10/26/2018 DemDaily: House Races and Ratings: Democrats

DemDaily: House Races and Ratings: Democrats October 24, 2018

Dear Kimberly,

Now less than two weeks out from the midterms, expectation of a blue wave are undiminished, but at least ten Democratic seats are still in play.

The latest Rasmussen Report, out today, shows that 47% of likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate, compared to 44% who would opt for the Republican. 3% preferred some other candidate, and 6% were undecided.

The October 14‐18th poll portrays the narrowest point spread yet in a generic Congressional Ballot, compared to RealClearPolitics average of ten major polls conducted between October 1‐17, showing Dems with a 7.7% lead.

The Numbers * Democrats hold 193 seats to Republicans 236, with six vacancies in the US House. * Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the US House in 2018. * Democrats have 21 open seats, Republicans have 38 open seats. * DemList counts 68 Republican Congressional seats that are considered truly vulnerable, from Lean Republican (22) and Toss Up (29) to Lean Democrat (13), and Likely Democrat (4).

DemList counts ten vulnerable Democratic Congressional seats. Click on the state to link to the candidate's site and support!

REPUBLICANS' TOP DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT TARGETS Key: Likely Republican (2) Democratic Toss Up (1), Lean Democrat (3), Likely Democrat (4) *=Incumbent

State/Rating District *Incumbent and 2018 Democratic 2018 Republican Clinton (D) Trump (R) Candidate Candidate 2016 2016 Arizona 02 *Tom O'Halleran Wendy Rogers Trump +1.1 Florida 07 *Stephanie Murphy Mike Miller Clinton +7.3 Minnesota 01 (Open/*Tim Walz, running for Jim Hagedorn Trump +14.9 Governor) Dan Feehan Minnesota 07 *Collin Peterson Dave Hughes Trump +30.8

Minnesota 08 (Open/*Rick Nolan, ran for Lt. Pete Stauber Trump +15.6 Governor, defeated in primary) Joe Radinovich New 01 (Open/*Carol Shea‐Porter, retiring) Eddie Edwards Trump +2.2 Hampshire Chris Pappas 03 (Open/*, running for Danny Tarkanian US Senate) Trump +1 Nevada 04 (Open/*, retiring) Clinton +4.9 Pennsylvania 08 *Matt Cartwright (previously in old John Chrin Trump +9.6 17th CD) Pennsylvania 14 (Open/*Conor Lamb, running in Guy Reschenthaler Trump +29 new 17th CD) Bibiana Boerio Note: Chart reflects the new Pennsylvania Congressional Districts (per SCOTUS February ruling) and *incumbent who previously represented the majority of that geographic area.

Related DemList: House Races and Ratings: Republicans 10/23/18

DemList will keep you informed!

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Kimberly Scott Publisher DemList is a daily political column dedicated to informing and connecting you to the issues, politics and the players. Forward and follow on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn

Sources: Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics

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