TO: Campaign Team FROM: Jim McLaughlin & Rob Schmidt RE: FL CD 27 Survey Results – General Election Voters Date: September 18, 2018

Our recent general election survey shows Maria Elvira Salazar leading Donna Shalala in the race for Congress by nine-points. Salazar’s lead is due to the fact that she is better liked than Shalala, who is polarized and divided, having just as many voters favorable to her as unfavorable. Below are the key findings from our poll:

 In a head-to-head matchup, Maria Elvira Salazar leads Donna Shalala, 51% to 42%, with 7% undecided.

Ballot Test (Candidates Rotated) % Maria Elvira Salazar 51% Donna Shalala 42% Undecided 7%

 Salazar has a greater than three to one net positive image rating, 45% Favorable to 14% Unfavorable. On the other hand, Shalala has a net neutral image rating, 31% Favorable to 30% Unfavorable. Shalala’s negatives are twice those of Salazar’s, yet her favorables are 14-points lower. Salazar’s personal popularity is her biggest asset and this is a very troubling sign for Shalala.

Salazar Image % Shalala Image % Favorable 45% Favorable 31% Unfavorable 14% Unfavorable 30% No Opinion 18% No Opinion 13% Never Heard Of 24% Never Heard Of 25% NET (FAV.-UNFAV.) +31 NET (FAV.-UNFAV). +1

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BOTTOM LINE:

Contrary to the narrative set by national Democrats, this district remains competitive and winnable for Republicans. While won here by 20-points, voters have proven to split their ticket for Senator Rubio and Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who outperformed the presidential race by 30-points in 2016. It is clear that Republicans have the opportunity to hold this seat because Maria Elvira Salazar is the nominee. Not only does Salazar have near uniform support among Republicans, she has crossover appeal with swing voters, NPAs and Non-Cuban Hispanics who tend to be more Democrat behaviorally. Considering Salazar’s popularity and awareness, there is a high likelihood that most other Republicans would not perform nearly as well as she does. Even so, there are a number of factors that will keep this race very close until Election Day. In addition to the political environment, past vote performance and demographics, the undecideds are leaning left of center. While Salazar is ahead, she must not take anything for granted and will need significant resources to continuing running a very strong campaign.

Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey of 400 likely November 2018 general election voters in Congressional District 27 from September 10th to 13th, 2018. All interviews were administered via telephone by professional bilingual interviewers, allowing respondents the choice of language in which they would prefer to conduct the survey (62% in English/38% in Spanish). Respondents were contacted by both landline phone and cell phone. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by precinct, race/ethnicity, age, gender and party to correlate with current voter registration statistics and actual voter turnout from previous statewide even-year general elections. This poll of 400 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and refusals. ###

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