©Tom Perry/CARE

SEPTEMBER 2015 El Niño Monitoring CARE PNG Overview of El Nino in Papua (PNG) El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world, depending strongly on location and season. The strongest effects on lowering precipitation are in South- East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean, especially in the dry season (August-November) where severe droughts can prevail (OCHA, 2015).

The last devastating El Niño experienced in PNG was in 1997 and 1998. At the time it was found that virtually everyone in rural PNG was affected to some extent with an estimate 40% seriously affected. Analysis from a survey in November-December 1997 found 260,000 people in a critical, life threatening situation and an additional 1.9 million consuming limited food. Water scarcity was also a problem with 5,000 people in a critical, life threatening situation with extremely limited water supplies and 363,000 people with minimal amounts of poor quality water available. This was caused by a severe reduction in crop yields due to below average rainfall with up to 80% in many areas.

The 2015 El Nino is projected to be worse, or of a similar scale to that of 1997-98. As a result of the these projections, CARE began monitoring the potential impacts of El Nino in its areas of operation in Eastern Highlands Province, Morobe, Chimbu and the Autonomous Region of Bougainville in July 2015, tracking indicators such as rainfall, river levels, food crop yields, social indicators and market trends in discussions and cooperation with government and other key stakeholders.

PNG has been experiencing erratic weather patterns since May 2015, including hail and frost in some regions, with the being particularly hard hit. Much of the rest of the country has been experiencing a significant reduction in rainfall and unusually hot weather, with the highlands particularly affected. In August 2015, the PNG National Weather Office reported that El Nino had peaked earlier than predicted and that this reduced rainfall could be expected to continue until at least February or March 2016

CARE PNG El Niño monitoring of drought indicators Since May 2015, CARE PNG has been monitoring the potential drought impacts of El Niño in its areas of operations in the Highlands as part of its preparedness planning to respond to a possible severe El Niño event. This was based on previous preparedness work undertaken in July 2014 for a potential El Niño event that did not eventuate.

CARE has been monitoring a series of indicators rainfall, water (river levels in rural areas, town water supplies in urban areas), food crops yields (taro, cassava, banana, kaukau), health incidences (diarrhoeal diseases, typhoid), social indicators (increase in theft), electricity (power outages in urban areas), food prices and market trends. This information has been collated on an ongoing basis through discussions with Local Level Government contacts in areas of observation, field team visit debriefs and discussions with provincial government stakeholders.

Changes in monitored areas since August In order to better understand the needs and capabilities of affected communities, CARE International in PNG undertook a series of assessments in three drought-affected provinces from September 21 to October 2. In parallel to the needs assessments, CARE did a rapid gender analysis on the differing impact of the drought on women, men, girls and boys. The assessments were undertaken in close coordination with National and Provincial government authorities and the Disaster Management team in Obura Wonenara (Eastern Highlands Province), Menyamya (Morobe) and Gumine districts (Chimbu) in communities not yet covered by National Disaster Centre-led assessment teams. These documents are available separately.

CARE has also provided WASH kits to approximately 1200 households in 8 localities (beneficiary numbers provided above). The kits consisted of: one jerrycan, 8-12 bars of soap (depending on region and access to markets) and 3 packets of water purification tablets. This distribution was accompanied by a training session on how to use the water purification tablets, as well as key hygiene and drought-resilience/agricutural messages.

In September, across monitored sites in Eastern Highlands, Morobe and Chimbu provinces, many places fell under category 3 with food supplies reported to last for less than a month. Midway through October, all sites will have risen to category 4 with major food and water crises set to be experienced. Information collated to the end of September as part of CARE’s El Niño monitoring is summarised below:

2 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring - September 2015 Town, Eastern Highlands Province Rainfall: • Some light rains and five days of very heavy rains fell towards the end of September. Vegetation especially grass, looking greener but food crops not doing as well. The first rains evaporated very quickly from the ground as the soil was very dry and grass only responded to the last 3 days of heavy rain. Rains have stopped since the 1st of October and not looking very likely to return. Soil: • Soils are very hard and dry with many cracks in the ground.

Food (Market Food • Food prices at the markets have gone up while quality has decreased. Prices and Rice Sales): • Rice is selling very fast with large retail stores re-stocking shelves twice every week. This is due to the increased rural customer base. • CARE PNG staff are reporting an increase in the number of relatives coming into town placing a huge burden on financial resources to provide food for more people. • CARE PNG staff are also reporting doubling their remittance/food support to relatives in the village

Water: • Creeks and streams in villages close to Goroka town have dried up. • Those living in settlements have to walk further to fill water containers • Residents who depend on rain water were able to refill their water tanks with the recent rains.

Health: • There was a marked increase in diarrhea and dysentery among • Typhoid although endemic also increased sharply

Education: • Many schools were only open for half a day due to water shortage issues.

3 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring - September 2015 Kamano LLG, Kainantu District, Eastern Highlands Province Overall Assessment: • In September, many places fell under category 3 with food supplies reported to last for last than a month. By the end of October, some of this area will have risen to category 4 with major food and water crises set to be experienced. Rainfall: • Some light rains fell towards the end of September.

Soil: • Soils are very hard and dry with many cracks in the ground. Food: • Crop yields have drastically reduced in both size and quantity with some crops simply not producing any food • Insect infestation of root crops is widespread • Many people relying on famine foods Water: • There was a marked increase in diarrhea and dysentery among • Typhoid although endemic also increased sharply

Health: • There was a marked increase in diarrhea and dysentery among children • Increase in respiratory illnesses, including pneumonia Education: • Many schools were only open for half a day due to water shortage issues.

4 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring - September 2015 Obura- Wonenara District, Eastern Highlands Province Menyamya District, , Chimbu Province Overall Assessment: • In September, many places fell under category 3 with food supplies reported to last for last than a month. Midway through October, all sites will have risen to category 4 with major food and water crises set to be experienced. Rainfall: • Some light rains fell in September but not enough to indicate the start of the wet season. Rainwater that fell very quickly evaporated from the ground as the soil was very dry. Soil: • Soils are very hard and dry with many cracks in the ground. Depth of cracks measuring more than 60cm in some instances. Food: • From assessment interviews as well as physical observation, all gardens planted on hillsides have dried up. • Crop yields have drastically reduced in both size and quantity with some crops simply not producing any food. • Crops that produce below the ground are experiencing damage from pests and heat. • Store food prices have increased making it difficult for the majority of villages to buy food for consumption. • There is increased theft of cultivated food as well as from forests (People crossing over traditional land boundaries to find bush and famine food) • People crossing over traditional land boundaries to find bush and famine food • In Gumine people are now depending primarily on bush and famine food and men are travelling to Jiwaka and Mt Hagen to buy sweet potato and take back to Gumine to sell. One sweet potato heap of 4 selling for K10. • Families are rationing their food and eating less. Adults are going hungry so that their children can eat reasonable amount of food. • Pregnant and lactating women are not getting any more food than other adults in the household. Even in their situation, they are also sacrificing and eating less than the adult men. • Households with many livestock, esp pigs are selling them or slaughtering and selling meat cuts to raise cash for food. Others are simply killing the pigs to lessen the number of mouths they have to feed. Water: • All creeks and streams have dried up • Big rivers that were difficult to cross are now being crossed with water level at knee high • A considerable number of people using the big rivers which are nearby for bathing, doing laundry, and collecting cooking and drinking water because clean water sources are either completely dry or too far away • Clean drinking water is in very short supply. People doing 3 or more hours return trips to clean water sources to collect drinking and cooking water.

Health: • Increased incidence of diarrheal diseases in children • Waterborne diseases, especially typhoid on the increase • Dehydration and heat exhaustion high among children and the elderly Education: • Some fully schools closed; others open for half a day only; while some primary schools are only teaching grade 8 classes in preparation for examinations in November.

5 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring - September 2015 Overall assessment The situation appears to be deteriorating in areas covered by CARE PNG’s August drought monitoring. The long dry spell has led to low crop yields. As the majority of people in PNG grow their own food (some 85%), the low yields from the gardens are resulting in increased food insecurity. The majority reported having less than 1-2 months food stocks left, while some households had already run out of food. As the current El Nino conditions are expected to continue until 2016, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate even further over the coming months. Since crop yields are so low, there are no food surpluses to sell. As a result, households cannot resort to purchasing food or other essentials, having no income from gardens as a result of the drought. Households are already using a variety of coping mechanisms as a result of the food shortages, such as limiting the number of meals per day and eating “famine” or “bush” food. Water levels are extremely low and people are spending an increasing amount of time searching for and collecting water, placing additional burdens on households, particularly on women and children. The reduced quantity and in some cases, quality (as more people are using water from a reduced number of sources) is impacting hygiene and increasing the risk of propagation of water-borne diseases. The soil is extremely hard and dry, and not conducive to planting at this time. With the effects of El Nino expected to continue into 2016, it now seems likely that the food security situation, already difficult, will continue to deteriorate in the months to come.

CARE PNG CARE has been working in for 26 years (1989-2015) helping remote communities in Emergency Response, WASH, Governance, Sexual, Reproductive and Maternal Health and Women’s Economic Empowerment. Women’s empowerment and gender equality are at the centre of the organisation’s programming and operations. CARE has over 110 international and national staff with management and technical expertise working primarily in four provinces (Eastern Highlands Province, Autonomous Region of Bougainville, Chimbu and Morobe) across the country. CARE PNG’s headquarters is in Goroka, EHP, where approximately 75 staff are based, and CARE also has an office in Buka, ARB with approximately 35 attached staff. There are two project offices, one in Arawa, ARB and one in Menyamya District, Morobe Province.

6 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring - September 2015 CARE AUSTRALIA ABOUT CARE 1800 020 046 CARE works with poor communities in developing countries [email protected] to end extreme poverty and injustice. care.org.au ABN: 46 003 380 890 Our long-term aid programs provide food, clean water, basic healthcare and education and create opportunities for people to build a better future for themselves. PNG OFFICE We also deliver emergency aid to survivors of natural PO Box 1157 disasters and conflict, and help people rebuild their lives. Goroka We have 70 years’ experience in successfully fighting East Highland Province poverty, and last year we helped change the lives of +675 532 2766 72 million people around the world. 000052

care.org.au