UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs Sandhagen

Bettor’s Guide by SCOTO Bets

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Fights Covered

Page 2 of 16 Table of Contents

Rothwell vs. Tybura………..………..………………………………..…..pg. 4

(14) Barboza vs Amirkhani…..……..………………………..……..……..pg. 7

(1) Moraes vs (4) Sandhagen…………………..……..…………..………pg. 10

Parlays and Bonus Plays……..………………………………….…….…pg. 13

Upcoming UFC Events……….…………………………………………pg. 14

Disclaimer………………………….……..………..……………………pg. 15

Page 3 of 16 Rothwell vs. Tybura

Heavyweight Bout

This is an interesting fight between two experienced heavyweights, both looking to get back into contendership. Each fighter enters riding a two-fight win streak, and each has really only suffered losses to high-quality opponents. Rothwell’s last five, dating back to 2018, include a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux, a knockout of Stefan Struve, and three unanimous decision losses to , Blagoy Ivanov and Andrei Arlovsky, comprising the fall from his peak as the #4 contender in the world. Rothwell has 50 professional fights, has over a decade of octagon experience and has been a professional for almost 20 years. Tybura has fought in the UFC 11 times in his four-year career, and has about 10 years of professional experience. Rothwell is a measured, fundamentally sound Thai boxer. He uses teep kicks to keep his distance, and times his attacks moving in and out. He picks his spots to press but, when he decides to go, he’s very smart with his footwork and the angles he takes to cut off the octagon, and pin his opponents against the fence where he can tee off with his hooks, working opponents chins with both hands. He has shown the ability to control the clinch and land some punches there. When positional pressure isn’t working, Rothwell looks to get inside by threatening uppercuts and instead leaning in with his lead overhand. Because of his patient style, he tends to be susceptible to high- pressure and pace. He has a wide guard and doesn’t defend his body well, so he’s vulnerable to anyone with Tale of the Tape quick jabs and straights. Once those shots start landing, he tends to panic and leave himself open to bigger, more powerful strikes. He’s also vulnerable to counter- strikers. He succeeds when he’s moving forward, but he isn’t quick enough to defend himself against the faster counter-strikers in this division. He’s shown a vulnerability to leg kicks, and kicks to the body. He doesn’t want fights going to the ground, but he does have a mean bulldog choke to lean on if opponents shoot in on his legs. Tybura does invest in leg kicks, but I don’t see them being a factor in this one. He’s also a kick boxer but is less disciplined than Rothwell. Tybura will have a speed advantage, and will look to establish his jab early in the fight. In his recent fights, Tybura has shown the kind of pressure early that Rothwell tends to struggle with. He’s been mixing up his strikes to the head and body, moving forward and throwing combinations on the way in. He has threatened with his head kicks, and has gone for takedowns and worked some impressive ground striking. When he has had to, he has slowed down fights getting into the clinch, controlling position and landing knees before working for takedowns. He also sets up single leg takedowns by threatening with his jab.

Page 4 of 16 Tybura holds a black belt in jiu jitsu and will likely have the grappling advantage. There are two bets I like in this fight: the over, and the Tybura money line. Tybura doesn’t fight at a fast enough pace to knock Rothwell out early, but he will apply enough pressure to give him fits. If Rothwell does start landing, Tybura will be able to stifle his progress by wrestling and rolling. All of Rothwell’s last five fights have made it past the 2.5 rounds mark, and four of Tybura’s last five have as well. I think Tybura is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist, despite being the less- experienced of the two. In order for Rothwell to be successful, he has to be first to the punch. He just isn’t as fast as Rothwell’s Last Five Tybura and is going to find himself backing up rather than moving forward, not the style of fight he’s most comfortable in. Once he starts pressing back, he’s going to get tied up. It’s going to be a back-and-forth fight and Rothwell will have his moments, but I’m confident that Tybura will be getting the better of most of the exchanges.

Tybura’s Last Five

Page 5 of 16 The Picks

High Confidence Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds -155 5.5u/3.55u

Confident Pick: Tybura Moneyline +130 3.5u/4.55u

Value Play: Tybura Inside the Distance +480 1.0u/4.0u

Page 6 of 16 (14) Barboza vs. Amirkhani

Featherweight Bout

Edson Barboza comes into this fight pretty desperately needing a win, carrying a three-fight losing streak and having lost five of his last six. Barboza’s lone recent win was over a quality opponent (Dan Hooker,) as have been all of his recent losses. Dating back to 2014, Barboza is 7-8, but has lost to Donald Cerrone, Tony Ferguson, Khabib, Kevin Lee, Gaethje, and then Paul Felder and Dan Ige, each by split decision. Barboza’s opponent, Makwan “Mr. Finland” Amirkhani is now 6-2 in the UFC, getting back into the win column with a round one anaconda choke victory over Danny Henry in July. He’s a submission artist who has tapped legit black belts early in fights. Mr Finland has been at least competitive in all of his fights and has shown excellent jiu jitsu skills in his submission victories. He has great timing to his strikes sand has ways of getting opponents to open themselves up to clean shots. He’s also opened himself up to some clean shots and knockdowns, and fights a very high-risk/high- reward style on his feet, which he feels like he can afford because he has a strong chin. Thats a dangerous game to play against Barboza, who has 9 career knockouts and some devastating power for this division. Amirkhani usually looks to get fights to the ground immediately. He has strong double leg takedowns both in the open Tale of the Tape and from the clinch against the fence. He’s very strong and can keep opponents on the mat for long periods of time. Attempting submissions and trying to keep opponents on the canvas usually costs Amirkhani a lot of energy. This causes him to be even more vulnerable later in fights than he is in the first round. In this fight, if he doesn’t find a submission in the first or second round, he’ll likely be knocked out or lose a decision. Against Shane Burgos, Amirkhani was so depleted by the third round that Burgos was just toying with him before knocking him out. The way he fights doesn’t look great one scorecards because he doesn’t throw a lot of strikes and is constantly moving backwards, unless he’s shooting in on the legs. Barboza is a highlight reel kickboxer, and isn’t going to want this fight anywhere near the ground. He’ll likely use his jab and leg kicks to keep Amirkhani off of him early and create striking exchanges. Barboza thrives when he can move in and out and land combinations punctuated with kicks. He’s a far more intelligent and sophisticated striker than Amirkhani. Barboza’s takedown defense is going to be tested. I think there are a few ways this fight can go but none of them involve this fight going the distance.

Page 7 of 16 Barboza’s investment in leg kicks could add up if he survives the early grappling storm from Amirkhani. If this happens, I think Barboza will find a late knockout over a depleted and injured Amirkhani. The other way he might find a knockout is catching Amirkhani on the way into a shot so, regardless, Barboza by KO is the most likely result. Amirkhani by SUB is worth a flier, because it’s silly not to play that in every single one of his fights, it’s all he’s looking for, and I think it’s more likely than oddsmakers are giving him credit for. Another sneaky possibility is Amirkhani by Barboza’s Last Five KO,/TKO. The only way I think this happens is if he lands a flying knee, which Barboza has been susceptible to in the past. Barboza’s gas tank isn’t all that much deeper than Amirkhani’s so it’s definitely possible.

Amirkhani’s Last Five

Page 8 of 16 The Picks

High Confidence Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds -130 8.5u/6.5u

Confident Pick: Barboza by KO/TKO +135 3.0u/4.05u

Value Play: Amirkhani Inside the Distance +380 1.5u/5.7u

Page 9 of 16 (1) Moraes vs. (4) Sandhagen

Bantamweight Bout

In my opinion, the division is the second-most exciting division in the UFC right now, behind Welterweight. 135 is absolutely loaded with talent and star power, and the #1 and #4 contenders are no exception. Marlon Moraes has 11 finishes to his record, mostly knockouts, and is looking to get back to a bantamweight title fight after being finished by in his last attempt at the belt. has 7 finishes of his 12 career wins, and is coming off of just the second loss of his career, by first round rear naked choke to , who will be fighting for the title within the next few months. I think this fight is properly priced, Sandhagen being a -140 favorite while Moraes comes in as a slight underdog at +110. Sandhagen has a long frame for this division and will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage against Moraes. Sadnhagen’s a well-rounded, intelligent fighter who can finish fights standing or on the ground. He’s a patient striker with smooth movement and deceptive setups, and whose pace increases as his fights go on. He very rarely throws a strike without setting it up with jabs and feints. He uses his jab and leg kicks to establish his range and set up his hooks and uppercuts, but he stands at boxing range, not kickboxing range. This is because he’s setting up his punches and elbows, he really only throws kicks from the outside. Tale of the Tape He throws a flying knee almost once every round. Sandhagen has a great understanding of when to pressure and how to keep his opponents guessing, despite his relatively fundamental variety of attacks. He avoids head damage well and his chin has held up when he has been hit. He does have a tendency to keep his hands low on the way in and rely on his head movement to avoid damage. His takedown defense isn’t great, but he never panics. He’s a jiu jitsu brown belt and is more than comfortable scrambling on the ground and is dangerous if he takes his opponent’s back. He’s an intelligent jiu jitsu player who can execute armbars, kimuras and leg locks as well as his basic chokes. His early investments in leg kicks tend to add up over the course of his fights, and he usually looks just as fresh in the third as he does in the first. I’m fairly confident his conditioning will hold up over five rounds. One of the determining factors of this fight will be how well Moraes checks Sandhagen’s low kicks. Marlon checks leg kicks well and throws strong ones himself, so there may not be any advantage in that department. Sandhagen has never been knocked out, but Moraes is a threat to

Page 10 of 16 be the first to do it. Sandhagen has shown a tendency to get tagged early in fights against guys with less power than Moraes. He can’t afford to do that against Magic Marlon, who has six first- round KO’s in his career. All he needs is the slightest opening to finish a fight, like his straight knee (adjusted from a switch kick attempt) that knocked Aljamain Sterling out cold. Moraes is a shifty kick boxer and succeeds both moving forward and as a counter- striker. He has quick, clean strikes and doesn’t waste any motion. When he has Moraes’ Last Five a reach disadvantage, he looks to pop in and out of the pocket, working the head and the body. He’s willing to eat a shot to land two or three, but he is good at avoiding damage on his way in. He has disgusting right hooks and uppercuts and can put opponents on the canvas at any moment. On the ground, Moraes is primarily looking to finish fight by knockout, but he does have one finish by guillotine against Raphael Assunçāo. Assunçāo isn’t the jiu jitsu player that Sandhagen is, but Moraes is a legit black belt. The biggest question going into this is whether or not Moraes is going to move forward. In his only fight since being knocked out by Cejudo, Moraes was backed down by Jose Aldo for all fifteen minutes, and the fight really could have gone either way. He was able to succeed countering Aldo’s attacks, but I’m much more confident in Sandhagen to get the better of the exchanges as the fight goes on.

Sandhagen’s Last Five

Page 11 of 16 The Picks

Confident Pick: Sandhagen Moneyline -140 6.5u/2.9u

Value Play: Sandhagen by Decision +300 1.5u/4.5u

Hedge Play: Moraes by KO/TKO +300 1.5u/4.5u

Page 12 of 16 Parlays

Main/Co-Main 2-Leg Barboza vs Amirkhani Under 2.5 Rounds -130 Sandhagen Moneyline -140 Parlay +203: 2.0u/4.06u

Dogs Parlay Egger Moneyline +160 Bhullar Moneyline +200 Tybura Moneyline +130 Parlay +1694: 1.0u/16.94u

High Confidence Play Parlay Daukaus vs. Nascimento Under 2.5 Rounds -150 Tybura vs Rothwell Over 2.5 Rounds -155 Barboza vs Amirkhani Under 2.5 Rounds -130 Parlay +387: 1.5u/5.77u Bonus Plays

Main Card:

Tom Aspinall to Win in Round One EV 2.5u/2.5u

Du Plessis vs Perez Under 2.5 Rounds -130 2.6u/2.0u

Prelims:

Egger Moneyline +160 1.5u/2.4u

Omar Morales Moneyline -155 4.0u/2.58u

Daukaus vs. Nascimento Under 2.5 Rounds -150 6.0u/4.0u *High Confidence Play

Bhullar Moneyline +200 2.5u/5.0u

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Upcoming UFC Events

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