A fully owned subsidiary of
Petroleum sector is considered the most sensitive sector of economy. Macro- economic indicators are highly sensitive to the price of petroleum products. The three oil distribution companies namely Padma Oil Company Limited, Jamuna Oil Company Limited, and Meghna Petroleum Limited procure, store, and market A Comparative Analysis on petroleum products all over the country Fuel-Oil Distribution from their main installations. The price and margin of the petroleum products is fixed by the Government on the basis of Companies of Bangladesh quantity sold. According to BPC, the demand of petroleum products in our country stood at 5.26 million MT in year 2015-16.
EBL Securities Ltd. (EBLSL) is one of the fastest growing full service brokerage companies in Bangladesh and a fully owned subsidiary of Eastern Bank Limited. EBLSL is also one of the top ten leading stock brokerage houses of the country. EBL Securities Limited is the TREC holder of both exchanges of the country; DSE (TREC#026) and CSE (TREC#021)
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Oil & Petroleum Industry Dynamics
The oil and petroleum industry of Bangladesh is mostly under the control of Government. With a view to providing petroleum products to all consumers at equal price irrespective of transportation cost, the government established Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) by a presidential Ordinance in 1976. Presently BPC is composed of three oil marketing companies, two blending plants, one LPG bottling company and a refinery as its subsidiaries.
The production, processing, refining and marketing of petroleum Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) products in the country is vested exclusively with the Government of Bangladesh as per the Bangladesh Petroleum Act, 1974. The Petroleum Act also specifies the authorities, Marketing Petroleum Lubricant LP Gas functions and responsibilities of BPC including establishment of Companies Refinary Blending Bottling plants & infrastructure, building necessary facilities and their extensions for marketing of petroleum products; monitoring POCL Eastern Eastern LP Gas Ltd. coordination of the subsidiary companies of BPC and any other Refinery Ltd Lubricants JOCL Blending Ltd functions and responsibilities as directed by the government. Intense competition has been prevailing in the lubricant market MPL Standard due to the presence of more than 50 market players along with Asiatic Oil Co. the brands marketed by three state owned oil marketing Ltd companies. Marketing of petroleum products is responsibility of three oil marketing companies namely Padma Oil Company Limited (POCL), Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JOCL), and Meghna Source: Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) Petroleum Limited (MPL).
At present only about 30% of the market demand of the lubricant products are served by the three oil marketing companies. It is notable here that BPC has no price control on the lubricants products. The pricing structure is settled by the Government at ex-refinery level, depots level, and also at consumer level in different distances. The commission at each level of suppliers namely oil marketing companies, agents, dealers are also fixed by the Government. As per the requirement of the state, the Government of Bangladesh imports crude oil and refined oil, then the crude oil is refined through Eastern Refinery Ltd. (ERL), another subsidiary of BPC and distributed through its oil marketing companies. There exists some special arrangement among the three oil marketing companies with a few direct customers. Among the direct customer groups, there are some Government organizations (PDB, Bangladesh Railway, and Defense Service), autonomous body (Chittagong Port Authority, BIWTA, Bangladesh Ordnance Factory) and nationalized industries etc. The oil marketing companies are engaged in marketing of oil products and the income it earns is termed as ‘Margin’ that is fixed by and determined by the Government. Sales net of cost of goods sold (net earnings from petroleum products) is recorded in the financial statements as a form of net revenue rather than gross revenue.
Price fall in world market decreased the oil price in Bangladesh
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, has been in its deepest downturn in year 2015. Many Crude Oil Price in USD Per Barrel of the companies have gone through bankruptcy as 130.0 106.5 107.3 106.0 98.3 97.7 price of the oil came down more than 52.5% of 2013- 110.0 79.5 90.0 71.8 14’s price within a short period of time. As 64.9 62.1 54.0 51.7 54.5 Bangladesh is a net oil import country, decrease in 70.0 50.4 50.0 oil price helped to control inflation and made a 30.0 positive impact on overall economy. The price of the 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 oil was USD 107.3 per barrel in 2012 which came Source: InvestmentMine down to USD 97.7 per barrel in 2014. In 2015 it sharply fell down to USD 51.7 per barrel because of Percentage of Sector-wise Fuel Consumption over supply (one of the reasons) in world market by 46.5% 25.7% 17.5% most of the oil producing countries. Bangladesh has 4.3% 6.1% taken this low price benefit and prices of diesel and kerosene have been brought down by BDT 3.0 a liter, Industry Domestic & Others Agriculture Power Transport octane and petrol by BDT 10.0 and furnace oil by BDT Source: Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) based on 2015-16 data 18.0.
1 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Transportation, power and agriculture sectors drive the fuel demand in Bangladesh Petroleum is considered as the energy driver of an economy. It has great influence directly or indirectly in all economic sectors. It is the fundamental input of production and constitutes a significant portion of production cost in every sector of the economy. Fuel is used intensively in every sector including irrigation of agriculture sector, transportation sector and power production. The use of petroleum products in the country is varied. Petrol and diesel are the major fuels for transportation. Diesel is also widely used by farmers for irrigation, while kerosene is mostly used for lighting, especially by rural households without electricity. As a result an increase in petroleum price directly influence the inflation and GDP of the economy. Transportation, power and agriculture sectors are the main fuel-demand driver of Bangladesh. According to BPC, the demand of petroleum products in our country stood at 5.26 million MT in year 2015-16. The consumption of petroleum products in Bangladesh decreased by 1.23% in 2015-16 compared to the previous year. High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Furnace Oil (FOSH) drive 82.2% of total petroleum demand. A whole import dependency of fuel requires huge foreign exchanges that have a major impact on country’s macro economy.
SALE OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DURING LAST FIVE YEARS (Quantity in million MT) % of July’16 – % of PRODUCT 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Total Dec’16 Total JET A-1 (Jet Fuel) 318,423 323,327 338,829 347,323 6.6% 190,065 6.8% HOBC (High Octane Blending Component) 110,850 117,452 126,114 147,557 2.8% 86,381 3.1% MS (Motor Spirit) 169,710 178,674 166,823 137,360 2.6% 95,673 3.4% SKO (Superior Kerosene Oil) 314,876 289,871 263,029 213,685 4.1% 87,472 3.1% HSD (High Speed Diesel) 2,964,604 3,242,554 3,396,061 3,606,404 68.6% 1,842,824 66.0% LDO (Light Diesel Oil) 1,092 1,064 2,666 2,758 0.1% 538 0.0% JBO (Jute Batching Oil) 25,841 23,538 18,729 16,859 0.3% 7,904 0.3% FOHS (Furnace Oil) 1,076,423 1,202,505 906,771 711,889 13.5% 443,118 15.9% LUBE (Lube Oil) 15,908 17,823 17,869 17,445 0.3% 9,396 0.3% SBP (Special Boiling Point) 800 368 234 207 0.0% 89 0.0% MTT (Mineral Turpentine) 9,875 7,821 7,038 2,037 0.0% 2,147 0.1% LPG (Liquid Petroleum Gas) 19,671 17,529 17,424 16,050 0.3% 8,027 0.3% BITUMEN 58,396 62,440 59,836 36,446 0.7% 18,056 0.6% TOTAL 5,086,469 5,484,966 5,321,423 5,256,020 100.0% 2,791,690 100.0% INC / (DEC) -127,177 398,497 -163,543 -65,403 - - - % of INC/DEC from Previous Year -2.44 7.83 -2.98 -1.23 - - - Source: Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC)
Government supplies almost all of the petroleum demand through import from various countries to support the energy need in transportation, power generation, agricultural activities and others. Import of petroleum has been increased in year 2016. Improvement in generation has a big impact on diesel consumption by the irrigation pump. Now a huge number of pumps operate with electricity which earlier used to consume diesel. In upcoming year we can expect increase in petroleum import as government has issued permission for setting up power plants where most of them will be furnace oil based.
IMPORTED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (Quantity in MT) YEAR/PRODUCT GAS OIL JET A-1 MOGAS SKO HSFO LUBE ALC MURBAN Total 2009 2,243,758 256,576 98,064 141,103 - 7,248 612,913 425,614 3,785,276 2010 2,186,597 339,998 90,197 107,758 - 4,745 620,238 654,832 4,004,365 2011 2,955,798 318,202 95,824 153,598 665,260 4,980 627,535 583,960 5,405,157 2012 2,618,685 339,699 95,824 20,380 670,899 4,852 682,039 583,494 5,015,872 2013 2,608,746 310,884 97,641 28,376 1,005,104 - 592,054 591,091 5,233,896 2014 2,903,928 334,079 35,596 - 869,124 - 592,865 714,746 5,450,338 2015 2,974,749 338,315 33,842 - 414,451 - 697,667 395,006 4,854,030 2016 3,130,052 354,430 150,601 - 481,673 - 728,307 579,848 5,424,911 2017 (Up to June) 1,854,103 178,124 16,463 - 176,802 - 289,736 380,839 670,575 Source: Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC)
The major portion of imported petroleum is crude oil. Crude oil is refined through Eastern Refinery Ltd. (ERL), another subsidiary of BPC and distributed through its oil marketing companies namely Meghna Petroleum Ltd. (MPL), Padma Oil Company Ltd. (POCL) and Jamuna Oil Company Ltd. (JOCL). Right now total industry storage capacity is 1,189,172 MT. ERL has the highest storage capacity (42.5% of total) as crude oil is refined through it followed by three distribution companies POCL (20.6%), MPL (18.1%) and JOCL (15.5%).
2 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
PRODUCT-WISE STORAGE CAPACITY (Quantity in MT) Product/Location ERL POCL JOCL MPL LPGL SAOCL ELBL TOTAL CRUDE OIL 225,800 225,800 LPGL 1,200 540 1,740 NAPTHA 27,300 27,300 MS 4,500 6,865 8,077 7,510 26,952 HOBC 23,800 5,215 6,199 6,236 41,450 SKO 6,000 14,616 14,087 20,065 54,768 HSD 75,750 138,761 129,984 163,090 10,845 518,430 FOHS 63,900 19,934 23,009 16,957 9,260 133,060 JET A-1 1,500 56,785 56,251 SBP 191 191 MTT 1,831 1,831 LDO 110 110 JBO 1,600 2,729 3,001 1,855 9,185 LUBE OIL 8,990 9,464 18,454 BITUMEN 3,500 3,500 RCO (ABP+VB) 44,000 44,000 CONDENSET 19,000 19,000 OTHERS 7,150 7,150 Total 505,000 247,033 184,357 215,713 540 29,095 9,464 1,191,206 As % of BPC’s Total 42.4% 20.7% 15.5% 18.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.8% 100.0% Source:storage Banglad capacityesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC)
Capacity
In terms of Capacity, Padma Oil Company Limited holds the highest position with a total capacity of 247,033 MT whereas Meghna Petroleum Limited has a total capacity of 215,713 MT and Jamuna Oil Company Limited has the highest capacity of 184,357 MT. The three oil marketing companies have the highest capacity for High Speed Diesel since demand for High Speed Diesel is the highest among all the petroleum products.
JOCL: Sotrage Capacity - 184,357 MT POCL: Storage Capacity - 247,033 MT MPL: Storage Capacity - 215,713 MT 2.10% 3.4% 2.80% 1.6% 2.10% 2.9% 4.4% 6.00% 3.5% 10.1% 7.6% 8.10% 7.9% 13.0% 22.30% 56.60% 70.0% 75.6%
HSD Furnace Oil SKO Motor Spirit HOBC JBO HSD JET A-1 Furnace Oil SKO Motor Spirit HOBC Others HSD Furnace Oil Motor Spirit HOBC Others
3 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Company Overview
Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JAMUNAOIL) Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JOCL) is a petroleum Particular Facts & Figures marketing company which has been serving the nation for Current Price 205.1 last five decades. It was established in 1964 with the name Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 1,104.2 ‘Pakistan National Oil Limited’ and after independence the Total No. of Securities (mn) 110.4 company was renamed as Bangladesh National Oils Limited. Market Capitalization (BDT mn) 22,648.1 Jamuna Oil Company Ltd. was formed as a private limited 3 month Average Daily Turnover (BDT mn) 26.4 company on 12 March, 1975 under the Companies Act 52 Week Price Range (BDT) 178.90 – 227.00 1913 with the objective to take over all the properties, DSE Code JAMUNAOIL rights, interests and assets of Bangladesh National Oils Listing year 2007 Limited (ex-Pakistan National Oils Limited). The ownership Category A of the company was vested with Bangladesh Petroleum Source: DSE & EBLSL Research Corporation (BPC) through the agreement entered into between the company and BPC. JOCL also acquired all the properties, rights, interests and assets of Indo-Burmah Petroleum Company Limited. The company was converted into public limited company on 25 June 2007.
Due to decrease in sales of some of the petroleum products around the country, the company has posed negative growth in terms of profitability in the FY 2015-16. Furthermore, fall of margin earned because of direct product purchase by BPC from Government and private fractionation plants has caused its net earnings to fall.
Financial performance 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (9m,An) Financial Information (BDT mn): Net Earnings 1,404 1,471 1,733 872 1,160 EBITDA 1,166 1,174 1,240 419 430 Operating Profit 1,116 1,112 1,167 330 331 Other Income 1,798 2,121 1,990 2,408 2,891 Profit After Tax 1,990 2,317 2,253 1,959 2,301 Assets 20,724 31,359 41,452 53,855 65,683 Equity 6,575 11,898 15,100 15,839 17,546 Retained Earnings 1,200 1,254 2,503 1,858 2,480 Cash & Cash Eqiv. 3,809 10,205 15,227 23,643 26,025 Enterprise Value 13,297 11,147 6,482 -3,568 -3,156 Dividend (C/B)% 90/10 90/10 100/0 100/0 N/A Margin: EBITDA 83.10% 79.80% 71.60% 48.00% 37.10% Operating Profit 79.50% 75.60% 67.30% 37.90% 28.50% Pretax Profit 187.90% 208.80% 173.10% 298.30% 263.80% Net Profit 141.80% 157.50% 130.00% 224.70% 198.40% Growth (YoY): Net Earnings -32.40% 4.80% 17.80% -49.70% 33.00% Operating Profit -26.90% -0.40% 4.90% -71.70% 0.10% Pre Tax Profit -4.30% 16.50% -2.40% -13.30% 17.60% Net Profit -4.30% 16.40% -2.70% -13.10% 17.50% Profitability: ROA 9.73% 8.90% 6.19% 4.11% 3.85% ROE 34.70% 25.10% 16.70% 12.70% 13.80% Non-operating Income/PBT 68.20% 69.10% 66.40% 92.60% 94.50% Valuation: Price/Earnings 8.59 9.22 9.64 10.25 9.94 Price/BV 2.6 1.63 1.19 1.27 1.3 EPS (BDT) 21.81 23.08 20.4 17.74 20.84 DPS (BDT) 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 N/A NAV per share (BDT) 72.05 130.38 165.46 143.44 158.9 Z-Score 1.14 0.97 0.77 0.32 0.28 **Net earnings from petroleum products has been treated as revenue for oil marketing companies as per their accounting procedure Source: Website of Jamuna Oil Company Limited and EBLSL Research
4 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Padma Oil Company Limited (PADMAOIL) Padma Oil Company Limited (POCL) is the biggest and also Particular Facts & Figures the oldest petroleum marketing company among the Current Price 244.1 subsidiaries of BPC. Prior to the partition of the sub- Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 982.3 continent in 1947, mainly two oil marketing companies Total No. of Securities (mn) 98.2 namely Burmah Oil Company (BOC) and Burmah Shell Oil Market Capitalization (BDT mn) 23,978.6 Storage and Distribution Company (BSOC) were operating 3 month Average Daily Turnover (BDT mn) 13.0 Petroleum Business in the area what now comprise 52 Week Price Range (BDT) 175.70 – 269.00 DSE Code PADMAOIL Bangladesh. In the year 1985, BOC transferred its entire Listing year 1976 property in Bangladesh in favor of BPC, which is renamed as Category A ‘Padma Oil Company Limited’ in the year 1988. Source: DSE & EBLSL Research
The company has posted negative growth in terms of profitability in the FY 2015-16 due to fall in non-operating income which has been caused by gradual reduction of bank interest rate. The total sales of petroleum has also experienced a nosedive. Private power plants have received license to import furnace oil which has caused threat for local oil marketing companies as reflected in the financial performance during FY 2015-16. Furthermore, due to marketing of gas field products through BPC from January 2015, a significant profit on the gas field products has been decreased.
Financial performance 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (9m,An) Financial Information (BDT mn): Gross Profit 1,503 1,838 1,810 1,869 1,956 EBITDA 780 804 1,256 1,284 1,138 Operating Profit 714 706 1,130 1,137 987 Non-Operating Income 2,400 2,286 1,587 1,498 1,669 Profit After Tax 2,067 2,127 1,928 1,874 1,872 Assets 79,185 90,223 96,215 113,639 132,043 Equity 5,967 7,291 8,237 9,128 9,549 Retained Earnings 5,074 6,309 7,254 8,146 8,567 Cash & Cash Eqiv. 20,641 25,602 16,732 18,313 20,682 Enterprise Value -3,022 3,117 7,266 122 4,456 Dividend (C/B)% 90/10 100/0 100/0 100/0 N/A Margin: EBITDA 51.90% 43.80% 69.40% 68.70% 58.20% Operating Profit 47.50% 38.40% 62.40% 60.80% 50.50% Pretax Profit 196.70% 154.60% 142.60% 133.90% 129.00% Net Profit 137.50% 115.70% 106.50% 100.20% 95.70% Growth (YoY): Net Earnings -1.50% 22.30% -1.60% 3.30% 4.60% Operating Profit -3.20% -1.10% 60.10% 0.60% -13.20% Pre Tax Profit 36.20% -3.90% -9.20% -3.00% 0.80% Net Profit 41.30% 2.90% -9.40% -2.80% -0.10% Profitability: ROA 2.71% 2.51% 2.07% 1.79% 1.52% ROE 40.10% 32.10% 24.80% 21.60% 20.00% Non-Operating Income/PBT 81.10% 80.40% 61.50% 59.80% 66.10% Valuation: Price/Earnings 11.51 14.85 12.45 9.74 13.43 Price/BV 3.99 4.33 2.91 2 2.63 EPS (BDT) 23.15 21.66 19.63 19.07 19.05 DPS (BDT) 9.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 N/A NAV per share (BDT) 66.82 74.22 83.85 92.92 97.21 Z-Score 0.36 0.43 0.41 0.33 0.33 **Net earnings from petroleum products has been treated as revenue for oil marketing companies as per their accounting procedure Source: Website of Jamuna Oil Company Limited and EBLSL Research
5 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Meghna Petroleum Limited (MPETROLEUM) Meghna Petroleum Limited (MPL) is one of the largest Particular Facts & Figures companies operating its oil business in Bangladesh. It’s Current Price 199.0 working alone with other seven operating companies under Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 1,082.2 Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to mitigate huge gap Total No. of Securities (mn) 108.2 Market Capitalization (BDT mn) 21,535.0 between demand and supply. It was setup on 27 December, 3 month Average Daily Turnover (BDT mn) 13.9 1977 as a private limited company with the objective of 52 Week Price Range (BDT) 167.4 – 211.2 taking over the physical possession of all the fixed assets of DSE Code MPETROLEUM the erstwhile Meghna Petroleum Marketing Company Listing year 2007 Limited (MPMCL) and Padma Petroleum Limited (PPL) as on Category A March 31, 1978. Source: Source: DSE & EBLSL Research Meghna Petroleum Marketing Company Limited was created after acquiring the operation of the then ESSO Eastern Inc. (1962) of America in 1975 and Padma Petroleum Limited was created in 1972 after acquiring the operation of the then Dawood Petroleum Limited (1968). In the year 1976 the assets and liability of the company were transferred and handed over to BPC. Since then Meghna Petroleum Limited has been functioning as a subsidiary of BPC and serving as one of the petroleum distribution company of BPC.
Meghna Petroleum Limited has also faced a critical year during FY 2015-16 as the business has incurred increasing operating expense due to Modified New Pay Scale 2015 and increasing gratuity provision. The company has also faced challenges similar to other oil marketing companies which have caused their profit to decline.
Financial Performance 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (9m,An) Financial Information (BDT mn): Net Earnings 1,320 1,488 1,635 1,396 1,840 EBITDA 762 702 901 548 677 Operating Profit 693 625 821 438 576 Non-Operating Income 1,938 2,628 2,007 2,204 2,346 Profit After Tax 1,864 2,360 2,035 1,850 2,064 Assets 43,885 47,918 58,883 70,433 79,027 Equity 5,177 6,963 8,063 8,777 9,189 Retained Earnings 1,902 2,374 2,076 1,890 1,602 Enterprise Value 853 8,107 3,902 -5,684 -4,386 Cash & Cash Eqiv. 13,769 16,118 17,200 24,330 24,027 Dividend (C/B)% 70/20 95/10 105/0 105/0 N/A Margin: EBITDA 57.70% 47.20% 55.10% 39.20% 36.80% Operating Profit 52.50% 42.00% 50.20% 31.30% 31.30% Pretax Profit 189.30% 207.60% 164.30% 179.70% 150.80% Net Profit 141.20% 158.60% 124.40% 132.50% 112.20% Growth (YoY): Net Earnings 10.50% 12.70% 9.90% -14.60% 31.80% Operating Profit 6.06% -9.82% 31.51% -46.73% 31.59% Pre Tax Profit 35.70% 23.62% -13.03% -6.59% 10.60% Net Profit 33.93% 26.57% -13.77% -9.07% 11.56% Profitability: ROA 4.60% 5.10% 3.80% 2.90% 2.80% ROE 42.50% 38.90% 27.10% 22.00% 23.00% Non-operating Income /PBT 77.60% 85.00% 74.70% 87.80% 84.50% Valuation: Price/Earnings 7.84 10.26 10.37 10.08 9.51 Price/BV 2.82 3.48 2.62 2.12 2.14 EPS (BDT) 22.74 23.99 18.8 17.1 19.08 DPS (BDT) 7 9.5 10.5 10.5 N/A NAV per share (BDT) 63.15 70.78 74.51 81.11 84.91 Z-Score 0.5 0.65 0.52 0.39 0.37 **Net earnings from petroleum products has been treated as revenue for oil marketing companies as per their accounting procedure Source: Website of Jamuna Oil Company Limited and EBLSL Research
6 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Eastern Lubricants Blenders Limited (EASTRNLUB) The company is engaged in blending lubricant oils and Particular Facts & Figures greases on behalf of three oil marketing companies- Jamuna Current Price 881.7 Oil Company Limited, Meghna Petroleum Limited and Paid-up Capital (BDT mn) 9.94 Padma Oil Company Limited. The company is registered as a Total No. of Securities (mn) 1.0 public limited company under company act of 1913. It was Market Capitalization (BDT mn) 876.4 incorporated on 22 October 1963. It has plant in Chittagong. 3 month Average Daily Turnover (mn) 0.7 It works as a subsidiary of Bangladesh Petroleum 52 Week Price Range (BDT) 870.0 – 1,479.0 Corporation (BPC). The company blend lubricant only on the DSE Code EASTRNLUB Listing year 1976 basis of requisition received from the POCL, JOCL and MPL. Category A It has been trying to diversify its business. It has started importing Lube base oil for marketing and marketing “YUASA BRAND” batteries. It has 9,464 MT Lube Oil storage capacity and 24,000 MT Lube Oil blending capacity. Its capacity utilization depends on the requisition received from the POCL, JOCL and MPL.
The company’s huge growth in FY 2015-16 has been attributed to its base oil business which started running in the FY 2015- 16. Although the company incurred operating loss in lubricants blending business, the company earned an operating profit of BDT 62.5 million in base oil business in the FY 2015-16. The business of base oil has played a significant role in achieving healthy growth in terms of profitability in the FY 2015-16.
Financial Performance 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (9m,An) Financial Information (BDT mn): Revenue 9 9 6 215 193 Gross Profit -4 -4 -5 54 22 EBITDA -5 -5 -6 53 20 Operating Profit -5 -5 -6 53 20 Non-Operating Income 13 13 11 5 3 Profit After Tax 5 5 4 41 16 Assets 155 148 315 190 296 Equity 71 73 73 111 114 Retained Earnings - 62 63 101 104 Cash & Cash Eqiv. 72- 69 128 41 166 Enterprise Value 331 334 275 323 993 Dividend (C/B)% 30/0 30/0 30/0 100/0 N/A Margin: EBITDA -55.70% -50.50% -94.90% 24.70% 10.60% Operating Profit -61.40% -55.40% -101.90% 24.50% 10.40% Pretax Profit 79.30% 63.90% 80.20% 25.70% 11.30% Net Profit 60.60% 48.90% 61.20% 19.30% 8.50% Growth (YoY): Revenue -22.90% 6.90% -34.40% 3407.00% -10.20% Gross Profit 292.90% -15.60% 31.20% 1219.20% -59.90% Operating Profit 160.90% -3.50% 20.60% 945.20% -62.10% Pre Tax Profit -15.80% -13.80% -17.60% 1022.10% -60.40% Net Profit -15.60% -13.70% -17.90% 1002.60% -60.20% Profitability: ROA 3.23% 3.02% 1.62% 16.44% 6.78% ROE 7.80% 6.40% 5.20% 45.00% 14.60% Non-Operating Income/PBT 182.80% 217.70% 232.20% 9.60% 13.70% Valuation: Price/Earnings 76.02 88.09 107.2 8.77 70.33 Price/BV 5.71 5.55 5.52 3.26 10.14 EPS (BDT) 5.33 4.60 3.78 41.70 16.57 DPS (BDT) 3.00 3.00 3.00 10.00 N/A NAV per share (BDT) 71.01 73.03 73.41 112.08 114.9 Z-Score 3.31 4.26 1.49 6.24 5.66 Source: Website of Padma Oil Company Ltd. and EBLSL Research
7 EBL Securities Limited Research
A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Comparative Analysis of Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh
Business Model and Products
The three oil distribution companies collect refined petroleum through pipe lines in in their main installations from Eastern Refinery Limited while some refined products are imported directly. Then these oil distribution companies disseminate petroleum products from their respective Main Installation (MI) facilities to all over the country through their distribution networks. The price of the products is fixed by the Government. The margin is also fixed by the Government on the basis of quantity sold.
Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JAMUNAOIL):
The prime activities of the company include the procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum products, non- petroleum products and lubricants products. The petroleum products include High Octane Blending Component (HOBC), Motor Spirit (MS), Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO), High Speed Diesel (HSD), Light Diesel Oil (LDO), Furnace Oil (FO), and Jute Batching Oil (JBO). Non- petroleum products include Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Bitumen. JOCL is the distributor of lubricants of Mobil Jamuna Lubricants Limited. Lubricants products of JOCL include MOBIL DELVAC SPECIAL 20W50, MOBIL DELVAC 1340, MOBIL HD 40, MOBIL SUPER XHP 20W50 and MOBIL ATF 220. Aside from those JOCL also markets bitumen, LP gas, and lubricants and grease.
Padma Oil Company Limited (PADMAOIL):
The major activities of POCL are procurement, storage and marketing of Petroleum products, Lubricants and Greases, Bitumen, LPG. In addition, the company is engaged with production and marketing of Agro Chemicals Products. The petroleum products include Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Special Boiling Point Solvent (SBP), Naphtha, Motor Gasoline (regular & premium), Mineral Turpentine (MTT), Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO), Aviation Fuel (JET-A1), Low Sulphur High Sheep Diesel (LSHSD), High Speed Diesel (HSD), Jute batching Oil (JBO), Light Diesel Oil (LDO), High Sulphur Furnace Oil (HSFO) and Bitumen (Grade 10-100). The lubricant products include Monograde Diesel Engine Oil, High Performance Hydraulic Oil, Premium quality Industrial Gear Oil, Multigrade Gasoline Engine Oil, High performance engine Oil, High Performance Diesel Engine Oil, Monograde Gear Oil, Extreme Pressure Automotive Gear Oil, Extreme Pressure Automotive Gear Oil, Advance Hydraulic Transmission Fluid, Machinery Oil, Compressor Oil, Heat Treatment Oil, Metal Working Fluid, Brake and Clutch Fluid and Spindle Oil. Aside from those POCL also market chemical based insecticide products for agricultural use.
Meghna Petroleum Limited (MPETROLEUM):
The activities of the company comprise procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum oil and lubricant products, bitumen and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in Bangladesh. The petroleum products include High Octane Blending Component (HOBC), Motor Spirit (MS), Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO), High Speed Diesel (HSD), Light Diesel Oil (LDO), Furnace Oil (FO), and Jute Batching Oil (JBO). Non- petroleum products include Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Battery Water, Lubricant and Bitumen.
Mode of Transportation
After procuring petroleum products, the products are distributed to different destination all over the country. Petroleum products are distributed by three transportation modes. Due to higher capacity and cost effectiveness river is the first choice. All three companies transport around 90% products by river.
Particulars PADMAOIL MPETROLEUM JAMUNAOIL By River 90% 82% 88% By Railway 8% 6% 10% By Road 2% 12% 2%
Railway and road is used very little as their mode of transportation. Around 8% products are transported by railway whereas rest 2% is carried through road.
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A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Distribution Network
Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JAMUNAOIL): JOCL has huge infrastructure and facilities as required by a petroleum marketing company in order to ensure proper distribution of petroleum products throughout the country with uninterrupted supply. The company possesses a countrywide extensive network of 16 depots in addition to its main installation at Guptakhal in Chittagong, 560 Filling Stations, 20 Consumer Pump, 1067 Distributor Agent, 248 Packed Point Dealers and 767 LPG Dealers as on June, 2016.
Padma Oil Company Limited (PADMAOIL): POCL has huge infrastructure and facilities as required by a petroleum marketing company in order to ensure proper distribution of petroleum products throughout the country with uninterrupted supply. The company has countywide extensive network with 1436 Agents, 805 Filling Stations, 370 Packed Dealers, 892 LPG Dealers and 556 Chemical Distributors as on June, 2016.
Meghna Petroleum Limited (MPETROLEUM): In order to distribute petroleum throughout the country, MPL have 699 Nos. Filling Station, 156 Nos. Packed point Dealer, 1140 Nos. Agent and 1253 Nos. LPG Dealers as on June, 2016. Company has established business relationship with some direct customers, industries and power plants.
Business Expansion Plan
JAMUNA OIL COMPANY LIMITED PADMA OIL COMPANY LIMITED MEGHNA PETROLEUM LIMITED BPC is planning to install an Oil A 100,000 MT capacity expansion A Lube blending plant with a Installation at Mongla in project has been taken on 17 acre capacity of 15,000 MT at a cost collaboration with subsidiaries land of BPC where POCL will invest of BDT 200 million is going to set where JOCL has invested BDT for stake of 33.3%. The estimated up in Chittagong. 612.3 million for 33.3% stake. cost for the project is BDT 1,792.5 Company has taken step to The company is establishing million. It is estimated that the construct 100,000 capacity LPG storage tank with a capacity of project will be completed by 2018. bottling plant and bottle 5,000 MT at the main Construction of three fuel storage manufacturing plant in Khulna. establishment which will cost tank of 2,500 MT capacity each and The company has taken steps to BDT 66.0 million and will be one storage tank of 6,000 KL construct 40 storied building for completed by the end of 2018. capacity are going on. The work will multipurpose commercial use at To enhance the operational be completed by 2017. Motijheel in Dhaka. capability, the company will Extension of Hydrant Line at the establish RCC Jetty in place of Parking Bay of airport, Dhaka, is Pontoon Jetty in the main going on to meet the additional establishment. demand of refueling.
Revenue Breakdown
Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JAMUNAOIL): The net earnings of JOCL is mainly composed of major products such as refined petroleum products and minor products such as bitumen, lubricants and grease and LPG. During FY 2015-16, 80.2%, the bulk portion of the revenue, generated from net sales of petroleum products and 19.8% revenue came from net sales of minor products. Breakdown of Total Revenue Breakdown of Major Product Breakdown of Minor Product 1.2% -0.2% 3.2% 0.9% 19.8% 0.6% 5.3% 28.9%
80.2% 63.8% 95.9% Major Product Minor Product HOBC MS SKO HSD FO JBO Bitumen Lubricants & Grease LPG
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A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
During the period under review, it is found that major portion of total revenue came from High Speed Diesel by 51.4%, followed by Furnace Oil by 23.3%, Lubricants and Grease 18.9%, Kerosene 4.3% and rest from others.
Padma Oil Company Limited (PADMAOIL): The net earnings of POCL is mainly composed of major products such as refined petroleum products and minor products such as bitumen, lubricants and grease and LPG. During FY 2015-16, 93.0%, the bulk portion of the revenue, generated from net sales of petroleum products and 7.0% revenue came from net sales of minor products. Breakdown of Total Revenue Breakdown of Major Products Breakdown of Minor Products 0.0% 0.2% 1.6% 11.5% 7.0% 11.4% 4.6% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 37.5% 30.4%
83.0% 93.0% 1.8% 14.1% HOBC Jet A-1 MS SKO HSD Lubs & Greases LPG (Cylinders) Major Products Minor Products LDO FO MTT SBP JBO Bitumen Other Products
During the period under review, it is found that major portion of total revenue came from Jet A-1 by 34.9%, followed by High Speed Diesel by 28.3%, Motor Spirit by 13.1%, Furnace Oil by 10.6% and rest from others. The sale of Furnace Oil increased by 148.9% during 2015-16 compared to the previous year due to higher supply made to private power plants. On the other hand, installation of solar home system and electricity supply made to the remote and other areas for meeting the individual power demand caused a lower sale of karosene and use of CNG in transport sector is the reason for decreasing of Motor Sprit sale by 51.6%.
Meghna Petroleum Limited (MPETROLEUM): The net earnings of MPL is mainly composed of major products such as refined petroleum products and minor products such as bitumen, lubricants, Battery Water and LPG.
Breakdown of Total Revenue Breakdown of Major Products Breakdown of Minor Products 1.3% 4.3% 2.4% 0.0% 7.9% 1.0% 31.9% 21.8% 5.5%
68.1% 97.7% 58.1% Lubricants LPG Major Products Minor Products HOBC MS SKO HSD FO JBO Bitumen Battery Water
During FY 2015-16, the bulk portion of the revenue, generated from net sales of petroleum products (68.1%) and 31.9% revenue came from net sales of minor products. Major portion of total revenue came from High Speed Diesel by 39.6%, followed by Lubricants by 31.2%, Furnace Oil by 14.9%, Motor Spirit by 5.4%, Kerosene Oil by 3.7% and rest from others. The turnover decreased by 14.6% in year 2015-16 from 2014-15 due to lower demand of petroleum in the industry. The sale of Furnace Oil increased by 13.9% in year 2015-16 from year 2014-15 due to higher supply of Furnace Oil required for private power plants. MPL is serving 37.2% of total industry demands (according to the annual report 2014-15).
Eastern Lubricants Limited: From year 2015-16, company has been 2.6% 2.0% focused on selling of imported base oil. According to 2015-16 financial statements, bulk portion of revenue comes from sell of Blending Charges Imported Base Oil imported base oil (95.4%). Lubricant blending charges provides Battery Marketing 2.6% revenue and rest 2.0% comes from battery marketing.
95.4%
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A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Cost Structure
Jamuna Oil Company Limited (JAMUNAOIL): JOCL Cost Structure 42.4% 45.0% 35.4% 40.0% Total operating expenses covers 57.1% of total expenses of the 35.0% 30.0%
25.0% company. During FY 2015-16 total operating expenses increased 20.0% 9.9% 15.0% 7.5% 4.9% 10.0% by 6.0%.This increase in operating expenses mainly resulted 5.0% from the increase in depreciation expense by 19.6%. Major 0.0% A,S&D Tax FE Cont. to Dep. portion of cost goes to Administrative, Selling, and Distribution WPPF expense which is 42.4% of total cost.
Padma Oil Company Limited (PADMAOIL): 60.0% 52.2% POCL Cost Structure 50.0% Total operating expenses covers 66.2% of total expenses of the 40.0% 28.0% 30.0% company. As petroleum distribution is its major function, 20.0% 7.4% 6.5% 5.9%
10.0% administrative, selling and distribution costs bear the major 0.0% portion of total cost in year 2015-16. It has a large amount of A,S&D Tax FE Dep. Cont. to depreciation expense mainly for high fixed assets. Interest on WPPF WPPF & WF and bank charges contribute to the financial charges.
Meghna Petroleum Limited (MPETROLEUM): MPL Cost Structure 45.0% 38.3% 37.7% 40.0% 35.0% Total operating expenses cover 54.8% of total expenses of the 30.0% 25.0%
20.0% company. During FY 2015-16 total administrative, selling and 15.0% 10.2% 7.5% 6.3% 10.0% distribution cost increased by 23.8% as employee salaries, 5.0% which is 44.6% of total administrative cost, increased by 31.5%. 0.0% Other expenses are quite stable relative to previous year. A,S&D Tax FE Cont. to WPPF Dep.
Private Initiatives’ Access to Import Fuel Oil
In 2011, the Government opened import of fuel oil for electricity generation under the private initiative. Such decision and its implementation has curbed down the potential revenue earning avenue for BPC. There are currently 19 power plants who use furnace oil for electricity generation with a combined capacity of 2,792 MW. A total of 14 electricity producers arrange their own fuels taking advantage of nine percent service charges as well as tax waiver facilities on around 1.3 million tonnes of furnace oil. On August 7, 2017 the permission to import fuel oil without tax by 5 power plants was signed by the Power Division. Such decision will further adversely impact BPC since the demand for fuel oil will be met by import and BPC will miss out the opportunity of utilizing the existing demand. The importer will be able to procure fuel oil at BDT 22 per litre against the BPC’s price of BDT 42 per litre.
Investment Positives JAMUNA OIL COMPANY LIMITED PADMA OIL COMPANY LIMITED MEGHNA PETROLEUM LIMITED After completion of capacity, Many development projects Company is improving its core expansion projects such as Oil including expansion of depot, operating performance. As per Installation and Construction of construction and erection of 2016-17 quarter three (9 Months) Building will boost company’s storage tanks and physical disclosure, Net Operating Cash revenue and profitability. infrastructure expansion program Flow Per Share (NOCFPS) JAMUNAOIL is consistent in are going on. Completion of these increased to BDT 24.32 against paying dividend and constantly projects will enhance company’s BDT 16.39 in 2015-16 quarter paid 100% dividend (stock and capacity. three (9 Months). cash) in last four years. PADMAOIL is consistent in paying MPL has consistently announced dividend and constantly paid 105.0% cash dividend in recent 100% dividend (cash) in last three two years. years.
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Investment Negatives JAMUNA OIL COMPANY LIMITED PADMA OIL COMPANY LIMITED MEGHNA PETROLEUM LIMITED Sales volume of most of the Earnings from non-operating Almost 84.5% profit before tax products (except Octane and income added considerably to (PBT) comes from non-operating Diesel) are in decreasing trend the company’s profitability. In income like, interest on FDR, over the last years. Sales of Petrol 2015-16, non-operating Income profit on disposal of fixed assets, fell due to conversion of vehicle (interest come from SND & FDR) Interest on bank deposit, into CNG. If this trend continues, was BDT 1.5bn whereas Gross dividend income, interest on the profitability will be negatively Earnings on Petroleum Products house building loan etc. affected. was BDT 1.9 bn. Hence, Decreasing trend in interest rate Almost 94.5% profit before tax profitability of the company will will negatively affect the (PBT) comes from non-operating be hampered as interest rate is earnings. income like, interest on FDR, decreasing day by day. On year 2015-16, companies Almost 66.1% profit before tax operating profit decreased profit on disposal of fixed assets, (PBT) comes from non-operating significantly by 46.7% from year Interest on bank deposit, income like, profit on disposal of 2014-15 due to lower sales dividend income etc. Decreasing fixed assets, Interest on bank volume. As a result, its earnings trend in interest rate will deposit, dividend income, decreased. negatively affect the earnings. interest on house building loan etc. Decreasing trend in interest rate will negatively affect the earnings. Company didn’t perform well in its core business function as according to its 2016-17 quarter three (Q3) statements, its net operating cash flow is negative.
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A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
Comparative Snapshot of Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies as on 2016-17 (9 Months Annualized) Statements
POCL MPL JOCL Comparative Investment Insights Financial Information (BDT mn): Gross Profit 1,956 1,840 1,160 POCL has the highest asset base among the three. Operating Profit 987 576 331 Based on latest 2016-17 quarter three disclosure Non-Operating Income 1,669 2,346 2,891 Profit After Tax 1,872 2,064 2,301 JOCL outperformed POCL and MPL on basis of net Assets 132,043 79,027 65,683 profit margin and growth. On the other hand, MPL Equity 9,549 9,189 17,546 has the highest ROE among the three followed by Retained Earnings 8,567 1,602 2,480 POCL and JOCL respectively. Cash & Cash Equivalent 20,682 24,027 26,025 JOCL earned the highest ROA followed by MPL and Margin: POCL respectively. So JOCL’s asset utilization Operating Profit 50.5% 31.3% 28.5% capability is the best among the three. Pretax Profit 129.0% 150.8% 263.8% Net Profit 95.7% 112.2% 198.4% POCL outperformed MPL and JOCL on core Growth (YoY): operating performance. POCL earned the highest Gross Profit 4.6% 31.8% 33.0% operating profit followed by MPL and JOCL Operating Profit -13.2% 31.6% 0.1% respectively. Pre Tax Profit 0.8% 10.6% 17.6% Currently JOCL is trading in the lowest P/E among Net Profit -0.1% 11.6% 17.5% the three followed by POCL and MPL respectively. Profitability: POCL outstripped JOCL and MPL on last twelve ROA 1.52% 2.8% 3.9% ROE 20.00% 23.0% 13.8% months stock market performance. POCL gave Non-operating Income/PBT 66.10% 84.5% 94.5% 33.9% market return. On the other hand, MPL gave Valuation Ratio: 10.0% and JOCL gave 9.2% in last twelve months. Price/Earnings 13.43 10.50 9.94 Price/BV 2.63 2.36 1.30 Price Sensitivity analysis based on projected EPS EPS (BDT) 19.05 19.08 20.84 NAV per share (BDT) 97.21 84.91 158.90 Projected Price *Dividend is based on 2015-16 yearend dividend announcement Sensitivity Analysis POCL MPL JOCL
Earning Per Share (EPS) – Quarterly Basis Current Price (27-09-2017) 247.7 199.4 205.1 POCL MPL JOCL EPS (9M’ 2016-17) 14.29 14.31 15.63
Annualized EPS 19.05 19.08 20.84
7.77 6.43
6.32 Price @8 PE 152.4 152.64 166.72
6.03
5.80
5.29
5.14
5.07
5.04 4.91
4.89 Price @10 PE 190.5 190.8 208.4
4.36
4.19
3.82
3.80
3.48
3.35
3.17
3.14 3.09 3.04 Price @12 PE 228.6 228.96 250.08 Price @14 PE 266.7 267.12 291.76
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Concluding Remarks 2015- 16 2016- 17
Source: Financial Statements & DSE News Petroleum sector is considered the most sensitive sector Latest 12 Months Market Performance of economy. Macro-economic indicators are highly sensitive to the price of petroleum products. Thus oil POCL MPL JOCL marketing companies should give more priority on
150.00% providing services to the people. Three fuel-oil
140.00% distribution companies are contributing significantly to
130.00% the total economy of the country by carrying out uninterrupted supply of petroleum products in all 120.00% remote areas of the country. Besides, these companies 110.00% are also contributing to the agricultural based economy 100.00% though its production and marketing of agrochemical 90.00% products. Government directly controls these three 80.00% companies marketing commission. So their performance Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 depends on the petroleum demands in the economy. Source: DSE & EBLSL Research Increase in petroleum demand can boost up their market performance in upcoming future.
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A Comparative Analysis on Fuel-Oil Distribution Companies of Bangladesh Date: October 5, 2017
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