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April 17Th, 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: ARIZONA 2018 US SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY SUMMARY

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April 17Th, 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: ARIZONA 2018 US SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY SUMMARY April 17th, 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: ARIZONA 2018 US SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY SUMMARY This memorandum is a summary of an automated voice recorded survey of 755 likely Republican primary voters in Arizona. The interviews were conducted on April 11th, 12th and 15th, 2018. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The results were weighted to reflect the voter turnout demographics of past Republican primary elections in Arizona. The full survey crosstabs and a presentation of the results can be downloaded at www.MagellanStrategies.com. Key Findings Ø Congresswoman Martha McSally currently leads the field of U.S. Senate Republican candidates to replace Senator Jeff Flake with 36% support, followed by former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio with 26%, former State Senator Kelli Ward has 25% support, the generic “other” candidate has 6% support and 7% are undecided. Ø The top three issues Republican primary voters want President Trump and Congress to address is enforcing immigration laws (33%), creating jobs and growing the economy (17%) and protecting Second Amendment rights (12%). Ø Among Republican primary voters, 77% think Sen. John McCain should retire and only 19% think he should continue serving in the U.S. Senate. Arizona US Senate Republican Primary Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup* All All Marr Sing All Marr Sing Trump Trad Evan Voters Men Men Men Wom Wom Wom 65+ Rep Rep Rep McSally +10 +11 +14 -8 +7 +10 -9 +10 -4 +19 +7 Margin McSally 36% 38% 43% 28% 34% 37% 28% 36% 32% 41% 36% Arpaio 26% 25% 20% 36% 27% 22% 37% 26% 36% 20% 24% Ward 25% 27% 29% 22% 23% 27% 16% 23% 26% 22% 29% Other 6% 4% 4% 4% 8% 8% 9% 7% 1% 10% 3% Undec. 7% 6% 4% 10% 8% 6% 10% 8% 5% 7% 8% *Sample subgroup percentages: married men 33%, single men 15%, married women 32%, single women 18%, 65 or older 42%, Trump Republican 40%, traditional Republican 26%, evangelical Republican 21%. Magellan Strategies Arizona 2018 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Summary 2 Field Dates: April 11th, 12th and 15th, 2018, 755n, MoE +/- 3.57% Observations of the Arizona Senate Republican Primary Ballot Test To understand how this primary election is taking shape, it is helpful to review the ballot test among the three different groups of Republicans that constitute the sample. Among respondents who identify as a “Trump Republican” (40%), Joe Arpaio (36%) leads Martha McSally (32%) by 4 points and Kelli Ward (26%) by 10 points. Among respondents that identify as a “traditional Republican” (26% of sample), Martha McSally (41%) has a commanding lead of 19 points over Kelli Ward (22%) and 21 points over Joe Arpaio (20%). Lastly, among respondents identifying as an evangelical, Christian conservative (21% of sample), Martha McSally (36%) leads Kelli Ward (29%) by seven points. Although the Election Day is a long way off, if Martha McSally can maintain her support levels among these three groups of Republican voters she will be in a good position to win. However, if Joe Arpaio or Kelli Ward exit the race before Election Day it is very possible Martha McSally’s lead could contract and turn the race into a very close head to head contest. We shall see. U.S. Senate Republican Primary Candidate Image Ratings Among all three candidates, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is the most well- known and has the strongest image rating with 67% having a favorable opinion of him and 28% having an unfavorable opinion. Martha McSally Image Rating by Voter Subgroup All All Marr Sing All Marr Sing Trump Trad Evan Voters Men Men Men Wom Wom Wom 65+ Rep Rep Rep Favorable 48% 52% 52% 48% 45% 50% 34% 43% 51% 50% 47% Unfavor. 24% 25% 25% 24% 23% 23% 23% 25% 24% 24% 21% No Opin. 19% 15% 14% 19% 23% 19% 29% 23% 16% 22% 19% Nvr Hrd. 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 14% 9% 9% 4% 13% Joe Arpaio Image Rating by Voter Subgroup All All Marr Sing All Marr Sing Trump Trad Evan Voters Men Men Men Wom Wom Wom 65+ Rep Rep Rep Favorable 67% 69% 68% 72% 65% 65% 63% 63% 84% 52% 75% Unfavor. 28% 26% 29% 22% 29% 30% 28% 29% 13% 43% 19% No Opin. 5% 5% 3% 6% 5% 4% 8% 7% 3% 5% 5% Nvr Hrd. 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% Kelli Ward Image Rating by Voter Subgroup All All Marr Sing All Marr Sing Trump Trad Evan Voters Men Men Men Wom Wom Wom 65+ Rep Rep Rep Fav. 46% 53% 53% 53% 39% 42% 34% 36% 54% 40% 49% Unfav. 26% 27% 30% 23% 26% 27% 23% 29% 19% 36% 22% No Opin. 21% 15% 12% 21% 26% 25% 29% 25% 21% 21% 19% Nvr Hrd. 7% 5% 5% 3% 9% 6% 14% 10% 6% 3% 10% Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 Magellan Strategies Arizona 2018 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Summary 3 Field Dates: April 11th, 12th and 15th, 2018, 755n, MoE +/- 3.57% Top Federal Issues Arizona Republican Primary Voters Want Addressed To truly understand the national issues and problems that motivate Republican primary voters, we asked an open-ended verbatim question before reading them a list of issues to choose from. The verbatim responses are attached to this document and we encourage you to read them. In summary, the top three issues that respondents want President Trump and the Republican Congress to address the most are immigration and the border wall followed by jobs and the cost of healthcare. The following table shows a ranking of the listed issues that was read to respondents after the open-ended verbatim question. “And from the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that President Trump and the Republican Congress should be addressing the most? All All Marr Sing All Marr Sing Trump Trad Evan Voters Men Men Men Wom Wom Wom 65+ Rep Rep Rep Immigration 33% 31% 30% 31% 35% 37% 33% 31% 47% 17% 31% Jobs & Economy 17% 19% 18% 21% 16% 16% 14% 18% 14% 30% 10% 2nd Amendment 12% 15% 14% 17% 10% 10% 11% 7% 11% 11% 18% Reduce Spending 8% 9% 11% 5% 7% 6% 8% 9% 6% 12% 6% Repeal Obamacare 6% 7% 8% 4% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 12% National Security 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 7% 10% 4% 7% 5% New Trade Deals 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 8% 6% 5% 9% 2% Social Issues 3% 2% 1% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 1% 2% 7% No Opinion 9% 6% 7% 6% 10% 12% 8% 10% 7% 7% 9% *Sample subgroup percentages: married men 33%, single men 15%, married women 32%, single women 18%, 65 or older 42%, Trump Republican 40%, traditional Republican 26%, evangelical Republican 21%. Donald Trump Job Approval President Trump’s job approval is very strong among Arizona Republican primary voters, with 82% approving of the job the President is doing and only 14% disapproving. The President can do no wrong in the eyes of the Republican base in Arizona. For the Republican candidates for United States Senate, there is clearly upside in support for anyone that can demonstrate loyalty and support for the President and his agenda. Congressional Republican Job Approval With the Republican Party in full control of Congress, we prefer to ask voters if they approve or disapprove of “the job the Republicans in Congress are doing”, rather than the traditional “the job Congress is doing”. Among likely Arizona Republican primary voters only 23% approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, 65% disapprove of the job they are doing and 12% were unsure or did not have an opinion. Sen. Jeff Flake Job Approval Among all respondents, only 18% approve of the job Jeff flake is doing, 74% disapprove of the job he is doing and 8% were unsure or do not have an opinion. Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 Magellan Strategies Arizona 2018 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Summary 4 Field Dates: April 11th, 12th and 15th, 2018, 755n, MoE +/- 3.57% Gov. Doug Ducey Job Approval Unlike some other elected officials in Arizona, Governor Doug Ducey has a strong job approval rating among Republican primary voters with 59% approving of the job he is doing, 26% disapproving and 15% of respondents not having an opinion. Sen. John McCain Job Approval and Opinions of Retiring from U.S. Senate Among all respondents, only 24% approve of the job John McCain is doing, 72% disapprove of the job he is doing, and 4% are unsure or do not have an opinion. The survey included a question asking respondents their opinion of Senator McCain retiring or continuing to serve in the United States Senate considering his health condition. Among all respondents, 77% thought the Senator should retire and only 19% thought he should continue to serve. Conclusion The survey finds Congresswoman Martha McSally as the current frontrunner in the race to succeed Senator Jeff Flake. However, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and former State Senator Kelli Ward are formidable candidates with very respectable amounts of voter support. We are still a long way from Election Day and are likely to see changes as candidates spend time and resources appealing to likely Republican primary voters. We look forward to tracking this contest into August.
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