Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs & Plant Health Agency Advice Services Team - International Disease Monitoring

Updated Outbreak Assessment #2 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in The Netherlands and West Europe

30 October 2020 Ref: VITT/1200 HPAI in Europe

Disease Report

Since our last report on 22 October, The Netherlands has reported an outbreak of HPAI H5 in poultry approximately 20km west of Nijmegen. There were 35,750 on the holding, 400 of which were affected, the rest were destroyed and carcasses disposed of in line with Council Directive 2005/94/EC. A 3km Surveillance Zone (SZ) and 10km Protection Zone have been established and nine further poultry premises identified and screened within the SZ, though none were displaying clinical signs of infection. The results are expected soon. The outbreak was 50km to the west of the first case of H5N8 reported in wild birds on 20th October.

The Netherlands have also reported a further case of HPAI H5N8 in wild birds, a Eurasian ( penelope) found dead in a wetland area by the coast, approximately 50km west of the first case in wild birds on 22 October, disease was confirmed by their national reference laboratory on 26 October.

Germany have reported a case in a wild on 30 October. A Eurasian Wigeon was found ill in Hamburg, which subsequently tested positive for HPAI and was euthanised. Germany have been on high alert for HPAI since the beginning of October (FLI, 2020) and increased their surveillance efforts.

There have been further outbreaks of HPAI H5N8 reported in Russia, two outbreaks in poultry affecting 280,000 and 1,200 birds were confirmed in the west of the country on 27 October; this follows previous outbreaks in poultry and cases in wild waterbirds in southern central Russia, and along the border into Kazakhstan. In addition the same virus as reported in Kazakhstan (Offlu, 2020) has been confirmed in poultry in Iraq by the IRL for Avian Influenza at APHA.

1Trade Control and Expert System 1 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Animal & Plant Health Agency Advice Services Team - International Disease Monitoring

Situation Assessment

The detection of HPAI H5N8 in poultry and additional cases in wild birds in the Netherlands and the wild bird case in Germany is significant, particularly at this time of year; and it is likely to indicate wider infection in the local wild bird population. The Eurasian Wigeon is strongly migratory and is a common winter visitor in Great Britain. This is the first report this season of the virus in migratory wild birds in west Europe. Typically, the birds (including ducks, geese and swans) may be infected but do not necessarily show high case fatality rates and therefore less likely to be picked up during passive surveillance. Nevertheless, based on a small sample size amongst wild waterfowl with the current virus, passive surveillance for early detection has an important role to play. Further, there is uncertainty of the actual levels of passive surveillance being conducted in wild birds at present across Europe.

In GB the sensitivity of surveillance has been increased in recent days to ensure collection and analyses of targeted species of wild birds (essentially ducks, geese, swans, gulls and birds of prey) known to carry risk of infection with H5 HPAI viruses. Single dead birds of target species where possible will be collected and tested. Several systems are in place including working through NGOs (non-governmental organisation) and members of the

1Trade Control and Expert System 2 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Animal & Plant Health Agency Advice Services Team - International Disease Monitoring public reporting wild bird mortality (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/avian-influenza-bird- flu#advice-for-the-public).

The cases reported in southern central Russia and border with Kazakhstan are of note, a similar series of outbreaks was reported in the same region in 2005/2006 and 2016/2017, which preceded a subsequent extensive HPAI event in Europe.

The migration season for wild waterfowl to overwinter in the UK has started, and will reach a peak usually around December to January, but this is weather-dependent. Generally the Netherlands has a far higher number of migratory birds during this period than the UK, but cold weather on the Continent can encourage birds to move across to the British Isles.

Preliminary analyses available indicates strong similarity amongst these viruses across a broad region and they can be distinguished from other contemporaneously circulating viruses including those associated with widespread infection in the first six months of this year across Europe. This information indicates a relatively large infection pressure and therefore continuing risk for further incursions and spread. We would expect to see typical patterns of high mortality in chickens and turkeys, as well as some mortality in ducks and geese.

The reporting of HPAI H5N8 in poultry in the EU is not surprising, given the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) alert issued on 30 September (ECDC, 2020), which also confirms the risk of transmission to the general public is very low with this particular strain.

According to data available on TRACES1, GB has imported two consignments of live poultry and seven consignments of hatching eggs from areas approximately 20km away from the poultry outbreak in the Netherlands, in the weeks prior to and after detection of disease. A transport ban has been placed on 25 poultry farmers within a 10km radius of the outbreak.

Conclusion

As a consequence of the poultry outbreak in the Netherlands, the wild bird cases in the Netherlands and Germany, and the likely migration routes to the UK, the risk of HPAI incursion in wild birds is MEDIUM (i.e. no change at present). The overall risk of infection of poultry in the UK remains LOW; but the risk of introduction to individual premises depends upon the level of biosecurity implemented on farm, to prevent direct or indirect contact with wild birds. We recommend biosecurity measures should be maintained or strengthened, as required. Immunity of UK wild birds to H5 HPAI may be low at present. We strongly recommend that all poultry keepers (including backyard keepers) review their biosecurity measures and business continuity plans, as the risk has now increased. Keepers should familiarise

1Trade Control and Expert System 3 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Animal & Plant Health Agency Advice Services Team - International Disease Monitoring themselves with government guidance on good biosecurity and how to report suspicion of disease appropriately.

The OIE/FAO International Reference Laboratory/UK national laboratory at Weybridge has the necessary ongoing diagnostic capability for these strains of virus, whether low or high pathogenicity AI, and continually monitors changes in the virus. We will continue to report on any updates to the situation in Europe and, in particular, any changes in disease distribution or wild bird movements which may increase the risk to the UK.

Further information is available here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/avian-influenza-bird-flu including updated biosecurity advice for poultry keepers for England; https://gov.wales/avian-influenza for Wales and; http://gov.scot/avianinfluenza for Scotland.

We ask that the public use the Defra helpline (Tel: 03459 33 55 77) to report findings of dead wild birds. In particular, any wild ducks, wild geese, swans, gulls or birds of prey and where more than five birds of any other species are found dead in the same location.

Authors

Dr Lauren Perrin

Charlotte Coxon

Anthony Pacey

Prof Ian Brown

Alastair George

1Trade Control and Expert System 4 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Animal & Plant Health Agency Advice Services Team - International Disease Monitoring

References All outbreaks and cases were taken from the Animal Disease Notification System (ADNS).

Details of outbreaks were also taken from OIE. OIE (2020) https://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Diseaseinformation/WI

Offlu (2020) http://www.offlu.net/fileadmin/home/en/news/pdf/HPAI_Rep._of_Kazakhstan.pdf

ECDC (2020) https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/avian-influenza-eu-alert-new-outbreaks

FLI (2020) https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00033235/Radar_Bul letin_Deutschland-September_2020_oeffentlich.pdf

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