migration since 2011. This is due, on the

Fig. 7: Migration between West and East Germany* (1991 to 2019)

Persons (in thousands) 250

200

150

Migration loss, East Germany 100

0 19912000 2009 2018 Moves from East to West Moves from West to East

* in each case without Berlin Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

That being said, the distribution and age composition of the tion are already being felt today: While the average age in population in Germany’s regions continue to vary consider- Germany in 2019 was 44.5 years, five districts or urban dis- ably. They add to the considerable disparities that already tricts recorded an average age of over 50 years, including exist within Germany, both in terms of regional income and the urban district of Suhl with the highest average age employment opportunities and in terms of ensuring mobili- (50.8 years) of all districts and urban districts in Germany. ty and access to services of general interest. Structurally On the other hand, the average age was less than 41 years strong regions also benefit from the influx of qualified in six districts or urban districts, including the urban district people from Germany and abroad. Structurally weak of Heidelberg with the lowest average age (40.4 years). regions usually do not attract these people while at the 36 out of every 100 people aged 20 to 64 in Germany were same time even losing younger, often well-educated over 65. In the east, the corresponding figure of 46 is signi people. The consequences of these trends for age distribu- ficantly higher than in the west, where it is 35 (in each case

12 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy excluding Berlin). This has a corresponding impact on ser- i vices of general interest. The Federal Ministry of the Interi- or, Building and Community, with its community department and in its capacity as coordinator of demographic policy, addresses the issue of equivalent living conditions from several perspectives, see, in particular, chapter I.2.

The Federal Institute for Population Research is a federal departmental research institution under the responsi- Fig. 8: Average age in districts and urban districts (2019) bility of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community. It conducts basic research on the Rank Urban district or district, resp. Average age causes and consequences of demographic change and is 1 Heidelberg, urban district 40.4 also active in the field of policy advice. More on the 2 Freiburg im Breisgau, urban district 40.6 Federal Institute for Population Research can be found 3 Offenbach am Main, urban district 40.7 in chapter I.4. 4 Frankfurt am Main, urban district 40.8 5 Darmstadt, urban district 40.8

14 Cologne, urban district 41.6

18 Berlin, urban district 41.8 i 21 Mansfeld-Südharz, district 42.1 The report by the Federal Institute for Population Research is part of a three-part résumé by the demo- 34 Dessau-Roßlau, urban district 42.6 graphic policy of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, 397 Greiz, district 50.2 Building and Community in the 19th legislative period. The first part consists of this report which specifically 398 Mansfeld-Südharz, district 50.2 addresses the formats and activities pursued and adopt- 399 Altenburger Land, district 50.3 ed by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and 400 Dessau-Roßlau, urban district 50.4 Community in implementing the Federal Government’s 401 Suhl, urban district 50,8 demographic strategy. The interfaces with numerous specialist topics are also addressed, in particular, the Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations: Federal Institute for Population Research significance of demographic change for the public service. The second, research-based part is the report by the Federal Institute for Population Research with a focus on extensive data analysis and editing as well as With regard to the details of demographic development, facts on demographic development. The Federal Insti- reference is made to the exhaustive report issued by the tute for Population Research thereby addresses the Federal Institute for Population Research that provides val- development not only in Germany, but also in a Europe- uable impulses for future policymaking based on scientific an comparison as well as in an international context. It research. emphasises selected aspects (such as migration between urban and rural spaces) against a time horizon of up to 2040. The third part finally offers the core elements of the demographic policy of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community for the first time in digital format; more on this can be found in chapter VI and at www.demografiepolitik.de/4you/en.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 13 2. Equivalent living conditions – Commission mandate and pillar of the demographic strategy

Where do I feel comfortable? What about access to goods and services? How can I help shape the quality of life in my municipality? Can I continue to live in my familiar surroundings when I’m old?

These issues were most recently addressed specifically by On the basis of the final reports drawn up by the Commis- the ‘Equivalent Living Conditions’ Commission which was sion’s six technical working groups, the Federal Minister of appointed by the Federal Cabinet on 18 July 2018. As the the Interior, Building and Community, together with his centrepiece of the Federal Government’s community policy, co-chairs, the Federal Minister of Food and Agriculture and it was expected to develop recommendations on how we the Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, can improve local living conditions against the background Women and Youth, drew up proposals for the further of demographic change. The guiding principle was to open development of active structural and, above all, regional up real opportunities for everyone to have access to educa- policy. The report titled ‘Unser Plan für Deutschland – tion, work, housing, prosperity, sport and infrastructure, be Gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse überall’ (Our Plan for it in Gelsenkirchen, the Lausitz region or Hamburg. Germany – Equivalent Living Conditions Everywhere) www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publika- tionen/themen/heimat-integration/schlussfolgerun- gen-kom-gl.html was presented to the Federal Cabinet on 10 July 2019. As one of the four pillars of the demographic i strategy, the promotion of equivalent living conditions has Quote from the Cabinet decision to establish the long been a focus of the Federal Government and hence of Commission dated 18 July 2018: the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu nity. “On the basis of a common understanding of equivalent living conditions, the Commission aims to develop recommendations for action with a view to different “When differences in living regional developments and demographic change in conditions lead to inequality, Germany.” our policies must compensate for this.”

Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer

Source: www.bmi.bund.de

14 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Fig. 9: Demographic strategy of the Federal Government (equality of living conditions)

For more prosperity and quality of life for all generations

Ensuring sound funding Promoting equality of Strengthening economic Promoting social and for the state’s ability to living conditions in the growth potential societal cohesion act and for reliable social regions security systems

∙ Potential for ∙ Family as a community ∙ Economic strength and ∙ Sustainability of securing skilled innovation potential of rural public nances workers at home • A society t for young people and urban regions and abroad • Reliability of social • Self-determined life in old age • Promoting infrastructure and security systems • Good education as facilitating the adaptation of an investment in the • An inclusive society facilities of general interest • Attractive and future modern public • Civic engagement • Promoting sustainable urban service • Productivity development and inclusive through innovation • Health promotion and urban societies and investment sustainable care in the event of illness, need for care and for people with dementia

Source and diagram: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

One of the Commission’s recommendations in its conclu- i sions is to support all structurally weak regions – both rural Background to the Commission’s recommendation: and urban – throughout Germany. In this context, the joint task of ‘Improving Regional Economic Structures’ (GRW) is After German unification, regional structural policy was of particular importance due to its high funding volume of geared specifically to merging east and west. When Sol- 1.2 billion euro annually. In order to address demographic idarity Pact II expired at the end of 2019, which com- change in the context of this funding measure, a demo- bined the majority of the Federal Government’s invest- graphic component will be included in the underlying indi- ment measures in the east German states, a need for cator system. In this way, it will be possible to adequately action arose. However, structurally weak regions in west take into account future economic development and Germany are also facing economic challenges. In view employment potential in the region as well as the impor- of these two developments, the coalition partners tance of demographic change, including migration, for agreed in the coalition agreement for the 19th legisla- structural policy. On 28 October 2020, the Federal Cabinet tive period to create a new all-German assistance approved the draft law of the Federal Ministry for Econom- system for structurally weak regions. ic Affairs and Energy amending the law on the joint task of ‘Improving Regional Economic Structures’.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 15 3. ...and beyond: challenges and opportunities in almost all areas of life, or ‘The Federal Government’s demographic strategy’

Facilitating equivalent living conditions in the regions and the associated fields of action are an important part of the Federal Government’s demographic strategy.

That being said, the demographic strategy that was pre- trends. This strategy therefore identifies all fields of action sented in 2012 and updated in 2015, titled ‘Every Age that are relevant when it comes to shaping demographic Counts’ is comprehensively and actively geared towards change at a political level. exploiting the opportunities presented by population

Fig. 10: Demographic policy of the Federal Government

Demographic strategy ‘Every Age Counts’

Start of working Further development of group process demographic strategy

Adoption of a First demography Demographic Further implementation of demographic strategy summit strategy conference the demographic strategy

1992 2009 2011 2012 2013 20172015 since 2018

Parliament: Demographic report Second demography Third demography establishment of a summit summit study commission

Result report of the working groups

Demographic policy bottom line

Source and diagram: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

16 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Aware of the demographic challenges, the Federal Govern- The core element of the strategy is comprehensive and ment decided in its 2009 coalition agreement to develop a ongoing dialogue with stakeholders from federal states and cross-ministerial demographic strategy by 2012. The basis local authorities, social partners, associations, business, sci- for political decision-makers was the demographic report ence and civil society who are involved in shaping this dia- presented in autumn 2011 which was the first of its kind to logue, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dia- comprehensively present Germany’s past and foreseeable logprozess/Dialogprozess.html. A working group process future demographic developments. According to this with many relevant stakeholders was therefore triggered on report, measures had already been taken in all important the basis of the strategy. Finally, by the end of the 18th leg- policy areas with a view to demographic change. It also islative period in 2017, ten working groups addressed all underlined the need for an overarching policy geared to areas of life and policymaking affected by demographic strategic objectives. On this basis, the Federal Government change, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dia- presented its demographic strategy ‘Every Age Counts’ in logprozess/Arbeitsgruppen/arbeitsgruppen.html. spring 2012, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Service/Pub- likationen/2012/demografiestrategie-der-bundesregierung. pdf.

Source: HenningRésumé Schacht by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 17 A cabinet decision of 14 January 2015 mandated the Feder- The key element of this updated demographic strategy is al Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community with the definition of four overall objectives, i,e,: the further development of the Federal Government’s demographic strategy from the previous legislative period l Strengthening economic growth potential under the heading ‘For more prosperity and quality of life for all generations’ (Für mehr Wohlstand und Lebensqual- l Promoting social cohesion ität aller Generationen) with the participation of the ministries. This strategy specifically fleshed out the objectives l Promoting equivalent living conditions and their connection with the strategy’s fields of action, including the results of the working groups, it outlined the l Ensuring sound funding for the state’s ability to act and progress achieved so far in shaping demographic change for reliable social security systems and presented the priority measures of the Federal Govern- ment in the 18th legislative period. Sub-objectives and fields of action were then assigned to each of these objectives in as far as these sub-objectives and fields of action require political measures in order to achieve the objectives. The four-pillar diagram below illustrates this:

Fig. 11: Demographic strategy of the Federal Government

For more prosperity and quality of life for all generations

Source and diagram: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

18 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy The fields of action and objectives are not statically www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dialogproz- arranged side by side, but are interdependent and interact ess/Arbeitsgruppen/ergebnisbericht-arbeitsgruppen-2017. with each other. This means that changes in one or more pdf fields of action of one pillar may directly or indirectly impact topics of another pillar. It is, for instance, clear that widespread access to educational institutions and well- trained skilled workers (pillar 1) help to stabilise our social security system (pillar 4) through good opportunities on the labour market. Conversely, a decline in the number of people doing voluntary work (pillar 2) may well be an issue in certain regions in Germany where mobility services are only available to a limited extent and are replaced by pri- vate drivers, such as pensioners doing voluntary youth work.

The revised demographic strategy was presented to the Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community Federal Cabinet on 2 September 2015. www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publika- The implementation of the demographic strategy, together tionen/themen/heimat-integration/demografie/demografi- with partners from the federal states, municipalities, busi- estrategie-weiterentwicklung.html ness, academia and society, continues to this day. An intergenerational policy that is adapted to the respective life sit- With its Demographic Policy Assessment (Demografiepoli- uation while recognising and facilitating development tische Bilanz der Bundesregierung) as of the end of the opportunities for people of all ages at an early stage is the 18th legislative period, the Federal Government finally pre- primary means of orientation to this end. The strategy is to sented in 2017 the key trends in thirteen policy areas for a large extent implemented by the respective line minis- shaping demographic change as well as important meas- tries. For example, measures to reconcile work and family ures taken by the Federal Government during the legislative life or policy measures for senior citizens are initiated by period. the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth, and labour market policy measures by It thereby referred to the updated demographic strategy the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. These from 2015 and the objectives defined there. The assess- ministries are also responsible for the respective legislation. ment concludes that the challenges posed by demographic The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu- change will continue to increase with the expected retire- nity has special responsibility for civil service law as well as ment of the baby boomers from working life beginning in for homeland policy, urban development, housing and the mid-2020s, and that the Federal Government will building as well as for the digitalisation of the federal therefore continue to strengthen and interlink its ministeri- administration. First and foremost, however, the Federal al activities and cooperation with other stakeholders in Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community is respon- society. The results of the working groups were also pub- sible as coordinator and initiator at the interface of the lished. fields of action covered by the strategy. Where the different areas of life intersect, the ministry thus has a wide scope www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publika- for action, which it makes use of in different ways. tionen/themen/heimat-integration/demografie/demo- grafiebilanz.html

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 19 4. ‘Every Age Counts’ as a political mandate: the management aspirations of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

As mentioned earlier, many of these areas of life are closely interlinked, so that changes in one area also affect other areas to varying degrees.

The current increase in birth rate, for instance, is considered This is where the possibilities and achievements of digitali- to be not just a result of immigration, but also a direct con- sation can open doors, so that educational offers, for sequence of family policy measures, such as parental allow- instance, can also be used in remote regions in virtual for- ance and other measures to reconcile family and work, mats or telemedicine cave save having to travel to a doc- www.bib.bund.de/Publikation/2013/Wirkungen-des- tor’s office in a distant city. Proactive demographic policy Elterngelds-auf-Einkommen-und-Fertilitaet.html. And must address all these issues. where there are more offers for preventive health care exist and where there is a more employee-friendly working envi- To this end, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building ronment, we are likely to find higher numbers of skilled and Community has continued and intensified tried-and- workers. Most recently and even today, the events sur- tested forms of cooperation at the interface with the poli- rounding the Covid-19 pandemic have clearly shown us cies of the different ministries in the 19th legislative period how great these dependencies are. An interconnected polit- and has at the same time developed and implemented new ical approach that includes all areas of life is the only way formats. What all formats have in common is that they to overcome this as well as future crises. Chapter V pro- enable and promote a high degree of communication and/ vides more details. or networking with and between a large number of stakeholders. Moreover, the expansion of the responsibilities of All in all, the developments described in chapter I – regard- the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi- less of whether they are significant or only just beginning ty to include the topics of homeland, equivalent living con- to materialise – must be seen to be positive from a demo- ditions, urban development as well as building and housing graphic perspective. Increasingly high life expectancy repre- – beyond the ministry’s previous responsibility for public sents enormous potential: for each individual, but also for service employment law – has opened up further possibili- the economy and society of a country and hence for its ties for the ministry when it comes to implementing the prosperity. But one should not forget that the existence and demographic strategy. Every effort should be made to availability of infrastructures alone are not enough to main- ensure the ongoing exploitation of these possibilities in tain and strengthen our economic power and prosperity on cooperation with the stakeholders mentioned in the strate- the one hand and social cohesion on the other. A more gy: At Federal Government level with the Federal Chancel- comprehensive perspective is needed instead. The only way lery and the ministries, as well as with the federal states to create real opportunities and conditions for participation and their demography commissioners, as model projects in in society exist if each and every individual has access to cooperation with districts and municipalities directly on and can use technical and social – especially education – site, and also with representatives from academia and infrastructures. research as well as from civil society.

20 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy The implementation measures in this context primarily respect. This facilitates and strengthens communications serve the following four objectives: between the Federal Institute for Population Research and the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi- l Enabling a broad transfer of knowledge from science to ty as well as with other federal ministries and political politics stakeholders in Berlin. l Initiating the exchange of experience with practitioners on site i Further details on the Federal Institute for Population l Creating a European demographic policy network Research, in particular, on the individual research areas, can be found at: www.bib.bund.de. l Strengthening international cooperation platforms

Broad transfer of knowledge from science to politics

Demographic policy, just like policy in general, should not be based solely on personal perception, perceived trends or anecdotal narratives. Instead, demographic policy should be evidence-based. This means that all decisions and measures to manage demographic change should be based on facts, figures and the results of science and research. Suita- ble instruments to this end include, for instance, conduct- ing population studies, evaluating population structure data, exchanging information on scenarios, learning from comparisons, clarifying basic mechanisms of the interaction of population and social processes, and evaluating the Source: Isabel Pavia/Moment/Getty Images impact of political measures and programmes. This is the only way to communicate these measures to a broad population who will then accept and support them.

The Federal Government has been investing in basic research in population science for decades. More than 60 experts at the Federal Institute for Population Research in Wiesbaden are currently working on various research topics in the fields of fertility, mortality and migration in order to provide the public with up-to-date facts and trends on demographic development. The Federal Institute for Popu- lation Research also collects its own data and engages in national and international exchange with scientific partners. At the same time, the institute comprehensively advises the Federal Government and the federal states on research topics. The Federal Government not only invests in basic research, but also in policy advice. The opening of the institute’s Berlin office in 2018 was an important step in this

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 21 i Informed administrative action is the only way to generate FReDA – The Lighthouse Project comprehensible and credible results. Consequently, staff of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi- The most important step towards securing demographic ty, whose work is related to the topic of demography, are research, both by the Federal Institute for Population also to be informed in various events about current Research and by academic research in Germany as a research topics of the Federal Institute for Population whole, is the promotion of the FReDA data infrastruc- Research. ture – the family demographic panel. FReDA stands for ‘Family Research and Demographic Analysis’. Under the auspices of the Federal Institute for Population Research, FReDA will conduct a survey programme Exchanging experience with practitioners on site starting in 2021 where a large representative sample of persons aged between 18 and 49 and resident in Ger- Demographic policy should not only consider facts and fig- many will be surveyed every six months on a wide range ures, but also have a realistic picture of the living environ- of family demographic topics, such as the wish to have ment of the people in mind. It is also important to consider children, compatibility problems, the relationship with the experience of the stakeholders who, on the one hand, one’s own parents and the use of reproductive medicine. face the challenges of change every day and also imple- The questionnaires include ‘open modules’ that will ment political measures on the other. Demographic change enable all researchers in Germany to contribute their is taking place on the ground in the municipalities. This is own questions in order to address their specific research where the impact on the population is being directly felt, interests. The data collected will be made available to and where new concepts and approaches to solutions to the scientific community without undue delay. guarantee the provision of public services and secure the The Federal Institute for Population Research will also quality of life have been developed over a number of years. provide regular and timely information directly to It is not always possible to present to federal policymakers policymakers regarding the most important results from the knowledge gained and pre-existing solutions from one FReDA. FReDA fills an important gap left following region of Germany or to pass them on to another region. expiration of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu- and pairfam (Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships nity therefore considers itself to be particularly called upon and Family Dynamics) survey programmes, thereby to act as a kind of demographic pilot at the interface of all securing the basis for demographic research in Germany demographic issues and to interconnect people and pro- beyond 2021. jects.

The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu- European demographic policy network nity is particularly committed to passing on in several formats the knowledge gained specifically through the Demographic change is transforming not only Germany, research and advice provided by the Federal Institute for but all member states of the European Union, albeit not Population Research. The focus is on dialogue between always in the same way or at the same pace. All Member practitioners and academia, which for its part can learn to States will see their population ageing in the coming dec- translate laboratory results into reality through meetings ades, and many member states will also be confronted with with stakeholder groups and through coordination a shrinking population. Both within the European Union processes. and within the member states themselves, considerable regional differences sometimes already exist in the areas of population development, children and family, internal and

22 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy external migration, ageing and social systems, the economy ning issues. The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and the labour market as well as education. It is to be and Community believes that much can be achieved by expected that some of these differences will even intensify exchanging experience across national borders and, if pos- in the future. While scientists and researchers are very well sible, creating synergies. Where common positions are interconnected throughout Europe, any exchange on issues found, these can also be asserted more forcefully in relation of demographic change at EU-wide political level has been to international partners. The aim is hence to create a Euro- limited to specific individual aspects, such as regional plan- pean demographic policy network.

Fig. 12: EU Member States and their population in millions (as of 2020)

Country code:

(AT) Austria (BE) Belgium (BG) Bulgaria (CY) Cyprus (CZ) Czech Republic FI (DE) Germany 5.5 (DK) Denmark (EE) Estonia SE (ES) Spain 10.3 (FI) Finland (FR) France EE (EL) Greece 1.3 (HR) Croatia (HU) Hungary LV (IE) Ireland 1.9 (IT) Italy (LT) Lithuania DK LT (LU) Luxembourg 5.8 2.8 (LV) Latvia IE (MT) Malta 5.0 (NL) Netherlands (PL) Poland NL PL (PT) Portugal 17.4 38.0 (RO) Romania DE (SE) Sweden BE 83.2 11.5 CZ (SI) Slovenia LU 10.7 SK (SK) Slovakia 0.6 5.5 AT HU FR 8.9 9.8 RO 67.1 HR 19.3 IT SI 4.1 60.2 2.1 BG 7.0

PT ES 10.3 47.3 EL 10.7 CY 0.9 MT 0.5

Source: EUROSTAT, map: Federal Institute for Population Research

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 23 Strengthening international cooperation platforms tion and are trying out new ways of managing this development. Here it is important to exchange experience and Demographic developments in countries outside the EU learn from each other. In many African countries, on the can have a direct and indirect impact on EU countries, for other hand, there are many more young people than old, example, when it comes to migration flows. Past experience and ways are being explored to harness the so-called shows that migration out of non-European countries can demographic dividend for economic development. Germa- become inbound migration to the European continent, with ny can actively contribute its experience with demogra- implications for population size and composition in the phy-orientated policy design to the international debate. In respective countries. Demographic trends in countries out- light of the interactions between demographic develop- side Europe are generally diverse: Whilst the population ments within and outside the EU, the Federal Ministry of continues to rise in many African countries, more and more the Interior, Building and Community sees it as its duty to countries are seeing stagnant or declining population num- strengthen the international dimension of German demo- bers. Like Germany, Asian countries, such as Japan, Singa- graphic policy and to clearly identify references to Germa- pore and Thailand, face the challenges of an ageing popula- ny.

Fig. 13: Continents according to current population development

Population 2020 Population growth 2020

1 billion 500 million 100 million High Moderate No inhabitants inhabitants inhabitants growth growth growth

Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

24 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Fig. 14: Migration between and within world regions in the period from 2010 to 2015*

* Data are only available in 5-year periods. Data for the 2015 to 2020 period will be available in 2021/2022. Data source: Abel, Guy J. “Estimates of global bilateral migration flows by gender between 1960 and 2015.” International Migration Rewiew 52.3 (2018): 809-852, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

With a view to the four objectives described earlier, the i Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community Migration processes between the world regions are has developed appropriate formats to implement the Fed- mapped. The colour indicates the direction, the width eral Government’s demographic strategy. These formats are their size. Example: Between 2010 and 2015, around hence taking place at national (federal, federal-state and 1.1 million people migrated from south Asia to Europe, municipal) level and in the European framework as well as and another 3 million to west Asia. at international level.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 25 II. A cross-cutting view of demography – examples of national implementation

26 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Westend61/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 27 1. Together on site in the dialogue on demography: municipality – federal state – Federal Government

The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community as a demographic pilot – this is the idea already mentioned earlier that underlies the format of demographic dialogue.

After the working group process in the last legislative expert forum to make their experiences and knowledge vis- period was completed, cooperation with the design part- ible and to exchange them directly with each other. ners, i.e. the representatives of all levels of government, the economy, the social partners, academia and civil society, What helps and what hinders the implementation of new had to be continued in a suitable form, as announced in the concepts? Where do regulations and standards need to be Federal Government’s Demographic Policy Assessment at more flexible? How can successful cooperation between the end of the 18th legislative period. Shortly after that, the municipalities be organised? This wealth of knowledge and idea of holding demographic dialogue with a focus on experience must be leveraged and made visible. That is why ‘Strengthening regions – reducing disparities’ emerged. it is mainly the practitioners who have their say, learning from each other, sharing knowledge and passing on experi- This dialogue was implemented in workshops that were ences. Insight will be gained how the respective topics and held locally in individual events took place locally in the fields of action should be rethought and implemented in federal states and/or regions and supported by the federal view of demographic development, how the framework for states and/or other design partners. The aim was to address stakeholders in the municipalities must be designed in light the topics on a broader and up-to-date basis, so that indi- of demographic change, and how standards and norms vidual aspects could be addressed in greater depth in the must be adapted in order to enable new, alternative respective workshops. Another aim was to incorporate approaches to solutions that will guarantee services of gen- more practical examples into the implementation of the eral interest and secure the quality of life. The results will demographic strategy and to involve the design partners in be made available to other federal states and municipalities this dialogue process. and, if necessary, a need for action will be identified for the Federal Government and the federal states. The series of events which has been rolled out across several regions of Germany addresses the challenges and In its capacity as demographic pilot, the Federal Ministry of opportunities of demographic development in our demo- the Interior, Building and Community has special tasks in graphically heterogeneous country. Participants and this regard: The first one being to contribute existing addressees of the individual one-day events are always the knowledge, i.e. demographic data and facts, relevant for the local stakeholders, i.e. representatives of the district, specific region. The second task is to involve subject matter mayors, representatives of professional associations, if rele- experts who can share their knowledge of action concepts vant, of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce, of senior as well as best practice information and, if applicable, exist- citizens and similar organisations who are shaping demo- ing support programmes with local stakeholders. Where graphic change at local level. The dialogue offers them an possible and appropriate, these can be project managers

28 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy from municipalities facing comparable challenges, but also facing comparable challenges, very much in the tradition of colleagues from federal and federal state ministries respon- the twinning idea. In this way, solution concepts can be dis- sible in charge of the respective topic. What’s special about cussed in detail and directly tested with a view to transfera- this format is that not only the region hosting the dialogue bility and practicability. This approach ultimately integrates is looked at, but that the Federal Ministry of the Interior, all social stakeholders who actively shape demographic Building and Community – where possible and appropriate change locally, enabling them to pass on their knowledge – also introduces potential contacts, such as representa- and experience and encourage other stakeholders to also tives of the district administration and from municipalities break new ground.

Experience from Cham and Stendal

Up to now, two of the four demographic dialogues planned for this legislative period have already taken place:

Demographic Dialogue ‘South’ in Cham 2018 (Bavaria)

On 4 December 2018, representatives of the region met with stakeholders from the federal government and from Bavaria, Brandenburg and Lower Saxony in Cham, Upper Palatinate. Using the example of the Cham district, they discussed mobility in rural areas and formulated concrete approaches for action. The results were published in a brochure, www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Service/Publika- tionen/2019/erster-demografiedialog-mobilitaet-in-laend- lichen-raeumen.html. A first impression of the region can be found in the opening film for the dialogue event: https://youtu.be/Cso9wJhzDW4. Source: Benjamin Franz

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 29 Demografiedialog ‘North’ in Stendal 2019 (Saxony-Anhalt)

On 29 October 2019, stakeholders from the Federal Gov- www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Service/Publika- ernment and the federal states of Saxony-Anhalt, Bavaria tionen/2020/zweiter-demografiedialog-wie-wol- and North Rhine-Westphalia met in the Hanseatic city of len-wir-wohnen.html Stendal. Using the example of the Stendal district, they discussed how to deal with vacancies in rural areas and www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmWsDzOcVbQ options for urban and village redevelopment. The docu- mentation of the event, which is also available as a brochure, and the opening film can be found online at:

Source: Stendal Magazin – Janowski

Further demographic dialogues are already in the pipeline. First suggestions for topics to address are: A third dialogue (‘West’) is planned in North Rhine-West- phalia. However, the process was initially interrupted by the l Solutions for supporting and attracting young families Covid-19 pandemic and will now be relaunched in digital and families with several children format. l Bolstering the medical infrastructure in rural areas with new concepts and innovative approaches (such as telemedicine or (inter)municipal health centres/networks)

30 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy A fourth demographic dialogue (‘Centre’) could take place ticularly valuable tool to enhance the public visibility of all in northern Thuringia as a region particularly affected by activities relating to the further development and imple- demographic change. Further dialogue events (such as mentation of the demographic strategy, events, interviews ‘East’ and ‘South-west’) could also be organised in regions and to provide support. with a similar demographic profile.

The main aim of these dialogues is to facilitate exchange between all participants and with external experts. The highlight of the series of events should therefore be a meeting with all stakeholders, facilitators and participants from the four demographic dialogues at the end of the series at another location, such as Berlin. Apart from the recognition thereby expressed by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community for participation in the demographic dialogue, this also helps to establish contacts across different topics and release synergies. A date in early 2022 is envisaged for this. The beginning of a new legislative period would be a particularly suitable point in time to channel the results, wishes and recommendations that have emerged from the demographic dialogues and to provide an impetus for policymaking in the coming four years.

Source: Federal Institute for Population Research The German Demographic Portal as a multiplier

The Demographic Portal of Germany and its Federal States actively accompanies and publicly communicates the i demographic dialogues. The editorial team prepares facts, The Demographic Portal of Germany and its Federal practical examples and other contributions on the respec- States, which is managed by the Federal Institute for tive focus of the dialogues and also interviews project Population Research on behalf of the Federal Govern- sponsors, mayors as well as other demographic policy ment, was created as an initiative within the framework stakeholders and collaborates on statements by senior rep- of the demographic strategy. It was launched to coin- resentatives of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building cide with the Federal Government’s first demography and Community, the ministries or the federal states. On the summit on 4 October 2012. www.demografie-portal.de day of the event, the portal’s editorial team is present on has since been a portal providing up-to-date informa- site to present its contents, exchange views with the partic- tion on the Federal Government’s demographic policy ipants of the dialogue and answer questions. Finally, the and discussing demographic issues. The cross-ministeri- Demographic Portal issues follow-up reports on the demo- al and cross-level portal provides important facts on graphic dialogues and their results, www.demografie-por- demographic change and its root causes, it offers an tal.de/DE/Politik/Bund/Dialogprozess/Demografiedialoge/ overview of the demographic policies of the Federal demografiedialoge.html. For the Federal Ministry of the Government and federal states and highlights exempla- Interior, for Building and Community as the lead agency for ry successful projects from the municipalities. The aim is the Federal Government’s demographic policy, the Demo- to gradually create visibility and usability for a nation- graphic Portal of Germany and its Federal States is a par- wide network to manage demographic change.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 31 2. Working in interministerial and federal-state groups – change is taking place across disciplines and with different impacts on regions

Ministry meetings: Interconnected thinking – independ- and strategies for addressing the challenges of demograph- ent implementation ic development. In any case, however, measures are in place to deal with the effects of ever longer life expectancy, low As a cross-ministerial process, the Federal Government’s birth rates or inbound and outbound migration in certain Demographic Strategy depends on regular exchanges regions of a federal state. It therefore makes sense for the between the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Federal Government and the federal states to exchange Community and the other ministries and the Federal Chan- experience and to continuously reconcile the Federal Gov- cellery, which deal with demographic policy issues within ernment’s demographic strategy with the activities and their respective areas of responsibility. This is why meetings strategies of the federal states. are held usually once a year to discuss demographic developments in Germany as well as the respective activities and At least once a year, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, measures. At the same time, strategic approaches are dis- Building and Community and stakeholders responsible for cussed and possibilities for implementing joint projects are demography in the federal states exchange experiences on explored and planned. These meetings are accompanied by demographic policy activities in their respective realms. On further regular information from the Federal Ministry of the the basis of the experience reports from the federal states Interior, Building and Community on the state of imple- on the implementation of their specific demographic poli- mentation of its own demographic policy formats. Finally, cies and the report by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, ad-hoc exchanges are also organised in the Interministerial Building and Community on its activities, the stakeholders Steering Group. In the development of demographic secu- responsible for demography extensively exchanged infor- rity measures (see the chapter on demographic security for mation regarding the different concepts for demographic more details), demands and projects already underway in policy of the Federal Government and the federal states. In the various ministries were first explored in a close 2019, for example, all federal state representatives reported exchange process. The preparations for an initiative at EU on their respective demographic policy projects and con- level under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of the cepts for the current year and provided an outlook on plans Interior, Building and Community are examples of the for 2020. Very different projects were discussed, such as the activities jointly developed within the framework of the Hesse Demography Award, which has been awarded for ten meetings with the ministries. years and focuses on rural areas as a stimulus for the regions, or the promotion of returnee initiatives by associa- Exchanging experience between the Federal Government tions or municipalities in Brandenburg (2019 and 2020 with and the federal states: thinking together at national level up to 230,000 euro annually).

However, demographic change is felt directly on the ground, in the municipalities. These in turn are located in the federal states, some of which are responsible for individual topics of the demographic strategy, such as education. In many cases, the regions have their specific concepts

32 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy This approach specifically fosters cooperation and network- serves not only to stage the Federal Government’s demo- ing among federal states and promotes the common learn- graphic policy measures, but also to make corresponding ing process. The Demographic Portal, as an information and activities of the federal states visible to the general public. communication platform for the demographic policies of This goal, which has been in place since the portal went the Federal Government and the federal states, is an impor- live, is to be underpinned by the ‘federal state months’ tant partner in this exchange of experience. As such, it launched in September 2020.

Fig. 15: Federal states and their population in millions (as of: 31 December 2019)

Schleswig-Holstein 2.9

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Hamburg 1.6 1.8 Bremen 0.7

Berlin Lower Saxony 3.7 8.0

Brandenburg 2.5 Saxony-Anhalt 2.2 North-Rhine Westphalia 17.9 Saxony Thuringia 4.1 2.1 Hessen 6.3

Rhineland-Palatinate 4.1

Saarland 1.0 Bavaria 13.1

Baden-Württemberg 11.1

Data source: Federal Statistical Office, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research, © GeoBasis-DE/BKG (2019)

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 33 3. Demographic Portal with a new look: modern and responsive design to support the launch of the ‘federal state months’

2020: Relaunch of the website The federal states introduce themselves

In September 2020, eight years after its launch, the Demo- As part of the relaunch of the Demographic Portal, the idea graphic Portal of Germany and its Federal States was given of introducing the ‘federal state months’ format was devel- a facelift: www.demografie-portal.de. The new structure of oped and presented to the joint conference of the Federal its homepage and navigation makes it easier to access Government and the federal states. Each federal state has information on the demographic policy of the Federal Gov- the opportunity to prominently address demographic policy ernment and the federal states. The modernised website topics on the portal for four months; the entry point can be with its new logo continues to present demographic topics found on the portal’s homepage under the new ‘In Focus’ and is now also optimised for mobile devices. The focus is heading. The aim is to offer users of the portal who are on facts as a basis for political debate and decisions as well interested in the subject more in-depth insights into the as on good practice examples, such as the ‘Comeback federal state’s specific demographic policy and to present Elbe-Elster’ project to motivate citizens to return to their practical examples as well as relevant concepts, reports or home region. The good practice database is designed to studies. What’s more, various demographic policy stake- promote exchange between such diverse regions. holders, such as regional demography commissioners and

Source: Federal Institute for Population Research

34 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy project initiators and/or sponsors will have their say. In this way, the federal states can use the portal to gradually create visibility and usability for a nationwide, level-span- urban + rural ning network to shape demographic change. x people The federal states are flexible when it comes to choosing the content of their respective ‘federal state months’. They = demography can be adapted to the particular needs and situation of each federal state. The provision of services of general interest, skilled workers, care or neighbourhood development, illustrated with the help of statistics, diagrams, a quiz Source: lvcandy/Getty Images or an interview with people responsible for the respective project: The federal states should make their own contributions towards both the topics to be addressed and the Another information tool for everyone: design. the Demography Radar

The first was Baden-Württemberg, which presented its The Demography Radar shows the demographic situation demographic policy on the portal between September and in Germany’s regions at a glance. Regional differences that December 2020: www.demografie-portal.de/laendermo- become apparent are visualised on maps of Germany at dis- nate-bw, followed by Bavaria between January and April trict level. Key features are population trends, age structure 2021: www.demografie-portal.de/laendermonate-by. The and life expectancy. For example, the Demography Radar other federal states will follow. also uses life expectancy as a parameter illustrating regional differences in living conditions. It therefore ultimately serves to highlight regional disparities in population development and ageing.

www.bmi.bund.de/DE/themen/heimat-integration/demografie/demografie-radar/demografie-radar-node.html

Source: Federal Institute for Population Research

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 35 i Life expectancy as an indicator of living conditions:

Since 1960, the average life expectancy at birth in Ger- many has increased by almost 12 years. However, it varies from region to region, also due to differences in living conditions and health-related behaviour. The front-runner is the district of Starnberg with 83.6 years, whilst life expectancy in Bremerhaven is 77.7 years.

Source: alvarez/iStock/Getty Images 36 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Fig. 16: Life expectancy at birth (2015 to 2017)

low life expectancy: Urban district of Bremerhaven: 77.7 Urban district of Gelsenkirchen: 78.4 Urban district of Pirmasens: 78.4 District of Stendal: 78.4 Salzland district: 78.6

high life expectancy: Urban district of Munich: 82.9 Hochtaunus district: 83.0 Breisgau-Hochschwarzwald district: 83.1 Munich district: 83.1 Starnberg district: 83.6

77.7 to 80 80 to 80.5 80.5 to 81 81 to 81.5 81.5 to 83.6 Life expectancy at birth in years

Data source: Federal Statistical Office, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research © GeoBasis-DE/BKG (2017)

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 37 4. Policy advice: tailor-made in all directions

An important part of implementing the Demographic Strategy involves disseminating the wealth of research results and findings on social development within the Federal Government and clearly highlighting cross-references.

This can only be successful if the information is prepared On 28 February 2019, for instance, Federal Minister of the and communicated in a way that is specific to the respec- Interior Horst Seehofer met with experts from academia, tive target groups: municipal administrations and business in a small circle to discuss the various facets of the transition from working Senior representatives of the ministry receive information life to retirement. and advice: Ministerial talks on demography The discussion specifically focused on the question of how In order to ensure that the Federal Government’s demo- the new potential that results from people living longer in graphic strategy is implemented in a scientifically sound good health can be better exploited for each and every and practically relevant manner, the Federal Minister of the individual. Another point of discussion centred around what Interior and other senior representatives of the Federal characterises the group of people who continue to be Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community regularly active and even gainfully employed in old age. Special exchange views with relevant stakeholders on key demo- potentials, but also challenges were discussed in this con- graphic issues. One important point of concern of theose text: Are there any skills and talents lying idle and, if so, involved is that positive messages from the respective why? This was the basis of a discussion on what politics, regions be communicated more strongly. academia and business can do to shape this aspect of demographic development accordingly.

The discussion also generated impulses for demographic security in the public sector, which, just like the majority of companies in the labour market, must prepare for the ageing of its workforce and deal with the resulting challenges.

www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/kurzmeldungen/ DE/2019/03/expertenrat-demografie.html

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

38 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

The demography meeting on 18 February 2020 focused on Demographic policy networking into parliament the question regarding the motives that underlie the current trend to return home. For example, the mayor of the A large part of policymaking takes place in the form of leg- city of Guben in Brandenburg, Fred Mahro, reported that islation or is at least facilitated by legislative measures. It is families often returned to their home regions. Therefore, therefore important to create broad awareness of the the ‘comprehensive package’ for families – childcare, school cross-cutting issue of demography also among members of quality, clubs and ‘welcoming culture’ – is, after the job sit- parliament. As part of a new series launched during this uation, the second most important precondition for cities legislative period, the parliamentary state secretary at the and regions to successfully attract returnees. Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community invites representatives of various parliamentary groups to The factors that contribute to a successful return were also discuss current research findings presented by a scientist discussed. What are the parameters of a region’s attractive- from the Federal Institute for Population Research. The ness, i.e. factors that keep people in the area and encourage first round of talks on 5 June 2019 addressed the issue of them to move there? What role do return initiatives play? equivalent living conditions. The second meeting on 18 December 2019 focused on the retirement of baby In addition to Mr Mahro, Professor Heike Liebmann from boomers. To conincide with the ‘30 years of German Unity’ Brandenburgische Beratungsgesellschaft für Stadterneu- anniversary, the third demography lunch on 2 October 2020 erung und Modernisierung mbH, Dr Colin von Ettingshaus- finally focused on demographic developments in east and en, Commercial Managing Director of BASF Schwarzheide west Germany over the past 30 years. GmbH, and Sven Guntermann, Chairman of the association ‘Generationen gehen gemeinsam (G3) e. V.’, came to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community as experts. The topics discussed included the preconditions that contribute to a successful return policy, the attractiveness parameters of a region and the role of return initiatives. www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/kurzmeldungen/ DE/2020/02/demografiegespraech-rueckkehr.html

Source: Westend61/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 39 ‘Three children and more – families from the middle of Further expert talks society’ symposium on 29 January 2020 at the academy of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation administration about the scientific findings that are relevant to their respective fields: Another part of policy consulting also takes place in interaction with the world of foundations. Who are the people l Everything in flow – outreach events of the Federal with many children in Germany? Where do they live and Institute for Population Research on migration move- what are their personal circumstances? The results of a ments on 21 and 22 March 2018 2019 study by the Federal Institute for Population Research on the situation of large families provided the basis for an In March 2018, Dr Sander, director of Research Area ‘Migra- expert discussion organised by the Konrad Adenauer Foun- tion and Mobility’ at the Federal Institute for Population dation in cooperation with the Federal Ministry of the Inte- Research, provided information on global migration move- rior, Building and Community and the Federal Institute for ments at two internal information events at the Federal Population Research. Besides representatives of the minis- Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and pre- tries, advocacy groups and local politics, Federal Minister sented the ‘Global Flow of People’ as her interactive visual- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and the deputy chairman of isation of migration flows. The importance of data visualis- the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bunde- ation as a bridge between academia, politics and the gener- stag, MP Hermann Gröhe, also took part. A detailed report al public became apparent. on the event and the study can be found on the demography portal under the following link: www.bib.bund.de/EN/ l ‘Who lives the longest and where?’ – expert talk on life Service/Events/Reports/2020/KAS-Conference-2020.html. expectancy at district level in Germany on 9 May 2019

Accurate data at district level are extremely important for assessing regional demographic trends. Professor Dr Roland Rau, Chair of Demography at the University of Rostock and Max Planck Fellow at the Rostock Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, scientifically substantiated this finding using the ‘life expectancy’ topic as an example and discussed it with colleagues from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community.

‘Getting to 100 – but how?’ exhibition from 15 October to 13 November 2018 at the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community Source: Juliane Liebers/KAS

Longevity and ageing, ageing society – all these terms are often associated with demographic change. Many people have only a marginal or even no idea of the underlying details, of the factors that promote old age and the exciting things that happen along the way. And just because the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community is the department in charge of the topic of demography within the Federal Government, this does not mean that the entire staff, i.e. some 2,000 employees after all, are experts in this field. So what could be more obvious than to start transferring knowledge in-house?

40 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy In addition to the exhibition, the central topics of home town and living conditions were presented on a touch- screen installation. Visitors were able to find out, for example, about regional demographic aspects of their home town, also in comparison with other regions in Germany.

The exhibition met with great interest. At the ceremonial opening of the exhibition by State Secretary Dr Markus Kerber and Dr Andreas Edel from Population Europe, and also on the following days of the exhibition, many colleagues took a look into the future.

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

i Population Europe, the European scientific association of ‘Population Europe’ is a network of research institutions demographers, developed the travelling exhibition ‘How to in the field of population sciences. Its mission is to get to 100 – and enjoy it’ with the support of various part- inform policymakers, society and the media in Brussels ners, including the Federal Ministry of Education and and the member states about latest research findings, Research and the Max Planck Society. From October 2013 https://population-europe.eu. Besides active support for to September 2016, the exhibition was on show at 25 the projects of its partner institutes, the network also venues in Europe, including the European Commission and pursues its own activities. For example, the travelling the European Parliament in Brussels, Tallinn University, but exhibition ‘How to get to 100 – and enjoy it’ launched also very close to citizens in a shopping mall in Budapest. in 2013 made demography accessible to a lay public. The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu- Click here for the factsheet in English: https://popula- nity also played host to the exhibition. tion-europe.eu/sites/default/files/images-in-ckeditor/ exhibition_factsheet_2019_0.pdf For four weeks, employees and guests of the ministry visit- ed the travelling exhibition designed by Population Europe and were able to learn about demographic change in a playful and at the same scientifically sound way. By walking through the ten steles of the exhibition, addressing, for instance, the development of life expectancy, health and independence in old age and the size of the population in the coming decades, visitors ultimately passed through the stages of life. iPads offered in-depth information, diagrams, charts, terminological guidance and video interviews with experts on the respective topic, as well as the opportunity for interaction. Visitors could, for instance, take part in sur- veys, have their life expectancy or potential number of children calculated on the basis of predefined parameters, experience visual impairments that occur in old age and view themselves at an advanced age in a photo simulation: ‘What will I look like in 100 years?’

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 41 5. Demographic security on the labour market: the public service takes the lead

One particular challenge in implementing the complex The workforce available to the labour market as a whole is demographic strategy is the need to advance issues that thus getting older and the age of employees in companies affect many stakeholders equally. In this decade, this is rising accordingly. Employers will have to prepare for this includes the special impact of demographic change on the as well as for the departure of large parts of their workforces. labour market. Ageing hence affects not only each and every individual, In the 2020s and 2030s, the so-called baby boomers, Ger- but also the labour market and the economy as a whole. many’s largest ever birth cohorts, born in the 1950s and The extent to which baby boomers can be enabled to con- 1960s, will reach their final working years and retire. At that tribute actively to Germany’s development for as long as time, around 1 to 1.3 million children were born each year, possible is essential for successful demographic change in whereas the current annual birth rate is in the range of the labour market and in society. 700,000 newborns. The public sector as Germany’s largest employer (almost 11 percent of the working population in Germany is employed here) is particularly called upon when it comes to shaping Leaving birth cohorts this change, both in terms of demographic security within (1950 to 1969) Approx. 24.0 million public authorities and as a role model for others. Entering birth cohorts (1997 to 2016) Approx. 15.5 million As part of the working group’s work on shaping the Federal Government’s demographic strategy (2012 to 2017), one Difference Approx. 8.5 million working group under the auspices of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community already focused on

Source: Federal Institute for Population Research, Federal Ministry of the Interior, Build- the question how to ensure the long-term attractiveness ing and Community and modernity of the public service. The working group published recommendations for specific measures to secure the skilled labour base in the public sector.

42 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Fig. 17: How many of today’s employees (2,066) will have retired by the year

210 520

20252020 2030

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

During the current legislative period, the Federal Ministry competence with around 80,000 employees, but also to the of the Interior, Building and Community, together with the entire public service, these measures are also being made Federal Institute for Population Research, held an internal available to the other federal authorities. In addition, they lunchtime event on the subject of ‘Baby Boomers’. It are publicly accessible and can be adopted by other became clear that not only Germany as a whole is facing a employers and adapted to their specific needs. special challenge because the transition of the baby boomers will take place within a very short period of time, but that the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Com- munity must also face this challenge as an employer. By i 2030, around a quarter of the current workforce of the Fed- The measures implemented in conjunction with the eral Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community will concept to secure skilled labour include, for instance, a have retired; 60 percent of them between 2025 and 2030. website (umbrella portal) for public employers from the Federal Government, the federal states and municipal The ‘Demographic Security’ jour fixe launched in spring authorities, which includes links to a large number of 2019 addresses this challenge. Within the Federal Ministry decentralised job vacancies in the public sector and pro- of the Interior, Building and Community, measures are vides information on the general conditions for employ- being developed together with human resources and public ment there: www.durchstaaten.de. With just a few clicks, service employment law departments in order to mitigate citizens can find many jobs in the public sector on the the age-related effect of employees leaving the civil service job portal – jobs at the Federal Government, the federal and to counteract a shortage of personnel. Because these states and municipal authorities. topics are not only relevant to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and its very large area of

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 43 Structured knowledge transfer

The first outcome of the ‘Demographic Security’ jour fixe through numerous measures within the Federal Ministry of was a concept for structured knowledge transfer. If sea- the Interior, Building and Community, at other federal min- soned employees with many years of experience leave the istries as well as the competent authorities under the Fed- service, the public authorities and/or organisational units eral Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and concerned are at risk of losing knowledge and, in particular, also published on the ministry’s homepage: www.bmi.bund. hands-on experience. Structured knowledge transfer meas- de/DE/themen/oeffentlicher-dienst/arbeiten-in-der-bun- ures were developed to systematically retain knowledge desverwaltung/demografiestrategie-oed/demografiestrate- and, in particular, the many years of practical experience of gie-oed-node.html. A two-minute video provides an retiring seasoned staff. easy-to-understand summary of the contents of the concept: www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/videos/DE/themen/ The concept is aimed to help make transitions smoother heimat-integration/demografie/wissenstransfer-demo- and avoid knowledge drain and contains several guidance grafie.html. documents and working aids. It was communicated

Fig. 18: Structured knowledge transfer

1 year 1/2 year Just before Exit Induction

Checklist Requirements meeting Succession meeting Handover meeting Induction meeting for manager (checklist for succession meeting)

Checklist Handover report for employees

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

44 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Retirement advice

The federal administration – just like any other employer – WEGE-WEISER 55+ addresses a variety of topics of varying is keen to keep older employees healthy and motivated in relevance for the respective employees, in particular, the their working lives for as long as possible because they following areas: have a wealth of knowledge and valuable experience.

With an ageing workforce, maintaining working capacity and employability is becoming increasingly important. Motivated Work-life Civic Structuring Measures to design age-compatible working environments and healthy balance in working life old age engagement retirement which are also suitable for an ageing workforce and condu- cive to maintaining good health are therefore essential.

Date of Financial Organisational Successfully completing the final years of service and retirement aspects issues entering into essentially depend on the exchange between employers and employees. To this end, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community has developed the Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community ‘WEGE-WEISER 55+, Erfahren wirken im öffentlichen Dienst’ concept. WEGE-WEISER 55+ comprises various measures and offers This concept is designed to provide older employees with to employees, from which the respective authority can information and assistance in three successive phases of compile a package of measures according to its specific their lives: needs. Besides concrete suggestions for an information event and the proposal of regular exchange formats between older employees and human resources departments, a brochure was developed that offers concise The remaining The transition The time after working years to retirement answers to the most important questions relating to the above-mentioned phases of life and refers to opportunities

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community to deal with the topics in more detail. The WEGE-WEISER 55+ concept, the brochure and a supporting video were – as with the structured knowledge transfer concept – made Employees should be empowered to actively shape this available to other federal ministries and the competent stage of their lives and also feel valued as seasoned, often authorities of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building long-standing employees. Through dialogue, employers and Community and published on the ministry’s homepage: should be able to understand the particular strengths of www.bmi.bund.de/DE/themen/oeffentlicher-dienst/arbeit- this group of employees and to not only support these en-in-der-bundesverwaltung/demografiestrategie-oed/ employees better than before, but also to make use of demografiestrategie-oed-node.html. them.

The core of the concept is a dialogue process that starts at an early stage and is geared to enable both sides to develop transparent and structured plans, to avoid obstacles and to devise a smooth transition to retirement and the time thereafter.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 45 III. The emergence of a European network

46 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision/Getty Images, Bloomberg Creative Photos/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 47 1. Initiative at EU level

Demographic change is affecting not only Germany, but all member states of the European Union.

Already reality, before the end of this century, the number At the same time, the Croatian Council Presidency focused of old and very old Europeans will significantly exceed the heavily on demography in the first half of 2020. The Council number of young people on our continent. Both on a Euro- adopted conclusions on demography that incorporate the pean scale and in the member states, regions are being new dynamism, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/ affected by demographic change to very different degrees. DE/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020XG0619(01)&from=EN. The Some regions, many of which are structurally weak and Commission presented the Report on the Impact of Demo- rural, are being hit by strong ageing and outbound migra- graphic Change (June 2020). https://ec.europa.eu/info/ tion. These regions hence face particular challenges, for sites/info/files/demography_report_2020_n.pdf. In addi- example, in terms of healthcare, labour force and mobility. tion, the ‘Green Paper on Ageing’ was published in January It is foreseeable that the differences both within the Euro- 2021. A ‘Long-Term Vision for Rural Areas’ will follow. This pean Union and in its member states will increase in some represents a clear focus on the issue of demography. respects in the future. Nevertheless, the member states are united by the objective of creating good living conditions As the initiatives of the Croatian Council Presidency show, for people of all ages. Equivalent living conditions are important issues for the future of the EU are now coming therefore an important issue for Germany as well as for its into focus since it is also a common task at European level European neighbours. to actively shape demographic change in all relevant policy areas. This is where effective demographic policies of the For the first time in the history of the EU, the European member states and the European Union can come to bear- Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen appoint- ing. The EU is united by the common goal of creating the ed Ms Dubravka Šuica Vice-President for Democracy and best possible conditions in order to give people of all gen- Demography at the end of 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/com- erations the opportunity to use their own potential and mission/commissioners/2019-2024/suica_en. One of her abilities and to contribute to good coexistence. It is ulti- key tasks is to develop responses to the demographic chal- mately a matter of securing opportunities for participation lenges, to exploit the opportunities offered by demographic for all, the stability of the community and hence the pre- change and to ensure the best possible involvement and conditions for functioning democracies. In addition, there is support of all stakeholder groups. This is the first time that a persistently high level of outbound migration from certain a high-level role has been created for the topic of demog- regions which is deepening the territorial disparities raphy in the European Commission. between European neighbours: Intra-European exchange

48 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: European Commission

on cross-cutting strategies that take a holistic view of the The new high-level responsibility for demographic issues challenges ahead is therefore of paramount importance. in the European Commission enhances the value of the This exchange provides an opportunity to meet in the spirit topic of demography in the European context and will of partnership and to find good solutions to issues, such as promote its future continuation and further development digitalisation, which is an indispensable prerequisite for throughout Europe. Together with its partners at EU level, participation, the new worlds of work, baby boomers and Germany has made an active contribution towards shaping demographic security, as well as the equal value of regions. this process.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 49 2. Bilateral exchange

The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community considers stronger networking to be a prerequisite for joint action.

While scientists and researchers are already very well inter- In preparation for the conference, the Federal Ministry of connected throughout Europe, exchange on issues of the Interior, Building and Community has held bilateral demographic change at political level has so far only taken meetings at working level with various EU member states place throughout the EU on specific individual aspects, since the summer of 2018, starting with Germany’s imme- such as regional planning issues. Germany therefore set diate neighbouring states. Relevant topics relating to the itself the goal for its European Council Presidency in the shaping of demographic change and the creation of equiva- second half of 2020 to initiate an exchange between the lent living conditions were discussed and, as far as possible, member states on political challenges and strategies in different focal points were set, depending on the specific view of Europe’s demographic development, to share tried- political focus of the respective member states. For this and-tested cases of good practice and also to identify start- reason, other departments with technical responsibility for ing points for possible opportunities for joint, cross-border the topic also took an active part in the exchange, where measures to improve equivalent living conditions between appropriate. For example, a representative of the Federal neighbouring states, but also within individual member Ministry of Finance attended the meeting with Denmark on states. To this end, an online expert conference on political the topics of baby boomers, sustainability and pensions, strategies was held on 17/18 December 2020 at the invita- whilst representatives of the Federal Ministry of Finance tion of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and and the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs con- Community. This made it possible to pick up the momen- tributed to the discussions with Italy on issues of social tum at EU level and to include the conclusions drawn up by security systems and the shortage of skilled workers. the Council under the Croatian Council Presidency.

50 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: CatEyePerspective/iStock/Getty Images

Several recurring topics emerged during these bilateral certain regions which deepens the disparities within and meetings, since certain demographic trends are common to between the European states. For example, some 550,000 all EU member states despite all differences between them. people left Bulgaria in the past 20 years, many of them for These trends include increased life expectancy and low countries outside Europe. Returnee movements, which do birth rates as well as the associated ageing of society. The in fact exist and which are massively promoted by the Bul- share of over-65s in the EU (as currently constituted) has garian government as well as by non-governmental organi- grown by almost 50 percent in the last 30 years alone. By sations, are still in their infancy. A small part of Bulgaria’s 2050, around one third of the EU population is expected to migration loss is compensated for by immigration from belong to this age group. countries outside the EU. Overall, however, emigration combined with a negative natural population balance has Parallel to this trend, the birth rate in European countries led to a continuous decline in Bulgaria’s population for has stabilised at a low level. In 2018, the average number of three decades now. At the end of 2019, Bulgaria was home children per woman totalled 1.55 in the EU. The European to 6,951,482 people, almost 20 percent less than the population is only growing thanks to immigration. In addi- 8,669,200 people at the end of 1990. tion, there is a larger extent of outbound migration from

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 51 3. Not together and yet very close: virtual and ministerial at EU level

The demography conference ‘Demographic change and equivalent living conditions – Policy strategies in EU member states’ held during the German EU Presidency showed that demographic change will present the member states of the European Union with similar challenges in the coming decades.

It will have very different effects in the different regions. return migrants and in cross-border initiatives against Member states can exchange and redevelop policies that structural change made it clear at the conference that ensure a high level of prosperity, good quality of life and broad policy approaches involving all sectors of society are equitable opportunities for participation and social cohe- also needed across Europe. sion across Europe. Striving for equivalent living conditions will be key to this. Moreover, successfully managing demo- The initiative by the German European Council Presidency graphic change in a joint effort will contribute significantly is a contribution towards better exchange and hence part of to the positive development of Europe’s role in the world. the new momentum at EU level that will bring both the The presentations and discussions on overarching policy issue of demographic change and the member states’ polit- strategies, as well as on individual aspects and practical ical options for successfully managing demographic change examples, such as flexible solutions for pension systems, more into the European focus. dealing with housing vacancies, creativity in attracting

EXPERT CONFERENCE 17/12/20 – 18/12/20 Berlin

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND EQUIVALENT LIVING CONDITIONS Policy Strategies in European Union Member States

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community, Picture source: Getty Images

52 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 53 I V. Demography – a global issue

54 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Martin Puddy/Stone/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 55 1. United Nations Commission on Population and Development

Along with 46 other countries, Germany is a member of the United Nations Commission on Population and Development (CPD), www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/CPD, a functional Commission of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).

The Commission’s objective is to follow up the implemen- Interaction between population dynamics and sustainable tation of the Programme of Action adopted at the Interna- development, including intergenerational equality, as well tional Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) as the fight against inequality and progress in social inclu- in Cairo in 1994. This programme underlines the interde- sion are hence of utmost importance for the implementa- pendence between population growth and development tion of the goals of the Cairo Programme of Action. Aspects and delivers valuable recommendations in a number of of sexual and reproductive health and rights, as well as policy areas on how to reconcile population development other issues, such as ageing, social participation and migra- with sustainable economic and social development, tion, also have an important role to play. Examples include www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/programme_ achieving gender equality and eliminating socio-economic of_action_Web ENGLISH.pdf. The Federal Ministry of the disparities in access to education. Unrestricted access to Interior, Building and Community, as the department education for boys and girls is a fundamental precondition responsible for demographic policy in the Federal Govern- for the inclusive economic development of a country. ment, participates in the Commission’s annual meetings. At UN level, the process aims to achieve agreement on Against this background, the Commission addresses issues common population and human rights benchmarks that of population development and its relationship to the will advance socio-economic development and empower socio-economic development of states. To this end, it uses every woman, man and child to lead a better life. Other reports from the UN system concerning population and participants include the Federal Foreign Office (via the Per- development, including scientific papers and activity manent Mission to the UN in New York), the Federal Minis- reports from the UN Population Division and the United try for Economic Cooperation and Development, Deutsche Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The Commission’s find- Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) ings, which should dovetail as much as possible with the GmbH and the Federal Institute for Population Research, as 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, well as other ministries, such as the Federal Ministry for www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/nachhaltigkeit- Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth as well as spolitik/nachhaltigkeitsziele-verstaendlich-erklaert-232174, the Federal Ministry of Health. will feed into the General Assembly.

56 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Due to the pandemic, the most recent face-to-face meeting The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Com- of the Commission in New York took place in spring 2019. munity and the Federal Institute for Population Research The 52nd session met in the anniversary year (25 years of attended the conference as part of the German delega- the Cairo Programme of Action) on the topic of ‘Review and tion, alongside the Federal Ministry for Economic Coop- appraisal of the Programme of Action of the International eration and Development and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Conference on Population and Development and its contri- Internationale Zusammenarbeit. They contributed to the bution to the follow-up and review of the 2030 Agenda for conference through plenary speeches and hosted a Sustainable Development’ and ended with a political decla- well-attended side event on ‘Integrating population ration reaffirming the importance of the UN CPD and its dynamics into policy and programme planning’ at the associated regional conferences and their outcome docu- German Mission in New York on 3 April 2019. The Federal ments. Government’s demographic strategy was also presented there as part of a panel followed by a discussion. Other core topics were the cross-national significance of demographic data and analyses as a key to demographically sensitive policymaking and the shaping of political dialogue on demographic issues.

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 57 During the 53rd session of the Commission dealing with i the topic of ‘Population, food security, nutrition and sus- The United Nations Population Fund, UNFPA, is the tainable development’, originally scheduled for 30 March to lead agency for implementing the principles and pro- 3 April 2020, the resolution originally considered was grammes adopted at the International Conference on replaced in May by a draft statement that addressed the Population and Development in 1994 in Cairo. UNFPA issue in the context of the pandemic. After several informal was instrumental in putting reproductive health and consultation rounds, which took place in a virtual format reproductive rights issues on the political agenda in due to the pandemic, negotiations were terminated since many countries. One of its tasks is to promote aware- no consensus was reached regarding the content, nor for a ness of these issues worldwide. UNFPA also promotes text that was only intended to summarise the discussions. equal opportunities and combats violence against The above key topic will now be comprehensively women. addressed at the 54th session in 2021. The topic of ‘Popula- tion and sustainable development, in particular sustained It also publishes the annual world population report and inclusive economic growth’, originally scheduled for (abridged German version www.dsw.org/weltbev- 2021, will be discussed at the 55th session in 2022. oelkerungsbericht). It explains current topics of population development and contains demographic and For several years now, the meetings of the Commission on socio-economic data for all countries and regions of the Population have failed to reach agreement on a resolution world. It also helps countries to collect and analyse data on substantive issues. The reasons for this include the fact on population trends, which are needed as a basis for that specifically the EU member states’ views and positions development strategies. UNFPA cooperates with gov- on sexual and reproductive health and rights issues differ ernments and non-governmental organisations in more from those of the US and other third countries. Also as a than 150 countries. Further information about UNFPA result of this development, the next meeting will aim to can be found at: www.unfpa.org/worldwide. examine the future role, organisation and functioning of the Commission.

The Nairobi Conference

The aim of continuing and strengthening international dia- Although sexual and reproductive health and rights issues logue on strategies to address demographic change was were the focus of the conference, demographic aspects also served by the participation of the Federal Ministry of were also addressed and discussed in various formats, for the Interior, Building and Community in the anniversary example, in a panel discussion on the demographic divi- conference jointly hosted by UNFPA and the Kenyan and dend. The German demographic strategy was also the sub- Danish governments to mark 25 years of the Cairo Pro- ject of a number of informal meetings during the confer- gramme of Action in Nairobi from 12 to 14 November 2019. ence. At the request of the Mexican delegation, the representative of UNFPA Mexico, for instance, initiated a bilater- The conference, which was also attended by the Federal al discussion with Germany on demographic strategy. The Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and topic of population data and more specifically their genera- the Federal Foreign Office, was attended by more than tion and availability, was another issue of great importance 9,500 participants from government, academia, religious at the conference and was also particularly emphasised by groups and civil society from 173 countries. UNFPA. Focal aspects included the progress in estimating sub-national data down to municipality level in order to enable small-scale inventories to be set up and more precise monitoring of developments.

58 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy The aim of the conference was to mobilise political and streaming and participation. Following extensive consul- financial support for ‘business’ that remained ‘unfinished’ in tation, the ‘Nairobi Declaration’ with twelve global ‘Com- Cairo: This included putting an end to violence against mitments’, www.nairobisummiticpd.org/content/ women, reducing maternal mortality further, access to con- icpd25-commitments, was published in advance on the traception and sexual education as well as dealing with conference website. Germany endorsed the Declaration in demographic changes. Topics included the ageing of the its own national ‘Commitment’, www.nairobisummiticpd. population of industrialised nations as well as gender main- org/commitment/investing-health-rights-and-choices-all.

Natalia Kanem, Executive Director of UNFPA, at the Nairobi Conference Source: Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 59 2. Looking to Asia and beyond

The demographic world does not end at Europe’s external At ministerial level, too, interest in exchange among gov- borders. In particular, countries on the other side of the ernment representatives from the relevant ministries is globe, such as Thailand, South Korea and Japan, are also already apparent. In April 2019, at the request of the Thai addressing the issues of ageing and demographic security, Office of Civil Service Commission (OCSC), which is respon- whilst many countries in Africa and parts of South America sible for fundamental matters relating to the civil service in that have a high share of young people have other chal- Thailand, an expert discussion took place at the Federal lenges to face. Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community with the participation of a representative of the Federal Ministry of Looking to Asia Finance regarding demographic development in a German/ Thai comparison and on the potential future effects on the Parallels and interfaces with various aspects of demograph- civil service. Despite the differences in policy systems and ic development in Germany can be found especially in approaches to policy design, it became clear that issues, Southeast Asian countries. In the coming legislative period, such as the numerical ratio of young to old population, and the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Communi- the resulting challenges in areas like healthcare and demo- ty will therefore increasingly approach partners in the graphic security are highly relevant to both countries. region in order to exchange strategies for coping with the challenges of demographic change. A corresponding bilat- Besides South Korea and Thailand, Japan and Singapore are eral exchange has already been taking place at scientific also important partners in Asia. They too are experiencing a level for some time. For example, a research project con- strong ageing of the population and are developing strate- ducted by the Federal Institute for Population Research gies to successfully manage the demographic transition. and its South Korean partners addressed, among other The Indo-Pacific Guidelines ‘Germany – Europe – Asia: things, the extent to which Germany’s demographic experi- Shaping the 21st Century Together’ were adopted by the ence during reunification could serve as a blueprint for a Federal Government on 2 September 2020 and underline similar situation in Korea. the importance of this socio-political and scientific exchange and also place it on a political and strategic foot- ing for the future.

www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/aussenpolitik/region- aleschwerpunkte/asien/indo-pazifik-leitlinien/2380340

60 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Another example of bilateral cooperation: Meeting with Emily Martin, representative of the Australian Department of the Treasury, in Europe on 9 October 2019

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Source: MR.Cole_Photographer/Moment/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 61 Fig. 19: Comparison of the age structure of the population in Africa and Europe (2020)

AFRICA EUROPE

100+100+ 100+ 100+

Men 90-94 Women Men90-94 Women

80-84 80-84

70-74 70-74

60-64 60-64

50-54 50-54

40-44 40-44

30-34 30-34

20-24 20-24

10-14 10-14

0-4 0-4 0-4 0-4 050100 0 50 100 02550 0 25 50 Population in millions Population in millions

Data source: UN, diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

Despite all the differences, there are also major parallels in global demographic developments: life expectancy, for example, has increased worldwide over the past 30 years, while overall population growth has slowed due to declining birth rates. Further increases in world population are expected, especially in many countries in Africa and certain Asian countries. Rising life expectancy means that the share of the elderly population is growing worldwide, albeit with very different baseline levels. Whilst the share of citizens over 65 in Japan already totals 28 percent, this figure is as low as 3 percent in Nigeria.

Source: ranplett/iStock Unreleased/Getty Images

62 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Fig. 20: Population aged over 65 (share in percent) in world regions and selected countries (2020)

Japan 28 Italy 23 Germany 22 France 21 EUROPE 19 NORTH AMERICA 17 United States of America 17 OCEANIA 13 China 12 WORLD 9 LATIN AMERICA AND CARRIBBEAN 9 ASIA 9 India 7 AFRICA 4 Nigeria 3 Qatar 2 United Arab Emirates 1

Data source: UN, calculations and diagram: Federal Institute for Population Research

In a globalised world, progress and problem-solving concepts, but also negative developments and setbacks are much closer to us today than they were 50 years ago. The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community considers the international questions regarding population and development also to be important for the future-orientated demographic policy of the Federal Government. Together with the Federal Ministry for Economic Coopera- tion and Development and the Federal Foreign Office, it therefore supports strengthening demographic topics on bilateral and multilateral level by exchanging research results and best practices as well as participating in the work of international institutions, such as the United Source: NicolasMcComber/E+/Getty Images Nations (UN).

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 63 3. A portal reaches out into the world – with a suitcase packed with know-how!

Sharing knowledge, exchanging experience, communicating demographic content – all these activities, which are so important at international level, are core competencies of the Demographic Portal of Germany and its federal states as a tool for implementing Germany’s demographic strategy.

What could be more obvious than to make use of this in an The measure is intended to empower stakeholders who international context too? A project by the Federal Ministry actively manage demographic change on the ground to of the Interior, Building and Community therefore focuses draw up the concept for the contents of a platform which, on the portal itself as a best practice example. in addition to disseminating information, enables the exchange of experience and knowledge. Another aim is to Building on the Nairobi Conference in autumn 2019, Ger- empower stakeholders to initiate dialogue with relevant many, UNFPA and the African Union launched a series of stakeholders in their countries, which is necessary for the policy dialogues on demographic diversity and demograph- development of a portal, and/or to get to know relevant ic dividend on 5 October 2020. Several dialogue events are processes and structures. planned aiming, among other things, at strengthening technical cooperation. For this purpose, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Build- ing and Community and the Federal Institute for Popula- This is where the Demographic Portal comes in. The Feder- tion Research developed an ‘Info box’ in the form of a al Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community will laptop which illustrates aims and possible contents of the contribute a series of training courses and workshops for training courses and is intended to convince the addressees representatives of interested African states, jointly organ- of the offering. The info box briefly describes what partici- ised and supervised by the Ministry and the Federal Insti- pants can expect from training. Although the kick-off was tute for Population Research. The main aim is to dissemi- delayed due to the pandemic, the laptop is already up and nate knowledge concerning the content-related structure running. and operation of an online platform based on the model of the Demographic Portal.

64 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Federal Institute for Population Research

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 65 V. The Covid-19 pandemic – editing and communicating population structure data

66 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 67 The Covid-19 pandemic made it unmistakably clear how relevant population structure data and their scientific analysis are for successful crisis management. Since March 2020, the Federal Institute for Population Research has prepared a variety of situation reports for the Federal Min- istry of the Interior, Building and Community and the joint crisis team of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and the Federal Ministry of Health, which highlight various aspects of the demographic situation for the pandemic. These include reports on a range of topics, including: l Regional variation in age distribution l Regional distribution of pre-existing conditions l Home-based learning and social inequalities

In addition, the Federal Institute for Population Research set up a pandemic sub-page on its website with a clearly structured summary of the most important results: www.bib.bund.de/corona

The focus is on the impact of the pandemic on the population. An online document at www.bib.bund.de/DE/Service/ Corona/Demografie-und-Pandemie.pdf explains the most important findings in easy-to-understand language.

In addition, researchers at the Federal Institute of Popula- tion Research set up ad-hoc research projects in cooperation with the Robert Koch Institute, the Max Planck Insti- tute for Demographic Research in Rostock, the German Source: Federal Institute for Population Research Aerospace Center, the University of Freiburg and the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart and other institutes.

68 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Dirk Enters Source: Dirk Enters

Estimating the vulnerability of the population in hospital The map developed as part of the SPOCK project presents catchment areas to severe Covid-19 disease daily updated information on free ICU beds from the DIVI intensive care register as well as the size and age structure Which hospital still has free beds in its intensive care unit of the population living in the hospital catchment areas. For to treat Covid-19 patients? Answering this question is the this purpose, vacant ICU beds reported in the DIVI Inten- aim of a sub-project under the ‘SPOCK’ project (Manage- sive Care Register are put in relation to the population aged ment Prognosis of Intensive Care COVID-19 Capacities) 70 and over. funded by the Federal Ministry of Health. The answer will also depend on the degree of the population’s vulnerability The presentation allows a more precise view of the regional to severe Covid-19 disease in hospital catchment areas. availability of ICU beds versus the size of risk groups in Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Institute hospital catchment areas. This information can also assist for Population Research has therefore been processing data effective capacity utilisation planning by individual hospi- on the population aged 70 and over on a small-scale level, tals and the corresponding allocation of new patients by on the number of persons from risk groups, as well as daily control centres. updated information on infection figures in the catchment area of the hospital as well as on occupancy rates in neighbouring hospitals and other data. Other project participants are the Robert Koch Institute, the German Aerospace Center and the University of Freiburg. The calculations by the Federal Institute for Population Research are incorpo- rated into the University of Freiburg’s forecast model, which is designed to predict the capacity utilisation of individual intensive care units over several weeks. The results will be promptly made available to political decision-makers in the form of an interactive map application as well as written situation reports via the websites of the DIVI Inten- sive Care Register and the Robert Koch Institute. This Source: Federal Institute for Population Research sub-project is handled by the management of the SPOCK project at the Robert Koch Institute.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 69 Model for regional simulation of the effect of contact-re- And, finally: What is the psychosocial toll of the Covid-19 stricting measures crisis on families? In the case of families with children under twelve years of age, the occupation of the parents How do decision-makers resolve the trade-off between (especially in the case of working from home), family forms ensuring healthcare on the one hand – i.e. not overburden- as well as social and health consequences for the target ing ICU facilities – and the serious economic and social group were put into perspective. The results were pub- consequences of contact restrictions on the other? Based lished in a brochure and also made available to a wider on daily ICU data from German hospitals, this issue is being audience at a virtual press conference on 14 July 2020. explored by the Federal Institute for Population Research together with researchers from the High Performance www.bib.bund.de/DE/Service/Presse/2020/2020-07- Computing Center Stuttgart, the Max Planck Institute for Eltern-waehrend-der-Corona-Krise.html Demographic Research in Rostock and the Robert Koch Institute. Besides the three projects mentioned above, the Federal Institute for Population Research transmits weekly infor- The model is expected to predict the development of the mation on current regional hospital capacities, broken numbers of Covid-19 patients in ICUs for a forecast period down by age groups, to the joint crisis team of the Federal of two months under different scenarios and to provide Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community and the information as to which level of social contact restrictions Federal Ministry of Health. is adequate at which point in time in the context of the target conflict described above. Information can then be www.bib.bund.de/corona derived from this in order to ascertain whether and to what extent contact restrictions can be eased or should be The pandemic has confronted science and politics with tightened. completely new challenges that call for ad-hoc solutions. In order to implement the individual special projects, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community supports the Federal Institute for Population Research Assessment of the effects of daycare and school closures particularly in the internal and external communication of on parents and children research projects and results, in arranging special funding opportunities for individual special projects and in net- Finally, a third project addresses the effects of daycare and working with relevant partners. school closures on parents and children. In this context, the Federal Institute for Population Research also participated in a recent survey conducted by the University of Mann- heim, which used representative data to compare the pre-Covid situation with the situation in the early summer of 2020. How many women and men work in system-relevant professions and what is their pay situation in the partnership context? Who can work from home? How did the use of time for family and gainful employment change?

70 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Onur/stock.adobe.com

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 71 VI. Demography 4.0 or ‘Every age retold’

72 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Oliver Rossi/DigitalVision/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 73 Source: Federal Government/Jesco Benzel

The entire range of modern forms of communication, i including digital visual formats, is required in order to make Work4Germany is part of 4Germany, the technology the diversity of demographic issues, the challenges of and innovation taskforce for the German government demographic change and the political approaches to man- established in 2019 under the auspices of the head of aging them accessible to as wide an audience as possible. the German Chancellery, Mr Helge Braun, which was Parallel to preparing this report, the Federal Ministry of the recently acquired by the German government under the Interior, Building and Community is also offering the core name DigitalServices4Germany. The goal of this elements of its demographic policy activities in a digital first-ever pilot fellowship programme was to make Ger- format for the first time. The main objective is to make many fit for a digital and citizen-orientated future. Ten demography, as a classic cross-cutting issue, even more of the best minds in technology, including young talent- user-orientated in its external impact and, above all, to ed people, from the world of business have worked here attract the attention of younger population groups to the in so-called innovation tandems with the federal minis- issue and to involve them more actively. After all, demo- tries. Six months of structured programmes brought graphic change affects us all, both the old and the young. together the best of the startup, business, research and The idea behind the digital product is to present the topic government worlds to work on concrete, cross-function- graphically in a new, appealing ‘look & feel’ for users. A al projects of the federal administration. More about the fellow of the Work4Germany (W4G) fellowship programme details of Work4Germany can be found here: provided by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building https://work.4germany.org and Community with methodical support over a period of six months. The project is thus a further building block on the path to modernisation and digitalisation of the (federal) administration.

74 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy 4you

www.demografiepolitik.de/4you/en

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 75 VII. Looking to the future

76 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: Qi Yang/Moment/Getty Images

The summary of this legislative period is extremely mul- ti-faceted, mainly because the challenges are complex and affect many different areas of policy. This was also reflected by the many different formats. It became clear that, besides formats or levels, it is primarily the interfaces with the major socio-political issues of our time that determine demographic policy events, i.e. globalisation, digitalisation, climate change, social cohesion, integration and equality. So what do we still have to do in order to continue meeting the complex demands of the strategy in the future in the most broad and diverse manner possible?

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 77 1. Continue to apply tried-and-tested concepts

Promoting demographic security in the federal adminis- policy measures must be planned and implemented accord- tration ingly. The task of the coming legislative period is to initiate this effort on a nationwide basis. All the challenges described above also affect the public sector. Efforts to make the federal administration fit to www.demografiepolitik.de/4you/en master the challenges of demographic change and to make the public sector demographically secure must therefore gain further momentum in the new legislative period. Informing about demography and sharing knowledge The project of demographic security in the federal adminis- within Germany tration, which was launched in the current legislative period, will be continued in the years to come. On the one At national level, existing event and discussion formats hand, this involves evaluating the measures already initiated must be continued and new ones developed in order to ini- and adapting them as any given situation may require. Since tiate discussions and networking among demographic local and federal state administrations will also be affected policy stakeholders in order to exchange knowledge and by demographic developments – and tend to be affected to best practices. The focal topics should cover the entire a greater extent than the federal administration – the pro- range of fields of action contained in the demographic ject outcomes should be made available to the entire public strategy. This will enable the Federal Ministry of the Interi- sector both through increased outreach activities and or, Building and Community to live up to its special position within existing networks. The same applies to the other pil- at the interface of all demographic issues. The Demograph- lars of government, the federal and federal state legisla- ic Portal, for its part, can be a valuable source of knowledge tures and judiciaries. On the other hand, further measures in this regard and will be used as such. will have to be identified in order to counteract the impending shortage of employees and to implement these within the federal administration. In this context, the recruitment of new employees should be given just as Expanding EU-wide linking of German’s demographic much consideration as the situation of existing staff who policy must be empowered to perform their work in a healthy and motivated manner until retirement. Germany is not an island, especially in demographic terms. Developments and trends in neighbouring countries and The long-term goal is to permanently establish the current beyond often have national implications. There are also project. The public administration must permanently keep many common challenges within the EU. Apart from the an eye on demographic development, and human resources fact that many other member states, like Germany, have to

78 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy face the challenges of an ageing society, EU-wide demo- Strengthening research at the Federal Institute for Popu- graphic policy addresses specific issues, such as retirement lation Research as a firm basis for demographic policy of baby boomers from the labour market, sustainability of action social security systems or aspects of reconciling work and family life. With its demographic strategy, which has been Many of the measures and projects envisaged will only be in place since 2012, Germany is one of the few countries possible if data demonstrate that they will have an impact. that has consolidated its political approaches in the various The (demographic) political discourse often calls for a more areas of life, initiating a dialogue process across levels and evidence-based orientation of goals, decisions and manage- ministries. Based on the experience gained with this and ment measures. What’s more, accurately collected and pre- the strong conviction of the appeal of an opportunity-orien sented facts prevent populism bubbles. This is why the tated approach to demographic strategy, it is important for Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community Germany to continue to actively introduce and represent its continuously invests in research work. Basic research must demographic policy positions at European level too. At the continue to be expanded and financed in the future. The same time, it is important to learn from the creative ideas, Federal Institute for Population Research, which investi- models and approaches of other member states and to gates the causes and consequences of demographic enable their adoption for the further development of change, has an important role to play here. It provides its German demographic policy. For this reason, the European scientific expertise on causes and effects in the form of meetings initiated during this legislative period will be con- population studies, lectures as well as contributions on tinued beyond the demography conference held as part of demographic development in legislative projects and Germany’s Presidency of the European Council in order to reports prepared by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, continue networking efforts. The results of the conference Building and Community Affairs and the Federal Govern- provided valuable indicators for key cooperation areas. ment. Since the research results of the Federal Institute for Population Research form the basis for advising the Federal Government and the federal ministries, they must now be placed even more than before at the centre of policymaking Strengthening participation of the Federal Ministry of the and the visibility of the institute and its work in politics and Interior, Building and Community at international level in the public sphere must be boosted.

The recent past has shown that demographic events in Ger- many are directly linked to global developments, for example, in the area of migration. Action and exchanges at Last but not least, it takes a sound data basis and good United Nations level and dialogue with countries that share preconditions for research in order to develop and imple- our demographic profile will become increasingly impor- ment policy measures in an appropriate manner. Further tant. The previous commitment should hence be continued standardisation and systematic expansion of official sta- and deepened, both in international bodies as well as in tistics could facilitate this process. Stronger support for direct exchange with partners. The Federal Institute for comparative survey research would also make sense in Population Research, whose research focuses on interna- order to close gaps in official statistics. The creation of a tional population development, will support the Federal permanent financial basis could also support recognised Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community in this data infrastructures and programmes in such a way that endeavour. they enable comparative long-term monitoring of demographic processes.

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 79 2. Building on global developments and setting specific accents

The overall aim is to empower action in the face of demographic change, whilst also addresing other megatrends, be it digitalisation, globalisation or climate change.

The Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Commu- tional opportunities for all from the outset is also key to a nity is particularly committed to this strategic approach successful employment culture that harnesses the potential which is already laid down in the demographic strategy. of all population groups. ‘Every age counts’ remains the guiding principle and the right tone, i.e. the aspiration to make Germany strong, diverse and resilient for all generations. What will be important in the future? Managing the rush hour of life

In order for quality of life to actually become tangible and for social cohesion between young and old to have a sus- Setting the course for young people tainable link, demographic policy must set and coordinate the respective framework conditions, especially in the In an ageing society, our young are becoming an increas- middle and longest stages of life, the so-called rush hour of ingly precious and ever-larger resource. Successful demo- life. After all, there is no other phase in life during which graphic policy for this group of people would mean, for many different policy areas intertwine at the same time: example, investing even more than before in education, The key is to live an ever-longer (working) life in a healthy leading to successful qualification, both at school and at and motivated manner, while at the same time reconciling higher levels. After all, education studies show that low family and caring for relatives on the one hand and plan- education of parents often goes hand in hand with lower ning work and a personal career on the other. And here, education of children as well. Today’s youths are tomor- too, education is one of the central factors, in the form of row’s parents, but at the same time they are also the future needs-based training and further education and also as an working population and potential volunteers. It is therefore expression of lifelong learning. crucial to set the right course at an early stage in order to empower young people in a variety of ways and to open up equal opportunities for them as far as possible. This includes, for example, making funding and support deci- ...especially in the face of a new world of work sions on the basis of education-related demographic indicators. The Covid-19 pandemic has just highlighted how This is all the more true in view of long life expectancy, much inadequate investment in IT infrastructure, for exam- which also leads to a longer period of time spent in ple, can impair equal access to education. Creating educa- employment. Never before have people worked as long as

80 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy One project that combines demography and concrete political action could be a second year of education and reorientation in mid-career, between the ages of 40 and 50. Together with trade guilds, chambers, universities and further education institutions, new occupational fields could be opened up where, for example, a physically demanding occupation makes it impossible to work a further 25 years in the same field. In the case of academic professions, specialist refresher courses, the consolidation and acquisition of new knowledge, particularly with regard to new digital working methods and techniques, should become the norm rather than the exception.

Source: Harvard University Classroom they do today. Skills, motivation, resilience and priorities ...and in the family change over the course of a lifetime. At the same time, working life is becoming more complex and increasingly Employees could consider such a reorientation, for exam- characterised by change. Modern office technology, agile ple, parallel to or after they have raised their family. A working methods and working from home are now also stronger focus on family usually also requires adjusting shaping the everyday working lives of people who, just a working hours, moving the workplace to the home or even few decades ago, had to laboriously rewrite texts over and temporarily withdrawing from the job. Besides digitalisa- over again on a typewriter. The digital transformation will tion, progress and projects can also help to reconcile family also create entirely new work profiles and jobs, while other and career. Whether it is further measures in the area of tasks will gain in importance in jobs that already exist. It parental leave or tax relief, there are probably many more will hence become increasingly uncommon for us to stay in ideas in addition to these well-known instruments that a job once learned for an entire lifetime. Flexibility and the help women or couples to have the number of children ability to constantly acquire new skills and tools in a pro- they actually want without having to abandon their career fessional context will become ever more important. Educa- plans. At the same time, society expresses the necessary tion and training once acquired will not carry through an appreciation for families through its demographic strategy. entire working life. The experts agree that in future voca- tional training should be generally geared to empowering people to change jobs during their working lives.

It is not only the workforce, but also organisations that will have to face the new challenges. For both sides, continued balancing of the respective options will continue to grow in importance in the long run. The link between quality of life and prosperity is particularly evident where older workers and/or those with health problems can continue to partici- pate in working life thanks to new ways of working, and employers can benefit from their experience and productivity for longer. Source: izusek/E+/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 81 Self-determined life in old age

The goal of maintaining and promoting prosperity and quality of life for all generations means enabling participation in life for people in retirement and old age as well. One of the preconditions for this is a process that shapes the demographic debate to a particular extent, i.e. active ageing. Healthy and active ageing is a central field of action of the strategy under the social cohesion pillar. The topics addressed in this context include lifelong learning, participation, networking, civil society engagement, preventive healthcare as well as transition from working life to retirement and the like, so that active ageing is just as much of Technology at the interface of demography and health cross-sectional relevance as is demographic policy in the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community. Technological progress will help to compensate for a short- Above all, it is important to remain mobile even in old age age of labour – also due to the retirement of the baby and to be able to live in one’s own four walls for as long as boomers – and to maintain productivity and competitive- possible. Barrier-free living is an essential factor here. But, ness also in an international context. More than that, how- as the term ‘active ageing’ already implies, it is first and ever, it helps to cushion the consequences of an ageing foremost an active life that contributes significantly to society in the health and care sector, where the use of tele- longer life. This can be ensured through participation in medicine can under certain circumstances replace a visit to working life. However, many older people, including the the doctor and robots can assist healthcare workers in very elderly, perform informal and voluntary work with physically strenuous tasks. great personal commitment in the family, for instance, by looking after grandchildren, as well as outside the family, for example, as reading mentors. In this way, they make a direct economic contribution, enabling the younger genera- ...and its influence on other areas of life tion to better reconcile family and career. Civil society engagement can also be meaningful well into old age, it If digitalisation succeeds, disparities will decrease: autono- can protect against loneliness and thus contribute to a per- mously driving cars and assistance systems will help us to son’s well-being. maintain independent mobility even in old age, and house- hold robots will perform routines that become tedious in old age in the growing number of single-person house- holds. Digitally accessible events in art, culture, politics and clubs enable participation regardless of physical mobility and help prevent loneliness. In this way, we can expect a tailwind for a self-determined life in old age along with positive effects resulting from the promotion of rural areas as a liveable environment.

Managing these major issues with all citizens is not only essential for successful demographic policy, it is also key to a vibrant and future-orientated democracy.

82 A Cross-cutting View of Demographic Policy Source: picture alliance/Geisler-Fotopress

Source: Cecilie_Arcurs/E+/Getty Images Source: BSIP/Universal Images Group/Getty Images

Résumé by the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community at the end of the 19th legislative period 83 Imprint

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