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PDF Dosyası Için Tıklayınız 2017 2017 ürk Dış Politikası Yıllığı yayın hayatına başladığı 2009’dan beri küresel ve bölgesel gelişmeler ışığında Türk dış politikasının nabzını tutuyor. Türk Dış T 2017’de Türk dış politikasındaki gelişmelerin ele alındığı bu kitapta on altı makale ile birlikte bu yılla sınırlı kal- mayan beş bağımsız makale yer alıyor. Birinci bölüm Burhanettin Duran’ın “15 Temmuz Darbe Girişiminin Türkiye’nin İç ve Dış Politikası Siyasetine Etkisi” başlıklı çalışması ile başlıyor. “Türk-Rus İlişkile- rinde İkinci Bahar Kalıcı mı?” başlıklı makalesiyle Nurşin Ateşoğlu Güney Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki yakınlaşmanın muhtemel ge- leceğini analiz etti. Tuncay Kardaş “Trump Dönemi Türkiye-ABD Yıllığı Krizinin Analizi” isimli çalışması ile yeni ABD Başkanı Trump’la YILLIĞI TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI birlikte derinleşen iki ülke ilişkilerini ele aldı. Hakkı Uygur An- Editörler: Burhanettin Duran, Kemal İnat, Mustafa Caner kara-Tahran ilişkilerini analiz ettiği “Arap Baharı Sonrası Bölgesel Gelişmeler Işığında Türk-İran İlişkileri” isimli makalesinde ilişki- lerin seyrine odaklandı. Çağatay Özdemir ve Neslihan Saydam’ın kaleme aldığı “Türkiye-ABD İlişkilerinde Washington’daki Türk Lobisinin Rolü” başlıklı makalesinde ise iki ülke ilişkilerini belirle- mede “Türk lobisi”nin etkisini değerlendirdi. 2017’de muhtelif alanlarda yaşanan dış politika gelişmeleri ise ikinci bölümde analiz edildi. Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politikalarını Kemal İnat, Mustafa Caner, Recep Tayyip Gürler, Ahmet Arda Şensoy, Talha İsmail Duman, İsmail Numan Telci, İsmail Akdoğan ve Haydar Oruç inceledi. Türkiye’nin ABD ve AB politikalarını sırasıyla Kılıç Buğra Kanat ve Filiz Cicioğlu, Rusya ve Kafkasya po- litikasını da Özgür Tüfekçi kaleme aldı. Aynı şekilde Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs politikasını Enes Bayraklı ve Hacı Mehmet Boyraz, Balkan- lar politikasını Mehmet Uğur Ekinci ve Dilek Kütük, Afrika po- litikasını Abdurrahim Sıradağ, Orta Asya ve Pakistan politikasını Tamer Kaşıkçı, Asya Pasifik politikasını Muhammet Hamza Uçar ve Latin Amerika politikasını da Mustafa Yetim yazdı. Sadık Ünay ve Şerif Dilek ise Türk dış politikasının ekonomi politiğini ele aldı. SETA Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı www.setav.org | [email protected] 9 789752 459755 TÜRK DIŞ POLITIKASI YILLIĞI 2017 TÜRK DIŞ POLITIKASI YILLIĞI 2017 EDİTÖRLER BURHANETTİN DURAN KEMAL İNAT MUSTAFA CANER SETA SETA Yayınları 109 ISBN: 978-975-2459-75-5 © 2018 SET Vakfı İktisadi İşletmesi 1. Baskı: Nisan 2018, İstanbul Bu yayının tüm hakları SETA Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı’na aittir. SETA’nın izni olmaksızın yayının tümünün veya bir kısmının elektronik veya mekanik (fotokopi, kayıt ve bilgi depolama vd.) yollarla basımı, yayımı, çoğaltılması veya dağıtımı yapılamaz. Kaynak göstermek suretiyle alıntı yapılabilir. Editör: Mehmet Akif Memmi Düzelti: Bahar Albayrak, Hasan Hüseyin Çağıran, Mustafa Said İşeri Tasarım ve Kapak: Hasan Suat Olgun Baskı ve Cilt: Turkuvaz Haberleşme ve Yayıncılık A.Ş., İstanbul İletişim: SETA Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı Nenehatun Cd. No: 66 GOP Çankaya 06700 Ankara Tel: +90 312 551 21 00 | Faks: +90 312 551 21 90 www.setav.org | [email protected] İÇİNDEKİLER ÖNSÖZ 7 1. BÖLÜM TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI ÜZERİNE BAĞIMSIZ MAKALELER 11 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişiminin Türkiye’nin İç ve Dış Politikasına Etkisi BURHANETTİN DURAN 13 Türk-Rus İlişkilerinde İkinci Bahar Kalıcı mı? NURŞİN ATEŞOĞLU GÜNEY 45 Trump Dönemi Türkiye-ABD Krizinin Analizi TUNCAY KARDAŞ 65 Arap Baharı Sonrası Bölgesel Gelişmeler Işığında Türkiye-İran İlişkileri HAKKI UYGUR 89 Türkiye-ABD İlişkilerinde Washington’daki Türk Lobisinin Rolü ÇAĞATAY ÖZDEMİR | NESLİHAN SAYDAM 115 2. BÖLÜM TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASININ 2017 GELİŞMELERİ 137 Türkiye’nin İran Politikası KEMAL İNAT | MUSTAFA CANER 139 Türkiye’nin Irak Politikası RECEP TAYYİP GÜRLER 163 Türkiye’nin Suriye ve Lübnan Politikası AHMET ARDA ŞENSOY | TALHA İSMAIL DUMAN 185 Türkiye’nin Mısır Politikası İSMAIL NUMAN TELCI 213 Türkiye’nin Körfez Ülkeleri ve Yemen Politikası İSMAIL AKDOĞAN 231 Türkiye’nin İsrail, Filistin ve Ürdün Politikası HAYDAR ORUÇ 263 Türkiye’nin ABD Politikası KILIÇ BUĞRA KANAT 287 Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği Politikası FİLİZ CİCİOĞLU 309 Türkiye’nin Rusya ve Kafkasya Politikası ÖZGÜR TÜFEKÇİ 335 Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs Politikası ENES BAYRAKLI | HACI MEHMET BOYRAZ 355 Türkiye’nin Balkanlar Politikası MEHMET UĞUR EKİNCİ | DİLEK KÜTÜK 375 Türkiye’nin Afrika Politikası ABDURRAHİM SIRADAĞ 399 Türkiye’nin Orta Asya ve Pakistan Politikası TAMER KAŞIKÇI 419 Türkiye’nin Asya Pasifik Politikası MUHAMMET HAMZA UÇAR 439 Türkiye’nin Latin Amerika Politikası MUSTAFA YETİM 457 Türk Dış Politikasının Ekonomi Politiği SADIK ÜNAY | ŞERİF DİLEK 475 ÖNSÖZ Türk Dış Politikası Yıllığı yayın hayatına başladığı 2009’dan beri küresel ve bölgesel gelişmeler ışığında Türk dış politikasının nabzını tutmaya devam etmektedir. Yine yoğun bir çalışma ve emeğin ürünü olarak sizlerle buluşan elinizdeki eser ile birlikte yıllık dizimiz dokuzuncu kitabına ulaşmaktadır. Eserimizin geçen zaman içerisinde Uluslararası İlişkiler alanında çalışan uzman, akademisyen ve öğrenciler kadar alan dışındaki meraklılar ve araş- tırmacıların da başvuru kaynaklarından biri haline geldiğine mut- lulukla şahit olmaktayız. Her sayıda tekraren vurgulandığı gibi makaleler temelde bilgi yoğunluklu olup olayların yorumlanması hususunda okuyucuya alan bırakmaktadır. Böylelikle daha nesnel içeriğe sahip ve aktüa- litenin çeldiriciliğine direnebilen uzun ömürlü bir yapıt ortaya çıkmaktadır. Her biri yazdıkları konularda uzman olan yazarları- mız çalışmalarını uzmanlıklarının getirdiği bütünlüklü bir çerçeve içerisinde sunmakta ve analitik bakışları ile zenginleştirmektedir. Bu anlamda da kuru ve bağlam dışı enformasyondan ziyade man- tıksal bir yapı içerisinde anlam kazanan bir bilgi bütünü ortaya çıkmaktadır. 2017’de Türk dış politikasındaki gelişmelerin ele alındığı bu kitapta on altı makale ile birlikte bu yılla sınırlı kalmayan beş bağımsız makale yer almaktadır. Söz konusu bağımsız makaleler Türkiye’nin en can alıcı dış politika gündemlerini daha geniş bir bağlamda masaya yatırmaktadır. Bağımsız makalelerin yer aldığı birinci bölüm Burhanettin Duran’ın “15 Temmuz Darbe Girişiminin Türkiye’nin İç ve Dış 8 / ÖNSÖZ Politikasına Etkisi” başlıklı çalışması ile başlamaktadır. 15 Tem- muz darbe girişiminin üzerinden yaklaşık iki yıl geçmesine rağ- men darbe sonrası Türk dış politikasında yaşanan dönüşümün etkileri belirleyici olmaya devam etmektedir. Duran bu eserinde meşum darbe girişiminin Türk siyasetinde yarattığı konjonktürel ve yapısal dönüşümlere mercek tutmaktadır. “Türk-Rus İlişkile- rinde İkinci Bahar Kalıcı mı?” başlıklı makalesiyle Nurşin Ateşoğ- lu Güney Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki yakınlaşmanın muhtemel geleceğini analiz etmektedir. Tuncay Kardaş “Trump Dönemi Türkiye-ABD Krizinin Analizi” isimli çalışması ile yeni ABD Başkanı Trump’la birlikte derinleşen iki ülke ilişkilerindeki krizin muhtelif dinamiklerini ele almaktadır. Hakkı Uygur Ankara-Tah- ran ilişkilerini analiz ettiği “Arap Baharı Sonrası Bölgesel Geliş- meler Işığında Türk-İran İlişkileri” isimli makalesinde kriz ve normalleşme ekseninde ilişkilerin seyrine odaklanmaktadır. Ça- ğatay Özdemir ve Neslihan Saydam’ın kaleme aldığı “Türki- ye-ABD İlişkilerinde Washington’daki Türk Lobisinin Rolü” isimli birinci bölümün son makalesinde ise iki ülke ilişkilerini belirlemede “Türk lobisi”nin ne derece etkili olduğu sorusuna ce- vap aranmaktadır. 2017’de muhtelif alanlarda yaşanan dış politika gelişmeleri ise ikinci bölümde analiz edilmektedir. Türkiye’nin Ortadoğu politi- kaları Kemal İnat, Mustafa Caner, Recep Tayyip Gürler, Ahmet Arda Şensoy, Talha İsmail Duman, İsmail Numan Telci, İsmail Akdoğan ve Haydar Oruç imzalı makalelerde incelenmiştir. Tür- kiye’nin ABD ve AB politikaları sırasıyla Kılıç Buğra Kanat ve Filiz Cicioğlu, Rusya ve Kafkasya politikası da Özgür Tüfekçi ta- rafından kaleme alınmıştır. Aynı şekilde Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs poli- tikası Enes Bayraklı ve Hacı Mehmet Boyraz, Balkanlar politikası Mehmet Uğur Ekinci ve Dilek Kütük, Afrika politikası Abdurra- him Sıradağ, Orta Asya ve Pakistan politikası Tamer Kaşıkçı, TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI YILLIĞI 2017 / 9 Asya Pasifik politikası Muhammet Hamza Uçar ve Latin Amerika politikası da Mustafa Yetim tarafından yazılmıştır. Sadık Ünay ve Şerif Dilek ise yazdıkları makalede Türk dış politikasının ekono- mi politiğini ele almışlardır. Yıllığın bu sayısının yayımlanması hususunda yazılarıyla kat- kıda bulunan değerli yazarlarımıza ve kitabımıza teveccüh göste- ren saygıdeğer okurlarımıza teşekkürü bir borç biliyoruz. Burhanettin Duran Kemal İnat Mustafa Caner 1. BÖLÜM TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI ÜZERİNE BAĞIMSIZ MAKALELER TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI YILLIĞI 2017 / 13 15 TEMMUZ DARBE GİRİŞİMİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN İÇ VE DIŞ POLİTİKASINA ETKİSİ BURHANETTİN DURAN Prof. Dr., İbn Haldun Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi ve SETA Genel Koordinatörü GİRİŞ Türkiye’nin demokrasi tarihi ülkenin geleceğine kimin karar vereceği hususundaki sivil-asker mücadelesinin seyri olarak okuna- bilir. Başka bir ifadeyle seçilmiş siyasetçilerin atanmış bürokratların vesayetini aşma çabaları şeklinde görülebilir. Halkın seçimiyle işba- şına gelse de siyasetçiler askeri müdahalelerin belirlediği anayasal çerçevede siyaset yapmak zorunda kalmıştır. Bu zorunluluk kimi zaman asker kökenli Mustafa Kemal ve arkadaşlarının Cumhuri- yet’in kurulmasında etkili olmasına bağlanır. Ancak daha önemlisi çok partili hayata geçildikten sonra bile bürokratik vesayetin devam etme imkanı bulmasıdır. Kuşkusuz bunu sağlayan en önemli olay Demokrat Parti (DP) iktidarını
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